# Uncertain future for diesel in EU



## GB (Apr 3, 2002)

This is an insightful article, and while I doubt the "doomsday" scenario will come to pass, it does appear that the EU is determined to level the gas/diesel playing field in Europe.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/04/are-europes-diesel-days-coming-to-an-end/



> American auto enthusiasts often bemoan the lack of diesel options offered on the US market, looking to Europe as the promised land of oil-burning efficiency. But Europe's love affair with diesel, which has been manifested in a 50%+ diesel sales mix for years, may be coming to a close. The WSJ reports
> 
> The European Commission-which has executive powers in the European Union-will propose to levy a minimum EUR20 per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted on products like gasoline, diesel, natural gas and coal starting in 2013. But it will also propose adjusting the existing legislation by gradually increasing a minimum levy on the energy content of diesel to bring it to the same level as that of gasoline starting in 2018​
> Here's the key: in addition to basing taxes on C02 emissions, the EU tax structure shift will result in fuel taxation based on energy content rather than volume alone. Accordingly, diesel's higher energy content means it will see a more dramatic increase in taxation levels. And this single common-sense proposal is unleashing an intense debate in Europe about energy, taxation and the future of the auto industry.


-Graham


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## wxmanCCM (Feb 17, 2010)

From the article...



> ...Because of generous diesel subsidies, nearly 48 percent of German cars and more than 60 percent of Austrian cars are powered by diesel. In Switzerland, where no such subsidy is in place, only about 20 percent of the cars run on diesel...


Then how do they explain the 53% take rate for diesel cars in the UK? It's my understanding that diesel fuel is, and has been, at least as expensive as gasoline in the UK.

Same with Australia ( http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/15/2873186.htm?section=business ), and diesel fuel does not have any price advantage over gasoline there ( http://www.fuelwatch.wa.gov.au/ ).

Even in the U.S., where diesel fuel prices have remained higher than RUG for several years now (and has a HIGHER federal tax than gasoline), the diesel take rate in vehicles which have a gas and diesel option is about 20% while the take rate in vehicles which have a gas and hybrid option is about 3%.

Changing the tax structure doesn't necessarily mean Europeans will stop buying diesel cars.


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## Snipe656 (Oct 22, 2009)

wxmanCCM said:


> Even in the U.S., where diesel fuel prices have remained higher than RUG for several years now (and has a HIGHER federal tax than gasoline), the diesel take rate in vehicles which have a gas and diesel option is about 20% while the take rate in vehicles which have a gas and hybrid option is about 3%.


 Where did those take rates come from? Would not mind reading more on that.


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## wxmanCCM (Feb 17, 2010)

Snipe656 said:


> Where did those take rates come from? Would not mind reading more on that.


From hybridcars.com ( http://www.hybridcars.com/hybrid-clean-diesel-sales-dashboard/march-2011.html ) for the sales of diesels and hybrids, and from manufacturers' data for total sales of each model.

Based on my calculations, here is a breakdown of hybrid and diesel models as a percentage of total sales in March 2011***8230;

Hybrids

Ford Fusion 1466/27566	= 5.3%
Lexus RX 1438/8600 =	16.7%
Toyota Camry 1437/31464	= 4.6%
Ford Escape 1195/23975	= 5.0%
Toyota Highlander 797/9828 = 8.1%
Honda Civic 441/31213 = 1.4%
Nissan Altima 545/32289 = 1.7%
Lincoln MKZ 615/3138 =	19.6%
Cadillac Escalade 127/1201 =	10.6%
Chevy Tahoe 70/17193 = 0.4%
Chevy Silverado 94/11622 = 0.8%
GMC Yukon 81/7564 = 1.1%
GMC Sierra 26/33945 = 0.08%
Mazda Tribute 34/189 =	17.2%
Lexus GS 24/431 = 5.6%
Lexus LS 9/941 = 1.0%
BMW X6 5/276 = 1.8%
BMW 7-Series 38/1027 = 3.7%
Chevy Malibu 0/15551 = 0%
Mercedes ML 0/2792 = 0%

Total 8442/260805 = 3.2%

Diesel

VW Jetta 4753/16969	=	28.0%
BMW X5 554/2010 =	27.6%
Audi A3 249/576 =	43.2%
Audi Q7 373/739 =	50.5%
VW Golf 888/1532 =	58.0%
Mercedes GL 426/2351 =	18.1%
BMW 3-Series 291/8503 = 3.4%
Mercedes E-Class 248/6107 = 4.1%
Mercedes ML 291/2792 =	10.4%
VW Touareg 202/486 =	41.6%
Mercedes R 64/315 =	20.3%

Total 8339/42380	=	19.7%


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## magbarn (Jan 28, 2003)

wxmanCCM said:


> Diesel
> 
> VW Jetta 4753/16969	=	28.0%
> BMW X5 554/2010 =	27.6%
> ...


Wow, that's pretty dismal for 335d sales. I'm starting to doubt more the possibility of a F30 diesel. I think we'll see the 4 banger 328i, 6 turbo 335i, and a hybrid variant as F30 powertrains.


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## Snipe656 (Oct 22, 2009)

Thanks for the data.


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## wxmanCCM (Feb 17, 2010)

magbarn said:


> Wow, that's pretty dismal for 335d sales. I'm starting to doubt more the possibility of a F30 diesel. I think we'll see the 4 banger 328i, 6 turbo 335i, and a hybrid variant as F30 powertrains.


True, but the 335d sales have generally been on an upswing this year (up 33.8% for the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same quarter in 2010), plus the data I posted include all 3-series BMWs (the 328i is clearly the most popular 3-Series BMW by a wide margin). According to data from Jonathan Spira, the sales of the 335d have been similar to the 335i.

And one point that's abundantly clear here is that if the U.S. consumers aren't interested in diesels in general as some of the car manufacturers continue to preach, they REALLY aren't interested in hybrids (other than possibly the Prius, which is admittedly an unqualified success). If you'll note, Mercedes-Benz sold a modest 291 of their BlueTec diesel ML SUVs in March, but sold ZERO hybrid MLs and have only sold one through the first quarter!


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## Snipe656 (Oct 22, 2009)

I remember reading in here how a rather large percentage of hybrids sold in the states goes to government entities. Wonder how true that is and how much it changes the sales numbers if they were omitted.


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## Tedj101 (Nov 24, 2009)

magbarn said:


> Wow, that's pretty dismal for 335d sales. I'm starting to doubt more the possibility of a F30 diesel. I think we'll see the 4 banger 328i, 6 turbo 335i, and a hybrid variant as F30 powertrains.


Actually, it isn't. That is a comparison of all 3 series sales vs. the 335d. The 328i dominates 3 series sales and there is no diesel equivalent in this country. The only diesel to compare against is the 335d which costs substantially more than a 328i so the comparison is not apples to apples.

The appropriate comparison would be the 335i sedan to the 335d sedan. While I have no current numbers, about a year ago some data was posted on this board that indicated that the 335d was then selling at a rate pretty comparable to the 335i.


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## wxmanCCM (Feb 17, 2010)

One more point about the "thetruthaboutcars" article in the OP...the regulators need to take the full "well-to-wheels" emissions of each fuel into account.

According to USEPA, gasoline produces 8788 grams of CO2 per gallon, while diesel produces 10,084 grams of CO2 per gallon. HOWEVER, according to a Toyota study (and Toyota could hardly be called a big diesel proponent), refining gasoline produces 427 grams MORE CO2 equivalent (CO2e includes other greenhouse gases such as methane and N2O) than the refining of diesel fuel (ULSD), so in effect diesel produces more CO2e per gallon WTW than gasoline but the margin is smaller than what is contained in the fuel itself.

A MIT study calculated that there are 564 grams more CO2e per gallon of gasoline produced in the refining process than is produced by refining diesel fuel (ULSD).

I didn't see anything in the referenced article that appeared to take this into account.


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## GB (Apr 3, 2002)

wxmanCCM said:


> One more point about the "thetruthaboutcars" article in the OP...the regulators need to take the full "well-to-wheels" emissions of each fuel into account.
> 
> According to USEPA, gasoline produces 8788 grams of CO2 per gallon, while diesel produces 10,084 grams of CO2 per gallon. HOWEVER, according to a Toyota study (and Toyota could hardly be called a big diesel proponent), refining gasoline produces 427 grams MORE CO2 equivalent (CO2e includes other greenhouse gases such as methane and N2O) than the refining of diesel fuel (ULSD), so in effect diesel produces more CO2e per gallon WTW than gasoline but the margin is smaller than what is contained in the fuel itself.
> 
> ...


My impression after reading the TTAC article and commentary is that the EU regulators are more concerned about increasing the number of gas-powered vehicles in Europe to keep the oil companies happy (more balanced gas/diesel consumption) and were only using the emissions "facts" to force the marketplace to adjust accordingly. Reminds me in some ways of the US ethanol situation.

-Graham


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## TXPearl (Apr 16, 2010)

wxmanCCM said:


> One more point about the "thetruthaboutcars" article in the OP...the regulators need to take the full "well-to-wheels" emissions of each fuel into account.
> 
> According to USEPA, gasoline produces 8788 grams of CO2 per gallon, while diesel produces 10,084 grams of CO2 per gallon. HOWEVER, according to a Toyota study (and Toyota could hardly be called a big diesel proponent), refining gasoline produces 427 grams MORE CO2 equivalent (CO2e includes other greenhouse gases such as methane and N2O) than the refining of diesel fuel (ULSD), so in effect diesel produces more CO2e per gallon WTW than gasoline but the margin is smaller than what is contained in the fuel itself.
> 
> ...


If emissions is the thrust of this, you'd have to also take into account mileage differences. Using the 335 as an example, the diesel gets about 25% better mileage vs the gas version. So on a per mile basis, the 335d would produce less CO2 than the 335i.


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## listerone (Jul 21, 2009)

The same people who recently decided that Roman Polanski "had suffered enough" are now in the process of f****ing up one of the few things they do right.As one current (or former..can't recall which) President/Prime Minister of a former Soviet Bloc country once said "the new Greens are the old Reds".


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## stoked335d (Jan 4, 2010)

There is no need to worry about diesels coming to States unless BMW pushes for more hybrids. The reason is CAFE MPG required by the govt. Not sure why 4 cyclinder d engines are not coming here to increase overall mpg for the fleet.


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