# Death of the diesel vehicles?



## Flyingman (Sep 13, 2009)

Folks, I was recently in a Global Oil Industry call, (mainly dealing with Europe specific issues), but it covered the global industry.

They are expecting/predicting that come 2020 the "de-dieselization" will reach a tipping point and we will see a rapid drop in sales of diesel vehicles (cars and small trucks). The impact will be the more developed countries first, like Europe, US, Asia while less developed countries will peak later and decline. 

Obviously they are expecting the EV/Hybrids to take up the slack.

Diesel production will peak in 2020 and then start declining and gasoline will peak in 2023 and start declining.

They say Fuel Economy is the main driver for the drop in demand for these fuels.

New mobility will drive transition away from pure gasoline and diesel passenger cars while trucking will lag behind.

Guess I'll start thinking about what I'll be replacing my diesels with!

If true I suspect we won't be finding anymore BMWs, MBs or other European makes offering any Diesel Cars in the US and it is already starting to drop in Europe.

They say it is more of stigma than actual hard data. Diesel is "dirty".


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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

The market for EV's in Europe is nearly non-existent - recent estimate was .6%. Wish them luck the next time you're on the call.


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

Pierre Louis said:


> The market for EV's in Europe is nearly non-existent - recent estimate was .6%. Wish them luck the next time you're on the call.


Depends upon the country. Norway has massive incentives, and expect to reach 50% new car sales in a few years.


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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

floydarogers said:


> Depends upon the country. Norway has massive incentives, and expect to reach 50% new car sales in a few years.


Makes sense :eeps:. Norway is cold as can be and EV's are poor performers in cold climates. Why would they even want to warm things up ha ha.


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## Doug Huffman (Apr 25, 2015)

floydarogers said:


> Depends upon the country. Norway has massive incentives, and expect to reach 50% new car sales in a few years.


Norway has a Scandinavian Socialist economy.


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> The market for EV's in Europe is nearly non-existent - recent estimate was .6%. Wish them luck the next time you're on the call.


Wait until Germans, Renault, PSA get mileage practical. Then centralized EU starts giving incentives. 
Not much different than what we do, except we subsidize other industries.

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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Doug Huffman said:


> Norway has a Scandinavian Socialist economy.


We do same ****, just in different industries.

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## Flyingman (Sep 13, 2009)

It has already started. Of course the European Economy is not doing so well either.

Diesel Car Market in Europe & EFTA in 2018 (First Half)

The European new car market for diesel engine cars contracted by 16% to 3,116,2001 cars during the first half of 2018. During the first semester of 2017, over 600,000 more diesel cars were sold in the European Union and EFTA countries than during the first six months of 2018.

The market share of diesel cars in the European Union and EFTA countries fell from 45.2% during the first half of 2017 to 36.5% during the first six months of 2018. The market share of petrol cars increased by 7% to 56% of the European new car market during the first half of 2018.

*The move away from diesel cars due to environmental concerns and uncertainty about future regulations (and related car valuations) was Europe wide. During the first half of 2017, diesel car sales were down in all EU and EFTA countries except Rumania, Bulgaria and Estonia. At the same time, the total European new car market expanded by nearly 3%.
*
Diesel Car Sales per EU and EFTA Country in 2018 (Q2 & HY)

New diesel passenger vehicle registrations per EU and EFTA countries during the second quarter of 2018 and the first half of 2018 were as follows according to the ACEA:

Market Q2/2018 Q2/2017 Change HY 2018 HY2017 Change 
AUSTRIA 42,116 48,749 -13.6 79,995 95,275 -16.0 
BELGIUM 57,499 73,286 -21.5 119,746 150,021 -20.2 
BULGARIA 5,392 5,184 4.0 10,202 9,751 4.6 
CZECH REPUBLIC 23,876 28,971 -17.6 45,555 56,585 -19.5 
DENMARK 21,114 23,520 -10.2 41,372 44,612 -7.3 
ESTONIA 3,609 3,376 6.9 6,758 6,411 5.4 
FINLAND 8,242 9,914 -16.9 16,723 21,068 -20.6 
FRANCE 253,154 287,540 -12.0 479,202 543,985 -11.9 
GERMANY 307,009 378,129 -18.8 590,775 738,757 -20.0 
GREECE 11,216 11,898 -5.7 21,718 22,252 -2.4 
HUNGARY 9,159 9,645 -5.0 16,618 17,944 -7.4 
IRELAND 7,939 9,508 -16.5 48,315 60,222 -19.8 
ITALY 285,490 318,232 -10.3 602,329 642,964 -6.3 
LATVIA 1,781 2,624 -32.1 3,493 4,398 -20.6 
LITHUANIA 2,369 2,526 -6.2 4,293 4,814 -10.8 
NETHERLANDS 14,858 20,035 -25.8 35,960 39,849 -9.8 
POLAND 33,508 34,466 -2.8 65,956 68,710 -4.0 
PORTUGAL 36,959 40,186 -8.0 71,097 77,739 -8.5 
ROMANIA 12,834 12,403 3.5 26,200 24,842 5.5 
SLOVAKIA 11,460 12,854 -10.8 22,868 25,456 -10.2 
SLOVENIA 6,319 9,284 -31.9 13,065 18,096 -27.8 
SPAIN 141,068 175,241 -19.5 271,734 333,227 -18.5 
SWEDEN 56,961 53,915 5.6 93,615 100,945 -7.3 
UNITED KINGDOM 187,998 253,467 -25.8 428,612 613,985 -30.2 
EUROPEAN UNION 1,541,930 1,824,953 -15.5 3,116,201 3,721,908 -16.3 
EU15 1,431,623 1,703,620 -16.0 2,901,193 3,484,901 -16.7 
EU (New Members) 110,307 121,333 -9.1 215,008 237,007 -9.3 
NORWAY 7,292 10,515 -30.7 13,578 20,145 -32.6 
SWITZERLAND 25,501 31,778 -19.8 48,219 59,567 -19.1 
EFTA 32,793 42,293 -22.5 61,797 79,712 -22.5 
EU + EFTA 1,574,723 1,867,246 -15.7 3,177,998 3,801,620 -16.4 
EU15 + EFTA 1,464,416 1,745,913 -16.1 2,962,990 3,564,613 -16.9 
Source: ACEA


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## Flyingman (Sep 13, 2009)

https://www.motor1.com/news/270027/diesel-sales-dropping-in-europe/

Europe has been diesel's biggest market since the 1980s, but demand is dropping rapidly.

We've known for quite some time that consumers' confidence in diesels is dwindling, but now we have the numbers to back it up. Demand for diesels in Europe dropped dramatically in the first half of 2018 as governments up taxes and push buyers in the direction of electric alternatives over pollution concerns, causing a fall in resale values for diesel cars.

The market share for diesel cars on the Old continent at the start of 2017 was 42.5 percent, but just a year later at the start of 2018 that figure had dropped to 36.5 percent, according to the IEA. During that time sales dropped by 16 percent, with just 3.12 million units being shifted.

The decline was even more noticeable in Britain, with sales dropping by 30 percent. In Germany, the home of some of the world's biggest diesel car producers like Volkswagen and BMW, sales dropped by an even bigger 31.1 percent ***8211; a fall from 41.3 percent a year ago.

Because of the slump in diesel car sales, sales of diesel itself has also dropped. Sales of the fuel dropped by 115,000 barrels per day in August compared to the previous month. That has also caused prices at the pumps to go up.

Consumers' dissatisfaction with diesel began back in 2015 with the revelation of the Volkswagen emissions cheating scandal, or Dieselgate as it became known.

As a result, a number of manufacturers, including Volkswagen, have begun a change to all-electric car lineups. What's more, a number of European cities, including Berlin, London, and Paris, have started to put into place bans for diesel cars in curb pollution.

All of this marks a massive shift for the European car market. Since the 1980s, Europe has been the biggest market for diesel cars, with governments previously backing the high-efficiency engines to curb oil consumption and limit carbon emissions ***8211; a radically different outlook to what governments and manufacturers have today.


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## Flyingman (Sep 13, 2009)

Why don't they install the DEF systems in Europe like they do here?:dunno:


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## Flyingman (Sep 13, 2009)

https://www.wardsauto.com/engines/electrified-vehicle-sales-gain-ground-europe

Just reading the writing on the wall!:bigpimp:


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## Enthusiast 456 (Jun 23, 2014)

I'm keeping mine. BMW won't be selling me a new car at the end of my lease. I'm going to buy it (it'll have less than 50K miles) and drive it as long as I can. Only exception would be if they have a leftover 2018 328d, I'd consider that.

I looked at the 340e but am not impressed. Hundreds of pounds more weight, and it only gets 33 mpg. BFD.


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

Flyingman said:


> Why don't they install the DEF systems in Europe like they do here?:dunno:


$

They probably use DEF on the larger vehicles.

M-B has also stopped selling diesel passenger cars and SUV's in the U.S. They never offered a diesel here on their Metris mid-size van. The big Sprinter's still have diesels, though.

The only Old World (European/British/Scandinavian) SUV available in the U.S. with a diesel engine now is a Range Rover.

The problem with diesels is the cost of getting them to pass the new EU and US emission regulations. DEF solved the NOx problem with diesels. But, now they're tightening up on soot emissions. The solution is the diesel particulate filter (DPF). They're expensive, and have a lot of warranty claims, which seem to be associated with short-duration, low-speed driving.

Part of solving the NOx problem was lowering the compression ratio of modern diesel engines. That reduced efficiency. DPF's restrict the exhaust flow, also lowering efficiency. The widespread use of turbochargers and direct injection on gasoline engines have improved their efficiency. So, the incentive to switch from a gasoline powered vehicle to a diesel powered one is now less that it was twenty years ago.

Diesel powered passenger cars still get significantly better MPG that corresponding gasoline power passenger cars. But, MPG is a measure of fuel economy, not fuel consumption. Fuel consumption and fuel economy are reciprocals of each other. As the MPG of each of these engine technologies goes up, the differences in MPG between them become less relevant. Every time my tree-hugging sister-in-law brags about her Prius getting 50 MPG, I show her this graph and say "So what?" As the efficiency of gasoline engines get better and that of diesel engines gets worse due to tightening of emission regulations, the same will apply to diesels.


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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

Flyingman said:


> https://www.wardsauto.com/engines/electrified-vehicle-sales-gain-ground-europe
> 
> Just reading the writing on the wall!:bigpimp:


There will be people who know the difference and still buy diesels if they are available in Europe and North America.

PL


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## FredoinSF (Nov 29, 2009)

Flyingman said:


> Why don't they install the DEF systems in Europe like they do here?:dunno:


They have it. It's called AdBlue over there.

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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Flyingman said:


> Why don't they install the DEF systems in Europe like they do here?:dunno:


Until 2009 there was substantial difference between NOx levels in the US (stricter, due to CARB requirements) and EU. In 2009 with Euro V that difference is not as big, so some Euro diesels had DEF (called AdBlue) and most didn't. However, with Euro VI norms that difference is almost non existent, so all Euro diesels have DEF. Thing is that most Euro engines are 2.0 liters and smaller and cars are smaller. So difference in consumption doesn't justify complexity of diesels anymore. Also, most gasoline engines in Europe now run on LPG. Everyone I know in Europe that has gas engine also has "autogas" installation. Price of autogas is around 50% of 95 octane gas. That seriously undermines diesel.

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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

edycol said:


> Until 2009 there was substantial difference between NOx levels in the US (stricter, due to CARB requirements) and EU. In 2009 with Euro V that difference is not as big, so some Euro diesels had DEF (called AdBlue) and most didn't. However, with Euro VI norms that difference is almost non existent, so all Euro diesels have DEF. Thing is that most Euro engines are 2.0 liters and smaller and cars are smaller. So difference in consumption doesn't justify complexity of diesels anymore. Also, most gasoline engines in Europe now run on LPG. Everyone I know in Europe that has gas engine also has "autogas" installation. Price of autogas is around 50% of 95 octane gas. That seriously undermines diesel.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Interesting, thanks for introducing LPG into the conversation.

No, everyone in the EU does not have an LPG fitted car.
Both gasoline and diesel cars can be fitted with LPG.
Saying that diesel is complex is a false comparison since new gassers and LPG added cars can be viewed as at least as complex, never mind hybrid complexity and cost.
Many who use diesel in North America like the extended range, which a pure LPG car doesn't have.
The lack of severe taxes in North America on fuel compared to the EU makes LPG pricing close to gasoline and diesel per gallon, while LPG contains/has fuel economy that is 20% lower than gasoline, never mind how seriously better diesel is.

The only thing that makes LPG attractive is a better environmental footprint, probably similar to fossil-produced electricity I would imagine, at a similar cost.

I'm still waiting to figure out solar panels for my house that wouldn't cost more than they are worth or be an easy install on my roof. Would also wait for a true free market to appear absent government manipulation, subsidies, and legal abuse. Patience pays off.... sometimes.

PL


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> Interesting, thanks for introducing LPG into the conversation.
> 
> No, everyone in the EU does not have an LPG fitted car.
> 
> ...


Lpg proved much more simple. When I say complexity, I am talking with SCR and DPF in mind. Take into consideration that price of Opel Corsa, Ford Fiesta or VW Polo seriously goes up with added SCR and DPF. Also, I have never seen lpg on diesel, it just doesn't make sense. And yes, consumption on lpg goes up a bit, and cold morning start has to be on gas not lpg. 
Of course, price of liter is what drives all this. You are right, it doesn't make sense here. But that also brings a question how justifiable diesel is in the US. When gallon is $6-7 like in Europe, every added mpg means a lot. When it is $2.50, well things are different.

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## Doug Huffman (Apr 25, 2015)

Specific energy content of LPG is much below gasoline or diesel, thus its specific mileage.

In re solar panels. I read a court case from Southern California with $100,000 at stake. The suit was against a neighbor whose trees - long predating the solar installation - shaded the solar panels. I don***8217;t recall the outcome, only the expectation.

Alternative energy is just like alternative medicine. Scepticism is the chastity of the mind. (George Santayana. See my .sig)


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Doug Huffman said:


> Specific energy content of LPG is much below gasoline or diesel, thus its specific mileage.
> 
> In re solar panels. I read a court case from Southern California with $100,000 at stake. The suit was against a neighbor whose trees - long predating the solar installation - shaded the solar panels. I don***8217;t recall the outcome, only the expectation.
> 
> Alternative energy is just like alternative medicine. Scepticism is the chastity of the mind. (George Santayana. See my .sig)


Mpg of lpg vehicles is now within 5%. 
Otherwise if mpg was "much" lower no one would buy lpg. 
I was driving my brothers Fiat 500 that came with lpg installation from factory. It works 10 seconds in the morning on gas, than automatically switches to lpg. Ltr per 100km difference is not noticeable unless one takes calculator. However, I was paying 60% less for lpg, so it is no brainer. My brother has 20 vehicles in his small business fleet, all diesels with no SCR but with DPF. Once they are not commercially viable he is moving to gas engines with preinstalled lpg.

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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

edycol said:


> Mpg of lpg vehicles is now within 5%.
> Otherwise if mpg was ***8220;much***8221; lower no one would buy lpg.
> I was driving my brothers Fiat 500 that came with lpg installation from factory. It works 10 seconds in the morning on gas, than automatically switches to lpg. Ltr per 100km difference is not noticeable unless one takes calculator. However, I was paying 60% less for lpg, so it is no brainer. My brother has 20 vehicles in his small business fleet, all diesels with no SCR but with DPF. Once they are not commercially viable he is moving to gas engines with preinstalled lpg.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


All well and good, but this is pure irony that you are arguing for LPG being 5% less efficient (yes, according to the EPA for a 2019 Chevy Impala CNG vs gasoline) but a diesel Jaguar XE gets over 28% better fuel economy than its gasoline equivalent. Given how EPA works by underestimating diesels' fuel efficiency, the difference is probably more like 50% - and that is with full DPF and SCR.

PL


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## robnitro (Aug 3, 2016)

Lowering the compression ratios was for reduced nox, but it drops efficiency and increases soot production. 


Yeah, they are tightening down again on soot from diesels but wait until they start doing dpf for gasoline engines. Gasoline engines, especially DI, create a lot of very small particles which are much more harmful than the bigger diesel soot.

Now the biggest joke is the issue of electric car charging... With the grids as loaded as they are, how will they fare with more and more ev's plugged in? People also seem to forget that if you add up the energy wasted from power plant to the battery charge, it's not much cleaner than an efficient ICE engine.


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> All well and good, but this is pure irony that you are arguing for LPG being 5% less efficient (yes, according to the EPA for a 2019 Chevy Impala CNG vs gasoline) but a diesel Jaguar XE gets over 28% better fuel economy than its gasoline equivalent. Given how EPA works by underestimating diesels' fuel efficiency, the difference is probably more like 50% - and that is with full DPF and SCR.
> 
> PL


I think you are missing the point. Log in Europe is 40-60% cheaper than gas or diesel . There is no way one can save with diesel as much as with lpg. On top of that, Europeans in huge margin drive 2.0ltr and smaller engines, not V6. The consumption difference between 1.6ltr gas and diesel is not that big. 
My observation about this is to answer that lpg is also part (a big one) why diesels are struggling. Now add to that that gas doesn't have SCR and anyone who wants to save will go with gas. Adding SCR to BMW x5 is not an issue. $4000 system to car that is already $70k will have minimal price impact. Problem is that SCR for VW Polo or Opel Corsa is similar price, but let's say $3,000 bcs parts are smaller. Whenyou add $3,000 to the car that costs $18,000 is a big deal.

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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

If LPG is 40 to 60% cheaper than gasoline or diesel and diesel is 30 to 50% more efficient that makes them pretty even. I believe the bias against diesel is what is causing the current decrease in its use, and is not on It's pure merits.


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## Doug Huffman (Apr 25, 2015)

*Mea culpa! I was wrong. Apologies. 46.1 MJ/kg LPG!*

LPG has a typical specific calorific value of 46.1 MJ/kg compared with 42.5 MJ/kg for fuel oil and 43.5 MJ/kg for premium grade petrol (gasoline).


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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

Doug Huffman said:


> LPG has a typical specific calorific value of 46.1 MJ/kg compared with 42.5 MJ/kg for fuel oil and 43.5 MJ/kg for premium grade petrol (gasoline).


 good luck in applying this to the different fuels we are talking about. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_combustion?wprov=sfti1


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## wxmanCCM (Feb 17, 2010)

robnitro said:


> ...Now the biggest joke is the issue of electric car charging... With the grids as loaded as they are, how will they fare with more and more ev's plugged in? People also seem to forget that if you add up the energy wasted from power plant to the battery charge, it's not much cleaner than an efficient ICE engine.


A recent study by NREL estimates electricity consumption in the U.S. could increase by as much as 38% with "high" adoption rate of EVs:










Also, there appears to be potential climate implications with solar PV and wind-generated electricity at very high adoption, especially wind.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/10/large-scale-wind-power-has-its-down-side/


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> If LPG is 40 to 60% cheaper than gasoline or diesel and diesel is 30 to 50% more efficient that makes them pretty even. I believe the bias against diesel is what is causing the current decrease in its use, and is not on It's pure merits.


Diesel is not 30-50% more efficient. It is if you compare X5 with V8 and 35d. 
However, for BMW to keep offering and developing diesels they need to sell bunch of 318d's or 320d's in Europe. They are not 30-50% more efficient compared to 318i or 320i. 
When you start comparing small cars difference is even smaller in consumption.

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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

edycol said:


> Diesel is not 30-50% more efficient. It is if you compare X5 with V8 and 35d.
> However, for BMW to keep offering and developing diesels they need to sell bunch of 318d's or 320d's in Europe. They are not 30-50% more efficient compared to 318i or 320i.
> When you start comparing small cars difference is even smaller in consumption.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I repeat: Even the EPA says a Jaguar XE diesel is 28% more efficient mpg-wise than the gasoline equivalent. Believe what you want but in "real life" diesels exceed their EPA numbers while gassers do not....

The days of small inexpensive European cars are numbered due to regulations anyway - they will likely be just as expensive to de-smog as larger cars. Its the existence of exempt vehicles that throws the comparison out the window anyway. Light trucks and SUV's are under different fuel economy standards and pollution from them as well as millions of older vehicles is far greater than any "diesel gate" VW.

No problem spending less on an LPG Fiat - its only better because it has fewer taxes and restrictions. If your family member was truly future oriented, they would just stick with electric IMO.

PL


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

I'm not buying the vast conspiracy by the US EPA to under report fuel economy numbers for diesels. Our new X3 30i xDrive has EPA numbers of 22 MPG City and 29 MPG Highway. We recently too a rural drive of 35 miles and got 38.55 MPG (with me driving, Frau Putzer could never do that), and that was after losing about 0.6 MPG stopping by the mail box and then pulling into the garage. That's also accounting for the OB/TC MPG error. 

If diesels get better real world fuel economy, it's because they're usually being driving by "fuelies" who are using hyper-mile-ing techniques.


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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

Autoputzer said:


> I'm not buying the vast conspiracy by the US EPA to under report fuel economy numbers for diesels. Our new X3 30i xDrive has EPA numbers of 22 MPG City and 29 MPG Highway. We recently too a rural drive of 35 miles and got 38.55 MPG (with me driving, Frau Putzer could never do that), and that was after losing about 0.6 MPG stopping by the mail box and then pulling into the garage. That's also accounting for the OB/TC MPG error.
> 
> If diesels get better real world fuel economy, it's because they're usually being driving by "fuelies" who are using hyper-mile-ing techniques.


Sounds like your numbers are good for this theory. Its been true since EPA cut the numbers in the early 2000's to make it more "realistic" but they included diesels also making the difference even wider. I've posted as such with real numbers from Fuelly before as well as personal experience -s/a driving a gasoline loaner.

PL


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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

To be up to date mpg with EPA and fuelly: (I picked the highest number of vehicles among the different years)

2014 BMW 328i: EPA combined: 27; Fuelly: 25.9
2014 BMW 328d: EPA combined: 34; Fuelly: 38.9

2014 BMW 535i: EPA combined: 23; Fuelly: 21.2
2014 BMW 535d: EPA combined: 30; Fuelly: 31.7

They don't have a lot of Jaguar XE 2.0's on fuelly so the numbers aren't quite as good:
2014 Jaguar XE 2.0t: EPA combined: 24; Fuelly: 22.5
2014 Jagura XE 2.0d: EPA combined: 36; Fuelly: 32.9

I believe 2005 was still when EPA had their original numbers, before the "correction" but as I recall they were higher than what is currently on their site:
2005 Mercedes E320 EPA combined: 19; Fuelly: 21
2005 Mercedes E320 CDI EPA combined: 27; Fuelly: 29.1


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## alacey (Mar 14, 2018)

I remember reading an article not too long ago that stated the EPA fuel economy test loop was optimized to achieve the best fuel economy out of gas engines, not diesels. Hence the reason why gas engines get worse mileage in the real world and diesels do not. Not sure how true that is, but every diesel engine I have ever had always got a few mpg's better than EPA while all my gas engines were always a few mpg's lower.


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## jfxogara (Oct 26, 2012)

Pierre Louis said:


> To be up to date mpg with EPA and fuelly: (I picked the highest number of vehicles among the different years)
> 
> 2014 BMW 328i: EPA combined: 27; Fuelly: 25.9
> 2014 BMW 328d: EPA combined: 34; Fuelly: 38.9


Extremely interesting thanks!


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## wxmanCCM (Feb 17, 2010)

Actually, EPA acknowledged this trend in a 2006 technical document supporting the rule to change the old methodology of determining fuel economy to the current 5-cycle method....

"...As can be seen, *diesels appear to perform the best with respect to their label fuel economy, outperforming the label by 4.3%*. Conventional gasoline vehicles come very close to meeting their label, falling short by only 1.4%. Conventional vehicles with relatively high combined fuel economy (here assumed to be 32 mpg or more, representing the top 10% of conventional vehicles in terms of fuel economy) performed only slightly worse, falling short by 1.7%. Hybrids fall short by a much larger margin, 8.2%. Thus, the greater shortfall seen with hybrids appears to be more related to hybrid technology than to simply high levels of fuel economy.

With respect to the mpg-based label values, diesels still perform the best of the four types of vehicles, now exceeding their label values by 18%...." (Page 8)

"...We also are finalizing an additional downward adjustment to fuel economy estimates within the 5-cycle method. We put in place a downward adjustment to account for effects that cannot be replicated on the dynamometer. There are many factors that affect fuel economy that are not accounted for in any of our existing test cycles. These include road grade, wind, tire pressure, heavier loads, hills, snow/ice, *effects of ethanol in gasoline*, and others. We are finalizing a 9.5% downward adjustment to account for these effects...." (Page 3)

EPA, "Final Technical Support Document - Fuel Economy Labeling of Motor Vehicle Revisions to Improve Calculation of Fuel Economy Estimates." December 2006

There's no exemption for the alcohol effects for diesel fuel in the rule. Of course, diesel fuel does not have ethanol in it, so that accounts for at least some of the discrepancy.

_Consumer Reports_ reportedly got 0.7 mpg better than the official mileage ratings for diesels, while getting 0.7 mpg lower than the official mileage ratings for gassers:

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...accurate-helpful-unlike-2005-consumer-reports

Also, _Emissions Analytics_ reports that of the diesel vehicles it's tested in real-world conditions, the diesels have averaged 7.5% higher than the official rating, while getting 3.7% lower than the official ratings on the gasoline versions of those same vehicles, albeit a rather small sample size - 4 vehicles.


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> To be up to date mpg with EPA and fuelly: (I picked the highest number of vehicles among the different years)
> 
> 2014 BMW 328i: EPA combined: 27; Fuelly: 25.9
> 2014 BMW 328d: EPA combined: 34; Fuelly: 38.9
> ...


So basically what you arguing is that European drivers should look at these numbers, not their experience when deciding what to buy? In a country that has completely different driving conditions, comparing engines that make at best 5% of sale in EU. Putting on a side source. 
One cannot make this **** up.

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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> I repeat: Even the EPA says a Jaguar XE diesel is 28% more efficient mpg-wise than the gasoline equivalent. Believe what you want but in "real life" diesels exceed their EPA numbers while gassers do not....
> 
> The days of small inexpensive European cars are numbered due to regulations anyway - they will likely be just as expensive to de-smog as larger cars. Its the existence of exempt vehicles that throws the comparison out the window anyway. Light trucks and SUV's are under different fuel economy standards and pollution from them as well as millions of older vehicles is far greater than any "diesel gate" VW.
> 
> ...


Most cars in Italy for example are sold lpg. My brother drives also our joint Land Cruiser we use for some off road stuff, which is diesel. He mostly had diesels and also has BMW F30 525d. However, next BMW will be gas, because guess what? Even BMW now comes with lpg factory ready installation. 
Point is that, no, things are not going to that direction. Lpg is economically more viable bcs of expense at the end and due to the fact that it is far less complex than diesel. 
Now, I personally wouldn't buy lpg, but in Europe, at least, before EV becomes practical enough, gas and lpg is going to be first choice. 
This seems to me more attempt to justify your decision than to seriously talk. 
In the end of the day, not sure how those 28% of Jaguars mpg add up compared to reliability.

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## Pierre Louis (Oct 23, 2011)

Many Americans couldn't care less about the extra cost, it seems, of a 20 mpg car due to how the market and taxes are here. Italians certainly are in different circumstances so that is a given. The efficiency of LPG as well as convenience was part of the conversation, but LPG's environmental impact was acknowledged as being similar to fossil powered EV's. Again, thanks for bringing up the topic.

PL


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## Stevieg0515 (Oct 23, 2018)

Flyingman said:


> https://www.motor1.com/news/270027/diesel-sales-dropping-in-europe/
> 
> Europe has been diesel's biggest market since the 1980s, but demand is dropping rapidly.
> 
> ...


I don***8217;t think diesel will be gone, if they were going to be than Land Rover wouldn***8217;t of just came out with a new Diesel engine line up in the US, they are trying to sell more diesels in the US actually. And I hate when people say electric cars aren***8217;t as polluting. A gas or diesel car from production to end of life emits less of a carbon foot print than an electric car and a hybrid car since they make such a big carbon foot print to be made the less carbon they make over their life span still doesn***8217;t offset how much of a carbon foot print to make them. Never mind how horrible their batteries are the environment. And electric cars are still dirty and I hate how it is marketed for people to not think that. The electricity they get comes from somewhere that is emitting carbon to makensaid electricity. Unless they are getting all their electricity from a solar farm or charging their car with just solar panels from their house then it is still dirty. People think just becausebeletric cars don***8217;t have a tail pipe means they are zero emissions which technically yes they then selves don***8217;t emit emissions but where they get their energy from does. And they don***8217;t tell peeple that the carbon foot print it takes to make them and their batteries still makes them emit more carbon over their lifetime than a gasoline or diesel car, truck or suv. I personally think that they should make hybrid turbo diesels because they already get better gas mileage than regular cars and some of them get almost as good gas mileage as hybrid cars so if they made hybrid diesels then I bet they would get at least 80+ mpg because diesel isn***8217;t as dirty as a lot of people think it is. With the emission systems that yes are a pain in the bass but they make them wicked clean plus diesel isn***8217;t as refined as gasoline so that right there makes even less of a carbon foot print. If they made diesel hybrids with the fuel mileage they would get then I bet in the lifetime of the vehicle it would actually offset and emit less carbon than the gasoline hybrids and electric cars. Plus it would have a crazy amount of torque. Just my opinion


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## edycol (Jul 8, 2015)

Pierre Louis said:


> Many Americans couldn't care less about the extra cost, it seems, of a 20 mpg car due to how the market and taxes are here. Italians certainly are in different circumstances so that is a given. The efficiency of LPG as well as convenience was part of the conversation, but LPG's environmental impact was acknowledged as being similar to fossil powered EV's. Again, thanks for bringing up the topic.
> 
> PL


Problem is that we in the US are not going to get diesel if there is no sale in Europe. Thing that keeps Jaguars V6 in life is bunch of 1.6 and 2.0hdi engines sold in Europe on PSA side and TDCi on Ford side. Once that goes down, so does PSA/Ford V6 and it's variants available in Jaguar, Land Rover etc.

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