# Prepare for tough times in the car business



## ERIK J (Feb 26, 2008)

Im safe here at VW, our stocks actually went up today!
That and I do all the warranty paperwork... so my paycheck comes right out of the German pockets.


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## Beergoggles (Oct 9, 2008)

What's the old Chinese curse? "May you live in interesting times!"

Global auto market may "collapse" in '09 - J.D. Power


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## x54.4blue (Sep 17, 2005)

philippek said:


> That's referencing the plan to blow out the 08s. The 09 plan is the same for now--stop production, like they're doing by shutting down Leipzig for 4 days a month.


I was hoping for dealer cash on 2009 and better lease rates, my current lease ends in about 10 days


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## rgr887 (Feb 27, 2006)

*Say it slowly...economic depression,right here and now!*

Me thinks that 700 billion Fed bail-out is too little, too late,
Wall St. in 2 weeks has lost alittle over a QUARTER of it's value!
Startling, sad and sobering truth is, we are really only going to
see it get WORSE, before it gets any better. We are SO there! 
Hold on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride til 2009.


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## soupcon (Sep 13, 2008)

so what's everybody's prediction on where rates/incentives will go next month?


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## wyb (Jul 10, 2008)

erdoran said:


> Prophetic, isn't it?
> 
> One of my friends who has been a realtor for 20+ yrs says that most of the people in her office (large. well-established real estate company) are looking for second (or other) jobs because nobody is doing any business.
> 
> IMHO those who own will hold onto their cars, those who lease may (or may not) look at used when their lease is up. I'd predict used, especially late model used, might see an increase relative to new car sales.


+1

But on the lease returns, I am not sure that they will look at used - unless it's their own lease return. Perhaps... I expect to see lots of lease returns jumping to marques with better residuals - some will obviously turn into buyers and some will lease again - perhaps a smaller model, or one with less options.

I work near a very popular, and in my opinion, over-priced watering hole and restaurant - every day except Friday, their parking lot is a lot less overflowing than it was a year ago. The economies will come in many ways - eating out less, changing shopping habits - whatever it takes.

I guess we are relatively happy that as the belts get tightened, my industry actually gets MORE business - as it is more cost effective than other ways to promote a business - and it is trackable. Which actually means we are experiencing more business as times get tougher. :dunno:


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## sdbrandon (Mar 18, 2006)

I agree the car industry will go south for a while. No dealership is immune.

Most new car purchases are based on consumer sentiment. If sentiment is low, folks will hold onto cars longer before replacing.

The dealerships that will survive will be a fraction of the size they once were and many of their staff will be let go.


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## Kamdog (Apr 15, 2007)

bmwKbiker said:


> Sooner of later the average Joe is going to wake-up and realize that acquiring a new car every 2 or 3 years doesn't make a lot of financial sense.
> Until the current vehicle costs more a month to maintain than an new car payment, a new car isn't a necessitity, or even fisically wise.


I have been doing this for over 30 years. I buy the right car for my circumstance and drive it into the ground. Generally, I get about 8 or 9 years out of a car, and about 150K miles.


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## TheCritic (Sep 6, 2008)

sdbrandon said:


> I agree the car industry will go south for a while. No dealership is immune.


Mini dealerships seem to be, so far at least!

VW-guy, I can't get a handle on how VW is doing. The dealership in my area of LA county was shuttered about a year ago leaving only 2 options anywhere nearby, one with a very bad reputation.

We hear they're doing great internationally but are also on the verge of being taken over (hostile takeover, at that) by Audi/Porsche.

Can you give an insiders perspective on what the hell is going on over there?


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## mapezzul (Jun 14, 2005)

Kamdog said:


> I have been doing this for over 30 years. I buy the right car for my circumstance and drive it into the ground. Generally, I get about 8 or 9 years out of a car, and about 150K miles.


That must be nice, I drive 25k+ per year !


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## mapezzul (Jun 14, 2005)

TheCritic said:


> Mini dealerships seem to be, so far at least!
> 
> VW-guy, I can't get a handle on how VW is doing. The dealership in my area of LA county was shuttered about a year ago leaving only 2 options anywhere nearby, one with a very bad reputation.
> 
> ...


Porsche now has a majority interest in VW/Audi b/c they bought shares. There is an issue with Lower Saxony and some laws on the books but the EU may step in and allow Porsche to do its thing (if it hasn't already).

VW is the parent company of Audi.

VW is doing well compared to most brands b/c they are diversified and have many different brands, Skods, Seat, Audi, Bugatti, Bentley etc.

They also do not build fuel hungry vehicles for the most part.

We shall see though...


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## Mister Mayor (Aug 1, 2008)

:bow: Prophetic indeed. 
I wish I had been a member here at the time and seen this...then again I prolly like most others would have pooh poohed your commentary as pessimistic. 
But in light of recent and current events.....its BANG on.

Anyone and I mean anyone, who thinks this is a good time to be a car salesman or a dealership is just not living in the real world. Did anyone see the economic figures released the other day? and that was just for September, before the real impact!

We haven't even begun to feel the impact of this crisis yet. Retailers are hanging on till Christmas...waiting for a miracle that will not come, after that, it will be shutters.

And I'm usually bullish!



mclaren said:


> Thought everyone should have another look at this thread.


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## SignHere (Apr 26, 2006)

Boy, I'm glad I didn't read this thread at the beginning of the month, I might not have showed up to sell all these BMW's and pay my bills. 

The 'outlook' we all face is a lot of what you make of it, as is just about everything else in life. 

Those of us who have a good product and provide great service will thrive, while those who don't will quietly fade away. This will just provide more opportunities for 'the good guys', and everyone will benefit long term.

You can't imagine how many people I see out there buying 'stuff', taking advantage of the outstanding deals that are available right now. And it doesn't matter if you are talking BMW's, new homes, or mattresses. People here in Austin are buying!

Don't drink the Kool-Aid...it's gonna be just fine!


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## TheCritic (Sep 6, 2008)

SignHere said:


> Don't drink the Kool-Aid...it's gonna be just fine!


*But that *is* the Kool-Aid! *


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## philippek (Jul 31, 2003)

TheCritic said:


> *But that *is* the Kool-Aid! *


:beerchug: :drink:


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

SignHere said:


> You can't imagine how many people I see out there buying 'stuff', taking advantage of the outstanding deals that are available right now. And it doesn't matter if you are talking BMW's, new homes, or mattresses. People here in Austin are buying!


Not just Austin, but even in Boston. I love the deal I got on my 2008 X5 so much, I did my own informal "pull-ahead". That kool-aid tasted awfully good........


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## 240Bhp (Feb 20, 2006)

> Not just Austin, but even in Boston. I love the deal I got on my 2008 X5 so much, I did my own informal "pull-ahead". That kool-aid tasted awfully good........


Los Angeles, too. More and more of my friends are looking into property purchases within the next six months. A lot of the properties for sale around my area are actually moving. I'm going to wait a tad bit for the situation here to get worse and start buying if the deals reflect enough.

For now, I'm locking in that 2.9% for a new e90.


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## Elias (Jun 26, 2005)

I love kool-aid I invested a nice amount in the stock market about a month ago. I like to buck the trend when people are selling I buy when people are buying I sell.


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## chrischeung (Sep 1, 2002)

Elias said:


> I love kool-aid I invested a nice amount in the stock market about a month ago. I like to buck the trend when people are selling I buy when people are buying I sell.


I drove to work today, and the roads were just as clogged as a year ago. You have to think those folks are going somewhere, and its probably not to cash their social security check. I personally think we have some pent up demand building...


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## jerrykdc (May 6, 2003)

*This tells me things cannot be real good*

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/e...ry0=&fvi=1&item=320313014455#ebayphotohosting

06 650 Vert with 13K for $42.5


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