# Model 3 starts delivery, is that really the 3-series killer?



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> It's probably a great "around town" car. Because of range anxiety, I would probably stay away from trips where the round trip was going to be any more than 100-120 miles.
> 
> It cannot be one's only car, unless one is planning to rent a car for long distance drives.


At 215-mile range for base Model 3 at 50% cost of Model S, the allure can be strong to some customers even as only car.


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

sunny5280 said:


> I think Super Chargers are supposed to charge in 30 minutes.


The Super Chargers are only supposed to be used occasionally, like when you have an occasional long distance drive. Generally, as your routine, you should charge overnight at home or at work during the day.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Rebound said:


> Where's the data on that?


Real life.

Sent from my SM-G935T using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

MT is all praise for the car's handling.
http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/



> What's blanching, though, is the car's ride and handling. If anybody was expecting a typical boring electric sedan here, nope. The ride is Alfa Giulia (maybe even Quadrifoglio)***8211;firm, and quickly, I'm carving Stunt Road like a Sochi Olympics giant slalomer, micrometering my swipes at the apexes.
> ...
> Nearly-nil body roll? Magic, I'm telling you. Magic.
> ...
> At speed, it gains a laser-alertness I haven't encountered before. By happenstance, associate road test editor Erick Ayapana had penciled me into *a 2.0-liter Alfa Romeo Giulia to get here, and it feels like a wet sponge by comparison*.


Now they have me salivating. These are things that may well make it a 3 series killer. Except I don't think you can lease one, so BMW is safe. For now.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Real life.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G935T using Bimmerfest mobile app


It would be interesting to see side-by-side 1/4-mile drag race data between Model S in ludicrous mode versus Bugatti.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> MT is all praise for the car's handling.
> http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model-3/2018/exclusive-tesla-model-3-first-drive-review/
> 
> Now they have me salivating. These are things that may well make it a 3 series killer. Except I don't think you can lease one, so BMW is safe. For now.


Wow it is indeed enticing.  The news said 50 cars were produced so far, with 30 delivered to Tesla employees and VIP customers, and 20 others will be for product qual.

Maybe there will be a demo car at the factory store this weekend, if so festers will be informed!


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Mykatie said:


> Lets say there are charging stations everywhere. How long is a typical charge?


Too long. But....*[lotsa smoke]*


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

sunny5280 said:


> The problem with these 0-60 times is the battery cannot sustain such hard acceleration. The Model S may be the fastest 0-60 car but it can't sustain it.


An inconvenient truth.

I like the Model 3....um....but battery tech inhibits.

That may, prob will, change by 2020 with the intro of autonomous driving. 'Cause by then somethin's just *gotta* give and, with autonomy, nobody needs neck snappin' accel. Nobody. Ain't comfy.


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## rogersmj (Jul 13, 2017)

The early impressions from Motor Trend and the like are very positive. Sounds like the car has a great driving feel -- handles great, the steering has some feel, and of course they're quick.

No one's going to buy one of those instead of an M3, but I bet plenty of people will get one of these instead of a 330i or an A4. And at the entry price point, high-end Accord/Camry buyers could reach for one as well.

Gotta give Tesla kudos for making it happen. They're not perfect but it's amazing what they've accomplished. Just like Apple...there were smartphones before the iPhone, but they all kinda sucked. Tesla figured out how to make electric cars interesting and desirable.


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## sonofBJ (May 31, 2015)

namelessman said:


> Will prospective F30 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 instead?


It goes head to head with a Toyota and a Chevy. It's a cheap car for people who were concerned about gas prices which were very high two years ago. Not sure who it is for now. If it's anything, it's a Prius killer.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

To go back to the OP's original question is the model 3 a 3- series killer.....

Absolutely not - First of all annual global sales of the 3 series in the 3 major markets of US, Europe, & China is north of 350,000 units. These are units volume that Tesla can only dream about and will likely never achieve.

While the model 3 is a step forward in EV technology, it's very unclear how the marketplace will actually embrace it. Other than the 30 vehicles delivered yesterday and some carefully crafted articles few people have actually seen the car and voted with their actual dollars.

Yes, Tesla now has 500,000"reservations" for the model 3 but like a lot of things with Tesla there is a lot of smoke and mirrors. The very first smoke and mirrors items is the $35,000 price. If you go on the Tesla website for the model 3 there is no real information. Ok, I'd like to buy one and what about options, again no information. The only option you have is to sign up and put down a $1000 deposit. In doing some research, it looks like a model 3 with the more desirable options is not a $35K car but a $58,000 car and possibly tilting just over $60K. Hardly the "peoples"car it was intended to be.

I would speculate that the drop out rate for the reservations is going to be in the in the 60-70% range or higher. A lot of people will be shocked at what the true cost of a model 3 really is when it comes time to put actual dollars down.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

namelessman said:


> It would be interesting to see side-by-side 1/4-mile drag race data between Model S in ludicrous mode versus Bugatti.


Not a Bugatti, but it looks like he didn't need recharge, and he's bitsch slapping modded mustangs all night

https://youtu.be/ARzujfRiQ3c

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

bmwexpat said:


> To go back to the OP's original question is the model 3 a 3- series killer.....
> 
> Absolutely not - First of all annual global sales of the 3 series in the 3 major markets of US, Europe, & China is north of 350,000 units. These are units volume that Tesla can only dream about and will likely never achieve.
> 
> ...


I agree with a lot of what you are saying, with the exception of how many people are going to drop out of line because of the price. I dont think its going to be that high, simply because tesla has managed to acquire an almost "apple like" following. MANY of the people who have reservations for these are not necessarily "joe the plumber" per se. They are well heeled people looking for a second car (or third family car).

I DO agree that at least in the first year, this is NOT a 35k car. I would imagine that "many" people who are ordering these will load up on the options, and we dont know what those will cost yet. I suspect that these cars will have 10k or options on them at least, with some having 15k so I think it will be closer to 50k range (solid 3 series pricing).

To answer OPs question, my opinion on is this a 3 series killer, is this " Not for MY generation of drivers (as in age), but possible that tesla could absolutely be the "BMW" for the millenial crowd.

I am interested in one, but I would not have one as my only car ( even in a 2 car household where my wife and I both have cars ). I might consider it as a 3 car for 2 people household, as my commuter car to work. I think it would be great in that instance, personally, and my commute is between 35-40 miles each way, depending on which roads I take. 80 miles round trip. Well within spec of mileage, even for me with range anxiety.

I dont see how they save me any money over gas at this point, but with the gas hikes coming in california starting next year, and our already higher than almost everyone else prices, I could see that equation making more sense.. especially since I fall into the category of "solar user" as well. Even with solar power (mine is a lease) there is little savings over current gas pricing... but if gas goes back to 4+ dollars a gallon, then maybe I get some savings.

So... No its not a model 3 killer for most of the people that the model 3 are aimed at right now, but in 10 years? Maybe so, as we all get older and the generation that doesnt really care much about cars but loves technology gets even more buying power.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

FCBayern///M4 said:


> Not a Bugatti, but it looks like he didn't need recharge, and he's bitsch slapping modded mustangs all night
> 
> https://youtu.be/ARzujfRiQ3c
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


Watched the same video a couple of weeks ago. 0 to 100% torque in nano seconds and 4 wheel drive, yes it is fast off the line. As this was street racing did you notice that this was somewhere around an eighth of a mile, which really puts the Tesla at an advantage.

Full quarter mile and the story starts to change a bit. Go to a half mile and the Tesla gets it's ass beaten badly.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sonofBJ said:


> It goes head to head with a Toyota and a Chevy. It's a cheap car for people who were concerned about gas prices which were very high two years ago. Not sure who it is for now. If it's anything, it's a Prius killer.


Good point. At that price point for base model(that some probably will be OK with anyway) and 215-mile range, the Prius seems to be somewhat redundant.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayern///M4 said:


> Not a Bugatti, but it looks like he didn't need recharge, and he's bitsch slapping modded mustangs all night
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


That is a good video. This is another one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOj54sRI65k


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

jjrandorin said:


> To answer OPs question, my opinion on is this a 3 series killer, is this " Not for MY generation of drivers (as in age), but possible that tesla could absolutely be the "BMW" for the millenial crowd.
> 
> I am interested in one, but I would not have one as my only car ( even in a 2 car household where my wife and I both have cars ). I might consider it as a 3 car for 2 people household, as my commuter car to work. I think it would be great in that instance, personally, and my commute is between 35-40 miles each way, depending on which roads I take. 80 miles round trip. Well within spec of mileage, even for me with range anxiety.
> 
> ...


My interest on Model 3 is the simplicity of maintenance and repair, with the assumption only brakes and tires are needed for, say, 10-yr/100k miles?

Just say the battery is good for 10yr/100k, and the car has zero resale(due to battery replacement cost). The total cost of ownership(TOC) on a out-of-door Model 3 of $40k(base model) for 10yr/100k can be $50k? If so that is not bad at all compared to a F30(e.g.).

If the fuel savings is included, the TOC if Model 3 for 100k can be $10k less than F30 320i/328i, say, 4000 [email protected]$2.5. Sounds believable?


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## Mykatie (Aug 8, 2012)

This would be VERY impressive. Now we have yet to get a confirmation of the Model 3's battery pack options (hopefully later today), but if we were to speculate about a 60 kWh and a 75 kWh options, it would result in ranges of ~253 miles and ~316 miles respectively. https://electrek.co/2017/07/28/tesla-accidentally-reveals-model-3-efficiency-hinting-at-impressive-range/


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bmwexpat said:


> Watched the same video a couple of weeks ago. 0 to 100% torque in nano seconds and 4 wheel drive, yes it is fast off the line. As this was street racing did you notice that this was somewhere around an eighth of a mile, which really puts the Tesla at an advantage.
> 
> Full quarter mile and the story starts to change a bit. Go to a half mile and the Tesla gets it's ass beaten badly.


Who is racing a half mile? On the street acceleration from a stop is all that matters. Electric cars destroy internal combustion in this scenario due to the instantaneous torque.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

namelessman said:


> That is a good video. This is another one:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOj54sRI65k


TBF though, 99% of Tesla owners probably DGAF about drag racing or trying to be "Fast and Furious" wannabes.

I'm an M4 owner, and just being seen in it is enough for me. "Enthusiast"

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

jjrandorin said:


> As I moved the speed up, the mileage went down, and it would not let me slide the MPH past 70. The average speed on Interstate 15 by my home (non rush hour) is 80 MPH. The actual posted speed limit is 70 MPH and, on average, people drive about 10 MPH over. Going "fast" on this stretch of road is 90.


Y'know, 80 mph's been the defacto limit for the enthusiastic Californian.

Lately, the minimum....


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> This is great info. So does $35k base include LED headlights, leather seat, and moonroof? Those are the options that will be of interest to me.
> 
> As far as tech, it does puzzle me if BMW and now Tesla's high-priced driver techs that cost $5000 are any better than Honda sensing for $2000. So does BMW and Tesla's radar sense twice as far and twice as fast as Honda's? There seems to be no objective numbers to quantify the price differences ....


I think the seats are vegan aka faux leather.
https://electrek.co/2017/07/22/tesla-seat-options-now-vegan/

LED lights are standard.

https://heavy.com/news/2017/07/tesla-model-3-price-options-specs-cost-what/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

jjrandorin said:


> Thanks for pulling together the option costs :thumbup:
> 
> I wonder how many people know that the range quoted is given a certain speed? A few years ago I was looking into Model S and range. Tesla had a range estimator in their website. The stated range was at like 55 MPH (which no one drives on an open freeway in my area). As I moved the speed up, the mileage went down, and it would not let me slide the MPH past 70. The average speed on Interstate 15 by my home (non rush hour) is 80 MPH. The actual posted speed limit is 70 MPH and, on average, people drive about 10 MPH over. Going "fast" on this stretch of road is 90.
> 
> So, the 300 mile range was more like 150 at speeds around 80 MPH, and I always think of those numbers like EPA estimates... so I was guessing that if I had a 300 Mile range tesla model S, I would get somewhere around 120-140 miles of actual round trip range at the normal speeds I drive.


Do note that in that estimator, temp increase can lead to improved range, so SoCal and 90F+ can help a bit.

Also the % decrease in range with increased speed does seem to shrink, so 80mph probably still gives about 210-220mph(down from [email protected] and 70F on a Model S 75D), which is close to what coworkers observed in their S's(which are heavier than Model 3).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I think the seats are vegan aka faux leather.
> https://electrek.co/2017/07/22/tesla-seat-options-now-vegan/
> 
> LED lights are standard.


LED standard is cool, and are Tesla vegan seats ventilated ones?

$5500 to get the glass roof is a bit steep, but for those who need docking stations for smart phones, that price can be worth it(or not?).

My guess is since full self driving hardware is standard, the $5000 enhanced autopilot, and extra $3000 for full self driving, can be added later, right?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So the base Model S has no instrument panel, instead there is a simple shelf with mounts for a tablet. 

That has been my question for the last few years, why all the proprietary gadgets when tablets/notebooks can easily be updated?


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## SSubZero (May 11, 2017)

namelessman said:


> Ok, the factory store said Model 3 won't hit showroom until Dec. Test drive will only be available for those with reservation# and need to configure the purchase.


Yeah I don't expect to see one in a showroom anytime soon. Every one they are pumping out of the factory is already sold. They don't even need to advertise or market the thing now, they have enough pre-orders to fill to last them for *years*. Why bother trying to sell a car to someone that you can't actually deliver to until like 2020?

I'd hope to at least see a mockup of the body so I can identify them. I live in "Tesla country" (about 15 minutes from NUMI) and even here, the showrooms and dealers simply have NOTHING on the Model 3 at all.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

SSubZero said:


> Yeah I don't expect to see one in a showroom anytime soon. Every one they are pumping out of the factory is already sold. They don't even need to advertise or market the thing now, they have enough pre-orders to fill to last them for *years*. Why bother trying to sell a car to someone that you can't actually deliver to until like 2020?
> 
> I'd hope to at least see a mockup of the body so I can identify them. I live in "Tesla country" (about 15 minutes from NUMI) and even here, the showrooms and dealers simply have NOTHING on the Model 3 at all.


The website has this:
>>>
As we ramp up production, deliveries for Model 3 reservations placed *today* are not expected to be delivered until mid 2018.
>>>
I don't know whether "today" mean 7/30/17 or some other date when the web page was created. I think the production ramp will be much quicker than anticipated.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I don't know whether "today" mean 7/30/17 or some other date when the web page was created. I think the production ramp will be much quicker than anticipated.


The first test would be Q4(starting in 4-5 weeks) 5000 units/week, that milestone has to be hit first to ever get to 10000 units/week(on Model 3 only, not S + X + 3).

And 30 units delivered to employees is not really a real launch to the public ....


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## Darudis e91 (May 14, 2017)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/232399135159

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> This is great info. So does $35k base include LED headlights, leather seat, and moonroof? Those are the options that will be of interest to me.
> 
> As far as tech, it does puzzle me if BMW and now Tesla's high-priced driver techs that cost $5000 are any better than Honda sensing for $2000. So does BMW and Tesla's radar sense twice as far and twice as fast as Honda's? There seems to be no objective numbers to quantify the price differences ....


Honda Sensing standard on my '18 Odyssey - lane keeping assist OK not sa-mooth enough for these refined hands - *seriously wish for lane centering!* Adaptive cruise seems to learn with use.

Adaptive cruise seeing 2X distance as Honda would put it close to 1/4 mi.

.


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## Darudis e91 (May 14, 2017)

Darudis e91 said:


> https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/232399135159
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> So the base Model S has no instrument panel, instead there is a simple shelf with mounts for a tablet.
> 
> That has been my question for the last few years, why all the proprietary gadgets when tablets/notebooks can easily be updated?


Here it is:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Here it is:


That's one clean cut dash. :thumbup: So will the speed, fuel, etc, etc, be displayed on the tablet?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> That's one clean cut dash. :thumbup: So will the speed, fuel, etc, etc, be displayed on the tablet?


Yes - left side. Can be up to 3 vert partitions for vitals, map, whatever.

Gotta drive to know -- sure looks handy. Now, if the ride's compliant, not like bruisin' 3/4 ton, screen might work for us -- tap tap touch.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

SSubZero said:


> Yeah I don't expect to see one in a showroom anytime soon. Every one they are pumping out of the factory is already sold. They don't even need to advertise or market the thing now, they have enough pre-orders to fill to last them for *years*. Why bother trying to sell a car to someone that you can't actually deliver to until like 2020?
> 
> I'd hope to at least see a mockup of the body so I can identify them. I live in "Tesla country" (about 15 minutes from NUMI) and even here, the showrooms and dealers simply have NOTHING on the Model 3 at all.


I just saw eight of them on a car carrier


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Honda Sensing standard on my '18 Odyssey - lane keeping assist OK not sa-mooth enough for these refined hands - *seriously wish for lane centering!* Adaptive cruise seems to learn with use.
> 
> Adaptive cruise seeing 2X distance as Honda would put it close to 1/4 mi.
> 
> .


Is there a link that shows that Honda adaptive cruise can see 1/8 mile? That is 220 yards.

Is there a similar spec for BMW's adaptive cruise?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> Is there a link that shows that Honda adaptive cruise can see 1/8 mile? That is 220 yards.
> 
> Is there a similar spec for BMW's adaptive cruise?


Don't know - Odyssey max distance is way way back - many car lengths. I set it @ minimum distance, almost too much space. Gotta say, makes driving much less personal. That's a good thing.


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## daniely30 (Dec 1, 2013)

If tesla was able to recharge to 100% in even 15 min, then i can see other manufacturers scratching their heads, until then, its just an alternative 


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

daniely30 said:


> If tesla was able to recharge to 100% in even 15 min, then i can see other manufacturers scratching their heads, until then, its just *an alternative *
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


That's exactly what it is. It's folly to say it's a 3 series killer. The reality is 4 door internal combustion sedans are not in high demand due to the popularity of SUV's and the like. The Tesla 3 offers a feature unlike any car in it's class. And it's trendy. Mercedes, Audi and BMW are tried and true.


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Yes - left side. Can be up to 3 vert partitions for vitals, map, whatever.
> 
> Gotta drive to know -- sure looks handy. Now, if the ride's compliant, not like bruisin' 3/4 ton, screen might work for us -- tap tap touch.


I gotta say... if the whole instrument panel is a user-supplied tablet, that is awesome for low-cost, long-term reliability.


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## Dave 20T (Apr 7, 2013)

A tablet is a terrible design. Knobs and buttons, if not too small or numerous, are much safer.

The Tesla 3 has led me to consider a Ford Focus Electric rather than a Tesla. Does quite a bit for $29,900. A Tesla with a larger battery is not $35k but much more.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Dave 20T said:


> A tablet is a terrible design. Knobs and buttons, if not too small or numerous, are much safer.
> 
> The Tesla 3 has led me to consider a Ford Focus Electric rather than a Tesla. Does quite a bit for $29,900


That's where the autonomous driving comes in. 

Actually, it can't be that bad, because they would have received that feedback from current S and X owners. I know a few people that have these cars and that is not something they ever complain about.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

I'm very tempted to put a deposit for one of these!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> That's exactly what it is. It's folly to say it's a 3 series killer. The reality is 4 door internal combustion sedans are not in high demand due to the popularity of SUV's and the like. The Tesla 3 offers a feature unlike any car in it's class. And it's trendy. Mercedes, Audi and BMW are tried and true.


The BMW brass does not see Model 3 nor EV as folly, as the marching order is full stream ahead of all things electric at Munich.

In fact BMW just announced 2019 Mini will get electric option.

There is also speculation that a 3-series EV will be announced in Sept, if true then the world will see BMW's counterpunch to Model 3 soon.

https://www.torquenews.com/1084/tes...model-3-bmw-will-unveil-their-own-3-series-ev


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I'm very tempted to put a deposit for one of these!


Like minds think alike. . The deposit is 100% refundable, but it also contributes to interest free loan to Tesla(close to $500m so far!).


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> The BMW brass does not see Model 3 nor EV as folly, as the marching order is full stream ahead of all things electric at Munich.
> 
> In fact BMW just announced 2019 Mini will get electric option.
> 
> ...


If BMW is able to offer ~300 miles, they may do well because they'll offer leases.

But I think BMW may have a problem with pricing. The i3's range is a joke and it starts at $42K.

Definitely an exciting time for the auto industry -- electric cars, self driving cars, ...


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Like minds think alike. . The deposit is 100% refundable, but it also contributes to interest free loan to Tesla(close to $500m so far!).


That's OK by me. My $1000 is earning a whopping 0.1% right now. So I'd lose about $2 in interest if I leave it with Tesla for 2 years. (After tax it would be $1!)


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dave 20T said:


> A tablet is a terrible design. Knobs and buttons, if not too small or numerous, are much safer.
> 
> The Tesla 3 has led me to consider a Ford Focus Electric rather than a Tesla. Does quite a bit for $29,900. A Tesla with a larger battery is not $35k but much more.


Does Ford Focus Electric have a range of 100 miles, and 0-60 of close to 10 seconds? If so it is quite an expensive [email protected]$29.9k when Model 3 has much better spec than Focus Electric, for $5k price difference.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> That's OK by me. My $1000 is earning a whopping 0.1% right now. So I'd lose about $2 in interest if I leave it with Tesla for 2 years. (After tax it would be $1!)


Well Tesla pays close to 7%(including bank fees and hedging) in the last round of $850m corporate bonds, so 0% $500m from customers is a gift to Tesla.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Well Tesla pays close to 7%(including bank fees and hedging) in the last round of corporate bonds, so 0% $500m from customers is a gift to Tesla.


I put a deposit. 

The email I got says early 2019 delivery.

I hope I'm still employed by then!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> If BMW is able to offer ~300 miles, they may do well because they'll offer leases.
> 
> But I think BMW may have a problem with pricing. The i3's range is a joke and it starts at $42K.
> 
> Definitely an exciting time for the auto industry -- electric cars, self driving cars, ...


My thinking is i-cars are experimental, and BMW is ready to apply those lessons to their mainstream products.

And the Mini(and should be same for 3-series) will have gasoline, diesel, and electric, so the volume of these bread and butter product lines will normalize the cost of EV offerings for BMW.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Today I drove 160 miles. That would be very anxiety causing in 215 mile range car. But with 300 miles, I think it would be OK.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I put a deposit.
> 
> The email I got says early 2019 delivery.
> 
> I hope I'm still employed by then!


No worries, Tesla probably will need to hire 3x people by then.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> My thinking is i-cars are experimental, and BMW is ready to apply those lessons to their mainstream products.
> 
> And the Mini(and should be same for 3-series) will have gasoline, diesel, and electric, so the volume of these bread and butter product lines will normalize the cost of EV offerings for BMW.


They had the ActiveE before, but they need to solve the range problem in a big way (like a 200% improvement over where they are now).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_ActiveE


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> They had the ActiveE before, but they need to solve the range problem in a big way (like a 200% improvement over where they are now).
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_ActiveE


Yes 100-mile range(e.g. 1-series ActiveE, Focus Electric) will be no match for Model 3 which has 2x the range.

It is yet to be seen if BMW can solve the range problem, but BMW brass clearly sees the EV threat, and has rallied the whole company behind electric, so hopefully the BMW innovative minds will produce something spectacular. 

Having said that, the hardest problem for EV is energy density(more range==more battery space and weight), and BMW needs to be out-of-the-box to fit extra battery into the same chassis/engine bay for diesel/gasoline propulsion + energy source.


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

I just filled up my wife's CX-5...The gauge indicates 291 miles...I don't see what the big deal is here. Plug it in every night?


Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

FCBayern///M4 said:


> I just filled up my wife's CX-5...The gauge indicates 291 miles...I don't see what the big deal is here. Plug it in every night?
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


The big deal is that when you need to drive 300+ miles, the cx-5 can do it with a 10 min pitstop, but the tesla would need to take a nap, assuming you can even find a place to plug it in. Make sure you get AAA platinum and you should be good to go. Tesla does not recommend running the battery very low.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

mr_clueless said:


> The big deal is that when you need to drive 300+ miles, the cx-5 can do it with a 10 min pitstop, but the tesla would need to take a nap, assuming you can even find a place to plug it in. Make sure you get AAA platinum and you should be good to go.


The Tesla isn't for everyone. Same as my M4.

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayern///M4 said:


> The Tesla isn't for everyone. Same as my M4.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


With 500k units per year(similar to F3* worldwide shipment?) Tesla does plan to have Model 3 for many if not everyone.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

mr_clueless said:


> I'm very tempted to put a deposit for one of these!


Given the approximately two year lead time what would be the reason for doing so?


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> My feeling is the fear of no super chargers in non-popular routes(which are the majority at the time), and the non-fear of freely available super chargers in populated metros, are two extremes.
> 
> *The reality probably will settle somewhere in the middle, e.g. Musk promises 3x superchargers by next year, while business/workplace may not invest enough to deal with growing lines of EV waiting for plug-ins.*


Which goes back to what I said in post number 4:

"Part of that ways to go is a supporting infrastructure."



namelessman said:


> For many in metro areas though, daily radius of 100 miles(RT 200 miles) cover lots of ground, so those customers are good candidates for 300-mile EPA EVs, e.g. Model 3, or BMW's upcoming/rumored electric 3-series. This is esp. true for those with home charging, and do not have frequent trips outside of 100-mile radius(those infrequent trips can be planned with supercharger in mind).


As I said my daily driving habits, at least during the week, are inline with today's EV ranges. The issue is what happens when I step outside of their range? The technology and infrastructure are just not there yet. So I would have to use a second vehicle.

I've given this a lot of thought earlier in the year when I considered buying a Volt. From a range perspective there are no issues with it. However there were other issues:


No AWD configuration. When I visit my family in the mountains AWD is important. My parents have a step driveway which can test even an AWD vehicle in the winter. My brother has some steep roads into his community. When it snows the Prius stays home and the Jeep comes out.
Interior room. In the Volt the battery reduce cargo space thus there was not as much room for all my gear.

Other issues, like lack of fun to drive factor, may not apply to the Model 3 (if I bought the Volt it may have replaced my current Outback XT). In the end the Volt was something I considered as I'm very interested in the technology of EV's. The ability to drive all week without using any gas is very appealing (despite the fact it would never recover the purchase price). But in the end there were too many downsides. However I can see a day when an EV would be an option. Not today but perhaps in the next five years or so.


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

namelessman said:


> One daily irony is, the EV owners in our lunch crowd are shuttled by the ICEs from/to not-so-crowded charging stations in next buildings(not within walking distance), such that those freshly charged EVs can be picked up after lunch.


Thats funny!

One thing I find interesting is that Tesla has managed to do something that most brands do not, but only dream of... and that is create "brand cache". I mentioned this before, but there are absolutely a LOT of people who will look at an item simply because of who makes it... and product manufacturers do everything in their power to become one of those brands.

The fact that, even here, on a BMW board, with BMW enthusiasts, a discussion about owning a tesla is not being shot down by everyone is telling.

People who are badge conscious will consider Tesla's where they will NOT consider a hyundai, no matter the specs. These are the same people that buy BMWs / Mercs / Audi / Porsche for the badge... and like I also said before lets not pretend that they dont exist (lets not even pretend that they dont constitute the majority of the people buying those brands).

Tesla has become like BMW or Mercedes, or Apple, or Wolf / Viking / Thermador ranges, and other luxury products... at least to MANY.

They can lose this quickly if they cars they make out of the gate fall apart, so they need to get the model 3 launch right from a fit / finish perspective for the average "step up" joe / jane... but they are starting in a good place from perception.


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

Rebound said:


> Electricity for plug-in vehicles is close to "free," because electricity has to be generated to meet peak daytime demand, which is vastly lower than night time demand. Many power generation plants cannot cut back their output at night enough anyway... to the hydro plant, excess night time consumption is free (to a point, of course). And to a gas or coal-fired plant, they can only deduct power output partially at night because the plant remains hot and must be hot enough in the morning to meet the day's demands.
> 
> So the capacity of night time EV charging power exists and its cost is very low; not entirely free but it is use of excess power which is not otherwise utilized.


There are several things wrong or inaccurate in your statements and argument.
1) My PV array generates 0 (zero) power at night. So if I had an EV I would have to pay because the power is not free any more.
2) Hydro is never free. In fact, the Columbia River's flow is managed so as to provide maximum flow and hence power during the evening's peak demand time (fyi, the Columbia provides almost 1/2 the USA's hydro power.) While much hydro is "flow-of-the-river", the larger reservoirs do not "waste" energy when not needed.
3) Gas-fired turbine power plants do indeed shut down, or throttle down substantially at low demand times. That's why they're a nice choice for peaking demand: they don't use gas when not in use. Generating power from a turbine plant requires consumption of gas, so it's not free.
4) Wind is complicated - depending upon location, it's daytime (WA State) or night-time (TX). That, and seasonal variations, complicates the power distribution planning in the grids, and obviates general arguments like you have used.


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

floydarogers said:


> There are several things wrong or inaccurate in your statements and argument.
> 
> 1) My PV array generates 0 (zero) power at night. So if I had an EV I would have to pay because the power is not free any more.
> 
> ...


Obviously, power providers charge money. But you're missing the more significant point, which is that America has vast grid potential to support large numbers of electric cars, provided they are charged at night.


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

jjrandorin said:


> Tesla has become like BMW or Mercedes, or Apple, or Wolf / Viking / Thermador ranges, and other luxury products... at least to MANY.


Remind me again how much the new $30,000 Tesla with 230 hp costs?


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Rebound said:


> Obviously, power providers charge money. But you're missing the more significant point, *which is that America has vast grid potential to support large numbers of electric cars, provided they are charged at night.*


Does this grid currently exist? Wasn't CA having summertime rolling brownouts due to limits of the power grid?


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

Rebound said:


> Obviously, power providers charge money. But you're missing the more significant point, which is that America has vast grid potential to support large numbers of electric cars, provided they are charged at night.


I'm certainly not "missing the point". I'm quite aware of these load factors: I do in fact have a degree in Electrical Engineering and am a member of IEEE, etc.

But the grid (and needed improvements to it), the actual power-producing system (whatever source) and management of the grid and end-point user, are not "free" by any means.


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

Rebound said:


> Remind me again how much the new $30,000 Tesla with 230 hp costs?


There is no new 30k Tesla... there is a new 35k base price tesla that will be on average 40-50k for most people that buy them.... and it seems you missed the point I was making about "brand cache".

People are not (currently) judging tesla by a 35k base price car (which again, is actually a 44-60k car... just like all other manufacturers offer unrealistic base price for cars). People are judging tesla by the Model S and the Model X, which have sticker prices up in the 60-120k range.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Rebound said:


> Most people don't drive 220 miles in a day, and so they charge when they're at home. For long trips, you plan to use the superchargers on the route.


I see what you mean but -- like planning your route so you can stop at Bentley dealerships -- constricting.

Anyway I *did* hear that soon if not already, *Tesla pilots don' get no free juice no mo'.*

.










.


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

jjrandorin said:


> There is no new 30k Tesla... there is a new 35k base price tesla that will be on average 40-50k for most people that buy them.... and it seems you missed the point I was making about "brand cache".
> 
> People are not (currently) judging tesla by a 35k base price car (which again, is actually a 44-60k car... just like all other manufacturers offer unrealistic base price for cars). People are judging tesla by the Model S and the Model X, which have sticker prices up in the 60-120k range.


Please remind me of the thread title?


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

sunny5280 said:


> Does this grid currently exist? Wasn't CA having summertime rolling brownouts due to limits of the power grid?


No, CA had rolling summer brownouts due to market manipulation by Enron.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Rebound said:


> No, CA had rolling summer brownouts due to market manipulation by Enron.


That was about 16 years ago. I believe CA has had rolling blackouts since then.


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

sunny5280 said:


> That was about 16 years ago. I believe CA has had rolling blackouts since then.


We're having them this summer too.

Last month when I was visiting my aunt near downtown San Jose she was having rolling blackouts. She was specifically not charging her Tesla S because of it. Then she was complaining about going to places with chargers and there being a long wait (she's a new Tesla owner).


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

Rebound said:


> Please remind me of the thread title?


What does that have to do with what I said? I think you are just arguing to be arguing... because my last post was "tesla has brand cache" which is something most manufacturers dream of.

BMW and Mercedes have it as far as cars go, and so does Tesla... this is an argument in favor of tesla having an impact (which you seem to be arguing for), so why are you arguing with my point that people see them as luxury goods (thats a good thing for tesla)?


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

jjrandorin said:


> What does that have to do with what I said? I think you are just arguing to be arguing... because my last post was "tesla has brand cache" which is something most manufacturers dream of.
> 
> BMW and Mercedes have it as far as cars go, and so does Tesla... this is an argument in favor of tesla having an impact (which you seem to be arguing for), so why are you arguing with my point that people see them as luxury goods (thats a good thing for tesla)?


Because Tesla now has a starting price that's lower than my Plug-in Prius.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

FaRKle! said:


> We're having them *[rolling brownouts]* this summer too.


North o'the Golden Gate not so much. But PG&E does call to tell us that rates are spiking, if we have electricity now.


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## Zeichen311 (Mar 31, 2011)

jjrandorin said:


> ... and it seems you missed the point I was making about "*brand cache*".


Apropos of nothing, the word in this context is _cachet_ not _cache_.

On other topics, most of my points have been covered already.


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

Zeichen311 said:


> Apropos of nothing, the word in this context is _cachet_ not _cache_.
> 
> On other topics, most of my points have been covered already.


Yeah you are right.. knew the word I was looking for but certainly did not type it correctly.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

jjrandorin said:


> The fact that, even here, on a BMW board, with BMW enthusiasts, a discussion about owning a tesla is not being shot down by everyone is telling.


The true telltale signs are not offered by festers and customers, but by BMW brass themselves.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Does this grid currently exist? Wasn't CA having summertime rolling brownouts due to limits of the power grid?


There were reports that PG&E did have days where surplus energy was pumped back to the grid, so maybe if the energy can be stored somehow the brown/blackouts(which have been a lot less severe than back in the days) can be alleviated.

That brings up an interesting Tesla product, namely, wall-mounted battery that can be charged by solar.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Rebound said:


> Because Tesla now has a starting price that's lower than my Plug-in Prius.


Other posters did bring this up, namely, can Prius be obsoleted by Model 3?

Having said that, the fact that BMW is quickly(or hastily?) pushing out an electric 3-series is quite intriguing. For one it is hard to imagine BMW can do a better job than Tesla, given Tesla platform is custom built and optimized for electric.

BMW must feel enough pressure from Tesla to mobilize the whole company behind electric, but what if EV is truly a dud?!? :dunno:


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> There were reports that PG&E did have days where surplus energy was pumped back to the grid, so maybe if the energy can be stored somehow the brown/blackouts(which have been a lot less severe than back in the days) can be alleviated.
> 
> That brings up an interesting Tesla product, namely, wall-mounted battery that can be charged by solar.


Wall mounted batteries and solar charging...more cost.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

sunny5280 said:


> Wall mounted batteries and solar charging...more cost.


Tesla pilots know: It's only money.


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## Blackwood Mac (Aug 1, 2017)

I cancelled my Tesla reservation last night and bought a 4 series.

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Blackwood Mac said:


> I cancelled my Tesla reservation last night and bought a 4 series


*DUDE!*. Why didn't ya sell your reservation?

$2k at least.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Blackwood Mac said:


> I cancelled my Tesla reservation last night and bought a 4 series.


What is the thought process to get the 4 instead of Tesla?

A coworker also recently got a refund for Model 3 reservation, and got a 228i convertible, as his wife was not happy with her leased Leaf.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> *DUDE!*. Why didn't ya sell your reservation?
> 
> $2k at least.


My understanding is that purchase needs to be made by same name on reservation #.


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## Blackwood Mac (Aug 1, 2017)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> *DUDE!*. Why didn't ya sell your reservation?
> 
> $2k at least.


I thought you couldn't switch names on your reservation... well too late now plus I get my $1k back to put towards the F32.


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## Blackwood Mac (Aug 1, 2017)

namelessman said:


> What is the thought process to get the 4 instead of Tesla?
> 
> A coworker also recently got a refund for Model 3 reservation, and got a 228i convertible, as his wife was not happy with her leased Leaf.


1. I needed a car because I just returned my 2014 320i and I couldn't wait until dec/jan or whenever.

2. I can only charge at work because I am still renting so that is a hassle.

3. I personally think it would be smarter waiting a couple years until all of the upgrades come out and then pick up a used one if i'm still interested. I also think at that rate with all the upgrades it might be smarter to get an S instead.

4. The 4 series looks badass in Estoril Blue.


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## beware_phog (Mar 7, 2003)

Blackwood Mac said:


> 4. The 4 series looks badass in Estoril Blue.


This.


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## Rebound (Apr 29, 2017)

namelessman said:


> What is the thought process to get the 4 instead of Tesla?


I bought a 4-series instead of a Tesla. The 4-series is an amazing car. I love driving it!

A Tesla S is way too expensive and the new Tesla model can't be purchased for another year and a half or longer... who cares?


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> What is the thought process to get the 4 instead of Tesla?
> 
> A coworker also recently got a refund for Model 3 reservation, and got a 228i convertible, as his wife was not happy with her leased Leaf.


Only my thoughts, but the 4 is a beautiful car and more traditional which some may prefer. And if range is a factor, dino fuel wins for now. For example I drive for work, often 200+ miles. While I'd love to own a 3, I need reliable range and faster refueling.

As far as the coworker's wife, the 3 is about as different an EV from the Leaf as you can get but if she soured on the technology, it's understandable. But damn, a decently optioned MSport 230i ragtop is a lot of money!


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> If your plans are to drive one of these vehicles around town then they're possible a good choice. However if you plan to make regular trips outside or near their range that's a different story.
> 
> For example I routinely go to the mountains to ride my dirt bikes or stay with family. Charging stations are no where to be found in the national forest. Even if I stay with my family I need to recharge it overnight. An electric vehicle with a 100 mile range would not make it to the mountains without stopping to recharge the battery.
> 
> This is why I was considering a Volt or Prius Prime. I'd primarily use them under all electric power but when I have to go visit family the gasoline engine would be used most of the time.


Do you place your dirt bike in your BMW?


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Drive that Model 3 hard and you're not going to get 220 miles out of it.
> 
> Again, pure electric vehicles, from a cost perspective, aren't quite there yet. The gains we've seen in the past few years are significant but we're not there yet.


Drive a Prius like you stole it and you won't get 50 MPG either. But when you commute the opportunity to drive it quickly isn't there. So if you plan on purchasing an EV as your commute car, and let's say the range is 210 miles, and your commute is 58 miles (that is what mine is) I can get *almost *2 full days of commute before charging.


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> What if there are no Super Chargers along the route?


then you don't take that route.

Some people get the EV cars and some like yourself will fight it, it's not for everyone, but after driving the Model 75 for an hour, I get it, the speed of the car, and the fact that maintenance is lower then a combustion engine is very appealing to me.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Blackwood Mac said:


> 1. I needed a car because I just returned my 2014 320i and I couldn't wait until dec/jan or whenever.


Serious question: Would Uber/Lyft work until next year?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Eagle11 said:


> ....after driving the Model 75 for an hour, I get it, the speed of the car, and the fact that maintenance is lower then a combustion engine is very appealing to me.


Ride quality?

Noise level?


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Eagle11 said:


> then you don't take that route.
> 
> Some people get the EV cars and some like yourself will fight it, it's not for everyone, but after driving the Model 75 for an hour, I get it, the speed of the car, and the fact that maintenance is lower then a combustion engine is very appealing to me.


That may be true in theory but as I pointed out earlier in the thread the maintenance contract for the model S is a lot more than the maintenance contract from Audi.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Blackwood Mac said:


> 1. I needed a car because I just returned my 2014 320i and I couldn't wait until dec/jan or whenever.
> 
> 2. I can only charge at work because I am still renting so that is a hassle.
> 
> ...


To me the S, X, and now 3 all look like ergo mouses. . In that regard the BMW design is far more appealing than Tesla.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Only my thoughts, but the 4 is a beautiful car and more traditional which some may prefer. And if range is a factor, dino fuel wins for now. For example I drive for work, often 200+ miles. While I'd love to own a 3, I need reliable range and faster refueling.
> 
> As far as the coworker's wife, the 3 is about as different an EV from the Leaf as you can get but if she soured on the technology, it's understandable. But damn, a decently optioned MSport 230i ragtop is a lot of money!


Yes my feeling is that Model 3 should be a much better EV experience than Leaf.

And yes it is a 230i + lighting + track(for the PSS), MSRP was $44.5k but with trunk + fleet discount it was $39k + tax + fee, so it is in the ball park of lightly optioned Model 3.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> To me the S, X, and now 3 all look like ergo mouses. . In that regard the BMW design is far more appealing than Tesla.


Obviously a matter of opinion but I think the exterior and interior design of the Teslas is much cleaner and more futuristic than BMW's. And it has better Cd.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Eagle11 said:


> Do you place your dirt bike in your BMW?


Sigh. From post #4:

"I'd consider one (earlier in the year I was looking at the Chevy Volt) *but not as my sole vehicle.*"

I have nothing against EV's but right now being my sole vehicle is impractical. To answer your question: My dirt bikes are stored at my brothers place and loaded into his truck or onto a trailer. Therefore my commute to my families place can all be done in a car.

I'm speaking from a real world example and not some hypothetical. EV cars aren't there yet. They're certainly better than just a few years ago. And I hope in a few years they'll be even better than they are today. But not yet.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Eagle11 said:


> Drive a Prius like you stole it and you won't get 50 MPG either. But when you commute the opportunity to drive it quickly isn't there. So if you plan on purchasing an EV as your commute car, and let's say the range is 210 miles, and your commute is 58 miles (that is what mine is) I can get *almost *2 full days of commute before charging.


I've driven a Prius harder than grandma mode and it gets amazingly good MPG. Despite the decrease it will, mileage wise, easily exceed that of a Model 3.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

sunny5280 said:


> I've driven a Prius harder than grandma mode and it gets amazingly good MPG. Despite the decrease it will, mileage wise, easily exceed that of a Model 3.


What's your point? It's still burning gasoline.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Michael Schott said:


> What's your point? It's still burning gasoline.


The point was clearly stated in the post you quoted:

"Despite the decrease it will, mileage wise, easily exceed that of a Model 3."


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

My wife has a 328d that we bought when VW bought her Jetta Diesel back. I put a down on a Model 3, just in case. My wife loves her BMW, but I am slowly talking her into actually getting the Model 3 when we are finally contacted that they are ready to build ours. I used the new California gas tax to help persuade her....63 cents a gallon! We saw several charging stations at the Carls Jr. in Quartsite, which is about the half way point between where we live, Temecula, and where we go often, Scottsdale. 

We did get 43 mpg with the BMW on this latest trip.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

SOOT NO said:


> My wife has a 328d that we bought when VW bought her Jetta Diesel back. I put a down on a Model 3, just in case. My wife loves here BMW, but I am slowly talking her into actually getting the Model 3 when we are finally contacted that they are ready to build ours. I used the new California gas tax to help persuade her....63 cents a gallon! We saw several charging stations at the Carls Jr. in Quartsite, which is about the half way point between where we live, Temecula, and where we go often, Scottsdale.
> 
> We did get 43 mpg with the BMW on this latest trip.


BMW needs to update the diesel motor. It needs to do better given C&D observed 41 mpg with the B46.


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

mr_clueless said:


> BMW needs to update the diesel motor. It needs to do better given C&D observed 41 mpg with the B46.


I like the engine. On the same trip, we used to get 38 mpg with the Diesel Jetta.


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

SOOT NO said:


> My wife has a 328d that we bought when VW bought her Jetta Diesel back. I put a down on a Model 3, just in case. My wife loves her BMW, but I am slowly talking her into actually getting the Model 3 when we are finally contacted that they are ready to build ours. I used the new California gas tax to help persuade her....63 cents a gallon! We saw several charging stations at the Carls Jr. in Quartsite, which is about the half way point between where we live, Temecula, and where we go often, Scottsdale.
> 
> We did get 43 mpg with the BMW on this latest trip.


That 43 is on the low side, I have seen people getting as high as mid 50's, how fast were you guys driving?

At Quartzsite you will be able to do the 80% charge in 25 minutes, which is about the time it takes to refuel, bathroom break and getting a drink in a normal car.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Eagle11 said:


> then you don't take that route.


So your advice is I shouldn't go and see my family? Uh no, that is unacceptable.



Eagle11 said:


> Some people get the EV cars and *some like yourself will fight it*, it's not for everyone, but after driving the Model 75 for an hour, I get it, the speed of the car, and the fact that maintenance is lower then a combustion engine is very appealing to me.


Do try and understand someone's position before drawing erroneous conclusions:

"I'd consider one (earlier in the year I was looking at the Chevy Volt) but not as my sole vehicle."

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10574209&postcount=4

"*When I was investigating the purchase of a used Chevy Volt *I knew there was absolutely no way I would ever recover the purchase price from fuel savings. I am almost the perfect candidate for a Volt: My daily driving habits easily keep me on pure electric usage if I charged every few nights. However I do make the occasional trip which would take me out of the pure electric mode of operation. Despite this I would never recover the cost of buying the Volt merely from fuel savings.* I was considering it more from a technology / interest point of view and not a financial one*."

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10583881&postcount=74

"Personally I like the idea of an all electric vehicle but they're not there yet...at least not as an only vehicle. "

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10584281&postcount=77

"It's definitely interesting technology."

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10598585&postcount=144

"This is why I was considering a Volt or Prius Prime."

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10600337&postcount=156

"To the contrary I think I'm an ideal candidate for an EV."

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10601945&postcount=171

"However I can see a day when an EV would be an option."

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10602857&postcount=181

I have investigated EV technology based on my requirements. For my requirements it's not there yet, at least not as a sole vehicle.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SOOT NO said:


> My wife has a 328d that we bought when VW bought her Jetta Diesel back. I put a down on a Model 3, just in case. My wife loves her BMW, but I am slowly talking her into actually getting the Model 3 when we are finally contacted that they are ready to build ours. I used the new California gas tax to help persuade her....63 cents a gallon! We saw several charging stations at the Carls Jr. in Quartsite, which is about the half way point between where we live, Temecula, and where we go often, Scottsdale.
> 
> We did get 43 mpg with the BMW on this latest trip.


What is mpg in city for 328d? My 328i is about 23mpg in city and 41mpg(eco cruising) on highway, should 328d be at least 45-50mpg on highway?

Yes $0.63/gallon tax is steep, for 25mpg(e.g.) it is $0.025 per mile, 50mpg is $0.0125. It is just a matter of time CA will impose EV surcharge though, say, $200-400?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Obviously a matter of opinion but I think the exterior and interior design of the Teslas is much cleaner and more futuristic than BMW's. And it has better Cd.


Aerodynamics is a plus, also the lack of lines/folds may simplify manufacturing and save time/money.


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

namelessman said:


> What is mpg in city for 328d? My 328i is about 23mpg in city and 41mpg(eco cruising) on highway, should 328d be at least 45-50mpg on highway?
> 
> Yes $0.63/gallon tax is steep, for 25mpg(e.g.) it is $0.025 per mile, 50mpg is $0.0125. It is just a matter of time CA will impose EV surcharge though, say, $200-400?


Its likely he was not cruising in eco mode for his diesel. In my wifes X5D we never use the eco mode (I dont use eco mode in any BMW... cant stand it), so MPG with eco mode is irrelevant to me (just like effective range of an EV calculated at 55 MPH would be irrelevant to me).


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

namelessman said:


> What is mpg in city for 328d? My 328i is about 23mpg in city and 41mpg(eco cruising) on highway, should 328d be at least 45-50mpg on highway?
> 
> Yes $0.63/gallon tax is steep, for 25mpg(e.g.) it is $0.025 per mile, 50mpg is $0.0125. It is just a matter of time CA will impose EV surcharge though, say, $200-400?


WA State has been charging an EV fee for several years; I understand that the yearly license renewal was raised from $100 to $150. http://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=46.17.323

My wife's 328xd is sitting on 35mpg, and is a typical 50/50 city/highway daily driver (that's a long-term reading as she doesn't reset on every fill-up.) We get mid-40's on the highway.


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> So your advice is I shouldn't go and see my family? Uh no, that is unacceptable.
> 
> Do try and understand someone's position before drawing erroneous conclusions:
> 
> "I'd consider one (earlier in the year I was looking at the Chevy Volt) but not as my sole vehicle."


They why are you such a downer on EV? Just because it doesn't fit for you doesn't mean it doesn't fit for others. IF my goal was to drive from PHX to NYC in a Tesla I can, and still make it in the 3-4 days too. I recognized there's a limitation of an EV, but for me, the limitations are small.


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

Our 328d is not all wheel drive, not really a must have for a car in CA, although, I would not mind having it, but would not want the lower MPG. I cruise well above the speed limit, so that factors into the MPG. I guess if I put it in cruise control at 64 mph, on a flat road, I could get 50 MPG. And yes, I WAS in Eco Mode. I have a Boss for when I want to have fun. The BMW is funnish, but gets really good gas mileage.

Dave


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

jjrandorin said:


> Its likely he was not cruising in eco mode for his diesel. In my wifes X5D we never use the eco mode (I dont use eco mode in any BMW... cant stand it), so MPG with eco mode is irrelevant to me (just like effective range of an EV calculated at 55 MPH would be irrelevant to me).


what are you getting in the X5D?


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

Eagle11 said:


> what are you getting in the X5D?


Right around 30-32 MPG, driving it around town and on the freeways at 80 (ish..) when traffic allows. I dont even know if eco pro works on it, and dont intend to find out (lol).


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Eagle11 said:


> *They why are you such a downer on EV?* Just because it doesn't fit for you doesn't mean it doesn't fit for others. IF my goal was to drive from PHX to NYC in a Tesla I can, and still make it in the 3-4 days too. I recognized there's a limitation of an EV, but for me, the limitations are small.


Don't confuse calling out their _current_ limitations as being down on them. Likewise I don't recall ever having said they're not a good fit for others.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

jjrandorin said:


> Its likely he was not cruising in eco mode for his diesel. In my wifes X5D we never use the eco mode (I dont use eco mode in any BMW... cant stand it), so MPG with eco mode is irrelevant to me (just like effective range of an EV calculated at 55 MPH would be irrelevant to me).


80mph in eco is what seems to give the best mpg on my 328i N26. In fact at 80mph eco and comfort give almost identical mpg(about 1mpg difference).


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

namelessman said:


> 80mph in eco is what seems to give the best mpg on my 328i N26. In fact at 80mph eco and comfort give almost identical mpg(about 1mpg difference).


Thats interesting, actually. As i mentioned, I dont use eco mode (I dont like the throttle profile of eco pro), so I dont use it.

Maybe if I was driving to vegas or something...


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## beware_phog (Mar 7, 2003)

Things I don't care about with my BMW: Gas Mileage


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

jjrandorin said:


> Right around 30-32 MPG, driving it around town and on the freeways at 80 (ish..) when traffic allows. I dont even know if eco pro works on it, and dont intend to find out (lol).


WOW, 30 is awesome for that size SUV. ARe you happy with the performance?


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

namelessman said:


> 80mph in eco is what seems to give the best mpg on my 328i N26. In fact at 80mph eco and comfort give almost identical mpg(about 1mpg difference).


The only difference between Eco and comfort is the throttle remapping, it's lazier in Eco then comfort. When I was going a lot of driving between PHX and SAn Diego I played with the Sport-Comfort-Eco. There is a huge difference in MPG between Sport and Comfort, not much between Comfort and Eco.



beware_phog said:


> Things I don't care about with my BMW: Gas Mileage


I don't think most people do, but it's nice to know that BMW bet the EPA rating.


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## jjrandorin (May 8, 2013)

Eagle11 said:


> WOW, 30 is awesome for that size SUV. ARe you happy with the performance?


Yes, actually we are EXCEEDINGLY happy with this car. The low end torque makes the car feel like it has more performance than the gas version, even though the top end speed is slower (we dont push that.. we never really drive it faster than about 90).

I had typed a lot more here in response to this question but then realized it was VERY off topic to this thread. Let me just say that we really like this car and may keep it, and my wife would not even consider test driving the 40e (which is the plug in version), but not like the model 3 as most know.

Anyway, it feels like the diesel version of the X5 is the perfect version, because you get the gas mileage of your average sedan, the carrying capacity of the X5 if you need it, and the torque of a much faster car for low end acceleration, which most drivers would notice, vs top speed which most drivers will not notice.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Eagle11 said:


> The only difference between Eco and comfort is the throttle remapping, it's lazier in Eco then comfort. When I was going a lot of driving between PHX and SAn Diego I played with the Sport-Comfort-Eco. There is a huge difference in MPG between Sport and Comfort, not much between Comfort and Eco.
> 
> I don't think most people do, but it's nice to know that BMW bet the EPA rating.


Differences between Eco Pro and Comfort also include more economical use of the AC system as well as throttle mapping. There may be more as well. I'll have to do more research.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This car has good road manners. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o9IHCGROeU


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

.

It's a whole new all-electric ball game....Honda is *IN*....*$269/mo in California & Oregon*










Jimmy Gan, the first owner of the Clarity [San Jose last Tuesday], said: *"The range is perfect. Ninety miles is more than enough for me and most of the people I know."*

90 mile range. 90 miles. Think it'll sell?


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> .
> 
> It's a whole new all-electric ball game....Honda is *IN*....*$269/mo in California & Oregon*
> 
> ...


It won't sell needs more range. CR did a range test and the bolt beat the EPA estimate range https://youtu.be/cx7Tg7QNvFg and it also beat the p75 model s in range

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> No AWD configuration. When I visit my family in the mountains AWD is important. My parents have a step driveway which can test even an AWD vehicle in the winter. My brother has some steep roads into his community. When it snows the Prius stays home and the Jeep comes out.
> Interior room. In the Volt the battery reduce cargo space thus there was not as much room for all my gear.
> 
> Other issues, like lack of fun to drive factor, may not apply to the Model 3 (if I bought the Volt it may have replaced my current Outback XT). In the end the Volt was something I considered as I'm very interested in the technology of EV's. The ability to drive all week without using any gas is very appealing (despite the fact it would never recover the purchase price). But in the end there were too many downsides. However I can see a day when an EV would be an option. Not today but perhaps in the next five years or so.


Tesla has dual motor which could be AWD, also the fun factor, I guess you haven't driven a tesla, on my test drive I had fun with a 340i, he couldn't keep up


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

FaRKle! said:


> We're having them this summer too.
> 
> Last month when I was visiting my aunt near downtown San Jose she was having rolling blackouts. She was specifically not charging her Tesla S because of it. Then she was complaining about going to places with chargers and there being a long wait (she's a new Tesla owner).


Have her head down to Santana Row and she can charge her Tesla for free.


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

Rebound said:


> Because Tesla now has a starting price that's lower than my Plug-in Prius.


Lets be realistic here, can you go down to a tesla dealer and purchase a Model 3? NO, it's being released in SMALL batches only in Calif for now, so I wouldn't be pushing the entry level model too much. JJ is right, anyone can purchase a 75-120K Tesla without problem, also the price of the model 3 fully loaded is about 55K, the 35K model is a base and not too many people want a base model car.


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Ride quality?
> 
> Noise level?


Ride quality was great, fit and finish was perfect, early model 2's weren't put together so well, but the last couple of years things have gotten better.

Noise, what noise, it was very quite inside the car, that was one of the things that I was amazed at. Better then a 3 series, and on par with a 7 series.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Eagle11 said:


> Tesla has dual motor which could be AWD, also the fun factor, I guess you haven't driven a tesla, on my test drive I had fun with a 340i, he couldn't keep up


Do you know the story of the tortoise and the hare?


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

Eagle11 said:


> Have her head down to Santana Row and she can charge her Tesla for free.


Why would she go there unless she had something else to do there? She was complaining about the places that she needed to go to, that happened to have chargers, were all full.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

eazy said:


> It won't sell needs more range. CR did a range test and the bolt beat the EPA estimate range


By 15 mi per 100% charge vs. Tesla. Which do you prefer?


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Jimmy Gan, the first owner of the Clarity [San Jose last Tuesday], said: *"The range is perfect. Ninety miles is more than enough for me and most of the people I know."*
> 
> 90 mile range. 90 miles. Think it'll sell?


San Jose. San Jose, that is what should be bold. The whole world, nay, the whole UNIVERSE is inside 90 miles radius of San Jose. Why would I need more than 90 miles range?

It is the same (glass) bubble phenomenon that bred-in-midwest-cornfield experience when they get shoved around Midtown Manhattan when blocking the sidewalk walking three abreast at 1/3 of the pace of people rushing to go to work. Then they get home 5 days later and, still pi$$ed and clueless, call local radio station to complain how New Yorkers are rude.

Bubbles are everywhere, not just on midwestern corn farms. The more information becomes available to people, the more closed in the bubbles they seem to get. Go figure.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> By 15 mi per 100% charge vs. Tesla. Which do you prefer?


They are apples to oranges. 2 different price categories. With all the discounts the bolt is a better buy. 
Tesla has some big negatives besides the interior.
1. Insurance is higher that other high luxury cars due to availability of spare parts.
2. Tesla says that maintenance on a model s is cheaper but in reality it more money. I pointed that out earlier in the tread.
3. Getting a maintenance appointed at tesla takes a long time. If have an issue with a BMW or chevy they will take in almost immediately.

Yes the tesla is a better car but the bolt is a better car to live with.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

eazy said:


> They are apples to oranges. 2 different price categories. With all the discounts the bolt is a better buy.
> Tesla has some big negatives besides the interior.
> 1. Insurance is higher that other high luxury cars due to availability of spare parts.
> 2. Tesla says that maintenance on a model s is cheaper but in reality it more money. I pointed that out earlier in the tread.
> ...


But the Bolt is bland to look at and to drive. There's a reason that we are talking about the 3 as a 3 series competitor. It's a true sports sedan.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> But the Bolt is bland to look at and to drive. There's a reason that we are talking about the 3 as a 3 series competitor. It's a true sports sedan.


Have you driven a bolt? Yes the bolt does looks dorky but drive well. It takes 2 week to make an appointment at tesla if some thing happens to your car. The lack of spare parts is not good for an everyday day car.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Eagle11 said:


> Tesla has dual motor which could be AWD, also the fun factor, I guess you haven't driven a tesla, on my test drive I had fun with a 340i, he couldn't keep up


If there were a Model 3 that I could test drive I would do so. I'm not interested in their other models. However I do have familiarity with them:

"Tesla has other models besides the S and the 3. My friend bought a Model 60 (60kWh battery). I don't know what he paid for it but it's inline with what a lot of people pay for a BMW. He's a little on the green side (has solar for his home) so it was worth it to him to buy the Model 60 (he didn't think the $9K upgrade to the Model 75 was worth it but he can always do it by giving them his CC number and they'll upgrade it to a Model 75 over the air) "

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=10584561&postcount=82

Again you keep arguing as if I'm clueless about EV vehicles when in fact I have been following them for a while now. I may not know all the intricacies but I know enough about them to know that their current offerings, save for the Model 3, are not of interest to me. Given the Model 3 has a two year backlog I doubt I'll even bother with it given how much can change in that time.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> 90 mile range. 90 miles. Think it'll sell?


As an only vehicle? I don't believe it will sell in large numbers.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

FaRKle! said:


> Why would she go there unless she had something else to do there? She was complaining about the places that she needed to go to, that happened to have chargers, were all full.


His position appears to be for a prospective owner to plan their trips around the locations of charging stations instead of planning around what they want / need to do.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> His position appears to be for a prospective owner to plan their trips around the locations of charging stations instead of planning around what they want / need to do.


There is truth to the planning part, be it at home or charging station.


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

If you have never driven a Tesla, you should. They are AMAZING cars. Truth is, the only one I have driven was at one of their "stores," with NO appointment, and one of the top of the line Model S's. It was a very nice car, and if I was wealthy, I would have one or two along side my Ferrari, Lambo and Porsche. The Ludicrous mode is unbelievable. The interior is really nice, spacious, clean looking. The sunroof is huge, and the display is like 2' long and 1' wide! If you live in the City, I think they are about the perfect car if your commute is short and you travel 100 or so miles on the weekend to your fun spot. My wife's commute is 80 miles round trip, so the 200 or so mile range will be perfect for her. We have solar, which makes it even a better buy for us.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> There is truth to the planning part, be it at home or charging station.


Nothing wrong with some planning. But not to the point it dictates what you do.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

eazy said:


> Have you driven a bolt? Yes the bolt does looks dorky but drive well. It takes 2 week to make an appointment at tesla if some thing happens to your car. The lack of spare parts is not good for an everyday day car.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


No but the reviews are not saying it's a sports sedan. It's a FWD sedan with a tall greenhouse. It's not a sports sedan.


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

sunny5280 said:


> His position appears to be for a prospective owner to plan their trips around the locations of charging stations instead of planning around what they want / need to do.





namelessman said:


> There is truth to the planning part, be it at home or charging station.


My aunt was planning on charging at the places she needed to go (since she knew they had chargers), and her backup plan was to just charge at home if those areas were full (she obviously had enough range to do all her errands without charging). She couldn't have planned for the rolling blackouts and not being able to charge at home.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

FaRKle! said:


> My aunt was planning on charging at the places she needed to go (since she knew they had chargers), and her backup plan was to just charge at home if those areas were full (she obviously had enough range to do all her errands without charging). She couldn't have planned for the rolling blackouts and not being able to charge at home.


I need to see some real world range for the Model 3 / Bolt to see if either would be suitable for trips to visit my family. 220 miles would do it as it's literally 100 miles from my place to my families. However it involves a lot of up hill grades which would reduce the range (though I suspect 220 leaves ample reserves). I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how they do in the real world (though, as I said earlier, a Model 3 is likely out given the two year backlog).


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## tsoc88 (Jun 27, 2007)

sunny5280 said:


> The problem with these 0-60 times is the battery cannot sustain such hard acceleration. The Model S may be the fastest 0-60 car but it can't sustain it.


Having driven cross country in a Model S from Boston to San Jose and back, I can assure you a Model S can sustain it


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

tsoc88 said:


> Having driven cross country in a Model S from Boston to San Jose and back, I can assure you a Model S can sustain it


Did you visit Yellowstone?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

.

And was it a P100?


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## tsoc88 (Jun 27, 2007)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> .
> 
> And was it a P100?


Not a P100 and no yellowstone. Both of us had been to Yellowstone several times


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

tsoc88 said:


> Having driven cross country in a Model S from Boston to San Jose and back, I can assure you a Model S can sustain it


It can? Hard acceleration doesn't diminish the battery faster than light acceleration? You get the same distance no matter how hard you drive one?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

eazy said:


> They are apples to oranges. 2 different price categories. With all the discounts the bolt is a better buy.


Bolt might be the budget buy; Tesla pilots would not consider. Still....cash aside, which would you prefer?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

tsoc88 said:


> Not a P100 and no yellowstone. Both of us had been to Yellowstone several times


 The supercharger route then?


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Then there's this to consider. The holidays are hard on Tesla's Superchargers, long lines reported....


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## BobinIl (Oct 29, 2014)

Dio///M said:


> Then there's this to consider. The holidays are hard on Tesla***8217;s Superchargers, long lines reported....


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## beware_phog (Mar 7, 2003)

Dio///M said:


> Then there's this to consider. The holidays are hard on Tesla's Superchargers, long lines reported....


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

BobinIl said:


> I wonder about how long the average wait would be in a line like that? If the average charge time is an hour+ or so per car (just a wild guess here) it could be substantial.


Guess what! Driving an EV is different than driving a gas car. Who'd have thought?


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

For us, the Tesla will be my wife's commuter car. We have solar, so no more gas or diesel for her. Have you been to Sam's Club or Costco for gas, and had to wait in line? We have a Mall that is 15 minutes from my house, with I think 11 charging stations. We will probably go to a movie, dinner, shopping, or some other activity on many a Sunday evening, and will charge the Tesla there. For long trips, we will use my Truck or Boss 302. But, 90% of our weekend trips are less than 200 miles. The Tesla will not be for everyone, but I think Tesla has been, and will continue to be a game changer, with all the luxury makes scurrying to catch up.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

SOOT NO said:


> For us, the Tesla will be my wife's commuter car. We have solar, so no more gas or diesel for her. Have you been to Sam's Club or Costco for gas, and had to wait in line?


The difference being those waiting in line at Sam's Club or Costco are doing so because they want to pay the least amount possible for their gas and not because it's the only place to fuel up.



SOOT NO said:


> We have a Mall that is 15 minutes from my house, with I think 11 charging stations. We will probably go to a movie, dinner, shopping, or some other activity on many a Sunday evening, and will charge the Tesla there.


You plan to do this every time you fuel up? Or just when it suits you to go to a dinner, movie, shopping, or some other activity?



SOOT NO said:


> For long trips, we will use my Truck or Boss 302. But, 90% of our weekend trips are less than 200 miles. The Tesla will not be for everyone, but I think Tesla has been, and will continue to be a game changer, with all the luxury makes scurrying to catch up.


I think you should substitute EV for Tesla. Tesla is, IMO, for the higher income brackets. Bolt is more appropriate for mainstream.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Bolt might be the budget buy; Tesla pilots would not consider. Still....cash aside, which would you prefer?


In reality I would not consider an ev vehicle until a solid state battery is out. Now if I have to choice between a bolt or a model s. I would pick a bolt. The interior of the model s does not justifies the price. The model 3 tablet is a deal breaker for me.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

eazy said:


> I hear people say that electric cars are cheaper to maintain than ICE cars yet the maintenance package for a Tesla is a lot more than Audi's maintenance package.
> https://www.audiusa.com/content/dam/audiusa/Documents/AudiCare_12_Brochure_Combined_j2.pdf
> https://electrek.co/2017/02/03/tesla-nodel-s-x-maintenance-plans/


That is not a reflection of EV's maintenance costs. Tesla knows it can charge premium for their products based on current market conditions, so they do.

You are not seriously implying that an electric motor is as complicated as an ICE, are you?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Dio///M said:


> Then there's this to consider. The holidays are hard on Tesla's Superchargers, long lines reported....


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

PK2348 said:


> That is not a reflection of EV's maintenance costs. Tesla knows it can charge premium for their products based on current market conditions, so they do.
> 
> You are not seriously implying that an electric motor is as complicated as an ICE, are you?


I am saying that tesla maintenance plan is more than audis . In CR reliability many of the car companies least reliable car is an ev. In the lastest CR data the least reliable BMW is the i3 while the 2 series is the most reliable BMW

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

sunny5280 said:


> The difference being those waiting in line at Sam's Club or Costco are doing so because they want to pay the least amount possible for their gas and not because it's the only place to fuel up.
> 
> Only place to fill up? I will charge it at home most of the time.
> 
> ...


Nah.....and the Bolt is fugly. The Volt is decent with horrible depreciation.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

SOOT NO said:


> Nah.....and the Bolt is fugly. The Volt is decent with horrible depreciation.


Perhaps but this does not change anything of what I wrote.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

eazy said:


> I am saying that tesla maintenance plan is more than audis . In CR reliability many of the car companies least reliable car is an ev. In the lastest CR data the least reliable BMW is the i3 while the 2 series is the most reliable BMW


What goes bad in EV's?

Gotta wonder if a Model S is more expensive to maintain than a 750i....maybe not....


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## SOOT NO (Jul 17, 2016)

sunny5280 said:


> Perhaps but this does not change anything of what I wrote.


I guess I do not get your point, assuming you had one?


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> What goes bad in EV's?
> 
> Gotta wonder if a Model S is more expensive to maintain than a 750i....maybe not....


Drivetrain motor

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> His position appears to be for a prospective owner to plan their trips around the locations of charging stations instead of planning around what they want / need to do.


No not at all


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

BobinIl said:


> I wonder about how long the average wait would be in a line like that? If the average charge time is an hour+ or so per car (just a wild guess here) it could be substantial.


To recharge a Tesla S or X to 80% takes 20 minutes on a supercharger. Which makes it doable for long trips.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Eagle11 said:


> To recharge a *Tesla S or X to 80% takes 20 minutes on a supercharger*. Which makes it doable for long trips.


*Hold up there Chief:
*










*Isn't that, like, 100% LONGER THAN YOU THINK?

Or are you stopping for a charge....often?*

*Today's Supercharger map** looks well populated.....until ya blow it up some. Here in the land o'Tesla, where they're manufactured, it shows exactly 3 Superchargers for a nearby population of, what's it now, 3 million? San Francisco alone's over 750k souls with noooooo Supercharger. None. Nope! Long drive in heavy traffic to any Supercharger, none being nearby. Tesla drivers are very conservative.

But let's be fair. Yes! Tesla provides destination charging in many locations. Um....what is "destination charging?" According to Tesla: "Find Destination Charging sites at places you will want to stay for several hours or overnight. Just pull up, plug in to a Tesla Wall Connector and enjoy your stay."

DUDE!*

.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

SOOT NO said:


> I guess I do not get your point, assuming you had one?


My point was that your response didn't alter anything I had written.


----------



## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> *Hold up there Chief:
> *


Well my quote is from the Tesla Dealer/


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

Eagle11 said:


> Well my quote is from the Tesla Dealer/


It appears his is from the manufacturer. Who to believe?


----------



## BobinIl (Oct 29, 2014)

This is strictly anecdotal but a while back we were planning a trip to Lincoln, NE for a commencement. It's normally about 7 hours with a stop or two. At the time I was casually interested in potentially driving Tesla. After checking Supercharger availability along the route (I 80 west from Chicago) I estimated that with the necessary detours it would add 6-7 hours each way to access the stations. I was surprised that along this busy route they are few and far in between. The only one directly along the route was in Omaha about 450+ miles, I realize that we could take the other car but for over $70k I'd want more flexibility. For me at least, I'm not there yet on adopting a luxury EV.

PS: I just checked and it looks like Superchargers have since been added along this route in the Quad Cities (Ia/Il), Iowa City/Cedar Rapids, Des Moines as well as Lincoln. Nice additions.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Here in the land o'Tesla, where they're manufactured, it shows exactly 3 Superchargers for a nearby population of, what's it now, 3 million? San Francisco alone's over 750k souls with noooooo Supercharger. None. Nope! Long drive in heavy traffic to any Supercharger, none being nearby. Tesla drivers are very conservative.


That probably will drive customer demands in SF, which by the way only have 2 Denny's, each charging $18 for double cheese burger.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> In reality I would not consider an ev vehicle until a solid state battery is out.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Wow that's very interesting, online search says researcher can build solid state battery with sodium instead of rare material like lithium(which causes lots of contamination), and has 3x density of lithium battery.

If that is not fake news then Tesla should mobilize the whole company to make those.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_lithium-ion_battery


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## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

PK2348 said:


> Exactly what type of data would that be? :dunno:
> 
> I attended a customer focus group a while back. They had a couple of future models on the floor (ugly as hell) and a Model S. We were given iPads and asked to answer hundreds of various questions (it took close to 4 hours), most had to do with comparing their models to Tesla.
> 
> ...


You made the statement that BMW is ****ting bricks, I'd just like to see data or proof they are. Having a focus group means they are wanting information and are exploring, doesn't mean they are ****ting bricks.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Eagle11 said:


> You made the statement that BMW is ****ting bricks, I'd just like to see data or proof they are. Having a focus group means they are wanting information and are exploring, doesn't mean they are ****ting bricks.


BMW is partnering up with Toyota in solid state battery technology. They are not behind in ev

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Oops..Post deleted.Wrong thread


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> BMW has the i8 which competes, mileage wise, with the Model S. The i3 currently offers approximately 80 miles of range. Given the i3 has a 18.8 kWh (useable) battery and the Model 3 has a 50 kWh battery it seems to me all BMW needs to do to obtain the range of the Model 3 is increase the battery size to equal that of the Model 3. That is if all they want to do is offer something with a 200+ mile range.
> 
> *Given the above it doesn't appear BMW is behind*.





eazy said:


> BMW is partnering up with Toyota in solid state battery technology. *They are not behind in ev *
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


They absolutely are. They do not have a current product to compete with EVs offered by Tesla. They are working to catch up. That is a book definition of being behind.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> BMW has the i8 which competes, mileage wise, with the Model S. The i3 currently offers approximately 80 miles of range. Given the i3 has a 18.8 kWh (useable) battery and the Model 3 has a 50 kWh battery it seems to me all BMW needs to do to obtain the range of the Model 3 is increase the battery size to equal that of the Model 3. That is if all they want to do is offer something with a 200+ mile range.
> 
> Given the above it doesn't appear BMW is behind.


The i3 form factor/chassis can be difficult to squeeze in 3x battery to get to 200+ miles.

The same is true for next gen 3-series, the chassis needs to be built with big battery packs in mind, e.g. can the engine bay be populated with batteries without screwing up 50/50, or should compartments be built into chassis(like Tesla) and leave those space empty for ICE?

As of right now BMW does not have a $35k-$60k EV with 200+ miles range to sell.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

PK2348 said:


> They absolutely are. They do not have a current product to compete with EVs offered by Tesla. They are working to catch up. That is a book definition of being behind.


Why do they need to catch up with current technology. There are too many limitations with current battery technology. Until solid state batteries come up along with electric infrastructure improvements, ev's will just be a novelty. Tesla has to worry about it self than other manufacturers. They are in junk bond status and inventories are rising. Like BMW they overestimated their residuals. Their residual price guarantee a couple years ago is hurting them.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Does 330e have a range of 14 miles? It is a plug-in hybrid.
> 
> If BMW cannot announce a pure electric offering that has 200+ miles in range then BMW will be of no threat to, and cannot compete with Tesla.


It's Tesla that has to compete with BMW.

I'm very pro Tesla but lets get some perspective. No doubt BMW and other brands have to be competitive in the pure EV market. Two things are certain, they are hard at work on this and their cars will be more fleshed out than Tesla's as they have more resources.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

eazy said:


> Why do they need to catch up with current technology. There are too many limitations with current battery technology. Until solid state batteries come up along with electric infrastructure improvements, ev's will just be a novelty. Tesla has to worry about it self than other manufacturers. They are in junk bond status and inventories are rising. Like BMW they overestimated their residuals. Their residual price guarantee a couple years ago is hurting them.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


If Tesla sells 200,000 to 300,000 3's over the next 2-3 years, it is not a novelty.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> They absolutely are. They do not have a current product to compete with EVs offered by Tesla. They are working to catch up. That is a book definition of being behind.


No, not at all. Not offering a comparable vehicle to _one_ Tesla model does not equate to being behind.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> The i3 form factor/chassis can be difficult to squeeze in 3x battery to get to 200+ miles.
> 
> The same is true for next gen 3-series, the chassis needs to be built with big battery packs in mind, e.g. can the engine bay be populated with batteries without screwing up 50/50, or should compartments be built into chassis(like Tesla) and leave those space empty for ICE?
> 
> *As of right now BMW does not have a $35k-$60k EV with 200+ miles range to sell.*


Which doesn't mean they're behind. It just means they're not selling a comparable vehicle. The i3 and i8 demonstrate they have the capability.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> It's Tesla that has to compete with BMW.
> 
> I'm very pro Tesla but lets get some perspective. No doubt BMW and other brands have to be competitive in the pure EV market. Two things are certain, they are hard at work on this and their cars will be more fleshed out than Tesla's as they have more resources.


To be specific, Tesla opens up a new market segment of pure EV with 200 to 300-mile [email protected]$35k-60k, and this new market segment overlaps with BMW's 3-series ICE market segment.

It is not that Tesla has to compete with BMW, since they are in two different market segments.

But the potential of success of this new $35k-60k, 200 to 300-mile pure EV is what motivates BMW brass to call all hands on deck to enter the segment, and BMW very likely is at least 12 months behind Tesla in shipping products for this segment.

Since BMW has no current offering in this new segment, while Tesla does, it is BMW that needs to catch up to participate, and compete with Tesla, in this new market segment.

It will be of great interest to festers and 3-series sub-forum in particular what BMW's counterpunch is to Model 3.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> No, not at all. Not offering a comparable vehicle to _one_ Tesla model does not equate to being behind.


It does in this case , they don't offer it because they don't have it


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Which doesn't mean they're behind. It just means they're not selling a comparable vehicle. The i3 and i8 demonstrate they have the capability.


Those 2 can now be called failures based on sales and that is all they demonstrate


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Which doesn't mean they're behind. It just means they're not selling a comparable vehicle. The i3 and i8 demonstrate they have the capability.


Agreed, BMW did spend 2 billion euros on i-platform, so they have great potential to offer a counterpunch that can knock out Tesla.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

PK2348 said:


> Those 2 can now be called failures based on sales and that is all they demonstrate


The i3 appears to mainly compete with other 100-mile range EVs, while i8 is positioned as DD supercar. My guess is that in those contexts, both cars should hold their own in terms of sales.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> It does in this case , they don't offer it because they don't have it


That doesn't mean they're behind. With the i3 and i8 they've demonstrated they are capable of producing such a vehicle. Just because they're currently not selling one doesn't mean they're behind.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> The i3 appears to mainly compete with other 100-mile range EVs, while i8 is positioned as DD supercar. My guess is that in those contexts, both cars should hold their own in terms of sales.


They also demonstrate BMW has the technology. The Model 3 isn't really earth shattering in its ability to achieve 220 miles on a charge. BMW could easily accomplish that by increasing the size of the i3's battery. Nothing revolutionary about that.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

PK2348 said:


> It does in this case , they don't offer it because they don't have it


I don't understand your thinking. BMW as a company is a behemoth compared to Tesla's insect. Yes BMW is not competitive at this point in a market niche but in the big picture in 2017 this is no contest.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

Michael Schott said:


> I don't understand your thinking. BMW as a company is a behemoth compared to Tesla's insect. Yes BMW is not competitive at this point in a market niche but in the big picture in 2017 this is no contest.


At one point of time blackberry was huge, and apple was this somewhat little niche tech company. Did not take long for things to change. Remember Kodak? Whatever happened to them? There are plenty of examples of behemoth enterprises becoming irrelevant as a result of their short slightness and refusal to embrace future technologies.

It will not take long for this segment to go from being niche to mainstream, at which point BMW and others better be ready or pack up and go home.

Companies like BMW and Tesla put together and execute business plans that span 15 to 20 years at least. As far as they are concerned 2017 is history already, and is irrelevant for that matter.

There are huge changes coming to the auto industry in not so distant future, i am talking 5 years at most. They clearly understand it and are now working on being the most successful in this "brave new world".

I am not saying BMW and others are doomed. I am saying they are all racing now to get into the EV game, and losers will be doomed for sure. This is an explanation for my earlier reference to ****ting bricks.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> That doesn't mean they're behind. With the i3 and i8 they've demonstrated they are capable of producing such a vehicle. Just because they're currently not selling one doesn't mean they're behind.


They are not currently capable of producing a vehicle that can compete on range and price with Tesla's products. If they were you would be able to buy one as apparently demand is there (Model 3 wait-list). I dont want to get into semantics here, but how is that not being behind?

Also, no one cross shopped i8 and Model S


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> I was unaware the i8 was not a pure EV, I learned something new just now. Having said that mileage appears to be a factor of battery capacity. Here is the capacity and range of some vehicles:
> 
> BMW i3: 18.8kWh, range: 81 miles, 232 Wh/mile
> Nissan Leaf: 24 kWh, range 73 miles, 328 Wh/mile
> ...


Got it. It is fair to say with enough battery capacity i3/ActiveE can reach 200 to 300-mile range, but the issue is, where do those batteries go?

In the video below(0:20), BMW still needs to store batteries in the chassis, there is no 3x space to extend the range to 200 to 300-mile ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exxxhpYm0CE

One innovation of Tesla is packaging 6000-8000 lithium ion battery cells(same ones used for laptops) into a case, plus the battery management software that manages/maintain these cells.

BMW needs to solve the battery storage issue, in the same chassis that supports ICE and EV, plus the battery management software.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is the 1000-lb battery pack of Model S to power a 4000-lb car. The design principle of Tesla battery pack is different from i3 battery pack, e.g. Tesla one is not modular(cannot be field swapped individually as BMW's) but it appears Tesla one is custom build and fit to have relatively smaller form factor than BMW's.

BMW either has to adopt similar design as Tesla, or start putting extra batteries in engine bay/trunk(penalty to 50/50 and cargo space).

http://insideevs.com/look-inside-a-tesla-model-s-battery-pac/


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## Mikehunt78 (Aug 6, 2017)

Look at the lucid motors .


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> Got it. It is fair to say with enough battery capacity i3/ActiveE can reach 200 to 300-mile range, but the issue is, where do those batteries go?
> 
> In the video below(0:20), BMW still needs to store batteries in the chassis, there is no 3x space to extend the range to 200 to 300-mile ....
> 
> ...


The i3 is a smaller vehicle than the Model 3. Make it bigger and there's more space for the battery. Likewise it's an older vehicle, by four years, compared to the Model 3.

Having said that what leads you to conclude BMW is unable to produce a battery of the same size / capacity as the Model 3? Based on the watt hour calculations I performed earlier the i3 is very comparable to the Model 3...despite its being available for sale several years earlier. You seem to be of the mindset Tesla has done something special with their battery technology when, in fact, it appears to be inline with what BMW had achieved years earlier.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> This is the 1000-lb battery pack of Model S to power a 4000-lb car. The design principle of Tesla battery pack is different from i3 battery pack, e.g. Tesla one is not modular(cannot be field swapped individually as BMW's) but it appears Tesla one is custom build and fit to have relatively smaller form factor than BMW's.
> 
> *BMW either has to adopt similar design as Tesla*, or start putting extra batteries in engine bay/trunk(penalty to 50/50 and cargo space).


What leads you to the conclusion BMW cannot do this?


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> Got it. It is fair to say with enough battery capacity i3/ActiveE can reach 200 to 300-mile range, but the issue is, where do those batteries go?


Apparently they don't have to go anywhere:

"Since then, BMW has given the i3 a little bump, using more energy-dense lithium-ion cells to give the i3's battery a 50-percent boost: 33kWh compared to 22kWh."

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/0...-range-but-the-bmw-i3-is-still-too-expensive/

Range is now 114 miles. Ask and ye shall receive!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> What leads you to the conclusion BMW cannot do this?


BMW can do the same, but what will go into that space for ICE units, may be the fuel tank? Tesla chassis is custom built for EV only, but BMW may need to innovate in order to support both ICE and EV on same chassis.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Range is now 180 miles with an energy consumption of 151 Wh/mile, considerably better than the Model 3. Ask and ye shall receive!


If i3 is immediately available with 180-mile range, why will i3 sales not be in 200k to 250k units per year, while Model 3 has 500k reservation pending?

So does it mean EV is a dud, or i3 is a dud, or both?

EDIT: OK post#366 is updated to 114-mile range on electric only, so 180-mile range is with range extender.

So again, BMW does not have EV product with 200 to 300-mile range, and BMW needs to solve battery capacity and space issues to get to those ranges.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> BMW can do the same, but what will go into that space for ICE units, may be the fuel tank? Tesla chassis is custom built for EV only, but BMW may need to innovate in order to support both ICE and EV on same chassis.


Perhaps I'm not understanding what you're asking. You say BMW can do the same so what is the issue?


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## Caprica (Aug 9, 2017)

anotheran said:


> When a sub 3.5 sec 0-60 arrives in the cpo market for sub 40k, its over for the bmw 3 series


However how much range do you have after you actually punched it to 3.5 sec? How often do you see a Tesla in the left lane pushing the car to the max? They're usually in the center lane doing 55 to preserve that range....range anxiety! I'm anxious when I'm below a quarter tank, I can't imagine the anxiety of making it to the next charging station miles away, then waiting an hr to get a full charge. I must say BWW is killing themselves with the crappie reliability of their vehicles...crappie turbos and failing timing chain.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> If i3 is immediately available with 180-mile range, why will i3 sales not be in 200k to 250k units per year, while Model 3 has 500k reservation pending?
> 
> So does it mean EV is a dud, or i3 is a dud, or both?
> 
> ...


I missed they received the range extended version so I had to update my post. Having said that it goes to show BMW is actively working on their EV offerings. The fact that BMW isn't selling an EV vehicle with a 200 mile range doesn't mean they can't make a vehicle with such a range. I see nothing which shows Tesla has a technological advantage over BMW. Perhaps I'm missing something?


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Elon Musk's growing empire is fueled by $4.9 billion in government subsidies.

Tesla is alive thanks to government generosity. Take the subsidies away, and sales will absolutely crash.
A looming question is whether the company is moving toward self-sufficiency and whether they can slash development costs before the public largesse ends.

Tesla and SolarCity continue to report net losses after a decade in business
When government subsidies dry up eventually for Tesla and with strong competition heating up in the all electric sector , (Volvo announced recently that after 2019 ALL their cars will be electric or hybrid) Tesla will be in serious turbulent times.

And something most folks don't realise is that when the Tesla 3 goes into production this month, buyers will have a choice of color and wheels and NOTHING ELSE,....Bmw being Bmw will continue to offer of vast array of choices and keep spoiling their customers...


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> The i3 was first produced in 2013...four years ago. Were people buying Model 3's four years ago? *Technology has changed making 200+ mile EVs a reality.* Something that didn't exist when the i3 was conceived / released.
> 
> I'm not saying it's trivial but BMW already has experience, and offerings, in the EV market. To listen to others on this forum you'd get the impression they haven't done a thing.


Four years ago people were buying Model S. Your statement is incorrect.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> *BMW has the i8 which competes, mileage wise, with the Model S.* The i3 currently offers approximately 80 miles of range. Given the i3 has a 18.8 kWh (useable) battery and the Model 3 has a 50 kWh battery it seems to me all BMW needs to do to obtain the range of the Model 3 is increase the battery size to equal that of the Model 3. That is if all they want to do is offer something with a 200+ mile range.
> 
> Given the above it doesn't appear BMW is behind.





sunny5280 said:


> Don't confuse "Does not currently produce" with "Unable to produce".
> 
> *And?*


And i am saying that no one cross shopped these two, so they do not really "compete" with each other


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> That doesn't mean they're behind. With the i3 and i8 they've demonstrated they are capable of producing such a vehicle. Just because they're currently not selling one doesn't mean they're behind.


what they demonstrated is that they are capable of producing an inferior vehicle.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> BMW is already in the EV game: i3 and i8. You make it sound as if they haven't done a single thing.


I do not. Maybe you confused me with another poster. The argument i was making is that they are behind Tesla in EV technology. Frankly, i am surprised you are disagreeing.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Irrelevant. BMW has demonstrated they can produce a vehicle with comparable mileage to Tesla.


i thought i8 had electric only range of 15 miles or so? How is that comparable to Tesla?



sunny5280 said:


> I agree. I also think BMW did not expect to sell many of them. I suspect BMW produced it as a concept vehicle. What it does show is, given an equally sized battery capacity, BMW could produce a vehicle which achieves the same mileage as the Model 3. There is nothing special about the Model 3 in achieving its 220 mileage range. *BMW could easily achieve the same thing in their i3 if they used an equally sized battery.*


So why didn't they? There is close to 500K customers waiting for a chance to buy one?


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> I missed they received the range extended version so I had to update my post. Having said that it goes to show BMW is actively working on their EV offerings. The fact that BMW isn't selling an EV vehicle with a 200 mile range *doesn't* mean they can't make a vehicle with such a range. I see nothing which shows Tesla has a technological advantage over BMW. Perhaps I'm missing something?


What else can it possibly mean?


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> If Tesla sells 200,000 to 300,000 3's over the next 2-3 years, it is not a novelty.


The question is IF. once the federal incentives for ev's for Tesla are gone will Tesla sell that many cars. When Denmark and Hong Kong got rid of EV incentives, Tesla sales fell rapidly.

BMW just tap their feet in the EV water. They are not going to disappear anytime soon. 
Toyota has no full EV automobile on sale today. They are not going away as well.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

eazy said:


> Toyota has no full EV automobile on sale today. They are not going away as well.


Toyota's best seller is.....Prius

They're about halfway there.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> BMW i3: 18.8kWh, range: 81 miles, 232 Wh/mile
> Nissan Leaf: 24 kWh, range 73 miles, 328 Wh/mile
> Chevy Volt: 16 kWh, range 15 miles, 1,066 Wh/mile
> Prius Prime: 8.8 kWh, range 25 miles, 352 Wh/mile
> ...


The missing parameter is the *weights*, e.g i3 is 2700-2900lb(with or w/o extender), Model 3 200-mile range one is around 3500lb, and the Model S 70 is 4400lb.

This already shows that Model 3 is a better car than i3:
1. it is 600-800lb heavier than i3, but still gets better Wh/mile than i3
2. it has 100+ miles of extra range(even if compared to i3 with 33kW and 114-mile electric-only range). Do note the extra weight probably contributes to the extra range.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Perhaps I'm not understanding what you're asking. You say BMW can do the same so what is the issue?


"BMW can do the same", as in putting battery pack in the chassis, e.g. i3. But BMW is using G30(3-series) platform instead of i-platform to combat Model 3, and than G20 platform needs to support both ICE and EV.

So in the context of "BMW can do the same" by also placing batteries in the chassis(used by both EV and ICE), there will be design issue on how to make use of that space when no battery pack is needed in ICE.

Just imagine the whole car's performance and handling is tuned with 800lb batteries in the chassis to hit 50/50, aligning torque, CG specs for EV. Now that chassis is shared with ICE with no battery pack, how are the 50/50, aligning torque, and CG affected?


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

namelessman said:


> No doubt the 100-mile range [email protected]$40k-ish segment will become obsolete when 200 to 300-mile range EVs show up in that price range.
> 
> As far as ease of access, is i8 at par with 911, Tesla Roadster, and a few other low hugging cars? In general, i8 as DD has decent mpg and ease of use among peers of similar performance and handling.


It's not just the depth of the seat position, i8 has one of the widest door sills I've seen. Entry/Egress can be a challenge

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

PK2348 said:


> So why didn't they? There is close to 500K customers waiting for a chance to buy one?


That's a good question.

It appears BMW i3 was released to match with other 100-mile range EVs, and now BMW plans to have a pure electric version of G20 to fend off Model 3(which is ahead of BMW in terms of delivery).

But what about increasing range of i3 to 200+ miles? Maybe BMW brass did not believe Tesla could have hit Model 3 schedules, and/or they were skeptical of $35k-$50k EV with 200 to 300-mile range.

Or there is fundamental design limitation of the i-platform, e.g. what the extra batteries can be stored on the chassis?

Or the extra cost of further pushing i3 is not economical?

My wild guess is that, BMW brass anticipates and prepares for Model 3 being a hit, and G20 platform is the one that is geared for 500k+ annual production, and that stands the best chance to capture the market potential for BMW.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Toyota's best seller is.....Prius
> 
> They're about halfway there.


The best selling hybrid is a Prius. The best selling Toyota is the RAV4 or Camry

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> Four years ago people were buying Model S. Your statement is incorrect.


Only if you ignore the fact I was referring to the Model 3:

"Were people buying *Model 3's *four years ago?"


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> I do not. Maybe you confused me with another poster. The argument i was making is that they are behind Tesla in EV technology. Frankly, i am surprised you are disagreeing.


No, I do not have you confused with someone else. Your argument that BMW is behind Tesla is unsupported. Saying they're not selling a Model 3 equivalent doesn't mean they're behind. As I said they've already got EV's in production. They could easily achieve the range of the Model 3 merely by increasing the size of the battery in the i3. Something that is not very difficult to do.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> And i am saying that no one cross shopped these two, so they do not really "compete" with each other


Which is completely irrelevant to whether BMW is behind Tesla or not.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> what they demonstrated is that they are capable of producing an inferior vehicle.


Where was Tesla's Model 3 equivalent four years ago?


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> So why didn't they? There is close to 500K customers waiting for a chance to buy one?


I assume because BMW hasn't finalized such a vehicle yet.


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## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> What else can it possibly mean?


It can mean that BMW hasn't decided to build one. Or hasn't decided what they want to build. It doesn't automatically imply they cannot build one.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> The missing parameter is the *weights*, e.g i3 is 2700-2900lb(with or w/o extender), Model 3 200-mile range one is around 3500lb, and the Model S 70 is 4400lb.
> 
> This already shows that Model 3 is a better car than i3:
> 1. it is 600-800lb heavier than i3, but still gets better Wh/mile than i3
> 2. it has 100+ miles of extra range(even if compared to i3 with 33kW and 114-mile electric-only range). Do note the extra weight probably contributes to the extra range.


So the larger battery capacity is not a factor? It's all about weight?


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> "BMW can do the same", as in putting battery pack in the chassis, e.g. i3. But BMW is using G30(3-series) platform instead of i-platform to combat Model 3, and than G20 platform needs to support both ICE and EV.
> 
> *So in the context of "BMW can do the same" by also placing batteries in the chassis(used by both EV and ICE), there will be design issue on how to make use of that space when no battery pack is needed in ICE.
> 
> *Just imagine the whole car's performance and handling is tuned with 800lb batteries in the chassis to hit 50/50, aligning torque, CG specs for EV. Now that chassis is shared with ICE with no battery pack, how are the 50/50, aligning torque, and CG affected?


Why do you continue to insist it must be the same chassis? Having said that if that's your criteria that's a different issue.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> That's a good question.
> 
> It appears BMW i3 was released to match with other 100-mile range EVs, and now BMW plans to have a pure electric version of G20 to fend off Model 3(which is ahead of BMW in terms of delivery).
> 
> ...


IMO the i3 was more of a proof of concept vehicle which allowed BMW to get real world experience with EV technology. I don't believe BMW ever expected it to be a real competitor to even other < 100 mile range EVs such as the Leaf.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> The i3 was first produced in 2013...four years ago. Were people buying Model 3's four years ago? *Technology has changed making 200+ mile EVs a reality. *Something that didn't exist when the i3 was conceived / released.
> 
> I'm not saying it's trivial but BMW already has experience, and offerings, in the EV market. To listen to others on this forum you'd get the impression they haven't done a thing.





PK2348 said:


> Four years ago people were buying Model S. Your statement is incorrect.





sunny5280 said:


> Only if you ignore the fact I was referring to the Model 3:
> 
> "Were people buying *Model 3's *four years ago?"


I did not ignore anything. You made a statement above that technology did not exist. That statement is incorrect. Admit it.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Which is completely irrelevant to whether BMW is behind Tesla or not.


i agree that its irrelevant. I was only pointing out your incorrect assertion that i8 competes with Model S


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Where was Tesla's Model 3 equivalent four years ago?


Where was BMW's equivalent to Model S four years ago? Tesla had technology for 200 mile EV as of four years ago, BMW still does not as of today.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> I assume because BMW hasn't finalized such a vehicle yet.


Is your assumption based on any sort of data or just wishful thinking?


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> It can mean that BMW hasn't decided to build one. Or hasn't decided what they want to build. It doesn't automatically imply they cannot build one.


It can also mean that instead they are working on vehicles powered by magic fuel generated from unicorns. Just as plausible as options you presented.

You are grasping for straws trying to argue against obvious


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> I did not ignore anything. You made a statement above that technology did not exist. That statement is incorrect. Admit it.


You ignored I was referring to the Model 3. Period.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> But the following are your words not mine:
> 
> "You also made a statement below, which is 100% incorrect."


"Technology has changed making 200+ mile EVs a reality. Something that didn't exist when the i3 was conceived / released."

Quoted statement above was made by you and is incorrect. What is your argument here?


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> No, you did not.


Maybe i am not understanding your question then? It looks answered to me


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> *The same chassis makes sense,* as it saves costs. Do note that F30 is a chassis, while i3 is another chassis, the former custom built for ICE, while the latter custom built for EV.


It may very well make sense but that's a completely different argument than "BMW is behind in EV technology". If you're going to insist upon the same chassis then BMW has a constraint Tesla did not. Model S or 3 are not using an existing chassis for which Tesla intends to use for ICE models.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> You failed to answer my question. That question was:
> 
> "So the larger battery capacity is not a factor?"


The larger battery capacity is a factor if it has no increase in size and weight.

Adding larger battery capacity can be a challenge to fit in the extra size and weight in the same chassis.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> No, we don't. That is your (hence the words "YOUR argument...") position not mine.


Maybe we can agree to disagree then. Its going in circles and needs to stop.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> Maybe i am not understanding your question then? It looks answered to me


I've asked two questions of you:


"Is your conclusion BMW is behind based on any sort of data or just wishful thinking?"
You don't believe EV technology has improved since four years ago? 
I have not seen an answer to either one of them.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> The larger battery capacity is a factor if it has no increase in size and weight.


Then why do they make larger capacity batteries then? Because they need to weigh the vehicle down more?



namelessman said:


> Adding larger battery capacity can be a challenge to fit in the extra size and weight in the same chassis.


Drop the whole "same chassis" argument. It's a constraint you're placing on BMW which you are not placing on Tesla. It's a foolish constraint when we're talking about if BMW could make a Model 3 equivalent (unless Tesla intends to offer the Model 3 chassis with an ICE).


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> It may very well make sense but that's a completely different argument than "BMW is behind in EV technology". If you're going to insist upon the same chassis then BMW has a constraint Tesla did not. Model S or 3 are not using an existing chassis for which *Tesla intends to use for ICE models*.


BMW does announce a 2019 pure electric Mini 3-door hatch, so that same chassis supports electric, gasoline, and diesel. The rumored range for that is 200+ miles.

Tesla intends to use for ICE models? Has Telsa announced any ICE products?


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

PK2348 said:


> Data, it is based on the *fact* that there is a huge demand for such a vehicle and BMW is not offering one. Solid as rock.





sunny5280 said:


> I have no insight into BMW's business plans. Now I ask you: Is your conclusion BMW is behind based on any sort of data or just wishful thinking?





sunny5280 said:


> I've asked two questions of you:
> 
> 
> "Is your conclusion BMW is behind based on any sort of data or just wishful thinking?"
> ...


The answer to first one is above. Once more.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Drop the whole "same chassis" argument. It's a constraint you're placing on BMW which you are not placing on Tesla. It's a foolish constraint when we're talking about if BMW could make a Model 3 equivalent (unless Tesla intends to offer the Model 3 chassis with an ICE).


BMW announces that the same chassis on 2019 Mini will support pure electric, gasoline, and diesel. It is not a foolish constraint, as BMW is going to do it.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> I've asked two questions of you:
> 
> 
> "Is your conclusion BMW is behind based on any sort of data or just wishful thinking?"
> ...


Again, i did not make an assertion that technology did not improve in 4 years. I disputed your assertion that technology for 200 mile EV did not exist 4 years ago. Because it did exist and was available for sale, but not from BMW


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Then why do they make larger capacity batteries then? Because they need to weigh the vehicle down more?


Larger capacity is a trade off among weight, space, and range.

That's the engineering challenge BMW needs to solve, esp. when BMW attempts to use the same chassis for electric, gas, and diesel, as they plan to do for 2019 Mini.


----------



## RCorney (Feb 9, 2011)

I considered the change to a Model 3 for sure. My daily commute is short enough that I would have no range anxiety and we have another car to use for long trips where we don't have to plan recharge station locations. The Model S and Model X are not my style. I like the styling (exterior at least) of the Model 3 to consider it. Never liked the Volt or Leaf or the other weird looking all-electric vehicles. Mentioning Toyota's "Prxxx" is like profanity in my book. I drove a Model X and was utterly amazed at the speed and ability to nearly drive itself. Ultimately, when it came down to the actual purchase, price on a 3 year old car versus brand new won out.

Here in California, the building code is requiring EV stations be installed based on the number of parking spaces your business has. Gas stations are everywhere. Its only a matter of time when we will have EV stations more readily available to gas stations.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> The answer to first one is above. Once more.


I was unable to find it. Can you please quote it and a reference to it?


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> Again, i did not make an assertion that technology did not improve in 4 years.


Then your statement that my statement is wrong was, well, wrong.



PK2348 said:


> I disputed your assertion that technology for 200 mile EV did not exist 4 years ago. Because it did exist and was available for sale, but not from BMW


Then where was Tesla's Model 3 equivalent from four years ago?


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> BMW announces that the same chassis on 2019 Mini will support pure electric, gasoline, and diesel. It is not a foolish constraint, as BMW is going to do it.


It is when you're comparing it to a model which doesn't have such a constraint.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

namelessman said:


> Larger capacity is a trade off among weight, space, and range.


Again you failed to answer the question:

"So the larger battery capacity is not a factor?"

At least directly. Indirectly, by lack of answering, you've acknowledge it is a factor.



namelessman said:


> That's the engineering challenge BMW needs to solve, esp. when BMW attempts to use the same chassis for electric, gas, and diesel, as they plan to do for 2019 Mini.


Again: Irrelevant. That is unless you're going to compare it to Tesla's common ICE / EV platform. Are you making such a comparison?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

RCorney said:


> I considered the change to a Model 3 for sure. My daily commute is short enough that I would have no range anxiety and we have another car to use for long trips where we don't have to plan recharge station locations. The Model S and Model X are not my style. I like the styling (exterior at least) of the Model 3 to consider it. Never liked the Volt or Leaf or the other weird looking all-electric vehicles. Mentioning Toyota's "Prxxx" is like profanity in my book. I drove a Model X and was utterly amazed at the speed and ability to nearly drive itself. Ultimately, when it came down to the actual purchase, price on a 3 year old car versus brand new won out.
> 
> Here in California, the building code is requiring EV stations be installed based on the number of parking spaces your business has. Gas stations are everywhere. Its only a matter of time when we will have EV stations more readily available to gas stations.


So technically one day Levi's Stadium or AT&T Park will be populated with EV stations? Which CA state department decides on the ratio of EV to parking spaces?


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> I was unable to find it. Can you please quote it and a reference to it?


it is based on the fact that there is a huge demand for such a vehicle and BMW is not offering one.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Then your statement that my statement is wrong was, well, wrong.
> 
> Then where was Tesla's Model 3 equivalent from four years ago?


Which part of my statement is wrong? You said technology did not exists, in realty it did. You were wrong.

What does Model 3 equivalent 4 years ago has to do with anything?

You are giving me a headache !!!


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> This is not valid. Technology involved in making a pick up is old, tested and widely available to anyone interested. Pick ups do not fit BMWs profile as a company. EV certainly does.
> 
> By the way, MB has a pick up in the works, but they also make lorries so it fits them better.


Your argument is:


There is demand for vehicles like the Model 3
Given there is demand BMW would be offering one
As BMW is not offering one BMW is incapable of producing one

Now let's apply that same "logic" to pickup trucks:


There is demand for pickup trucks
Given there is demand BMW would be offering one
As BMW is not offering one BMW is incapable of producing one

When presented to you like this you recognize how foolish your argument is.


----------



## 181562 (Feb 1, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> Cost is irrelevant in this argument. We are arguing who is ahead in this technology.


It is a factor. Having said that I have seen no evidence to demonstrate Tesla is ahead in this technology.


----------



## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

sunny5280 said:


> < stuff>





PK2348 said:


> < stuff>


Hey, guys, give it up and let the thread have some useful posts again. Page after page of "no", "yes" isn't friendly to other posters, those of us hoping for something fresh, etc.

Take it offline.


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sunny5280 said:


> Your argument is:
> 
> 
> There is demand for vehicles like the Model 3
> ...


No, what i see is how foolish your argument is. You are comparing apples to oranges.

Pick up truck market is well established with long time players. It would be extremely hard for BMW to compete and be profitable.

EV market is not established and a huge market share is up for grabs. If they had a product it would be offered for sale.


----------



## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

PK2348 said:


> This is not valid. Technology involved in making a pick up is old, tested and widely available to anyone interested. Pick ups do not fit BMWs profile as a company. EV certainly does.
> 
> By the way, MB has a pick up in the works, but they also make lorries so it fits them better.


The point is that it's entirely likely they made a business decision not to pursue EV at the time. Especially having tied up years and probably billions in high profile energy cell vehicles that never went to market. I haven't seen a status on that effort in a very long time and don't know if it finally died. They had that technology for years, but solving the fuel distribution network was a major challenge.

The i8 fits BMW as version of a supercar, but with an electric engine. The i3 was almost certainly always an experimental, near toy, although it's also a very nice urban vehicle, especially in Europe.

And BMW really doesn't have to invest in the technology that Tesla has developed; Musk "gave away" the Tesla technology by opening all its patents back in 2014. Tesla has to get the battery thing "right" to continue it's business model and maybe eventually make a buck. If I'm BMW, MB, Audi, etc., I'd let them, then adopt. There's enough angst in this thread about range anxiety, etc., which may well represent a large portion of the buying public, to wait and let this sort out. Meanwhile, they put a toe in the water with plug-in hybrids and are now moving towards an all electric Mini.

This thread has turned into a Monty Python sketch. I'll have an argument, please...


----------



## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

floydarogers said:


> Hey, guys, give it up and let the thread have some useful posts again. Page after page of "no", "yes" isn't friendly to other posters, those of us hoping for something fresh, etc.
> 
> Take it offline.


You are right.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> Because its battery capacity is 2.6 less than the Model 3. Increase the battery capacity to the same amount as the Model 3 and, unsurprisingly, the i3 would achieve the same range. Why does this need explaining?
> 
> BINGO! Thank you for finally acknowledging BMW is working on a harder problem compared to Tesla.


Do note when i3 battery capacity is increased by 50%, range only goes up by 33%. It is possible too that BMW can match the range of Model 3 but with 10% extra weight, but festers know what extra weight does to CG and 50/50 and handling such. 

So BMW chooses to work on a harder problem than Tesla, while Tesla has a lead of at least one year, probably two, on pure EV platform.

Does this acknowledge that BMW is behind Tesla on EV tech?


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

PK2348 said:


> You are right.


Yes he is. You and Sunny have hijacked this thread for 4-5 pages. Time to stop now.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sunny5280 said:


> BMW i3: 18.8kWh, range: 81 miles, 232 Wh/mile
> Nissan Leaf: 24 kWh, range 73 miles, 328 Wh/mile
> Chevy Volt: 16 kWh, range 15 miles, 1,066 Wh/mile
> Prius Prime: 8.8 kWh, range 25 miles, 352 Wh/mile
> ...


This table is somewhat apple and orange and banana, as in pure EV, hybrid, and battery + range extender. 

But why is Bolt EV with 238-mile range not selling 200k to 300k units a year, while Model 3 has 500k reservation?


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

namelessman said:


> This table is somewhat apple and orange and banana, as in pure EV, hybrid, and battery + range extender.
> 
> But why is Bolt EV with 238-mile range not selling 200k to 300k units a year, while Model 3 has 500k reservation?


Tesla has become an aspirational brand and it's always been a luxury car maker for the people who could always afford a 7 series or S class..... 
Now reduce the price tag and the entry fees and you see things like those nearly 450,000 Model 3 preorders.

Take into account that basically anyone could place a order just for the 'heck of it' and get refunded later as tens of thousands have done so already.....
.....on the other hand, where else could Elon get a $450,000,000 NO INTEREST loan from....?


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

I kinda pity Tesla. They are the Guinea pigs...and when they prefect the business model, the big three could very well undercut and envelope them. Elon won't walk away empty handed though. I hope he has patented every innovation that has come out of it. Why should the big three benefit from his vision and bravery at taking on such a massive endeavor?


Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

FCBayern///M4 said:


> I kinda pity Tesla. They are the Guinea pigs...and when they prefect the business model, the big three could very well undercut and envelope them. Elon won't walk away empty handed though. I hope he has patented every innovation that has come out of it. Why should the big three benefit from his vision and bravery at taking on such a massive endeavor?
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


I'm not sure of this. Tesla is more than a EV, it's an identifiable brand name associated with high tech vehicles. No matter what GM, Ford or maybe even BMW does in this market, they are not primarily associated with EV's.

Look at the lack of success GM has had with the Volt. Which car is more desirable, a $40,000.00 Volt or a $40,000.00 Tesla 3? It's like comparing the Buick Regal GS to a 3 series. The sales results tell the story.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> Tesla has become an aspirational brand and it's always been a luxury car maker for the people who could always afford a 7 series or S class.....
> Now reduce the price tag and the entry fees and you see things like those nearly 450,000 Model 3 preorders.
> 
> Take into account that basically anyone could place a order just for the 'heck of it' and get refunded later as tens of thousands have done so already.....
> .....on the other hand, where else could Elon get a $450,000,000 NO INTEREST loan from....?


There is truth that brand matters, but still Bolt's sluggish sales do not look promising for $35k to $60k "mass market" EV ....

Tesla's advantage seems to be singularly committed to EV, while many others(including BMW) are hedging between ICE and EV. BMW has its i-platform but the next product will be in 2020, so that will be 3 years behind Tesla. In addition, the efforts to develop ICE + EV shared chassis will not be straight forward for BMW.

The saving grace for BMW seems to be, if $35k to $60k "mass market" EV is a dud, of course then BMW still has its fair share of ICE market.

But Tesla seems to follow Apple's playbook so far, and history showed how Apple bulldozed everyone else while breaking out from niche to mainstream, so Tesla will be interesting to watch.


----------



## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

FCBayern///M4 said:


> I kinda pity Tesla. They are the Guinea pigs...and when they prefect the business model, the big three could very well undercut and envelope them. Elon won't walk away empty handed though. I hope he has patented every innovation that has come out of it. Why should the big three benefit from his vision and bravery at taking on such a massive endeavor?


*Dude!* Again, they said the same thing about Apple.

See, Tesla got what no GM, Ford, or Chrysler's had for 5 decades: *Upper class cachet*


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## mundo74 (Oct 8, 2005)

I'll bet that if the i3 should get a 300 mile range there would be no lines to buy one. Design matters too.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

mundo74 said:


> I'll bet that if the i3 should get a 300 mile range there would be no lines to buy one. Design matters too.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


Don't forget that most companies can keep up production with demand as their production infrastructure is already in place before introduction of a new model.
The relevance of this sales number is seriously muddied by a number of factors, in particular, the upcoming expiration of federal subsidies for Tesla Motors, probably well before the current orders are all filled. After a manufacturer sells 200k electric vehicles, the subsidies drop and then end, implying that well over 100k of the current orders will receive reduced or no subsidies. Since the orders can be cancelled without penalty, there is a possibility that those not receiving the full subsidy will rethink their purchases. But how many won't be clear until the car starts being delivered.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> \After a manufacturer sells 200k electric vehicles, the subsidies drop and then end, implying that well over 100k of the current orders will receive reduced or no subsidies. Since the orders can be cancelled without penalty, there is a possibility that those not receiving the full subsidy will rethink their purchases. But how many won't be clear until the car starts being delivered.


T be specifc, beyond the first 200k units, the credit starts to phase out, namely, down to 50% first 2 quarters, then down to 25% the next 2 quarters, and then 0%(gone) after 1 year of crossing 200k.

So in theory, all 500k reserved units can be eligible for 100%, 50%, or 25% of that $7500 dependent on how many cars Tesla can churn out.


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## mundo74 (Oct 8, 2005)

Dio///M said:


> Don't forget that most companies can keep up production with demand as their production infrastructure is already in place before introduction of a new model.
> The relevance of this sales number is seriously muddied by a number of factors, in particular, the upcoming expiration of federal subsidies for Tesla Motors, probably well before the current orders are all filled. After a manufacturer sells 200k electric vehicles, the subsidies drop and then end, implying that well over 100k of the current orders will receive reduced or no subsidies. Since the orders can be cancelled without penalty, there is a possibility that those not receiving the full subsidy will rethink their purchases. But how many won't be clear until the car starts being delivered.


I get it but the i3 is a clunky old blackberry and the model 3 is the iPhone. Even after practically giving the blackberry away nobody wanted them.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mundo74 said:


> I get it but the i3 is a clunky old blackberry and the model 3 is the iPhone. Even after practically giving the blackberry away nobody wanted them.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


That can be the reason why BMW does not plan to aggressively expand i-platform, but instead plan to offer pure electric on Mini, and possibly 3-series, as those so far have mass appeal.

But again, Mini and 3-series haven't gone up against Model 3 yet until now design wise, so it will be a trying time for BMW in next 6-12 months when Model 3 ramps up.

That ties back to the thread title, is Model 3 a 3-series killer, in the context of draining 3-series customer base?

There is an article quoted in early posts saying 20 out of 100 Model 3 reservations are current 3-series owners, that cannot be good news to BMW brass ...


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## mundo74 (Oct 8, 2005)

namelessman said:


> That can be the reason why BMW does not plan to aggressively expand i-platform, but instead plan to offer pure electric on Mini, and possibly 3-series, as those so far have mass appeal.
> 
> But again, Mini and 3-series haven't gone up against Model 3 yet until now design wise, so it will be a trying time for BMW in next 6-12 months when Model 3 ramps up.
> 
> ...


I agree. The i3 was a swing and miss. A weird looking skinny wheel 2 +1 door that does not fit nicely into normal life. Remember the last time huge lines made headlines for a product and you can draw parallels to the 500k line for the model3.

The first iPhone was not great, it was slow and expensive but what it offered was a clean break from the past and a glimpse into the future. And Samsung made a boat load by copying them while Nokia and blackberry kept believing their analyst that it was a passing fad.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mundo74 said:


> I agree. The i3 was a swing and miss. A weird looking skinny wheel 2 +1 door that does not fit nicely into normal life. Remember the last time huge lines made headlines for a product and you can draw parallels to the 500k line for the model3.
> 
> The first iPhone was not great, it was slow and expensive but what it offered was a clean break from the past and a glimpse into the future. And Samsung made a boat load by copying them while Nokia and blackberry kept believing their analyst that it was a passing fad.
> 
> Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


It is common in tech that companies(e.g. Nokia) "listen" to the customers, and end up missing disruptive shifts. In a way, BMW did attempt to break into EV markets by investing 2B euro into i-platform. A big chunk of that money was spent on CFRP, which is a great tech, but unfortunately Tesla picked self driving tech instead, and it happens customers want self driving a lot more than CFRP ....


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## mundo74 (Oct 8, 2005)

namelessman said:


> It is common in tech that companies(e.g. Nokia) "listen" to the customers, and end up missing disruptive shifts. In a way, BMW did attempt to break into EV markets by investing 2B euro into i-platform. A big chunk of that money was spent on CFRP, which is a great tech, but unfortunately Tesla picked self driving tech instead, and it happens customers want self driving a lot more than CFRP ....


You're right. Listening to customers would have only resulted in a slightly better flip phone or a nicer keyboard on the blackberry with more shortcut keys. You can't leave innovation to customer focus groups that only can go on what they currently see.

After investing all that cash into carbon fiber I still don't get it that tesla and Chevy can build a conventional steel and aluminium car with 3 times the range.

The efforts of companies building "green" cars such as the i3 and hydrogen Mira (mirage) and the vaporware BMW I next just tells me their hearts are not into this stuff and are either hedging or greenwashing their brand in a me too fashion.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

mundo74 said:


> I agree. The i3 was a swing and miss. A weird looking skinny wheel 2 +1 door that does not fit nicely into normal life.


By *GUM*, sir!

The i3 is an excellent alternative to any Smart Car, Spark, Leaf, Insight, etc....a long list of New Age transport! Yes. Mildly popular here, and smash European hit, i3 is well positioned for success any time now. Please view for Winter operation:

https://youtu.be/UqUWV_0o9GI


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> By *GUM*, sir!
> 
> The i3 is an excellent alternative to any Smart Car, Spark, Leaf, Insight, etc....a long list of New Age transport! Yes. Mildly popular here, and smash European hit, i3 is well positioned for success any time now. Please view for Winter operation:
> 
> https://youtu.be/UqUWV_0o9GI


The i3 handles pretty good and outruns many other cars(including bimmers) 0-40. The steering wheel can be much improved by swapping in a M-sport steering wheel, and swapping in 225/50R17 should improve curb appeal too.


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## mundo74 (Oct 8, 2005)

namelessman said:


> The i3 handles pretty good and outruns many other cars(including bimmers) 0-40. The steering wheel can be much improved by swapping in a M-sport steering wheel, and swapping in 225/50R17 should improve curb appeal too.


I respect your guys opinions but in my not so humble opinion this car is still a swing and miss.

The only way I can see improving this car is to get a Chevy bolt or model 3. All that expensive carbon fiber for 114 mile range is laughable compared to 238 miles with steel construction. The i3 was born at a time when carmakers were not serious about electric cars and weren't interested in selling en mass so they deliberately made it uglier than a prius (hard thing to do) and gave it a range anxiety 80 miles.
They should kill one of their 3/4 series variants and completely redesign without compromise an electric car.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G925A using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

sunny5280 said:


> Which is completely irrelevant.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mundo74 said:


> I respect your guys opinions but in my not so humble opinion this car is still a swing and miss.
> 
> The only way I can see improving this car is to get a Chevy bolt or model 3. All that expensive carbon fiber for 114 mile range is laughable compared to 238 miles with steel construction. The i3 was born at a time when carmakers were not serious about electric cars and weren't interested in selling en mass so they deliberately made it uglier than a prius (hard thing to do) and gave it a range anxiety 80 miles.
> They should kill one of their 3/4 series variants and completely redesign without compromise an electric car.


It is possible that BMW will have a future 3/4-series product that is based on G20 chassis but optimized for EV.

In fact that makes lots of sense as a "variant" can be based on G20 to save cost, but custom enough to not mix ICE and EV characteristics.


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## graphicjunkie (Nov 15, 2016)

"infrastructure"...

My personal problem with this is I read how some of these bigger cities already suffer "brown outs". Yet we are going to add a ton of charging stations across the nation to an already seemingly lacking infrastructure. That to me doesn't make sense to further tax an already fragile energy platform. Seems like they need to have a radical improvement there before it could support it. Especially since, in order to make it a viable option for many if not most consumers, all your charging stations need to be "supercharger" stations which would represent a larger drain than a normal charging station.

If you ask me, the RIGHT answer is quick swap-able battery packs. 
Ironically what swayed me AWAY from the electric car industry is my electric weed trimmer. I was ALL about shopping for a Tesla before I bought my 3 series. Until the day we came back from vacation and my weeds had gone nuts. Where my trimmer normally could do the full yard in one charge, the weeds caused me to not be able to finish all at once. Then I had to wait for the minimum 30 charge period. My mind went straight to my commute, and the desire for an electric car came to a screeching halt. 

This would also take care of the power bleed that the current batteries have, since the batteries would be refurbished as needed. From my understanding, not long after being driven off the lot, the overall longevity of the battery begins to greatly diminish. 

Can't beat the diesel! :thumbup:


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

The charge leak is very minimal according to various articles.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

graphicjunkie said:


> Ironically what swayed me AWAY from the electric car industry is my electric weed trimmer. I was ALL about shopping for a Tesla before I bought my 3 series. Until the day we came back from vacation and my weeds had gone nuts. Where my trimmer normally could do the full yard in one charge, the weeds caused me to not be able to finish all at once. Then I had to wait for the minimum 30 charge period. My mind went straight to my commute, and the desire for an electric car came to a screeching halt.


Well, could you score a hybrid?

Gonna be the sweet spot for Autonomy, as stands now. Think: You are a passenger....comfort + low op cost is *king*.

I say, absent new killer charge tech, the golden age of hybrid power it about to dawn.


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## smed melo (Jul 3, 2017)

sunny5280 said:


> You can find a charging station in as many locations as you can a gas station?


doubt that


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> I say, absent new killer charge tech, the golden age of hybrid power it about to dawn.


That is great artwork, any background to it?

To me the i-3 range extender is a great idea on paper, maybe a good option will be 200-milre pure electric range, extendable to 400-mile with 6 gallons of gasoline?


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

mundo74 said:


> I respect your guys opinions but in my not so humble opinion this car is still a swing and miss.
> 
> The only way I can see improving this car is to get a Chevy bolt or model 3. All that expensive carbon fiber for 114 mile range is laughable compared to 238 miles with steel construction. The i3 was born at a time when carmakers were not serious about electric cars and weren't interested in selling en mass so they deliberately made it uglier than a prius (hard thing to do) and gave it a range anxiety 80 miles.
> They should kill one of their 3/4 series variants and completely redesign without compromise an electric car.
> ...


My very old school BMW independent mechanic had an i3 for several years and actually was very happy with it. You can't try to make it an all purpose vehicle, any more than the Nissan Leaf or similar vehicles. The Leaf is an extremely common taxi here in Northern Virginia. The i3 is a little expensive for taxi duty, but both are fine for urban/suburban transport. Both can be charged in as little as a half hour on a fast charger (which are fairly common around here). Neither is going to be the choice for long weekend trips, anymore than a Ford F250 Crew Cab is a good choice for urban areas with underground garages.

I don't think the i3 is a swing and a miss as much as it's a niche product. Clearly most on Bimmerfest (self included) aren't in that niche.


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Neither is going to be the choice for long weekend trips, anymore than a Ford F250 Crew Cab is a good choice for urban areas with underground garages.


So, I guess F250 Crew Cab is about just perfect vehicle to daily drive in Verona, Italy (for example) - they have just about zero underground parking garages 

Sorry, I just had to. IMO, those contraptions belong nowhere else but the farm, underground garages or not.


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## beware_phog (Mar 7, 2003)

Do EV arguments spell the end of gasoline octane arguments? I sure hope not. Those are almost as fun as this thread.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> I don't think the i3 is a swing and a miss as much as it's a niche product. Clearly most on Bimmerfest (self included) aren't in that niche.


The US i3 sales numbers are not that good though:

http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/04/07/heres-last-years-bmw-i3-sales-compared-competition/


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

Mark K said:


> So, I guess F250 Crew Cab is about just perfect vehicle to daily drive in Verona, Italy (for example) - they have just about zero underground parking garages
> 
> Sorry, I just had to. IMO, those contraptions belong nowhere else but the farm, underground garages or not.


So, 20+ years ago, in spite of strong advice bordering on prohibition, I knew people who would choose to send their huge US pickups to Germany for their overseas tours and couldn't park them anywhere but on post...


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

namelessman said:


> The US i3 sales numbers are not that good though:
> 
> http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/04/07/heres-last-years-bmw-i3-sales-compared-competition/


Which suggests to me they overestimated the size of the niche, or there were other reasons (tax incentives in Europe?) for pushing the i3. That's also US sales only; I don't think it does great in Europe, but it probably does better than the US. I agree that it's an odd vehicle!

The Leaf is deceptive as a fair amount of that business is urban taxi sales. The i3 was going to be too expensive for that market in the US. Oddly enough, in Amsterdam, it seemed like half of the taxis on the road were Tesla Model S.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Mark in NoVA said:


> My very old school BMW independent mechanic had an i3 for several years and actually was very happy with it. You can't try to make it an all purpose vehicle, any more than the Nissan Leaf or similar vehicles. The Leaf is an extremely common taxi here in Northern Virginia. The i3 is a little expensive for taxi duty, but both are fine for urban/suburban transport. Both can be charged in as little as a half hour on a fast charger (which are fairly common around here). Neither is going to be the choice for long weekend trips, anymore than a Ford F250 Crew Cab is a good choice for urban areas with underground garages.
> 
> I don't think the i3 is a swing and a miss as much as it's a niche product. Clearly most on Bimmerfest (self included) aren't in that niche.


Exactly. Some want to equate the i3 with Tesla products. The i3 is a city car.


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

Mark in NoVA said:


> So, 20+ years ago, in spite of strong advice bordering on prohibition, I knew people who would choose to send their huge US pickups to Germany for their overseas tours and couldn't park them anywhere but on post...


Oh, I know. I used to live in Verona-Vicenza area with heavy US military presence and some of those even ended up in the hands of local yahoos who didn't know how to better spend one average monthly salary than to drive RAM truck on roads 15 feet wide with traffic allowed in both directions 

Stating that the guy looked ludicrous in it is a moot point. I am 100% sure he thought people were falling on their knees in awe of him while he was driving by. They weren't. There is a verb describing reflux overflow from one's stomach, I cannot think of technical name momentarily - but I am pretty sure that is what they were doing while on their knees


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Which suggests to me they overestimated the size of the niche, or there were other reasons (tax incentives in Europe?) for pushing the i3. That's also US sales only; I don't think it does great in Europe, but it probably does better than the US. I agree that it's an odd vehicle!
> 
> The Leaf is deceptive as a fair amount of that business is urban taxi sales. The i3 was going to be too expensive for that market in the US. Oddly enough, in Amsterdam, it seemed like half of the taxis on the road were Tesla Model S.


i3 on paper did look like an improvement over Leaf given the range extender's 180-mile range, but that put i3 in a "neither here nor there" territory between Leaf and Tesla products, and the market decided against i3.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

.

Blue skies in Fremont! *Tesla demand is high.*


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> That is great artwork, any background to it?


Something seen online - derived of Assassin's Creed, maybe. No clue who the artist was.

.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Random Thoughts:

Over the past month am starting to see more Chevy Bolts running around the Bay Area than I have seen in the past 6 months. Tells me the Bolt is gaining traction in the $35-43K price point of the market place. Are these, Disgruntled model 3 buyers that need something today instead of sitting on TBD wait list?

The I-3 is a niche vehicle with a funky design. It's also expensive at $56K for the top of the line model. Overall it is a ****ty value proposition. However, after test driving one, it's a real BMW and it's fun to drive around town. It tops out at 95 MPH on the freeway. The range extender is a great idea as the I-3 will never leave you stranded or concerned about range anxiety. New, the I-3 is a horrible value but in the used market they fall on their face and are a screaming value. I'm planning on buying an I-3 in the next 18 months and can find them all day long between $15-20K with the range extender option.

For the next 5 years we are gong to stay in an era of cheap gas. The US is now oil/energy independent and there are proven oil reserves that will last for decades. The fracking industry has changed the financial landscape for justifying EV's. Even here in the socialist republic of CA, gas is still a bit over $3.

At the moment Tesla does have the most advanced EV's in the marketplace. However, as a car company they are losing their ass and are unprofitable. Their competitors are numerous and profitable. They are dabbling in the EV market because at the moment nobody is making a profit selling EV's. They are all money losers. At such time as the market turns more towards EV's Tesla is going to be overwhelmed.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bmwexpat said:


> Random Thoughts:
> 
> Over the past month am starting to see more Chevy Bolts running around the Bay Area than I have seen in the past 6 months. Tells me the Bolt is gaining traction in the $35-43K price point of the market place. Are these, Disgruntled model 3 buyers that need something today instead of sitting on TBD wait list?
> 
> ...


$15k to $20k for a low-mileage 3-yr old i3 is not bad at all. The new car lease is not too bad, a coworker got one for $350 monthly 36-month 10k/yr after credits and $0 down.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Range extender extends range by a bit. It doesn't completely solve the "being left stranded" problem. It's not like a plug in hybrid where you can fill gas and drive forever.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Range extender extends range by a bit. It doesn't completely solve the "being left stranded" problem. It's not like a plug in hybrid where you can fill gas and drive forever.


Does range extender guarantee extra 100 miles even battery is down to 0? If so it is a matter of frequent refill every 100 miles, no? That's explanation from local CAs.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Does range extender guarantee extra 100 miles even battery is down to 0? If so it is a matter of frequent refill every 100 miles, no? That's explanation from local CAs.


It does not. It basically works by charging the battery but when driving the car, the battery drains faster than the REX can charge it. (This was true when the car first came out. I don't know if the new battery changes this.)

And at least the older ones had really bad performance in cold weather. There was one driver who had trouble keeping up with highway speeds while climbing a hill in very cold weather (search the forum for his posts) and BMW said it's normal. He ended up having to go to court to get BMW to buy it back and he won.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> It does not. It basically works by charging the battery but when driving the car, the battery drains faster than the REX can charge it.
> 
> And at least the older ones had really bad performance in cold weather. There was one driver who had trouble keeping up with highway speeds while climbing a hill (search the forum for his posts) and BMW said it's normal. He ended up having to go to court to get BMW to buy it back and he won.


Got it, so it basically "extends" range on freeway by kicking in gasoline engine, and slowing battery drainage, so that the car can get to next plug in spot? This really is a "neither here nor there" solution between EV and plug-in hybrid .... And the sales numbers reflect that.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> This really is a "neither here nor there" solution between EV and plug-in hybrid .... And the sales numbers reflect that.


Yes, indeed. You have a vibrating engine under your butt, but you can still be stranded. :/


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i3#Range_extender_option_.28REx.29



> The i3 performance in range-extending mode may be more limited than when it is running on battery power, as BMW clarified the range extender is designed not for long-distance travel but purely as an emergency backup to keep the electric system going until the next recharging location. According to BMW, at the beginning of the i3 release, the use of range-extender was much more than the carmaker expected, more than 60%. Over time it has decreased significantly, with some people almost never using it, and by 2016 it is being regularly used in fewer than 5% of i3s.


Perhaps my description in the earlier post was a bit off. Instead of allowing the battery to drain faster, the car will lower its performance to slow battery drain. IMO, that is actually unsafe where you get into situations where the car does not respond as expected to pressing the accelerator.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Regarding the range extender, you guys are incorrect. It will power the car in all driving conditions for as long as you have gas to run the 2 cylinder engine.

The first time I took the I-3 out we could not figure out what a humming noise from the back of the car was. After we got back to the dealership, we figured out that we took the car out with less than a 5% charge in the battery. The car was running 100% on the range extender. I'd taken the car out for a 20 mile test drive and hit 95 on the freeway on just the range extender. On battery power the I-3 claims about a 125 range. The range extender is good for about another 100 before you need to fill-up the 2.5 gallon tank. If you are going farther than that just pull into a gas station and put in 2 gallons of fuel and you are good to go for anther 100 miles.

As to cost of used I-3's. I'm seeing used 2016's for under $25K with 10-12K miles on them. Give it another 6 months and they will be under $20K, Used EV's fall on their face in the used market.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

bmwexpat said:


> At the moment Tesla does have the most advanced EV's in the marketplace. However, as a car company they are losing their ass and are unprofitable. Their competitors are numerous and profitable. They are dabbling in the EV market because at the moment nobody is making a profit selling EV's. They are all money losers. At such time as the market turns more towards EV's Tesla is going to be overwhelmed.


Who's making profitable EV's? Not hybrids....


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## elistan (Sep 4, 2012)

If my Google results are correct, the i3 has a 33 kWh battery, the range extender has a 2.4 gallon fuel tank, and the EPA has established 33.7 kWh as the equivalent to one gallon of gasoline, meaning REX provides an additional 245% available energy - however it adds less than 100% additional range which reflects the inefficiency of a 0.6 liter engine burning gasoline to generate electricity. As that 2.4 gallons adds an additional 81 miles of range (per BMW's page) that comes out to 33.75 mpg for the REX bit, about the same as a regular petrol 3-series. Assuming somebody goes the 205 mile max distance of an i3 REX without recharging or refueling, that's an MPGE of 60, compared to the non-REXes about 124 (over a shorter distance, of course.)


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

elistan said:


> If my Google results are correct, the i3 has a 33 kWh battery, the range extender has a 2.4 gallon fuel tank, and the EPA has established 33.7 kWh as the equivalent to one gallon of gasoline, meaning REX provides an additional 245% available energy - however it adds less than 100% additional range which reflects the inefficiency of a 0.6 liter engine burning gasoline to generate electricity. As that 2.4 gallons adds an additional 81 miles of range (per BMW's page) that comes out to 33.75 mpg for the REX bit, about the same as a regular petrol 3-series. Assuming somebody goes the 205 mile max distance of an i3 REX without recharging or refueling, that's an MPGE of 60, compared to the non-REXes about 124 (over a shorter distance, of course.)


What does non-REX MPGE of 124 miles mean? If REX is not triggered, no gasoline is consumed, right? If so, should the MPGE be infinite?


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> What does non-REX MPGE of 124 miles mean? If REX is not triggered, no gasoline is consumed, right? If so, should the MPGE be infinite?


Mpge refers to power consumption.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Who's making profitable EV's? Not hybrids....


BMW, GM, Ford, etc are profitable car companies. Each of them is losing money on every EV they sell. At this point in time the major auto manufacturers can treat EV's as research/loss leader items as the traditional portions of the company are profitable to offset the loss.

Tesla is bleeding money from 2 out of 3 of their divisions. I see them becoming a battery company, selling to all manufacturers and letting the solar and auto divisions close or be sold off.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Mpge refers to power consumption.


Understood, my thinking is using MPGe(in terms of joule-equivalent between kW and gallon of gasoline) to quantify mixed electric + gasoline usage can be misleading(at least to me).

E.g. instead of 60MPGe with REX, and 124MPGe without REX, it probably will be just as direct to say 0 gallon used for first 114 miles, and 1.9 gallons used to stretch to 180 miles.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bmwexpat said:


> BMW, GM, Ford, etc are profitable car companies. Each of them is losing money on every EV they sell. At this point in time the major auto manufacturers can treat EV's as research/loss leader items as the traditional portions of the company are profitable to offset the loss.
> 
> Tesla is bleeding money from 2 out of 3 of their divisions. I see them becoming a battery company, selling to all manufacturers and letting the solar and auto divisions close or be sold off.


That 1 out 3 divisions that can make money probably will make enough to cover the other 2 and still make boatloads of profits, esp. when that is a captive market with generous government contracts.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i3#Range_extender_option_.28REx.29
> 
> Perhaps my description in the earlier post was a bit off. Instead of allowing the battery to drain faster, the car will lower its performance to slow battery drain. IMO, that is actually unsafe where you get into situations where the car does not respond as expected to pressing the accelerator.


A google research found posts that said i3 can be coded to enabled HSOC at 75% of battery level rather than 5%. The net effect is the gasoline engine can be fired up much sooner than default setting and keep refueling every 50-60 miles can allow i3 to get between LA and SF without charging.


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## RNNY (Nov 2, 2014)

vw2bmw said:


> Hmm, looks like BMW is going to join the party sooner rather than later:
> 
> http://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1086417/bmw-goes-tesla-hunting-in-frankfurt/


I posted this in another thread. It looks like an evolution of the 4 series gran coupe.
Im interested, its about 2 car leases away.


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

RNNY said:


> I posted this in another thread. It looks like an evolution of the 4 series gran coupe.
> Im interested, its about 2 car leases away.


Sorry to repeat the post. 
It does look nice, but as you say, still some years away. And they will offer 12 fully electric models by 2025? Wow.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

vw2bmw said:


> Hmm, looks like BMW is going to join the party sooner rather than later:
> 
> http://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1086417/bmw-goes-tesla-hunting-in-frankfurt/


Very interesting, so it is evolution of i-platform for now. It does seem like BMW is quite behind in this market segment


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> Very interesting, so it is evolution of i-platform for now. It does seem like BMW is quite behind in this market segment


Current market, yes....i3 etc is no match for a Tesla. But electric drive won't be a huge market move - autonomy's the Next Big Thing.

Prediction: *The BMW Propeller Roundel will fulfill it's destiny*....when autonomy comes, VTOL cars are suddenly attractive....no pilot's license needed, currently an unmovable barrier! Zip over slow, terrain following pavement? *You betcha!*


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Prediction: *The BMW Propeller Roundel will fulfill it's destiny*....when autonomy comes, VTOL cars are suddenly attractive....no pilot's license needed, currently an unmovable barrier! Zip over slow, terrain following pavement? *You betcha!*


I'll probably have to rise from the dead to validate that prediction...

(I'm 46)


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

I think the 3 is more of a threat to Smart's. There are going to be eSmart's soon. My tree-hugging, multi-millionaire, hippie cousin is having a crisis of conscious. She can't decide between a Tesla, an eSmart, or a big ole' Range Rover. :rofl:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Autoputzer said:


> I think the 3 is more of a threat to Smart's. There are going to be eSmart's soon. My tree-hugging, multi-millionaire, hippie cousin is having a crisis of conscious. She can't decide between a Tesla, an eSmart, or a big ole' Range Rover. :rofl:


How is 3 a threat to Smart? Are they two different sizes and segments?


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

namelessman said:


> How is 3 a threat to Smart? Are they two different sizes and segments?


Different sizes and different MSRP's, but with Tesla going down-market with the Model 3. But, they're competing for the same customers. Similarly, the car most traded in for a Tesla S is a BMW 5 Series. So, those vastly different cars are competing for the same customers.

The Smart and Tesla are both look-how-green-I-am cars. They're also dedicated urban-suburban cars, not really currently suitable for long road trips. The Smart's two passenger capacity and small trunk make them unsuitable for road trips. The lack of widely available and fast refueling makes the Tesla 2 unsuitable for road trips.

Although a Smart is a lot cheaper than a Tesla 3, the demographics of their customers are similar: well-heeled tree-huggers. My multi-millionaire cousin's current gasoline-powered Smart is her household's third car, and it was bought new. She specifically wants an plug-in electric (Smart or Tesla) the next time around because she can put solar panels on their house's roof to charge it (or a battery to later charge the car).

The success of Tesla and them going down-market with the Tesla 3 are part of why Daimler-Benz is developing the electric Smart. Tesla is directly targeting their customer base.

When you look at the customer bases, a $60k M2 is often directly competing with a $100k to $125k Porsche Carrera. My next and possibly last "nice" car will be one of those two. The "last" part of that is what makes me lean toward a 911.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

As I've previously stated, Tesla is alive thanks to government generosity. Take the subsidies away, and sales will absolutely crash.
A looming question is whether the company is moving toward self-sufficiency and whether they can slash development costs before the public largesse ends.

Tesla and SolarCity continue to report net losses after a decade in business
When government subsidies dry up eventually for Tesla and with strong competition heating up in the all electric sector , (Volvo announced recently that after 2019 ALL their cars will be electric or hybrid) Tesla will be in serious turbulent times.

IT SEEMS LIKE SOME IMPORTANT FOLKS AT THE COMPANY MIGHT BE SEEING THE WRITING ON THE WALL.....

TODAY It's been announced that Teslas vice president of business development is leaving the company.
This is another of several departures at the electric-car maker over the last several months, a critical time for the company.
Chief Financial Officer Jason Wheeler left the company at the beginning of the year.
Also this year, Chris Lattner, who had come from Apple to join Tesla's Autopilot division, left the job after only six months. In December, the director of Autopilot, Sterling Anderson, left Tesla to form a competing start-up with former Google employee Chris Urmson.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztfVoGqW5VU

Is this video authentic? It showcases many interesting concepts.


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## elistan (Sep 4, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> Tesla and SolarCity continue to report net losses after a decade in business


I'm not especially concerned with that. Tesla is making more money per car than it costs them to produce that car - but my understanding is they then plow all that money (and more) back in to the business to expand and develop, rather than realizing that money as a profit. Amazon did the same thing for eight years, including a $1.4 billion loss in 2000, and look at them now.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3972238-tesla-manages-make-21944-per-car-sold


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

elistan said:


> I'm not especially concerned with that. Tesla is making more money per car than it costs them to produce that car - but my understanding is they then plow all that money (and more) back in to the business to expand and develop, rather than realizing that money as a profit. Amazon did the same thing for eight years, including a $1.4 billion loss in 2000, and look at them now.
> 
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/3972238-tesla-manages-make-21944-per-car-sold


If it were not for ZIRP neither of these business models would work. That's the beauty financial engineering. Everyone has forgotten the Tesla Model T which existed long before Musk came to Tesla. But they weren't playing financial engineering games back then...

The losers are anyone who does not play these financial engineering games, typically small businesses and conservative investors.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> If it were not for ZIRP neither of these business models would work. That's the beauty financial engineering. Everyone has forgotten the Tesla Model T which existed long before Musk came to Tesla. But they weren't playing financial engineering games back then...
> 
> The losers are anyone who does not play these financial engineering games, typically small businesses and conservative investors.


What is Tesla Model T?

As far as FE and ZIRP, yes both basically encourages businesses and investors to risk all their eggs to keep up, and my sense is the majority does not participate.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> What is Tesla Model T?
> 
> As far as FE and ZIRP, yes both basically encourages businesses and investors to risk all their eggs to keep up, and my sense is the majority does not participate.


Sorry meant the roadster.


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## smed melo (Jul 3, 2017)

elistan said:


> I'm not especially concerned with that. Tesla is making more money per car than it costs them to produce that car - but my understanding is they then plow all that money (and more) back in to the business to expand and develop, rather than realizing that money as a profit. Amazon did the same thing for eight years, including a $1.4 billion loss in 2000, and look at them now.
> 
> https://seekingalpha.com/article/3972238-tesla-manages-make-21944-per-car-sold


here in s florida a tesla about as useful as **** on a mule-gasoline can be trucked in-electric not so much!


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## elistan (Sep 4, 2012)

smed melo said:


> here in s florida a tesla about as useful as **** on a mule-gasoline can be trucked in-electric not so much!


Sure, but a house with solar panels and a battery pack (both of which Tesla sells) is even better than a gasoline car when all the stations are sold out.

Point being - there are positives and negatives to both, neither one is superior to the other in all situations at all times.


----------



## smed melo (Jul 3, 2017)

elistan said:


> Sure, but a house with solar panels and a battery pack (both of which Tesla sells) is even better than a gasoline car when all the stations are sold out.
> 
> Point being - there are positives and negatives to both, neither one is superior to the other in all situations at all times.


i'm sure solar panels held up well-no broken glass in florida or houston


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

smed melo said:


> i'm sure solar panels held up well-no broken glass in florida or houston


That's an interesting point, although the gas supplies have been hard hit as well.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Sorry meant the roadster.


The roadster was proof of concept and early adaptors paid a big chunk for R&D costs. The Model 3, given the price, probably won't have significant R&D costs offloaded to customers.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

smed melo said:


> i'm sure solar panels held up well-no broken glass in florida or houston


Think horse and carriage :thumbup:


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

https://youtu.be/vYKTTCNUV3o


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Dio///M said:


> One more thing to consider...lol!
> When Tesla's light up, they REALLY light up!!
> 
> WELCOME TO THE FUTURE
> ...


Wow...that sounds entirely unique to Teslas...

"20 Dangerous Cars With The Highest Risk Of Spontaneous Combustion"

http://www.theclever.com/20-dangerous-cars-with-the-highest-risk-of-spontaneous-combustion/

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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

Lithium-ion batteries, ones that are rechargeable, are relatively mild compared to the non-rechargeable lithium batteries. I worked on a project that used some of these that had 1/3 the energy density of dynamite when ignited.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The resale value of Model S seems to be relatively flat(i.e. not much depreciation) from 2 years to 5 years, 2012 being first year of Model S. 

But given battery replacement after 8-year warranty is $30k, does it mean 8-yr old Model S will have net $0 resale value?!?


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

namelessman said:


> The resale value of Model S seems to be relatively flat(i.e. not much depreciation) from 2 years to 5 years, 2012 being first year of Model S.
> 
> But given battery replacement after 8-year warranty is $30k, does it mean 8-yr old Model S will have net $0 resale value?!?


The Tesla battery costs have dome down a lot. But, that cost will only go down so far. I think it's about $12k to $15k now.

I know two long time hybrid owners, one with a Prius and one with an Accord Hybrid. Their battery replacement was $3k to $4k, needed in about eight years. That wiped out all of their gasoline costs savings. They'll never recover the extra costs of the cars when purchased.

Hybrid batteries don't just total fail one day. Instead, the fuel economy of the cars steadily goes down as the cars age. With a Tesla, the symptoms of degraded batteries would be reduced range and increase electrical energy (for recharging).


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

They are building a factory in China.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-strikes-deal-with-shanghai-to-build-factory-in-china-1508670181


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> They are building a factory in China.
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-strikes-deal-with-shanghai-to-build-factory-in-china-1508670181


Tesla just had layoffs in Bay Area .... Are those units from Shanghai factory for Chinese market only?


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Tesla just had layoffs in Bay Area .... Are those units from Shanghai factory for Chinese market only?


Don't know. Article does mention 25% tariff to bring cars to the US. But China is also encouraging electric cars more than any other country, so that may be part of it.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Don't know. Article does mention 25% tariff to bring cars to the US. But China is also encouraging electric cars more than any other country, so that may be part of it.


My impression is that China's electric infrastructure is a lot worse than US, and US is nowhere ready for serious EV adaptation. So this may be mainly a cost cutting move.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

This article has more and is accessible even without subscription.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/business/tesla-plant-in-china-may-be-a-first.html

It mentions the 25% tariff applies to cars sold in China because the factory is located in a free trade zone.



> LMC Automotive, a global consulting firm, estimates that 295,000 battery-electric cars will be sold this year in China, compared with 287,000 in the rest of the world combined.
> 
> The gap may widen. LMC predicts that China***8217;s total will nearly triple in the next two years, while the rest of the world***8217;s will merely double.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

3 month delay https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/11/01/tesla-model-3/822351001/


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

I put in a request to cancel my pre-order.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I put in a request to cancel my pre-order.


So what is the alternative considered, say, Alpha Romeo?


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> So what is the alternative considered, say, Alpha Romeo?


Don't know. Given the unpredictable delays I didn't think Tesla would work for me. I will need to find a replacement around next November/December as I expect to get to 90K+ miles by then. I don't think another F30 (end of production) or G20 (probably arrive too late, supply issues, too new) will work either. I'm a bit concerned about long term prospects of Alfa, but should be better data by then. I may look at an F22 (stick with the devil I know). I'm all over the place.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Don't know. Given the unpredictable delays I didn't think Tesla would work for me. I will need to find a replacement around next November/December as I expect to get to 90K+ miles by then. I don't think another F30 (end of production) or G20 (probably arrive too late, supply issues, too new) will work either. I'm a bit concerned about long term prospects of Alfa, but should be better data by then. I may look at an F22 (stick with the devil I know). I'm all over the place.


F30 EOP prices can be pretty good with lots of discounted options. The 2-series can be a good option too. How about Lexus IS350 for high mileage?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> So what is the alternative considered, say, Alpha Romeo?


Yes! A brand very successful in avoiding a reputation for reliability.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> F30 EOP prices can be pretty good with lots of discounted options. The 2-series can be a good option too. How about Lexus IS350 for high mileage?


I cannot live with the IS350 interior design, especially the mouse-like sliding device.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I cannot live with the IS350 interior design, especially the mouse-like sliding device.


Another option is to lease for 2-3 years and see if Tesla gets its act together. 

A high mileage lease of 90k miles in 3 years may still work at 58% RV and $0.20/mile for those extra 45k($9k extra).


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Interesting tidbit I saw on business news this week. Buried in the announced tax plan is the elimination of the $7500 tax credit for purchasing a new electric vehicle. While the tax plan still has to survive the house and senate and undoubtedly will be altered, I do not see a lot of opposition to eliminating the $7500 credit. If the credit is eliminated it will affect Tesla the most and put the other auto manufactures on a more equal footing with Tesla. Overall this is not good for Tesla.


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## Tirpitz (Sep 10, 2012)

Tesla is the closest to hitting the usage cap for the tax credit. So in some sense they suffer the least if it goes away. Sucks to be one of the companies planning to field EVs that haven't taken much if any advantage of the credit. 

Tesla also have the most brand strength in the EV field which helps mitigate the impact. But yes, even Tesla will feel the impact if the tax credit goes.

I can honestly say I wouldn't have leased an i3 without that $7,500 passed through by BMW. I'm not sure EVs are ready for a sink or swim situation just yet, and with the CARB requirements still in effect the manufacturers might be forced to subsidize the plug-in cars to meet their mandates. Will be interesting times if the credit does end up being killed or significantly decreased.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Tesla is the "brand" in the EV market but they are also a one trick pony that is 100% EV and they continue to hemorrhage money. The $7500 tax credit will affect Tesla a lot more than any other auto maker. Every other automaker is also losing money on every EV that goes out the door. The difference is they can absorb the losses and are still profitable as EV's are less than 1% of their overall sales.

BTW how do you like your i3? I'm considering purchasing a used i3 with range extender next year. I'm seeing where I can buy 2 year old used i3's all day long in the 20K range. To me new EV's are a horrible value proposition but in the used market with 50%+ depreciation, they can make economic sense as a flexible around town car.


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## Tirpitz (Sep 10, 2012)

bmwexpat said:


> BTW how do you like your i3? I'm considering purchasing a used i3 with range extender next year. I'm seeing where I can buy 2 year old used i3's all day long in the 20K range. To me new EV's are a horrible value proposition but in the used market with 50%+ depreciation, they can make economic sense as a flexible around town car.


The i3 is my wife's car. She commutes in it. She is loving it. It is an excellent around town type of car. Small turning radius while still having plenty of interior space.

I was originally aiming to buy a CPO example but in our case getting a 2017 with the bigger battery made the car much more handy. If you are getting a REX version make sure you code it to allow you to hold state of charge before it drops to 5%.

I think a 2014/2015 example for around $20K is a fantastic deal. Recommend you aim for the smaller wheels. The 20" ones seem to have more tire issues. Also if you enjoy music find one with HK Audio. The base system is incredibly pathetic.


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## Rotorblade (Nov 5, 2017)

Model 3 may be a killer for other car models, but, the 3 series would be the last to defeat. It handles like no other.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

post removed


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Well the Model 3 production ramp up(or lack of) will imply meaningful volume no sooner than 2019, provided Tesla will be still in business/independent by then.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

OK, not model 3 related, but some interesting news on battery technology.

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/13/fisker-has-filed-patents-for-solid-state-batteries/


> It has filed patents for solid-state batteries and it expects the batteries to be produced on a mass scale around 2023.
> ...
> Fisker claims the batteries it's developing have an energy density 2.5 times that of current batteries, and they should be capable of providing a *500-mile driving range*. The company also says the batteries could be *recharged in as little as a minute*.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

OK, not model 3 related, but some interesting news on battery technology.

https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/13/fisker-has-filed-patents-for-solid-state-batteries/


> It has filed patents for solid-state batteries and it expects the batteries to be produced on a mass scale around *2023*.
> ...
> Fisker claims the batteries it's developing have an energy density 2.5 times that of current batteries, and they should be capable of providing a *500-mile driving range*. The company also says the batteries could be *recharged in as little as a minute*.


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## Antec900 (Apr 12, 2017)

Seems like model 3 isn***8217;t all that great after all


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## Antec900 (Apr 12, 2017)

Seems like model 3 isn’t all that great after all


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## Thomv (Jan 27, 2012)

Have ridden in a Model 3, it is pretty phenomenal.

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## bimmerbingo (Jul 12, 2014)

Doug Demuro did a review on the Model 3 recently, ****ty car if you ask me. If I was into electrics and was set on a Tesla, I would have paid for the higher end model.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bimmerbingo said:


> Doug Demuro did a review on the Model 3 recently, ****ty car if you ask me. If I was into electrics and was set on a Tesla, I would have paid for the higher end model.


There are far more people who can afford a $40-50K electric than can a $90-100 version.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Doug Demuro said it was a cool car. I don’t think it was overall a negative review 


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## Thomv (Jan 27, 2012)

My wife was going to replace her 328 with a desiel X3, but after riding in the Model 3, put her money down to reserve her spot.

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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

my main concern with the model 3 is quality. given that it's going to be built in a different place, and likely using materials from different suppliers, there's no way to tell if quality will be anything like the first few units. that was my main reason for canceling my order.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> my main concern with the model 3 is quality. given that it's going to be built in a different place, and likely using materials from different suppliers, there's no way to tell if quality will be anything like the first few units. that was my main reason for canceling my order.


So Model 3 will not be built at Fremont plant?


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> So Model 3 will not be built at Fremont plant?


i was mistaken it would move to china but looks like that will take a lot longer (3 years).


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

mr_clueless said:


> i was mistaken it would move to china but looks like that will take a lot longer (3 years).


They have to build another factory. The current one can't handle all of their products including the semi.

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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> They have to build another factory. The current one can***8217;t handle all of their products including the semi.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


The NUMMI plant peaked at 428,633 units in 2006, while Tesla only delivered 83,922 car in 2016, so there is still lots of capacity left in that plant.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> The NUMMI plant peaked at 428,633 units in 2006, while Tesla only delivered 83,922 car in 2016, so there is still lots of capacity left in that plant.


The nummi plant has an old paint shop that needs to be upgraded. Plus have to build 3 separate lines and build a semi in that plant. That too much to ask for.

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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> The nummi plant has an old paint shop that needs to be upgraded. Plus have to build 3 separate lines and build a semi in that plant. That too much to ask for.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Assembly of electric cars should be simpler than ICE cars. There should already be two updated paint lines from 2015, one for parts, one for body.

Also Tesla got city approval to double the size of the factory, shooting for a 500k(versus current 80k+ annual production) annual capacity in that plant.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> Assembly of electric cars should be simpler than ICE cars. There should already be two updated paint lines from 2015, one for parts, one for body.
> 
> Also Tesla got city approval to double the size of the factory, shooting for a 500k(versus current 80k+ annual production) annual capacity in that plant.


In theory yes but look how complex the model X is. Also the model 3 is made out of steel while the other 2 are primarily made out of aluminum. Different construction techniques.

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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

https://youtu.be/LlvYv1SJJEY


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

https://youtu.be/ns_0UTOc6X4


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> ....Tesla got city approval to double the size of the factory, shooting for a 500k(versus current 80k+ annual production) annual capacity in that plant.


Ha! That'll build them out to the property line and they'll need autonomous drive to find remote parking after being dropped off fer work....unless they build UP....there's a thought....


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Reality has kicked in and as predicted , no way near as promised model 3's have been made/delivered. What most folks don't realise is that Tesla needs to keep taking deposits on non-existing vehicles and tech to fund the projects that are behind. The deposits for the Tesla Semi aren’t going to fund that project, they’re being used to get the Model 3 out the door. Then they will take the time to develop the semi. It’s the same with the roadster, and now the promise of a pick-up. He is using future money to fund present day projects. This will force the company to always be financially strapped.
If I could tell Elon Musk anything, it would be to divide his companies into separate entities (Like Google and Alphabet) where he is in charge of R&D. This would allow him to have the grandiose ideas and allow other people to execute them. He will never succeed otherwise.
If I were to make a prediction, I'd say that it's a make-or-break year for Tesla in 2018 and as one of it's main suppliers, like Panasonic strike new deals with other car companies to provide batteries to(_Toyota) , Tesla might need to strike a partnership deal with a proper dedicated car maker to succeed in the business of getting cars to its customers. Recent estimates say that at the current rate of production or even a improved pace, the model 3 will arrive to its customers in decades....
....so to answer the original question of the thread, No the model 3 isn't a threat to the 3 series.
Bmw is preparing to mass-produce electric cars by 2020, with plans to offer 12 different all-electric vehicles in its lineup by 2025.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Dio///M said:


> If I could tell Elon Musk anything, it would be to divide his companies into separate entities (Like Google and Alphabet) where he is in charge of R&D. This would allow him to have the grandiose ideas and allow other people to execute them. He will never succeed otherwise.


Can't drive 5 min without seeing a Tesla 'round here.

Model 3 will eclipse the BMW 3 series. Soon. Any day now.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

.

Saw a Model 3 on Christmas day, Marin County. A baby S!


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

I can see that in the. Bay Area or CA in general because of HOV access in addition to federal tax credit. It will impact ALL entry level luxury makers, not just BMW.


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## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

The Tesla 3 will be the locomotive that will bring Tesla to bankruptcy. Excluding massive investments, they are not making money with a car worth more than twice and the Tesla 3 cost is estimated at about 5/6 or the Tesla S. The more they sell, the more they burn money. It will be liquidated eventually, even if the name Tesla is likely to survive in other hands.


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## Desmocedici (Nov 16, 2016)

Haven't read all 26 pgs but here's my 0.02c

Tesla's have a 98% customer satisfaction rating per Consumer Reports. That's unheard of. Tesla's are going to be the future for many for 2 reasons; convenience and cool factor.

However many ppl don't buy an M3. They don't appreciate the differences btwn an M3 and a regular 3 series. For those who appreciate the mechanical differences; like that they get a LSD, grippier tires and better brakes,,, (ppl who track their cars),,, they would laugh at the thought of a Tesla replacing an M3.... 

For those who buy an M3 b/c of the looks or image they want to convey, or to get attention,,,, I think the Tesla will do that just as well. I can see Tesla's being tricked out w/matte paint, cool wheels etc... to rival the attention (not performance... lol) of an M3.

Would I buy one? Fuq yeah. You couldn't pay me to drive an M car in LA's horrendous traffic/pavement; base 3 series w/18in wheels is a better car in an urban environment.

I would use EV's as a way to enjoy my ICE's. When my big V8 engine finally decides to go..., I will be hard pressed to buy another gas guzzler (although the Dodge that does wheelies looks fun). So by using an EV for daily driving it will allow me to keep my ICE in pristine condition,,, for longer. Clear as mud?

Furthermore, we have to honest with ourselves here. ICE engines have become a little less theatrical/fun. While making more power, they don't spin up like the old days anymore. They even need fake sounds to be piped in thru the speakers; Carol Shelby is spinning in his grave. The V8 M3 was frankenstein, a 9k rpm on the 911; sweet sweet music. 

The new M-car (I may be banned for life, but I cannot tell a lie) sounds horrible, as do many of the hi-performance Audi/MB models. I hear them rev to 3k and short ****...,,, basically what my mom's 1990 Camry did. urgh.

My ideal set up would be and EV for DD, a truck/convertible for fun weekend outings and for those road trips/skii vacations I would rent a damn car. I'm certainly not going to legitimise a 4x4 hauler for the 2 weekends I use it a yr.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Saintor said:


> The Tesla 3 will be the locomotive that will bring Tesla to bankruptcy. Excluding massive investments, they are not making money with a car worth more than twice and the Tesla 3 cost is estimated at about 5/6 or the Tesla S. The more they sell, the more they burn money. It will be liquidated eventually, even if the name Tesla is likely to survive in other hands.


Is Telsa somewhat similar to Amazon in terms of requiring lots of capital investment to materialize it potentials? And Amazon does survive and become king of the hill.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Is Telsa somewhat similar to Amazon in terms of requiring lots of capital investment to materialize it potentials? And Amazon does survive and become king of the hill.


I'm not an expert, but I like to share my opinions...

Amazon started during the dot com bubble and profits didn't matter. It somehow managed to survive the dot com bust (got to give them credit for that), but they just ambled along until 2008/2009. After that ZIRP hit and they have taken full advantage of financial engineering and since then they have sky rocketed. 
https://finance.google.com/finance?q=amzn&ei=ADlFWtmtA9T82Ab8tY-QCg

I have no idea how they will do once interest rates normalize if they ever do.

One of the unintended consequences of ZIRP/QE is that it moves resources away from goods and services production and into financial engineering. (There's a similar trend in healthcare and education where both are building infrastructure out the wazoo and hiring administrators; they are not hiring doctors or professors as much.)

Tesla is in a similar situation requiring a combination of tax credits, trading of energy credits, and low interest rates in order to bloom.

Fortunately for both, the federal reserve is planning to normalize things so slowly that they will have put a lot of viable but old-school, non-financial-engineering businesses out of business.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I'm not an expert, but I like to share my opinions...
> 
> Amazon started during the dot com bubble and profits didn't matter. It somehow managed to survive the dot com bust (got to give them credit for that), but they just ambled along until 2008/2009. After that ZIRP hit and they have taken full advantage of financial engineering and since then they have sky rocketed.
> https://finance.google.com/finance?q=amzn&ei=ADlFWtmtA9T82Ab8tY-QCg
> ...


Insightful analysis, thanks for sharing. :thumbup:

Basically most things are fake news these days.


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Can't drive 5 min without seeing a Tesla 'round here.
> 
> Model 3 will eclipse the BMW 3 series. Soon. Any day now.


Not model 3's you don't. Hell, I work across the freeway from the plant and even I don't see a model 3 every week.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

FaRKle! said:


> Not model 3's you don't. Hell, I work across the freeway from the plant and even I don't see a model 3 every week.


In that area you will. I've spent a fair amount of time in the South Bay Area and Model S's are thick as flies there.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> In that area you will. I've spent a fair amount of time in the South Bay Area and Model S's are thick as flies there.


Model S, yes. Model 3, not really.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Desmocedici said:


> The new M-car (I may be banned for life, but I cannot tell a lie) sounds horrible, as do many of the hi-performance Audi/MB models. I hear them rev to 3k and short ****...,,, basically what my mom's 1990 Camry did. urgh.


*[Salvation]*


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## Desmocedici (Nov 16, 2016)

^^^^^^^ nice!


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

For those of you that are BMWCCA members, Alex McCollouch evidently got to drive a new 3 for some promo filming. He liked it. I think that even non-members may be able to access this column/link.

https://www.bmwcca.org/roundel/professional-driver-closed-course


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

mr_clueless said:


> Amazon started during the dot com bubble and profits didn't matter. It somehow managed to survive the dot com bust (got to give them credit for that), but they just ambled along until 2008/2009. After that ZIRP hit and they have taken full advantage of financial engineering and since then they have sky rocketed.


Amazon was among the very few dot com bubble companies that provided real value added. Still do....irresistible....


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## bmwe39lover (Jul 4, 2015)

some of the post on here are ridiculous
the 3 has been an engineering miracle for 35k

and in fact even more safe than all bmw's

the issue is the fit and finish
and the interior comfort,
i have a deposit in but dont know if i can deal going from f10 interior to a model 3


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## soboy (Jul 24, 2017)

I've worked in the automotive industry since 1984, including a 7 year gig as an insider at Ford Motor Co. Here are my two cents. Tesla's production goals for the model 3 are not realistic or attainable. Their quality control is an issue. Other than that, Tesla is an innovative company that will help take this industry to its eventual destination - the elimination of ICE vehicles. When will that happen? If I knew that, I'd be very wealthy. My best estimate, based on all the insider information I have, is if you are over 50, you won't be alive when the total elimination of ICE vehicles occurs. As for me, I was ready to go electric, but wanted one more shot at a fun ICE vehicle, so instead of putting a deposit down on a Model 3, I bought a 2017 M240i. Best damn car I've ever owned. Happy New Year to all!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

floydarogers said:


> For those of you that are BMWCCA members, Alex McCollouch evidently got to drive a new 3 for some promo filming. He liked it. I think that even non-members may be able to access this column/link.
> 
> https://www.bmwcca.org/roundel/professional-driver-closed-course


That is a good read.:thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bmwe39lover said:


> some of the post on here are ridiculous
> the 3 has been an engineering miracle for 35k
> 
> and in fact even more safe than all bmw's
> ...


The main issue to me is if the company will be around for 10-15 years after the car is purchased.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

bmwe39lover said:


> some of the post on here are ridiculous
> 
> the 3 has been an engineering miracle for 35k
> 
> ...


How is the car more safe? That is a ridiculous statement

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## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

namelessman said:


> Is Telsa somewhat similar to Amazon in terms of requiring lots of capital investment to materialize it potentials? And Amazon does survive and become king of the hill.


Excellent example, thank you. At the next techno-bubble crash (coming very soon), Amazon will also go to the toilet.

Amazon has a P/E ratio of 296, absolutely not sustainable. Like Nortel Networks, it will eventually collapse, no question. It is just a matter of when.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Saintor said:


> Excellent example, thank you. At the next techno-bubble crash (coming very soon), Amazon will also go to the toilet.
> 
> Amazon has a P/E ratio of 296, absolutely not sustainable. Like Nortel Networks, it will eventually collapse, no question. It is just a matter of when.


For as long as leasing is cheaper than buying (wink, wink), Amazon will have no trouble.

It's all financial engineering enabled by the current monetary policy. It is likely to continue forever.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> For as long as leasing is cheaper than buying (wink, wink), Amazon will have no trouble.
> 
> It's all financial engineering enabled by the current monetary policy. It is likely to continue forever.


That is very true, given no politician wants to end the party.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Saintor said:


> Excellent example, thank you. At the next techno-bubble crash (coming very soon), Amazon will also go to the toilet.
> 
> Amazon has a P/E ratio of 296, absolutely not sustainable. Like Nortel Networks, it will eventually collapse, no question. It is just a matter of when.


Do you really believe the stuff you write? Do you have any viable evidence of an imminent techno bubble crash.


----------



## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> Do you really believe the stuff you write? Do you have any viable evidence of an imminent techno bubble crash.


Obviously you have no idea how bad a P/E ratio of 296 is. Here is a clue; it is ALL about speculation.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Saintor said:


> Obviously you have no idea how bad a P/E ratio of 296 is. Here is a clue; it is ALL about speculation.


This is similar to dotcom, however in those days governments were not involved. These days most governments are going all out as last resorts to pop up economies, it requires a colossal event, e.g. a meteroite(?!?), to correct the aberrations.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Most of these 2018 to early '19 offerings by others already make the Tesla 3 look boring IMO before it's even been delivered in large numbers...
https://youtu.be/FSZVbdnApLY


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Saintor said:


> Obviously you have no idea how bad a P/E ratio of 296 is. Here is a clue; it is ALL about speculation.


You did not answer my question.


----------



## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

soboy said:


> ....Tesla is an innovative company that will help take this industry to its eventual destination - the elimination of ICE vehicles. When will that happen?


Easy: When energy density greatly improves and infrastructure [electric generation] can support millions of electric vehicles simultaneously recharging at any time.

Gonna be awhile.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Easy: When energy density greatly improves and infrastructure [electric generation] can support millions of electric vehicles simultaneously recharging at any time.
> 
> Gonna be awhile.


Our local Costco went from 12 pumps to 24 pups recently, no line at almost all times! :thumbup:

In contrast, there were 12 deep waiting for one of 11 superchargers at Tesla factory yesterday, each have to wait at least 30 minutes?!?


----------



## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> You did not answer my question.


Yes I did.


----------



## Cardiac (Jul 29, 2013)

*Lol*

We were at the car wash, fellow two cars in front had a Tesla, a SUV I believe. He mentioned that at night with the heater on it was scary how fast the battery went down.Than he tried to sound positive and said he was saving money not buying gas. It was noisy it there and he had to go, I wanted to tell him that for the cash difference between our `09 X3 and his Tesla I could buy a lot of gas, for years. I did say that I'd like to see the Tesla at 9yrs old and at 17s yrs old like our 330


----------



## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> In contrast, there were 12 deep waiting for one of 11 superchargers at Tesla factory yesterday, each have to wait at least 30 minutes?!?


At least you're in good company. You might run into a new golfing buddy while waiting for the free charge.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> At least you're in good company. You might run into a new golfing buddy while waiting for the free charge.


Well the people in line, as well as the people waiting in showroom were all immersed in smart phones and tablets, so there seemed to be no good company.


----------



## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> Our local Costco went from 12 pumps to 24 pups recently, no line at almost all times! :thumbup:
> 
> In contrast, there were 12 deep waiting for one of 11 superchargers at Tesla factory yesterday, each have to wait at least 30 minutes?!?


No line? *Dude I want your Costco!*


----------



## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Cardiac said:


> We were at the car wash, fellow two cars in front had a Tesla, a SUV I believe. He mentioned that at night with the heater on it was scary how fast the battery went down.Than he tried to sound positive and said he was saving money not buying gas. It was noisy it there and he had to go, I wanted to tell him that for the cash difference between our `09 X3 and his Tesla I could buy a lot of gas, for years. I did say that I'd like to see the Tesla at 9yrs old and at 17s yrs old like our 330


6° F in SE Pennsylvania this morn.

*>Snort!<*

One does not drive a Tesla in such inconvenient weather. And that's a truth.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Saintor said:


> Yes I did.


This was my question: "Do you have any viable evidence of an imminent techno bubble crash." A reference to Amazon's P/E ratio does not answer the question. Can you cite sources to back your claim?


----------



## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Well the people in line, as well as the people waiting in showroom were all immersed in smart phones and tablets, so there seemed to be no good company.


Sad reality of our times. And I'm guilty too.

Maybe that could be my new year's resolution--spend less time on my phone/laptop.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> No line? *Dude I want your Costco!*


Oops, maybe that will change now as the news is out!


----------



## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Oops, maybe that will change now as the news is out!


Call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye!

(The Last Resort ~ Eagles)


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye!
> 
> (The Last Resort ~ Eagles)


Sounds like double entendre! :thumbup:


----------



## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Sounds like double entendre! :thumbup:


I'm actually hoping (assuming?) he knows the song and appreciates the irony of applying the lyric to a California COSTCO...


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Michael Schott said:


> Do you really believe the stuff you write? Do you have any viable evidence of an imminent techno bubble crash.


Does Bitcoin count?


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Dio///M said:


> Most of these 2018 to early '19 offerings by others already make the Tesla 3 look boring IMO before it's even though been delivered in large numbers...
> https://youtu.be/FSZVbdnApLY


Great find. A couple comments:


That Jaguar is sexy AF. How can the i3 hope to compete with that design?
The Leaf has ONE pedal that works as both brake and accelerator??? Where were the lawyers on that one? Will it be sold in Florida? Can you imagine the coming wave of fatalities at Bingo parlors, podiatrist offices and Publix parking lots? Bobby Axelrod is already shorting Nissan, and buying into personal injury law firms in the Sunshine State.
God bless Mercedes for being the first to market with a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. The first truly zero emission vehicle. BMW, VWAG and the others may as well declare "game over" and go home.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

quackbury said:


> Great find. A couple comments:
> 
> 
> God bless Mercedes for being the first to market with a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. The first truly zero emission vehicle. BMW, VWAG and the others may as well declare "game over" and go home.


huh?
https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

mr_clueless said:


> huh?
> https://ssl.toyota.com/mirai/fcv.html


Whoa! Had not seen that before; they must not be selling them in New England. Three years of free fuel, plus a $5,000 rebate? Too bad the damn thing looks like the bastard stepchild of a sewer rat and a cheese grater.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

quackbury said:


> Whoa! Had not seen that before; they must not be selling them in New England. Three years of free fuel, plus a $5,000 rebate? Too bad the damn thing looks like the bastard stepchild of a sewer rat and a cheese grater.


I'd wager anyone building a hydrogen FCV will target CA only for now since that is where all the refueling stations are.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

quackbury said:


> Whoa! Had not seen that before; they must not be selling them in New England. Three years of free fuel, plus a $5,000 rebate? Too bad the damn thing looks like the bastard stepchild of a sewer rat and a cheese grater.


Mirai drivers are, well, *special*.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

quackbury said:


> God bless Mercedes for being the first to market with a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. The first truly zero emission vehicle. BMW, VWAG and the others may as well declare "game over" and go home.


It emits water vapor, LD50 = 8 gal, do not fool yourself!

With increased humidity over population centers, can increased rainfall be far behind? Man made climate change! Desert oasis where there was sand; flooded New Orleans! These fuel cells will wreak havoc.


----------



## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> It emits water vapor, LD50 = 8 gal, do not fool yourself!
> 
> With increased humidity over population centers, can increased rainfall be far behind? Man made climate change! Desert oasis where there was sand; flooded New Orleans! These fuel cells will wreak havoc.


Back in the early 1970's there was speculation that catalytic converters would leave the streets constantly wet and there would be more traffic accidents.

Actually, dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO) is some dangerous stuff:

Some of the known perils of Dihydrogen Monoxide are:

• Death due to accidental inhalation of DHMO, even in small quantities.
• Prolonged exposure to solid DHMO causes severe tissue damage.
• Excessive ingestion produces a number of unpleasant though not typically life-threatening side-effects.
• DHMO is a major component of acid rain.
• Gaseous DHMO can cause severe burns.
• Contributes to soil erosion.
• Leads to corrosion and oxidation of many metals.
• Contamination of electrical systems often causes short-circuits.
• Exposure decreases effectiveness of automobile brakes.
• Found in biopsies of pre-cancerous tumors and lesions.
• Given to vicious dogs involved in recent deadly attacks.
•Often associated with killer cyclones in the U.S. Midwest and elsewhere, and in hurricanes including deadly storms in Florida, New Orleans and other areas of the southeastern U.S.
•Thermal variations in DHMO are a suspected contributor to the El Nino weather effect.

http://www.dhmo.org/facts.html

DHMO is also a greenhouse gas.


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Will a tin foil hat protect me from DHMO? I am scared to death of waking up tomorrow and finding I've become a Scientologist.

And for those of us (e.g. me) who are confused, why the mention of DHMO in this thread? Is it an emission of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles? I think anyone who got burned out of their home by the recent fires would welcome a little more rain, but I guess I'd rather be homeless than join a cult with Tom Cruise and John Travolta.


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

quackbury said:


> ...God bless Mercedes for being the first to market with a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. The first truly zero emission vehicle....


You *are* aware that most commercially-available hydrogen is made from natural gas, which is *not* a zero-emission process? (Even if it were made by electrolysis, the electricity to do that is mostly coal-generated.)
https://energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-natural-gas-reforming
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_production

Hydrogen fuel cells for transportation is just another "feel-good" lie.


----------



## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

quackbury said:


> Will a tin foil hat protect me from DHMO? I am scared to death of waking up tomorrow and finding I've become a Scientologist.
> 
> And for those of us (e.g. me) who are confused, why the mention of DHMO in this thread? Is it an emission of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles? I think anyone who got burned out of their home by the recent fires would welcome a little more rain, but I guess I'd rather be homeless than join a cult with Tom Cruise and John Travolta.


On the possibility you're not joking...

DHMO = Dihydro (H2) monoxide (O) = H2O = Water

The fuel cell reaction is 2(H2) + O2 = 2(H2O) + energy. Water is the by-product of a hydrogen-based fuel cell reaction.


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Mark in NoVA said:


> On the possibility you're not joking...
> 
> DHMO = Dihydro (H2) monoxide (O) = H2O = Water
> 
> The fuel cell reaction is 2(H2) + O2 = 2(H2O) + energy. Water is the by-product of a hydrogen-based fuel cell reaction.


I was in on the joke and playing along, but thanks for asking. 

I do love the Scientology reference and the DHMrg website. Brilliant.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

quackbury said:


> I was in on the joke and playing along, but thanks for asking.
> 
> I do love the Scientology reference and the DHMrg website. Brilliant.


One of those problems with the internet; if you let on you're in on the joke, it spoils the joke!

(And, unfortunately, I've been on other forums where many people wouldn't get it!)


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

OK, will someone explain to me what was wrong with EXPLODING hydrogen in a V12 engine and getting DiHydroMonoxide out of the tailpipe? It certainly sounded better, there was a soul still in the car, wasn't polluting any more than fuel cell, you could have had MT with it ... and BMW did that 15 years ago. While everybody else, Mercedes included, was laughing. F#%$^king a$$holes. Yes, and hypocrites.

EDIT for clarity : not people here, carmakers.


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

The lab I worked in got written up for stockpiling an excessive amount of a hazardous material... N2. When told we had too much one of the engineers opened the valve on the tank, causing the safety inspector to run out of the room.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Autoputzer said:


> The lab I worked in got written up for stockpiling an excessive amount of a hazardous material... N2. When told we had too much one of the engineers opened the valve on the tank, causing the safety inspector to run out of the room.


It is unthinkable the local Costco just installed a N2 station in the parking lot, and allow members to handle the material with bare hands.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Autoputzer said:


> The lab I worked in got written up for stockpiling an excessive amount of a hazardous material... N2. When told we had too much one of the engineers opened the valve on the tank, causing the safety inspector to run out of the room.


Which inspector? My bet: On right


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Which inspector? My bet: On right


Yeah, but you had a 33% chance of being right without any insight.

It took us literally the better part of a year to get all the HAZMAT approvals to get the N2 in the first place. About 30 people has to sign off on it first. So, we stocked up.

We also weren't allowed to walk on the grass, for safety reasons. That's because somebody, decades ago, might have... misplaced a... wait for it.... land mine somewhere in the area.


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

Mark K said:


> OK, will someone explain to me what was wrong with EXPLODING hydrogen in a V12 engine and getting DiHydroMonoxide out of the tailpipe? It certainly sounded better, there was a soul still in the car, wasn't polluting any more than fuel cell, you could have had MT with it ... and BMW did that 15 years ago. While everybody else, Mercedes included, was laughing. F#%$^king a$$holes. Yes, and hypocrites.
> 
> EDIT for clarity : not people here, carmakers.


The H2 had to be stored on-board in a liquid state. That's difficult, expensive, and dangerous (e.g. Space Shuttle Challenger). Natural gas can be stored as a high-pressure vapor, albeit with limited vehicle range.


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

Autoputzer said:


> The H2 had to be stored on-board in a liquid state. That's difficult, expensive, and dangerous (e.g. Space Shuttle Challenge). Natural gas can be stored as a high-pressure vapor, albeit with limited vehicle range.


Excuse my ignorance ... fuel cell vehicles pump CNG when at the pump or H2? Somehow, I strongly believed it was H2 they were pumping, even read about Scandinavian enterprise using solar panels as a souce of electricity for water electrolysis and generating H2 at the pump itself.

If you will tell me that H2 at 1 bar is less dangerous than H2 at 2,000 bar ... OK. But I still remember the boom my chemistry teacher created with just 9V battery and 1 bar pressure. I guess you could argue that there is a difference between being evaporated or your pieces thrown in a 20 ft radius to be collected by coroner. Not sure you (or I) would care about the difference ...


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## Autoputzer (Mar 16, 2014)

Mark K said:


> Excuse my ignorance ... fuel cell vehicles pump CNG when at the pump or H2? Somehow, I strongly believed it was H2 they were pumping, even read about Scandinavian enterprise using solar panels as a souce of electricity for water electrolysis and generating H2 at the pump itself.
> 
> If you will tell me that H2 at 1 bar is less dangerous than H2 at 2,000 bar ... OK. But I still remember the boom my chemistry teacher created with just 9V battery and 1 bar pressure. I guess you could argue that there is a difference between being evaporated or your pieces thrown in a 20 ft radius to be collected by coroner. Not sure you (or I) would care about the difference ...


Those H2 powered BMW's were fueled by a robotic fueling rig. You've seen those morons at gas pumps. YouTube's full of videos of them. You don't want them anywhere near liquid H2. Other little surprises of H2 is that the flame is almost invisible, and because H2 molecules are so small, you're always going to have leakage.

Honda sold a CNG powered Civic for years. At first, they only sold them to fleets. They briefly sold them consumers in California, Mass., and NY. They also sold a home compressor which took household natural gas (~2 PSI) and compressed it to about 2000 PSI when refueling. Refueling the CNG powered Civic from a household natural gas supply took almost all night.

I worked at a place that had propane powered trucks back in the 1980's. These were aftermarket conversions. We parked them under an office building that was on stilts because of it being in a flood zone. Walking past the trucks, you could smell the oderized propane. You wouldn't want a CNG or H2 powered vehicle parked in your garage.

Ford used to sell OE Crown Vic' cop cars, light and medium duty trucks powered by CNG. They stopped when the price of gasoline went down, though.

CNG's working in commercial, short-haul and terminal-to-terminal trucks. Converting a commercial diesel engine to CNG reaps more benefits than converting a gasoline engine to CNG, due to the higher compression of diesel engines. UPS has literally thousands of CNG powered trucks.

https://pressroom.ups.com/pressroom...onceptType=PressReleases&id=1489579573572-162


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

Autoputzer said:


> Those H2 powered BMW's were fueled by a robotic fueling rig. You've seen those morons at gas pumps. YouTube's full of videos of them. You don't want them anywhere near liquid H2. Other little surprises of H2 is that the flame is almost invisible, and because H2 molecules are so small, you're always going to have leakage.


OK, we are talking about two different things. I was talking about *hydrogen fuel cell* vehicles that are all the rage now. Now. Everybody was snickering and laughing at BMW when they used H2 to power ICE.

Something tells me that H2 used in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is the same H2 used by BMW to explode in ICE cylinders and the same morons will be required to stop at H2 distributor and pump them.

Easily avoided by placing an attendant that has to operate the pump included in the price of H2, just like they do with CNG (or propane? ... they have both) pumps in Italy.



> I worked at a place that had propane powered trucks back in the 1980's. These were aftermarket conversions. We parked them under an office building that was on stilts because of it being in a flood zone. Walking past the trucks, you could smell the oderized propane. You wouldn't want a CNG or H2 powered vehicle parked in your garage.


That is a whole another discussion. I think we should try on a large scale - you will never work the kinks out unless there is a mass market for it. That and us being Saudi Arabia of natural gas, of course.

Since the shortages of late 70's and early 80's, southern part of Europe was huge on running on natural gas. Granted, none of the people I knew owned a garage, but many drove 100s of thousands of kilometers on natural gas without burning to death. And that was with 80's technology.

Not sure if those signs "No CNG vehicles allowed" that I saw long, long time ago in Florence at the entrance of underground garage at main train station are still there. Maybe yes. But what I *do* know is that you can buy a Peugeot factory set to run on CNG with house filler (just like Tesla charger on the garage wall) as an option. So, I guess, they are not that big of a danger in garages anymore.

Considering how much natural gas reserves we have, I say we should probably try it, just like roundabouts and Autobahn. Before hybrids, before BEVs and before autonomous vehicles. The advantage is that we DO KNOW they (CNG, roundabouts and Authobahnen) work. Who was it that said "You can always count on American people to do the right thing. After they tried all the other ones." - B. Shaw? Can't remember ...


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Autoputzer said:


> We also weren't allowed to walk on the grass, for safety reasons. That's because somebody, decades ago, might have... misplaced a... wait for it.... land mine somewhere in the area.


I like a lab with land mines in the yard. Keeps the riff-raff out.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

quackbury said:


> Will a tin foil hat protect me from DHMO?


I'm afraid not. Fuel cell rainfall will short it out.


----------



## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> This was my question: "Do you have any viable evidence of an imminent techno bubble crash." A reference to Amazon's P/E ratio does not answer the question. Can you cite sources to back your claim?


Nobody has such a crystal ball and at your age, I shouldn't have to tell you. The out of whack financial ratios are the best clues that this situation are not sustainable.


----------



## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Saintor said:


> Nobody has such a crystal ball and at your age, I shouldn't have to tell you. The out of whack financial ratios are the best clues that this situation are not sustainable.


Maybe. What is Amazon's competition? Um.......


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Maybe. What is Amazon's competition? Um.......


Is there a recent article about a journalist living his life(and getting everything needed) entirely on Amazon? 

Let's say Google and Amazon disappear, how much can that affect daily living these days?


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Too big to fail? Where have I heard that before?

It's not binary, you know. There are other options between spectacular unabated growth and utter collapse / bankruptcy. Like a major correction in hyper-inflated stock prices, and/or the DOJ rediscovering its antitrust mission.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Saintor said:


> Nobody has such a crystal ball and at your age, I shouldn't have to tell you. The out of whack financial ratios are the best clues that this situation are not sustainable.


You're changing the target as usual.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

It was only a matter of time...
http://www.motortrend.com/news/california-proposes-ban-sale-gas-cars-2040/


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

duplicate


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> It was only a matter of time...
> http://www.motortrend.com/news/california-proposes-ban-sale-gas-cars-2040/


Wow that's an aggressive schedule. Where is all the rare earth material to build all those batteries?!?? :dunno:


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Yes $8k off is doable with invoice deal + incentives till Jan 31. If ordered car is delivered by that date the incentives will be applicable(a coworker's ordered MY18 car did catch this deal early this month).


So you are touting an incentive that expires in 5 days, that not everyone will be able to get but not going to take into account the federal tax credit for EVs that will last till mid 2019 plus any incentives that states may offer? Doesn't sound like a fair comparison.

Anyway, I get it...you like BMW and you should, but there are also other nice cars out there too. That's all I was trying to say in my posts. Take care everyone.


----------



## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

namelessman said:


> $4000 BMWFS finance credits are published ones for west coast. MI zip codes still get $2000, not bad.
> 
> $750 loyalty credit is available nation wide.
> 
> ...


Not everybody qualifies for the Corp Fleet so that can't be used. Like Michael said, most people are not going to get 20% off, and Jan 31 it goes away and then the Model 3 will have a huge advantage.


----------



## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

pkalhan said:


> So you are touting an incentive that expires in 5 days, that not everyone will be able to get but not going to take into account the federal tax credit for EVs that will last till mid 2019 plus any incentives that states may offer? Doesn't sound like a fair comparison.
> 
> Anyway, I get it...you like BMW and you should, but there are also other nice cars out there too. That's all I was trying to say in my posts. Take care everyone.


:thumbup:


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

pkalhan said:


> So you are touting an incentive that expires in 5 days, that not everyone will be able to get but not going to take into account the federal tax credit for EVs that will last till mid 2019 plus any incentives that states may offer? Doesn't sound like a fair comparison.
> 
> Anyway, I get it...you like BMW and you should, but there are also other nice cars out there too. That's all I was trying to say in my posts. Take care everyone.


This incentive is likely to stay too, given this is last production year of F30.

On the subject of expiration, the federal tax credit is expiring too given Tesla is approaching the 200k units.

So apple to apple, price wise, the comparison is, on Jan 26, 2018, $7500 fed credit on Model 3, which by the way is not available to general public other than reservation list.

Or $8000 off F30 on Jan 26, with units ready to be delivered on dealer's lots.

That is a fair comparison, right? :thumbup:

Do note the thread title, that's the context of this discussion.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> This incentive is likely to stay too, given this is last production year of F30.
> 
> On the subject of expiration, the federal tax credit is expiring too given Tesla is approaching the 200k units.
> 
> ...


The thread title could refer to many aspects of these two cars or any of the cars in this class. No car is a 3 series killer and the sales support that. And BMW looks to be moving strongly into EV's themselves.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Eagle11 said:


> Not everybody qualifies for the Corp Fleet so that can't be used. Like Michael said, most people are not going to get 20% off, and Jan 31 it goes away and then the Model 3 will have a huge advantage.


Do note that Model 3 is not available to general public except for reservation list, and only $9000 long range battery version is available for not. So that $7500 credit is a subsidy to that extra battery cost.

So even if $5000 incentive is gone by Feb 1(my guess is it will stay given it is last MY of F30 production), Model 3 without standard battery and no general availability gives F30 significant advantage over Model 3 price wise.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> The thread title could refer to many aspects of these two cars or any of the cars in this class. No car is a 3 series killer and the sales support that. And BMW looks to be moving strongly into EV's themselves.


The context is that even Tesla did start delivery of Model 3, the volume ramp up is not meaningful enough to cause a dent at competitors, e.g. 3-series.

In the meantime, competitors, e.g. BMW, are moving to position their current offerings to undercut Model 3's prices.

For sure BMW top brass did call an all-hands on deck to fight Tesla, and has been investing heavily on EV's themselves. It does come to mind if Tesla is still around when BMW starts offering EV's(albeit there will be other competitors to battle).


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Question and thoughts center around the longevity of the battery (a question no one can answer) and cost of replacement

1. we know the cost to replace an 85 kwh battery is ~$12,000
2. we know the warranty is 8 years/unlimited mileage
3. we know batteries maximum charge degrade over time
4. eventually it will be worth while to replace the battery to get back to the vehicle's original capabilities

Considering the cost of the battery replacement in the annual cost to "fuel" the vehicle and if you do this the cost to run the car per-mile vs. an ICE car by tesla's own numbers is not very favorable

Assumptions: 15,000 miles year, ICE 22 MPG, gas = $3.80 gallon, kwh's = $0.11/kwh

by Tesla's own numbers :

http://www.teslamotors.com/goelectric#savings

ICE Car = $2591 year in fuel cost $0.17 per-mile in fuel
Model S = $467 year in fuel cost $0.03 per-mile in fuel

that is until you factor in the cost of replacing the fuel tank at the end of an 8 year life span (the battery) - for which you have to budget $1500 per year - making the cost of the Tesla's fuel system $1967/year or $0.13 per-mile in fuel&#8230;

So by these figures, the "fuel" savings work out to about $600 a year when going electric.

Everyone of course has a criteria list by which they'll decide between a EV or ICE vehicle, but IMO the "fuel" savings account to a lot less than most people assume they really are. Even if one decides to sell his EV lets say after 6 or 7 years, the anticipated replacement cost of the battery to the new owner will seriously dent the selling price.

There's a video on YouTube of a guy taking his 2 day old $60k Tesla 3 to Carmax to see how much he'd get and they offered him just $42k.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is a prediction from a year ago of Tesla hitting 200k US deliveries(hence $7500 starts phasing out):

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/20/predicting-us-federal-ev-tax-credit-will-expire-tesla-buyers/

The 177k units shipped in US by end of 2017 seems to be mentioned on forums and such(no Tesla confirmation on US delivery).


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

Basically, this article says that the Model 3 battery is the holdup, because previous ones (for S, X) were essentially hand-made but the 3 battery is being automated at the "Gigafactory". Hate that name. :thumbdwn: It's bad enough that they're trying to automate the model 3 assembly, but they're trying to automate the component assembly, too.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/new...eal-a-hidden-cost-in-electric-cars/ar-AAvd7rx


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Even with the battery holdup, Tesla's total US delivery should probably cross 200k in Q1/Q2 of 2018, such that the $7500 credit will be cut in half soon(then cut by 75%, then 100%). 

How will Model 3 prices compare to 3-series prices when the $7500 fed credit is reduced/gone?

How viable is Telsa as a company when taxpayer's subsidies are removed?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

FaRKle! said:


> Huh? Sacramento is only about 120mi away from San Jose, with chargers along the way... It wouldn't take too long to top off so you have enough to make it.


Longer than you think! 240 mi round trip + around town power draw exceeds range, and then some.

Um....9.3 hr total recharge translates to lengthy "topping off" painfully often. Gonna be a long day....unless you're overnight & plugged in.

Keeps yer Uber app handy.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Range and charging time are drawbacks to current electric vehicles. Also, sheer cost compared to gasoline alternatives is still not in an electric vehicles favor.

My point in a previous post in noticing an ever increasing number of Chevy Bolts circulating the highways is curiosity on how this is starting to affect Tesla's waiting list for the model 3. The bolt is a true $37K EV or even tarted up a bit it's $43K. Most importantly if you want a Bolt you can go to any Chevy dealer and drive one off the lot today.

With Tesla, you are on some sort of waiting list and oh by the way that $35K car you thought you wanted is really a $60K+ vehicle. You still want it? Also, in my opinion there is not the wow factor in the model 3 like the model S. In my opinion the model three looks ordinary from the side or back and ugly as sin from the front. Once Tesla works it's way through the true believers on their list, I think they are in a real dogfight with actual competitors for sales of EV's in the $35-50K class of cars. 

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

bmwexpat said:


> Range and charging time are drawbacks to current electric vehicles. Also, sheer cost compared to gasoline alternatives is still not in an electric vehicles favor.
> 
> My point in a previous post in noticing an ever increasing number of Chevy Bolts circulating the highways is curiosity on how this is starting to affect Tesla's waiting list for the model 3. The bolt is a true $37K EV or even tarted up a bit it's $43K. Most importantly if you want a Bolt you can go to any Chevy dealer and drive one off the lot today.
> 
> With Tesla, you are on some sort of waiting list and oh by the way that $35K car you thought you wanted is really a $60K+ vehicle.


*>Sniff<*

Sir, a Bolt is no Tesla. Bolt drivers are Tesla poseurs, dime a dozen.

Bolt pilot:


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

^^^ "With Tesla, you are on some sort of waiting list "....

..especially waiting to recharge on those long range outings.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> ^^^ "With Tesla, you are on some sort of waiting list "....
> 
> ..especially waiting to recharge on those long range outings.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Old wise saying - Money talks and bull**** walks.

Well financed and "profitable" Competitors are now nipping at the Tesla heals.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> *>Sniff<*
> 
> Sir, a Bolt is no Tesla. Bolt drivers are Tesla poseurs, dime a dozen.


That's a stylish Bolt driver! OK, it is stylish compared to most around my locales.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

BMW does have a roadmap for hydrogen fuel cell car too. In principle hydrogen will fit into existing infrastructure, provided the refuel time can be dropped to 2 minutes or so. And the enabling tech for wide spread hydrogen usage can be nuclear, given the new gens of nuclear tech are in principle a lot safer than previous gens.


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## ATC BMW (May 25, 2005)

I cancelled the Model 3 because of the delivery delays. 


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bmwexpat said:


> Old wise saying - Money talks and bull**** walks.
> 
> Well financed and "profitable" Competitors are now nipping at the Tesla heals.


Who are these "profitable" competitors. So far other than the weak selling Bolt there are none.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Michael Schott said:


> Who are these "profitable" competitors. So far other than the weak selling Bolt there are none.


https://electrek.co/2016/12/26/10-electric-cars/


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> Who are these "profitable" competitors. So far other than the weak selling Bolt there are none.


The bolt sales have going up almost every month
https://electrek.co/2017/12/01/chevy-bolt-ev-us-sales-records/


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

^^^^ ....and
https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/19/bmw-reaches-100000-electric-vehicle-sales-target-for-2017/


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Dio///M said:


> ^^^^ ....and
> https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/19/bmw-reaches-100000-electric-vehicle-sales-target-for-2017/


That's electric + hybrid.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

eazy said:


> The bolt sales have going up almost every month
> https://electrek.co/2017/12/01/chevy-bolt-ev-us-sales-records/


Glad to hear this as it's a really good car. But 20,000 through November and 3000 in that month is not exactly setting the world on fire.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

mr_clueless said:


> https://electrek.co/2016/12/26/10-electric-cars/


Of those, the new 2018 Leaf, a redesign has a range of 150 miles. Jaguar's iPace looks to be viable. The rest are pie in the sky.

I don't doubt that EVs with good range are not far down the pike. Tesla, even with their slow rollout is far above the curve.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

mr_clueless said:


> https://electrek.co/2016/12/26/10-electric-cars/


Unless I'm missing something in that article, only the Model 3 and the Leaf are in production; the rest are all concept vehicles. Not sure how that adds up to a profitable competitor...


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Michael Schott said:


> Glad to hear this as it's a really good car. But 20,000 through November and 3000 in that month is not exactly setting the world on fire.


Sales are building month every month and that a good thing for the Bolt. In December I believe it was the best selling EV.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

eazy said:


> Sales are building month every month and that a good thing for the Bolt. In December I believe it was the best selling EV.


They're thick as Teslas out here....popular with the working guy and wives, local.

Then again, we're lousy with Leaf and the accursed: Madcap Prius drivers, all models.

I plow right through 'em with my Superduty.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> They're thick as Teslas out here....popular with the working guy and wives, local.
> 
> Then again, we're lousy with Leaf and the accursed: Madcap Prius drivers, variety of models.
> 
> I plow right through 'em with my Superduty.


Just out of curiosity, do you happen to commute on any of the highways with HOV lanes where all those lousy Leafs and madcap Prius drivers qualify for HOV exemptions? That's why I bought two Priuses (Prii???), and a key reason why my 3er is a plug in hybrid.

I was at the Washington Auto Show this weekend, and Toyota devoted a large part of their display to the new Mirai, a hydrogen-powered, fuel-cell vehicle that I believe is still only available in California; all the actual cars sported a prominent California HOV Access OK sticker...

As your Superduty slugs along in the main line...


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Unless I'm missing something in that article, only the Model 3 and the Leaf are in production; the rest are all concept vehicles. Not sure how that adds up to a profitable competitor...


He said nipping at the heels which I interpreted as catching up in terms of technology. Once these established manufacturers have a design in place, which they expect to have in the next couple of years, they are in a much better position than Tesla to ramp up manufacturing and distribution as we are seeing with the Bolt. At that point it is just a question of market demand for these cars and Tesla will have lost their niche.

Any new tech has a timeline associated with it, after which it is uninteresting. If other car manufacturers catch up with Tesla and Tesla is unable to leapfrog them by the time they catch up, they will have lost their advantage. If they are not big enough by then (unlikely because they have no dealer network), they risk being put out of business.

Again, the only reason Tesla is in business is because they have a niche product AND they can borrow money at low interest rates AND they are beneficiaries of government policies. Take away the first advantage and the other two don't even matter because others will have access to them too. But Tesla is much more sensitive to interest rates than the incumbents because the latter already have resources of scale for manufacturing and distribution.

The article indicates that several folks will be production ready in 2018/2019 with electrics that have a range of 300+ miles (and even more with 200+ miles which is the place where the base Tesla sits).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> He said nipping at the heels which I interpreted as catching up in terms of technology. Once these established manufacturers have a design in place, which they expect to have in the next couple of years, they are in a much better position than Tesla to ramp up manufacturing and distribution as we are seeing with the Bolt. At that point it is just a question of market demand for these cars and Tesla will have lost their niche.
> 
> Any new tech has a timeline associated with it, after which it is uninteresting. If other car manufacturers catch up with Tesla and Tesla is unable to leapfrog them by the time they catch up, they will have lost their advantage. If they are not big enough by then (unlikely because they have no dealer network), they risk being put out of business.
> 
> ...


That is a well balanced and thoughtful post, thanks for sharing. :thumbup:


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

mr_clueless said:


> He said nipping at the heels which I interpreted as catching up in terms of technology. Once these established manufacturers have a design in place, which they expect to have in the next couple of years, they are in a much better position than Tesla to ramp up manufacturing and distribution as we are seeing with the Bolt. At that point it is just a question of market demand for these cars and Tesla will have lost their niche.
> 
> Any new tech has a timeline associated with it, after which it is uninteresting. If other car manufacturers catch up with Tesla and Tesla is unable to leapfrog them by the time they catch up, they will have lost their advantage. If they are not big enough by then (unlikely because they have no dealer network), they risk being put out of business.
> 
> ...


I'll agree with that. When traditional manufacturers decide to enter this market, Tesla is likely to be marginalized pretty rapidly. I think they really need the Model 3 to succeed to go from niche curiosity to mainstream automaker, and they're having a hard time getting there so far. (And I'm not sure they'll ever be "mainstream".)


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

mr_clueless said:


> He said nipping at the heels which I interpreted as catching up in terms of technology. Once these established manufacturers have a design in place, which they expect to have in the next couple of years, they are in a much better position than Tesla to ramp up manufacturing and distribution as we are seeing with the Bolt. At that point it is just a question of market demand for these cars and Tesla will have lost their niche.
> 
> Any new tech has a timeline associated with it, after which it is uninteresting. If other car manufacturers catch up with Tesla and Tesla is unable to leapfrog them by the time they catch up, they will have lost their advantage. If they are not big enough by then (unlikely because they have no dealer network), they risk being put out of business.
> 
> ...


A couple of months ago tesla issue bonds at junk bonds status. One advantage tesla has is that raise money from sort of go fund me campaigns. Money raised from the semi and roadster is an example. They are going to do it again when they show examples of the model Y.

But Tesla's big problem is their cash burn rate which is almost at 750 Million a quarter and it keeps going up and up

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Just out of curiosity, do you happen to commute on any of the highways with HOV lanes where all those lousy Leafs and madcap Prius drivers qualify for HOV exemptions? That's why I bought two Priuses (Prii???), and a key reason why my 3er is a plug in hybrid.
> 
> I was at the Washington Auto Show this weekend, and Toyota devoted a large part of their display to the new Mirai, a hydrogen-powered, fuel-cell vehicle that I believe is still only available in California; all the actual cars sported a prominent California HOV Access OK sticker...
> 
> As your Superduty slugs along in the main line...


I am, *By Gum!*, high above anxious commuters sluggin' it out....also, being owner of my business, can pick my time t'travel.

When pressed may have to seat a sex robot on the passenger side to qualify for that carpool lane. They look so real and can carry a conversation! And since a *robot has been granted citizenship *, who's to say mine is not qualified? Nothing like the blow-up dolls adventure drivers used years ago.

Gotta say, I do see Mirai on our public roads. Distinctive yet totally odd....where's a guy t'score 10 gal liq hydrogen in his travels?


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Michael Schott said:


> Who are these "profitable" competitors. So far other than the weak selling Bolt there are none.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


>


Not a competitor to the Tesla 3 in terms of range. Even the new 2018 version has a 150 Mile range.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> A couple of months ago tesla issue bonds at junk bonds status. One advantage tesla has is that raise money from sort of go fund me campaigns. Money raised from the semi and roadster is an example. They are going to do it again when they show examples of the model Y.
> 
> But Tesla's big problem is their cash burn rate which is almost at 750 Million a quarter and it keeps going up and up


And with that cash burn inventory is still not building fast enough.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Michael Schott said:


> Not a competitor to the Tesla 3 in terms of range. Even the new 2018 version has a 150 Mile range.


They are promising more range for 2019.
https://electrek.co/2018/01/04/nissan-leaf-2019-specs-range-charging/

That will be at base Tesla level.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

mr_clueless said:


> I'd wager it falls significantly once mass-produced Tesla 3's hit the street.
> 
> Right now it's a cult and with an average selling price that rivals Porsche and a footprint far smaller, they can naturally afford to provide that type of service. And Porsche is #2 on the list.


It's going to very difficult for Tesla to maintain this standard for the 3. I would expect a lot of teething issues and I doubt they have the infrastructure to maintain the current level of customer service. They will also be attracting a broader set of less affluent owners who won't be as vested as you say.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Michael Schott said:


> Who buys any luxury car without bragging rights? Isn't Consumers Reports the gold standard for impartiality?


Well, I do....usually gotta mod so it comes closer to what I want. Hey I buys it for myself. Going on 10 yrs now, my BMW's still a favorite though it looks stock, old news to most people.

Man as my car:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Didn't know about the unlimited miles warranty? What was Tesla thinking? It now makes complete sense that they would do everything in their power (including the games noted in the Tesla forum) to make sure that the battery does not need to be replaced in 8 years. The battery should have been warrantied for a certain number of cycles.


It shows Tesla's version of "balanced point of view" on unsuspecting customers, right? 

Just imagine Tesla states the *truth* by disclosing the battery is warranted for 50+ cycles per [email protected] miles per cycle, for 8 years, or 400 cycles/120k miles. Upon warranty expiration, $10k-$12k replacement.

How does it affect its sales, RV, etc, etc?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I'd wager it falls significantly once mass-produced Tesla 3's hit the street.
> 
> Right now it's a cult and with an average selling price that rivals Porsche and a footprint far smaller, they can naturally afford to provide that type of service. And Porsche is #2 on the list.


Well CR's own annual auto reliability survey calls out Model X as the most reliable car, plus Model S gets rated as above average in reliability after years in the dump.

So apparently Tesla owners surveyed by CR equate bottom-ranked/average reliability as superior customer satisfaction, assuming both rankings derive from the same annual auto reliability.

Sounds like a balanced point of view, does it not? Or is it cult mentality?


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> Well CR's own annual auto reliability survey calls out Model X as the most reliable car, plus Model S gets rated as above average in reliability after years in the dump.
> 
> So apparently Tesla owners surveyed by CR equate bottom-ranked/average reliability as superior customer satisfaction, assuming both rankings derive from the same annual auto reliability.
> 
> Sounds like a balanced point of view, does it not? Or is it cult mentality?


you mean least reliable car according to consumer reports. It kind of funny when listen to Model X owners on youtube. They say they love the car and then the next sentence it a POS.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

CR - these folks do a knockout analysis job with toaster ovens and similar appliances. Car surveys ... on CR's info.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Well CR's own annual auto reliability survey calls out Model X as the most reliable car, plus Model S gets rated as above average in reliability after years in the dump.
> 
> So apparently Tesla owners surveyed by CR equate bottom-ranked/average reliability as superior customer satisfaction, assuming both rankings derive from the same annual auto reliability.
> 
> Sounds like a balanced point of view, does it not? Or is it cult mentality?


It's hard to know how people rank satisfaction. That's obvious. People may call Tesla owners fanboys or trendy or gullible but the bottom line is they love their cars.

To me, they are happy to be in a cutting edge car that is rare (unless you are in the Bay area) and they can tout that it's ecologically friendly whether it is or not. They are happy with their decision.

I will never see one at a gas station unless they are buying a soda or snack .


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Wgosma said:


> CR - these folks do a knockout analysis job with toaster ovens and similar appliances. Car surveys ... on CR's info.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


A lot of people have been using CR's car reviews to make buying decisions for decades. Do you think they are doctoring the results of their surveys?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> you mean least reliable car according to consumer reports. It kind of funny when listen to Model X owners on youtube. They say they love the car and then the next sentence it a POS.


Yes CR ranked Model X as the least reliable according to annual auto reliability survey. "Most reliable" is meant to be in quotes.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> Yes CR ranked Model X as the least reliable according to annual auto reliability survey. "Most reliable" is meant to be in quotes.


Gotcha 

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Wgosma said:


> CR - these folks do a knockout analysis job with toaster ovens and similar appliances. Car surveys ... on CR's info.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Cr is very good with their data and reviews are honest as well. They have a very good testing facility for there automobiles.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> It's hard to know how people rank satisfaction. That's obvious. People may call Tesla owners fanboys or trendy or gullible but the bottom line is they love their cars.
> 
> To me, they are happy to be in a cutting edge car that is rare (unless you are in the Bay area) and they can tout that it's ecologically friendly whether it is or not. They are happy with their decision.
> 
> I will never see one at a gas station unless they are buying a soda or snack .


There are lots of Tesla owners around here, and their first hand experience is not always rosy as Tesla paints it.

E.g. during last Labor Day(hot days), several Model S were reported to overheat around here stuck in traffic(with lots of range remaining). One of those owners later sent an email to his kid's PTA to seek help from Tesla engineers in the group. It was rumored that Tesla(some said Musk in person) made amends in exchange for owner silence.

Another similarly affected owner that Labor Day was a friend of coworker, their family was stuck along Hwy 1, and paid Uber $300+ to get home(no tow service for hours that weekend). Their silence was also bought by Tesla, but he sold his Model S shortly after.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

Michael Schott said:


> A lot of people have been using CR's car reviews to make buying decisions for decades. Do you think they are doctoring the results of their surveys?


That's certInly a possibility. Aside from those types of issues, I'm not really sold on the validity of a very new model reliability rating, regardless of who builds the product. Obviously that is only one of many factors evaluated/rated.

I haven't look at a CR report on cars for quite some time, correct me if I'm wrong but they do list reliability on brand new models.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Wgosma said:


> That's certInly a possibility. Aside from those types of issues, I'm not really sold on the validity of a very new model reliability rating, regardless of who builds the product. Obviously that is only one of many factors evaluated/rated.
> 
> I haven't look at a CR report on cars for quite some time, correct me if I'm wrong but they do list reliability on brand new models.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


You think it's a possibility they are fudging their surveys? Seriously? What would they have to gain other than destroying their credibility?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> Cr is very good with their data and reviews are honest as well. They have a very good testing facility for there automobiles.


Model S has been worst-than-average according to CR until recently(now is better-than-average), plus Model X is least reliable according to CR.

CR also predicts average reliability on Model 3. Even Tesla vehemently objects, one source (in post#837)is also not that impressed by Tesla.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> Model S has been worst-than-average according to CR until recently(now is better-than-average), plus Model X is least reliable according to CR.
> 
> CR also predicts average reliability on Model 3. Even Tesla vehemently objects, one source (in post#837)is also not that impressed by Tesla.


Tesla will attack any negative reviews. They attack the IIHS because they did not give tesla
Model S a top safety pick plus rating

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

Michael Schott said:


> You think it's a possibility they are fudging their surveys? Seriously? What would they have to gain other than destroying their credibility?


Well Michael....I bet if you give it a little creative thought to this possibility you can can likely come up with one or perhaps more reasons an organization and/or some of its employees might 'benefit' from tweaking the 'facts/data' we readers see in print.

'Alternate Facts'....Kellyanne wasn't the inventor/origin of that concept-been around for quite a long time in the realm of humanity 

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

Michael Schott said:


> A lot of people have been using CR's car reviews to make buying decisions for decades. Do you think they are doctoring the results of their surveys?


They're very fair and correct yet have a pronounced bias toward things nerd + ecological.

Not that there's anything wrong with that....just gotta know to interpret their conclusions correctly.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> They're very fair and correct yet have a pronounced bias toward things nerd + ecological.
> 
> Not that there's anything wrong with that....just gotta know to interpret their conclusions correctly.


....I'm still stuck on why so many Prius drivers have a heavy foot, maybe CR bears some responsibility with these rampant speed-deamons? 

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> They're very fair and correct yet have a pronounced bias toward things nerd + ecological.
> 
> Not that there's anything wrong with that....just gotta know to interpret their conclusions correctly.


Not true besides the model S other cars that got high road test scores according to Consumer reports were the 911, 2 series, and Corvette. I would not call those cars nerdy


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

eazy said:


> Not true besides the model S other cars that got high road test scores according to Consumer reports were the 911, 2 series, and Corvette. I would not call those cars nerdy


They come to valid conclusions - keep in mind these cars were among the best in class - CR has many classes.

But their affection is most on display for other cars.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Wgosma said:


> Well Michael....I bet if you give it a little creative thought to this possibility you can can likely come up with one or perhaps more reasons an organization and/or some of its employees might 'benefit' from tweaking the 'facts/data' we readers see in print.
> 
> 'Alternate Facts'....Kellyanne wasn't the inventor/origin of that concept-been around for quite a long time in the realm of humanity
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


I want you to enlighten us all rather than throwing conspiracy theories.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> They come to valid conclusions - keep in mind these cars were among the best in class - CR has many classes.
> 
> But their affection is most on display for other cars.


They rip a Lexus IS, TLX and Q50 apart. While giving praise to the A4, 3 series, and c class. CR was bored with the tlx. Many of the car writers at CR are enthusiasts

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## captainaudio (Jul 17, 2007)

CR has a state of the art facility for testing cars in Colchester, CT.

While in the past they may have complained about things like leg room in the back seat of a Porsche 911 for some time now they seem to be aware of what a car was designed to do and rate them accordingly.










https://www.consumerreports.org/cars-how-consumer-reports-tests-cars/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> How am I a Tesla apologist? Tell me what I***8217;ve posted that***8217;s not true. My job is to show a balanced point of view.


Your balanced of view appear to be unbalanced without(by your own admission) some basic daily interaction of Tesla owners and hearing first-hand accounts of their problems and despair.

Your posts label Tesla as:

high tech
trendy
DD sports sedan

Those are echo chambers of Tesla's tag lines instead of critical analysis of the clues presented by owners and independent sources to see through the fake news presented to the crowd by Tesla, and that's disappointing.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Your balanced of view appear to be unbalanced without(by your own admission) some basic daily interaction of Tesla owners and hearing first-hand accounts of their problems and despair.
> 
> Your posts label Tesla as:
> 
> ...


You like to attack me when what I say doesn't fit your agenda. I don't get my info from Tesla and have never read any Tesla forums except the link you put out there which if you read it with an open mind shows the OP in that thread was wrong when it comes to normal use of the car. I get my info from enthusiast car magazines by the way. I am an enthusiast, I'm not sure what your interest is.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> You like to attack me when what I say doesn't fit your agenda. I don't get my info from Tesla and have never read any Tesla forums except the link you put out there which if you read it with an open mind shows the OP in that thread was wrong when it comes to normal use of the car. I get my info from enthusiast car magazines by the way. I am an enthusiast, I'm not sure what your interest is.


My interest is to share real-life clues and info that festers can use to independently and critically evaluate the products of interest(e.g. this thread is on Tesla, Model 3, F30), and/or issues with F30(e.g. TC, BMW gearing up for electric assaults).

Forums are not real life, and in real life owners of these Tesla, F30, etc, etc, do experience problems, compromises, and/or shortcuts(good and bad), and to get to facts(good or bad), one has to see through what cheerful/groomy forums and echo chambers(good and bad) car magazines say and be objectively critical.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

captainaudio said:


> While in the past they may have complained about things like leg room in the back seat of a Porsche 911 for some time now they seem to be aware of what a car was designed to do and rate them accordingly.


Being a tall boy, I complain about it myself. But I did stuff two super-sized teenagers back there; stabbed brakes from 80+ mph. Cheers, demands to buy the car; no complaints.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

.

Boys, as a follow-up to few pages back, it's official: *LA is the most congested spot in US of A*

Dang we sure was hopin' SF Bay Area would take the crown, but couldn't hold a candle....


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

.

Now, you may be thinking: Light rail is sure to be packed with traffic like that!

Look no farther than the spankin' new *Marin/Sonoma SMART Train*.

*Boondoggle!*

Autonomous tech, we want you.


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> Boys, as a follow-up to few pages back, it's official: LA is the most congested spot in US of A
> 
> Dang we sure was hopin' SF Bay Area would take the crown, but couldn't hold a candle....


According to INRIX, Everett, WA is now worst (article in Seattle Times this morning.)


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

floydarogers said:


> According to INRIX, Everett, WA is now worst (article in Seattle Times this morning.)


Absurd!

Preposterous!

Impossible!

Millions of Angelenos agree.....


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

floydarogers said:


> According to INRIX, Everett, WA is now worst (article in Seattle Times this morning.)


I don't know. DC/Northern Virginia has been trading off with LA the last few years for most time lost in traffic per year. All depends on the metric and who's measuring!


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

mr_clueless said:


> I was in the south bay last week and saw a model 3 on the highway on my drive back home. I thought it looked pretty nice. Of course it wasn't close enough to check the detail.
> 
> .


I have yet to see a Model 3 in person, but from a styling standpoint (assuming Tesla stays in in business for the 'long term') I do wonder if the rather 'sleek' styling will endure the test of time? i.e. will Tesla set a benchmark of sorts for overall appearance?....or, will the design become just one of many that seem to become 'dated' after not all that many years?


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

Wgosma said:


> I have yet to see a Model 3 in person, but from a styling standpoint (assuming Tesla stays in in business for the 'long term') I do wonder if the rather 'sleek' styling will endure the test of time? i.e. will Tesla set a benchmark of sorts for overall appearance?....or, will the design become just one of many that seem to become 'dated' after not all that many years?


The model 3 is pretty ugly IMO. It's proportions look all out of balance (nose too short and slanted, rear tail comes up too high), kind of like the model X. Until they revealed the upcoming roadster, I was wondering if they were capable of designing a good looking car again...


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

I like the Model 3 styling. Tesla is not constrained by having to design around an engine so the proportions don't have to be traditional. Some may not like that. It's very aerodynamic and futuristic which is appropriate to me.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

No complaints with exterior styling. I do have a problem with other aspects of the design -- no key, single center display.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FaRKle! said:


> The model 3 is pretty ugly IMO. It's proportions look all out of balance (nose too short and slanted, rear tail comes up too high), kind of like the model X. Until they revealed the upcoming roadster, I was wondering if they were capable of designing a good looking car again...


To me, the Model 3/S/X looks are Tesla's current identity, namely, that shape/style is what announces a Tesla in rear view mirror. 

The short nose and high rear may also have to do with chassis design and long wheelbase to accommodate battery pack, plus the hatchback for space/3rd row.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

mr_clueless said:


> No complaints with exterior styling. I do have a problem with other aspects of the design -- no key, single center display.


I'm old school...that center touch-screen LCD is not to my liking from a functional nor aesthetic standpoint. Exterior styling looks sleek/clean....but I wonder how we'll be viewing this design/body style in 10 years time?


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## Al Bundy (Jun 2, 2013)

Until Telsas have the same engine sound of an M3/4 or even a 335/340, they wont have my attention.


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

namelessman said:


> ...My views of EV and Tesla took another turn recently while passing the accident scene of a Model X crash that killed an Apple engineer. The extent of the fire damage when seen first hand brings forth yet another sets of "attributes" Tesla and EV believers do not usually talk about .... Buyers beware.


Article in today's paper says that Tesla announced the driver had the autopilot running, hands off the wheel when the crash happened. Why are people so stupid?


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

floydarogers said:


> Article in today's paper says that Tesla announced the driver had the autopilot running, hands off the wheel when the crash happened. Why are people so stupid?


Machine watching human waiting for human to make mistake -> Good idea 
[Machines don't tire doing the same task.]

Human watching machine waiting for machine to make mistake -> Bad idea
[Humans have a really short attention span.]

Basically, it's a really bad idea to offer something like autopilot unless the car is capable of dealing with all situations (including complete system failure) on its own.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Btw, before one considers buying a Tesla, it would be a great idea to Google "Tesla body damage repair cost"..
. ..Insane!!! (Not to mention the impact on insurance premiums)
The fact that Tesla doesn't sell body parts directly to the end user is also ridiculous.
Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## LMK5 (Jul 2, 2014)

Microsoft Office apps have been combed over for decades, yet I can't go a single day without Outlook, Word, or Excel announcing "...not responding". But in my cubicle I can just wait and hope, call up Task Manager, or reboot. Will the driver of an autonomous vehicle be able to easily access his CTL, ALT and Delete buttons? Will this be part of the ergonomics design goals?


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Aren’t there isolated cases of BMWs spontaneously combusting? 

I don’t see how that impacted me buying two new ones over the past 2 years. 

Point being, one or even 10 incidents aren’t indicative of an entire model run


Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark K said:


> Yeah, I didn't have to deal with that - fortunately  Now, it took us quite some time before gasoline-powered cars became really fire-safe. Some 70 years, if we assume that it stopped with Pinto fires. So, I guess we will solve EV fires sometime by 2050 - we DID learn something from gas fires, right?
> 
> Thanks!


Several tangents intersect in Tesla's case, e.g. the flat rectangular battery packs are integral to the CG and form factors of Tesla, and yet the flat packs with its large surface areas are not easy to protect that a square/cube, plus how one damaged cell leads to others to catch fire(just like a spark ignites the whole gas tank), plus fire suppression of lithium battery is very different than gasoline/diesel fire.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Machine watching human waiting for human to make mistake -> Good idea
> [Machines don't tire doing the same task.]
> 
> Human watching machine waiting for machine to make mistake -> Bad idea
> ...


Given all the Tesla marketing spins, buyers should pay attention that currently the level 4 autonomous driving claimed by Tesla probably is at best level 3.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Several tangents intersect in Tesla's case, e.g. the flat rectangular battery packs are integral to the CG and form factors of Tesla, and yet the flat packs with its large surface areas are not easy to protect that a square/cube, plus how one damaged cell leads to others to catch fire(just like a spark ignites the whole gas tank), plus fire suppression of lithium battery is very different than gasoline/diesel fire.


Are there statistically significant numbers of Tesla's catching fire?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Are there statistically significant numbers of Tesla***8217;s catching fire?


Stats for cutting edge tech is few and far between, so your data/guess is as good as mine.

It is customer's choice to become parts of the stats one way or the other, and time will tell which stats one belongs to.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

here are some model s fire incidents and some modifications done to address them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S

obviously in the most recent model x accident, whatever fix they have to protect the battery did not work.

here is an older article:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...fires-are-more-frequent-in-the-tesla-model-s/


> When you look at the number of fires in collisions, (the numbers come from here and here) it comes to one in 32,603 registered vehicles. That's far less frequent than one fire per 6,333 Model S's.


also, the fact that anytime the battery casing breaks, we have a hazmat situation that emergency responders aren't trained to deal with is concerning. in this case, they sent their engineers to help remove the battery/car from the crash site.
https://electrek.co/2018/03/23/tesla-fire-battery-pack-model-x-crash/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> here are some model s fire incidents and some modifications done to address them.
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicle_fire_incidents#Tesla_Model_S
> 
> obviously in the most recent model x accident, whatever fix they have to protect the battery did not work.
> ...


Another point is, the battery pack reaching from axle to axle, and left to right rocker panels, versus typical fuel tanks being at the rear, may contribute to increased stats to battery pack damages in collisions.


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## CALWATERBOY DUE (May 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> Another point is, the battery pack reaching from axle to axle, and left to right rocker panels, versus typical fuel tanks being at the rear, may contribute to increased stats to battery pack damages in collisions.


2 years to autonomy. Seeing Model 3's every day now. Not hearing of battery issues, Tesla collisions.....potential issue, or happening?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY DUE said:


> 2 years to autonomy. Seeing Model 3's every day now. Not hearing of many battery issues, Tesla collisions.....potential hazard not often seen, or happening? Maybe it's that Tesla collisions are rare.
> 
> .


In a way Tesla(any) is rare, given they are approaching 200k units lifetime of the company, while BMW ships 150k-ish 3-series in US yearly.

As of right now, that few crash incidents do show up in stats.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Mark K said:


> Electric? Being the opposite, best mileage is in the city with ton of regen braking, while worst is no brake (Interstate) or using real brakes (canning it on backroads). Still, best range is 150 miles; while maybe not even worst (I am sure I could do better in being bad  ) is 40 miles extrapolated from today's results which would be almost 4 ratio. That is past bad - that is unacceptable. I will be curious to see how will BMW and Porsche deal with this. Porsche Mission E is already tooting 600 miles range horn, but wait until owners learn it means 150 when driven like a Porsche should be driven. I can't wait to see the numbers for G20 EV - or the i series equivalent of G20. Just remember folks, whatever number they present as the range, divide that by factor of 4 if you want to know the range for proper driving.


Additionally, with a drop in temperature you also see a significant drop in battery range as noted in this article -- they tested the Bolt at 56 F and 36 F and found more than 25% variation.
https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-tesla-model-3-test-review


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Additionally, with a drop in temperature you also see a significant drop in battery range as noted in this article -- they tested the Bolt at 56 F and 36 F and found more than 25% variation.
> https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-tesla-model-3-test-review


https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/coldweather.shtml

Gaoline/hybrid has similar issues:
_
"Fuel economy tests show that, in short-trip city driving, a conventional gasoline car's gas mileage is about 12% lower at 20°F than it would be at 77°F. It can drop as much as 22% for very short trips (3 to 4 miles).

The effect on hybrids is worse. Their fuel economy can drop about 31% to 34% under these conditions."_

Nonetheless 25%(e.g.) drop of 500+ (e.g. F30) versus 300-ish of Model S in range is still a 150-mile margin in favor of gasoline.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Electric range drop will be much worse than the 25% cited for 56->36 F if going 77->20 F.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Electric range drop will be much worse than the 25% cited for 56->36 F if going 77->20 F.


That is true.

In addition to temperature drop, electric range also takes a hit going uphill.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> That is true.
> 
> In addition to temperature drop, electric range also takes a hit going uphill.


I was going to say that too, but there is a hit even for gas cars when going uphill, so unless we see a comparison, we don't know if it's any worse. Unless Mark K's driving is indicative of what happens when going uphill.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> I was going to say that too, but there is a hit even for gas cars when going uphill, so unless we see a comparison, we don't know if it's any worse. Unless Mark K's driving is indicative of what happens when going uphill.


Some friends showed me their logs of Model S versus F30 going from Sacramento to Lake Tahoe(around 6400-ft climb) in spring/summer weather, say, 70F.

Model S was 371Wh/mile, while F30 328i was around 18 mpg. So around 70F, F30's 16-gallon tank has a range of 288 miles, while a 75kWh Model S can last 200 miles.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elevation-gain-and-range-new-driver-question.86432/

This is an interesting thread about Tesla Model S range going uphill. A rough estimate is 10 miles of range lost per 1000 ft elevation.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

JamesWWIII said:


> Uh oh...
> 
> https://jalopnik.com/consumer-reports-says-it-found-big-flaws-with-the-tesla-1826198783
> 
> :eeps:


"CARS.COM - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced that the 2018 Volvo XC90 and Tesla Model X SUVs have been awarded five-star safety ratings. That's the federal safety agency's highest designation."

Funny how everyone gasps and clutches their pearls when THEIR beloved car gets a negative review from CR......

Road noise? Braking? as compared to what?

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

FCBayernFTW said:


> "CARS.COM - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced that the 2018 Volvo XC90 and Tesla Model X SUVs have been awarded five-star safety ratings. That's the federal safety agency's highest designation."
> 
> Funny how everyone gasps and clutches their pearls when THEIR beloved car gets a negative review from CR......
> 
> As far as the model 3, Road noise? Braking? as compared to what? That's their entry level vehicle.


As compared to a Ford F-150 truck, which can outstop this compact sedan. And Tesla's "entry level vehicle" is currently only available in a build that will run a buyer in excess of $50,000. And for that price, you get the honor of being one of Elon's beta testers. I'd be willing to bet that if anyone here paid $50k for a 3-series and suffered the list of faults that Edmunds has experienced with their long-term Model 3, they'd be making posts bordering on homicidal.

And sorry, but I don't see what the safety ratings of the Volvo XC90 or Tesla Model X have to do with the article I linked to or this thread in general.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

With Tesla one has the exclusive honour of not being the actual owner and ultimate "decider" of what you want to do with your car, a virtue shared only with "owners" of the Ferrari XX series.
Tesla decides where you will fix your car, you cannot buy parts from independent suppliers, which means you are not able to shop competitively, Tesla decides when you will get the software updates and when and where your fastcharge privileges are applicable or not. 
Tesla could also decide, if they chose to, to limit the performance of your car remotely to preserve the batteries' life and you would be hard pressed to prove any interference by the "Mothership" just similarly to the Apple iphone situation.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Dio///M said:


> With Tesla one has the exclusive honour of not being the actual owner and ultimate "decider" of what you want to do with your car, a virtue shared only with "owners" of the Ferrari XX series.
> Tesla decides where you will fix your car, you cannot buy parts from independent suppliers, which means you are not able to shop competitively, Tesla decides when you will get the software updates and when and where your fastcharge privileges are applicable or not.
> Tesla could also decide, if they chose to, to limit the performance of your car remotely to preserve the batteries' life and you would be hard pressed to prove any interference by the "Mothership" just similarly to the Apple iphone situation.
> 
> Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


What parts other than tires and wipers do you need to buy for a Tesla?


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Michael Schott said:


> What parts other than tires and wipers do you need to buy for a Tesla?


I imagine that except for the engine and drivetrain, everything else on a Tesla is the same as ICE vehicles...body panels, windows and the internal mechanisms of the rest of the cars' structure including suspension components, wheel and bearings, braking components, srtuctural integrity parts,the electrical stuff etc...
....Then there is the incredible massive cost of repairing a crashed Tesla compared to other cars..They cost a whole lot more to fix than do other cars so AAA raised their rates.
When you Google "Tesla body damage repair cost" you'll be shocked at the amount of testimonies by owners about their adventures of getting a simple door ding repair for sums upwards of $4k and you usually see thread titles like " DON'T CRASH YOUR TESLA" or " DON'T BUMP YOUR PANELS"....
Based on my readings of Tesla owners in their forums, one small or medium sized crash with your Tesla can negatively offset all your fuel cost savings and ICE components costs for the entire life time ownership of the car taking into account the initial higher cost of insuring in the first place.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Dio///M said:


> I imagine that except for the engine and drivetrain, everything else on a Tesla is the same as ICE vehicles...body panels, windows and the internal mechanisms of the rest of the cars' structure including suspension components, wheel and bearings, braking components, srtuctural integrity parts,the electrical stuff etc...
> ....Then there is the incredible massive cost of repairing a crashed Tesla compared to other cars..They cost a whole lot more to fix than do other cars so AAA raised their rates.
> When you Google "Tesla body damage repair cost" you'll be shocked at the amount of testimonies by owners about their adventures of getting a simple door ding repair for sums upwards of $4k and you usually see thread titles like " DON'T CRASH YOUR TESLA" or " DON'T BUMP YOUR PANELS"....
> Based on my readings of Tesla owners in their forums, one small or medium sized crash with your Tesla can negatively offset all your fuel cost savings and ICE components costs for the entire life time ownership of the car taking into account the initial higher cost of insuring in the first place.
> ...


How much does it cost to repair a BMW vs a Ford Fusion?


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## Lennysx5 (Dec 16, 2017)

And ppl think electricity is free/cheap, environmentally friendly, easily accessible and plentiful. Hello! Not so much! And the Tesla is useless on a long road trip unless you have 3 days to make a 1 day trip. 
Give me a fuel efficient performance diesel any day of the week. 


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Lennysx5 said:


> And ppl think electricity is free/cheap, environmentally friendly, easily accessible and plentiful. Hello! Not so much! And the Tesla is useless on a long road trip unless you have 3 days to make a 1 day trip.
> Give me a fuel efficient performance diesel any day of the week.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Supercharger stations seem to be more common these days. A Tesla S owner I know takes his family from Detroit to Myrtle Beach, NC with no trouble. Charging takes 30-40 minutes.


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## tex2670 (May 31, 2014)

FCBayernFTW said:


> As far as the model 3, Road noise? Braking? *as compared to what?* That's their entry level vehicle.


Compared to other cars that cost $50,000, and can go up to $75,000 if you want to add AWD. Doesn't matter that it's "entry level"--that's a meaningless phrase. How much does it cost, and what do you get from other cars that cost that much?

I've seen a few reviews, and the one universal positive so far seems to be that it's fast, and handles great. I haven't seem much else in the way of positives--when compared to other $50,000 cars. Will some people buy it just because it's the newest thing? Sure--but this was supposed to be the livable electric car for the masses. Early returns seem to indicate that the Model 3 misses that mark.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

.......^^^^...You can bet your brand new runflats that a $50k - $75k Bmw or any other German sedan will also be a blast to drive and just as fast for MUCH LONGER than a full battery charge.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Dio///M said:


> .......^^^^...You can bet your brand new runflats that a $50k - $75k Bmw or any other German sedan will also be a blast to drive and just as fast for MUCH LONGER than a full battery charge.
> 
> Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


Show me a review of a non-M BMW in the last 7-8 years that was shown to be a blast to drive. The Tesla S and 3 have their issues but the basic design with the low center of gravity and how Tesla tunes the suspension makes for exceptional handling feel.


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## tex2670 (May 31, 2014)

Michael Schott said:


> Show me a review of a non-M BMW in the last 7-8 years that was shown to be a blast to drive. The Tesla S and 3 have their issues but the basic design with the low center of gravity and how Tesla tunes the suspension makes for exceptional handling feel.


The fact is that it doesn't matter. The Model 3 is supposed to be the affordable electric car with the 300 mile range. If the marketing pitch becomes that it is the best handling car in its (wide) price range, Tesla has already lost. There's not enough customers that care about having the best handling car, as opposed to a good or great handling car, to support Tesla's sales goals. It's not a coincidence that BMW has purposely moved away from the handling benchmark that it once was--there's more sales to be had from customers that want a "nice" car, not a great handling car. Quality issues with the Model 3 won't get it there, if it's not $35,000.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Show me a review of a non-M BMW in the last 7-8 years that was shown to be a blast to drive. The Tesla S and 3 have their issues but the basic design with the low center of gravity and how Tesla tunes the suspension makes for exceptional handling feel.


This is a good summary of what my limited seat time on Model S resembled in terms of ride and handling, in summary the handling feel is neither here nor there. Model S can be a different experience though(no seat time yet behind steering wheel).

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-review/tesla/model-s/ride


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Some interesting data on Model S weight distribution. Tesla website says Model S is 48/52 (not sure if it is RWD or AWD one)@4600lb.

The electric motor + inverter is 350 lb. In contrast, the M54 I6 N/A is my old E39 is 277lb.

https://forums.teslarati.com/threads/tesla-model-s-weight-distribution.629/

The following article is interesting, with all that handling tech(standard? ) BMW may try to make G20 feel like a car with low CG just like Tesla.

http://www.bmwblog.com/2018/02/14/g20-bmw-3-series-lighter-will-feature-laser-headlights/


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

Michael Schott said:


> Show me a review of a non-M BMW in the last 7-8 years that was shown to be a blast to drive. The Tesla S and 3 have their issues but the basic design with the low center of gravity and how Tesla tunes the suspension makes for exceptional handling feel.


Yeah, Tesla tunes the suspension so well that there are numerous reports of people who bought a 2017 Model 3 and have such dislike of the stiffness ("bone-rattling" and "teeth-jarring" were some of the descriptions I've come across) that Tesla has replaced their entire setup. More beta testing. :tsk:

Oh, and read almost any review of the M240i if you want to see people talking about a BMW that's a blast to drive. I'll assume you don't count that as a proper M car, despite the designation.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

tex2670 said:


> The fact is that it doesn't matter. The Model 3 is supposed to be the affordable electric car with the 300 mile range. If the marketing pitch becomes that it is the best handling car in its (wide) price range, Tesla has already lost. There's not enough customers that care about having the best handling car, as opposed to a good or great handling car, to support Tesla's sales goals. It's not a coincidence that BMW has purposely moved away from the handling benchmark that it once was--there's more sales to be had from customers that want a "nice" car, not a great handling car. Quality issues with the Model 3 won't get it there, if it's not $35,000.


That's not the point. Tesla has never to my knowledge emphasized handling in their marketing. The design of the chassis and the tuning of the suspension guarantee good handling. It's a side benefit. Tesla's advantage in the market is their expertise in building long range EV's. The Bolt is the only other choice and it's not of interest to a driving enthusiast.

The $35K bogey is artificial. No one should buy into Musk's marketing. You can buy a stripped 320i for that but no one does. A 328i starts at about $41K but most are over $50K retail.

But the bottom line is there are obviously enough people willing to plop down the deposit and wait for their car, flaws and all. It may not be enough for Tesla to survive long term but that remains to be seen.

I'm not sure what my next car will be as I am paying off my GTI. I need a sedan and am attracted to the idea of an EV. But it will be at least 2024 before I'm in the market. If I were in the market now, a BMW 3 series does not offer enough of what I want in a car. I'd consider a Guilia if it offered a MT.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

JamesWWIII said:


> Yeah, Tesla tunes the suspension so well that there are numerous reports of people who bought a 2017 Model 3 and have such dislike of the stiffness ("bone-rattling" and "teeth-jarring" were some of the descriptions I've come across) that Tesla has replaced their entire setup. More beta testing. :tsk:
> 
> Oh, and read almost any review of the M240i if you want to see people talking about a BMW that's a blast to drive. I'll assume you don't count that as a proper M car, despite the designation.


Nothing wrong with the M240i except it lacks 2 doors. No one is saying that Tesla hasn't had teething issues. No one should have expected otherwise given their history. By the way how much better was a 2014 3 series vs a 2012. Answer: A hell of a lot in every way.


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## tex2670 (May 31, 2014)

Michael Schott said:


> That's not the point. Tesla has never to my knowledge emphasized handling in their marketing. The design of the chassis and the tuning of the suspension guarantee good handling. It's a side benefit. Tesla's advantage in the market is their expertise in building long range EV's. The Bolt is the only other choice and it's not of interest to a driving enthusiast.
> 
> The $35K bogey is artificial. No one should buy into Musk's marketing. You can buy a stripped 320i for that but no one does. A 328i starts at about $41K but most are over $50K retail.
> 
> ...


There are enough people to plop down a deposit and wait for *promises*--I'm not convinced that all those deposits are from people that will accept all of the published flaws. I'm eager to see what the take rate ends up being--I'm sure plenty of those deposits are going to get refunded based on the final product being disappointing.


----------



## Lennysx5 (Dec 16, 2017)

Seems that the Musketeer is mass producing a vehicle that’s not refined enuf to be mass produced. Will enough of the performance car enthusiasts drink the Kool Aid to make it work?


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Double Tap (Jul 5, 2017)

*I think I will stay with burning dinosaurs.*

Do people really think Tesla will be in business in 2020? That would be my number one concern about buying a Tesla. Consumer Reports it's impressed either - https://www.consumerreports.org/hyb...lls-short-of-consumer-reports-recommendation/


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Some do, and they ain't happy with the range.
> 
> Some also are deciding Model 3 or not as their reservations are due, but range is also giving them pauses.
> 
> How about your contacts? Everyone happy with 200-300 best case ranges?


I have a friend with a Model S. He loves it. Has taken it from Michigan to South Carolina a few times on family vacations. No issues.

Another had a Chevy Volt. He may get another. Plugged it in every night in his garage which has a dedicated charger and in the morning it was good to go.

Living with an EV is not the same as an ICE. There's no question about this. But those that do, know this and adjust.

For me, due to my job which requires a lot of driving, EV's are not practical. Mostly because of the lack of charging stations.


----------



## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

bear-avhistory said:


> Another tidbit about energy, the United States exported 186,000 barrels *per day* of jet fuel in 2017, the eleventh consecutive year of increasing gross jet fuel exports.


But where did the crude to refine the jet fuel come from? The US is one of the world's major exporters of refined fuels, but the crude oil that's refined into those products is usually imported.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

bear-avhistory said:


> No spin just factual information to use or ignore. The EIA logo in the lower right corner is for the US governments US Energy Information Administration so its not a promo from the petroleum institute. :thumbup:
> 
> Another tidbit about energy, the United States exported 186,000 barrels *per day* of jet fuel in 2017, the eleventh consecutive year of increasing gross jet fuel exports.


I dont really understand what you were trying to argue.
I am not green and have no preference for being green, red or blue. All i care about is not sending my money to the middle east.

But, answer this, NYC area represents about 2.5% of total US population and gets its power from oil plants, which account for *one half of one percent* of all electricity* produced in all of US*, how does that reconcile? Are we really that efficient?


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> When was the last time a company cut 9% of its employees because things were going well?


That was back in '08.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> First, layoff non production staff first, and keep production staff for now to push through production.
> 
> If sales does not match expectation, then the production staff will follow.


True --> announcement was 9% cut in white collar jobs.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

PK2348 said:


> I dont really understand what you were trying to argue.
> I am not green and have no preference for being green, red or blue. All i care about is not sending my money to the middle east.
> 
> But, answer this, NYC area represents about 2.5% of total US population and gets its power from oil plants, which account for *one half of one percent* of all electricity* produced in all of US*, how does that reconcile? Are we really that efficient?


Well come on out the the Sunshine State!

We got solar....got lotsa solar....can't build anything w/o solar....we're dang *lousy* with solar. Not the most efficient production, but Govt. legislated braggin' rights.

And now we got spankin' new 55 gal per day per person water restriction! Yepper, green as celery and just wonderful in Kalifornia where, embarrassingly, ave water use is 80-100 gal per person per day.

Difference? You betcha! Fines apply. Like making health insurance illegal not to buy, California Democrats are following the Obama way.

Maybe they'll up the Tesla subsidy. If California did that, would be normal.


----------



## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Well come on out the the Sunshine State!
> 
> We got solar....got lotsa solar....can't build anything w/o solar....we're dang *lousy* with solar. Not the most efficient production, but Govt. legislated braggin' rights.
> 
> ...


FL is the Sunshine State. CA is the Golden State.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Well come on out the the Sunshine State!
> 
> We got solar....got lotsa solar....can't build anything w/o solar....we're dang *lousy* with solar. Not the most efficient production, but Govt. legislated braggin' rights.
> 
> ...


No thanks, all of that plus the big earthquake in the works?
Think i'll stay in Brooklyn


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

mr_clueless said:


> FL is the Sunshine State. CA is the Golden State.


Ha! We got solar radiation all righty....and a mandate to cover every parking lot with solar panels. Not kiddin'.

You're prob not much different, and have the distinct advantage of cleansing rain, 'bout 4 pm daily? That way in Orlando as remembered.


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## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

PK2348 said:


> But, answer this, NYC area represents about 2.5% of total US population and gets its power from oil plants, which account for *one half of one percent* of all electricity* produced in all of US*, how does that reconcile? Are we really that efficient?


Most of ConEd's power actually comes from Hydropower from Canada. If they use any oil-fired power, it's for peaking use (4 pm until 7pm or so) only. It's far too expensive and polluting for baseload production.

All this information is readily available online. A good resource is the EPRI website, or EPA, or DOE.


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

At some point you have to combine tech forces. I have no doubt that BMW, AUDI, MB, have major EV plans. The E cars they will be after 2020 are much better than model 3. Sorry.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

They are not battery companies so I don’t see how you get to that conclusion. Once battery tech gets there everyone will have equal access to it give or take a few months, maybe a year at most.


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

It's the next big thing, and it's just around the corner. Trust me. And if you've got a couple million to invest, I can get you in on the ground floor.





































Come on, be a baller. You'll never forgive yourself if you miss out on this.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> They are not battery companies so I don***8217;t see how you get to that conclusion. Once battery tech gets there everyone will have equal access to it give or take a few months, maybe a year at most.


Tesla does have its own battery factory, there is not much news from that development though.

Honestly battery as a storage medium is still sub par at this point.

Maybe there needs to be a govt mandate to massively produce liquid hydrogen with wind + solar, and use liquid hydrogen to generate electricity and/or fuel ICEs with existing infrastructure, e.g. the 24 pumps at local Costco!


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

namelessman said:


> Tesla does have its own battery factory, there is not much news from that development though.


Just to be clear, point that I was making is that Germany's big 3 will have no special advantage over others. Tesla obviously has been in the lead, but that lead is likely to narrow, or even be surpassed, as battery companies step up their game. And at that point, everyone, including Tesla, would have equal access to it. The differentiation will only be around packaging, marketing, and execution.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

PK2348 said:


> I dont really understand what you were trying to argue.
> I am not green and have no preference for being green, red or blue. All i care about is not sending my money to the middle east.
> 
> But, answer this, NYC area represents about 2.5% of total US population and gets its power from oil plants, which account for *one half of one percent* of all electricity* produced in all of US*, how does that reconcile? Are we really that efficient?


Simple, major population centers by default have more people. More people will have a larger density of Tesla's then the countryside which does not even have enough charging stations to support the car. Think NC population 10 million has 8 or 9 all in cities. Oil fires electric generation is mostly in cities. The US is #2 in the world with coal fired electric generation again feeding big cities.

People living in high population density areas driving Tesla's are charging with carbon based fuel & are not environmentally clean zero emission cars.

On mid east oil:

In 2017 the US net imports were 19% of our total usage. Canada accounted for 40% & #2 Saudi Arabia 9% Source US Energy Administration. A few years down the road we will be a net exporter.


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## jwalz1 (May 31, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Maybe there needs to be a govt mandate to


Here is where anything you could have said lost all credibility.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Just to be clear, point that I was making is that Germany's big 3 will have no special advantage over others. Tesla obviously has been in the lead, but that lead is likely to narrow, or even be surpassed, as battery companies step up their game. And at that point, everyone, including Tesla, would have equal access to it. The differentiation will only be around packaging, marketing, and execution.


Yes most do not realize Tesla is mainly an assembly line instead of a tech company innovating battery tech and such. The sophisticated battery management software that monitors the 6k+ batteries is cool but it really is not enough differentiation to give Tesla significant tech moat.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

jwalz1 said:


> Here is where anything you could have said lost all credibility.


No worries, credibility is not my thing. 

And as a reminder, EVs are consequences of CARB, which is govt mandate anyway. :thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> How do you explain the fact that automakers like BMW, GM and Ford are spending billions on EV development?


So when CARB asks for 4.2m EVs by 2030, automakers like BMW, GM and Ford spend on EVs.

What if CARB asks for 4.2m hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2030? Do automakers like BMW, GM and Ford follow?

The reality is govt mandates control and override many business decisions related to "clean" vehicles.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energy...tate-plan-charts-the-road-ahead/#6a69a6b04b44


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Does fester have first hand experience of Model 3 to comment on the comparisons made in this article?

http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/08/02/t...eries-vs-mercedes-benz-c-class-per-bloomberg/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Does fester have first hand experience of Model 3 to comment on the comparisons made in this article?

http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/08/02/t...eries-vs-mercedes-benz-c-class-per-bloomberg/


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## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

namelessman said:


> Does fester have first hand experience of Model 3 to comment on the comparisons made in this article?
> 
> http://www.bmwblog.com/2017/08/02/t...eries-vs-mercedes-benz-c-class-per-bloomberg/


Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

Gamico said:


> Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

Gamico said:


> Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


First off. I want to state that I am a former 340 owner and now a Tesla Model 3 owner. I loved my 340i and did not want to sell it but I could get rid of our 3rd car (I can explain if you want to know). My next door neighbor purchased the 340 after I acquired the Tesla. He loves it.

That being said I think that the Model 3, as priced and configured, should only be judged against a 340. On paper - the price and specs are the same. I know you can argue the the Tesla does 0-60 in 5.1, but it feels closer to the 340 time.

Both cars are great, but different. The Tesla does handle better but feels heavy. I do not find find myself wanting to step on it as I did in the 340. After driving the Tesla as well as the 340, I felt like the I was driving a go kart with the 340 - but in a good way. It felt fun and easy to drive plus smaller.

Both are great cars. I waited 2 years for the Tesla. I wanted an electric, sporty, technological cutting edge car and I got it. if BMW made a fully electric 3 or 5, .....

Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Gamico said:


> First off. I want to state that I am a former 340 owner and now a Tesla Model 3 owner. I loved my 340i and did not want to sell it but I could get rid of our 3rd car (I can explain if you want to know). My next door neighbor purchased the 340 after I acquired the Tesla. He loves it.
> 
> That being said I think that the Model 3, as priced and configured, should only be judged against a 340. On paper - the price and specs are the same. I know you can argue the the Tesla does 0-60 in 5.1, but it feels closer to the 340 time.
> 
> ...


Very interesting feedback, thanks for sharing. :thumbup:

So it is the 340i that drives like a go-kart compared to Model 3? If so that is quite counter-intuitive, as many assume Model 3 with its low CG would be the go kart.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Very interesting feedback, thanks for sharing. :thumbup:
> 
> So it is the 340i that drives like a go-kart compared to Model 3? If so that is quite counter-intuitive, as many assume Model 3 with its low CG would be the go kart.


Neither car fits that description of driving dynamics.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Neither car fits that description of driving dynamics.


Your objection is on the go-kart description, correct?

If so, your trusted MT has an instrumented test article that does say Model 3 has go-kart handling:

http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesl...e-tesla-model-3-long-range-first-test-review/


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Your objection is on the go-kart description, correct?
> 
> If so, your trusted MT has an instrumented test article that does say Model 3 has go-kart handling:
> 
> http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesl...e-tesla-model-3-long-range-first-test-review/


I pay no attention to Motor Trend. Where did you get that?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> I pay no attention to Motor Trend. Where did you get that?


Numerous of your previous posts emphasize your car enthusiasm through reading car magazines.

C&D also has instrumented test:

https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/2018-tesla-model-3-test-review

Model 3 test drives should be available soon to get first hand experience.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Numerous of your previous posts emphasize your car enthusiasm through reading car magazines.
> 
> C&D also has instrumented test:
> 
> ...


That has nothing to do with MT using that term. I don't respect MT's reviews.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> That has nothing to do with MT using that term. I don't respect MT's reviews.


A friend gave me a ride(not behind wheel) on his Model 3 recently. It was a short ride but the 3900+lb was noticeable at corners.

My theory is that, although Model 3's CG is lower than, say, F30, the extra weight spread along the full length of the wheelbase still contributes to extra polar inertia around the axis of rotation, and does not help with handling.


----------



## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

Re. Go-kart comment was maybe not the best analogy. The cars are different but both great. The 340 feels smaller and in someways more maneuverable. Also, when you punch the 340 the engine with the transmission is so smooth and the sound! The Tesla is more like a bullet train on magnets or maybe a slot car.

A lot of this comparison could be that electric cars are different than an ICE car. The Tesla accelerates quickly but due to the regenerative brakes it slows down quickly. This makes it feel heavy in my opinion. I hardly use the brakes.

Both are fun on Mulholland.

Here is my opinion- I wish I could own both (or a 540). For $55k or so cars, both are terrific. I was going to explain my thoughts on what most reservationists expect from the Tesla, but you can form your own opinion from reading the Tesla forum.

Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest


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## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

Oh and finally. I would not have sold the 340i to my neighbor if I had any doubts the it was a great car. 

Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Gamico said:


> Re. Go-kart comment was maybe not the best analogy. The cars are different but both great. The 340 feels smaller and in someways more maneuverable. Also, when you punch the 340 the engine with the transmission is so smooth and the sound! The Tesla is more like a bullet train on magnets or maybe a slot car.
> 
> A lot of this comparison could be that electric cars are different than an ICE car. The Tesla accelerates quickly but due to the regenerative brakes it slows down quickly. This makes it feel heavy in my opinion. I hardly use the brakes.
> 
> ...


How does Model 3 perform in hilly terrain and twisty, e.g. going downhill curves?


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## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

Regarding curves. It’s terrific. It’s a different drive, mostly because when you let off the accelerator it decelerates quickly due to the regen. As far as steering feel, that as great as well. 


Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Model 3 sure killed my neighbors' 3 series. They used to have a 320i but I now see a Model 3 and the 320i is gone. I haven't had a chance to talk to them yet about it.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Model 3 sure killed my neighbors' 3 series. They used to have a 320i but I now see a Model 3 and the 320i is gone. I haven't had a chance to talk to them yet about it.


It is likely once Model 3 test drives can be scheduled, there will be more 3-series killed by Model 3.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Gamico said:


> Regarding curves. It***8217;s terrific. It***8217;s a different drive, mostly because when you let off the accelerator it decelerates quickly due to the regen. As far as steering feel, that as great as well.
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest


There were at least 5 Model 3 sightings on the road today.

One observation is that, the Model 3 wobbles on uneven terrain, both or surface streets and highways. That's surprising since the car is not taller than 3-series.

Does your Model 3 wobble, as in incline left/right?


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Looks like a whole bunch of folks won't be buying those Model 3's, now that they got their pink slips: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/tesla-set-close-dozen-solar-facilities-nine-states-n885791

Buy a company from your cousins? Halve the sales volume? Close down a partnership that accounts for half your sales? That wild and crazy Musketeer is looking less and less like Boy Wonder every day.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The fuel cost savings probably will be offset by the $10k+ battery replacement cost past 8 years.


Not much of an objection. 8 years? Is that a fact by the way?


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

Michael Schott said:


> Not much of an objection. 8 years? Is that a fact by the way?


That's the warranty. Kind of like arguing the high cost of replacing the engine in an ICE vehicle at 4 years/50,000 miles...


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Mark in NoVA said:


> That's the warranty. Kind of like arguing the high cost of replacing the engine in an ICE vehicle at 4 years/50,000 miles...


Thanks Mark. An 8 year warranty is longer than most people keep a car.


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## jwalz1 (May 31, 2013)

Drove my brothers model 3 last weekend. Nice car, decent interior if you can get past the minimalist single screen layout. Horrible brakes. But believe the hype on the instant torque. The acceleration/rocket boost when you floor it while moving is pretty fantastic. Nothing like it. It rides and handles well and I did not see anything that looked poorly put together but i did not go over it in detail, just took it for about 10 miles and punched it repeatedly. Litterally shocking acceleration in short spurts. Is it like having a big V8 from 30-50? No, it is faster. Effortless and repeatable.

Would I pay $50,000 for it? No. I HATE automatics. It is not entirely a one trick pony because it rides and handles very well. For a lot of 3 series owners it will be a great car. 

But I want some sound and fury once in a while, and a stick. So it does not do it for me. Not a bad car at all, but it seems like a far better option at $40k than the $50k it cost in that trim. 

The biggest head scratcher for me was the whatever package that is required to be ordered right now that include the heated seats and leather and the glass roff for $9k is the glass panorama roof. It is very nice to look out of the thing but if you are in the front seats you can't even really see out of it. The glass is a darkened curtain where the visors would be and I did not even notice any light coming in unless I turned my head around and looked back. I am sure it is great for backseat passenger but it does nothing for you from the drivers seat. I have the seat pulled forward at 5'6", so maybe if you are 6'5" and have the seat all the way back you will see some daylight in your field of view, but it won't be much. Total waste of option spending IMHO. This would make a much better car if in the future, all options can be had a'la carte.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> That's the warranty. Kind of like arguing the high cost of replacing the engine in an ICE vehicle at 4 years/50,000 miles...


An appropriate comparison should be EV battery to ICE fuel tank.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Thanks Mark. An 8 year warranty is longer than most people keep a car.


That's why Telsa has been marketing fuel cost savings to reduce effective cost of buying their cars.

By 8-year mark though, the $10k+ battery replacement will be on the mind on buyers of those cars.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Haven't seen any of that, 2008+ Model S.
> 
> Not Prius or Leaf, neither....


First Model S was shipped 2012, so 2 years towards 8-year mark.

The Model S battery degradation is all over the map, some says 1% for 60k miles, others 14% for 40k.

Let's say 30% degradation in 8 years, or from 200 miles (60kWh?) down to 140 miles.

That's still 70%, but it is unclear how buyers of these 8-year old 140-mile range Model S will pay for it, given $10k+ replacement cost is hanging in the air.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> That's why Telsa has been marketing fuel cost savings to reduce effective cost of buying their cars.
> 
> By 8-year mark though, the $10k+ battery replacement will be on the mind on buyers of those cars.


8 years is the warranty not the expiration of the batteries. By the way how much is the engine and transmission maintenance over 8 years on an ICE? On an EV it's likely zero.

Personally I've never kept a car for 8 years.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Michael Schott said:


> 8 years is the warranty not the expiration of the batteries. By the way how much is the engine and transmission maintenance over 8 years on an ICE? On an EV it's likely zero.


A lot less then $10K. Kept my 2004 330Ci ZHP convert for 10 years. $1200 out of pocket not counting brakes & tires.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> 8 years is the warranty not the expiration of the batteries. By the way how much is the engine and transmission maintenance over 8 years on an ICE? On an EV it***8217;s likely zero.
> 
> Personally I***8217;ve never kept a car for 8 years.


Great question. It probably depends on mileage.

E.g. my E39 5MT [email protected] years and 100k miles had OFHG and VCG replaced.

That car now has 190k+ miles and almost 18 years old, had clutch [email protected], plus VANOS rebuild, plus PCV valves.

Those are all the engine + transmission work needed on that 5MT 3.0L N/A M54.

On my current F30, my expectation is $0 engine and transmission maintenance in 8 years and 80k miles. My plan is not to keep beyond 100k, hence the ZF 8AT fluid service will only be done around 100k if the car is still in my garage.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bear-avhistory said:


> A lot less then $10K. Kept my 2004 330Ci ZHP convert for 10 years. $1200 out of pocket not counting brakes & tires.


EV's are easier on brakes by the way, at least Tesla's. But you are ignoring the massive fuel savings. Wasn't your point in this topic that replacement battery packs are $10k? That's a potential operating cost and fuel and maintenance are as well and these costs for EV's are far less than for ICE's.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Michael Schott said:


> EV***8217;s are easier on brakes by the way, at least Tesla***8217;s. But you are ignoring the massive fuel savings. Wasn***8217;t your point in this topic that replacement battery packs are $10k? That***8217;s a potential operating cost and fuel and maintenance are as well and these costs for EV***8217;s are far less than for ICE***8217;s.


I would rather pay for gas at $3.10 a gallon over 10 years about $7K then $10K in a lump sum to buy a battery.


----------



## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

Wgosma said:


> Interesting info, thanks.
> 
> Can you expand on your comment about NOT wanting to push the Tesla in same manner as the BMW?
> 
> ...


First off. The 340 just feels lighter and ready to go. With the engine, its transmission, and sound, you just want to step on it. The Tesla can move but my guess is that with the regen braking I think I get lulled into going slower. I am not really sure why. It may be just me.

+'s. Auto pilot and no gas. And the fact that the car does not feel like a compromise (I.e. Volt or Leaf) and I owned a Volt. I do want to say that I am an electric car junkie and I am completely set up for it - charger and solar. That being said if the Tesla were not an option, the 340 or the new upcoming M340 would be the ICE care for me.

-'s. I have not found any fit and finish issues with the car that you may have read about. I do not like the phone as your key as you need to have the phone close to the sensor or the car does not unlock. Quite a few times I have had to pull out my phone from my pocket so the sensor would pick I it up. Also, the door handles both in and out are different for the standard and takes some getting used to, especially for your passengers. Finally, ''tis very difficult to go to the car wash if that is your thing.

One interesting note from Bfest and the Tesla forums. The Bfest forums seem to have a lot more performance enthusiasts while the Model 3 group seems to be focused on what type of ceramic coat to get along with when "Do I get my car"posts. I suppose this is to be expected since there are only about 44k of vins and probably only 30k cars, if that delivered

Sent from my iPad using


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

Even though the battery warranty is 8 years, that does not mean the battery will die at that time so continuously saying at 8 years a person will pay 10k is not accurate. Also whatever the cost of batteries are today does not mean they will remain the same price 8 years from now. I would expect like any other technology the cost would drop. I guess time will tell.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

namelessman said:


> An appropriate comparison should be EV battery to ICE fuel tank.


No. The battery is an integral part of the powertrain; a fuel tank isn't.

I'm on my third hybrid. Two Toyota Prius that were bought purely to be commuting appliances, and my 330e. Never had a battery concern. I had one Prius for just over 7 years, and the other for right at 5. The battery is no more likely to just "die" than your ICE. Both "can" happen, but warranties are based on a probabilistic model that they won't. In all likelihood, that 8 year warranty includes a probabilistic consideration at 150% of the warranty, i.e., 12 years.

If the 330e had been available as a pure EV, I'd have one. I view the plug-in hybrid systems as a bridge to that future. And for much of the world, the range anxiety reflected on a BMW enthusiast board just doesn't apply. I get that people want to go from Sacramento to San Diego without having to stop to recharge their car, but much of the world market for Tesla and other EVs exists on 5-10 mile commutes, and they fly or take the train for those really long drives.

And, I am a "BMW guy". I just don't need Tesla to fail for my BMWs to be a success.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> No. *The battery is an integral part of the powertrain; a fuel tank isn't*.
> 
> I'm on my third hybrid. Two Toyota Prius that were bought purely to be commuting appliances, and my 330e. Never had a battery concern. I had one Prius for just over 7 years, and the other for right at 5. The battery is no more likely to just "die" than your ICE. Both "can" happen, but warranties are based on a probabilistic model that they won't. In all likelihood, that 8 year warranty includes a probabilistic consideration at 150% of the warranty, i.e., 12 years.
> 
> ...


Are Prius and 330e hybrid versus EV? Those, and their respective batteries, are very different from EV's.

How is a battery of a EV an integral part of powertrain?

"In a motor vehicle, the term *powertrain* or powerplant describes the main components that generate power and deliver it to the road surface, water, or air. This includes the engine, transmission, drive shafts, differentials, and the final drive (drive wheels, continuous track as in military tanks or caterpillar tractors, propeller, etc.)."


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## Gamico (May 24, 2017)

sr5959 said:


> Thank you, this is great info! Would very much like to hear more along these lines.
> 
> I think the fuel cost saving means really the Model 3 should be compared to a much cheaper car than the 340, maybe a low-spec 330?
> 
> ...


Regarding comparing to the lower 3 series due to fuel costs. You have a point, but I think short range version is closer to the 330 or maybe 320.

As for the rear seat heaters, I assume that the electrical work was already there, they just needed to activate it. It may be that Tesla is unveiling these features in order to create continued excitement (or press - much like an Iphone) over the life of the car. They released auto hi-beams and the summon feature (back out and in of your garage/parking space) recently. I am pretty sure that these features were already there.

As for the pre-heating/cooling features, you can activate via your phone. I have only used the cooling feature and the car cools down within 5 to 10 minutes. The only issue is that you need to wait until the car "wakes up" when you summon this feature on your phone. This take sometimes up to a minute. I know that may not be not long, but when you are walking out the door or focused on other things this seems like a long time. I think the "wake up" issue is to conserve battery range.

Note - regarding pre-cooling, Telsa is rolling out an update that will automatically cool the car when it hits 104 degrees (I think that this the temp) for up to 12 hours in order to protect kids and dogs.

That being said, prior to the announcement of the Performance model and after an OTA update, there was talk that Telsa had "slowed down" the cars. This was/is a big concern that Telsa can alter performance or other features etc - much like the Iphone battery issue. I did not feel a change in performance, but it may be a concern. If you compare the Tesla's updates to Iphone updates, then I am sure many can find various concerns/issues. However, I think that many cars will have or offer OTA updates in the near future.

There is a discussion above about poor braking performance. Consumer Reports brought this issue up about a month ago and Telsa corrected it via an OTA update the next week per confirmation by Consumer Reports. I have not seen a difference in braking.


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## tarekelsakka (Apr 29, 2013)

No one here drives a Tesla because electricity is expensive enough as it is, but I have always been fascinated by the idea and the looks. I must say that the Model 3's interior and dashboard are really ugly with that huge tablet-like head unit sticking out. I'd have preferred to see a more seamless integration although I am sure the screen itself does wonders.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bear-avhistory said:


> I would rather pay for gas at $3.10 a gallon over 10 years about $7K then $10K in a lump sum to buy a battery.


$7K is far too low as is $3.10/gallon. Assuming the average annual mileage of 12,000 which is statistically true and assume 27 mpg, that's 444 gallons/year. At $3.25/gallon that's $1444.00/year or $11,555.00 over 8 years. Lets also (very conservatively) estimate other drivetrain costs like oil changes (at least 9, some covered by BMW), filters, coolant, spark plugs, etc at $1200.00 the total cost is $12,755.00.

Also, as said above, 8 years is the warranty on the battery. It's a huge assumption that it will need to be replaced at that time.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> $7K is far too low as is $3.10/gallon. Assuming the average annual mileage of 12,000 which is statistically true and assume 27 mpg, that's 444 gallons/year. At $3.25/gallon that's $1444.00/year or $11,555.00 over 8 years. Lets also (very conservatively) estimate other drivetrain costs like oil changes (at least 9, some covered by BMW), filters, coolant, spark plugs, etc at $1200.00 the total cost is $12,755.00.
> 
> Also, as said above, 8 years is the warranty on the battery. It's a huge assumption that it will need to be replaced at that time.


bear's point is that electricity is not $0 cost, as $30-40/month will be $4000 in 8 years, hence the cost savings of $11k - $4k = $7k.

In CA the electric bills can be even higher than $30-40/month.

On the subject of 8-year warranty, previous posts of this thread discussed that Tesla limits charging capability when the SOC counters exceed certain threshold.

Musk did say Tesla's expectation is one full charge per week, or 400 charges in 8 years, for, say, 100k to 120k miles.

So Tesla's comfort zone is 8 years/100k to 120k miles, should customers take notice, esp. when battery degradation accelerates with age?


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

namelessman said:


> bear's point is that electricity is not $0 cost, as $30-40/month will be $4000 in 8 years, hence the cost savings of $11k - $4k = $7k.
> 
> In CA the electric bills can be even higher than $30-40/month.
> 
> ...


Regarding your statement about 1 full charge per week. If you go to the Tesla forums and ask current owners or go to a Tesla showroom they will tell you to keep the battery between 20 to 90 percent charge and to only go 100% (full charge) for long trips. Current owners and Tesla employees recommend to charge to 90% the night before a long road trip and then the additional 10% the morning you are to leave. Basically someone who owns a Tesla would rarely make a full charge once a week.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Michael Schott said:


> $7K is far too low as is $3.10/gallon. Assuming the average annual mileage of 12,000 which is statistically true and assume 27 mpg, that's 444 gallons/year. At $3.25/gallon that's $1444.00/year or $11,555.00 over 8 years. Lets also (very conservatively) estimate other drivetrain costs like oil changes (at least 9, some covered by BMW), filters, coolant, spark plugs, etc at $1200.00 the total cost is $12,755.00.
> 
> Also, as said above, 8 years is the warranty on the battery. It's a huge assumption that it will need to be replaced at that time.


Excuse me but I paid $3.10 a gallon at Shell for 93 three days ago. Not sure what the average mileage of of a Tesla is so I used my current 440.

That said using your numbers would you rather pay $10K in a lump sum right now or 12,755 over 8 years?

In March of this year, there was a minor uproar over Tesla Roadster batteries being "bricked," a way of saying that the battery pack was fully depleted and needed to be entirely replaced.

The controversial incident revealed that Tesla was exacting a price of $40,000 to replace the 53-kWh hour pack in the Roadster. That's why some EV market observers were surprised when George Blankenship, Tesla vice president of worldwide sales and ownership experience, announced last week that the company will replace the larger 85-kWh pack on the Model S for just $12,000.

Before taking out your calculator to crunch Tesla's apparent dollar-per-kilowatt-hour price of its batteries-or jumping to the conclusion that Tesla has unlocked the great secret of EV battery affordability-it's critical to consider a few points. The very attractive replacement cost for the largest pack-and equally compelling prices of $10,000 and $8,000 respectively for the 60-kWh and 40-kWh packs-much be purchased within 90 days of taking ownership, but only will be honored "after the end of the eighth year" of ownership, according to Blankenship.

In other words, folks taking ownership, and paying for the replacement coverage now, will not be eligible for the replacement until the end of 2020. So Tesla's calculation to some degree represents an assessment of where battery prices will be in the next decade-not where they are right now.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bear-avhistory said:


> Excuse me but I paid $3.10 a gallon at Shell for 93 three days ago. Not sure what the average mileage of of a Tesla is so I used my current 440.
> 
> That said using your numbers would you rather pay $10K in a lump sum right now or 12,755 over 8 years?
> 
> ...


What you pay in NC has no bearing on the average price of premium fuel in the US when considering typical ownership costs. As of today the average cost for premium gas in the US is $3.396. Of course we can't forecast fuel prices over the next 8 years.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

My last 3 tanks of 93 (91 is not available in MI for the most part) were $3.519, $3.399 and $3.299.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> What you pay in NC has no bearing on the average price of premium fuel in the US when considering typical ownership costs. As of today the average cost for premium gas in the US is $3.396. Of course we can't forecast fuel prices over the next 8 years.
> 
> https://gasprices.aaa.com/
> 
> My last 3 tanks of 93 (91 is not available in MI for the most part) were $3.519, $3.399 and $3.299.


Let's say $3.50 for AKI 91 around here.

15000 [email protected] is 500 gallons(e.g. N20/N26), or $1750.

The PG&E EV rate plan off peak rate is $0.12/kWh, however peak/partial-peak rates are quite [email protected]$0.25-$0.47/kWh with those EV rate plans, so let's say average is $0.25/kWh.

Model S kWh/mile is around 0.333, so 15000 miles need 4995kWh, or $1249.

So the cost savings is around $500 a [email protected] miles.

If one insists to use the lowest $0.12/kWh cost, then the savings will be around $1000/year.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Michael Schott said:


> What you pay in NC has no bearing on the average price of premium fuel in the US when considering typical ownership costs. As of today the average cost for premium gas in the US is $3.396. Of course we can't forecast fuel prices over the next 8 years.
> 
> https://gasprices.aaa.com/
> 
> My last 3 tanks of 93 (91 is not available in MI for the most part) were $3.519, $3.399 and $3.299.


Looks like the price is coming down.

BTW you did not answer what is better X $ over an 8 year period or a $10K lump sum paid in advance to a company that might not be here in 8 years?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> What you pay in NC has no bearing on the average price of premium fuel in the US when considering typical ownership costs.


What is your local cost per kWh of electricity?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> In other words, folks taking ownership, and paying for the replacement coverage now, will not be eligible for the replacement until the end of 2020. So Tesla's calculation to some degree represents an assessment of where battery prices will be in the next decade-not where they are right now.


This sounds like another way Tesla is extracting interest-free loans from customers. 

An interesting point of $40k replacement cost of a bricked battery is that, while worn battery can be re-manufactured, a bricked one may mean the whole unit is totally done, and there is no core credit(hence the big price difference).


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bear-avhistory said:


> Looks like the price is coming down.
> 
> BTW you did not answer what is better X $ over an 8 year period or a $10K lump sum paid in advance to a company that might not be here in 8 years?


Because it's only an assumption that the batteries need to be replaced at 8 years. And in doing a bit of research, it is evident that they will not. Not even close.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.re...y_replacement_cost_discussion/#ampf=undefined


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

bear-avhistory said:


> BTW you did not answer what is better X $ over an 8 year period or a $10K lump sum paid in advance to a company that might not be here in *8 months*?


Fixed that for you.

You realize that the argument you're engaged in is like trying to convince a Flat Earther that the globe is round, or trying to convince ard that the Apollo "landings" didn't take place in a building at Area 51, right? The more logic you present, the more the other guy doubles down and guzzles his Musk-flavored Kool-Aid.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Because it's only an assumption that the batteries need to be replaced at 8 years. And in doing a bit of research, it is evident that they will not. Not even close.
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.re...y_replacement_cost_discussion/#ampf=undefined


The posted thread has some interesting info.

E.g. lithium ion battery life ends at 70%.

Festers can observe what 70% EOL means in their daily smart phone usages.  The phone is still usable, but not too useful.

E.g. [email protected]% brand new lasts 6 hours, while [email protected]%, it lasts 4 hours.

Given some Telsa owners said their capacity is reduced by 15% by 40k miles, these folks can likely be down to 70% at 80k-100k miles, around 8-year mark if 10k-12k/year?


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Given some Telsa owners said their capacity is reduced by 15% by 40k miles, these folks can likely be down to 70% at 80k-100k miles, around 8-year mark if 10k-12k/year?


Actually, apparently no. Not unexpectedly, the degradation is non-linear; most loss is early then a much slower average rate of decay over the life of the battery.

The best description I've seen: https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/

The dataset is global, but originated in the Netherlands. Assuming the slope remains linear, the author estimates 80% capacity remaining at 510,000 miles. As with any real life experience, there will be outliers 1-2 standard deviations from that mean performance (in both directions).


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The posted thread has some interesting info.
> 
> E.g. lithium ion battery life ends at 70%.
> 
> ...


You always present worse case scenario. Most people expect 90% capacity at well over 100,000 Miles.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> You always present worse case scenario. Most people expect 90% capacity at well over 100,000 Miles.


For one, anyone interested in these Model S should ask for [email protected] charge and/or SOC counters to gauge the health of the batteries.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Actually, apparently no. Not unexpectedly, the degradation is non-linear; most loss is early then a much slower average rate of decay over the life of the battery.
> 
> The best description I've seen: https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/
> 
> The dataset is global, but originated in the Netherlands. Assuming the slope remains linear, the author estimates 80% capacity remaining at 510,000 miles. As with any real life experience, there will be outliers 1-2 standard deviations from that mean performance (in both directions).


The context of the data sets is important, e.g. EV lithium ion batteries work best for dense urban commutes with daily recharges between 40-80% capacities, just like smart phones and laptops and tablets.

For CA, and esp. NorCal/Fremont being the birthplace of these Tesla's, it would be interesting to see relevant data in this context(e.g. 1000-mile road trips, 15k annual mileage, frequent supercharging, hot/cold extremes through micro climates, 5000-ft+ elevation changes). Those are the data sets, preferably across 10k 's of cars, that will paint a complete pic of what these batteries can sustain in the wild wild west.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

namelessman said:


> The context of the data sets is important, e.g. EV lithium ion batteries work best for dense urban commutes with daily recharges between 40-80% capacities, just like smart phones and laptops and tablets.
> 
> For CA, and esp. NorCal/Fremont being the birthplace of these Tesla's, it would be interesting to see relevant data in this context(e.g. 1000-mile road trips, 15k annual mileage, frequent supercharging, hot/cold extremes through micro climates, 5000-ft+ elevation changes). Those are the data sets, preferably across 10k 's of cars, that will paint a complete pic of what these batteries can sustain in the wild wild west.


Which just reinforces what most of us who own some sort of EV/PHEV, etc., know: The birthplace of Tesla is one of the worst places in the country for an EV. San Francisco, San Diego, LA immediate urban area, fine. Mid-Atlantic DC-Philly-New York, fine. They are best suited for dense urban/suburban areas, where they perform extremely well.

If you routinely make 1000 mile road trips and only want one vehicle, it isn't an EV and isn't likely to be an EV anytime soon. If you thought it was, you've chosen the wrong tool for your project. And I will fault Tesla for at least implying you can drive them anytime and anywhere and marketing the supercharger network to enable that.

And I have no reason to believe the general trend in that dataset will change. Yes, the slope may be 1.5-2.0% instead of around 1%, but there's no reason to believe it will be 5-10%.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Which just reinforces what most of us who own some sort of EV/PHEV, etc., know: The birthplace of Tesla is one of the worst places in the country for an EV. San Francisco, San Diego, LA immediate urban area, fine. Mid-Atlantic DC-Philly-New York, fine. They are best suited for dense urban/suburban areas, where they perform extremely well.
> 
> If you routinely make 1000 mile road trips and only want one vehicle, it isn't an EV and isn't likely to be an EV anytime soon. If you thought it was, you've chosen the wrong tool for your project. And I will fault Tesla for at least implying you can drive them anytime and anywhere and marketing the supercharger network to enable that.
> 
> And I have no reason to believe the general trend in that dataset will change. Yes, the slope may be 1.5-2.0% instead of around 1%, but there's no reason to believe it will be 5-10%.


My thinking is in the context of the quoted data sets, the 1-2% sounds reasonable.

In the land of solo-driver/single-car household, 1000-mile road trips, 300-500 weekly commutes + weekend excursions, sparse charging infrastructure(with lots of EVs popping up), the 1-2% or even 5-10% is not easy to sustain.

For one, CA politicians do buy into the marketing and have mandated 2.4m EV in CA in the near future. Oh well ....


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Which just reinforces what most of us who own some sort of EV/PHEV, etc., know: The birthplace of Tesla is one of the worst places in the country for an EV. San Francisco, San Diego, LA immediate urban area, fine. Mid-Atlantic DC-Philly-New York, fine. They are best suited for dense urban/suburban areas, where they perform extremely well.
> 
> If you routinely make 1000 mile road trips and only want one vehicle, it isn't an EV and isn't likely to be an EV anytime soon. If you thought it was, you've chosen the wrong tool for your project. And I will fault Tesla for at least implying you can drive them anytime and anywhere and marketing the supercharger network to enable that.
> 
> And I have no reason to believe the general trend in that dataset will change. Yes, the slope may be 1.5-2.0% instead of around 1%, but there's no reason to believe it will be 5-10%.


This is changing. The Supercharger network is expanding. I have a friend who regularly drives from Detroit to South Carolina with no charging issues.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Michael Schott said:


> This is changing. The Supercharger network is expanding. I have a friend who regularly drives from Detroit to South Carolina with no charging issues.
> 
> But it's definitely more convenient taking a long trip in an ICE. Long range EV's require additional planning.


Here's a charging issue: How long does it take to recharge?

Too long....to reach 100%

Sooo recharges are more frequent, and range anxiety comes sooner, than most prospective buyers know. And recharge time's still waaay longer than for liquid fuel.

Bit of a backup at the Supercharger? *Now* how long's your recharge time?


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Here's a charging issue: How long does it take to recharge?
> 
> Too long....to reach 100%
> 
> ...


On a trip like I described, my friend says about 30-40 minutes at the Supercharger station he uses. Yes longer than gasoline but no one is saying there are no drawbacks to EV's. It's a minor issue. As I said, you have to plan.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bear-avhistory said:


> You claiming Tesla is not collecting $10K up front only redeemable after 8 years for battery replacement?


Are you claiming Tesla is sticking a gun in your back and forcing you to buy the batteries upfront? There's no talk of this on any Tesla forum I've seen.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Are you claiming Tesla is sticking a gun in your back and forcing you to buy the batteries upfront? There's no talk of this on any Tesla forum I've seen.


In a couple of years, the used car market will decide if those 2012 Model S with 80k-100k miles and beyond are worth anything.

Will buyers pay $10k for that car, with [email protected]%-85% capacity, and a replacement cost of $10k-12k? Or is the resale $0?

That resale value past 8 years will answer the original question of this current discussion, namely, is the fuel cost saving real for these Tesla's given the expensive battery replacement cost?

And to be specific, unlike other fester's claim, the Tesla battery is not part of the Tesla powertrain, but rather analogous to the fuel tank of ICE car.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Another point on Tesla EVs(or any EV) is that, govt mandates are what get manufacturers working on EVs, at a time that the EV tech is not fully developed, and the environ/toxic impacts of EVs not fully understood/planned for. The rush is global too(e.g. China, Europe, US), so there is lots of room for unintended consequences in a massive scale, consequences that can be worse than the oil dependence everyone tries to get rid of. Oh well.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> In a couple of years, the used car market will decide if those 2012 Model S with 80k-100k miles and beyond are worth anything.
> 
> Will buyers pay $10k for that car, with [email protected]%-85% capacity, and a replacement cost of $10k-12k? Or is the resale $0?
> 
> ...


But once again you are not being accurate. In the link I provided most project far less battery degradation than that. In one typical case they saw 13% degradation at 110,000 miles. But if you can get a $100,000.00 retail model S for $10K and put $10K into a battery, that's a lot of car for $20K considering the fuel savings. Of course that all depends on Tesla still existing at that time.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Depends on whether parts like suspension and motor need attention at 100K miles or not.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> But once again you are not being accurate. In the link I provided most project far less battery degradation than that. In one typical case they saw 13% degradation at 110,000 miles. But if you can get a $100,000.00 retail model S for $10K and put $10K into a battery, that's a lot of car for $20K considering the fuel savings. Of course that all depends on Tesla still existing at that time.


My reservation of that link is that, the data set is not that big, when that data set grows to 100k+ then it will become meaningful.

Another out-of-box idea is that Tesla(if it still exists) can buy back those 8-year old Model S, refurbish everything, and resale them for, say, $25k with another 8-year battery warranty :thumbup:

That will be a refreshing way to say that Tesla stands behind its products.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> My reservation of that link is that, the data set is not that big, when that data set grows to 100k+ then it will become meaningful.
> 
> Another out-of-box idea is that Tesla(if it still exists) can buy back those 8-year old Model S, refurbish everything, and resale them for, say, $25k with another 8-year battery warranty :thumbup:
> 
> That will be a refreshing way to say that Tesla stands behind its products.


I agree that the sample size is small. All I've read and heard is that Tesla does stand behind their products very strongly.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> Depends on whether parts like suspension and motor need attention at 100K miles or not.


Good points. These Model S are 4600lb+, the suspension probably will need work by 100k miles.

Is there a link to Tesla replacement part number? Those electric motors can be quite expensive to replace.

Another cost factor that can negate fuel cost saving is tires.

Tesla forums have complaints of those 19-inch and 21-inch tires lasting only 10k to 15k miles.

Those 21-inch tires are $1400 tires only! :yikes:

The 19-inch is less, at $800 tires only.

So for 100k miles, the Model S may require extra 6 sets of tires, or $5k to $8k extra costs tires only, or $6k to $10k including road force balance!!!


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

It's already well established that the bigger Teslas are insanely expensive to repair bodywork due to extensive use of aluminum and the limited amount of Tesla approved body shops, but apparently the model 3 is not a cheap fix if you fail to successfully negotiate your way out of a parking spot.
The insurance costs must surely knock you unconscious as well...
Spot the $7,000 damage in this pic....yikes!!


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Can someone tell us what a similar situation on a conventional car would cost to fix...the fender above was changed.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

A coworker reminded me of this incident concerning Tesla suspension parts 2 years ago:

https://dailykanban.com/2016/06/tesla-suspension-breakage-not-crime-coverup/

"This offer, to repair a defective part in exchange for a non-disclosure agreement, is unheard of in the auto industry. More troublingly, it represents a potential assault by Tesla Motors on the right of vehicle owners to report defects to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's complaint database, the auto safety regulators sole means of discovering defects independent of the automakers they regulate."

And it looks like the electric motors are not 0% failure, this link says Tesla techs are familiar "funny noise" that requires a new drive unit between 60k-75k miles. That drive unit(motor) is $10k from ebay.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...-replacing-the-drive-unit-aka-the-funny-noise


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Dio///M said:


> It's already well established that the bigger Teslas are insanely expensive to repair bodywork due to extensive use of aluminum and the limited amount of Tesla approved body shops, but apparently the model 3 is not a cheap fix if you fail to successfully negotiate your way out of a parking spot.
> The insurance costs must surely knock you unconscious as well...
> Spot the $7,000 damage in this pic....yikes!!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://techcrunch.com/2018/06/28/tesla-opens-model-3-reservations/

So Tesla now allows all US and Canada reservation holders to configure their cars, so the moment of truth is near! 

Some friends plan to put in a reservation this week and see if they can immediately configure and take delivery soon.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://techcrunch.com/2018/06/28/tesla-opens-model-3-reservations/

So Tesla now allows all US and Canada reservation holders to configure their cars, so the moment of truth is near! 

Some friends plan to put in a reservation this week and see if they can immediately configure and take delivery soon.

Most notable is that the performance variant has a price drop froom $78k to $64k.


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## jl71 (Jun 1, 2018)

181562 said:


> You can find a charging station in as many locations as you can a gas station?


depends on the area. We have some charging stations but few and far between.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So Tesla did hit 5000 Model 3 the last week of June, as the 5000th car passed QA at 5am PST(a few hours after the midnight deadline).


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> So Tesla did hit 5000 Model 3 the last week of June, as the 5000th car passed QA at 5am PST(a few hours after the midnight deadline).


Right outta the movie


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

namelessman said:


> So Tesla did hit 5000 Model 3 the last week of June, as the 5000th car passed QA at 5am PST(a few hours after the midnight deadline).


Wow all that slave driving (I know they were working folks ridiculously overtime), extreme measures, and they still weren't able to make it? I was expecting them to hit 5k by the end of the week, but not sustainbly.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

FaRKle! said:


> Wow all that slave driving (I know they were working folks ridiculously overtime), extreme measures, and they still weren't able to make it? I was expecting them to hit 5k by the end of the week, but not sustainbly.


Dude, dude, dude, dude....*Gung Ho!*


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.

My thoughts are captured here;

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


excellent review Voip very insightful.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


Thanks for sharing the review.:thumbup:

What is the lead time for the dual motor delivery, 3-4 months?

So how will this evolve, Model 3 killing 3-series/C-class/A4, or Tesla running out of money?

This is truly an intriguing time. :0)


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


thanks for the review. how does the car handle/feel on bad pavement? is it better than the f30 at soaking up bumps?


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


Good review, and I noticed this comment:
*My biggest gripe with the Tesla after our trip was the key card. It is horrible. I realize I wouldn't normally have to interact with the car this way, but how horrible for anyone who will let others drive their car regularly. I really hope Tesla contemplates adding a better method of access that doesn't rely on a smart phone.*

A couple of weeks ago I went over to chat with a Model 3 owner - I wanted a peek inside his car, he was plugged into a public charger and leaning against his car absorbed with his iPhone. He said he locked his card key inside the car and could not open it, he was trying to reload the Tesla app. that he's dumped off his phone the prior day. I went and grabbed lunch, when I came out 45 minutes later - ditto; the guy was still feverislhy working his smartphone, car was still locked up.


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## mr_clueless (Nov 13, 2009)

Wgosma said:


> Good review, and I noticed this comment:
> *My biggest gripe with the Tesla after our trip was the key card. It is horrible. I realize I wouldn't normally have to interact with the car this way, but how horrible for anyone who will let others drive their car regularly. I really hope Tesla contemplates adding a better method of access that doesn't rely on a smart phone.*
> 
> A couple of weeks ago I went over to chat with a Model 3 owner - I wanted a peek inside his car, he was plugged into a public charger and leaning against his car absorbed with his iPhone. He said he locked his card key inside the car and could not open it, he was trying to reload the Tesla app. that he's dumped off his phone the prior day. I went and grabbed lunch, when I came out 45 minutes later - ditto; the guy was still feverislhy working his smartphone, car was still locked up.


Could he not just call Tesla and have them unlock it for him?


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

Well apparently not- maybe guy has more money than brains, plus he was pretty young...may not know how to use phone for voice call

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mr_clueless said:


> thanks for the review. how does the car handle/feel on bad pavement? is it better than the f30 at soaking up bumps?


Yesterday a Model 3 was in front of us going down 5 miles of twisty with at most -9% grade, the Model 3 did wobble a bit around corners like a tall toaster.  The speed was mainly 5-10 miles above posted limits, on narrow but smooth pavement(no potholes), and the Model 3 had good enough road manners.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

mr_clueless said:


> thanks for the review. how does the car handle/feel on bad pavement? is it better than the f30 at soaking up bumps?


The suspension on the F30 soaks up bumps just a little better, but the handling on the Model 3 with the very low CG and the multi-link setup is far superior in my opinion to the BMW.

The Tesla does have just a touch more rebound over concrete aprons but I didn't find it objectionable.

The steering on the BMW is numb and lifeless compared to the steering on the Tesla which is very sharp and offers a bit more feedback.

Whoever dialed in the suspension on the new Tesla really nailed it.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Thanks for sharing the review.:thumbup:
> 
> What is the lead time for the dual motor delivery, 3-4 months?
> 
> ...


I ordered on March 31st 2016 and am told that my car should be delivered between September and November of this year.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Yesterday a Model 3 was in front of us going down 5 miles of twisty with at most -9% grade, the Model 3 did wobble a bit around corners like a tall toaster.  The speed was mainly 5-10 miles above posted limits, on narrow but smooth pavement(no potholes), and the Model 3 had good enough road manners.


Yeah well, I might be in the land o'Tesla. But! Seeing Mod 3 *everywhere....day & night.*


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


A Porsche. Danged if it don't resemble like you said, VOIP! Until I saw that, hadn't occurred.

So. *Turo.* You rented someone's personal vehicle? And they're kinda the Uber of car rentals?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> A Porsche. Danged if it don't resemble like you said, VOIP! Until I saw that, hadn't occurred.
> 
> So. *Turo.* You rented someone's personal vehicle? And they're kinda the Uber of car rentals?


Yeah more or less that is exactly what it is. Private owners who want to rent out their personal vehicles for a day, week ,month.


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## Lennysx5 (Dec 16, 2017)

voip-ninja said:


> Yeah more or less that is exactly what it is. Private owners who want to rent out their personal vehicles for a day, week ,month.


And where do you find these ppl?

Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Lennysx5 said:


> And where do you find these ppl?
> 
> Sent from my iPad using Bimmerfest mobile app


You install the Turo app, set up an account and then search for cars available to rent in your area. You can search by make so finding a Tesla model 3 is surprisingly easy.

Rental for me was $125 for one day because the owner had some issues 1st time he tried to rent to me (the car was in the shop)... normally a model 3 rents for more like $150-$180 a day with a two day minimum.

Still a hell of a lot cheaper than buying a Tesla having never driven it and find out you hate it.


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


Excellent review @voip-ninja. I read through the entire thread and you make very objective points. I will definitely try the Turo rental, because I am very curious to check out what all the hype is about on model 3.

Sidenote: that canuk guy seems like a royal pain in the butt, rides on his high horse criticizing the very things he so adamantly preaches about. Hypocrite of the tallest order.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

I agree excellent review by voip...I’m interested in the Model 3 but it sounds like it has some really annoying quirks like the phone entry system keycard thingy


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Yeah more or less that is exactly what it is. Private owners who want to rent out their personal vehicles for a day, week ,month.


Turo. Seeing Model 3 for about $300/day in Philly.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Turo. Seeing Model 3 for about $300/day in Philly.


That will go down as more owners compete with each other.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

vw2bmw said:


> Excellent review @voip-ninja. I read through the entire thread and you make very objective points. I will definitely try the Turo rental, because I am very curious to check out what all the hype is about on model 3.


Shows all the symptoms of a fad....poppin' up all over....saw the neighbor to some acres I own had a new Mod 3 in his driveway; wasn't there last week....


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Shows all the symptoms of a fad....poppin' up all over....saw the neighbor to some acres I own had a new Mod 3 in his driveway; wasn't there last week....


Drive one for an hour and tell me if you still think it's a fad. When the $35k-40k versions become available next year it's going to take a giant bite out of the entire sedan segment IMO.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Drive one for an hour and tell me if you still think it's a fad. When the $35k-40k versions become available next year it's going to take a giant bite out of the entire sedan segment IMO.


Then, Musk was right! That big tent says something....go long....


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I will also save about $50-80 a month not buying fuel.... but some of that will get eaten up with higher insurance premiums.


So your insurance company does cover Tesla?

Many do not provide online quotes for Tesla, mine requires to call in and the quotes won't be returned for a day or two.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> That's speculation... as is whether in a year or two premium gasoline will be $2.50 a gallon or $4.00 a gallon.
> 
> Tesla does cost a bit more to fix than other segment cars but I don't know that it's been enough of a difference to substantially affect premiums.


Post#1253 did quote one data point of a simple fender bender of Tesla costing $7000, versus maybe $1k+ max for a F30(e.g.)., so it is a tad above "a bit more ...." in this case. 

Simple fender bender(including car being stationary at parking lot) is somewhat a statistics thing in my mind, meaning the more cars the higher the number of incidents. Maybe the cost of repair also will drop below $7000 too.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

One has to wonder if Tesla has pulled all stops to reach 5k weekly production, could this possibly negatively impact quality control/fit and finish or even safety systems....I'm not an accountant but if they're just managing to profit at this production rate, all it would take is one major recall ro rectify a production flaw and this would cause havoc at their bottom line.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> He missed the 5K number by a couple of hours.
> 
> There is also nothing that indicates 5K is the # needed to reach profitability....


Except that they actually said they said they must reach 5k/wk for the model 3 to reach profitability (not lose money on them, thus reducing profits from other sales).

And once again, I'll stress that they were operating at a burst rate, not a normal/sustained rate. I personally know of cases where they would have people work their normal shift at other locations, then fly them into SJC so they could work a night shift in Fremont. That's not sustainable.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

voip-ninja said:


> I rented a Model 3 for a day and now I am getting one to replace my 340i when the lease is up in a couple of months (if necessary will extend the lease a bit). Completed my reservation $2500 commitment to a dual motor Wednesday night when the flood gates opened.
> 
> My thoughts are captured here;
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...-rental-this-bmw-driver-is-buying-one.118369/


Best of luck to you. I will be most likely following in your footsteps 2.5 years from now when my 340 goes back to BMW.
This thread is just full of hate for Tesla. Don't understand why. I want this company to succeed.
Looking forward to reading more from you on the Tesla forum. :thumbup:


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

No one is saying that Tesla is not disruptive/innovative or making a very desirable product. The point being made is that the way the company is fundamentally being run is not sustainable. Their production methods are too inefficient when compared to established car makers and can only keep on burning cash at the current rate for a limited amount of more time before scores of large investors cut back. In the very near future, the competition is going to be building up at a rapid pace and Tesla might not have enough time to iron out its inefficiencies.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FaRKle! said:


> Except that they actually said they said they must reach 5k/wk for the model 3 to reach profitability (not lose money on them, thus reducing profits from other sales).
> 
> And once again, I'll stress that they were operating at a burst rate, not a normal/sustained rate. I personally know of cases where they would have people work their normal shift at other locations, then fly them into SJC so they could work a night shift in Fremont. That's not sustainable.


Do you have any source/quote where Tesla or Musk have said that? I don't know of one, I just know that 5,000 Model 3 cars a week was the # that Musk has repeatedly said they need to hit before introducing some additional production changes that will further increase how many units they can crank out.

Tesla has a lot of turnover at the production plant and have been drastically increasing their human workforce after realizing robots can't get them there.

Them being in SoCal certainly isn't helping either.

However, I am cautiously optimistic about getting my first American made car in decades hopefully in the next 3-4 months.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> No one is saying that Tesla is not disruptive/innovative or making a very desirable product. The point being made is that the way the company is fundamentally being run is not sustainable. Their production methods are too inefficient when compared to established car makers and can only keep on burning cash at the current rate for a limited amount of more time before scores of large investors cut back. In the very near future, the competition is going to be building up at a rapid pace and Tesla might not have enough time to iron out its inefficiencies.
> 
> Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


If that's what you believe you should short the stock, you will make a killing!

I don't know of anything they are doing that is "unsustainable" so maybe you could be more specific. There was a recent negative article claiming they were scrapping more materials out of their Gigafactory than is used in all of their actual battery production. Musk has refuted this so only time will tell.

Most of the production of the Model 3 is similar to other cars in the same segment. The biggest difference is the battery pack which they seem to have a handle on as most of the bottleneck now seems to be in the Fremont plant.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Considering that Musk would be liable in a massive lawsuit from his investors if he made a false statement about it I imagine that to some extent it is legitimate.


Remember: This is Kalifornia.

If Musk names the man a-fore litigation, especially involving a criminal investigation, is complete, he risks damaging the man's rep w/o having his claim confirmed by a court decision. In that situation, God help Musk if something doesn't go his way! Tesla will pay out big time; have lasting damage to market image.

So. No loose lips, please.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

voip-ninja said:


> Do you have any source/quote where Tesla or Musk have said that? I don't know of one, I just know that 5,000 Model 3 cars a week was the # that Musk has repeatedly said they need to hit before introducing some additional production changes that will further increase how many units they can crank out.
> 
> Tesla has a lot of turnover at the production plant and have been drastically increasing their human workforce after realizing robots can't get them there.
> 
> ...


Turnover, yeah. Good friend was regional sales manager for industrial robotics company- he called on Tesla and got to know a few engineers, none of whom were shy about expressing their dissatisfaction with the work environment.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

For about a month now I usually see at least one Model 3 every day on the roads here in Seattle. Today I saw about 5 while out at lunch!

Also the first few I saw looked very plain, but the ones I'm seeing now are looking much more sporty, have they tweaked the design a bit?


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> Do you have any source/quote where Tesla or Musk have said that? I don't know of one, I just know that 5,000 Model 3 cars a week was the # that Musk has repeatedly said they need to hit before introducing some additional production changes that will further increase how many units they can crank out.


"Tesla has told investors it must produce at least 5,000 Model 3s per week for the model line to achieve profitability."

"Tesla, which has been bleeding massive amounts of cash, has previously said that it wouldn't generate profits until it starts to make 5,000 Model 3s per week on a consistent basis.

"But now Tesla is trying to bring the Model 3 to 5,000 units per week by the end of this quarter and if they achieve it, Tesla could start selling the vehicle with a positive gross margin and make the vehicle program profitable by Q3."



voip-ninja said:


> I don't know of anything they are doing that is "unsustainable" so maybe you could be more specific.


You don't consider having workers go 14-20hrs a day unsustainable? Or flying in people from hundreds of miles away (including other states) for a second shift and then flying them home for their regular shift in the same day unsustainable? Wow.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FaRKle! said:


> "Tesla has told investors it must produce at least 5,000 Model 3s per week for the model line to achieve profitability."
> 
> "Tesla, which has been bleeding massive amounts of cash, has previously said that it wouldn't generate profits until it starts to make 5,000 Model 3s per week on a consistent basis.
> 
> ...


Thanks for those articles I will look at them.

That kind of work schedule is not sustainable long term but I have seen zero evidence that this is Tesla's long term plan. They have already said they are adding production staff.

The job market is very hot right now, if people feel they are being overworked they should leave.

Tesla is probably regretting putting their factory in California.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> For about a month now I usually see at least one Model 3 every day on the roads here in Seattle. Today I saw about 5 while out at lunch!
> 
> Also the first few I saw looked very plain, but the ones I'm seeing now are looking much more sporty, have they tweaked the design a bit?


Nothing has changed although you can now order it with 20 inch rims.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Wgosma said:


> Turnover, yeah. Good friend was regional sales manager for industrial robotics company- he called on Tesla and got to know a few engineers, none of whom were shy about expressing their dissatisfaction with the work environment.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


If it sucks that bad they should quit.


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## tomg113 (Jan 14, 2017)

voip-ninja said:


> I will also save about $50-80 a month not buying fuel.... but some of that will get eaten up with higher insurance premiums.


Any idea, or estimate, of how much the electricity to recharge the battery will cost per month if the car was driven about 2,200 miles in the month &#8230; mostly highway?
I pay about $0.20 per kWh.


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

tomg113 said:


> Any idea, or estimate, of how much the electricity to recharge the battery will cost per month if the car was driven about 2,200 miles in the month ***8230; mostly highway?
> I pay about $0.20 per kWh.


I think their website has an application where you can enter that info in and it will give you an idea of what you would be looking at. I think it would be .03 to .07 a mile.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

tomg113 said:


> Any idea, or estimate, of how much the electricity to recharge the battery will cost per month if the car was driven about 2,200 miles in the month &#8230; mostly highway?
> I pay about $0.20 per kWh.


The battery holds about 70 useable kw and gets about 300 miles on that.

So let's assume 7 recharges a month, so 490 kWh purchased, about $100/m at your rates.

I have solar and lower rates so my cost will be very low to keep the car charged.


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## tomg113 (Jan 14, 2017)

pkalhan said:


> I think their website has an application where you can enter that info in and it will give you an idea of what you would be looking at.


Thank you, pkalhan.
Well, I went on this site : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-monthly-charge-cost-calculator/
I inputed my info and it used an electricity cost of $0.17 so, I calculated using my cost of $0.20 and I got the results for my monthly average electricity cost to recharge the Tesla.

For "Normal / Moderate" driving, the monthly cost would be $134.33 for electricity.
For "Fast/Aggressive" driving, the monthly cost would be $179.10 for electricity.

Comparing those figures to my monthly cost for fuel, (I have a diesel averaging about 42mpg, 90% highway driving) paying approx. $3.38/gallon, is $179.14
If I drive more conservatively, like 60 - 65mph on the highway, I can get about 50 mpg on my commute. That would be a cost of about $148.72

So, the cost of driving a Tesla Vs. my 328d Xdrive is very similar.


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

tomg113 said:


> Thank you, pkalhan.
> 
> Well, I went on this site : https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-monthly-charge-cost-calculator/
> 
> ...


Yeah for you it looks like it would be similar. I live in PA and my cost is $.13 so it works out for me a bit better. Do you have that peak/off peak set up with your electric company? I know some people have this option.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## tomg113 (Jan 14, 2017)

voip-ninja said:


> The battery holds about 70 useable kw and gets about 300 miles on that.
> 
> So let's assume 7 recharges a month, so 490 kWh purchased, about $100/m at your rates.
> 
> I have solar and lower rates so my cost will be very low to keep the car charged.


Thank you, voip-ninja. I like your cost better than my calculations


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## tomg113 (Jan 14, 2017)

pkalhan said:


> Yeah for you it looks like it would be similar. I live in PA and my cost is $.13 so it works out for me a bit better. Do you have that peak/off peak set up with your electric company? I know some people have this option.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


No, they charge one price for the first small % of electricity used, then a little lower price for all electricity used after that. I just figured the average.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

FaRKle! said:


> You don't consider having workers go 14-20hrs a day unsustainable? Or flying in people from hundreds of miles away (including other states) for a second shift and then flying them home for their regular shift in the same day unsustainable? Wow.


The price of housing'll keep 'em working. But, bit of an issue: Bay Area's at full employment; Tesla needs more workers.

Robotics! The moment is now....looking for a stock to invest in....


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

tomg113 said:


> So, the cost of driving a Tesla Vs. my 328d Xdrive is very similar.


Yeah, well, Tesla's new! And very cool. Suddenly BMW's soooo yesterday.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Yeah, well, Tesla's new! And very cool. Suddenly BMW's soooo yesterday.


Theoretically the Tesla is also much less expensive to maintain if you hang onto it for a while. It needs brake fluid swapped every 2 years, battery coolant every 4 years and other than that just consumables like brake pads, wipers, tires, etc.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Theoretically the Tesla is also much less expensive to maintain if you hang onto it for a while. It needs brake fluid swapped every 2 years, battery coolant every 4 years and other than that just consumables like brake pads, wipers, tires, etc.


What tire size is your Model 3? On Model S forums there are posts saying the 21-inch($350+ each) can wear from 10k to 15k, so including road force on 5-6 extra sets for 100k miles, the extra tire expense can be considerable.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> What tire size is your Model 3? On Model S forums there are posts saying the 21-inch($350+ each) can wear from 10k to 15k, so including road force on 5-6 extra sets for 100k miles, the extra tire expense can be considerable.


My Model 3? I don't own one yet.

It takes a 235/45-18 wheel if you get the base model wheels (which is what I'd do to eventually turn them into winter rims and get something else for use in summer)... you can run whatever tire you want.

And they aren't run flats.

I have not seen any reports yet from owners (and some have over 15K miles on theirs already) about it eating tires. EVs in general will be at least a bit harder on tires since they have pretty much instantaneous application of power.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> What tire size is your Model 3? On Model S forums there are posts saying the 21-inch($350+ each) can wear from 10k to 15k, so including road force on 5-6 extra sets for 100k miles, the extra tire expense can be considerable.


I assume these are summer tires. You would have the same wear on a BMW with the same tires.


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## M40i4me (Jan 16, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Theoretically the Tesla is also much less expensive to maintain if you hang onto it for a while. It needs brake fluid swapped every 2 years, battery coolant every 4 years and other than that just consumables like brake pads, wipers, tires, etc.


Until you get your electric bill each month and the batteries take a dump in 5 years.:dunno:


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

If you count all 3 models there are so many Tesla’s on the road here in Seattle it seems to be one of the most popular makes...that tells me they’re doing well. Not buying one just yet but traded the stock many times always for a profit and I’ll continue to do so. Electric is the future.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

3284me said:


> Until you get your electric bill each month and the batteries take a dump in 5 years.:dunno:


The battery is warrantied for 8 years.


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## Wgosma (Sep 28, 2009)

sr5959 said:


> If you count all 3 models there are so many Tesla's on the road here in Seattle it seems to be one of the most popular makes...that tells me they're doing well. Not buying one just yet but traded the stock many times always for a profit and I'll continue to do so. Electric is the future.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Seattle, leaping ahead of liberal SF: inundated with model 3's, traffic congestion matching The City and no more plastic straws 

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The battery is warrantied for 8 years.


Loss of battery capacity is not covered though:

"The Battery, like all lithium-ion batteries, will experience gradual energy or power loss with time and use. Loss of Battery energy or power over time or due to or resulting from Battery usage, is NOT covered under this Battery Limited Warranty. See your owner documentation for important information on how to maximize the life and capacity of the Battery."


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> I assume these are summer tires. You would have the same wear on a BMW with the same tires.


The continental max summer 21-inch OEM tires on Model S should be 280-240AA rated, so typically 20k-25k on F30?

The heavy Model S can be a factor, Model 3 may have better tire wear than Model S.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The continental max summer 21-inch OEM tires on Model S should be 280-240AA rated, so typically 20k-25k on F30?
> 
> The heavy Model S can be a factor, Model 3 may have better tire wear than Model S.


It's all anecdotal.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> It's all anecdotal.


Most posts on bimmerfest are anecdotal. 

It is interesting though Tesla does not offer A/S tires, which can have better wear than summer only tires.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

If you count all 3 models there are so many Tesla’s on the road here in Seattle it seems to be one of the most popular makes...that tells me they’re doing well. Not buying one just yet but traded the stock many times always for a profit and I’ll continue to do so. Electric is the future.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Most posts on bimmerfest are anecdotal.
> 
> It is interesting though Tesla does not offer A/S tires, which can have better wear than summer only tires.


Anecdotal posts are the norm. My hope is that they are framed in context.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Loss of battery capacity is not covered though:
> 
> "The Battery, like all lithium-ion batteries, will experience gradual energy or power loss with time and use. Loss of Battery energy or power over time or due to or resulting from Battery usage, is NOT covered under this Battery Limited Warranty. See your owner documentation for important information on how to maximize the life and capacity of the Battery."


It almost seems to me that you're intentionally posting misleading information.

Tesla have posted specific guidelines for the longevity of the Model 3 battery stating that it will have at least 70% of its new performance up to 8 years, and in the case of the long range variant, 120,000 miles.

https://electrek.co/2017/12/20/tesla-model-3-warranty-new-battery-capacity-retention-guarantee/

So, your 8 year old, 120,000 mile Model 3 has 75% of its original capacity. You live in northern Minnesota and frequently drive in very low temperatures.

Your battery range is now probably 360 * .75 (degradation) * .7 (temperature) = 189 miles. This might still make it quite useful to someone willing to charge it up at home every night and primarily use it for commuting or shorter duration trips. During the summer months you should still get the full range of 270 miles of range which is the degraded battery range in normal temperatures.

And in 8 years, with the # of these that are expected to be built I would hope that there is an option for an affordable replacement battery, either refurbished or new, with even greater range than the "ancient" 2018 battery that went into the car originally.

It's also worth pointing out that the oldest Model S cars are 6 years old, have over 200,000 miles and in most cases have >90% of their original battery life. The S has an older battery chemistry than what is in the 3 and there is zero indication that the batteries in the 3 will wear out faster than the ones in the S/X.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> It almost seems to me that you're intentionally posting misleading information.
> 
> Tesla have posted specific guidelines for the longevity of the Model 3 battery stating that it will have at least 70% of its new performance up to 8 years, and in the case of the long range variant, 120,000 miles.
> 
> ...


Post#1339 does refer to Model S battery warranty:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-battery-warranty/

There are posts from tesla forum about Tesla permanently reducing Model S charging capabilities when SOC counters exceed certain thresholds, so Model 3 70% guarantee can be achieved by similar OTA "updates". 

Model S having a new battery chemistry is noteworthy, but as your post mentioned, there is zero indication Model 3's battery will wear out faster, or slower, than those in Model S/X.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Post#1339 does refer to Model S battery warranty:
> 
> https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-battery-warranty/
> 
> ...


All electric cars have expensive batteries that will wear out over time. The popular misconception is that they are like the batteries in your cell phone, where after a few hundred charge cycles the battery will start showing real noticeable signs of degradation including less run time capacity, lower peak amperage output (phone shuts off during demanding tasks), etc.

While the chemistry is roughly the same, the batteries used in current generation EVs are dramatically different. Individual cells are designed to be isolated when they fail. The system is liquid cooled, and there are expensive charge management systems, both hardware and software, that are part of the battery module itself.

The battery WILL wear out, just like all batteries eventually do... and you WILL get less range once the vehicle gets old.... but it's not like a cell phone battery that is worthless after a few years and can't get you through the day.

While it's not a direct corollary, internal combustion engines suffer some of these same problems. As ICEs get older they get less efficient, this is due to things like valve timing getting sloppy, sludging of the engine, etc.

In order to get the same range and power in your ICE vehicle when it has 120,000 miles on the clock you need to do expensive maintenance at specific intervals set by the manufacturer, or you need to get a competent mechanic who can do needed maintenance items at appropriate times.

It's expensive. 100,000 mile factory service on my Acura MDX which included a timing belt replacement, new plugs and wires, water pump replacement, tensioner replacement, valve adjustments, etc., came to $2300. Other local dealers wanted $3,000.

An EV will have less range as it gets older but does not require this servicing. If at some point down the road the owner of the EV feels that they would be better served with a new battery they can opt to replace it, which is expensive, but typically not necessary unless the battery completely fails or no longer delivers enough usable range to still be practical for them for regular use.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> All electric cars have expensive batteries that will wear out over time. The popular misconception is that they are like the batteries in your cell phone, where after a few hundred charge cycles the battery will start showing real noticeable signs of degradation including less run time capacity, lower peak amperage output (phone shuts off during demanding tasks), etc.
> 
> While the chemistry is roughly the same, the batteries used in current generation EVs are dramatically different. Individual cells are designed to be isolated when they fail. The system is liquid cooled, and there are expensive charge management systems, both hardware and software, that are part of the battery module itself.
> 
> ...


An interesting point is that, while ICE maintenance is expensive, Tesla's electric motor also may require maintenance, as Model S owners have electric motors swapped out for free, some as low as 10k-30k miles.

So it is left to be seen if Model S(and eventually X and 3) passing 8 years and 100k miles will routinely need electric motor replacement(plus battery replacement) or not.

The equivalent of Tesla battery pack really should be the gas tank, which rarely loses capacity past 8 years and/or 100k miles, and certainly extremely rare to be replaced.

BTW, my N26 car has its gas tank warranted for 15 years and 150k miles by BMW. :thumbup:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> An interesting point is that, while ICE maintenance is expensive, Tesla's electric motor also may require maintenance, as Model S owners have electric motors swapped out for free, some as low as 10k-30k miles.
> 
> So it is left to be seen if Model S(and eventually X and 3) passing 8 years and 100k miles will routinely need electric motor replacement(plus battery replacement) or not.
> 
> ...


BMW and other internal combustion engined cars have been around for 100+ years and the technology is "proven".

However they are high maintenance.

Electric cars in their current iterations have only been around for about 10-15 years and the technology is not "proven" in the sense of cars being around for decades and many hundreds of thousands of miles.

We also don't know what the long term cost of ownership could be, and how that will stack up against internal combustion cars.

However the assertion that because the car has electric motors and a large battery it is inherently more expensive to maintain is not proven at all.

If you add up the cost of all the post-maintenance items that need to be done on the typical BMW going out to the 120,000 or 150,000 or 200,000 mile mark it will run into the many thousands of miles.... and that's just maintenance items, not doing repairs of the things that actually break.

I recently parted ways with a 15 year old Suzuki SUV that we had purchased for Au Pair use. Suzukis are considered fairly reliable.

In the last 2 years of ownership I had to service the following items on the car, some of them I serviced myself, others I had to pay a shop to fix;

The car only had 140,000 miles on it.

1. Front differential/transfer-case failure - $2000.
2. Leaking front steering rack - $800.
3. Worn out hub separating from axle -$300.
4. Plugs, battery, filters, oil changes - $500.
5. ABS pump failure - $900.

All of this on a car that had a best-case used value of $6000 or so. Finally after the last few items I dumped the car, at only 15 years old it had become far too expensive to maintain.


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> I recently parted ways with a 15 year old Suzuki SUV that we had purchased for Au Pair use. Suzukis are considered fairly reliable.
> 
> In the last 2 years of ownership I had to service the following items on the car, some of them I serviced myself, others I had to pay a shop to fix;
> 
> ...


[email protected] "only" getting 15 years out of a car. I'm looking forward to seeing how many Teslas are still on the road after their 15th birthdays. :rofl:

If you paid for a single one of those issues that cost over $1000 on a vehicle you knew was worth $6000, you are insane (or just financially clueless)


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I recently parted ways with a 15 year old Suzuki SUV that we had purchased for Au Pair use. Suzukis are considered fairly reliable.
> 
> In the last 2 years of ownership I had to service the following items on the car, some of them I serviced myself, others I had to pay a shop to fix;
> 
> ...


For this specific case, would item 1-3, and 5 be applicable to Tesla too? And does Tesla also have cabin air filter(not engine air filter) and such?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

JamesWWIII said:


> [email protected] "only" getting 15 years out of a car. I'm looking forward to seeing how many Teslas are still on the road after their 15th birthdays. :rofl:
> 
> If you paid for a single one of those issues that cost over $1000 on a vehicle you knew was worth $6000, you are insane (or just financially clueless)


Yeah way better to offer the car up with a busted transfer case for the $2500 I would have gotten for it in that condition.

Someone is clueless not sure it's me.

I also wasn't the original owner of the car, and the previous owner per service records had maintained it.

It's true there aren't any 15 year old Teslas rolling around right now since the company hasn't existed quite that long yet but the 10 year old Tesla roadsters out there, thousands of them, seem to be going strong.


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Someone is clueless not sure it's me.


No, it's you.

You admitted to paying for more than one of those repairs listed on a car worth 6 grand. Ever hear the saying, "don't throw good money after bad?" Apparently not. :tsk:


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

No need to get abusive James. Voip is just stating repair costs on an older car. If it’s worth $6k not much alternative but to pay the $2k to repair it, he couldn’t sell it without the repairs.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

The next person who is abusive towards another will receive an infraction. There's no need to argue in that manner. Be civil please.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

JamesWWIII said:


> No, it's you.
> 
> You admitted to paying for more than one of those repairs listed on a car worth 6 grand. Ever hear the saying, "don't throw good money after bad?" Apparently not. :tsk:


Yeah, still not thinking you're getting it.

Hey, I have this car with a broken differential....

Okay, I'll give you $2500 for it, because it's going to take a lot of money to fix.

Hey, I just spent $2000 fixing the busted differential on this 15 year old car and listed it on Craigslist.

Okay, here's that $5700 you are asking for it.

Let's see if I can still do math....

$2500 < ($5700-$2000) == TRUE

Yep, I can still do math.

Same reason that it makes sense to spend $50,000 redoing the bathrooms and kitchen on an older home BEFORE you sell it rather than selling it in distressed condition at a huge discount to prospective buyer.

But, hey, do whatever the hell you want.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> For this specific case, would item 1-3, and 5 be applicable to Tesla too? And does Tesla also have cabin air filter(not engine air filter) and such?


The Tesla does have a suspension, power steering and such, does have brake pads, 12V battery, and has things like cabin air filters.

However, it doesn't have an engine, transmission, and the electric motors do not use any kind of traditional differential.

Comes down to what breaks and how much stuff costs to fix I guess. The engines & transmissions in modern cars are pretty reliable.... I don't know if they are more reliable than the electric motors Tesla is using.


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Let's see if I can still do math....


You originally listed $4500 in repair costs to a $6000 car, but whatever...you do you, bud. :thumbup:

Just make sure you keep a couple fire extinguishers in your Tesla. Is Elon throwing those in as OEM yet? :rofl:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

JamesWWIII said:


> You originally listed $4500 in repair costs to a $6000 car, but whatever...you do you, bud. :thumbup:
> 
> Just make sure you keep a couple fire extinguishers in your Tesla. Is Elon throwing those in as OEM yet? :rofl:


Right, and you realize that those repairs don't all happen simultaneously right?

Something breaks and you weigh whether or not you want to fix it or give up on the car. In most cases it is more economical to fix and keep the car or fix and sell the car than scrap the car.

The final straw on this particular car was the ABS pump failure. After that went down too many things had failed in the span of a couple of years to keep sinking money into it.

Still cheaper to fix it and sell it in good working order than to sell it at a lower price in broken state.

I don't know if Musk is including fire extinguishers on his cars.... I'm not aware of Tesla vehicles being statistically more fire prone than other makes despite the extreme high interest placed when one of their cars catches fire.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The Tesla does have a suspension, power steering and such, does have brake pads, 12V battery, and has things like cabin air filters.
> 
> However, it doesn't have an engine, transmission, and the electric motors do not use any kind of traditional differential.
> 
> Comes down to what breaks and how much stuff costs to fix I guess. The engines & transmissions in modern cars are pretty reliable.... I don't know if they are more reliable than the electric motors Tesla is using.


The 2-wheel Tesla does do away with drive shafts and differentials, and Tesla can adjust weight distribution with the placement of the battery pack.

Is Model 3/Model S 50/50 weight distribution? Tesla website does not seem to show this.

For AWD Tesla though, the transfer case now is replaced by an extra electric motor, and the cost of repair now shifts from the transfer case to electric motor.

There is not much info of reliability of Tesla's electric motor anywhere.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

An associate at Tesla store showed me how to schedule test drive of Model 3.

The associate said the experience will be streamlined, namely, the test drive must be followed by a section to configure the car for purchase. 

When asked if the purchase is mandatory, the associate's answer was elusive, saying why test drive a Model 3 without buying one? 

Eventually no test drive was scheduled for me.

Maybe one day Tesla will have Ultimate Driving Event with $1000 OL code.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> An associate at Tesla store showed me how to schedule test drive of Model 3.
> 
> The associate said the experience will be streamlined, namely, the test drive must be followed by a section to configure the car for purchase.
> 
> ...


I don't believe any auto manufacturer should expect people to purchase without first getting a comprehensive test drive.

On the other hand I've never gotten a test ride of any new motorcycles I've purchased.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I don't believe any auto manufacturer should expect people to purchase without first getting a comprehensive test drive.
> 
> On the other hand I've never gotten a test ride of any new motorcycles I've purchased.


To be clear, the associate left me to sign up for test drive myself(through tesla website), but the associate's comments reminded me the last test drive at Tesla, namely, there were one order specialist and another product specialist that circled us for 20 minutes.

It sounds like Tesla is going to intensify that experience by further applying pressure to customers to complete the purchase on the spot(just a guess on my part).


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> To be clear, the associate left me to sign up for test drive myself(through tesla website), but the associate's comments reminded me the last test drive at Tesla, namely, there were one order specialist and another product specialist that circled us for 20 minutes.
> 
> It sounds like Tesla is going to intensify that experience by further applying pressure to customers to complete the purchase on the spot(just a guess on my part).


I would actually be rather surprised if that were the case.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I would actually be rather surprised if that were the case.


Another clue is that the associate mentioned "single driver", so it can be set up like a UDE street drive with preset route, but it is unlikley primary insurance is included(like UDE).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

An interesting perspective of EV versus ICE repair cost is, other than the common parts, the wear and tear delta of the two can be which components can be stressed by heat.

E.g. ICE has lots of coolant and engine oil parts and hose and gaskets and associated can are stressed out by engine heat.

E.g. EV has electric motors and batteries stressed out by electric heat.

EV heat generation is linked by high electric current, while ICE heat generation is linked to fuel combustion.

One thing to note is electric motors being single gear have much higher rpm(right?) than ICE, it would be increasing to see data of operational temperatures of electric motor and ICE.

The corollary to this is that, what is the reliability, accessibility, and serviceability of these parts?

A fuel tank of ICE is not easy replaced, but reliability is 99.999%. The battery(fuel tank) of EV(e.g. Tesla) is not easily, and cheaply, replaced, but reliability degrades from 99.999% as mileage piles up.

There are pros and cons for both.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Yesterday Bmw signed a Battery supply deal worth nearly $5 Billion with CATL, the world's largest maker of battery cells for electric vehicles. They must certainly see the future in EV's....albeit, that amount of coin is probably small change for the group.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-ev-battery-factory-in-germany-idUSKBN1JZ11Y

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> https://www.truedelta.com/car-reliability-by-brand?min=2015&max=2018
> 
> It is unclear what is the sample size of the above ranking, for what it is, Tesla is ranked last for reliability from 2015 to 2018.


Longterm reliability is a big concern of mine, but not enough to dissuade me from buying it... it drives that well.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Longterm reliability is a big concern of mine, but not enough to dissuade me from buying it... it drives that well.


It is fascinating that Tesla store has no parts department. There is a parts line that requests shop name(probably only body shops are accepted) and such.

Can Tesla owners at least get wiper blade refills from the Tesla stores?


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> It is fascinating that Tesla store has no parts department. There is a parts line that requests shop name(probably only body shops are accepted) and such.
> 
> Can Tesla owners at least get wiper blade refills from the Tesla stores?


Do people go to dealers to buy wiper refills? I would think they would have them changed by the dealer. Or if they do it themselves they go to an auto parts store.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> It is fascinating that Tesla store has no parts department. There is a parts line that requests shop name(probably only body shops are accepted) and such.
> 
> Can Tesla owners at least get wiper blade refills from the Tesla stores?


That's like asking if Tesla owners go to Tesla for tires.... or a cabin air filter. Those parts should be easily obtainable just about anywhere.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> That's like asking if Tesla owners go to Tesla for tires.... or a cabin air filter. Those parts should be easily obtainable just about anywhere.


Local dealer parts desks at times have discounts, or 10% BMWCCA discounts, that match online dealer stores(e.g. getbmwparts) with no shipping charge.

Plus dealer coupons to combine 4 new tires + raod force + BMW-spec alignment that comes out cheaper than Americastires/tirerack + non-BMW spec alignment.

Wiper blade refills and cabin air filters are basics. The next level is stuff like window regulators, door weather seals, door/trunk latch assemblies. Where can those be purchased for DIYs?

Or can at least an indy(non-body shop) call in to purchase these? :dunno:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Local dealer parts desks at times have discounts, or 10% BMWCCA discounts, that match online dealer stores(e.g. getbmwparts) with no shipping charge.
> 
> Wiper blade refills and cabin air filters are basics. The next level is stuff like window regulators, door weather seals, door/trunk latch assemblies. Where can those be purchased for DIYs?


They can't be purchased for DIYs since Tesla does not sell those parts. You know this as it was already answered and then you pivoted to wiper blade refills.

Basically if you need a part that is not a basic consumable, an actual REAL part, Tesla are the only source and they aren't selling them to shade tree mechanics are independent shops. At least not yet. They don't even provide service manuals.

There are guys buying salvage Teslas and trying to fix them... so one of them would be the best possible source to ask for how they are obtaining Tesla parts.

As Tesla gets into the 100's of thousands of cars on US roads, with owners in more rural parts of the USA the pressure for them to allow 3rd party repair will grow.... whether they will cave is another matter entirely.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

There's a guy that has a YouTube channel dedicated to how he built his Tesla S from basicly a pile of scrap...'''.Rich Rebuilds ''' is the channel's name.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> There's a guy that has a YouTube channel dedicated to how he built his Tesla S from basicly a pile of scrap...'''.Rich Rebuilds ''' is the channel's name.
> 
> Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


Does it come with factory warranty?


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

namelessman said:


> Does it come with factory warranty?


Doubt it...the guy, _(I forget his name) is not on polite terms with Elon as he illustrates in his correspondences he has with Elon himself or/and Tesla HQ.

Magnum, this is a private line. Clear off..


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> They can't be purchased for DIYs since Tesla does not sell those parts. You know this as it was already answered and then you pivoted to wiper blade refills.
> 
> Basically if you need a part that is not a basic consumable, an actual REAL part, Tesla are the only source and they aren't selling them to shade tree mechanics are independent shops. At least not yet. They don't even provide service manuals.
> 
> ...


The pivoting to wiper blade refills is the basic thought process of a BMW owner that has OK experience with local dealers, who understands the basic needs of its customers to supply basics for better prices than non-dealers.

As far as allowing 3rd party repair, in general Tesla seems to be taking the stance of Apple, who in theory does not support any 3rd party repair. The difference is Apple products may be shipped easily to Apple repair centers, Tesla products may not be easily shipped(but Tesla can be innovative in that regard as well).


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> I didn't want to mention I3....it's embarrassing.
> 
> But everything's gonna change! Note Tesla builds expecting autonomy - others seem not to - advantage: Tesla.


Yep the i3 is funky. I will hold judgement as to what "others" are doing until we see what comes to market from the big boys. I think VW is ready to launch something interesting in MY 2020.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The pivoting to wiper blade refills is the basic thought process of a BMW owner that has OK experience with local dealers, who understands the basic needs of its customers to supply basics for better prices than non-dealers.
> 
> As far as allowing 3rd party repair, in general Tesla seems to be taking the stance of Apple, who in theory does not support any 3rd party repair. The difference is Apple products may be shipped easily to Apple repair centers, Tesla products may not be easily shipped(but Tesla can be innovative in that regard as well).


Tesla have repeatedly insisted that nobody but Tesla can repair their products.

Not partners mind you, Tesla corporate.

We'll see how long that lofty goal lasts when they have 1M vehicles on the roads and just as many customers.

Tesla having to certify independent shops to work on their vehicles, much like Apple does with their devices seems inevitable.... but they are actually going in the opposite direction. Tesla is so dissatisfied with the work that body shops are doing that they are supposedly doing a pilot program in SoCal in which they will bring body repair in-house and refer all of the customers there to get their cars repaired properly.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla have repeatedly insisted that nobody but Tesla can repair their products.
> 
> Not partners mind you, Tesla corporate.
> 
> ...


One perspective for Tesla's stance is, there is no need for indy repair since Tesla's products are 99.999% reliable.

If that is reality then it will be pointless to worry about replacement parts and repair costs, as the product rarely, rarely fails. There are Tesla forum posts that say Tesla traveled long distance to supercharging locations to swap loaners with customer's cars for service/repairs. This is cost effective only if reliability is 5 nines or above.

BTW, in the birthplace of Tesla, the factory does not provide body shop service. Instead there are Tesla authorized collision centers, and the local ones are mainly chain-owned/direct repair shops that are not highly rated for top quality work. Nonetheless these shops are supposed to be trained to handle the aluminum skins of S/X.

https://www.tesla.com/support/body-shop-support

"Tesla factory repair is available for light collision repair in the following cities.

Bellevue, Washington
Dallas, Texas
Eatonville, Florida
Houston, Texas
Las Vegas, Nevada
Marietta, Georgia
Owings Mills, Maryland
Van Nuys, California
Villa Park, Illinois"


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Isn***8217;t Tesla known for excellent customer service? I know that in Michigan where we have no Tesla dealers due to a state law against direct car sales, the nearest dealer is in Cleveland which is 3 hours away. Tesla sends a flatbed to pick up the owners car and gives them a free rental. The car is returned the same way when repaired.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> This is possible when Tesla has sold only 200k cars lifetime, and investors have been ok with Tesla losing billions with no end in sight(some of those billions paid for that 3-hour one-way pickup plus rental delivery).
> 
> When Tesla does need to answer to investors and sustain profitability, plus millions of cars, they better have at least 5 nines or above, or else .... well, investors probably do not care but keep giving Tesla free passes.


What does this have to do with volume? All they need to do for Michigan owners is contract with a cartage company and a rental car company. Tesla is a luxury car company. They provide commensurate service.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> What does this have to do with volume? All they need to do for Michigan owners is contract with a cartage company and a rental car company. Tesla is a luxury car company. They provide commensurate service.


There is a cost associated with the flat bed and rental service.

Providing such service to 1 out of, say, 100 Michigan Tesla owners is no big deal.

Providing such service to (hypothetical) 10000 out of 1 million Tesla owners in Michigan is no small feat(and the amount of complaints from customers of the inconvenience).

Volume matters. Failure rate matters.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> There is a cost associated with the flat bed and rental service.
> 
> Providing such service to 1 out of, say, 100 Michigan Tesla owners is no big deal.
> 
> ...


The cost is factored into each car sold.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> The cost is factored into each car sold.


Tesla not allowing 3rd party repair does affect the bottom line of the customers in terms of cost.

And the mental exercise to figure out how to maintain/fix these Tesla helps to identify the real cost of ownership(the baked in cost of pick up/down off service, the captive Tesla dealer prices, etc, etc).


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is a new development.

http://markets.businessinsider.com/...employee-files-tip-with-sec-2018-7-1027360260


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> This is a new development.
> 
> http://markets.businessinsider.com/...employee-files-tip-with-sec-2018-7-1027360260


Well, we'll see what shakes out. This is the same guy that stole Tesla IP. So now he was doing it for the greater good?

Also Business Insider is completely hostile to Tesla, so yes, we'll see what happens next.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> This is a new development.
> 
> http://markets.businessinsider.com/...employee-files-tip-with-sec-2018-7-1027360260


Firefox doesn't like that URL


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Well, we'll see what shakes out. This is *the same guy that stole Tesla IP*. So now he was doing it for the greater good?
> 
> Also Business Insider is completely hostile to Tesla, so yes, we'll see what happens next.


Whazzat?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Firefox doesn't like that URL


https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/11/news/companies/tesla-sec-tip/index.html

This link should work.


----------



## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> Also Business Insider is completely hostile to Tesla, so yes, we'll see what happens next.


Tech Crunch also has an article about it.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FaRKle! said:


> Tech Crunch also has an article about it.


Again, we'll see. TSLA stock getting pounded pretty good today as there are numerous negative articles out there trying to portray TSLA as evil, Musk as unhinged and the company as doomed.... all despite the fact that they are now porting improvements from their G3 Model 3 line back to the G2 line and expect to be cranking out 10K cars per week between the two lines by the end of this quarter. 10K cars a week and the associated scale increase greatly improves the likelihood that the $35,000 car Tesla will be forced to sell early next year will be at least slightly profitable.

It also gives TSLA a solid 18+ months to crank cars at 10K units further increasing their lead over competitors like VW and BMW who keep talking about their amazing futuristic plug in EV cars with 300 mile ranges but still haven't delivered a single car. For the math challenged that would be about 750,000 Tesla Model 3s delivered before the very first <$50,000 competitor vehicle with similar capabilities arrived on the scene. Those competitor vehicles also won't be able to make use of the only high speed charging network in the USA that currently exists.

The problem I have with Trip is that he was the source for numerous stock price motivated hit pieces on TSLA over the past few months before his actions were known.... then AFTER he works with financial reporters to leak damaging information he lawyers up and goes to the SEC claiming whistleblower status.

Something about his story just doesn't add up.

Now, would TSLA have tried to intimidate this guy and make an example out of him? Absolutely... however, if he broke the law stealing Tesla IP and leaked it to reporters with the intention of damaging TSLA then he's looking at major felony pound you in the bum federal prison time.

If it turns out he was in fact paid for this info, by reporters, short sellers, etc., then his goose is seriously cooked.


----------



## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

I believe Musk gets a free lunch of sorts because of his highly innovative profile. Now it’s time to dance to the music and accept criticism as much as accolades. Don’t understand why Tesla should get special treatment in the media.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Again, we'll see. TSLA stock getting pounded pretty good today as there are numerous negative articles out there trying to portray TSLA as evil, Musk as unhinged and the company as doomed.... all despite the fact that they are now porting improvements from their G3 Model 3 line back to the G2 line and expect to be cranking out 10K cars per week between the two lines by the end of this quarter. 10K cars a week and the associated scale increase greatly improves the likelihood that the $35,000 car Tesla will be forced to sell early next year will be at least slightly profitable.
> 
> It also gives TSLA a solid 18+ months to crank cars at 10K units further increasing their lead over competitors like VW and BMW who keep talking about their amazing futuristic plug in EV cars with 300 mile ranges but still haven't delivered a single car. For the math challenged that would be about 750,000 Tesla Model 3s delivered before the very first <$50,000 competitor vehicle with similar capabilities arrived on the scene. Those competitor vehicles also won't be able to make use of the only high speed charging network in the USA that currently exists.
> 
> ...


It is unclear to me if whistleblowers disclosing info to reporters before the authorities will still be protected by whistleblower law.

whitehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whistleblower_Protection_Act


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

vw2bmw said:


> I believe Musk gets a free lunch of sorts because of his highly innovative profile. Now it's time to dance to the music and accept criticism as much as accolades. Don't understand why Tesla should get special treatment in the media.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Are you serious? What kind of "free lunch" do you think Tesla/Musk are getting?

Tesla/Musk have been taken to the wood shed this entire year due to the numerous production delays, broken promises, and other issues (autopilot crashes, spontaneous fires) with their products.

If anything the issue is if the Media have been overly harsh, not that they've been harsh.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/betsya...ighlights-other-issues-at-tesla/#52c3aafc344c

http://www.thisisinsider.com/tesla-customers-will-start-losing-a-7500-tax-credit-in-2019-2018-7

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-workers-reportedly-develop-zombie-like-tesla-stare-2018-7

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ill-catch-up-with-tesla-in-coming-years-study

http://www.thisisinsider.com/tesla-workers-were-reportedly-ordered-to-walk-through-raw-sewage-2018-7

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...d-about-nuts-and-bolts-of-manufacturing-video

https://www.thestreet.com/opinion/t...sky-broadcom-slips-papa-john-s-jumps-14650017

http://www.thedrive.com/news/22066/how-effectively-can-a-tesla-interior-keep-cool

http://www.wfmz.com/news/tesla-whistleblower-tells-sec-company-misled-investors/766763206

https://electrek.co/2018/07/10/fca-going-after-tesla-new-ev-plan/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-apos-mounting-problems-could-125700765.html

http://www.autonews.com/article/20180709/OEM06/180709782/tesla-model-3-production-goal-target

That's a sample of the news that has come out in just the past week. It's 90% negative on Tesla and many of the investment analyst opinions strongly insist that if a person is investing in Tesla they ought to have their head examined.

It has been like this all year. The only reason Tesla stock hasn't been hammered is that there a lot of people who bought Tesla when it was under $200 who are long on it, won't sell, and keep acquiring more Tesla stock.

BTW, I don't own any Tesla stock.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> That's a sample of the news that has come out in just the past week. It's 90% negative on Tesla and many of the investment analyst opinions strongly insist that if a person is investing in Tesla they ought to have their head examined.
> 
> It has been like this all year. The only reason Tesla stock hasn't been hammered is that there a lot of people who bought Tesla when it was under $200 who are long on it, won't sell, and keep acquiring more Tesla stock.
> 
> BTW, I don't own any Tesla stock.


None of our TSLA was acquired above $40, and even then(and since then) news have driven stock movement day in day out, and at no point in time it has been anything other than speculative and cult following.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

Is any 3 anywhere near *[this?]*

Gonna be a volume seller....


----------



## LMK5 (Jul 2, 2014)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> Is any 3 anywhere near *[this?]*
> 
> Gonna be a volume seller....


Are they building them under a circus tent?


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

LMK5 said:


> Are they building them under a circus tent?


Yep


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> So if customer asks indy to perform the following job, will the new car warranty be voided?


The rule is: Warrantee is void only for issues resulting from Indy's, or DIY, work.

So. Warrantee as a whole is not voided.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> The rule is: Warrantee is void only for issues resulting from Indy's, or DIY, work.
> 
> So. Warrantee as a whole is not voided.


If that's my car and my goal is *****and-hold, my choice will be to service at dealers, who are the only shops with access to service manuals.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-3-deposit-configurator/

FYI starting last week Tesla no longer takes $1000 "reservation" deposit for Model X.

Instead new customers need to configure their new Model 3 and pay a $2500 non-refundable "configuration" deposit.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

A coworker mentioned that an article(not yet found) online said 400k of Model 3 reservations are for $35k configuration.

If true, then Tesla can fulfill the remaining 100k in a few months, and then start shipping the $35k units.

Musk did say the following, so it looks like Tesla is on track.

"With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-may-never-deliver-125700532.html


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

Does Tesla feature an 8 year warranty, no mileage limit?


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

Back up the truck! 8 yr no mileage warranty is for Tesla's Tesloop cars.

For you & I, 4 years or 50k mi.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> Back up the truck! 8 yr no mileage warranty is for Tesla's Tesloop cars.
> 
> For you & I, 4 years or 50k mi.


And 8 years on the battery.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Wall Street Journal gets first lick of the M3P lollipop and likes it.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...tar-doubters-will-have-to-bring-it-2018-07-19



> I'm no financial analyst, but I do know cars. If you were hoping Tesla TSLA, -1.12% would fail on account of the Model 3 I've got bad news: This thing is magnificent, a little rainbow-farting space ship, so obviously representative of the next step in the history of autos. I know there are a lot of Tesla bears, haters and cynics out there. Tesla boss Elon Musk makes it easy. But in the spirit of charity I think we can all agree many brilliant people are putzes.
> 
> The Model 3 is more than futuristic. It's optimistic. This is what ordinary cars should be, which is to say, better than they are.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Wall Street Journal gets first lick of the M3P lollipop and likes it.
> 
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...tar-doubters-will-have-to-bring-it-2018-07-19


One number sticks out in the article, namely, $80000.

That price tag won't sell the 250k-300k units that Tesla needs to survive.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> One number sticks out in the article, namely, $80000.
> 
> That price tag won't sell the 250k-300k units that Tesla needs to survive.


That is the price for a Performance Model 3 with every option, including 20 inch wheels, white interior, auto pilot and full self driving.

M2 is BMWs top selling M car with 12,000 sold in 2017 *globally*.

Fully optioned it costs $70,000.

Musk has has said that estimates of 30% gross margins on LR RWD $50,000 Model 3 by German analysts are ***8220;spot on***8221; and Sandy Munro says that there will be 10% or better margins even on complete base model $35,000 Model 3.

My prediction is that Tesla will sell all M3 they can produce in 2019 which should be around 200,000-300,000 globally.

You seem to post a lot of FUD in this thread or are just trolling.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> That is the price for a Performance Model 3 with every option, including 20 inch wheels, white interior, auto pilot and full self driving.
> 
> M2 is BMWs top selling M car with 12,000 sold in 2017 *globally*.
> 
> ...


It is unclear what Musk refers to as gross margin, when the company keeps burning billions. Maybe that's how Ponzi scheme works? :dunno:

The subtle point is that the article in post#1470 is upbeat about a $80k car while most Model 3 customers are waiting for the $35k car, so the article is not too useful for most Model 3 customers.

It is unclear what FUD means.

As far as trolling, the OP of this thread is myself. All participation is welcome, anecdotal or otherwise.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Musk has has said that estimates of 30% gross margins on LR RWD $50,000 Model 3 by German analysts are "spot on" and Sandy Munro says that there will be 10% or better margins even on complete base model $35,000 Model 3.


Another point is, 30% and 10% gross margin are great for auto maker stocks, but not that great for tech stocks, which usually requires 80%+ gross margin to support lofty valuation.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-19/why-are-thousands-teslas-sitting-field-california-0

Not ready for Prime Time? Huge number of Teslas' sitting in a field in CA.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-19/why-are-thousands-teslas-sitting-field-california-0
> 
> Not ready for Prime Time? Huge number of Teslas' sitting in a field in CA.


Maybe it is analogous to VPDs at US ports, or BMW Munich factory. Those newly minted cars do need to sit somewhere temporarily. The key is if those are flat-bedded in and out continuously.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

BTW last weekend the factory lot did have lots of Model 3, but not a stream of trunks in and out though.

Now if those fully optioned dual motor high performance LR Model 3 is discounted to $35k, one of those factory gated units will be in my garage this afternoon.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

I was in SF last weekend and a friend arranged a tour of the Tesla factory for us which was interesting and fun. Also more interesting to me he had a Model S which he’s owned for 5 years with 75k miles on it. Looked like it was virtually new, and he said it’s been very reliable, very little noticeable battery degradation, and he said Tesla are very good at fixing minor issue like rattles.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

This guy also had solar panels covering part of his roof, he said they provide all electricity for the house (inc AC) and the Tesla with excess spare generated. The solar panels paid for themselves within 4 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> I was in SF last weekend and a friend arranged a tour of the Tesla factory for us which was interesting and fun. Also more interesting to me he had a Model S which he's owned for 5 years with 75k miles on it. Looked like it was virtually new, and he said it's been very reliable, very little noticeable battery degradation, and he said Tesla are very good at fixing minor issue like rattles.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


The optimal usage model appears to be daily charging between 40-80%, with no extreme cold/hot. Obviously if household can be self-sustained in electricity generation that will be icing on the cake.


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## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

voip-ninja said:


> On the other hand, Tesla is building brand new stuff and some of it is 'learn as you go'.


And that, my dear friend, is the crux of the problem. I mean, why you could sound as an apologist to certain ears.

It wasn't so long ago, certainly not in car-less, electricity-less, airplane-less society at the turn of 19th century, that people and entities making a physical product would only release them after they were sure the product was as good as it can be and that it can withstand reasonable amount of time before becoming obsolete.

"Learn as you go" was a phrase that existed for sure, but the testers of the product certainly weren't paying for it and, most probably, were employees of the same entity that makes product. Customers were considered way off-limits to be testers of unfinished/unbaked product.

Starting somewhere around 1995, closer to 2000, it became acceptable to sell unbaked product and then provide a fix when oooops! was discovered. But that was limited to goods we called "software" and, actually, most of these were really not result of negligence or poor testing. Yeah, there were those too, but mostly, those were honest mistakes borne out of the fact that no Silicon Valley entity had Nostradamus on their payroll.

How and when exactly did the switch to treat the customers as beta testers happen for the physical goods is unclear and, frankly, irrelevant. What is relevant is that people accepted it. And thus, the law stating that people always get exactly what they deserve stays inviolated.

Carry on, as you were


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

This sure looks odd and puzzling..
https://youtu.be/Nd5VulsleYs

Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Mark K said:


> And that, my dear friend, is the crux of the problem. I mean, why you could sound as an apologist to certain ears.
> 
> It wasn't so long ago, certainly not in car-less, electricity-less, airplane-less society at the turn of 19th century, that people and entities making a physical product would only release them after they were sure the product was as good as it can be and that it can withstand reasonable amount of time before becoming obsolete.
> 
> ...


Another way of looking at this is that I drove the car and it is better than anything else in the class.

That forgives a lot.

Maybe the Germans and Detroit are so slow to release appealing EVs that aren't weirdmobiles because they are sorting ALL the issues out over the course of many years before they release their first products into the wild.

Or maybe not.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> This sure looks odd and puzzling..
> https://youtu.be/Nd5VulsleYs
> 
> Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


1. Tesla has logistics problems with transport of 7,000 cars a week (Musk actually said as much 5-6 months ago that distribution would be their biggest bottleneck once production was ramped).

Or

2. Tesla have built thousands of Model 3s they can't find buyers for.

Or

3. Tesla have built thousands of Model 3s in need of rework.

Or

4. Tesla has been stockpiling P and DM cars because they can,t sell them before getting EPA approval.


----------



## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

So Audi is launching soon 2019-20 fully electric in some markets. 
Hold on!


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Mark K said:


> Starting somewhere around 1995, closer to 2000, it became acceptable to sell unbaked product and then provide a fix when oooops! was discovered. But that was limited to goods we called "software" and, actually, most of these were really not result of negligence or poor testing. Yeah, there were those too, but mostly, those were honest mistakes borne out of the fact that no Silicon Valley entity had Nostradamus on their payroll.


Uh, ever heard of the Hindenberg? Swing axle Corvairs? How about Pinto gas tanks? Asbestos insulation? Dow Corning silicon breast implants?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

There were 10 car carriers at the factory lot loading up Model 3's at late hours, 8-10 cars per truck? 

For 700 cars per day, the factory needs around 70 trucks to move those cars.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

namelessman said:


> There were 10 car carriers at the factory lot loading up Model 3's at late hours, 8-10 cars per truck?
> 
> For 700 cars per day, the factory needs around 70 trucks to move those cars.


There is more than one lot. Others reported in Burbank? & someplace else.

Meanwhile, as another Twitter user noted, another just as vast pile of Model 3s can be found near the Burbank Hollywood Airport.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> There is more than one lot. Others reported in Burbank? & someplace else.


The lot mentioned in post#1487 was on site of Fremont Munni plant.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Mark K said:


> It wasn't so long ago, certainly not in car-less, electricity-less, airplane-less society at the turn of 19th century, that people and entities making a physical product would only release them after they were sure the product was as good as it can be and that it can withstand reasonable amount of time before becoming obsolete.


Ha! An absurdly expensive approach --> poor ROI.

A company is effectively managed when product performance optimizes profit within the warranty period. Thereafter, repair is desirable from several perspectives.

To wit: Design for the showroom; optimize costs through expiration of manufacturer's obligation. Sell improved product with new features to replace; same conditions.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

vw2bmw said:


> So Audi is launching soon 2019-20 fully electric in some markets.
> Hold on!


Few care. Unless....autonomy.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

namelessman said:


> Maybe it is analogous to VPDs at US ports, or BMW Munich factory. Those newly minted cars do need to sit somewhere temporarily. The key is if those are flat-bedded in and out continuously.


The following article says Tesla confirmed Lanthrop/Burbank are staging areas for Model 3's.

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-model-3-cars-are-sitting-in-california-parking-lots-2018-7


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## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

voip-ninja said:


> 3. Tesla have built thousands of Model 3s in need of rework.


Likely, it happens all the time with a new product.


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

The competitors are putting their money into EVs. BMW has an iX3 coming out in 2020. I don't see how Tesla keeps up now that the mainstream is putting real effort to it now. But credit to Tesla for coaxing the EV into mainstream. Tesla just doesn't have the dealer/service network that the established brands already have.

https://youtu.be/vUEqYUlQNWk

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/25/17279482/bmw-ix3-concept-specs-beijing-motor-show

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

FCBayernFTW said:


> The competitors are putting their money into EVs. BMW has an iX3 coming out in 2020. I don't see how Tesla keeps up now that the mainstream is putting real effort to it now. But credit to Tesla for coaxing the EV into mainstream. Tesla just doesn't have the dealer/service network that the established brands already have.
> 
> https://youtu.be/vUEqYUlQNWk
> 
> ...


If you read previous posts in this thread, Tesla's battery technology is far more advanced compared to other auto manufacturers. They have been the EV experts for a long tome.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Michael Schott said:


> If you read previous posts in this thread, Tesla's battery technology is far more advanced compared to other auto manufacturers. They have been the EV experts for a long tome.


Agreed. However the big companies will catch up much faster than it took for Tesla to get where they are today.

Additionally it looks like BMW is finally going to make EVs that aren't fugly (and affordable) which would encourage people like me to stay with the brand next go-around. The i3 is an eyesore

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

One interesting observation is that Model 3 drivers appear to sit high, and the car itself looks a bit like a tall toaster. There are online reviews mentioning that the battery pack is 3-4 inches in height, and that raises the floor height of the cabin.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> One interesting observation is that Model 3 drivers appear to sit high, and the car itself looks a bit like a tall toaster. There are online reviews mentioning that the battery pack is 3-4 inches in height, and that raises the floor height of the cabin.


I didn't feel like it sat tall although the thickness of the battery and the low sloping roofline means the rear seats are terrible for taller passengers.

I'm not seeing the toaster resemblance.

Tesla model 3










Breville tall toaster


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Agreed. However the big companies will catch up much faster than it took for Tesla to get where they are today.
> 
> Additionally it looks like BMW is finally going to make EVs that aren't fugly (and affordable) which would encourage people like me to stay with the brand next go-around. The i3 is an eyesore
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


I'm not sure if they will "catch up" to exactly what Tesla is offering. Tesla is offering a combination of an EV with the most sophisticated battery tech currently on offer and also access to a continually expanding rapid charging network, at least in the USA.

I expect that we will see more competition later in 2019 & 2020 that are offering similar vehicles to Tesla with similar ranges.

I don't know that we will see the kind of very long lasting battery performance that Tesla is able to achieve not only by way of their advanced cell technology but also very capable battery management system.

You might see cars with a 5 year 60K battery warranty where they guarantee 75% of the battery capacity up to that point, and shortly after that point the battery might start to become degraded enough that owners will have to consider replacement. There are already Nissan Leaf owners who are torturing batteries on the borderline of the "3rd bar" of battery wear to try to wear them out faster and get Nissan to replace them free under warranty.

The biggest difference is that Tesla are the only ones who have the batteries in individual high density cells with thermal management that looks at each cell. Pretty much every other product on the market is using pouch technology because it is cheaper to manufacture and cheaper to assemble.

Several industry experts who have torn down the Tesla Model 3 battery pack indicate that it is *years* (plural) ahead of anything anyone else is even working on in 2018.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I'm not seeing the toaster resemblance.


Do check out the rear of Model 3 versus Model S.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Agreed. However the big companies will catch up much faster than it took for Tesla to get where they are today.
> 
> Additionally it looks like BMW is finally going to make EVs that aren't fugly (and affordable) which would encourage people like me to stay with the brand next go-around. The i3 is an eyesore
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


Tesla did release some of its patents(not sure if any is battery management) as open source. In general software, e.g. battery management, is easily replicated, it is the underlying hardware, e.g. the individual battery cells, that provide the tech moats against competition.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

voip-ninja said:


> I didn't feel like it sat tall although the thickness of the battery and the low sloping roofline means the rear seats are terrible for taller passengers.
> 
> I'm not seeing the toaster resemblance.
> 
> ...


I have that toaster and have converted it to battery power. It has a capacity of 300 slices of rye toast. Recharges at the local Breville supercharger station in 10 minutes!


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

*Tesla tightens belt!*

Check the Model 3 video review, bottom of page. Tesla's poised for takeoff, or landing....


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> *Tesla tightens belt!*
> 
> Check the Model 3 video review, bottom of page. Tesla's poised for takeoff, or landing....


That was the same road when a Model 3 was in front of us.  The tall rear whobbled a bit on the rough part, in general, it looked competent at hilly twisties.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_uKpn3zflBE

This video dissects a Model 3 2170 battery. It is mainly chemistry, physics, and assembly.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3998327-teslas-batteries-much-expensive-bmws-nissans

The above article provides some data points for the battery costs, so Tesla + panasonic camp has higher battery density but also higher cost compared to BMW + Samsung camp.


----------



## floydarogers (Oct 11, 2010)

namelessman said:


> Tesla did release some of its patents(not sure if any is battery management) as open source. ....


Patented inventions are, by definition, open source. As you note, there are many implementations of some technologies, obviating the necessity of licensing a patent. Sometimes, companies have been good citizens (in the past), like Mercedes Benz for giving away their crush-zone patents.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Electric M cars

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/electrified-bmw-m-cars-are-coming?src=nl&mag=cdb&list=nl_dvr_news&date=072318


----------



## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

quackbury said:


> Uh, ever heard of the Hindenberg? Swing axle Corvairs? How about Pinto gas tanks? Asbestos insulation? Dow Corning silicon breast implants?


Yeah, but those mistakes were not made with "we'll fix it with over-the-air update" mentality. How do I know? They never fixed them


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

A Model 3 test drive request has been submitted for 2-3 weeks now, but there is no contact yet.


In the meantime, Tesla sent reminder that Model 3 can be ordered and delivered in 1-3 months for LR. Does it mean there are a20k to 65k LR orders pending to be filled?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> *Tesla tightens belt!*


After reading this article, a few coworkers cancelled them reservation. Their thinking is there is no point to let Tesla keep their money, so either order and take delivery a week or two(they are considering LR/DM/P models), or no go.

To me, a $35k LR, or $50k DM + P, sounds fair for the risks involved.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The coworkers also brought up "phantom drain", allegedly Model 3 takes the crown of parasitic drains compared to S/X.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-phantom-drain-vampire-loss-vs-s-x/


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

namelessman said:


> So the news says today the first 30 Model 3 will be delivered. It looks like Musk is on schedule this time.
> 
> Will prospective F30 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 instead?


Never mind....will prospective G20 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 if the upcoming 3 series is anything like this ?....  








Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> Never mind....will prospective G20 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 if the upcoming 3 series is anything like this ?....
> View attachment 809894
> 
> 
> Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


Dyno testing shows that the wheel horsepower on the RWD Tesla model 3 is about 360 horsepower, substantially more than Tesla's specs indicate.

That means the dual motor version is probably putting out over 450 horsepower.

Musk can make his cars faster by just downloading a software update.

I will say that the G20 is a much better looking car than the Tesla but I'm also partial to the bmw look.

Anyone scoffing at Tesla performance should spend a day driving one. The rear wheel drive model 3 is only slightly slower off the line than my 340xi and much faster once underway. The dual motor version should pretty much destroy it.

Another small but fun fact is that, unlike internal combustion cars, electric cars suffer no performance penalties when operated at higher altitudes. This is kind of a big deal to the millions of us that live at higher elevations.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Dio///M said:


> Never mind....will prospective G20 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 if the upcoming 3 series is anything like this ?....
> View attachment 809894
> 
> 
> Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


Model 3 continues to move....now seeing three every day. 3 weeks ago it was two.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

What's the state of autonomy, Tesla?

Current and implementable.

Sensors installed?


----------



## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

Dio///M said:


> Never mind....will prospective G20 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 if the upcoming 3 series is anything like this ?....
> View attachment 809894
> 
> 
> Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


Nope. Looking forward to the new M340. Tesla can wait 

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

That M340 looks great to me!


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Another small but fun fact is that, unlike internal combustion cars, electric cars suffer no performance penalties when operated at higher altitudes. This is kind of a big deal to the millions of us that live at higher elevations.


To be fair, ICE also can pull the same 0-60 down to the last drop of fuel, while Model S/EV performance will be throttled after several runs, right?


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> To be fair, ICE also can pull the same 0-60 down to the last drop of fuel, while Model S/EV performance will be throttled after several runs, right?


How often do we do consecutive full throttle launches?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> How often do we do consecutive full throttle launches?


It depends on individual usages. 

Another scenario is a morning commute merge with 1/16 tank left, or 20-30 miles of range left. e.g. those short ramps on 110 around South Pasadena?!?

Maybe most Tesla owners do charge overnight and wake up to fully charged batteries, nonetheless ICE does pull 100% just fine with almost-empty tanks.:thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The Model 3 test drive was quite interesting. 

As voip said, the rear headroom was tight, but 3 moderate-size adults should fit OK in the rear.

The single integrated control/display panel was somewhat daunting, most adjustments should be done before driving off.

The Model 3 auto-pilot tech was useful, and performed better than Model S's, probably due to reduced size of Model 3(not as whobbly during auto lane changes).

The test unit was a performance one with induction motor in the front and PM motor in the rear, 0-60 in 3.5 secs?

The 0-60 feel was almost identical to Model S insane/ludicrous modes, namely, void of any sensation of engine roar nor vibration, with body pushed back to seat.

The car did feel heavy, as cornering was tight yet with leaning, plus some understeer. There was no road feel feedback, just like F30 steering.

To me, Model 3 felt like a Porsche Macan type of crossover/small SUV, with somewhat elevated seating position. 

The car was not pushed too much on public roads, only sweeping curves on freeways, so maybe another ride on hilly twisties should be planned.


----------



## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> It depends on individual usages.
> 
> Another scenario is a morning commute merge with 1/16 tank left, or 20-30 miles of range left. e.g. those short ramps on 110 around South Pasadena?!?
> 
> Maybe most Tesla owners do charge overnight and wake up to fully charged batteries, nonetheless ICE does pull 100% just fine with almost-empty tanks.:thumbup:


Yes. Good point. It's not that you floor it all day long, but you want the power to be there when you do, and that could be when you are running on ICE fumes. Don't know if that applies when you are low on kW or whatever the unit of energy for electrics is called 

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

sr5959 said:


> That M340 looks great to me!


Does it have the hardware to drive itself in 2020?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Does it have the hardware to drive itself in 2020?


Haven't test driven any bimmer with active cruise control + self parking, but the Model 3 auto pilot and self parking techs worked pretty well in the test drive.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Haven't test driven any bimmer with active cruise control + self parking, but the Model 3 auto pilot and self parking techs worked pretty well in the test drive.


Needs drive-by-wire Throttle Steering Brakes and GPS w/street maps @ min.


----------



## Mark K (Jun 5, 2010)

voip-ninja said:


> Anyone scoffing at Tesla performance should spend a day driving one.


As should those glorifying it. It is absolutely a bad form to quote oneself, but if interested in details, I did post lenghthy first drive impressions with Nissan Leaf on this very thread sometime beginning of April. I was absolutely ecstatic about that car.

Where is the problem? Anybody actually caring about 350 whp figure will absolutely need to know that electric car is not for them. Only for those who cannot care less what is whp figure because they simply have no clue what "whp" actually is.

How so? Well, if I can extrapolate from my Leaf experience (and I do not see a single reason why not), batteries feeding those potent motors tend to exhaust the charge very, very rapidly when the vehicle in question is driven by people who care about whp figures. In my own experience, the battery will last about 1/4th when driven properly (as people caring about whp would drive) respect to published range (what people who have no clue what "whp" is will get as a range). So, if you think you have 280 miles range, you really have 70 miles before calling a tow truck. Just as a point of comparison, if your full tank of gas gives you "280 miles" reading, you can safely assume you have about 140 miles *on public road* while driving as if you actually care about what whp on that thing is.

That is why I am saying extensive test drive is in order for all people who know what "whp" means - regardless whether they are Tesla detractors or fans.


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)




----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Mark K said:


> As should those glorifying it. It is absolutely a bad form to quote oneself, but if interested in details, I did post lenghthy first drive impressions with Nissan Leaf on this very thread sometime beginning of April. I was absolutely ecstatic about that car.
> 
> Where is the problem? Anybody actually caring about 350 whp figure will absolutely need to know that electric car is not for them. Only for those who cannot care less what is whp figure because they simply have no clue what "whp" actually is.
> 
> ...


I don't understand your statement at all. So you say if you care about performance and drive the car hard you will get 80-100 miles of range out of a 320 mile range Tesla 3?

Nobody reviewing these cars is reporting this. Even Car and Driver and Motortrend who confessed to hot footing it reported no such range reductions.

WSJ lead car reviewer who has been incredibly critical of Tesla did not report that after a few launches the car stopped performing correctly.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I don***8217;t understand your statement at all. So you say if you care about performance and drive the car hard you will get 80-100 miles of range out of a 320 mile range Tesla 3?


This can easily be proved/disproved by yourself with another day of Tesla rental.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> At least for now it is completely true, Tesla is destroying all competitors in this segment currently.
> 
> Remains to be seen if it is sustainable.


I been sayin ' it.

Ain't I been sayin' it?

*YES --> Will be sustained and accelerate* if autonomy activated next year & production increased. Isn't Tesla's next facility in China?


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> I been sayin ' it.
> 
> Ain't I been sayin' it?
> 
> *YES --> Will be sustained and accelerate* if autonomy activated next year & production increased. Isn't Tesla's next facility in China?


Gigafactory 3 will be in China.

Gigafactory 2 is in buffalo New York but is not involved in EV production.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> I been sayin ' it.
> 
> Ain't I been sayin' it?
> 
> *YES --> Will be sustained and accelerate* if autonomy activated next year & production increased. Isn't Tesla's next facility in China?


When the stars line up that may as well happen. That's why our only Tesla product still has not been sold yet, esp. when Musk can convince customers to pay $14k extra for 110-mile extra range, and $11k extra for 30-50HP extra from the same rear motors(albeit the best parts available).


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> When the stars line up that may as well happen. That's why our only Tesla product still has not been sold yet, esp. when Musk can convince customers to pay $14k extra for 110-mile extra range, and $11k extra for 30-50HP extra from the same rear motors(albeit the best parts available).


How much more does M3 cost than 340i and what do you get for that money?


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> How much more does M3 cost than 340i and what do you get for that money?


I'll answer my own question;

340i RWD automatic, base price $48,900.

0-60 is about 5.0 seconds.

BMW M3, RWD, base price is about $69,400.

0-60 is about 4 seconds.

So, you pay $21,000 to BMW to go from 340i to M3 and all you get is 1 second faster time, better brakes and better suspension, right?

I will concede that the M3 has far more cachet than a 340i, and comes (at a high cost) with the option of some unique colors for both the car itself and the interior that are unique to the M series. It definitely has a far more polished bespoke look and feel than the Tesla.

You can also spunk down $4400 or so for the M performance package for the M3 which comes with 19 more horsepower (yeah you read that right) and .1 second faster 0-60 times (still well above what Tesla quotes the M3P at) along with adaptive suspension which won't be available on the Tesla Model 3 till sometime next year.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> When the stars line up that may as well happen. That's why our only Tesla product still has not been sold yet, esp. when Musk can convince customers to pay *$14k extra for 110-mile extra range, and $11k extra for 30-50HP extra from the same rear motors*(albeit the best parts available).


For the people who buy 'em, far less an issue than most think.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> For the people who buy 'em, far less an issue than most think.


Agreed, and Musk understands that very well. :thumbup:


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I'll answer my own question;
> 
> 340i RWD automatic, base price $48,900.
> 
> ...


Base M3 is $66.5k, a similarly equipped 340i (e.g. M sport + premium tier +heated front seat) is around $55k. Even at $55k, additional standard options on M3 include:

1. M adaptive suspension
2. 18-inch 255 and 275 40/R18(340i is 225 and 255/45R18)
3. M brake
4. M body kit(not M sport stuff as in 340i)
5. M performance suspension
6. M exhaust
7. reinforced M chassis(cost an arm and leg if not from factory)
8. extra 100HP+ and 100lb-ft+(?), and minus 1 second 0-60
9. various beefed components(coolant, oil, pumps, etc, etc) to sustain the extra HP/lb-ft.

It is up to interpretation that these items can be worth extra $11.5k MSRP. Out of this list, the most difficult to retrofit to 340i is the reinforced M chassis.

The question asked in post#1570 is, what does extra $11k buy going from Model 3 DM to P?

From the test drive, the P is as vanilla as the LR and DM. Is it possible the P has beefed up suspension, brake, and most importantly, reinforced chassis?

Or Tesla just disable a software switch to crank out extra 30-50HP from the rear, and charge $11k extra, while DM is 90% of the same car? From the news article, it looks like at least the P motors are the "best" parts, the inverter is beefed up, and it rides on 20-inch rims. Do note these are not much extra cost to Tesla(except the 20-inch wheel), so the $11k is mostly profit.

In contrast, the M3 still needs quite a bit of extra hardware to get to its 4 seconds, and present a completely different car than 340i.

Inquisitive minds of some festers may start to wonder, if Model 3 P can get to its quasi-sport performance with so little changes(with a $64k premium), should the $35k standard range Model 3 be the screaming sweet spot of the whole lineup? :thumbup:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Base M3 is $66.5k, a similarly equipped 340i (e.g. M sport + premium tier +heated front seat) is around $55k. Even at $55k, additional standard options on M3 include:
> 
> 1. M adaptive suspension
> 2. 18-inch 255 and 275 40/R18(340i is 225 and 255/45R18)
> ...


The Tesla doesn't offer the choice of a stick for obvious reasons so it seemed prudent to compare automatic to automatic transmission for the BMW. Automatic transmission is also needed to get advertised 0-60 times if I remember correctly.

At the end of the day the averybuyer doesn't care about all the expensive beefed up internals in the M3 compared to the 340i, they care that the M3 is noticeably faster, stops better, handles better and probably if people are being honest, can't be mistaken for a regular 3 series.

In the case of the Tesla I expect that there will be more differentiation in P version cars once Tesla is able to get ahead of demand.

For now it appears that bin sorted motors with much faster 0-60 and 1/4 mile performance along with better brakes and some upgraded suspension bits along with a carbon fiber rear spoiler are about it.

They probably will still be able to sell as many as they build. Initial testing seems to indicate 0-60 performance of more like 3.2-3.3 seconds which is pretty crazy out of $68000 electric sedan.

As to the SR RWD version being the "sweet spot" that is relative. Most who wait for that car will be giving up most if not all tax credits, the car will be missing quite a few amenities, will have markedly lower range and will be slower.

Still will probably sell like hot cakes.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Looks like Tesla has announced free lifetime supercharging for P3D original owners who place their orders by today. Probably to sweeten the deal for those on the fence between AWD and P versions v


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The Tesla doesn't offer the choice of a stick for obvious reasons so it seemed prudent to compare automatic to automatic transmission for the BMW. Automatic transmission is also needed to get advertised 0-60 times if I remember correctly.
> 
> At the end of the day the averybuyer doesn't care about all the expensive beefed up internals in the M3 compared to the 340i, they care that the M3 is noticeably faster, stops better, handles better and probably if people are being honest, can't be mistaken for a regular 3 series.
> 
> ...


The tax credit is a valid concern, $7500 does alleviate some of the Tesla's price gouging.

So one consideration of coworkers is the LR RWD, or DM for December delivery. The leaning is towards the RWD, as it is one less motor to worry about, and some weight savings.

As one previous comment hinted on, the 3.2-3.5 seconds appear to make customers forgive/accept lots of shortcomings, surely that's the magic of Tesla/TSLA. 

For what it is, the DNA of Model 3 appears to be common across SR, LR, DM, and P, so even without the tax credit, the SR still can be a good buy(and Tesla probably needs to adjust their priec gouging once the credits are gone).


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Looks like Tesla has announced free lifetime supercharging for P3D original owners who place their orders by today. Probably to sweeten the deal for those on the fence between AWD and P versions v


Referrals already get unlimited free supercharging even for Model 3, right?


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Referrals already get unlimited free supercharging even for Model 3, right?


Nope.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The tax credit is a valid concern, $7500 does alleviate some of the Tesla's price gouging.
> 
> So one consideration of coworkers is the LR RWD, or DM for December delivery. The leaning is towards the RWD, as it is one less motor to worry about, and some weight savings.
> 
> ...


I think we've gotten to the root of your issues. You believe Tesla is gouging on prices.

1/2 million reservation holders disagree with you.

Tesla have zero competition in this space today. Despite years of hearing how BMW, VW, Jaguar, Porsche and GM are going to eat Tesla's lunch we've seen virtually zero competition arrive ready to sell.

Where's the competitor to the Model 3 that offers a sweeter deal? Chevy Bolt? Don't make me laugh.

The reality is that if Tesla was gouging and the Model 3 offered as poor a deal as you seem to claim they wouldn't be able to sell over 14,000 of them in July alone, destroying sales numbers of every single one of their competitors in this space.

Toyota Camry, #1 midsize sedan in the USA with after rebate starting price of around $20,000 only sold 26,000 in June.

Other competitors will have to provide the Tesla driving experience, automation tech (standard on every car) and national fast charging network before customers pass on Tesla because they don't offer more seat color or trim choices or magnetic suspension.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I think we've gotten to the root of your issues. You believe Tesla is gouging on prices.


It is enlightening to see how 3.2-3.5 seconds make customers forgive/accept the long list of shortcomings, that is a root issue that Musk banks on, and TSLA owners love. :thumbup:


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Yepper, it's not a gouge if the market will bear.
> 
> It is good business! Now, that might be too difficult for some to support....


That is indeed good business, and in fact typical SV tech business. 

My support of Tesla started way back as TSLA owners, so Tesla good business is good for me. :thumbup:

Having said that, Tesla turning profitable also can be bad for TSLA owners, as now there are positive PE and EPS to benchmark, and the cult following/speculation that blindly accepts negative PE and huge corporate debts will dissipate.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> It is enlightening to see how 3.2-3.5 seconds make customers forgive/accept the long list of shortcomings, that is a root issue that Musk banks on, and TSLA owners love. :thumbup:


I drive a fully loaded 340xi and am very much looking forward to my Tesla.

Apparently I have a different view of these shortcomings than you do.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I drive a fully loaded 340xi and am very much looking forward to my Tesla.
> 
> Apparently I have a different view of these shortcomings than you do.


From your description, there are also at least 3 other cars in your garage that cater to the shortcomings of Model 3 in whichever way that fits your needs.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> From your description, there are also at least 3 other cars in your garage that cater to the shortcomings of Model 3 in whichever way that fits your needs.


Not true.

Car #2 is my wife's daily driver and doesn't do anything my primary car can't do.

Car #3 is a nanny car that again doesn't do anything my car doesn't do.

Car #4 is our SUV and does many things none of our other cars do such as provide maximum safety for children. I would have this vehicle regardless of what car was sitting in my spot in the garage.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Not true.
> 
> Car #2 is my wife's daily driver and doesn't do anything my primary car can't do.
> 
> ...


Please share your unabridged experience with festers of Model 3 P versus 340i after the delivery, preferably side-by-side. :thumbup:


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Dio///M said:


> I did, that's why I said "could".
> Inconclusive I agree, yet a cause for concern. Long term exposure to EMF in EV's will take time to show its side effects but given that magnetic fields have been considered*possibly carcinogenic in humans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer of the World Health Organization, it's not a matter to be ignored.
> 
> Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


Agree it's not to be ignored but it's not like EV's don't use any shielding. IMO this line of thinking is in the tin hat school.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

pkalhan said:


> It's their 3rd highest. Previous two quarters were higher.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


That's true, Q4 2017 net loss was 0.771B, Q1 2018 net loss 0.710B, and Q2 2018 0.717B.

Probably the article writers just got used to Tesla setting net loss records, and just copied the word "record" from quarter to quarter.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

voip-ninja said:


> Delivered to customers


So the 3 is destroying the competition by finally burning some of the backlog created by low production rates before last month going back a year or so.


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

bear-avhistory said:


> So the 3 is destroying the competition by finally burning some of the backlog created by low production rates before last month going back a year or so.


Your audacity to spin actuality is remarkable

Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


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## pkalhan (Jan 29, 2016)

namelessman said:


> That's true, Q4 2017 net loss was 0.771B, Q1 2018 net loss 0.710B, and Q2 2018 0.717B.
> 
> Probably the article writers just got used to Tesla setting net loss records, and just copied the word "record" from quarter to quarter.


you are so cool.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

bear-avhistory said:


> So the 3 is destroying the competition by finally burning some of the backlog created by low production rates before last month going back a year or so.


There is enough pent up demand for Tesla to completely destroy the segment for at least another year because the very soonest any real competition is slated to show up is late 2019 to late 2020.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Mark in NoVA said:


> I've stayed out of most of the ongoing Monty Python Argument Clinic in this thread ....


"An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a proposition.":thumbup:


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The F30 has not seen much of failing HPFP, which btw is covered for 15 years and 150k miles for N26 in PZEV states. :thumbup:
> 
> The RFT is relatively simple to alleviate, e.g. Driveguard RFT, which is as close to non-RFT as it gets with decent A/S characteristics.
> 
> In a way, F30 is relatively boring car as far as heroic DIYs are concerned.


Saying: BMW's been just as guilty of deficiencies as Tesla.

Not that Tesla owners care much about what's lacking.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Dio///M said:


> I did, that's why I said "could".
> Inconclusive I agree, yet a cause for concern. Long term exposure to EMF in EV's will take time to show its side effects but given that magnetic fields have been considered*possibly carcinogenic in humans by the International Agency for Research on Cancer of the World Health Organization, it's not a matter to be ignored. Concerns are not without merit.
> 
> Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


*Dammit man! *

What about my magnetic therapy bracelet?


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

Also, magnetic & electric fields have difficulty penetrating materials like sheet metal & motor housings. Probably Tesla has thought of this as the durn thing runs via electronic controls.

Are you familiar with EMI testing & qualification?


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Can you guys get tin foil briefs to go with your tin foil hats? Besides, a little genetic mutation will spice up the gene pool.

Sent from my HTC 10 using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

quackbury said:


> Can you guys get tin foil briefs to go with your tin foil hats? Besides, a little genetic mutation will spice up the gene pool.
> 
> Sent from my HTC 10 using Bimmerfest mobile app


Pretty sure this thread is more cancerous than a Tesla automobile.


----------



## sqlman (Jun 29, 2018)

.


----------



## sqlman (Jun 29, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Pretty sure this thread is more cancerous than a Tesla automobile.


I love how the most active thread by far in a BMW forum is about Tesla. Good job all.


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> Pretty sure this thread is more cancerous than a Tesla automobile.


:rofl::rofl::rofl:


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

quackbury said:


> Can you guys get tin foil briefs to go with your tin foil hats? Besides, a little genetic mutation will spice up the gene pool.


I find the hat, even with briefs, exposes far too much to signal manipulation.

Here's what I use when I travel top down:


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Magnum this is a private line...clear off!


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Saying: BMW's been just as guilty of deficiencies as Tesla.
> 
> Not that Tesla owners care much about what's lacking.


My original intent to participate on this F30 forum is to learn about the heroic DIYs and bimmers falling apart in no time like the good old days. It turns out that F30 is such a boring car as far as reliability is concerned, so most festers end up talking about lease vs. buy, warranties, and now Tesla. 

Another subtle point, as much as the discussions appear to be argumentative, the process does allow festers to see through the marketing and spinning(from BMW and Tesla alike), and normalize their perspectives accordingly. :thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

One coworker did this math, namely, if a brand new order of LR/DM/P takes 2-3 months, that will be 45k-65k orders pending. 

Does it mean the majority of the 0.5m reservation holders waiting for the SR trim?

In fact, does the Tesla earnings conference call say how many Model 3 reservations are left?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> One coworker did this math, namely, if a brand new order of LR/DM/P takes 2-3 months, that will be 45k-65k orders pending.
> 
> Does it mean the majority of the 0.5m reservation holders waiting for the SR trim?
> 
> In fact, does the Tesla earnings conference call say how many Model 3 reservations are left?


Tesla have stated that over half of new reservations are for dual motor configuration cars.

In response to claims that cancellation of Model 3 was hitting epic levels (a story pumped by several financial blogs) Musk tweets in response that Tesla had 5,000 net new Model 3 reservations in just one week.

There appears to be plenty of demand and the arrival of the SR version next year when the tax incentives sunset can only help Tesla since it doesn***8217;t seem likely BMW or VW/Audi will try this price point with anything they currently have planned.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla have stated that over half of new reservations are for dual motor configuration cars.
> 
> In response to claims that cancellation of Model 3 was hitting epic levels (a story pumped by several financial blogs) Musk tweets in response that Tesla had 5,000 net new Model 3 reservations in just one week.
> 
> There appears to be plenty of demand and the arrival of the SR version next year when the tax incentives subset can only help Tesla since it doesn***8217;t seem likely BMW or VW/Audi will try this price point with anything they currently have planned.


The incentives going away can be a concern, e.g. last July Model S sales dropped to zero in Hong Kong when govt subsidies were eliminated. The fed tax credit does stay at 50% and 25%(?) for two more quarters, so that can ease the pain a bit.

My guess though is that Tesla needs to start cranking out SR by Q4 to keep the factory running.

Not sure about Tesla owners, but today is good one for TSLA owners. :thumbup:


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## TXBonedaddy (Sep 20, 2017)

Lol, yes just saying 'tinfoil hats' completely validates your baseless opinion. I will tell you this - guys in their early 30s do not generally have prostate issues. My work schedule had me driving in concentrated groups, where the issue would arise soon after. I also discovered close to 600 volts was flowing from the battery pack in back to the motor at full throttle - a couple of inches right under my man berries in the driver seat. The issue completely went away after trading in the car after a few months. I experienced the evidence first hand, you can believe what you want...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

TXBonedaddy said:


> Lol, yes just saying 'tinfoil hats' completely validates your baseless opinion. I will tell you this - guys in their early 30s do not generally have prostate issues. My work schedule had me driving in concentrated groups, where the issue would arise soon after. I also discovered close to 600 volts was flowing from the battery pack in back to the motor at full throttle - a couple of inches right under my man berries in the driver seat. The issue completely went away after trading in the car after a few months. I experienced the evidence first hand, you can believe what you want...


Current flow is what you're concerned with.

So. Would there have been a ferrous metal layer between you and the power line?

Did that ride use a DC motor?


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

voip-ninja said:


> There is enough pent up demand for Tesla to completely destroy the segment for at least another year because the very soonest any real competition is slated to show up is late 2019 to late 2020.


61 percent of all Model 3 reservations occured in the first month, April 2016. The remaining 40% took 2.5 years to book.

How many new ones are they currently making a month to promis faster delivery on new orders & kill the backlog?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> 61 percent of all Model 3 reservations occured in the first month, April 2016. The remaining 40% took 2.5 years to book.
> 
> How many new ones are they currently making a month to promis faster delivery on new orders & kill the backlog?


That is good data. :thumbup:

The following article quotes a Tesla press release that said Model 3 reservation was at 420k at end of Q2 2018, and Musk recently quoted net increase of 5k reservation per week, so it looks like the backlog can be growing if the data is accurate.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/02/tesla-official-model-3-production-numbers-q2/


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Even if Tesla gets to the point where US production outgrows demand the problem is solved by shipping cars to Europe. 

I believe they will have to hit sustained 6,000 weekly production numbers for a couple full quarters before that happens.

Even in a really good month the combined bmw sales numbers for 2/3/4/5 series cars is something like 15K. The idea that Tesla will soon be delivering well over that with just the Model 3 is kind of amazing.

Also while home charging is great (and what I plan to do 99% of the time) Tesla is the only US automaker who can currently cater to those with no access to home charging, such as apartment dwellers with a high speed charging solution that is readily available. 

They are also the only ones who have an in place solution for those who won't buy an EV unless they can use it for long distance travel.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Even if Tesla gets to the point where US production outgrows demand the problem is solved by shipping cars to Europe.
> 
> I believe they will have to hit sustained 6,000 weekly production numbers for a couple full quarters before that happens.
> 
> ...


BMWNA's 2017 sales should be 305k units total, and BMWAG's 2017 worldwide sales 2.4m units total. For what it is(and ignoring the creative accounting), Tesla is currently around 1/10th the size of BMW.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> BMWNA's 2017 sales should be 305k units total, and BMWAG's 2017 worldwide sales 2.4m units total. For what it is(and ignoring the creative accounting), Tesla is currently around 1/10th the size of BMW.


And Apple only has 10% of the global smartphone market but just passed $1,000,000,000,000 briefly today.

My guess is that bmw executives recognize Tesla as a much larger competitor than Audi or Mercedes in the US market.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> And Apple only has 10% of the global smartphone market but just passed $1,000,000,000,000 briefly today.
> 
> My guess is that bmw executives recognize Tesla as a much larger competitor than Audi or Mercedes in the US market.


Comparing Apple's current smartphone market share and balance sheets versus Tesla's really misses the point of how SV tech works.

In the end(and a few quarters in Tesla's case), the market will decide if Tesla/EV is a niche or not.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

sqlman said:


> I love how the most active thread by far in a BMW forum is about Tesla. Good job all.


not surprised at all, considering first ever add for model 3 (and i think only one to date) was produced and paid for by BMW

https://jalopnik.com/bmws-tesla-model-3-attack-ads-are-hilariously-ironic-1785051334


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

bear-avhistory said:


> 61 percent of all Model 3 reservations occured in the first month, April 2016. The remaining 40% took 2.5 years to book.
> 
> How many new ones are they currently making a month to promis faster delivery on new orders & kill the backlog?


So what is the backlog for BMW? How many similar deposits are they holding? What about Porsche? 
Are you assuming that the only people interested in Tesla are the one's who put down a deposit?


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## CAFleming (Aug 20, 2004)

Longtime BMW owner; I've had a 7, several 5s, and a whole lot of 3s. 

Got a Tesla Model S a year ago, and it's paradigm shifting. The incredible power delivery, the big screen, the well integrated app that does about everything... Well, it makes me realize that other than fit and finish quibbles (and my Model S is actually quite good), BMW has a long way to go in catching up to an electric future. To "go" electric you need good electric cars AND you need a good rapid charging network. So far, no one even comes close to Tesla in meeting those requirements. Range extenders like on the i3 are a stopgap measure: who wants a so-so electric car that still has the disadvantages of an inefficient gas engine which lots of moving parts, catalytic converters, oil changes, etc. 

I recently took my 2016 Porsche Cayenne into the dealer for it's routine one year. 40K stop. $1200 for an oil change, spark plugs and brake fluid flush. The only thing the Tesla will require in the first two years is a brake fluid flush. So far, it's required nothing after a year and 16K miles. 

I hope BMW can get caught up quickly; right now my next car will be Tesla Model 3 performance version; a BMW 3 just seems boring.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

So much hate in this thread towards Tesla / Musk. Especially posts by OP, 9 out of 10 are classic passive aggressive statements. The "thumbs up" at the end of each post are hilarious. 
Interestingly, it does not seem to be a hate directed towards EVs in general, as most of the haters appear to be open to a German made EV version. So it must be Tesla / Musk.


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

voip-ninja said:


> And Apple only has 10% of the global smartphone market but just passed $1,000,000,000,000 briefly today.
> 
> My guess is that bmw executives recognize Tesla as a much larger competitor than Audi or Mercedes in the US market.


They do and they have been ****ting bricks for a while now. Their best option so far has been the i3. Talk about a vehicle that looks like a toaster, to reference earlier posts.
Meanwhile, Tesla has been selling EVs since 2012, going on strong and growing. 
The type of demand enjoyed by Tesla currently is every automaker's wet dream.

Model 3 might not kill a 3 series BMW, but it will take a huge market share from every manufacturer in not so distant future.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

PK2348 said:


> So much hate in this thread towards Tesla / Musk. Especially posts by OP, 9 out of 10 are classic passive aggressive statements. The "thumbs up" at the end of each post are hilarious.
> Interestingly, it does not seem to be a hate directed towards EVs in general, as most of the haters appear to be open to a German made EV version. So it must be Tesla / Musk.


"adjective: passive-aggressive

of or denoting a type of behavior or personality characterized by indirect resistance to the demands of others and an avoidance of direct confrontation, as in procrastinating, pouting, or misplacing important materials."

There is no demand nor confrontation from anyone here, so the term "passive-aggressive" does not apply.

All participation is welcome, regardless of ancedotal or otherwise.:thumbup:


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## Saintor (Dec 14, 2002)

PK2348 said:


> Meanwhile, Tesla has been selling EVs since 2012, .


2008.

It was a Roadster.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

PK2348 said:


> So what is the backlog for BMW? How many similar deposits are they holding? What about Porsche?
> Are you assuming that the only people interested in Tesla are the one's who put down a deposit?


Lots of people have interest in lots of things. Trick is to convert interest into sales. Difference in backlog BMW to Tesla is even though I order mine BMW sells most US cars off the dealer lot.

The sale cycle to delivery for a majority is a few days if that. Tesla sale cycle is months at best.

If you remember its been established that a sale is listed as the car is delivered. We know BWW is delivering x thousand cars a month off the lot. We know Tesla is building & delivering cars now to cover money deposited over the past 2.5 years. They seem to be holding the number of new deposits close to the corporate vest & talking up production rates.

Those new contract numbers, August, September, October, etc are the key to knowing how sustainable their sales volume actually is & what that sustainable number month in & month out truly is once they are current with the backlog eliminated. You are also looking at the loss of subsidies that helped drive the initial surge.

Our Porsche experence was dealer lot to driveway same day, 3 times.



> Model 3 might not kill a 3 series BMW, but it will take a huge market share from every manufacturer in not so distant future.


3 sales are down but BMW overall sales are up. How many went to Tesla & how many went to other BMW cars? Everybody steals sales nothing new there in the car business.

When you are talking about market share remember BMW +5%, MB +9% Audi +4% etc are global sellers with over 2 million sales a year each, thats actual deliveries paid for. Right now Tesla is a niche company


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> Right now Tesla is a niche company


Yet a contender and the potential for electric drive dynamics --> not much more than scratched.

ICE looking unnecessarily complicated, and then there's that pesky torque curve....


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

Saintor said:


> 2008.
> 
> It was a Roadster.


If I posted 2008 all the haters would scream that it was a lotus with a battery


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Yet a contender and the potential for electric drive dynamics --> not much more than scratched.
> 
> ICE looking unnecessarily complicated, and then there's that pesky torque curve....


It can also be history repeating itself again.

https://www.curbed.com/2017/9/22/16346892/electric-car-history-fritchle


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> MT has an article of Model 3 teardown, the finding is that EE stuff is great, the mechanical stuff is not that great.


Typical growing pains. Tesla has a winner - expect refinement, and quick!

Have to think if the mass issue is related to stiffness and integrity under stress. Engineering needed....2019 MY changes?


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## M40i4me (Jan 16, 2011)

The real answer to this question will be the new EV G20 in testing now.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

3284me said:


> The real answer to this question will be the new EV G20 in testing now.


This article surfaced today, ".... electrified variant spotted". It is unclear if it is plug-in hybrid or pure EV or something else.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/spy-shots/bmw/bmw-3-series-2018-next-three-codenamed-g20-revealed/


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## brooski1 (Aug 24, 2015)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Typical growing pains. Tesla has a winner - expect refinement, and quick!


More growing pains? Really? Can't engineer a bumper cover that won't fall off in the rain?

https://jalopnik.com/bumper-falls-off-brand-new-tesla-model-3-after-30-minut-1828306917

Engineering solution? Liquid Nails and make it pronto.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

So they didn't get the all-weather package did they?

Sent from my WAS-LX1 using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

.... Panel gaps is one thing, but I think this is taking it too far...pun intended, like what's the distance between that bumper and the rest of the car?....

Sent from my WAS-LX1 using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

brooski1 said:


> More growing pains? Really? Can't engineer a bumper cover that won't fall off in the rain?
> 
> https://jalopnik.com/bumper-falls-off-brand-new-tesla-model-3-after-30-minut-1828306917
> 
> Engineering solution? Liquid Nails and make it pronto.


At least this one couldn't have been fixed by OTA updates, hence customers know about it! 

Apparently one driver said the car was driven through deep water, if so, bumper being torn off is the least of the issues, what about the battery pack getting flooded?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is interesting news.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-workers-say-model-3-line-workers-sent-home-early-2018-8


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

OUCH

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/tesla-tumbles-3point5-percent-ahead-of-elon-musks-reported-meeting-with-sec.html

Shorts happy


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> OUCH
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/17/tesla-tumbles-3point5-percent-ahead-of-elon-musks-reported-meeting-with-sec.html


The article in post#1728 said workers at factory's main GA3 assembly line were allowed to leave early on Wed with only 211 of 300 quota done for that shift.

That can be a one-time halt of assembly line to retool.

But if that pace break is persistent, then one question posted here(Is Model 3 demand for high profit DM/P/LR sustainable? Q3 and Q4?) will be tentatively answered.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

namelessman said:


> The article in post#1728 said workers at factory's main GA3 assembly line were allowed to leave early on Wed with only 211 of 300 quota done for that shift.
> 
> That can be a one-time halt of assembly line to retool.
> 
> But if that pace break is persistent, then one question posted here(Is Model 3 demand for high profit DM/P/LR sustainable? Q3 and Q4?) will be tentatively answered.


Saw that. Not a good plan with the other news. Sold or not they should have kept the line running for "business as usual"

That said line can shut down for a lot of reasons like "just in time parts" not being there in time.:dunno:


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> ....line can shut down for a lot of reasons like "just in time parts" not being there in time.


I can tell you, Model 3's are movin' out in a big way. Many more on Bay Area roads now; auto carriers full o'3's sighted every day.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

https://f30.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1527037

This is an interesting review of a F30 owner switching to Model 3.

Exterior - 4/10
Interior - 7/10
Controls - 9/10
Infotainment - 9/10
Driving - at least 12/10

The last paragraph is telling:

"Bottom line: my dream car will have a BMW body and a BMW interior with Tesla drivetrain and infotainment. But until such a thing exists, I'll keep happily driving the Model 3."

So will pure electric G20 resolves the dilemma?


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

I was reading in the new C&D the Jaguar I-Pace road test...all-electric SUV 240 mile range and 0/60 in 4.5secs. Going on sale here in US this month. One of the first real Tesla competitors from a mainstream manufacturer. $70k so cheaper than Model X. How will Tesla do against this type of competition???


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

sr5959 said:


> I was reading in the new C&D the Jaguar I-Pace road test...all-electric SUV 240 mile range and 0/60 in 4.5secs. Going on sale here in US this month. One of the first real Tesla competitors from a mainstream manufacturer. $70k so cheaper than Model X. How will Tesla do against this type of competition???
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


The model 3 with awd and performance puts up better numbers....










Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

sr5959 said:


> I was reading in the new C&D the Jaguar I-Pace road test...all-electric SUV 240 mile range and 0/60 in 4.5secs. Going on sale here in US this month. One of the first real Tesla competitors from a mainstream manufacturer. $70k so cheaper than Model X. How will Tesla do against this type of competition???
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


The Tesla is a full 7 seat SUV and is 14" longer than the Jag. And the doors!


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Michael Schott said:


> The Tesla is a full 7 seat SUV and is 14" longer than the Jag. And the doors!


I still think it will take a lot of Model X sales...and it's the first of many competitors from mainstream manufacturers for Tesla. I thought it was due out sometime next year not this month!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> I still think it will take a lot of Model X sales...and it's the first of many competitors from mainstream manufacturers for Tesla. I thought it was due out sometime next year not this month!


This is a good i-Pace review.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpbtmpl-5iU


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So I-Pace is $10k less than Model X, looks more nicer than Model X, and does not have thermal limitation on the track like Model S/3(not sure about X).

This is definitely worth a trip to Jag dealer for a test drive. 

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/03/06/2019-jaguar-i-pace-pricing-announced/


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Looks really impressive! When they start offering leases I’ll try one...I’d go up to $750/month as I’d be saving $200/month in gas


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## BobinIl (Oct 29, 2014)

namelessman said:


> This is a good i-Pace review.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpbtmpl-5iU


That is a good review. I like this guy. He's low key with a restrained sense of humor. I've watched his reviews of a couple of other cars that I have an interest in.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So WSJ analysts are impressed by Model 3 electronics and powertrain, but found significant fit and finish and manufacturing issue, with no easy fixes.

The article also commented that Tesla will lose $6k on each 35k SR sold due to the military grade electronics and such.

So customers(at least informed ones) really need to forgive a lot to pay $50k-$70k for a Model 3 that is built below industry standard and yet with dazzling numbers and bells and whistles. And the $35k SR will probably be a long long wait away.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...27468439?utm_source=markets&utm_medium=ingest
https://markets.businessinsider.com...icant-fit-and-finish-issues-2018-8-1027480762


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Also there is another WSJ article today about Tesla's finance. The numbers quoted are:

"Tesla is under increasing pressure to generate cash after burning through $1.8 billion in the first six months of this year. The company has about $1.3 billion in *convertible debt due in November and March*. It had $3 billion in accounts payable and just $2.2 billion in cash on hand as of June 30. Including capitalized leases, long-term debt tops $11 billion, according to FactSet."

The article cited two decisions made in 2016 causing Tesla big problems, namely, announcing(and subsequently rushing) Model 3, and merging Solar City and its $3 billion debt into Tesla.

There were posts suggesting market speculators trying to pull down an American success story. That can be true, but strong companies do not easily get pushed around, right?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-tw...tesla-into-trouble-1535103002#comments_sector


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> So WSJ analysts are impressed by Model 3 electronics and powertrain, but found significant fit and finish and manufacturing issue, with no easy fixes.
> 
> The article also commented that Tesla will lose $6k on each 35k SR sold due to the military grade electronics and such.
> 
> ...


This is a serious issue for the model 3. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.autoblog.com/amp/2018/08/21/tesla-model-3-reworked-report/

As for the ipace
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/08/24/jaguar-i-pace-laguna-seca-record-ev-tesla/

The Audi etron sounds promising check this video out it from carwow https://youtu.be/vrYRJ9TuaX0

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

Tesla has pushed the envelope in EV tech, but IMO the big manufacturers will soon surpass the Tesla as segment leader. People assume the big guys have been sitting around, twiddling their thumbs. Bravo for Tesla, but they are very far from killing anything. Just wait until products from other brands start coming out of the pipeline. There must be at least 20 EV cars coming from the German brands alone in the next 3-5 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

The I Pace looks to be a terrific EV. Here***8217;s where Tesla has the advantage. From the Car and Driver review: ***8220;Jaguar, like the rest of the established auto industry has no answer to Tesla***8217;s Supercharger network.***8221; It goes on to say that owners either charge at home or rely on a fragmented network of 3rd party providers in order to access charging that is slower than offered by Tesla. When you buy a Tesla you get access to an existing and quickly growing charging network.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

vw2bmw said:


> Tesla has pushed the envelope in EV tech, but IMO the big manufacturers will soon surpass the Tesla as segment leader. People assume the big guys have been sitting around, twiddling their thumbs. Bravo for Tesla, but they are very far from killing anything. Just wait until products from other brands start coming out of the pipeline. There must be at least 20 EV cars coming from the German brands alone in the next 3-5 years.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Agreed. I said this earlier.

BMW's i3 is hideous. Now there are indications of a coming iX3 and the new 3er will offer an EV Version as well. Smart move.

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## Jamolay (May 11, 2014)

I kind of like the i3, not hideous, maybe nicer looking than the fiat 500e I just bought. 
What killed the i3 for me was rear wheel drive (Colorado) and cost. Even the off lease 2015 i3s are $20k around here. The fiat 500e was $11k with only 9k miles. It is fwd and a fun car to drive. Not like a leaf which feels like riding a bicycle through molasses.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Jamolay said:


> I kind of like the i3, not hideous, maybe nicer looking than the fiat 500e I just bought.
> What killed the i3 for me was rear wheel drive (Colorado) and cost. Even the off lease 2015 i3s are $20k around here. The fiat 500e was $11k with only 9k miles. It is fwd and a fun car to drive. Not like a leaf which feels like riding a bicycle through molasses.


Yay Colorado!

You avoid that Hail? I worry about my '18 X3 with its pano roof when we move back in a few years

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Michael Schott said:


> The I Pace looks to be a terrific EV. Here's where Tesla has the advantage. From the Car and Driver review: "Jaguar, like the rest of the established auto industry has no answer to *Tesla's Supercharger network.*" It goes on to say that owners either charge at home or rely on a fragmented network of 3rd party providers in order to access charging that is slower than offered by Tesla. When you buy a Tesla you get access to an existing and quickly growing charging network.


Looks well populated *[click here]* until ya zoom in.

San Francisco has exactly ZERO
Marin County has exactly ZERO

Silicon Valley's flush, but near the Tesla factory: Exactly TWO

'Cept near Tesla, East Bay has exactly ZERO

Still *very* thin....but compared to non-existant BMW network, marvelously available!


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

At some point in time the manufacturers will get their collective heads out of their butts & declare a standard for the plug/system just like the common gas tank opening.

This should enable service stations to add generic supercharger systems as a regular pay to use item like the gas pump.

Historically more cars drove more gas stations drove more cars at the start of the ICE age.:thumbup:


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> At some point in time the manufacturers will get their collective heads out of their butts & declare a standard for the plug/system just like the common gas tank opening.


Look for Federal regulation, 2020 earliest.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> The I Pace looks to be a terrific EV. Here's where Tesla has the advantage. From the Car and Driver review: "Jaguar, like the rest of the established auto industry has no answer to Tesla's Supercharger network." It goes on to say that owners either charge at home or rely on a fragmented network of 3rd party providers in order to access charging that is slower than offered by Tesla. When you buy a Tesla you get access to an existing and quickly growing charging network.


Tesla supercharger network is not that vast, in our locales the backbone charging network currently is scattered across parking lots (private or public).

And EVs in general still have issues with battery degradation from fast charging and such, so the prudent usage model is still home charging for now, and that neutralizes Telsa's edge.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

vw2bmw said:


> Tesla has pushed the envelope in EV tech, but IMO the big manufacturers will soon surpass the Tesla as segment leader. People assume the big guys have been sitting around, twiddling their thumbs. Bravo for Tesla, but they are very far from killing anything. Just wait until products from other brands start coming out of the pipeline. There must be at least 20 EV cars coming from the German brands alone in the next 3-5 years.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


To carry on this theme:

My Excellence Magazine showed up this week and had an interesting but short article on the Porsche Mission E, now "Taycan" prototype. While it's still a one off prototype, a journalist was allowed to drive it around the LA hills. Over all impression was very favorable and the pictures of the interior look very nice.

Even as a prototype it still has the Porsche DNA and drives like a Porsche. Also, Porsche has invested over $7 Billion in electric vehicle technology and a new manufacturing facility for the Taycan. Porsche is aiming straight for the top end of Tesla's market and will make a dent starting in late 2019.

Elon's runway for survivablity is getting shorter each day. Time is not on his side.


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

bmwexpat said:


> To carry on this theme:
> 
> My Excellence Magazine showed up this week and had an interesting but short article on the Porsche Mission E, now "Taycan" prototype. While it's still a one off prototype, a journalist was allowed to drive it around the LA hills. Over all impression was very favorable and the pictures of the interior look very nice.
> 
> ...


I'm a huge fan of Tesla but I agree with your last statement. He is a true pioneer though.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Tesla supercharger network is not that vast, in our locales the backbone charging network currently is scattered across parking lots (private or public).
> 
> And EVs in general still have issues with battery degradation from fast charging and such, so the prudent usage model is still home charging for now, and that neutralizes Telsa's edge.


How is Jaguar's charging network? Or BMW's or GM's? That's the point. Tesla is years ahead of everyone in this regard.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Michael Schott said:


> How is Jaguar's charging network? Or BMW's or GM's? That's the point. Tesla is years ahead of everyone in this regard.


I agree with previous poster, manufacturer's exclusive charging networks will be quickly replaced by universal fast chargers at gas stations.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

sr5959 said:


> I agree with previous poster, manufacturer's exclusive charging networks will be quickly replaced by universal fast chargers at gas stations.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


I hope this happens. I don't know how quickly though. But it seems retail outlets and some companies are installing charging station. A movie theater I went to last night had dedicated spaces with chargers.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bmwexpat said:


> Even as a prototype it still has the Porsche DNA and drives like a Porsche. Also, *Porsche has invested over $7 Billion in electric vehicle technology* and a new manufacturing facility for the Taycan. Porsche is aiming straight for the top end of Tesla's market and will make a dent starting in late 2019.


Har! Show me Porsche, show me....


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

For me personally, I wouldn’t buy an EV unless it had at least 200 miles real world range, then virtually all my charging will be at home. We very rarely go long distances by car but if we did we’d just take my gf’s SUV. I think for the foreseeable future we wouldn’t get two EV’s, one would remain ICE.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

sr5959 said:


> I agree with previous poster, manufacturer***8217;s exclusive charging networks will be quickly replaced by universal fast chargers at gas stations.


Sooo you're saying gas stations will be rebuilt as parking garages w/entertainment lounges? No more than half charge allowed?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> How is Jaguar's charging network? Or BMW's or GM's? That's the point. Tesla is years ahead of everyone in this regard.


Lots of local commercial parking lots have DC fast chargers that BMW/Jag/GM/etc,etc can use.

E.g. the closest public parking structure to Levi's stadium have* 49*(yes, 49) DC fast chargers, that is more than 4 times the capacity of the Fremont factory supercharger(only has *11* spots).

The Telsa supercharger network is mainly a marketing tool.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> E.g. the closest public parking structure to Levi's stadium have* 49*(yes, 49) DC fast chargers, that is more than 4 times the capacity of the Fremont factory supercharger(only has *11* spots).


Encouraging! What's the parking structure charger power capacity?

Good bet Tesla folk know where every high cap charger is....and which are busiest.

Gotta wonder what an EV pilot's gonna do when the power's out, few days. Happens.

.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> I agree with previous poster, manufacturer's exclusive charging networks will be quickly replaced by universal fast chargers at gas stations.


My thinking is the parking lots are the ones that will provide the most ports, and some gas stations will add the charging ports too. And building new charging stations are cheaper than gas stations, as there is no need for the huge underground oil tanks.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Encouraging! What's the parking structure charger power capacity?
> .


OK, so only one level 3, the rest are level 2. 

It claims that all 49 ports can charge simultaneously.

In City of SC (where the stadium is), there are 65 level 2, and 5 level 3 that the city operates, there are numerous other 3rd parties scattered all over.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Lots of local commercial parking lots have DC fast chargers that BMW/Jag/GM/etc,etc can use.
> 
> E.g. the closest public parking structure to Levi's stadium have* 49*(yes, 49) DC fast chargers, that is more than 4 times the capacity of the Fremont factory supercharger(only has *11* spots).
> 
> The Telsa supercharger network is mainly a marketing tool.


They are fast chargers not Superchargers. Big difference.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Lots of local commercial parking lots have DC fast chargers that BMW/Jag/GM/etc,etc can use.
> 
> E.g. the closest public parking structure to Levi's stadium have* 49*(yes, 49) DC fast chargers, that is more than 4 times the capacity of the Fremont factory supercharger(only has *11* spots).
> 
> The Telsa supercharger network is mainly a marketing tool.


They are fast chargers not Superchargers. Big difference. Level 2 charger (240v) means 4-6 hours for an 80% charge vs 30 minutes for a Supercharger. Level 3 are much quicker but as you state, far less common.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> They are fast chargers not Superchargers. Big difference. Level 2 charger (240v) means 4-6 hours for an 80% charge vs 30 minutes for a Supercharger. Level 3 are much quicker but as you state, far less common.


As Tesla owners find out, Level 3/Supercharging is not good for battery longevity, so my take is the primary usage mode of EV with current battery tech is still home charging.

That can change in the future, including non-Tesla 3rd party companies start to expand/convert into Level 3, plus next gen battery tech that can take the abuse from Level 3/Supercharger.

For now, a range of 200-300 miles of range from Leaf/Bolt/Jag/BMW/Porsche charging at home should work just fine.

My thinking is at some point Tesla will recognize their own network of supercharger will be best utilized as non-exclusive to just Tesla for revenues.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> As Tesla owners find out, Level 3/Supercharging is not good for battery longevity, so my take is the primary usage mode of EV with current battery tech is still home charging.
> 
> That can change in the future, including non-Tesla 3rd party companies start to expand/convert into Level 3, plus next gen battery tech that can take the abuse from Level 3/Supercharger.
> 
> ...


The availability of Superchargers makes a Tesla far more viable for a longer trip. Yes the Supercharger network is not yet as widespread as it needs to be but it exists and does not for any other brand. You are in denial. Tesla is in another league at this time and in the near future (probably 4-5 years) before another company comes close to catching up. The I-Pace is a terrific SUV and the first real competitor to Tesla but Tesla has already been doing this for a long time.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> The availability of Superchargers makes a Tesla far more viable for a longer trip. Yes the Supercharger network is not yet as widespread as it needs to be but it exists and does not for any other brand. You are in denial. Tesla is in another league at this time and in the near future (probably 4-5 years) before another company comes close to catching up. The I-Pace is a terrific SUV and the first real competitor to Tesla but Tesla has already been doing this for a long time.


The denial can be both ways.

E.g. a friend just picked us up for dinner in his Leaf, and currently it is charging at a CHAdeMO port which apparently is Level 3. My garage has no EV, but those in the know will find them.

The key to note is, when demand increases, and when it makes business sense to populate the landscape with Level 3, it will happen as needed.

And back to my point of home charging, long distance travel and Tesla's assumed edge of supercharging network is irrelevant for household with 2-4 cars(just like many festers), one of which(or more) is ICE.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

namelessman said:


> My thinking is at some point Tesla will recognize their own network of supercharger will be best utilized as non-exclusive to just Tesla for revenues.


Seems to me the Tesla Network could be a a pretty good tool to leverage when the companies start talking about a common standard.

There are charging points a the Walmart near my house in the states.

Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Seems to me the Tesla Network could be a a pretty good tool to leverage when the companies start talking about a common standard.
> 
> There are charging points a the Walmart near my house in the states.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


Are those charging points close to your Walmart Level 2 or Level 3?

Michael's point is that Tesla is way ahead of Level 3-ish fast charging network, my assertion is that there are non-Tesla Level 3 around for those who look for them.

In fact, it was just examined to me that both CHAdeMO and CCS are Level 3, and a quick search said within 5 miles of our current location, there are 22 of them. 

And that is not including the 5 Level 3 ran by CIiy of SC(where Levi's stadium is).


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

It’s not even a Tesla charging point. However there are multiple plugs on it.

I’ll have to look closer when I’m on home leave


Sent from my iPhone 7+ using Tapatalk


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The denial can be both ways.
> 
> E.g. a friend just picked us up for dinner in his Leaf, and currently it is charging at a CHAdeMO port which apparently is Level 3. My garage has no EV, but those in the know will find them.
> 
> ...


You missed the point. I think you are right but currently and for at least the next few years, Tesla has huge advantages.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Har! Show me Porsche, show me....


I beleve Porsche a lot more than Tesla when it comes to release and production. Porsche letteraly prints money for the Volkswagen Group.

Hoping to see the Taycan prototype at Rennsport at Laguna Seca in September. It's a true gathering of the faithful.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Michael Schott said:


> You missed the point. I think you are right but currently and for at least the next few years, Tesla has huge advantages.


The Porsche, BMW, MB & Audi names have huge marketing advantages of their own + corporate stability with no dramatics. The window on Tesla is closing much faster then you think.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> The Porsche, BMW, MB & Audi names have huge marketing advantages of their own + corporate stability with no dramatics. The window on Tesla is closing much faster then you think.


As far as charging network, even Tesla now has a CHAdeMO adapter(no CCS adapter yet) for Tesla owners to purchase, that says the 3rd party networks are expanding fast too.

Musk is adamant that other manufacturers can use superchargers only if they invest in supercharger network.

With the advent and rapid expansion of non-tesla networks, the Porsche/BMW/MB/Audi are not in dire disadvantages even without Musk's cooperation, esp. in populated urban areas.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bear-avhistory said:


> The Porsche, BMW, MB & Audi names have huge marketing advantages of their own + corporate stability with no dramatics. The window on Tesla is closing much faster then you think.


The 100's of thousands of Model 3 owners and those waiting for delivery don't seem bothered by these dramatics. I really don't understand why you think they are in trouble.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bmwexpat said:


> I beleve Porsche a lot more than Tesla when it comes to release and production. Porsche letteraly prints money for the Volkswagen Group.
> 
> Hoping to see the Taycan prototype at Rennsport at Laguna Seca in September. It's a true gathering of the faithful.


Porsche and others hopefully do not rush release like Tesla, and test their products well enough to protect their brand names and customer loyalties.

E.g. Jag put at least 1.5 million miles on their i-Pace test mules beyond going mainstream.

https://electrek.co/2018/02/26/jaguar-i-pace-all-electric-launch/

The problem of i-Pace now is dealer support, e.g. there is no demo car at dealerships right now.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> The 100's of thousands of Model 3 owners and those waiting for delivery don't seem bothered by these dramatics. I really don't understand why you think they are in trouble.


There are no 100's of thousands of model 3 on the road, yet.

Tesla is tight lip of how many of the pending 400k+ reservations are for SR.

As WSJ said, Tesla will lose $6k on each SR [email protected]$35k given the military grade electronics and powertrain of Model 3, and there is no enough pricing leverage that Tesla can exert to lower prices from suppliers. That can very well be the Archilles heel of Model 3.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> That is great feedback. :thumbup:
> 
> My local dealer they had one for showroom but was then taken away, it might have been the same "Prototype" unit that is now in your area.
> 
> So is i-Pace a competitor for Model 3?


I thought it***8217;s a direct competitor to the Model X.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Michael Schott said:


> I thought it***8217;s a direct competitor to the Model X.


No. Doesn't have the same interior/trunk space and also looks much more sporty.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> I thought it's a direct competitor to the Model X.


i-Pace is an inch longer and 4.5 inches taller than Model 3, and is 14 inches shorter than Model X.

So it is somewhere in between then.

https://insideevs.com/jaguar-i-pace-tesla-model-x-or-model-3/


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> i-Pace is an inch longer and 4.5 inches taller than Model 3, and is 14 inches shorter than Model X.
> 
> So it is somewhere in between then.
> 
> https://insideevs.com/jaguar-i-pace-tesla-model-x-or-model-3/


It's an SUV with almost an identical wheelbase to the X. No matter, it weighs half a ton more than the 3 and is at least $20k more expensive. An I version of the XE would compete vs the 3.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> It***8217;s an SUV with almost an identical wheelbase to the X. No matter, it weighs half a ton more than the 3 and is at least $20k more expensive. An I version of the XE would compete vs the 3.


Model X

Length 198.3"
Wheelbase 116.7"
Width 89.4"
curb weight:
100D - 5,421 lbs
P100D - 5,531 lbs

i-Pace

Length 186.26"
Wheelbase 113.15"
Width 85.47"
Weight 4700lbs

Model 3

Length: 184.8***8221;
Width: 76.1***8221; (72.8***8221; with mirrors folded)
Wheelbase: 113.2***8221;
Curb weight:
3814 lbs. (Model 3 Long Range RWD)
4072 lbs. (Model 3 Long Range DM)

From the weight and wheelbase/length, the i-Pace is closer to Model 3 DM than to Model 3 instead of Model X(which is a beast compared to i-Pace).

And i-Pace 0-60 is also closer to Model 3 DM than Model X.

Model 3 is a narrower car than i-Pace for sure, with 50 miles of extra range, but their 0-60 times are close.

In contrast Model X and i-Pace has similar range, but 0-60 i-Pace outperforms Model X.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Bottom line. The I Pace is an SUV and the 3 a sedan. And one is at least $20k less expensive. They are not direct competitors.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Bottom line. The I Pace is an SUV and the 3 a sedan. And one is at least $20k less expensive. They are not direct competitors.


Model 3 and S have same height of 56.5 inches(1440mm), similar to F30.

Model 5 is 66.3 inches tall, similar to G05 X5 at 69 inches.

With that matrix, i-Pace at 61.6 inches is a *crossover, but not SUV*.

Price wise, it is true i-Pace is S and X territory.

But a Model [email protected]$54k versus i-Pace(standard dual motor) is $15k apart, not $20k.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Some pics...

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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Definitely more of a crossover than SUV, it's quite low. Not a people-carrier like the X.

The interior alone is worth $15k more than a Model 3.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> Definitely more of a crossover than SUV, it's quite low. Not a people-carrier like the X.
> 
> The interior alone is worth $15k more than a Model 3.


At those price points, for sure i-Pace can grab Model S and X, and possibly Model 3 DM, market shares. Jag dealers just need to carry inventory.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

namelessman said:


> At those price points, for sure i-Pace can grab Model S and X, and possibly Model 3 DM, market shares. Jag dealers just need to carry inventory.


The salesman told me the first allocations are ordered, realistically it will be the start of 2019 when they'll be available on the dealer lots.

He gave me a full brochure too the specs are really high even for the base model. I don't think it'll require an extra 20% in options to get a decent spec.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The official numbers have not come out yet, but it looks like Model 3 is projected to steamroll combined BMW US + Canada passenger car(not just 3-series) shipments in August. 

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-outsold-bmw-passenger-cars/


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> At those price points, for sure *i-Pace can grab Model S and X, and possibly Model 3 DM, market shares*. Jag dealers just need to carry inventory.


With Prince Charles ridin' high, most folks think: What's not to like?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> With Prince Charles ridin' high, most folks think: What's not to like?


"The prince is no stranger to electric cars, either. He also test-drove a Tesla Model S, with a view to buying one, but preferred the handling of the Jaguar."


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## stylinexpat (May 23, 2004)

Once these cars can go for 500 miles before a charge is needed I will be more interested in them. 300 seems way to short for me. 300 is mainly city driving too at lower speeds. Highway driving at 80+ MPH and those numbers drop quickly.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

stylinexpat said:


> Once these cars can go for 500 miles before a charge is needed I will be more interested in them. 300 seems way to short for me. 300 is mainly city driving too at lower speeds. Highway driving at 80+ MPH and those numbers drop quickly.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Would like to see 450+miles @ 75 average which includes some slow traffic but mostly 80/85 over the interstate. With that range charge time would not be a deal breaker for me because I would be done for the day or at least a few hours.

Right now using 15 gallons gone as a refuel point I can make a round trip to the beach 390 miles do some driving there & never refuel. Normal practice is to top up when I get there because you never know when the evac order will come & you need to get out of Dodge quickly.

Typically my longest drive is 483 miles NC to NJ which I can make on one tank depending on the traffic at DC which I like to make in one bite at night.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

stylinexpat said:


> Once these cars can go for 500 miles before a charge is needed I will be more interested in them. 300 seems way to short for me. 300 is mainly city driving too at lower speeds. Highway driving at 80+ MPH and those numbers drop quickly.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


The current gen of battery density and 1000+lb battery pack and 4000-5000lb curb weight maxes out 300-ish miles of range.

To get to 500 miles with current tech, the only solution is to increase the floor plan and pile on weight.

In my mind, EV does not quite make sense with current battery tech. Maybe 50 miles of pure electric, then the rest of 300-400 miles with fossil fuel, is the optimal mix with current tech.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

This actually looks rather spiffy..
https://youtu.be/PF_WUF2lOsg

"Magnum this is a private line...clear off!"


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

namelessman said:


> "The prince is no stranger to electric cars, either. He also test-drove a Tesla Model S, with a view to buying one, but preferred the handling of the Jaguar."


As he should! Jaguar may be owned by
Ford now, but its heritage is 100% old country.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## PK2348 (Jan 14, 2013)

vw2bmw said:


> As he should! Jaguar may be owned by
> Ford now, but its heritage is 100% old country.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


tata motors
Look it up


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> i-Pace was fast, did not overheat, and almost went mid-air at [email protected]:30.


240 mi max range, Granny style.

0-60 4.5 sec....Ludicrous....not....

It's yer father's sports car. SUV. Bees knees family car, too!


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

Also, base price $80K.

Guessing $100K fully dressed.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Pickup of my deep blue metallic dual motor Tesla Model 3 with premium ultra-white interior is scheduled for just a couple of weeks from now.

Will be providing a few comparison pictures with the 340xi since I will have both cars for about a week before lease turn in on the 340xi.

Will be starting a thread to answer questions about the experience of switching from BMWs premier non-M four door sedan to Tesla's premier non-P four door sedan shortly after I take delivery. On paper the acceleration and handling of these cars is almost identical, I've never driven a dual motor Tesla so am looking forward to the direct comparison.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

Jaguar debuts electric SUV whose main appeal is style.

*Confidence will be restored* @ Tesla.

Gentlemen, call your brokers.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

A coworker did pick up a DM two weeks ago, his previous car was a 2000 civic, and obviously Model 3 is a big leap for him. The lunch crowd rode in it a few times, but the rear head room was a bit tight, so we switched back to the X. 

His comment is that with $7500 fed and $2500 CA credits, the battery is basically free, and $44k net cost is not much more than a decent minivan(his choice was to retire his civic or odyssey), but for sure he would not have paid $54k for it.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

voip-ninja said:


> Pickup of my deep blue metallic dual motor Tesla Model 3 with premium ultra-white interior is scheduled for just a couple of weeks from now.
> 
> Will be providing a few comparison pictures with the 340xi since I will have both cars for about a week before lease turn in on the 340xi.
> 
> Will be starting a thread to answer questions about the experience of switching from BMWs premier non-M four door sedan to Tesla's premier non-P four door sedan shortly after I take delivery. On paper the acceleration and handling of these cars is almost identical, I've never driven a dual motor Tesla so am looking forward to the direct comparison.


That's very exciting! Thanks so much for offering to share your experiences with us.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> i-Pace was fast, did not overheat, and almost went mid-air at [email protected]:30.
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHLLyQ4yIq4


The ipace has almost the same lap time around laguna seca as the model s p100d

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

BMW will soon debut an all-electric car with some level of autonomy. *Bah!* Compared to *[Volvo's concept]*, hard to compete.

And who needs Jaguar i-Pace when this bad boy hits tarmac? Not me - lovin' the snooze bed too.

Driving. Sooooo last century.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> A coworker did pick up a DM two weeks ago, his previous car was a 2000 civic, and obviously Model 3 is a big leap for him. The lunch crowd rode in it a few times, but the rear head room was a bit tight, so we switched back to the X.
> 
> His comment is that with $7500 fed and $2500 CA credits, the battery is basically free, and $44k net cost is not much more than a decent minivan(his choice was to retire his civic or odyssey), but for sure he would not have paid $54k for it.


Well we'll find out how many they can sell without incentives later next year.

Mine is $61,500 plus $1,200 delivery fee.

Quite spendy. $12,500 fed and state tax credits takes most of the sting out.

I expect next year they will sell a lot of SR versions with premium package ($40,000) and/or dual-motor ($40,000-$45,000) even without incentives.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Well we'll find out how many they can sell without incentives later next year.
> 
> Mine is $61,500 plus $1,200 delivery fee.
> 
> ...


$40k-$45k appears to be what most Model 3 owners at work spent, e.g.

LR RWD $49k - $10k = $39k + tax + fees
LR DM $54k - $10k = $44k + tax + fees

The first test for Model 3 will be Q1 2019, then Q3 2019, then Q1 2020, when incentives phases out.

Nonetheless the taxpayer subsidies are sweet for 3/X/S buyers. Up to Q2 2018, fed credit alone already amounts to $1.5B.

Starting Q3 2018, to Q4 2020, assuming Tesla can ship 300k cars annually, extra credit will pile up to $2B!!!

$3.5B subsidy is no chump change.

WSJ said Tesla will lose $6k for each $35k SR sold.

The main issue described by WSJ is that the military grade hardware in Model 3 is expensive, so either Tesla starts stripping down to contain costs for SR, or they need volume to drive down cost.

To get volume up though, Tesla needs the $35k price tag, but they can't sell below $41k. So it may become a chicken-and-egg conundrum.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Elk said:


> No question. Any executive who acts as Elon Musk is a major concern for investors and the electric vehicle market as a whole. And, incidentally, fascinating to watch.


Not to mention that that was the most expensive spliff ever lit up....valued at $265,000,000 (6.3% of Tesla's value in total shareholder equity) 

"Magnum this is a private line...clear off!"


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> $40k-$45k appears to be what most Model 3 owners at work spent, e.g.
> 
> LR RWD $49k - $10k = $39k + tax + fees
> LR DM $54k - $10k = $44k + tax + fees


Your numbers are off because the majority of buyers right now are opting for auto-pilot which is another $5K... maybe you should find out how many of your coworkers bought that option.

I think that the sweet spot is a higher $$ than you estimate and I think that what buyers are willing to pay for a Model 3 is higher than you think.

As I said, we'll know more as subsidies dry up and Tesla introduces less expensive versions of the Model 3.



> The first test for Model 3 will be Q1 2019, then Q3 2019, then Q1 2020, when incentives phases out.


That's right but Tesla have many levers they can pull to keep demand going. There is already a massive back-log of lower cost $35,000 Model 3s. How many buyers will purchase the $35,000 version while there's still a subsidy if they also have to purchase it with the $5K premium package? Tens of thousands probably, maybe a 100k. Many will buy the $40,000 version if they are still getting a $3500 or $1750 federal credit plus state credits rather than holding out for pure stripper $35,000 version with zero subsidies.



> WSJ said Tesla will lose $6k for each $35k SR sold.


Other (more credible) experts such as Munro have already said a $35,000 Model 3 will be profitable. Comes down to whether you believe someone like Sandy Munro who has over 30 years of industry experience building and tearing down cars or if you believe someone from WSJ with an axe to grind against Tesla.



> The main issue described by WSJ is that the military grade hardware in Model 3 is expensive, so either Tesla starts stripping down to contain costs for SR, or they need volume to drive down cost.


Please cite your source for this quote as it looks sketchy. The automotive electronics in the Model 3 are nowhere near the highest cost of the car. The battery is extremely expensive and Tesla's cost to build the battery continues to go down.

They are also introducing their own GPU next year which means they will no longer be buying their silicon from Nvidia & Intel which will also save them $$.



> To get volume up though, Tesla needs the $35k price tag, but they can't sell below $41k. So it may become a chicken-and-egg conundrum.


You have a very pointed opinion about this and don't look at it rationally.

You say they can't sell below $41K and are basing that on one article you read, when there are others who did full teardown of the car that say it is profitable at $35K.

Tesla may or may not be able to sell the $35,000 car and make a profit. They know this better than either you or I. So far they have not indicated that they won't sell the $35,000 version, only that it will be the last version to arrive.

This makes sense... the longer a manufacturer makes a model the more costs drop. Additionally Tesla have already said that the short range 3 will have a new less expensive battery design that is lighter and cheaper to manufacturer. This is the kind of thing that eggheads at WSJ can't possibly have insight into since they don't understand Tesla's battery technology.

Tesla strategy will be to introduce the SR Model 3 very late this year or early next year with a cheaper to build battery pack. That car will almost definitely be bundled with $5K option package and/or dual-motor as mandatory options initially. This will absolutely make the car profitable.

At some point down the line Tesla will introduce the promised "stripper" Model 3, in black, with black cloth upholstery, for $35,000. They may or may not turn a profit on it. They may or may not build it for more than a quarter or two before retiring it in favor of versions with more options, dual motor only, etc.

I'll put it to you this way.... what do you think the average selling price of a BMW 3 or Audi A4 or Mercedes C class is? It's a lot more than $35,000 and BMW/Merc/Audi sell tens of thousands of them every year.

Tesla still won't have real competition, where cars are being built in high volumes, with mature technology and a mature charging infrastructure for at least another couple of years. At that point we'll have a better idea of the competitive landscape but Tesla will already have a pretty good foothold in their 3 most critical markets, USA, Western Europe and China.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Your numbers are off because the majority of buyers right now are opting for auto-pilot which is another $5K... maybe you should find out how many of your coworkers bought that option.


Our building has 2(one RWD and one DM), both are base with no auto-pilot, as the owners said they are cost conscious plus skeptical about self-driving for now(they may enable later at extra cost).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> You have a very pointed opinion about this and don't look at it rationally.


The key point appears to be how much Tesla can convince those who originally want $35k version to pay up. It is unclear how many are still on reservation list, and how many of those are adamant about paying no more than $35k(which after $10k incentive is $25k territory, or Accord I4 category).

As far as shipping SR, if customers keep paying for $49k-$54k base cars, there will be no point to rush SR. Trouble arises only when LR/DM/P cannot mop up the current production volume, and this will play out in the coming Qs.

And in that regard, fed subsidies and tax money are very important(and generous), it allows Tesla(or any EV maker) a runway of up to 1.5 years(after hitting 200k) to sort out the cost structure and survive. Other countries may not be as generous, e.g. HK cut off its EV subsidy and Tesla sales has since died out in that locale.

As far as WSJ and/or other EV experts, my take is that they do have things to sell and/or axes to grind, so the truth that matters to customers usually is somewhere in between.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The key point appears to be how much Tesla can convince those who originally want $35k version to pay up. It is unclear how many are still on reservation list, and how many of those are adamant about paying no more than $35k(which after $10k incentive is $25k territory, or Accord I4 category).
> 
> As far as shipping SR, if customers keep paying for $49k-$54k base cars, there will be no point to rush SR. Trouble arises only when LR/DM/P cannot mop up the current production volume, and this will play out in the coming Qs.
> 
> ...


If you've driven a Tesla Model 3 and feel that in base trim it should compete with a Honda I4 Accord, well, not much I can do to help you out.

Tesla appears to be employing the same strategy with Model 3 that they did with Model S. They offered a stripped down Model S with a tiny battery and no options at a price of $55,000 before incentives in order to get people to put a deposit down. They then introduced Model S with more options but for those buyers who held out they eventually did deliver a small number (under 1,000 units I believe) of the stripped down models and then they killed them. I don't think Tesla will be offering a $35,000 zero option Tesla Model 3 for very long, but they will ship a small number for the holdouts to fulfill their promise of a $35,000 starting price.... doesn't mean they will be making it 12-18 months from now. Tesla will point out that buyers who delay buying the $40K or $45K version with PUP or dual motor are throwing tax dollars away. It's a smart strategy since it allows Tesla to move product and leaves tax payers on the hook for the discounts, taking the sting out of people not getting the $35,000 price they maybe wanted.

Your argument is that Tesla will not be able to sell enough Model 3s without incentives to survive. Keep in mind that Tesla have not even introduced Model 3 to any markets outside of US & Canada. I would imagine that European demand will be enough to absorb any surplus production from the factory in Fremont for at least the next couple of years. Tesla SR should compete well with EVs that Europeans are already buying in decent numbers.

The root of nearly all of your comments in this thread is that the Tesla Model 3 is a $40K car parading around with a $50K price tag and it simply won't sell without subsidies. Having driven one I strongly disagree with you. There is no other EV on the market with the long range, advanced telematics (auto pilot, super high speed touchscreen interface), fairly good interior, non weird-mobile exterior styling.... period. There simply is no competition in this space, even after we've heard for years how other manufacturers were going to kill Tesla.

Tesla also remains the only ones who have a widely deployed fast charging infrastructure that has good accessibility and works. You can pull up in your 75kw Model 3 with 10% of the battery left, and leave the station with it charged to 80% in about an hour which is simply remarkable. When the Level 3 super-charging arrives next year, which the Model 3 is supposed to be compatible with, this time will be cut another 20-30%. You'll be able to top up the battery very quickly which overcomes a hurdle that so many buyers have which is range anxiety and being able to use the car for occasional longer distance travel.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Addendum;

I concede that there are a small number of angry people who reserved the $35,000 base model Tesla and believed they would get this car with the $7500 federal rebate. Tesla never said this would happen. Will the person who thought they would get a Tesla for less than a Toyota Camry be angry and seething with resentment at Tesla for not fulfilling what they perceived as an obligation to deliver this to them? Probably, but I don't think there are enough of those people out there to matter. If they get angry at Tesla they can go spend the $35K on a Nissan Leaf.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

voip-ninja said:


> Addendum;
> 
> I concede that there are a small number of angry people who reserved the $35,000 base model Tesla and believed they would get this car with the $7500 federal rebate. Tesla never said this would happen. Will the person who thought they would get a Tesla for less than a Toyota Camry be angry and seething with resentment at Tesla for not fulfilling what they perceived as an obligation to deliver this to them? Probably, but I don't think there are enough of those people out there to matter. If they get angry at Tesla they can go spend the $35K on a Nissan Leaf.


Maybe Tesla should not have taken their $1000 dollars with a $35K bait & switch. Going back on the threads here there were quite a few expecting a $35K car. I don't remember many or any of the smart people here trying to dissuade them of their mistaken belief.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> Maybe Tesla should not have taken their $1000 dollars with a $35K bait & switch. Going back on the threads here there were quite a few expecting a $35K car. I don't remember many or any of the smart people here trying to dissuade them of their mistaken belief.


Customers are the one that make the choice with their money. When the expected $35k offering is missing in action, customers move on, given alternatives start to show up.

Tesla has not disclosed the size of reservation list lately(July press release said reservation was 420000), which is closed off these days(and SR is unavailable to configure), so it is unclear how many still hold out for $35k SR. Maybe the next quarterly earnings will have updated info.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Customers are the one that make the choice with their money. When the expected $35k offering is missing in action, customers move on, given alternatives start to show up.
> 
> Tesla has not disclosed the size of reservation list lately(July press release said reservation was 420000), which is closed off these days(and SR is unavailable to configure), so it is unclear how many still hold out for $35k SR. Maybe the next quarterly earnings will have updated info.


With Trump's economy, $60k not at all unreachable. Most cars I like are at least $70k.


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## TXBonedaddy (Sep 20, 2017)

I was talking with the owner of the tint shop when I was getting the wifes car done, and she said they had done three model 3s so far, and each one had different window dimensions for the tint - none matched. Wonder how many parts are like that, and how repairs are gonna go down the road?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

TXBonedaddy said:


> I was talking with the owner of the tint shop when I was getting the wifes car done, and she said they had done three model 3s so far, and each one had different window dimensions for the tint - none matched. Wonder how many parts are like that, and how repairs are gonna go down the road?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


The Model 3 owners at work said local tint shops charge $500 rear glass roof alone as there is no standard piece.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> With Trump's economy, $60k not at all unreachable. Most cars I like are at least $70k.


That is what Model 3 is retrenching towards, esp. when taxpayer subsidies are still available.

This leaves a window for others(e.g. 200-mile range Leaf) to expand foothold at $35k. That strategy may work in the short term, but can prove costly at some point.

It is not that Tesla has a choice, as Musk already said a new battery pack is in development to address low-cost Model 3. In other words, $35k won't happen until Model 3 2.0.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> With Trump's economy, $60k not at all unreachable. Most cars I like are at least $70k.


If all these tariffs go through it might be over sooner than later

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> If all these tariffs go through it might be over sooner than later
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


That is the macro risk for Tesla, since the $50k+ segment will be hit harder than $25k-$35k one, and Tesla does not have time and money like BMW/Audi/MB to outlast the next downturn.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

eazy said:


> If all these tariffs go through it might be over sooner than later


We'll be fine - Wall St. not even slightly concerned. China can't like it much - check the Shanghai Composite.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> We'll be fine - Wall St. not even slightly concerned. China can't like it much - check the Shanghai Composite.


It other countries besides China. Don't judge things by Wall Street

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

eazy said:


> It other countries besides China. Don't judge things by Wall Street


This I can tell you:


Stock markets will crash in 2016!
Stock markets will crash in 2017!
Stock markets will crash as much as 70% *this year!*
Obama's said the good times are all his doing! Refers to himself over 100 times in speech!
Tariffs will doom the Bull Market! Going to Hades in a hand basket!
A number of ecological tipping points have been passed! Environmental devastation arriving Soon! Soon! Soon!

In other news, we run out of oil in:


1939
1952
1958
1976
1992
2020

Be prudent....prep....it's happening!

But is there a point? AlGore said we're looking down the barrel of a gun, what with *Global Warming!* As *his *tipping points have been tripped, there may be no hope!

.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

bear-avhistory said:


> Maybe Tesla should not have taken their $1000 dollars with a $35K bait & switch. Going back on the threads here there were quite a few expecting a $35K car. I don't remember many or any of the smart people here trying to dissuade them of their mistaken belief.


It's not a bait and switch if that car is eventually available.

Also the deposit is fully refundable.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

TXBonedaddy said:


> I was talking with the owner of the tint shop when I was getting the wifes car done, and she said they had done three model 3s so far, and each one had different window dimensions for the tint - none matched. Wonder how many parts are like that, and how repairs are gonna go down the road?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


That sounds like either multiple suppliers of a part or the windows are the same size but installation method results in slight differences from fitment that cause the exposed dimensions to vary.

Still something to look out for apparently.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> This I can tell you:
> 
> 
> Stock markets will crash in 2016!
> ...


You need to learn basic economics that tariffs are bad

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## TXBonedaddy (Sep 20, 2017)

eazy said:


> You need to learn basic economics that tariffs are bad
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Not if your opponent is much more dependent on exports than you are. The currency drop has made their commodities much more expensive for them all. We were already being charged to do business there, for the most part, and China simply cannot affect us as we can them in this matter. Economic theory is not law, and I have seen supposed truths debunked many times over the years...

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

eazy said:


> You need to learn basic economics that tariffs are bad


In the long run.....restrains trade. Can they be used as a short term bargaining chips? Poss 20% tariff on German vehicles made an impression.

What about increased domestic taxation?


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

TXBonedaddy said:


> Not if your opponent is much more dependent on exports than you are. The currency drop has made their commodities much more expensive for them all. We were already being charged to do business there, for the most part, and China simply cannot affect us as we can them in this matter. Economic theory is not law, and I have seen supposed truths debunked many times over the years...


True. This trade war was won before it began.


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> In the long run.....restrains trade. Can they be used as a short term bargaining chips? Poss 20% tariff on German vehicles made an impression.
> 
> What about increased domestic taxation?


The German tariff did not start. Basically Only 2 car announcements were made due to tariffs.
1.no focus wagon for the USA.
2. Production for the us spec xc60 is being move back to Europe

As for Tesla case if a trade war went ahead with China they will seriously be hurt. They will lose out on the biggest EV market. 
Tesla has said that a China plant is coming but they have not broken ground.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

TXBonedaddy said:


> Not if your opponent is much more dependent on exports than you are. The currency drop has made their commodities much more expensive for them all. We were already being charged to do business there, for the most part, and China simply cannot affect us as we can them in this matter. Economic theory is not law, and I have seen supposed truths debunked many times over the years...
> 
> Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


Tariffs for agriculture is already effecting us

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Please keep any tariff conversations in this thread to the effect it may have on BMW and in this thread Tesla and other EV manufacturers.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

eazy said:


> The German tariff did not start. Basically Only 2 car announcements were made due to tariffs.
> 1.no focus wagon for the USA.
> 2. Production for the us spec xc60 is being move back to Europe
> 
> ...


China car sales drops due to trade war. That does not help Tesla.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...woes-u-s-trade-war-hit-buyers?srnd=markets-vp


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> China car sales drops due to trade war. That does not help Tesla.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...woes-u-s-trade-war-hit-buyers?srnd=markets-vp


Mike China is going to be the biggest market for ev's Tesla is miss out on that opportunity 
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/26/chinas-electric-car-sales-up-64-in-july/
Right now China auto market went down due to exponential growth In the past 10 years. There are over 40 Chinese auto manufacturers it was due to go down

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> China car sales drops due to trade war. That does not help Tesla.
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...woes-u-s-trade-war-hit-buyers?srnd=markets-vp


When is Tesla going to start to sell in China?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> When is Tesla going to start to sell in China?


Telsa sales in china was $2B in 2017.

https://electrek.co/2018/02/23/tesla-china-double-sales-expanded/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> We know which side you are on so I'm not sure you are a good judge of this topic. By the way there's nothing in my moderator role that says I can't offer my opinions.
> 
> If you try to be neutral, you will see that my posts attempt to be balanced and fair.


Neutral, balance, and fair are based on one's experience and knowledge.

E.g. system experts(many of them in my locales) that understand Tesla's BOM probably have better sense of Tesla's cost structures than EV tear-down experts that do not have similar hands-on experience.

E.g. those who breathe and live EV(legends of them around here) in a landscape of autonomous and EV/whatever upstarts/startups, may have different perspectives than those far far away at Michigan and Colorado.

And to be specific, questions like "Do you want Tesla to fail/succeed?" is not a question to ask in a neutral discussion of Tesla/Model 3 based on balance and fairness.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Neutral, balance, and fair are based on one's experience and knowledge.
> 
> E.g. system experts(many of them in my locales) that understand Tesla's BOM probably have better sense of Tesla's cost structures than EV tear-down experts that do not have similar hands-on experience.
> 
> ...


Where's the tear down BOM estimate article or blog post from one of these supposed "systems" experts you are referencing who understand Model 3 cost more than Someone like Munro or the Germans who did an analysis?

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8nhodw/model_3_teardown_in_germany_finds_that_teslas/


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

namelessman said:


> Neutral, balance, and fair are based on one's experience and knowledge.
> 
> E.g. system experts(many of them in my locales) that understand Tesla's BOM probably have better sense of Tesla's cost structures than EV tear-down experts that do not have similar hands-on experience.
> 
> ...


Agree:thumbup:


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Neutral, balance, and fair are based on one's experience and knowledge.
> 
> E.g. system experts(many of them in my locales) that understand Tesla's BOM probably have better sense of Tesla's cost structures than EV tear-down experts that do not have similar hands-on experience.
> 
> ...


There is no requirement for neutrality or fairness here. We are all welcome to give biased opinions as long as they are given in a respectful manner.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> There is no requirement for neutrality or fairness here. We are all welcome to give biased opinions as long as they are given in a respectful manner.


Agreed, hence balance or otherwise is irrelevant, as long as it is respectful. :thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Where***8217;s the tear down BOM estimate article or blog post from one of these supposed ***8220;systems***8221; experts you are referencing who understand Model 3 cost more than Someone like Munro or the Germans who did an analysis?
> 
> https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/8nhodw/model_3_teardown_in_germany_finds_that_teslas/


Very likely those working at the numerous secret projects of autonomous and EV/whatever upstarts/startups can shed some light.

But wait, those are secret projects!


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Very likely those working at the numerous secret projects of autonomous and EV/whatever upstarts/startups can shed some light.
> 
> But wait, those are secret projects!


I'm asking for the blog post or other data source for your claim that Tesla BOM is substantially higher than the estimates provided by Munro and others.

FWIW, Musk commented that the German cost estimate (which is pretty close to Munro's numbers) is "pretty close" to their actual cost. These numbers show a very healthy profit margin of 25-30% on a $49,000 rear wheel drive Model 3 with the extended battery. Munro estimated that even the SR version RWD car should be slightly profitable, about 10%.

The costs for the traditional automotive components are quite easily understood.... Tesla is now the world's largest manufacturer of lithium ion cells.... so they also enjoy the lowest cost per kw in cell production... nobody, even giants like LG can match what they are doing.

It is expected that they will have cell cost per kw down to $100 by the end of this year per wall street analyst comments who visited the factory. Pack cost down to $100 by end of 2020.

This is an enormous cost advantage over what anyone else in the industry is doing. Every kw of battery capacity adds substantial cost to an EV.

So, the short version of it is, I don't put much stock into your comment that Tesla's costs are higher than teardown estimates indicate from auto industry specialists.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> FWIW, Musk commented that the German cost estimate (which is pretty close to Munro's numbers) is "pretty close" to their actual cost. These numbers show a very healthy profit margin of 25-30% on a $49,000 rear wheel drive Model 3 with the extended battery. Munro estimated that even the SR version RWD car should be slightly profitable, about 10%.


Musk agreeing to an analysis that fits his pitch to investors is not surprising.

It is unclear to me how much Musk understands the German report.


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

Back to the original question posted by OP, and given that this is a bimmer forum, I would expect some skepticism from the crowd as to whether Model 3 is really the 3-series killer. IMO, it is not, because BMW has yet to release its mainstream EV models. And because there are other factors at play which have taken 3-series sales away from BMW. 

Also, there are many reasons to prefer a good ol’ ICE today versus fully electric.

To each his/her own. I applaud Musk’s foray into the car business, but let’s not get carried away. 


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Any body heard of NIO Global?

Apparently a very big Chinese EV manufacturer.

They went public on Nasdaq yesterday (Symbol: NIO), and so far doing very well.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I'm asking for the blog post or other data source for your claim that Tesla BOM is substantially higher than the estimates provided by Munro and others.


Is there a copy of Munro's report on your desk? Since your posts quote this report (discounted to $87k, down from $100k) so much, maybe you have actually read the report and cross checked the numbers, or you just take the words of the blog as golden reference?

None of my posts makes any claim about Tesla BOM and actual cost(i.e. BOM + R&D + cap cost etc, etc), however my post did quote WSJ/USB's analysis which does not match Munro's assertion.

Apparently there are unpublished proprietary analysis internal to those upstarts/startups too, and WSJ/USB might have got hold of some of them(who knows?), but the clout of the doubters is not enough to entice any of them to disclose more than what is on WSJ's article.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> Any body heard of NIO Global?
> 
> Apparently a very big Chinese EV manufacturer.
> 
> They went public on Nasdaq yesterday (Symbol: NIO), and so far doing very well.


NIO just doubled floor space in their NA headquarter around here, and their test vehicles move around as frequent as those from the other heavy weight upstarts in the area.

But since Tesla saturates the headlines, there is not much room left for NIO.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> NIO just doubled floor space in their NA headquarter around here, and their test vehicles move around as frequent as those from the other heavy weight upstarts in the area.
> 
> But since Tesla saturates the headlines, there is not much room left for NIO.


Oh look, there goes another NIO. Think I'll check out the local dealer.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> NIO just doubled floor space in their NA headquarter around here, and their test vehicles move around as frequent as those from the other heavy weight upstarts in the area.
> 
> But since Tesla saturates the headlines, there is not much room left for NIO.


*Their site* is impressive....

Best I can see, a NIO van will go to *you* wherever you are for an emergency 10 min recharge - enough for 100 km [62 mi] o'juice.

Then again, any EV down for needed charge is a *PITA*. Ain' no 5 min full tank thing....like ICE.

Here's their baddest boy:










.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Michael Schott said:


> Oh look, there goes another NIO. Think I'll check out the local dealer.


Exactly.

I think competition in the EV sector is healthy, consumers want choices.

Pointing to any one of a dozen startups and their latest $2B investment and what a threat they are to Tesla when they are years away from having a product available for purchase that you can pull into your driveway within a couple of months is ridiculous.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Oh look, there goes another NIO. Think I'll check out the local dealer.


The size of their operation implies that NIO intent in US is R&D and capital infusion.

According to Forbe(another Wall Street source) NIO ES8(one model) is outselling Tesla S + X(2 models) in China right now.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

NIO U.S. CEO Padmasree Warrior announces *NIO autonomous electric cars will be available in U.S. in 2020*


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> *Their site* is impressive....
> 
> Best I can see, a NIO van will go to *you* wherever you are for an emergency 10 min recharge - enough for 100 km [62 mi] o'juice.
> 
> Then again, any EV down for needed charge is a *PITA*. Ain' no 5 min full tank thing....like ICE.


Nice looks like a StingRay/Ferrari mix. Wonder how that 3 minute battery swap recharge is working out?

Selling now SUV.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> NIO U.S. CEO Padmasree Warrior announces *NIO autonomous electric cars will be available in U.S. in 2020*


Grabbing a previous Cisco exec as US CEO seems to say they are aiming high.

The immediate thread from NIO to Tesla should be in Chinese market.

ES8(shipping since June 2018) 0-60 4.4 seconds and 331 miles of range looks pretty good.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Grabbing a previous Cisco exec as US CEO seems to say they are aiming high.
> 
> *The immediate thread from NIO to Tesla should be in Chinese market.*
> 
> ES8(shipping since June 2018) 0-60 4.4 seconds and 331 miles of range looks pretty good.


2020+ ---> Big market winner will be reliable and convenient Autonomy....best AI gonna move-a lotta units! Yep, that could make NIO an *instant* competitor in the USA. Could.

The world is about to change.



















.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The size of their operation implies that NIO intent in US is R&D and capital infusion.
> 
> According to Forbe(another Wall Street source) NIO ES8(one model) is outselling Tesla S + X(2 models) in China right now.


They are no where near having a vehicle that competes in Tesla's market in the US. Is there any Chinese brand selling any kind of viable vehicle in the US? China has a history of investors mocking up vehicles and showing them at US Auto Shows like the NAIAS then never coming to market. NIO may change this and that's a good thing.

Other than Jaguar, GM, BMW, Nissan, apparently Hyundai and VW, no one else nationally sells an EV in the US in any sort of volume other than Tesla. And only Tesla, Chevy and Jaguar offer a 200+ mile range. No doubt this will change in a few years but NIO is not even in the same stratosphere in this regard.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Grabbing a previous Cisco exec as US CEO seems to say they are aiming high.
> 
> The immediate thread from NIO to Tesla should be in Chinese market.
> 
> ES8(shipping since June 2018) 0-60 4.4 seconds and 331 miles of range looks pretty good.


331 KM range not miles.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> 331 KM range not miles.


 355 km (220 miles) of NEDC range, or 500 km(311 [email protected] for ES8 70kW

Is Tesla's rating also NEDC spec?

https://insideevs.com/nio-es8-launches-in-china-prices-specs-and-more/


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> 355 km (220 miles) of NEDC range, or 500 km(311 [email protected] for ES8 70kW
> 
> Is Tesla's rating also NEDC spec?
> 
> https://insideevs.com/nio-es8-launches-in-china-prices-specs-and-more/


Which Tesla? We know that both the S and 3 in average configurations get over 200 miles of range. The article you link to clearly says they expect a range of more like 180 miles in real world conditions. But it's a moot point until we see these outside of China.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Which Tesla? We know that both the S and 3 in average configurations get over 200 miles of range. The article you link to clearly says they expect a range of more like 180 miles in real world conditions. But it's a moot point until we see these outside of China.


There is no quick conversion tool between EPA and NDEC numbers online.

EPA number of ES8 will be available if NIO is serious about shipping in US, a clearly stated expectation is still a guess on their part.

My take though is that with the Chinese slowdown(and its hohum IPO) NIO will re-evaluate its global ambition.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> They are no where near having a vehicle that competes in Tesla's market in the US.


My post#1896 says:

"The size of their operation implies that NIO intent in US is R&D and capital infusion."


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> My post#1896 says:
> 
> "The size of their operation implies that NIO intent in US is R&D and capital infusion."


What does that mean?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> What does that mean?


The news says the doubling of NIO US HQ floor space is from 85k sq-feet to 185k sq-feet. Current floor plan houses 300-400 employees.

The expansion appears to support increase in US R&D and operation headcounts, instead of manufacturing/staging for US shipment, at least for current US HQ site for now.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Grabbing a previous Cisco exec as US CEO seems to say they are aiming high.
> 
> The immediate thread from NIO to Tesla should be in Chinese market.
> 
> ES8(shipping since June 2018) 0-60 4.4 seconds and 331 miles of range looks pretty good.


You know that China slaps an immediate 25% tariff on imported US manufactured cars, right? Where-as US charges China a 2% tariff on cars built in China and sold here. Pretty fair, eh?

Kind of makes it hard for US manufacturers compete. Guess we understand why Tesla is interested in building their next factory there.

https://leasehackr.com/blog/2018/6/13/we-drive-the-all-electric-nio-es8-suv-leasehackr-exclusive



> How does it drive?
> 
> Despite the power, though, the vehicle is definitely tuned more for comfort than sport. The ES8 wafts down the road; potholes are dealt with a short jiggle and a muted thump, despite 21" wheels. The standard air suspension doesn't have the same underlying firmness of, say, a Model X, but it still does a decent job keeping body motions in check.
> 
> ...


Seems like it's a good fit for Chinese market where most of the people who can afford a USD $60,000 car want a super cushy ride and will pay someone else to chauffeur them around.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The news says the doubling of NIO US HQ floor space is from 85k sq-feet to 185k sq-feet. Current floor plan houses 300-400 employees.
> 
> The expansion appears to support increase in US R&D and operation headcounts, instead of manufacturing/staging for US shipment, at least for current US HQ site for now.


I have no idea what this has to do with NIO selling cars in the US anytime soon. My point is that you can talk all you want about competition to Tesla. As of today and in the near future the real competitors are the Chevy Bolt and Jaguar iPace.

As I've stated many times in this thread, there is no doubt that established companies will have viable competitors to Tesla in the next few years. though as said by others in this thread, Tesla has a decided advantage in battery cost. I hope that by the time I'm ready for my next car which is 5-6 years from now there will be strong competition and added technology.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> I have no idea what this has to do with NIO selling cars in the US anytime soon. My point is that you can talk all you want about competition to Tesla. As of today and in the near future the real competitors are the Chevy Bolt and Jaguar iPace.


None of the posts(including mine) that mentioned NIO in this thread talked about NIO immediately competing with Tesla in the US, except your own post#1893.

Your post#1893 implies NIO competes with Tesla, that your subsequent post#1910 decries your own post#1893. So have u made up your mind one way or the other?



Michael Schott said:


> Oh look, there goes another NIO. Think I'll check out the local dealer.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> None of the posts(including mine) that mentioned NIO in this thread talked about NIO immediately competing with Tesla in the US, except your own post#1893.
> 
> Your post#1893 implies NIO competes with Tesla, that your subsequent post#1910 decries your own post#1893. So have u made up your mind one way or the other?


Why do you talk about them in this thread if this is the case? Isn't much of your premise about how Tesla will fare when there is competition?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Why do you talk about them in this thread if this is the case? Isn't much of your premise about how Tesla will fare when there is competition?


NIO was first brought up by another fester, nonetheless none of the posts about NIO said anything about immediate NIO thread to Tesla in the US. Obviously that is not your interpretation of what others said.

Discussing competition and competitors does not decide how Tesla will fare, as win or loss has already been heavily skewed by Tesla's own decisions a long while back.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> NIO was first brought up by another fester, nonetheless none of the posts about NIO said anything about immediate NIO thread to Tesla in the US. Obviously that is not your interpretation of what others said.
> 
> Discussing competition and competitors does not decide how Tesla will fare, as win or loss has already been heavily skewed by Tesla's own decisions a long while back.


I must be misinterpreting everything you said in this entire thread.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The news says the doubling of NIO US HQ floor space is from 85k sq-feet to 185k sq-feet. Current floor plan houses 300-400 employees.
> 
> The expansion appears to support increase in US R&D and operation headcounts, instead of manufacturing/staging for US shipment, at least for current US HQ site for now.


Hmmmm. This for a company that has produced six [6] cars @ $1,480,000 each, and plans to produce 10 more.

Lotsa smoke! Waiting for fire. However, a successful NASDAQ listing will pretty much put 'em on the map.

We'll see.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Hmmmm. This for a company that has produced six [6] cars @ $1,480,000 each, and plans to produce 10 more.
> 
> Lotsa smoke! Waiting for fire. However, a successful NASDAQ listing will pretty much put 'em on the map.
> 
> We'll see.


Financials say they have delivered 481 seven-seat ES8 sport-utility vehicles @ $67K end of June. Back log at that time was 17K units reservations paid in.

Like Tesla the numbers are held pretty close & hard to come by.

Nio had a net loss of $502.6 million on less than $7 million in revenue in the first half of 2018. Right now I would be more worried about the US tariffs, if they get a 25% hit they are in deep s**t in the US market before they get out the door.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> Financials say they have delivered 481 seven-seat ES8 sport-utility vehicles @ $67K end of June. Back log at that time was 17K units reservations paid in.
> 
> Like Tesla the numbers are held pretty close & hard to come by.
> 
> Nio had a net loss of $502.6 million on less than $7 million in revenue in the first half of 2018. Right now I would be more worried about the US tariffs, if they get a 25% hit they are in deep s**t in the US market before they get out the door.


Forbes claimed that NIO shipped 1331 units in July, and outsold Tesla S+X in that month.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcol...ready-outselling-tesla-in-china/#4cc562b532b8

This is another interesting article. While Tesla shipped 10k units in China in 2017, Buffet-backed BYD shipped 113k "new-energy"(16k of those BEV) units in the same period. Now that NIO also starts shipping, it looks like Tesla is way behind in China for now, esp. after the tariff increase forcing price hikes of $30k per Tesla products.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/...never-before-in-china-heres-why/#79d6f97610e1


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

bear-avhistory said:


> Financials say they have delivered 481 seven-seat ES8 sport-utility vehicles @ $67K end of June. Back log at that time was 17K units reservations paid in.
> 
> Like Tesla the numbers are held pretty close & hard to come by.
> 
> Nio had a net loss of $502.6 million on less than $7 million in revenue in the first half of 2018. Right now I would be more worried about the US tariffs, if they get a 25% hit they are in deep s**t in the US market before they get out the door.


The NIO stock has been fluctuating wildly since IPO but probably a good long-term bet. I'm too impatient I sold yesterday.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

sr5959 said:


> The *NIO stock has been fluctuating wildly* since IPO but probably a good long-term bet. I***8217;m too impatient I sold yesterday.


I'll say! Up 19% then quickly down 21% early yesterday....waaaay too unstable for this ol' boy and I note trading was halted yesterday due to volatility. IPO also not on target, then spiked Thursday. Backed by tax breaks in China; behaving like erratic ghost of Tesla.

*[click me]*

.


----------



## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

I saw the new ipace at the local jaguar dealer today. I have it has the best interior of any jaguar currently on sale. The interior fit and finish is on a different level compared to the model x.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> I'll say! Up 19% then quickly down 21% early yesterday....waaaay too unstable for this ol' boy and I note trading was halted yesterday due to volatility. IPO also not on target, then spiked Thursday. Backed by tax breaks in China; behaving like erratic ghost of Tesla.
> 
> *[click me]*
> 
> .


Word is bouncing around about a $200 million tariff on China coming down. Lots on uncertainty, good news is China with tax breaks bad news here with tariffs.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

eazy said:


> View attachment 818619
> View attachment 818621
> 
> 
> ...


That looks really nice.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

eazy said:


> View attachment 818619
> View attachment 818621
> 
> 
> ...


That is sharp!

It's going to be interesting to see what happens when BMW, Audi, MB, even Cadillac, decide to go "all in" on the EV market. It will be even more interesting if they negotiate Supercharger compatibility and access deals with Tesla...


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

eazy said:


> View attachment 818619
> View attachment 818621
> 
> 
> ...


I agree on the interior, and I thought it drove much better than a Model S I tested, although to be fair that was quite a while ago.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

eazy said:


> View attachment 818619
> View attachment 818621
> 
> 
> ...


I-Pace is the most interesting EV coming out this year.

They are however facing serious delays with customers of the "first to ship" founders edition even being impacted and moved back to February or March of next year. That version is $87,000.

The biggest challenge of the i-pace in my opinion, beyond production issues is that the car has relatively low range combined with an LG pouch cell design that, if the Nissan Leaf is a good example will degrade rapidly over time.

I hope Jaguar does well with it, the market needs the competition.

Certainly the press is ecstatic about the i-pace... I can't recall when I saw as much gushing for an automotive product.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> has relatively low range combined with an LG pouch cell design that, if the Nissan Leaf is a good example will degrade rapidly over time.


A colleague is looking for a used(e.g. 2013) Leaf or Volt, both of which should have LG cells.

From what he could find online, it looks like early Leaf's big issue is lack of thermal management(those were marketed as city cars for short trips), while the 1st gen Volt with LG pack seems to be OK.

And the prices are great, 5-year old 1st gen Volt selling for $10k(not sure how many miles).


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> A colleague is looking for a used(e.g. 2013) Leaf or Volt, both of which should have LG cells.
> 
> From what he could find online, it looks like early Leaf's big issue is lack of thermal management(those were marketed as city cars for short trips), while the 1st gen Volt with LG pack seems to be OK.
> 
> And the prices are great, 5-year old 1st gen Volt selling for $10k(not sure how many miles).


Pouch design is inherently inferior to the AA type packaging that Tesla is using from a thermal management perspective as well as a cell aging perspective. Losing one cell and having the system dynamically isolate that cell and losing .01% of the pack is way better than having a pouch fail and take out .5% of the pack capacity.

We'll see how the Jaguar does over the next couple of years and what kind of teething issues it has.

I'm not in love with Tesla but they, by far, have more EV and specifically battery management experience than every other manufacturer combined. They've been doing it now for 15 years.

That's one reason I'm pretty comfortable going with the Model 3.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Audi E-Tron global premiere on Sep 17th. They just sent me an email inviting me to reserve one. Planning on changing to my next car in about a year, should be some great EV choices.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

I’m going to lease so not that bothered about how the battery technology as long as it has good performance and range. I’m also not planning on charging anywhere except home.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

sr5959 said:


> I'm going to lease so not that bothered about how the battery technology as long as it has good performance and range. I'm also not planning on charging anywhere except home.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Ideal EV scenario.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> I-Pace is the most interesting EV coming out this year.
> 
> They are however *facing serious delays* with customers of the "first to ship" founders edition even being impacted and moved back to February or March of next year. That version is $87,000.
> 
> ...


Fake It 'Till You Make It?



















Interior's impressive - for a change, does not look like something a college student would drive - exterior's OK - if not side-by-side, resembles a Mazda I saw at the car wash today....


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Apparently last week Tesla factory store had a special event in which customers with no order could pay for Model 3 in inventory and drive off.

The event has since ended, so it is unclear how many Model 3's(and mix of LR/DM/P) were available, and if those units were cancelled orders or excess production or whatever.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

.

At last! BMW i-Pace / Tesla competitor briefly demo'd at San Francisco airport - I am intrigued - level 3 - suddenly, i-Pace interior looks like a truck:


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Looks good but when’s it on sale???


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> At last! BMW i-Pace / Tesla competitor briefly demo'd at San Francisco airport - I am intrigued - level 3 - suddenly, i-Pace interior looks like a truck:


Good for BMW. That is obviously a show car so I hope they are quickly working on a production version.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> .
> 
> At last! BMW i-Pace / Tesla competitor briefly demo'd at San Francisco airport - I am intrigued - level 3 - suddenly, i-Pace interior looks like a truck


Wow is the demo still at SFO?


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Wow is the demo still at SFO?


Gone baby gone! Viewed only in the cargo bay of a 777 [below], it's their concept to be mfg'd for the 2021 model year. Reaction's very positive; looking do-able.

I want one....


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I'm not in love with Tesla but they, by far, have more EV and specifically battery management experience than every other manufacturer combined. They've been doing it now for 15 years.
> 
> That's one reason I'm pretty comfortable going with the Model 3.


Buying a Tesla EV at this juncture is somewhat analogous to buying from Cisco, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, etc, etc, the decision maker won't be blamed. 

Our locales have many loyal Tesla fans, to the extent that prices of Audi/BMW/MB/etc, etc get depressed, so the "cross-genre" competition is a great thing to consumers.

One option that colleagues also consider is 3 to 5-year old Volt and i3. Those are reasonably priced, and should last 3-4 years trouble free + enough range left as DD commuters.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Gone baby gone! Viewed only in the cargo bay of a 777 [below], it's their concept to be mfg'd for the 2021 model year. Reaction's very positive; looking do-able.
> 
> I want one....


To my layman's eyes this i-car looks really good. 

Is there any press release, e.g. still CFRP chassis, no glass roof(X is such a greenhouse!#@%$!), range?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Fresh off the press.

It is interesting there is no B pillar. And also big span of glass on top, so where is the roll cage?

This is mind blowing at many levels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVjGGnnWA2M


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

UBS, who have been pretty negative towards Tesla in general were just forced to comment that Audi's e-tron is disappointing and that it will be harder for legacy automakers to catch up with Tesla than many believed .

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/ubs...ectric-car-launch-is-a-big-win-for-tesla.html



> Audi's launch of its e-tron car revealed how far behind the competition is compared to Tesla, according to UBS.
> The Audi "e-tron underscores that catching up with Tesla is more difficult than expected by many," analyst Patrick Hummel said in a note to clients entitled "Audi e-tron launch - another lap Tesla wins" Tuesday. "While we appreciate that a solid EV product is not only about acceleration and range, there is still a gap to Tesla in the powertrain efficiency ratios that reflect the degree of innovation. The electric powertrain is not a commodity yet and Tesla might be able to sustain its lead for longer."
> Hummel noted the e-tron will get 30 miles to 50 miles less range than the Tesla Model X and will accelerate "significantly slower." He said the Audi electric vehicle's disappointing metrics will hurt its sales and benefit Tesla.


Real world range and degradation of the battery will likely also be worse than Tesla offerings.

Tesla really needs to get their Model-Y ready for the market for a late 2019 introduction..... a lot of people who are passing on the Model 3 are passing because they desire a compact crossover, the Model X is too big and too expensive for most consumers. A 200 mile range Model-Y based on the Model-3 that has all wheel drive and sells for, say, $60,000 is going to sell like hot cakes in this market and others.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> They need to start leasing these Model 3's...I'd consider one now if it was around $600/month on a 2 year lease.


Long Range Model 3 with auto pilot = $55,000. More if you want paint other than black.

$600 a month lease means you'd be paying $12,000 or so in depreciation plus, say another $2,000 or so in interest.

I don't know of too many cars that only depreciate 10% in two years.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Also, for what it's worth with all the talk about how Tesla is drowning in un-sold inventory, one can find plenty of people still waiting on dual motor and even long range RWD cars now for 6+ weeks. My own delivery that was supposed to happen Wednesday has slid back to next week due to "transit delays".


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

The E-Tron is going to sell at a starting price of $76k...and is sized like Q7. Disappointing to me, I was hoping it would be Q5 sized and about $60-65k. The Jag is the most appealing EV out there to me...now just need to wait for availability and lease offers. I really wish the Model 3 had a hatchback like the S...but I still don’t like those Tesla interiors.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> The E-Tron is going to sell at a starting price of $76k...and is sized like Q7. Disappointing to me, I was hoping it would be Q5 sized and about $60-65k. The Jag is the most appealing EV out there to me...now just need to wait for availability and lease offers. I really wish the Model 3 had a hatchback like the S...but I still don't like those Tesla interiors.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


It might be sized that way in order to accommodate the footprint size of the battery they are using. It could also be that VAG specifically designed it to use the maximum # of parts from other vehicles possible.

It's both a plus and a minus to legacy automakers entering the EV space.... they can design cars that can be dual use, so that the same design can house a traditional power-train OR electrical motor(s) and batteries but there are also drawbacks to this approach.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> Long Range Model 3 with auto pilot = $55,000. More if you want paint other than black.
> 
> $600 a month lease means you'd be paying $12,000 or so in depreciation plus, say another $2,000 or so in interest.
> 
> I don't know of too many cars that only depreciate 10% in two years.


True...that's probably a bit optimistic...but Model 3 should have high residual the Model S has been pretty good.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Also, for what it's worth with all the talk about how Tesla is drowning in un-sold inventory, one can find plenty of people still waiting on dual motor and even long range RWD cars now for 6+ weeks. My own delivery that was supposed to happen Wednesday has slid back to next week due to "transit delays".


Is there any link to article about Telsa''s drowning in unsold inventory?

Your experience of transit delays is consistent with Musk's comment of delivery hell. In our locales though, transit is mostly non-issue as most opt for factory delivery.

People at the store said customers with no assigned VIN can catch "loose" VINs, and the queue for that route is currently 2 weeks for LR for factory delivery(no transit delay).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla really needs to get their Model-Y ready for the market for a late 2019 introduction..... a lot of people who are passing on the Model 3 are passing because they desire a compact crossover, the Model X is too big and too expensive for most consumers. A 200 mile range Model-Y based on the Model-3 that has all wheel drive and sells for, say, $60,000 is going to sell like hot cakes in this market and others.


The UBS article is doubtful that Tesla can generate enough demand for $50k+ Model 3 in spite of its tech lead(which comes at a cost), hence their sell rating on TSLA.

And per your suggestion, Tesla needs a 200-mile crossover to fend off i-Pace and the like.

My thinking is that Tesla also needs another 200-mile Model 3 2.0 to fend off Nissan Leaf and other low(er)-cost offerings.

And as Michael and other said, the ideal EV usage with current tech is home charging and 2-3 cars/2-3 years of ownership, both of which dilute Tesla's tech and supercharging advantages.

The whole EV market is for Tesla to lose, so it is up to Tesla to keep it up.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The UBS article is doubtful that Tesla can generate enough demand for $50k+ Model 3 in spite of its tech lead(which comes at a cost), hence their sell rating on TSLA.
> 
> And per your suggestion, Tesla needs a 200-mile crossover to fend off i-Pace and the like.
> 
> ...


Ideal for most EV's. Tesla's strength is busting out of that scenario and making EV's as viable as ICE vehicles. The Supercharger network is not there yet in some areas but they are still technologically in a different class than all of their competition in this rapidly growing market.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Duplicate Post Sorry.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Like a Service Advisor?


Whoa, give me a break Cal. I am down as being ethnically insensitive & a Trumper because I used the term rice in a thread where the topic was "Are these RICE".

You introduce your service adviser to him & he will have a heart attack


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Is there any link to article about Telsa''s drowning in unsold inventory?
> 
> Your experience of transit delays is consistent with Musk's comment of delivery hell. In our locales though, transit is mostly non-issue as most opt for factory delivery.
> 
> People at the store said customers with no assigned VIN can catch "loose" VINs, and the queue for that route is currently 2 weeks for LR for factory delivery(no transit delay).


Sure, there have been plenty of hit pieces from the normal culprits on Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, etc. If you do a google search for something like "acres of unsold Tesla cars" you'll find plenty of articles insisting that Model 3 demand has fallen off and Tesla is faced with thousands of cars they can't sell.

You yourself have implied that Tesla is starting to face an inventory glut, while myself I have not seen much evidence of that participating in Teslamotorsclub forums where we still see people waiting multiple weeks for delivery of a RWD car.

Tesla has a major bottleneck right now with both their paint shop and their logistics/delivery network and it's not clear how they will clear the latter. For the former they have whacked two of the paint colors and dramatically increased prices of paint choices other than "free black" which is probably the fastest and easiest for them to paint.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> Whoa, give me a break Cal. I am down as being ethnically insensitive & a Trumper because I used the term rice in a thread where the topic was "Are these RICE".
> 
> You introduce your service adviser to him & he will have a heart attack


OK!

Dealer Service Advisor:










Indy:










Um....Yukoner?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> You yourself have implied that Tesla is starting to face an inventory glut, while myself I have not seen much evidence of that participating in Teslamotorsclub forums where we still see people waiting multiple weeks for delivery of a RWD


It is unclear how the following post can lead to interpretation of implying Telsa is starting to face an inventory glut.

To me it sounds great that a Model 3 can be delivered in a few days, it may not be the color or price or whatever one likes to have, but nonetheless it is a choice available to customers, and that is a good thing not talked about in other forums.



namelessman said:


> So anyone in NorCal interested in driving off Model 3(need to be flexible on color/options, etc, etc), just head to factory store and ask!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> The E-Tron is going to sell at a starting price of $76k...and is sized like Q7. Disappointing to me, I was hoping it would be Q5 sized and about $60-65k. The Jag is the most appealing EV out there to me...now just need to wait for availability and lease offers. I really wish the Model 3 had a hatchback like the S...but I still don't like those Tesla interiors.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


This is some interesting tech. And 95kWh sounds cool, even if it is not as efficient and long lasting than Tesla, it is nonetheless another choice given production already has started.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/0...-new-e-tron-electric-suv-is-banned-in-the-us/


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## vw2bmw (Feb 20, 2014)

Frankly, the bar will only get higher and more competitive in the fully EV segment & development. I do believe that there are many people who are not ready for EV yet. Maybe in 2025, and then the market will be ferocious.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

namelessman said:


> People at the store said customers with no assigned VIN can catch "loose" VINs, and the queue for that route is currently 2 weeks for LR for factory delivery(no transit delay).


So my friend was excited to take up the offer of 2-week LR delivery, but was not too sure after reading the following account of events.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...elivery-considering-returning-the-car.128682/


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

namelessman said:


> So my friend was excited to take up the offer of 2-week LR delivery, but was not too sure after reading the following account of events.
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...elivery-considering-returning-the-car.128682/


Wow. Just... wow.

Pretty much the opposite of my delivery and early ownership experience with BMW. I think I'll stick with established premium automakers for the foreseeable future.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> So my friend was excited to take up the offer of 2-week LR delivery, but was not too sure after reading the following account of events.
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...elivery-considering-returning-the-car.128682/


What, they're moving 'seconds' at the factory store?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> What, they're moving 'seconds' at the factory store?


What are 'seconds'?

The tesla forum thread showed one owner's account of his delivery experience, it is worth a read, but nowhere the thread mentions 'seconds'.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> What are 'seconds'?
> 
> The tesla forum thread showed one owner's account of his delivery experience, it is worth a read, but nowhere the thread mentions 'seconds'.


In retail they're goods with imperfections, usually cosmetic and discounted accordingly.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> So my friend was excited to take up the offer of 2-week LR delivery, but was not too sure after reading the following account of events.
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...elivery-considering-returning-the-car.128682/


Obviously most deliveries don't go that way and obviously Tesla seriously fumbled the ball with that delivery and how they handled it.

The person who received the delivery is responsible for at least a bit of it as the time to reject a delivery is when you notice all of these problems not after you drive the car home in that condition and have buyer's remorse.

I wouldn't blame anybody who decides to pass on Tesla at this point in time as they are dealing with crushing delivery volumes and they don't know how to get things done (my own delivery that was supposed to happen today has been pushed out to next week due to "transit delays").

On the other hand, some of us are going in with eyes open, know what to look out for, are excited about the product, excited about the $7,500 (+state incentives) in tax credits and see that there is zero competition to Tesla if what you are after is a fun, sporty, fast, well styled EV that doesn't cost six figures.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> Obviously most deliveries don't go that way and obviously Tesla seriously fumbled the ball with that delivery and how they handled it.
> 
> The person who received the delivery is responsible for at least a bit of it as the time to reject a delivery is when you notice all of these problems not after you drive the car home in that condition and have buyer's remorse.
> 
> ...


To be fair there are lots of reports of Model 3 owners who are overjoyed after delivery of their cars.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> To be fair there are lots of reports of Model 3 owners who are overjoyed after delivery of their cars.


Don't talk about that, doesn't fit OPs narrative, which is that the Model 3 is underwhelming, barely passable as a competitor in this segment and very overpriced.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> In retail they're goods with imperfections, usually cosmetic and discounted accordingly.


Beauty is in the eyes of the beholders, so imperfection to some is beauty to others. 

Anyway, what can be interpreted from the store policy is that, they have available VINs that can be matched to new orders, but ssigned VINs cannot be switched to another VIN(say, with earlier delivery dates) without cancelling order and forfeiting deposit.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> To be fair there are lots of reports of Model 3 owners who are overjoyed after delivery of their cars.


The two Model 3 owners in our bldg are happy campers. One of the units(delivered in August?) has similar panel alignment issues and chips on glass as shown in the Tesla thread, but the owner shrugs it off and does not care.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Don't talk about that, doesn't fit OPs narrative, which is that the Model 3 is underwhelming, barely passable as a competitor in this segment and very overpriced.


narrative = a spoken or written account of connected events; a story

To be fair the narratives around Tesla are spoken and written by many many, not just posters on this thread/forum/any forum/Wall street/Musk/whoever.

From that perspectives, all narratives are welcome!:thumbup:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

A common theme in this thread is that heavy competition to Tesla is set to imminently arrive in the US and this will put additional competitive pressure on Tesla.

This article is enlightening because it includes quotes from a longtime Tesla skeptic analyst;

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killer-myth-debunked-model-3-no-competition-until-2020/



> In a recent note, Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein, who is known to be critical of Tesla in the past, stated that there is simply "no credible competition" for the Model 3 until 2020.
> 
> According to Sacconaghi, Bernstein has looked into the upcoming electric cars from several automakers set to arrive in the US within the coming years. In the case of the Model 3, the analyst pointed out that the vehicle would likely be unrivaled until 2020, when Volvo releases its all-electric Polestar 2 sedan.
> 
> "*But let's make this clear: there is no actual flood of competition coming*. We tallied up every announced electric vehicle arriving in the U.S. between now and 2022, and the results were stark. The Model 3, which will account for 70% of Tesla's revenues within two years, faces no credible competition whatsoever until 2020, or until Volvo AB launches its all-electric Polestar 2 sedan," the Bernstein analyst noted.


I will also comment that Volvo's claimed #s for the Polestar 2 somewhat beggar belief.

400 horsepower.
350 miles range.
0-60 in 4 seconds.
$35,000.

Does not compute, I am highly highly doubtful they will be able to pull it off at that price.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Bob Lutz & Mike Jaskson think Tesla will be dead in a few years so there is a lot of pro & con out there.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

bear-avhistory said:


> Bob Lutz & Mike Jaskson think Tesla will be dead in a few years so there is a lot of pro & con out there.


Well sure, and some are just shooting off at the mouth and others are putting their money where their mouth is.

Chanos put his money on Tesla being a joke. Saudi investment group put $3,000,000,000 into TSLA stock because they think it's the "next big thing".


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> Bob Lutz & Mike Jaskson think Tesla will be dead in a few years so there is a lot of pro & con out there.


Looking at the competition, not seein' that....


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> A common theme in this thread is that heavy competition to Tesla is set to imminently arrive in the US and this will put additional competitive pressure on Tesla.
> 
> I will also comment that Volvo's claimed #s for the *Polestar 2* somewhat beggar belief.
> 
> ...


So, um, where can I buy one?


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The two Model 3 owners in our bldg are happy campers. One of the units(delivered in August?) has similar *panel alignment issues and chips on glass* as shown in the Tesla thread, but the owner shrugs it off and does not care.


Wait....those were fixed, right?


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## listerone (Jul 21, 2009)

I'm amused by all the Tesla hoopla.Every financial analyst worth listening to is saying that Tesla will be belly up with a year.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

listerone said:


> I'm amused by all the Tesla hoopla.Every financial analyst worth listening to is saying that Tesla will be belly up with a year.


If it's such a sure thing put your money where your mouth is and short the stock. You can sell plenty of puts on Tesla at $200 or $100 or even less right now. Go for it. Easy money.

I don't know if Tesla is going to be doing awesome in a year or belly up, but I certainly don't shoot my mouth off about the sure thing of the stock being $1000 or $0 in a year. I hope you realize that Chanos and others have lost 10's of millions of dollars already shorting Tesla stock... and plenty of large brokerages as well as large investment groups are buying those shares, not just people with an environmentalist hard on for electric cars.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

listerone said:


> I'm amused by all the Tesla hoopla.Every financial analyst worth listening to is saying that Tesla will be belly up with a year.


Some haven't heard....TSLA up 13.54 points [4.75%] today....

In the time since 9/8/18 when Tesla hit bottom and a new guy was named to "share the load" & report to Musk, stock's bubbled up >95 points.

What, short sellers driving it up? Then again worked w/Tilray --> 1/3+ outstanding shares shorted as of this morning.


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## Mark in NoVA (Sep 9, 2016)

listerone said:


> I'm amused by all the Tesla hoopla.Every financial analyst worth listening to is saying that Tesla will be belly up with a year.


Source?

Not a fanboy, but haven't seen this. So, give a reference, please.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Mark in NoVA said:


> Source?
> 
> Not a fanboy, but haven't seen this. So, give a reference, please.


He***8217;s blowing smoke.

https://marketrealist.com/2018/08/a...-target-on-tesla-stock-rose-in-the-last-month


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Some haven't heard....TSLA up 13.54 points [4.75%] today....
> 
> In the time since 9/8/18 when Tesla hit bottom and a new guy was named to "share the load" & report to Musk, stock's bubbled up >95 points.
> 
> What, short sellers driving it up? Then again worked w/Tilray --> 1/3+ outstanding shares shorted as of this morning.


It was $305 @ 9:40 it's recent high, trading at $296 @ 1:35. Its bouncing around a bit. Be interesting to see what the close is. No vested interest don't own any, would not want to be following this day to day.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> It was $305 @ 9:40 it's recent high, trading at $296 @ 1:35. Its bouncing around a bit. Be interesting to see what the close is. No vested interest don't own any, would not want to be following this day to day.


The stock price gyration is not new and has been like this since IPO days. What is new is that TSLA is morphing from a cult following to a growth(as many hope) company that is subject to usual quarterly scrutiny. In my book the 33% buy/sell/hold(assuming it is accurate) is quite balanced given the current state of the company.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> The car's traction control is just stupendously good. I don't get the jerky throttle cut-outs I get in the 135i when pushed (of course I can disable the traction control but that's not something I'd do other than the track).


As for jerky throttle cut-outs, is this in reference to the ZF 8AT takes a moment to respond? Mine does the same in D + sport, however the response is much improved with D/S + sport(no sport+), which is my default most of the time. Naturally though a electric motor has built-in advantage on this.

How does 80-100 and beyond work on the P? Do the electric motors have reserve to go further at that speed and beyond?

Naturally, how does range "adjust" in spirited driving?


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Thanks for sharing first hand experience on the traction control, this depth of understanding usually comes from accumulated miles and seat time. :thumbup:
> 
> Is this level of traction control configuring available for all Model 3, or just Performance?
> 
> The i3 and Leaf as EV cars are built as city cars, so their thermal management is non-existent/not that great. The up and coming offerings from various German brands will be a different class of products, so hopefully customers get to have numerous viable options.


Configuration of traction control will come in an upcoming software update (all this is done seamlessly over the air) for just Performance model 3. This may change later but it was initially designed for the Performance Model 3.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> As for jerky throttle cut-outs, is this in reference to the ZF 8AT takes a moment to respond? Mine does the same in D + sport, however the response is much improved with D/S + sport(no sport+), which is my default most of the time. Naturally though a electric motor has built-in advantage on this.
> 
> How does 80-100 and beyond work on the P? Do the electric motors have reserve to go further at that speed and beyond?
> 
> Naturally, how does range "adjust" in spirited driving?


No, the jerky cut outs I'm referencing is due to traction control kicking in. With spiriting driving at the limits of traction with the nannies on, if wheel slip is detected the engine will cut power for a split second. It may do this once every half second leading to the jerky feeling. On the Model 3, being an EV with custom traction control software it can happen 60 times a second (as an example) instead of 2 times a second because of much lower latency between motor, drivetrain and wheels. This makes for near transparent traction control even if full nannies are on. It's quite an awesome feeling and I can't wait to see how it feels when it allows more slip/oversteer.

If you've not driven at the limits of traction in your car you might not have experienced what I'm talking about.

On the transmission my 135i is DCT double clutch transmission, same as what the M cars have (I specifically wanted hydraulic steering or manual or DCT transmission). It is also quite jerky but is the nature of having two real clutches instead of a slush box.

On 80-100, the real torque is in 0-60 range. 80-100 is not as explosively impressive but delivers quite well. Probably at F80 M3 levels where below that the P is much faster. 0-60 in less than 3.5s in the P Model 3 vs 3.9s in F80 M3 (with DCT).

On range and spirited driving, you can get half of stated range if driving extremely hard but that's no different than a lead foot with a gas engine. The main difference is the next morning I automatically have a 'filled tank' again after being plugged in at night and for aggressive driving it costs me less than $.05/mile in electricity vs $.20/mile or worse in gas.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

paranoidroid said:


> I was in the market for a new car and cross shopped between the M2 Competition and either latest or upcoming M3 and the Performance Model 3. Well, I test drove the Performance Model 3 and was just blown away. The hyper-low center of gravity and low polar moment of inertia (just a frunk where a heavy engine would be) and insanely quick, smooth and silent acceleration just threw a curve-ball to everything I knew about sport sedans & performance cars. Especially one in this weight class.* The car is simply a beast and absolutely out performs anything BMW has to offer* today. After a few days of taking it up my favorite mountain twisty roads with very spirited driving I'm absolutely convinced of this. I would most likely need to go to a Porsche Cayman to beat the handling aspects of this car but even that wouldn't have the instantaneous power & torque of the Performance Model 3.


Anything? Sounds like Tesla has a company saving winner - seeing them everywhere - see at least one big rig car carrier loaded w/Model 3 every day around the Bay.

What are the latest production figures?

One thing we know: Thanks to Model 3, Tesla has far more momentum than any competitor. Maybe I'll swing past Fremont....pick as they're coming off the line you say? Or Corte Madera....Tesla has a showroom in a mall, across from the Apple Store!










.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Anything? Sounds like Tesla has a company saving winner - seeing them everywhere - see at least one big rig car carrier loaded w/Model 3 every day around the Bay.
> 
> What are the latest production figures?
> 
> ...


I think maybe you should verify the claims that you can walk in and have them match you up with almost immediate delivery of a RWD one. Assuming you'd be happy with RWD.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> One thing we know: Thanks to Model 3, Tesla has far more momentum than any competitor. Maybe I'll swing past Fremont....pick as they're coming off the line you say? Or Corte Madera....Tesla has a showroom in a mall, across from the Apple Store!


The factory store was not too busy yesterday, so no line queuing up like Apple store during iPhone intro. It was tempting to just grab one!


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Audi steps in & is taking deposits

https://www.automobilemag.com/news/audi-e-tron/?wc_mid=4035:13616&wc_rid=4035:29034688&_wcsid=8438B473D0FAB7D99E30488F2FF23568EA977E4D1AB1DD4B


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> No, the jerky cut outs I'm referencing is due to traction control kicking in. With spiriting driving at the limits of traction with the nannies on, if wheel slip is detected the engine will cut power for a split second. It may do this once every half second leading to the jerky feeling. On the Model 3, being an EV with custom traction control software it can happen 60 times a second (as an example) instead of 2 times a second because of much lower latency between motor, drivetrain and wheels. This makes for near transparent traction control even if full nannies are on. It's quite an awesome feeling and I can't wait to see how it feels when it allows more slip/oversteer.
> 
> If you've not driven at the limits of traction in your car you might not have experienced what I'm talking about.
> 
> ...


This is interesting feedback esp. DCT versus Model 3 transmission. :thumbup:

The 0.5 second for ICE versus 0.0167 second(60 times per second) for electric motor surely will make big difference.

My thinking though is ICE fuel cutoff can be close to 0.0167 second too as the traction control signalling is still electrical, and the ICE running at 6krpm is still 100 rotation per second, so the step can be 100 times per second too.

The real difference probably comes from ICE rotation inertia, as in theory electric motor can be stopped(or even reversed) at short notice. In the context of traction control though the goal is not dead stop(no rotation), so ICE versus electric motor should be close provided the similarly capable traction control hardware and software.

There were previous posts in this thread looking at track reviews, the numbers imply about 1/6th of the range if pushed on track, so down from 300 miles to 40-50 miles(or something like that). So your observation is 1/2 of that range, say, 150 miles, with spirited DD?

Your household also has solar panel to get $0.05/mile?


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The real difference probably comes from ICE rotation inertia, as *in theory electric motor can be stopped(or even reversed) at short notice*. In the context of traction control though the goal is not dead stop(no rotation), so ICE versus electric motor should be close provided the similarly capable traction control hardware and software.


Short notice indeed! Electric motor reverse thrust or resistance can be applied so quickly that moving yer foot from ICE go pedal to ICE stop pedal seems like a lifetime....fine control so much better....leg brake modulation coarse by compare. Done right, silky response every time.

*paranoidroid*? Is your ride creamy?

.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> I think maybe you should verify the claims that you can walk in and have them match you up with almost immediate delivery of a RWD one. Assuming *you'd be happy with RWD*.


I'd be happy with 4 motors. But two will fill a gap.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Short notice indeed! Electric motor reverse thrust or resistance can be applied so quickly that moving yer foot from ICE go pedal to ICE stop pedal seems like a lifetime....fine control so much better....done right, a silky response every time.
> 
> *paranoidroid*?


Also the electric motor + one gear + wheel + brake control per axle can make big difference too, compared to, say, ICE + DCT(e.g.) + transfer case(if AWD) + diff + brake.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> I'd be happy with 4 motors. But two will fill a gap.


To be specific, Tesla for now is one motor per axle, so Model 3 RWD is one motor.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The real difference probably comes from ICE rotation inertia, as in theory electric motor can be stopped(or even reversed) at short notice. In the context of traction control though the goal is not dead stop(no rotation), so ICE versus electric motor should be close provided the similarly capable traction control hardware and software.
> 
> There were previous posts in this thread looking at track reviews, the numbers imply about 1/6th of the range if pushed on track, so down from 300 miles to 40-50 miles(or something like that). So your observation is 1/2 of that range, say, 150 miles, with spirited DD?
> 
> Your household also has solar panel to get $0.05/mile?


ICE traction control can certainly be done better than BMW does it - many feel Porsche traction control is much better tuned and more transparent than BMWs. I've not lived with any Porsche so I can only give feedback from the BMW I own and live with.

Still, the feedback loop latency between combustion engine and electric motors will always be much shorter with electric based on physics. On ICE there is the entire physical combustion process, much greater moment of intertia with all the cylinders and heavy engine bits, more gearing and drivetrain to go through, etc. Folks familiar with feedback loop theory (PID, etc) will know you can turn the gains way up with a quicker loop.

On spirited driving and half the range, I use about 420wh/mile with hard driving (epa rated driving is 240wh/mile). That's driving hard enough most passengers wouldn't feel comfortable. On the track it would probably be double that. On track you can hit >100-120mph on straights then hard brake and accelerate again, not making as much use of regen. I will eventually take my P Model 3 to the track and I expect to be at 800-1200wh/mile.

At 420hw/mile that's 2.3 miles a kWh. I pay $0.12 a kWh during off peak hours (charging at night) with the PG&E EV rate. $0.12/2.3 = $0.05 a mile.

No solar, anyone that lives here can get these rates. Normal driving runs less than $0.03 a mile.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Short notice indeed! Electric motor reverse thrust or resistance can be applied so quickly that moving yer foot from ICE go pedal to ICE stop pedal seems like a lifetime....fine control so much better....done right, a silky response every time.
> 
> *paranoidroid*?


I definitely recommend taking a test drive of the Performance Model 3 if you haven't yet. Personally, I've only owned direct connection clutch based transmission cars (stick & BMW DCT) and hate that slight latency added by slush boxes.

The direct pedal to motor feeling in the Model 3 (or any EV) is not only on acceleration but in regen as well. Regen feels like an automatic downshift and you can modulate your speed very precisely.

In the 'Sport' setting, it takes a while to get used to. It's almost TOO sensitive. Any random modulation of your foot is translated and can be felt by you and the passengers. In 'Comfort' mode it emulates an ICE in that there is some added latency/buffer between your movement and the wheels making driving smoothly easier until you get used to the instant connection you get on 'Sport'.


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> To be specific, Tesla for now is one motor per axle, so Model 3 RWD is one motor.


Exactly - 4 motors yields ideal torque vectoring - as fine grained as possible and instantaneous.

Suspension to match, steller ride & handling. Chomping bit.










.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Exactly - 4 motors yields ideal torque vectoring - as fine grained as possible and instantaneous.
> 
> Suspension to match, steller ride & handling. Chomping bit.
> 
> .


One motor per wheel obviously is better than one per axle, but that will be extra cost, and will push price range further up.

Most local stores(not just factory one) have RWDs on the ground for customers to check out and pay for immediate delivery.

Also some stores are selling demos too, with full warranty, for $1/mile discount on the demos(plus further discounts on dents/scratches/dings).

The caveat is that since each local store has no F&I, the contract must be [email protected] back office, and that can take a few hours. So the actual delivery can be late today, or tomorrow or whatever.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> ICE traction control can certainly be done better than BMW does it - many feel Porsche traction control is much better tuned and more transparent than BMWs. I've not lived with any Porsche so I can only give feedback from the BMW I own and live with.
> 
> Still, the feedback loop latency between combustion engine and electric motors will always be much shorter with electric based on physics. On ICE there is the entire physical combustion process, much greater moment of intertia with all the cylinders and heavy engine bits, more gearing and drivetrain to go through, etc. Folks familiar with feedback loop theory (PID, etc) will know you can turn the gains way up with a quicker loop.
> 
> ...


Yes the quick feedback loop makes sense, and it is great that someone like you with experience of both DCT and electric to provide hands-on qualitative analysis of the two. 

Most around here are on PG&E plans too, the illusive thing is that the discounted night-time rate also is matched with increased day-time rate, so this summer friends got expensive PG&E bills from running AC on hot days.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> I definitely recommend taking a test drive of the Performance Model 3 if you haven't yet. Personally, I've only owned direct connection clutch based transmission cars (stick & BMW DCT) and hate that slight latency added by slush boxes.
> 
> The direct pedal to motor feeling in the Model 3 (or any EV) is not only on acceleration but in regen as well. Regen feels like an automatic downshift and you can modulate your speed very precisely.
> 
> In the 'Sport' setting, it takes a while to get used to. It's almost TOO sensitive. Any random modulation of your foot is translated and can be felt by you and the passengers. In 'Comfort' mode it emulates an ICE in that there is some added latency/buffer between your movement and the wheels making driving smoothly easier until you get used to the instant connection you get on 'Sport'.


As "any EV" is mentioned, was your Model 3 purchase driven by imminent need for another car, or Model 3 is so good that waiting for upcoming non-Tesla EV was moot?


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## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

I appreciate this thread. Lots of knowledge and expertise. Subscribed!

I have not posted here in years, sorry folks.

I too, switched over to the dark side (because the dark side has force lightning). I previously owned an E93, E70, this F10. Delivery is this Saturday Sept 30.

I traded in my 2013 F10, for a Model S 75D, the "slow" version with a 0-60 of only 4.2s (referral code if anyone is interested: https://ts.la/vicente64516 )

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Inline Sixer said:


> I appreciate this thread. Lots of knowledge and expertise. Subscribed!
> 
> I have not posted here in years, sorry folks.
> 
> ...


Congrats on new Model! Does your delivery still qualify for lifetime supercharging?


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> "A Model 3 is like an Apollo space capsule, its interior and exterior are not that great and may need patch works, but it is a spaceship!!!"


On the interior. Once you got used to the iPhone your expectations get recalibrated. Even the fanciest nicest Nokia phone with the most premium of build quality and materials will feel old.

Just like when the iPhone was announced and people had polarizing reactions to the lack of buttons and keyboards, the Model 3 interior is quite polarizing until you start to live with it.

You get used to it and it's not until you get back to the old that it really hits you how significantly the recalibration changed your expectations.

That said, I do wish they put a manual latch for the glovebox for safety and quicker access (opening it after an accident, instead it will auto open after accident is detected). That's probably the one thing that stands out that I would change.

Supposedly a major version of the car software will drop soon with new autopilot features and user interface changes and a dashcam feature. This car, I expect to get better over time where every car before only stayed the same since the day I bought it.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> On the interior. Once you got used to the iPhone your expectations get recalibrated. Even the fanciest nicest Nokia phone with the most premium of build quality and materials will feel old.
> 
> Just like when the iPhone was announced and people had polarizing reactions to the lack of buttons and keyboards, the Model 3 interior is quite polarizing until you start to live with it.
> 
> ...


My thinking is that infotainment updates won't saturate the ECU/MCU hardware for a few years.

On the other hand, the GPCPUs for autopilot/self driving will become blogged down in a couple of years max as Tesla pushes further into Lvl 3 and beyond.

From the tear-down articles so far, there appears to be no provision to hot swap hardware, or is there some back doors built in?

As far as latches and switches, the lack of quick adjustments for side mirrors and steering wheels is annoying(has to select through big screen first, right?)


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> My thinking is that infotainment updates won't saturate the ECU/MCU hardware for a few years.
> 
> On the other hand, the GPCPUs for autopilot/self driving will become blogged down in a couple of years max as Tesla pushes further into Lvl 3 and beyond.
> 
> ...


The driving GPU card is a self contained unit that can in fact be swapped out modularly for better hardware according to information I've seen.

Now can owners swap it out down the line when the better units become available and start showing up in salvage yards? That I don't know.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The driving GPU card is a self contained unit that can in fact be swapped out modularly for better hardware according to information I've seen.
> 
> Now can owners swap it out down the line when the better units become available and start showing up in salvage yards? That I don't know.


Is a link to the modular swapping of GPU card article that you have read?

From this artcle though, the MCU and GPU boards are enclosed in same module, so GPU-only hot swap does not look promising.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/28/tesla-model-3-new-dual-computing-platform-autopilot-media/

The next gen module, using Telsa's home-baked AI god chip from Tesla, won't be likely to be free.

My guess is that Tesla's cost will be $2k-$3k, and Tesla will sell it as Level 3 retrofit for $5k-ish.

And given Tesla's proprietary tech and zero 3rd party tech support and such, it is likely any new upgrade module(even from salvage yard) will need registration/install at dealer.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The next gen module, using Telsa's home-baked AI god chip from Tesla, won't be likely to be free.


https://electrek.co/2018/08/08/tesla-autopilot-hardware-upgrade-free-with-full-self-driving-package/


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> https://electrek.co/2018/08/08/tesla-autopilot-hardware-upgrade-free-with-full-self-driving-package/


Yes this round of 2.0 hardware + software upgrades are paid in for those opting for enhanced autopilot + self driving($8000 at time of purchase, $11000 after that).

How about the next round of 3.0 and beyond 2+ years in the future? It is free for life? If so that will be a great deal(hmm $8000 is no chump change).


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FYI, the X owner in our lunch group said the post-purchase FSD upgrade cost of $5000 does not cover hardware upgrade cost per Musk, it is unclear if the same is true for Model 3.


----------



## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

https://jalopnik.com/auto-haulers-dont-know-anything-about-elon-musks-claime-1829329912

LOL WUT :rofl:


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

JamesWWIII said:


> https://jalopnik.com/auto-haulers-dont-know-anything-about-elon-musks-claime-1829329912
> 
> LOL WUT :rofl:


"Cool story bro"

No one knows the exact details of why they have a delivery shortage but Tesla, but lets round up some people who have no internal knowledge of their operations to speculate and write an article. Elon built the first private space & rocket company, and first mass produced EV car. I'm sure building car carriers is within their scope of abilities if that's what they really want to do.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> FYI, the X owner in our lunch group said the post-purchase FSD upgrade cost of $5000 does not cover hardware upgrade cost per Musk, it is unclear if the same is true for Model 3.


For Model 3, they are equipped with AP 2.5 hardware and it's confirmed AP 3.0 hardware is a free upgrade for those who bought the $3k FSD package.

Huge update coming this week with a ton of new features and refinements. Free dashcam, and more autopilot abilities. I love that this car gets better all the time.

https://electrek.co/2018/09/26/tesla-version-9-new-features-model-3-model-s-model-x-generation/


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> For Model 3, they are equipped with AP 2.5 hardware and it's confirmed AP 3.0 hardware is a free upgrade for those who bought the $3k FSD package.
> 
> Huge update coming this week with a ton of new features and refinements. Free dashcam, and more autopilot abilities. I love that this car gets better all the time.
> 
> https://electrek.co/2018/09/26/tesla-version-9-new-features-model-3-model-s-model-x-generation/


Last weekend the quote was $48k out the door for LR RWD 18-inch rims black/black after deducting $7.5k Fed credit, for same/next day drive-off.

Adding EAP and FSD at time of purchase is extra $9k including tax, for a total $57k. That is quite expensive, but it is also Skynet on wheels. 

While customers can bite the bullet this round for AP 3.0, the next AP 3.5/4.0/etc-etc hardware will very likely be additional $$$.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> "Cool story bro"
> 
> No one knows the exact details of why they have a delivery shortage but Tesla, but lets round up some people who have no internal knowledge of their operations to speculate and write an article. Elon built the first private space & rocket company, and first mass produced EV car. I'm sure building car carriers is within their scope of abilities if that's what they really want to do.


Tesla does start building their own car carriers.

The factory lot usually has 8-10 car carriers loading up Model 3's, plus 6-8 loaded carriers on side streets waiting for drivers or something like that.

Just this Monday around 100-150 Model 3's were spotted in a parking lot of close-by vacant business buildings. And sales at stores said(on Monday) there are hundreds of RWDs, plus a handful of DM's and P's, on the ground for immediate deliveries in our locales.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Tesla does start building their own car carriers.
> 
> The factory lot usually has 8-10 car carriers loading up Model 3's, plus 6-8 loaded carriers on side streets waiting for drivers or something like that.
> 
> Just this Monday around 100-150 Model 3's were spotted in a parking lot of close-by vacant business buildings. And sales at stores said(on Monday) there are hundreds of RWDs, plus a handful of DM's and P's, on the ground for immediate deliveries in our locales.


You must have seen the littered carriers all over Kato road then by the factory.

Not many realize the enormous scope of their deliveries. And thus their operational and logistics scaling issues.

It's easy to gather up some random pundits to snark and have some clickbait be shared. But they don't realize the reality that NO car manufacturer has ever tried delivering custom ordered and configured cars to individuals at this volume / scale / timeline.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Last weekend the quote was $48k out the door for LR RWD 18-inch rims black/black after deducting $7.5k Fed credit, for same/next day drive-off.
> 
> Adding EAP and FSD at time of purchase is extra $9k including tax, for a total $57k. That is quite expensive, but it is also Skynet on wheels.
> 
> While customers can bite the bullet this round for AP 3.0, the next AP 3.5/4.0/etc-etc hardware will very likely be additional $$$.


A well equipped 340i RWD is also $50K+ and you aren't getting any federal tax credits either. The difference with the BMW is that the TACC on it is never going to get any better. NEVER. Hell, for that matter the media player will never get better and it's guaranteed that the car will never get any net new features over time.

They just got with the program in offering over the air map updates three years ago.

Tesla has lots of problems but the "you're going to be left high and dry with an outdated car" argument is a pretty weak one. I don't think anyone can point to any other manufacturer that puts more effort into keeping the older part of their fleet relevant than they do.

By comparison when BMW added support for Apple Carplay, with hardware that already existed in their older cars they never offered owners any option to upgrade to that system that didn't involve taking their expensive car and trading it in for a newer one.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> A well equipped 340i RWD is also $50K+ and you aren't getting any federal tax credits either. The difference with the BMW is that the TACC on it is never going to get any better. NEVER. Hell, for that matter the media player will never get better and it's guaranteed that the car will never get any net new features over time.
> 
> They just got with the program in offering over the air map updates three years ago.
> 
> ...


It is unclear what/if incentives are available on F30, early this year though 20% off MSRP was quite common, in the order of $10k+ off, so that is effectively BMWNA's version of "fed credits" .

Do note your interpretation of "you're going to be left high and dry with an outdated car" is, well, your interpretation. All that was pointed out is that future improvement may require hardware upgrade that may not be free.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> It is unclear what/if incentives are available on F30, early this year though 20% off MSRP was quite common, in the order of $10k+ off, so that is effectively BMWNA's version of "fed credits" .
> 
> Do note your interpretation of "you're going to be left high and dry with an outdated car" is, well, your interpretation. All that was pointed out is that future improvement may require hardware upgrade that may not be free.


You are right that other manufacturers can do their own discounts in order to compete. I'm not sure where BMWNA is at right now but the last two that I purchased 20% off of MSRP was pretty much unheard of.

Tesla has stated that those who purchase FSD will get it if it requires later hardware updates. Tesla have also not stated what EXACTLY FSD will include and they have not committed to what level of documented automotive autonomy levels FSD will equate to, so they have a lot of wiggle room.

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/autonomous-driving-levels-0-to-5-understanding-the-differences/

FSD could arrive with existing hardware even (even though not likely) and only work in specific urban centers that are very well mapped out. It might turn control over to the human if it rains or if it snows, or if it loses its internet connection.

I did not buy FSD. I think it's at least 5+ years before FSD will be anywhere close to the level where it would do something useful like drive me home after I have a couple of beers, and probably 10+ years before such a thing would be legal.

I did buy EAP even though I did not think I would. Using it on the car I rented showed me that even though I will probably never get my money's worth with it due to the relatively low amount of highway driving I do, I would probably kick myself if I didn't get it as we would inevitably use the car for a road trip or similar where it would be invaluable.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Do note your interpretation of "you're going to be left high and dry with an outdated car" is, well, your interpretation. All that was pointed out is that future improvement may require hardware upgrade that may not be free.


Tesla has the obligation to deliver Full Self-Driving as they advertised it:

"In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat."

This is the video that goes with the feature:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuhbqcMzOaw

Whether it takes 0 hardware upgrades or 10, doesn't matter to me. They are on the hook for it for the $3k I paid.

I think what voip-nina was saying that it's a bit silly to point out that future hardware may cost $ when that is the current baseline of all auto manufacturers, including software. The fact is, only Tesla is challenging this norm. Especially with the enormous amount of features added in software.

I can't wait for v9 this week!


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Tesla has the obligation to deliver Full Self-Driving as they advertised it:
> 
> "In the future, Model 3 will be capable of conducting trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat."
> 
> ...


Well there is documented proof of what FSD is promised then. 

voip-nina's post#2116 did catch the point, namely, Tesla's FSD is not fully attached to any official doc/spec/Level 3 or 4 or 5, so there will be wiggle room for interpretation.

Nonetheless if $3k can guarantee lifetime free hardware grades that will be gold!


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

paranoidroid said:


> Not many realize the enormous scope of their deliveries. And thus their operational and logistics scaling issues.


How many 3's can a car hauler haul? Let's say 7....

5000 Model 3's / 7 = 71 trailers per week. 10 per day.​
Let's guess ave. travel time = 8 days round trip....

Gonna need 142 trailers in the wild at all times.​
Now subtract units sent by rail, which should be a large number. Cuts travel time down to maybe 2 days for car haulers [trailers].

Then consider: This volume was expected. Sooooo how is there a severe trailer shortage?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> How many 3's can a car hauler haul? Let's say 7....
> 
> 5000 Model 3's / 7 = 71 trailers per week. 10 per day.​


Hmm, a zero is missing buddy.

5000-6000 *per week*, let's say 5500
10 cars/trailer
550 per week, or almost 80 trailers a day.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Situational Awareness?
> *
> Dude! * The situation most pilots'll be aware of is incoming email & txt; web sites o'choice....


My thinking is initially switching from non self driving to self driving will provide some improvement in awareness, but once accustomed to the tech the "driver"(or occupants) will gradually lose that awareness.

E.g. those techies on corporate shuttles have zero situational awareness, as the whole point of the shuttles is to free up time for other tasks, like telecommuting!


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Yepper! Thrills & chills, predict: Musk quickly shown the door to restore confidence....
> 
> Looks like they planned for this w/Jerome Guillen. Anyone exercise a put?


It looks like SEC let Musk and Tesla off the hook for minimal penalty and much needed independent oversight, that's good news for TSLA and Tesla owners alike.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Wow the new G20 cockpit is so cool! Do festers like that cockpit better than Model 3's? 

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1539882


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So BMW's solid footing can be a bit shaky going forward.

So can Tesla turn a corner, while BMW take a nose dive, even before its EV offerings are out?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/25/bmw...n-emissions-regulation-and-trade-tariffs.html


----------



## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

namelessman said:


> So BMW's solid footing can be a bit shaky going forward.
> 
> So can Tesla turn a corner, while BMW take a nose dive, even before its EV offerings are out?
> 
> https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/25/bmw...n-emissions-regulation-and-trade-tariffs.html


Other manufacturers are having issues with tariffs. Basically every manufacturer is going to be effected
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...mp-s-metals-tariffs-took-1-billion-in-profits
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...border-suffers-says-daimler-board-member.html

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Wow the new G20 cockpit is so cool! Do festers like that cockpit better than Model 3's?
> 
> https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1539882


Mucho Macho but as one poster pointed out: Where's that functionality in a HUD?

The good: Most suggestions re: display content, can & should be implemented.
The bad: Traditionalists left w/nothing​


----------



## Elk (Apr 28, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Wow the new G20 cockpit is so cool! Do festers like that cockpit better than Model 3's?


Too busy.

And the middle counsel/vents are very dated/1950's 1960's.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Elk said:


> Too busy.
> 
> And the middle counsel/vents are very dated/1950's 1960's.


It has some cool elements but man is it busy.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Would like to see HUD data. No problems with face level vents here. IMHO a good feature in hot weather. Would program the dash at its minimal setting.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Wow the new G20 cockpit is so cool! Do festers like that cockpit better than Model 3's?
> 
> https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1539882


Way too busy. Rest of cockpit still looks like a dated 90s interior (I have my 1995 E36 as reference).

I don't want the same traditional stuff done digitally (give me real analog dials in that case).

Model 3 works because they use one digital screen to clean everything up, not add more clutter.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Way too busy. Rest of cockpit still looks like a dated 90s interior (I have my 1995 E36 as reference).
> 
> I don't want the same traditional stuff done digitally (give me real analog dials in that case).
> 
> Model 3 works because they use one digital screen to clean everything up, not add more clutter.


There may be options available in G20 production to simplify the layout. Also since it is just LED display subsequent software releases can make additional enhancement.

It looks like a real cockpit to me, instead of main display on the side.


----------



## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Wow the new G20 cockpit is so cool! Do festers like that cockpit better than Model 3's?


Well, anything is an improvement over having an iPad Pro glued to the center of the dash, but I'll take my analog gauges over this busy Nintendo display package.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

Elk said:


> Too busy.
> 
> And the middle counsel/vents are very dated/1950's 1960's.


They highlighted the busiest skin.

And the middle vent area looks like a mouth....fish lips! *Ugly*.


----------



## Elk (Apr 28, 2012)

bear-avhistory said:


> No problems with face level vents here.


The location is not an issue; it is the styling which is dated.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> There may be options available in G20 production to simplify the layout. Also since it is just LED display subsequent software releases can make additional enhancement.
> 
> It looks like a real cockpit to me, instead of main display on the side.


Subsequent software releases?

HHHAHAHAHAGAGAHAHAHAGAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

*deep breath*

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Subsequent software releases?


During my F30 4 years/50k miles new car warranty, the software integration level did get bumped up occasionally, e.g. warranty work to swap head units, even the vacuum pump recall got software update.

Mine is non-Nav/non-tech, even that got some minor changes to the layout and such.

The SA said any software update is $200+, but if related warranty work it will be free.

The good thing is all software updates were done at dealer(no OTA), so when they bricked the car(and they did once), they had to fix it without taking away my loaner.


----------



## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

I finally received my Model S yesterday at the Lyndhurst, OH location. Paperwork was straightforward and I had a good experience. Car photo attached, taken from my garage.

Anyway, enough, to be back "on-topic" for the thread: I tell ya, in the hour I was there, there were maybe 9-10 awaiting their new model 3s. More arrived as I had left, considering this is the Midwest. There was a contingent of buyers from Michigan (because apparently Tesla sales are banned there). All smiles and excitement. The place was packed, but people were patient. The showroom had to do hourly group orientations to accommodate the volume.

And, then there was something I've never seen before - a bunch of volunteers from the local Tesla Enthusiasts Chapter/Club (they are building a bimmerfest-like culture with road trips and what not - talked at great length with one of them) helped greet the customers, tell their stories, and answered questions at the lounge. Wow.

I think this is more than just a car. I had a sense that something historic was happening here. While the model 3, may never be a 3-series "killer," it surely has stolen some of its thunder, produced a cult-like following, a new community of enthusiasts, and a movement.

The atmosphere was busy, positive, and shall I say... (wait for it)... electrifying?















Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

I must admit at first glance I don’t like this new BMW digital cluster. The rest of the interior looks decent, a reasonable upgrade not mind-blowing. They do state they will be remotely updating the car’s features like Tesla so that is promising.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> During my F30 4 years/50k miles new car warranty, the software integration level did get bumped up occasionally, e.g. warranty work to swap head units, even the vacuum pump recall got software update.
> 
> Mine is non-Nav/non-tech, even that got some minor changes to the layout and such.
> 
> ...


I just turned in my second leased F30, my total F30 ownership spanned pre-LCI and post-LCI units.

Other than a couple of extremely minor updates to fix make or break functionality with things like BlueTooth and map updates, the cars never received ANY updates from BMW that added any additional functionality.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> I must admit at first glance I don't like this new BMW digital cluster. The rest of the interior looks decent, a reasonable upgrade not mind-blowing. They do state they will be remotely updating the car's features like Tesla so that is promising.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


I'm glad Tesla is forcing others in the industry to take this approach. I've had BMW salespeople tell me straight-faced that BMW approach is that if you want updated features, even minor software ones, the answer is to upgrade your entire $35,000-$100,000 car to get those features.

We'll see how well BMW executes on this. I hope they do it well.


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> I'm glad Tesla is forcing others in the industry to take this approach. I've had BMW salespeople tell me straight-faced that BMW approach is that if you want updated features, even minor software ones, the answer is to upgrade your entire $35,000-$100,000 car to get those features.
> 
> We'll see how well BMW executes on this. I hope they do it well.


Yes the Jag I-Pace is also supposed to get these OTA functionality upgrades too...maybe it's a new standard. Love the fact Tesla owners got a free dashcam in the latest upgrade that is outstanding!

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> Yes the Jag I-Pace is also supposed to get these OTA functionality upgrades too...maybe it's a new standard. Love the fact Tesla owners got a free dashcam in the latest upgrade that is outstanding!
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


CR had an article about the safety and security risks of OTA.

As the article said, OTA has been used for minor stuff like sat radio and nav maps for a long while, but Tesla was the first one to stretch the concept to include safety critical items, e.g. steering, brakes, ECU.

My take is those safety critical systems should be off-limit to OTA, and BMW has been good about that, e.g. vacuum pump recalls and ECU updates of F30 were done at dealers.

This G20 Live Cockpit appears to be mainly infotainment, so OTA through built-in SIM should be OK.

https://www.consumerreports.org/aut...-air-updates-can-we-trust-digital-car-repair/


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I just turned in my second leased F30, my total F30 ownership spanned pre-LCI and post-LCI units.
> 
> Other than a couple of extremely minor updates to fix make or break functionality with things like BlueTooth and map updates, the cars never received ANY updates from BMW that added any additional functionality.


Mine is MY13 and is almost 6 years old. The software updates of functionality that mattered to me were for ECU and transmission and such.

For those who did not care about such functionalities might not even notice the changes.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

namelessman said:


> During my F30 4 years/50k miles new car warranty, the software integration level did get bumped up occasionally, e.g. warranty work to swap head units, even the vacuum pump recall got software update.
> 
> Mine is non-Nav/non-tech, even that got some minor changes to the layout and such.
> 
> ...


Yeah never really paid attention to software up grades because they are usually transparent & done when the car is in for service.

That said was on my way to the airport to drop off my son in law when my map went away & i got a message on the screen

"Do you want to upgrade you navigation software now or continue with your current version till you restart the car?"

Took the now because I know the way & it took about 5 minutes to do.

On the new display think it will have a number of choices like the current one. This was shown at Pebble Beach in the Z4.










Personally I like analog gauges, just old school, but it looks like the glass can be cut down in what it displays. That said, since I have only used half the back seat once for a human expect next car will be a StingRay & will be looking at glass regardless.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Inline Sixer said:


> I finally received my Model S yesterday at the Lyndhurst, OH location. Paperwork was straightforward and I had a good experience. Car photo attached, taken from my garage.
> 
> Anyway, enough, to be back "on-topic" for the thread: I tell ya, in the hour I was there, there were maybe 9-10 awaiting their new model 3s. More arrived as I had left, considering this is the Midwest. There was a contingent of buyers from Michigan (because apparently Tesla sales are banned there). All smiles and excitement. The place was packed, but people were patient. The showroom had to do hourly group orientations to accommodate the volume.
> 
> ...


Congrats on the new ride, and just in time to get last offer of free supercharging too!!!

The picture appears to show a fit and finish issue with Model S rear bumper, but enlarging the picture shows the charging cable instead of a big gap! 

Tesla has been a cult following for a long while, and discussions of Tesla tend to gravitate towards polarized antagonism.

As Tesla(and its management) matures the company and products and fan base probably will also adjust. In the meantime, competitors will cherry pick the best bits from Tesla's best offerings for their products too, so that will be a good thing for consumers and customers.


----------



## CALWATERBOY TRE (Mar 18, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Subsequent software releases?
> 
> HHHAHAHAHAGAGAHAHAHAGAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
> 
> ...


Au contraire, mon ami! Software updates are a regular thing at BMW.

Hardware....well....not so much....


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

Inline Sixer said:


> I finally received my Model S yesterday at the Lyndhurst, OH location. Paperwork was straightforward and I had a good experience. Car photo attached, taken from my garage.
> 
> Anyway, enough, to be back "on-topic" for the thread: I tell ya, in the hour I was there, there were maybe 9-10 awaiting their new model 3s. More arrived as I had left, considering this is the Midwest. There was a contingent of buyers from Michigan (because apparently Tesla sales are banned there). All smiles and excitement. The place was packed, but people were patient. The showroom had to do hourly group orientations to accommodate the volume.
> 
> ...


Welcome to the club!

Great to have more experienced BMW owners comment on the ownership experiences with these cars.

You'll find that half the fun of owning a Tesla is watching the comedy peanut gallery throw in their two cents. Ones with zero Tesla experience and some who have only gotten their first BMW a few months ago (and thus even their BMW experience is of the current modern watered down to the masses variety). :rofl:

On the Tesla enthusiast club & the energy of the 'movement' - it's definitely a historical time for Tesla. The Model 3 is a turning point and it'll either make or break the company.

You'll find many old-school BMW owners turn to Tesla for what they originally sought from BMW - the Ultimate Driving Machine, because in the opinion of many, their current offerings have lost their way.

My Performance Model 3 reminds me of the nimble-handling and power delivery (smooth and linear, naturally aspirated) era of the E46 M3, but with the top-end power output of the F80.

Enjoy the Model S!


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

CALWATERBOY TRE said:


> Au contraire, mon ami! Software updates are a regular thing at BMW.
> 
> Hardware....well....not so much....


Go through what Tesla owners are getting in the next software update coming this week:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9j1qd3/201839_v9_vehicle_software_update_megathread/

Then tell me if the cumulative amount of what BMW calls "Software Updates" over the entire lifetime of a BMW model has ever come close to the additional features being offered in this one update by Tesla (and supporting cars as far back as the first Model S six years ago).

No comparison, Tesla is a Silicon Valley technology company. In the same sense that Nokia & Blackberry could never keep up with Apple & iPhone once the ball moved into the court of Silicon Valley's core competency - technology & software.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

sr5959 said:


> Yes the Jag I-Pace is also supposed to get these OTA functionality upgrades too...maybe it's a new standard. Love the fact Tesla owners got a free dashcam in the latest upgrade that is outstanding!
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Yea, free front camera dashcam in this update. Continuously records to a USB flash drive you put in one of the ports. Elon tweeted this is just first cut. Future updates should expand functionality and cover more cameras (I believe there are 8 total in Model 3) and perhaps record when the car is parked.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The SA said any software update is $200+, but if related warranty work it will be free.
> 
> The good thing is all software updates were done at dealer(no OTA), so when they bricked the car(and they did once), they had to fix it without taking away my loaner.


I couldn't stomach the BMW fees for "software updates" in my car. So what did I do? I sourced and installed the entire suite of BMW Tools, the same ones dealers have access to. INPA, EDIABAS, BMW Coding Tool, NCS Expert, etc all on a Windows Parallels Virtual Machine image. Then somewhere there exists a rolling 40+ gig repository of all firmware/software updates for BMW cars and gave myself my own software updates.

Even gave myself a PPK upgrade at one point.  That is before I went off the deep end with a completely custom tuned ECU.

I'm pretty well-versed in the world of what BMW calls 'software updates'. :bustingup


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Go through what Tesla owners are getting in the next software update coming this week:
> 
> https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9j1qd3/201839_v9_vehicle_software_update_megathread/
> 
> ...


Looking at the list of v9 changes, at least there is no critical system components. 

The AutoPilot changes and suites are not applicable to everyone.

The rest seems to gui and usability enhancements.

There are software updates, and then there are critical software updates. E.g. iPhone/Android moving things around on gui is not that critical, but security and stability releases are important.

To me, as long as BMW delivers the critical safety updates in a safe and consistent matter, the rest of nice-to-have software bling can be left to those who appreciate them.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> I couldn't stomach the BMW fees for "software updates" in my car. So what did I do? I sourced and installed the entire suite of BMW Tools, the same ones dealers have access to. INPA, EDIABAS, BMW Coding Tool, NCS Expert, etc all on a Windows Parallels Virtual Machine image. Then somewhere there exists a rolling 40+ gig repository of all firmware/software updates for BMW cars and gave myself my own software updates.
> 
> Even gave myself a PPK upgrade at one point.  That is before I went off the deep end with a completely custom tuned ECU.
> 
> I'm pretty well-versed in the world of what BMW calls 'software updates'. :bustingup


Hats off! :thumbup:

For mere laymen and mortals like myself, as long as the brakes work and engine does not blow up and wheels stay on, that's good enough for the day!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Go through what Tesla owners are getting in the next software update coming this weekNo comparison, Tesla is a Silicon Valley technology company. In the same sense that Nokia & Blackberry could never keep up with Apple & iPhone once the ball moved into the court of Silicon Valley's core competency - technology & software.


Do note every major automaker and related namesake(e.g. Continental!) has R&D in SV now. Their sole purposes are to assimilate and integrate SV tech.

And in true SV innovative spirits, the staff that work on these Tesla competitors can also be the same people building previous gen Tesla's systems too!


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

Inline Sixer said:


> While the model 3, may never be a 3-series "killer," it surely has stolen some of its thunder, produced a *cult*-like following, a new community of enthusiasts, and a movement.





namelessman said:


> Tesla has been a *cult* following for a long while, and discussions of Tesla tend to gravitate towards polarized antagonism.


Ah, yes...the 4-letter "C-word".

I've never used it here because I don't want to be accused of "rudeness" but that's essentially how I (and quite a few industry pundits) would describe the over-enthusiastic followers/customers of this company's products, stock and founder. The breathless hyperbole and incessant sunshine-pumping can definitely be off-putting.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Would just die without my Atari game upgrade. Pong at 85mph must be stimulating :rofl:


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## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

JamesWWIII said:


> Ah, yes...the 4-letter "C-word".
> 
> I've never used it here because I don't want to be accused of "rudeness" but that's essentially how I (and quite a few industry pundits) would describe the over-enthusiastic followers/customers of this company's products, stock and founder. The breathless hyperbole and incessant sunshine-pumping can definitely be off-putting.


That's alright. Thanks for expressing your opinion and it's valid.

I on the other hand, am very much enjoying this car and very happy with it.

Cheers!

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

paranoidroid said:


> Welcome to the club!
> 
> Great to have more experienced BMW owners comment on the ownership experiences with these cars.


Thanks Man!

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

namelessman said:


> Congrats on the new ride, and just in time to get last offer of free supercharging too!!!


Thanks!

I truly did buy a car plus an offer of free fuel for life. Unreal.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Then somewhere there exists a rolling 40+ gig repository of all firmware/software updates for BMW cars and gave myself my own software updates.


Is there a community on coding of Model 3/S/X?

BMW has not been too militant about people hacking their bimmers, but Tesla has been known to contact owners plugging into the car's ethernet ports.

So is it likely Tesla will let go of 40GB+(or 400GB or 4TB or whatever) of FW/SW updates without chasing down those who download/install these updates?

This is analogous to closed iOS and open Android, right?


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Is there a community on coding of Model 3/S/X?
> 
> BMW has not been too militant about people hacking their bimmers, but Tesla has been known to contact owners plugging into the car's ethernet ports.
> 
> ...


BMW is very uncompromising with hacking the firmware - if they notice it's been modified or messed with the warranty is automatically void. I only started messing with mine once it was out of warranty.

There is a root community for Tesla. Many of the latest updated software leaks are from cars running early, not out yet in public software. This is how we know what's in next weeks update for example. There are a few folks running this on their Model 3 and uploading plenty of images and video with no repercussion I've heard of yet (though they are certainly at risk).

I'm not sure of the risks here. Not something I looked into yet, and probably won't until the warranty is up.

There is no iOS/Android analogy here. A cars are going to be technically closed. For liability reasons, etc.


----------



## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

acoste said:


> Tesla owners do tend to obsessively love their cars. My friend was all about their Model S. Until they sold it. Only after then she started telling what she was missing from it and what was bad about it.
> 
> They got a Model 3 now and she is already complaining about it. That's bad sign. Usually owners love their cars. It's her husband who is ultimately in love with the car, and only because it's fast. He doesn't care about its unreliability.
> She said, ok, ok fast, but the Porsche turbo S that she drives has thousand times better sound and that she will never sell that car. Nor her AMG Mercedes.
> ...


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

Inline Sixer said:


> Just my guess because iDrive is antiquated and inputting an address in its Nav is cumbersome - I don't miss that knob. In a Tesla, it's as simple as saying, "Take me to the nearest Whole Foods." Or have the address simply shared from your phone. Siri can even order the Tesla app to do stuff, e.g. "Siri, unlock my car." BMW better put these out now instead of hiding it then if I'm wrong and they are capable, but are holding it all in.


iDrive has had the same capability since ID5 (a couple of years ago). I use voice commands to set nav all the time just using phrases like the ones you used in your example. You can also send nav addresses to the car via the BMW phone app. That's been available for a couple years too.


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## Inline Sixer (Oct 28, 2010)

FaRKle! said:


> iDrive has had the same capability since ID5 (a couple of years ago). I use voice commands to set nav all the time just using phrases like the ones you used in your example. You can also send nav addresses to the car via the BMW phone app. That's been available for a couple years too.


Fair enough. I stand corrected then.

Can you use voice commands to search new addresses now?

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## eazy (Aug 20, 2002)

Inline Sixer said:


> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Tesla model is not the safest car ever. The government gave it a great score and then Tesla over exaggerated the score https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/tesla-model-3-nhtsa-safety-claims/.
As for the model S it did get good government scores but did not get top safety pick plus from the IIHS.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Saw an IPace today...sexy


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## TheAirman (Nov 5, 2017)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Saw an IPace today...sexy


I like it so I went to the Jaguar site to "build my own."

Mine clocked in at $93,500 USD. Very sexy, indeed.


----------



## jdemmers (Oct 21, 2018)

*Love it but...*

Would have seriously considered the Model 3 but for the 15" monitor. Very poor interface for a car and a deal breaker for me.


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

Inline Sixer said:


> Fair enough. I stand corrected then.
> 
> Can you use voice commands to search new addresses now?
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Do you mean speaking the address of where you want to go into the nav (as opposed to saying the name of the location)? If so, then yes that works. You can say "Joe Bob's Amazing Pizza, Yummytown" or "1234 Pie Ave, Yummytown."


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Inline Sixer said:


> I think Audi should revive that


A little background on the autonomous car competition

Tesla started with Level 2 - wanna be Level 3 system (read about levels on the attached image). Other car makers had all the hardware to do the same what Tesla did but they did not put this in production cars because they couldn't solve several traffic situations. They stayed at driving assistance level. Tesla couldn't solve those situations either, but they wanted to be the first one and not care about peoples' safety. We can see the results, 3 deadly accidents so far.

Meanwhile there is more research data coming into light that shows that (Level 2 and) Level 3 automation is a dead end. Its flaw is that it gives back the control to the driver in case of a complex situation. The driver isn't prepared. Researches showed that the drivers usually grab the steering wheel in 0.8 seconds. But it takes from 2 to 26 seconds to understand the traffic situation. So in the first second there is a little chance to make a good decision. 
For this reason most of the car makers decided to skip Level 3. They are targeting Level 4.

Level 4 means that the car should drive autonomously on the full distance, can not disengage and expect the driver to help. There are predefined roads where it can drive. And in case the destination is off the grid, it asks the driver to drive from start to finish.

This is why all the big names are training their cars in specific locations. Waymo and Uber for example are mapping the cities and teach the car, which will be able to drive inside the city as Level 4. But can't go elsewhere.

And Tesla fell behind. They were focusing on the wrong target. Their thinking was that everything on the road is built for human eyes therefore autonomous driving can be achieved by cameras only. And the signal from the front radar had little weight in the decision making. However the accident in Florida showed the incapabilities of the technology and they had to switch from camera based system to a mix of radar - camera system. Radars have a lot of false signals that makes them unreliable. Steady objects on the road can't be detected due to the many false alerts. Meanwhile the competition started to build Lidar based systems that proved a lot more reliable and have Level 4 cars on the road already:

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-companies-most-likely-to-get-driverless-cars-on-the-road-first-2017-4

Where is Audi now?
Audi A8 has all the hardware to drive as Level 3 but it isn't enabled for the reasons above.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/2019-audi-a8-level-3-traffic-jam-pilot-self-driving-automation-not-for-us/

quoting from the article:

When asked what Navigant's Abuelsamid thought about Audi's decision to delay the rollout of Traffic Jam Pilot in the US, he said, "I absolutely think it's a smart move right now. I think manufacturers really need to reconsider even Level 2 systems. I'm increasingly of the opinion that any system that potentially allows the driver to disengage is a bad idea&#8230; until you get to full automation -- a Level 4 system -- any intermediate system has potential increased risk, rather than reduced risk, for safety."

Waymo (Google) is already running its Level 4 cars in Phoenix, AZ, residents can try it:
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/15848/waymo-is-already-running-cars-with-no-one-behind-the-wheel

ps:

As of January 3, 2016, the following companies reported on autonomous vehicle trials from September 2014 to November 2015 in California:

(i) Bosch (ii) Delphi (iii) Google (iv) Mercedes-Benz (v) Nissan (vi) Volkswagen Group (vii) Tesla


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> A little background on the autonomous car competition
> 
> Tesla started with Level 2 - wanna be Level 3 system (read about levels on the attached image). Other car makers had all the hardware to do the same what Tesla did but they did not put this in production cars because they couldn't solve several traffic situations. They stayed at driving assistance level. Tesla couldn't solve those situations either, but they wanted to be the first one and not care about peoples' safety. We can see the results, 3 deadly accidents so far.
> 
> ...


Great post! :thumbup:

The 0.8 second to react and 2-26 seconds to sync up to traffic conditions again are important.

E.g. in the fatal accident on 101 and 85 that killed an Apple engineer, Tesla's system provided 6 seconds warning before impact. That really is not much margin for the driver to steer clear even if the driver did grab the steering wheel within a second.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Great post! :thumbup:
> 
> The 0.8 second to react and 2-26 seconds to sync up to traffic conditions again are important.
> 
> E.g. in the fatal accident on 101 and 85 that killed an Apple engineer, Tesla's system provided 6 seconds warning before impact. That really is not much margin for the driver to steer clear even if the driver did grab the steering wheel within a second.


Those were the headline news but in reality the car did not warn the driver in those 6 seconds. The Autopilot completely failed.

You may not have access to this article but I will quote from here:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-autopilot-system-warned-driver-to-put-hands-on-wheel-u-s-investigators-say-1528394536?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

Headline: "Tesla Autopilot System Warned Driver to Put Hands on Wheel, U.S. Investigators Say"

Further down in the article:

"The vehicle's Autopilot system was activated for about 19 minutes before the crash, the NTSB said. During that time, the system provided two visual and one auditory alert for the driver to put his hands back on the steering wheel, the agency said. Those occurred more than 15 minutes before the crash.

In the seconds leading up to the crash, the Model X was traveling 65 mph while following another vehicle, the agency said. The Tesla began steering left seven seconds before the crash, and after it no longer was behind the other vehicle it began accelerating three seconds before the collision to almost 71 mph, before running into a highway barrier.

"What strikes me from the NTSB preliminary report is that the car was silent-no visual or auditory alert at all-as it drove straight into the concrete median barrier," Todd Humphreys, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin whose research area is robot-perception systems, said in an email. "Yet the car's forward radar must surely have sensed the highly reflective crash attenuator mounted on the barrier."
"

Also Tesla's report confirms this:
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last-week%E2%80%99s-accident
"In the moments before the collision, which occurred at 9:27 a.m. on Friday, March 23rd, Autopilot was engaged with the adaptive cruise control follow-distance set to minimum. The driver had received several visual and one audible hands-on warning *earlier in the drive* and the driver's hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision. "


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Those were the headline news but in reality the car did not warn the driver in those 6 seconds. The Autopilot completely failed.
> 
> You may not have access to this article but I will quote from here:
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-autopilot-system-warned-driver-to-put-hands-on-wheel-u-s-investigators-say-1528394536?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2
> ...


Wow this is very bad. So Tela's state of the art L3 autopilot is a death trap waiting to happen.

Does Tesla have the option to not include any of the autopilot/self driving hardware in the car? For a customer like me not wanting to have those techs, and knowing what those techs can/cannot do, my preference is not even have them at all just in case skynet wakes them up without my consent.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

https://youtu.be/Lj1a8rdX6DU

"Magnum this is a private line...clear off!"


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

Acoste

One of the best thought out posts and responses I've seen. Congratulations!

My personal thoughts on autonomous driving is that it is a false narrative at this point in time. Tesla seems driven to push forward with new technology but I believe the ICE Manufactures feel it's not a technology that sells product for them. As a result:

1. The ICE manufacturers are very pleased that Tesla pushed forward and is "The Canary in the Coal Mine" so to speak. 
2. The court cases are going to precedent setting from many aspects: Who is liable and to what degree? How large are the settlements? How will this affect future Federal & State laws when it comes to autonomous vehicles?
3. If I'm an ICE manufacturer I'm quite content to sit back for the next year or two and see how the dust settles out of the court cases and understand the legal and statutory landscape prior to pushing forward with autonomous driving. That said R&D efforts continue unabated until such time as laws and technology are ready.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The tear down video says Tesla's manufacturing is not cost effective, but does it mean Tesla's body-in-white is unsafe?

If Tesla's BIW is heavy and costly to manufacture compared to other automakers, but yet has great strength and agility, then it may not be too bad for customers.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

bmwexpat said:


> Acoste
> 
> One of the best thought out posts and responses I've seen. Congratulations!
> 
> ...


Autonomous driving is a technology that consumers are craving. Sure it's a long way from perfect but the real measurement is whether it's safer than the alternative.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...-may-be-stalled-by-rise-in-consumer-fear/amp/


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Michael Schott said:


> Autonomous driving is a technology that consumers are craving. Sure it***8217;s a long way from perfect but the real measurement is whether it***8217;s safer than the alternative.
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fo...-may-be-stalled-by-rise-in-consumer-fear/amp/


Might be what you want but I don't believe "craving" is a very accurate term for what consumers want.

Aug 16, 2018 - Fewer Americans are embracing self-driving car technology following high-profile incidents involving Uber and Tesla vehicles, according to a *new study from Cox Automotive.* ... Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would never own a fully-autonomous car, known in the industry as a Level 5 vehicle

May 25, 2017 - Consumers Don't Really Want Self-Driving Cars,*MIT Study Finds*... said people do want some autonomous technology in their cars ***8212; such as ..

Apr 25, 2018 - Self-driving cars didn't spring from any automotive minds, as some might expect ... Seems *some people actually like driving,* if you can imagine.

Apr 9, 2018 - *Californians Don't Want Autonomous Cars in Their Neighborhoods.* A poll that found 58 percent of Californians believe self-driving vehicles should not be allowed on the streets where they live comes at a difficult time for the industry.


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## imtjm (Oct 5, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Autonomous driving is a technology that consumers are craving. Sure it***8217;s a long way from perfect but the real measurement is whether it***8217;s safer than the alternative.


yeah consumers are craving it for some inexplicable reason. Say we get to the point where everything is autonomous like in 5th Element, why would anyone want to pay to ever own a vehicle? you give up all rights to privacy, you are going to pay insurance for something that you no longer control but are being charged the risk, and people don't like mass transit for all the reasons that when the "man" controls all points of your transit it becomes highly inefficient even in highly efficient mass transit countries. fully autonomous vehicles = mass transit.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

A couple weeks ago, I tried out the self parking feature on my X3 for the first time...at night.

I think the hangup for most is trusting the vehicle to do what it was designed to do. That will come with time.


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## jneumann (Jan 24, 2012)

acoste said:


> When asked what Navigant's Abuelsamid thought [...]


I don't have enough time to refute each point, but will simply say if you believe that Navigant chart, you haven't done research on the actual leaders in autonomous driving.

While it does show Intel (Mobileye), it for some reason splits out VW, Volvo, JLR and others, which use a Mobileye solution. Perhaps you could explain how all of those names are ahead of Tesla in execution (including Apple, which only internal employees have any idea where they're currently at), yet have substantially less tech deployed and in use in the real world? I won't debate strategy until we have time machines, but saying Tesla has the worst execution when they have the largest fleet learning program in existence is pretty poor "judgement". I might be able to see middle of the pack, but last? Behind a half dozen companies that are only on the map because they _announced future plans_ to use Mobileye's tech? Um, no.

The Florida crash is relevant in the discussion of autonomous vehicles, but not relevant in the discussion of Tesla's (or other's) current level of the tech. First off, that car was AP1, meaning it used a Mobileye chip (EyeQ3 - circa 2014) - Tesla has since written their own 100% complete replacement for Mobileye's solution, _twice_. If you want to get into the nerdy details, someone on TMC disassembled the latest (v9) neural net and provides discussion on the differences and implications. Tesla's solution as of now is running up against the hardware limits in the cars, which will be resolved with their ASIC that will probably start shipping in cars early next year. (based on a typical chip design timeline starting with the hire of Jim Keller - design, layout, first silicon, reliability, qualification, puts production run starting sometime in the next few months)

Lastly, this has probably been said a dozen times already, but if anyone thinks the competition is gonna crush Tesla soon, I'd ask you show where the batteries will be made. Nothing currently on the horizon will reach volumes great enough to be a risk to Tesla for 5+ years. And that assumes Tesla stands still.

On a different note, keep an eye out for Apple. They're starting to get more serious about an EV and actually have the capital to throw at the problem to catch up on the battery sourcing side of things.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

acoste said:


> Investors put great pressure on Elon this year about the lack of profitability. He is in cost cutting mode big time.
> 
> https://www.dw.com/en/tesla-slashes-3000-jobs-in-cost-cutting-endeavor/a-44191563


No question.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> "While the media has been focused on Elon Musk's eccentric, outlandish and at times offensive behavior, it has failed to notice the legitimate disruption of the auto industry that is currently being DOMINATED by Tesla."
> 
> "TSLA is not just pulling customers from BMW and Mercedes but also from Toyota and Honda. Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry."
> 
> Even the most hardcore short sees the data and realizes what's happening and how contrary it is to what the media chooses to focus on.


Tesla has made a big impact for sure. No question about that. It forced other car makers to design electric cars even though it is not a profitable business yet. Several governments liked the idea a lot and now they are pushing the car makers even more towards electric by the strict emission limits in the future.

As for autonomous driving, Google was the first one to take it serious around 2010. They went to GM, asked them to join who just laughed at them. They aren't laughing now. I guess they regret that decision big time


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

Michael Schott said:


> When you say people see what they want to are you applying that to you as well?


I'm not the one claiming that factual reporting from respected financial media outlets is not "proof" of anything even slightly negative going on with the business operations of Tesla Motors. You'll have to pardon me if I choose to trust the analysis of journalists over the "ground level" reports from one fan of the company and his anecdotal observations of a limited sample size of "enthusiasts".

Though I am admittedly not a sunshine pumper or Kool-Aid drinker.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

JamesWWIII said:


> I'm not the one claiming that factual reporting from respected financial media outlets is not "proof" of anything even slightly negative going on with the business operations of Tesla Motors. You'll have to pardon me if I choose to trust the analysis of journalists over the "ground level" reports from one fan of the company and his anecdotal observations of a limited sample size of "enthusiasts".
> 
> Though I am admittedly not a sunshine pumper or Kool-Aid drinker.


My point is those links weren't conclusive of anything. The fact that Tesla is not profitable is not in question. But speculation on their future health is just that.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> My point is those links weren't conclusive of anything. The fact that Tesla is not profitable is not in question. But speculation on their future health is just that.


It appears a group of Tesla supporters believe/feel short sellers represent all of Wall Street, hence anything from Wall Street is non-sense.

In the meantime, most TSLA owners(like myself) care about any article that predicts/speculates Tesla's future health, esp. when Tesla matures from a cult following to a profitable(?) company.


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## jneumann (Jan 24, 2012)

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799


GAAP net income of $312M, non-GAAP net income of $516M

Operating income of $417M and operating margin of 6.1%

Free cash flow of $881M supported by operating cash flow of $1.4B

$3.0B of cash and cash equivalents at Q3-end, increased by $731M in Q3

Model 3 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin > 20% in Q3

Not running out of cash.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

jneumann said:


> http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799
> 
> 
> GAAP net income of $312M, non-GAAP net income of $516M
> ...


Don't they have somethings like convertible bonds & loan payments coming up?


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> Don't they have somethings like convertible bonds & loan payments coming up?


After net profit $311.5M this quarter, they now have $3B cash with $1B due in March, but most are convertible loans that - given how well Tesla is doing the majority could convert into stock. Q4 is likely to bring even more profits as they continue to streamline production and take advantage of operating leverage as production scales.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

JamesWWIII said:


> I'm not the one claiming that factual reporting from respected financial media outlets is not "proof" of anything even slightly negative going on with the business operations of Tesla Motors. You'll have to pardon me if I choose to trust the analysis of journalists over the "ground level" reports from one fan of the company and his anecdotal observations of a limited sample size of "enthusiasts".


My anecdotal evidence at the "ground level" is about the product itself, and how true car enthusiasts view it. In the end the product needs to be good/superior/disruptive. This ground level shift happened with the iPhone as well before the masses truly caught on much later.

My reasoning about how well the company is doing is based on the released data itself.

If what you believe is based solely on what you read in media outlets, then you don't have a very good idea of how the media business works in 2018.


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

paranoidroid said:


> If what you believe is based solely on what you read in media outlets, then you don't have a very good idea of how the media business works in 2018.


Yeah, yeah...I already got the gist of your point.

(Edited by MWS to remove sarcastic comment.)


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

paranoidroid said:


> After net profit $311.5M this quarter, they now have $3B cash with $1B due in March, but most are convertible loans that - given how well Tesla is doing the majority could convert into stock. Q4 is likely to bring even more profits as they continue to streamline production and take advantage of operating leverage as production scales.


Yeah the stock had a good spike after the announcement in after market trading it peaked at 5PM it was trending down again off the high by 8PM was down $15 from the peak.

Think they need to sustain a $360 share price to convert the bonds for stock & not cash.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

More competition and in crossover flavor...
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/1...ona-ev-is-a-clever-little-electric-crossover/

"Magnum this is a private line...clear off!"


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## jneumann (Jan 24, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> More competition and in crossover flavor...
> https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/1...ona-ev-is-a-clever-little-electric-crossover/
> 
> "Magnum this is a private line...clear off!"


Volume. Where's the volume?

No volume, no competition.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Model Y coming.

Rendering










https://electrek.co/2018/10/24/tesla-model-y-elon-musk-approves-prototype-production-2020/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

They definitely had a nice quarter regarding number of cars sales. Congratulation.



jneumann said:


> http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799
> 
> 
> GAAP net income of $312M, non-GAAP net income of $516M
> ...


Accounts payable rose to $3.6 billion from $3 billion at the end of the June, that offsets the increase in cash.
It means they haven't paid $600M for parts of the cars delivered yet.

However there is no short term risk any more. Long term is still unclear.

They need to repay $2.2B of long term debt next year. They will either repay this but no new factories or raise capital again and continue expanding. If the sales numbers will be fine, then they can raise more money. Which they will need for Model Y or if they want to increase the Model 3 production. So the next year's sales number will be key to survive.

Elon says: "We do not intend to raise equity or debt. At least that's our intention right now, that may change in the future."
"I think we can actually be positive cash flow and profitable for all quarters going forward, leaving aside quarters where we may need to do a significant repayment, for example in Q1 next year. But I think even in Q1, I think we can be approximately flat in cash flow by end of quarter."

This means they still expect high sales in Q1 but not sure about Q3.



jneumann said:


> Volume. Where's the volume?
> No volume, no competition.





FCBayernFTW said:


> Model Y coming.


Model 3 may not have a competitor next year in its price category. Model Y however will arrive too late. 2020 + delays. http://evadoption.com/future-evs/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> They definitely had a nice quarter regarding number of cars sales. Congratulation.
> 
> Accounts payable rose to $3.6 billion from $3 billion at the end of the June, that offsets the increase in cash.
> It means they haven't paid $600M for parts of the cars delivered yet.
> ...


2019 will be crucial for Tesla to build up its reserves and foundations to fend off the parade of alternatives in 2020.

At the same time, the G20 releasing in March 2019 also will tell(amidst 50% and then 75% cut in fed money) if customers do agree that Model 3 is the true 3-series killer. 

The volume ramp, plus the capital needed to achieve that ramp, will attract lots of focus from Wall Street in coming quarters.


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

namelessman said:


> At the same time, the G20 releasing in March 2019 also will tell(amidst 50% and then 75% cut in fed money) if customers do agree that Model 3 is the true 3-series killer.


The Tesla Model 3 isn't the 3-series killer, the X3 already took that crown.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Here is an example of the good marketing for (from) Tesla.

Analyst (DoctoRX)
quoting a professional who analyzed the car (motortrend)

"
_TSLA has a technical first-mover lead_

_"Class-leading battery pack." _

Me: They often quote that the (Tesla) Panasonic batteries have the highest density.
Yes they have. But it comes with a higher risk of fire. Other car makers picked safer materials with less energy density.

_Charging Board: This approach is unique and deemed quite savvy relative to the Chevy Bolt and BMW i3 Munro has also analyzed.
_

Me: They claim I3 can't get charged from 3 phase. This is BS. From 2017 it can.

_Pyrotechnic Battery Disconnect: This Tesla-patented device uses airbag/seat belt tensioner technology to instantly disconnect the battery in the event of a short circuit or other battery voltage spike event. The current shunt sensor helps trigger it._

Me: Well we all know BMW has this for 15-20 years. I have no idea what Tesla could patent about this.

_Charging Cord Case: The 110-volt charging cord case sticks itself to the trunk carpet so strongly that you can lift the luggage well cover off by grasping the case. This is remarkable because you can barely detect the "hooks" that are grabbing the carpet's "loops" in this micro-Velcro-like material._

Me: Wow

_Central Glycol Pump: The heart of the battery and electronics systems' heating and cooling system is this multichamber smart pump, which individually tailors flow to the battery pack, power electronics, and motor. Many other companies use multiple circuits and pumps._

Me: Why is this innovative? BMW most likely had cheap sources for pumps. There were no need for a new design. How does the user benefit from it?

Lot of false claims around Tesla as I mentioned earlier.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

BTW, this week a coworker has been driving his F82 M4 GTS(only 700 produced worldwide) back to work, lwhat a beauty:

1. frozen grey paint(not sure the name)
2. factory roll cage at rear seats(sorry no rear passengers)
3. BMW OLED tail lights(very cool)
4. leather dash
5. alcantara trim + steering wheel
6. no door pocket
7. door handle is replaced M blue+red fabric loop!
8. factory retractable front air dam
9. manual seats!
10 There is a water tank under the trunk floor cover, presumably to cool the exhaust on track!

This M car is so damn stiff, but yet so damn fast(dare not drive, just shotgun)!

And it is a true head turner too! :thumbup:

It is unclear if Tesla can really convince that many M3/M4 drivers to switch over to Model 3.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

duplicate


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

For you diy folks.... https://electrek.co/2018/10/29/tesla-parts-catalog-model-3-model-s-model-x-roadster-public/

"Magnum this is a private line...clear off!"


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

paranoidroid said:


> Cool feedback on your test drive! On the above, very interesting. I've taken mine to the limits of traction and not noticed non-linear body behavior although traction control can slightly unsettle if pushing accelerator beyond limits.
> 
> If you were taking it fast enough for TC to adjust on one of the wheels, that could possibly explain the sudden weight shift. Would be interesting if you repeated it and saw the same behavior.


I would be pretty surprised if TC was kicking in that early. Since it wasn't my car, I wasn't pushing it, and was more focused on smoothly braking (and trailing off) as I started to enter the cloverleaf. Nevertheless, like you said, I'll have to see if that behavior happens again next time.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

FaRKle! said:


> I would be pretty surprised if TC was kicking in that early. Since it wasn't my car, I wasn't pushing it, and was more focused on smoothly braking (and trailing off) as I started to enter the cloverleaf. Nevertheless, like you said, I'll have to see if that behavior happens again next time.


Gotcha. I have the Performance Spec with slightly different suspension setup so what I also not notice doesn't necessarily translate to the base RWD setup as well.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

namelessman said:


> Only BMW can pull off a 5-minute prestos of just the tail light!:thumbup:


A coworker researched the cost of retrofitting OLED light to 4-series, it is $2000+!!! :yikes:

Well it does look like Wing Gundam Zero.:thumbup:


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Tesla stopped promoting the ***8216;Full Self-Driving***8217; option for its cars


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

acoste said:


> Tesla stopped promoting the 'Full Self-Driving' option for its cars


Could also have some thing to do with "flambeing" one of your customers on the 101 and making national news. The lawsuits that come out of this case may well set some precedents as to to culpability of manufacturers when it comes to self driving vehicles. Lot of unknowns here.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

bmwexpat said:


> Could also have some thing to do with "flambeing" one of your customers on the 101 and making national news. The lawsuits that come out of this case may well set some precedents as to to culpability of manufacturers when it comes to self driving vehicles. Lot of unknowns here.


Yes.

I think what prompted this is a recent FBI investigation about the production number promises. Tesla quickly decided not to promote the self driving feature that they can't deliver in the next 5 years.

And from here it's just my imagination but I think the FBI investigation may be routed back to the Board of Directors who are pretty pissed about Elon. If you recall SEC wanted to forbid Elon to lead any public company at first. Someone wants him out.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Yes.
> 
> I think what prompted this is a recent FBI investigation about the production number promises. Tesla quickly decided not to promote the self driving feature that they can't deliver in the next 5 years.
> 
> And from here it's just my imagination but I think the FBI investigation may be routed back to the Board of Directors who are pretty pissed about Elon. If you recall SEC wanted to forbid Elon to lead any public company at first. Someone wants him out.


Hundreds of millions spent on the god chip project(the new heart and soul of next gen FSD) and now Tesla decides to (reluctantly?) back off from FSD. This one chip will probably incur $1k R&D amortized cost for the next 250k Tesla sold.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Hundreds of millions spent on the god chip project(the new heart and soul of next gen FSD) and now Tesla decides to (reluctantly?) back off from FSD. This one chip will probably incur $1k R&D amortized cost for the next 250k Tesla sold.


It was clear in the Q3 call the chips are taped out and in preproduction boards and in testing for release next year.

FSD can still be ordered, but off menu so it's certainly not a legal thing to have them gone or otherwise you wouldn't be able to still order it. My guess is Tesla didn't want to rack up the number of cars they will need to upgrade for a free board swap once they release the new AI chip. This will clog an already very busy service queue.

That said, I do think keeping FSD off menu is a better move for customers who may not realize the time or difficulty involved to finally achieve this goal.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

acoste said:


> And from here it's just my imagination but I think the FBI investigation may be routed back to the Board of Directors who are pretty pissed about Elon. If you recall SEC wanted to forbid Elon to lead any public company at first. Someone wants him out.


Quite an imagination. Just a bit of critical thinking instead and you'll realize nothing will come out of this "FBI investigation". You can quote me here in a few months if I'm wrong.

They will have to prove Tesla intentionally pushed numbers they knew they could not achieve in order to mislead investors.

The reality is, like most new engineering projects they ran into a large string of unforeseen difficulties.

It's not like Elon chose or wished to go through production hell.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> FSD can still be ordered, but off menu so it's certainly not a legal thing to have them gone or otherwise you wouldn't be able to still order it. My guess is Tesla didn't want to rack up the number of cars they will need to upgrade for a free board swap once they release the new AI chip. This will clog an already very busy service queue.


I didn't mean the authorities asked them, I think they want to avoid another investigation about this function.

Or the current software is just too far from self driving. I wish they made this autopilot illegal:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=17&v=YUnRTNdxMGk

around 0:30>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIqWBjM1LTw


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

acoste said:


> I didn't mean the authorities asked them, I think they want to avoid another investigation about this function.
> 
> Or the current software is just too far from self driving. I wish they made this autopilot illegal:


Yea, current FSD is far away. When I purchased it, I didn't think it was b/c it would happen soon but rather I wanted to be able to test any new features that could be released under new hardware or the FSD umbrella. And it puts them on the hook for delivering the final features even if it takes 20 free hardware upgrades for me. But I agree it can be confusing/misleading to customers who may expect to get this feature soon.

On the above, that is a new regression from the recent update (with deployment of completely new neural net) and it's bad. When the line disappears it think it merged into one.

Tesla states AP is to be only used for divided highways - "The system is intended for highway use.", but the issue is the system doesn't prevent you from roads like this and it has worked well before so a new issue can catch folks off guard. I would never use it in two lane w/oncoming traffic like that. When new issues are found (or even without) I really think Tesla should remotely disallow its use in areas that present a higher risk to the driver.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I didn't mean the authorities asked them, I think they want to avoid another investigation about this function.
> 
> Or the current software is just too far from self driving. I wish they made this autopilot illegal.


These are not good at all. Video evidence like these(which matches with NHTSA's findings) will not help Tesla's defense in the Mountain View fatal crash.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> On the above, that is a new regression from the recent update (with deployment of completely new neural net) and it's bad. When the line disappears it think it merged into one.
> 
> Tesla states AP is to be only used for divided highways - "The system is intended for highway use.", but the issue is the system doesn't prevent you from roads like this and it has worked well before so a new issue can catch folks off guard. I would never use it in two lane w/oncoming traffic like that. When new issues are found (or even without) I really think Tesla should remotely disallow its use in areas that present a higher risk to the driver.


Yes I read it that the new ones are getting trained. Maybe it's related. It's triggered by the discontinuity of the center divider and then it appears it goes into a simulator mode or something, ignores the environment. It shows a left curve on the main road.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> It was clear in the Q3 call the chips are taped out and in preproduction boards and in testing for release next year.


Even though the chip is done and ready, its NRE of, say, $250m, technically still factors into the cost per unit. Shipping 250k of that chip still means even car sold needs to carry a $1k R&D cost, for that one single component.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Earlier I said that I really liked the M4 in curves. I drove the 2018 model only, I haven't driven the older ones. 
And just accidentally bumped into a motortrend review about it and saw that there was an improvement from 2017 to 2018. See attached images.

People seem to like the new Gxx cars' handling. I think they solved this steering feel issue for those and for the latest M4. I heard an interview with a BMW director who said they never want to hear again that the E46 was the best.


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## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

acoste said:


> Earlier I said that I really liked the M4 in curves. I drove the 2018 model only, I haven't driven the older ones.
> And just accidentally bumped into a motortrend review about it and saw that there was an improvement from 2017 to 2018. See attached images.
> 
> People seem to like the new Gxx cars' handling. I think they solved this steering feel issue for those and for the latest M4. I heard an interview with a BMW director who said they never want to hear again that the E46 was the best.


The E46 M3 is one of the best loved BMW's of the last 20 years. In it's day there was no question that it was the top dog in the sport sedan segment. Even today if I show up at a BMW event with my E46 M3, I will get more positive comments about the car than the current F80 M3/M4's. No question the current F80's are fast competent and modern sport sedans but after driving one for 30 minutes last year it was easy to walk away from it. Some where along the way, BMW forgot how to make their M cars special.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

And another accident due to the weakness of the hardware configuration I mentioned. This is becoming too frequent.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/man-sues-tesla-says-autopilot-steered-him-into-a-stalled-car-at-80-mph/


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

acoste said:


> And another accident due to the weakness of the hardware configuration I mentioned. This is becoming too frequent.
> 
> https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/man-sues-tesla-says-autopilot-steered-him-into-a-stalled-car-at-80-mph/


I think this is a fail in whoever sold the car to him, or he was unaware of the capabilities. I think Tesla should force a mandatory training video before a new driver would enable AP, with a signed digital signature acknowledging limitations. He bought the car thinking he could get work done on his commute and was looking at his phone at the time:

https://www.apnews.com/5370559e04424691ad7839f7cabd84b3

"Hudson, who lives in Orlando but has a two-hour commute to Fort Pierce for his job as the general manager of a Nissan dealership, said the autopilot feature appealed to him because he could get some work done during his commute. Hudson had his hands on the wheel as the car traveled 80 miles per hour (125 kph) but he also was looking at his phone in the moments before his Model S slammed into the unoccupied Ford Fiesta, he said."


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> I think this is a fail in whoever sold the car to him, or he was unaware of the capabilities. I think Tesla should force a mandatory training video before a new driver would enable AP, with a signed digital signature acknowledging limitations. He bought the car thinking he could get work done on his commute and was looking at his phone at the time:
> 
> https://www.apnews.com/5370559e04424691ad7839f7cabd84b3
> 
> "Hudson, who lives in Orlando but has a two-hour commute to Fort Pierce for his job as the general manager of a Nissan dealership, said the autopilot feature appealed to him because he could get some work done during his commute. Hudson had his hands on the wheel as the car traveled 80 miles per hour (125 kph) but he also was looking at his phone in the moments before his Model S slammed into the unoccupied Ford Fiesta, he said."


Yes. People need to be educated. The warning messages on the screen aren't enough. People just click ok and ignore them.
One of the research showed 28% of people (everyone, not Tesla owners) think Tesla is a self driving car. So the buyers should be educated.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

FaRKle! said:


> ^That's a pretty ridiculous statement trying to belittle the severity of drunk and passed out driving just because the car has "driver assistance." There should be NO DRIVING PERIOD while drunk. He failed a field sobriety test! That's not an, "I only had one beer tonight." kind of situation.


That's not at all what I'm saying. Of course people should not drive drunk. You completely missed my point.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Link in post#2495 said CHP followed for 7 miles before getting the car to stop. At 70mph that was 6 minutes! Apparently the gentleman is planning commissioner of Los Altos.


They don't know yet if the driver was on autopilot.

At 70mph you must indicate activity to autopilot by wiggling the wheel or toggling some buttons about once every 45s-1m. Otherwise it'll turn the hazards on and slowly come to a stop.

It's not possible for autopilot to be running for minutes at a time with the driver asleep.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> They don't know yet if the driver was on autopilot.
> 
> At 70mph you must indicate activity to autopilot by wiggling the wheel or toggling some buttons about once every 45s-1m. Otherwise it'll turn the hazards on and slowly come to a stop.
> 
> It's not possible for autopilot to be running for minutes at a time with the driver asleep.


How a driver could miss patrol's lights in the dark if he wasn't sleeping?

It was learned the hard way in the railroad industry that drivers can sleep and still be able to push a button or pull a handle or whatever safety check was built in whenever there is an audio alert for it.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> They don't know yet if the driver was on autopilot.
> 
> At 70mph you must indicate activity to autopilot by wiggling the wheel or toggling some buttons about once every 45s-1m. Otherwise it'll turn the hazards on and slowly come to a stop.
> 
> It's not possible for autopilot to be running for minutes at a time with the driver asleep.


The news article quoted in post#2500(wow, 2500 posts ....) says CHP saw the driver apparently asleep on the wheel.

So if the driver does hold on to steering wheel while asleep(or maybe even with head resting on steering wheel), will that beat the system(in terms of wiggling/toggling every 45s-1m)?

Tesla should have reams of logs on the exact sequence of events in this case.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> How a driver could miss patrol's lights in the dark if he wasn't sleeping?
> 
> It was learned the hard way in the railroad industry that drivers can sleep and still be able to push a button or pull a handle or whatever safety check was built in whenever there is an audio alert for it.


CR already reports this issue by not giving top spot to Tesla's partially automated driving system:

"In CR's testing we found that Cadillac's Super Cruise's eye-tracking technology ensures that the driver's eyes are open and looking forward toward the road. None of the other systems we tested use eye tracking; rather, they prompt the driver to hold on to, or apply pressure to, the steering wheel. This is an insufficient way of measuring driver attention, *and it provides little assurance that the driver is even awake*. *Because of the impressive ability of Tesla's Autopilot to keep the vehicle centered in its lane, it's easy for drivers to become overreliant on it*. Pilot Assist from Volvo and Nissan's ProPilot Assist are far less capable, and that forces drivers to stay involved with steering, or risk leaving the lane on all but the straightest roads."

Some posters in this thread brushed aside CR's rating on Tesla, they may think this type of reports is greatly extrapolating things and exaggerating into worst case scenarios. Oh well.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The news article quoted in post#2500(wow, 2500 posts ....) says CHP saw the driver apparently asleep on the wheel.
> 
> So if the driver does hold on to steering wheel while asleep(or maybe even with head resting on steering wheel), will that beat the system(in terms of wiggling/toggling every 45s-1m)?
> 
> Tesla should have reams of logs on the exact sequence of events in this case.


Perhaps he was beating the system somehow, no one knows yet.

There are over 100,000 crashes/year from drivers falling asleep at the wheel. NHTSA says 6000 people died in US alone from falling asleep at the wheel.

7-10k drunk driving fatalities a year in USA.

The question is not whether you should drive when drunk or drowsy enough to fall asleep - the answer is obvious. People already do this in alarming rates despite decades of campaigning the dangers.

The question is what can we do to bring these rates down.

If Tesla Autopilot kept the car from crashing and come to a safe stop while he was asleep or drunk then the car could have saved this man's life from his error of judgement.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> CR already reports this issue by not giving top spot to Tesla's partially automated driving system:
> 
> "In CR's testing we found that Cadillac's Super Cruise's eye-tracking technology ensures that the driver's eyes are open and looking forward toward the road. None of the other systems we tested use eye tracking; rather, they prompt the driver to hold on to, or apply pressure to, the steering wheel. This is an insufficient way of measuring driver attention, *and it provides little assurance that the driver is even awake*. *Because of the impressive ability of Tesla's Autopilot to keep the vehicle centered in its lane, it's easy for drivers to become overreliant on it*. Pilot Assist from Volvo and Nissan's ProPilot Assist are far less capable, and that forces drivers to stay involved with steering, or risk leaving the lane on all but the straightest roads."
> 
> Some posters in this thread brushed aside CR's rating on Tesla, they may think this type of reports is greatly extrapolating things and exaggerating into worst case scenarios. Oh well.


Your car today provides *zero* assurance you are either sober or awake. Given the 13,000-16,000 deaths (and many times more crashes) a year in the US alone from either falling asleep at the wheel or drunk driving - how do you feel about putting breathalyzers and attention monitoring devices into every car sold today by law? If you feel this is an extremely important feature for autopilot, it will be orders of magnitude more important for every car today (autopilot or not) given the fatality rates we currently see every year on standard cars.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> The question is what can we do to bring these rates down.
> 
> If Tesla Autopilot kept the car from crashing and come to a safe stop while he was asleep or drunk then the car could have saved this man's life from his error of judgement.


The counter argument is that if this kind of system(esp. without eye tracking) gives a false sense of security/invincibility to irresponsible drivers that will be just as deadly.

Do note this gentleman was lucky to be spotted by a CHP officer who risked his life to safely stop the car. This gentleman was out for at least 7 miles and 6 minutes during this fiasco, and required CHP officers to wake him once stopped.

Without CHP spotting him, this could have ended very badly, and possibly hurting other motorists too.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Your car today provides *zero* assurance you are either sober or awake. Given the 13,000-16,000 deaths (and many times more crashes) a year in the US alone from either falling asleep at the wheel or drunk driving - how do you feel about putting breathalyzers and attention monitoring devices into every car sold today by law? If you feel this is an extremely important feature for autopilot, it will be orders of magnitude more important for every car today (autopilot or not) given the fatality rates we currently see every year on standard cars.


Human behavior and unintended consequence are hard to predict.

Your assumption is that systems similar to Tela's EAP will reduce crashes from irresponsible drivers.

My assertion is that there can also be a possibility that this kind of systems may increase the pool of irresponsible drivers.

Time will tell how the stats will play out, and if you and/or I will be part(s) of which stats.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> The counter argument is that if this kind of system(esp. without eye tracking) gives a false sense of security/invincibility to irresponsible drivers that will be just as deadly.


The current stats show even without tech involved - we fall asleep and drunk drive with fatalities at rates of thousands a month in the US.

Do you have an argument for why we should not have every car come standard with a breathalyzer and attention monitoring device?

Surely the section of population that are irresponsible enough who are already doing this today is orders of magnitude larger than Tesla owners who are irresponsible with autopilot.



namelessman said:


> Do note this gentleman was lucky to be spotted by a CHP officer who risked his life to safely stop the car. This gentleman was out for at least 7 miles and 6 minutes during this fiasco, and required CHP officers to wake him once stopped.
> 
> Without CHP spotting him, this could have ended very badly, and possibly hurting other motorists too.


If autopilot was involved, then how long would he have lasted in another car? If AP drove itself somehow until CHP was able to rescue him, how long would a non-AP car lasted without injuring him or someone else when he fell asleep?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> If autopilot was involved, then how long would he have lasted in another car? If AP drove itself somehow until CHP was able to rescue him, how long would a non-AP car lasted without injuring him or someone else when he fell asleep?


So enhanced autopilot/autosteer needs to be explicitly enabled each time the car is started, correct?

If autopilot was indeed involved, this gentleman did go through a number of steps before falling asleep.

If a Tesla driver is not so reliant/overconfident on EAP, or EAP is not available, he/she may not even get into the car.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> If a Tesla driver is not so reliant/overconfident on EAP, or EAP is not available, he/she may not even get into the car.


Drinking brings overconfidence for regular driving as well.
However driving assist systems make people more sleepy.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> My assertion is that there can also be a possibility that this kind of systems may increase the pool of irresponsible drivers.


With every new capability there will be a pool to bring in ways of being irresponsible with that capability.

I'm not against better monitoring and alertness devices for autopilot, we should find ways to limit irresponsibility.

But if you're going to be harping on the nannies, then you might admit we should bring those same nannies to every car sold to have a real effect on our statistics - as our current fatality rates with drunk and fall asleep driving is something akin to 99.9999% of cars that have nothing to do with autopilot.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> With every new capability there will be a pool to bring in ways of being irresponsible with that capability.
> 
> I'm not against better monitoring and alertness devices for autopilot, we should find ways to limit irresponsibility.
> 
> But if you're going to be harping on the nannies, then you might admit we should bring those same nannies to every car sold to have a real effect on our statistics - as our current fatality rates with drunk and fall asleep driving is something akin to 99.9999% of cars that have nothing to do with autopilot.


Tesla's EAP is meant to be cutting edge that eventually can be trickled down to other cars.

E.g. modern TIR rain sensor wipers were pioneered by Cadillac(?) and now become standard features in virtually all cars. Tesla recently eliminated the need for those sensors by switching to cameras instead.

Delivering a subpar EAP that can induce over-reliance(just like CR says) is not that cool.

My thinking is that eye monitoring like the Cadillac one is a simple and basic feature that can be added to all cars. Apparently there are new-age eye scanning apps to detect BAC as well.

Similar to now-standard safety features like rear view camera, seat belts, DLR, etc, etc, it is a matter of level-headed (like yours) policy makers that make things happen.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Quite a few techs are chasing the drowsiness issues:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/automobiles/wheels/drowsy-driving-technology.html


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

I wish the eye monitoring was standard. The most crazy situation I have been is when all 3 lanes were blocked at a traffic light for a good 10 seconds when it switched to green, because all 3 in the front were on their phones....


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I wish the eye monitoring was standard. The most crazy situation I have been is when all 3 lanes were blocked at a traffic light for a good 10 seconds when it switched to green, because all 3 in the front were on their phones....


These are good videos of Cadillac super cruise(the 2nd one compares Tesla EAP versus Cadillac super cruise in early 2018).

From the description it say when super cruise dis-engages without driver feedback, the car will come to a safe stop, apparently including pulling to the side of road. If that system can truly do that, Mr. Samek could have avoided a boatload of legal issues driving Cadillac instead of Tesla on that stretch of road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SK_YIQ7TD8Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWbM2XG9fUg


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

It looks like Trump may consider ending federal electric car rebates

The timing coincides with Tesla and GM running out of rebate quotas, while the Germans and others are on the verge of finally utilizing their rebate quotas to grab market shares.


----------



## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

acoste said:


> It was learned the hard way in the railroad industry that drivers can sleep and still be able to push a button or pull a handle or whatever safety check was built in whenever there is an audio alert for it.


Plenty of people (including myself) have learned this is possible by hitting the snooze button on an alarm clock many times without ever fully waking up. I wish it wasn't the case, but I've done it more times than I can remember.


----------



## bmwexpat (Aug 30, 2015)

namelessman said:


> It looks like Trump may consider ending federal electric car rebates
> 
> The timing coincides with Tesla and GM running out of rebate quotas, while the Germans and others are on the verge of finally utilizing their rebate quotas to grab market shares.


The EV rebates are written into the current tax code and can not be changed by Executive order. Will take both houses of congress to make a change. Do not see that happening within the next 2-3 years.


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## FrontHeadlock (Dec 5, 2018)

No offense to any Tesla owners, and I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but my God, if the Tesla isn't the ugliest luxury sedan in the market, then it's the second ugliest.

Even putting aside one's thoughts on electric vs ICE, the car is just so ugly that i laughed when I got in one.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

FrontHeadlock said:


> No offense to any Tesla owners, and I know beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but my God, if the Tesla isn't the ugliest luxury sedan in the market, then it's the second ugliest.
> 
> Even putting aside one's thoughts on electric vs ICE, the car is just so ugly that i laughed when I got in one.


No offense on my end - it's all subjective  I personally think it's sleek and sexy AF. Although maybe a bit too Porsche-Panamera-esque as many have confused mine for it. Definitely a different look than latest BMWs though, more understated (and I personally preferred the more classy & understated styling of the older bimmers too).


----------



## FrontHeadlock (Dec 5, 2018)

paranoidroid said:


> No offense on my end - it's all subjective  I personally think it's sleek and sexy AF. Although maybe a bit too Porsche-Panamera-esque as many have asked if it was that. Definitely a different look than latest BMWs though - and I preferred the more understated styling of the older bimmers too.


Showing only the exterior of a Tesla is a bit like a fat girl uploading only head shots on Tinder.


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## Elk (Apr 28, 2012)

paranoidroid said:


> Although maybe a bit too Porsche-Panamera-esque . . .


I never expected to see this cited as a good thing.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

Elk said:


> I never expected to see this cited as a good thing.


Oh I'm not saying it is. The Panamera is just the wrong look for Porsche. I do love their sleek iconic designs though (911, Cayman).

I got into bimmers a long time ago because it was the classy understated sport-sedan. BMW has grown into much more of a luxury statement these days and along with it their looks have grown a bit too gaudy in my eyes. So I can certainly see the demographics they appeal to today may be looking for something completely different than I am.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

FrontHeadlock said:


> Showing only the exterior of a Tesla is a bit like a fat girl uploading only head shots on Tinder.


I'm a huge fan of the interior. But I get it's a very polarizing design.


----------



## Elk (Apr 28, 2012)

The Panamera is not a good looking car, but the new one is much better than the old.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

paranoidroid said:


> I'm a huge fan of the interior. But I get it's a very polarizing design.


I agree. We are used to conventional interiors and especially dashboards with the radio and HVAC in the center in their own pods and the speedo and tach in front of the driver. Audi and others are moving away from this and towards digital displays but Tesla has taken it to the next level. I like the clean modern design they use.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> I'm a huge fan of the interior. But I get it's a very polarizing design.


For those who paid attention, Model 3's interior design is eerily similar to johnny cab's [email protected]:58. 

"The door opened, you got in."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWgrvNHjKkY


----------



## FrontHeadlock (Dec 5, 2018)

Michael Schott said:


> I agree. We are used to conventional interiors and especially dashboards with the radio and HVAC in the center in their own pods and the speedo and tach in front of the driver. Audi and others are moving away from this and towards digital displays but Tesla has taken it to the next level. I like the clean modern design they use.


To me it's not that it's unconventional. It's more that i hesitate to use the word "design" at all because there isn't any. It looks like something a 1st grader would cook up, with a steering wheel, a few straight lines, and a giant TV. No thought, no beauty, no craftsmanship to any degree. Completely horrific aesthetically.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

FrontHeadlock said:


> To me it's not that it's unconventional. It's more that i hesitate to use the word "design" at all because there isn't any. It looks like something a 1st grader would cook up, with a steering wheel, a few straight lines, and a giant TV. No thought, no beauty, no craftsmanship to any degree. Completely horrific aesthetically.


Tastes differ. To me it looks clean and elegant. More Scandinavian as opposed to German.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

FrontHeadlock said:


> To me it's not that it's unconventional. It's more that i hesitate to use the word "design" at all because there isn't any. It looks like something a 1st grader would cook up, with a steering wheel, a few straight lines, and a giant TV. No thought, no beauty, no craftsmanship to any degree. Completely horrific aesthetically.


They had to keep the costs down since the $35k model is at great challenge. And this was an easy solution for it (get rid of all buttons and don't integrate the screen in the dash). Missing instrument panel behind the steering wheel is a drawback. And when I walk in front of a parked Model 3 I have the impression it is a police car with a laptop mounted there.

I think Audi makes the best interior nowadays.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> They had to keep the costs down since the $35k model is at great challenge. And this was an easy solution for it (get rid of all buttons and don't integrate the screen in the dash). Missing instrument panel behind the steering wheel is a drawback. And when I walk in front of a parked Model 3 I have the impression it is a police car with a laptop mounted there.
> 
> I think Audi makes the best interior nowadays.


In addition to cost cutting, Model 3 fits the vision of self driving people haulers that autonomously merge and exit highways, and traveling within one foot of each others at 65mph. 

In that "the door opened, you got in" context, there is no need for driver engagement and instrumentation. Tesla's investment of hundreds of millions to develop god chip and misc. enhance auto-pilot and FSD fit into that vision, although the solution space still overwhelms the tech and hence Telsa's retrenching.

In a way, the much taunted handling and driving dynamics is a by product of the electric go-cart configuration, which is not difficult to master esp. from heavyweights like Porsche and others.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FrontHeadlock said:


> To me it's not that it's unconventional. It's more that i hesitate to use the word "design" at all because there isn't any. It looks like something a 1st grader would cook up, with a steering wheel, a few straight lines, and a giant TV. No thought, no beauty, no craftsmanship to any degree. Completely horrific aesthetically.


One person's "horrific" is another person's clean and elegant.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

FrontHeadlock said:


> To me it's not that it's unconventional. It's more that i hesitate to use the word "design" at all because there isn't any. It looks like something a 1st grader would cook up, with a steering wheel, a few straight lines, and a giant TV. No thought, no beauty, no craftsmanship to any degree. Completely horrific aesthetically.


When I get into any of my other cars now, it feels retro in a way using an old Nokia or Blackberry feels with all the buttons everywhere.

I describe it as sitting a nice clean uncluttered desk vs. a messy one.

There are ergonomic disadvantage of having everything consolidated to one display so it's not perfect - but the minimalism in the Tesla really clears my head and lets me just focus on the driving. I believe if many people used it for a month then went to something else they will feel the same way.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> In a way, the much taunted handling and driving dynamics is a by product of the electric go-cart configuration, which is not difficult to master esp. from heavyweights like Porsche and others.


There are plenty of electric skateboard platform EVs (where you get the low CG & small polar moment of inertia for free) but they don't handle nearly as well. It's combined with a very good suspension design in front and rear.

No doubt Porsche can replicate and improve, and other manufacturers too if they prioritize it.

The Germans will struggle in software, electronics and user interface/experience. Germany is not known for slick consumer electronics and consumer software. The Audi E-tron's system looks par-for-course clunky and like it came from 2007:

https://youtu.be/HvwYokZWHOk?t=55


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> I agree, however as an anecdote, the ***8220;stop and go traffic***8221; feature does wonders for my frustration in heavy traffic. Am I ready for full auto? I don***8217;t think so, but partial is an enhancement IMHO.


After a couple more weeks of driving the car, I do like the traffic aware cruise control. It works very well, slowing down and speeding up about when I would without it. The autosteer is not for me however. It just doesn't drive like a good human driver, and seems to be lacking in anticipation. I find it stressful.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Regarding the thread topic, I don't think the Model 3 is the 3 series killer, but I do think it will hurt the 3 series. If Tesla can ever get the $35k Model 3 out, the hurt will be substantial.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> There are plenty of electric skateboard platform EVs (where you get the low CG & small polar moment of inertia for free) but they don't handle nearly as well. It's combined with a very good suspension design in front and rear.
> 
> No doubt Porsche can replicate and improve, and other manufacturers too if they prioritize it.
> 
> The Germans will struggle in software, electronics and user interface/experience. Germany is not known for slick consumer electronics and consumer software. The Audi E-tron's system looks par-for-course clunky and like it came from 2007:


My thinking is that customers are aspired by fancy electronics but will be sold on competent handling and driving dynamics(at reasonable price premium).

So in spite of hohum autopilot and non-existent FSD(yet), customers still pick Model 3 for its perceived value.

When the Germans start delivering competent EV(and/or even ICE) handling and driving dynamics, the competitive landscape will level off.


----------



## Markydee11 (Oct 21, 2011)

namelessman said:


> So the news says today the first 30 Model 3 will be delivered. It looks like Musk is on schedule this time.
> 
> Will prospective F30 buyers/lessees choose Model 3 instead?


Have any of you driven one yet?

I just drove a model 3, and was very impressed...Plus, the Tesla is most likely the best car for any road trip...lots of cabin space, two trunks, network of superchargers that charge you car in under 30 minutes...

Musk does it again!!!!


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## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

Interesting article about what it has taken to get the Model 3 to the point it is at today...

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Yes those among my contracts that expected $35k before $7500 fed + CA incentives have mostly moved on, e.g. Bolt, Clarity hydrogen for EVs, and Clarity plug-in hybrid too. The economy of scale should drive down the prices when inventory starts to accumulate, unless those local lots gets all shipped to Europe or something.
> 
> My take is that for those without forced events, e.g. lease ends, cars broken down, it is a fair strategy to wait. In fact, a few at work are just waiting for Model 3 leases, which bypass most long-term concerns esp. for supposedly high tech toys like Tesla.


I'd probably try a Model 3 now if leasing was available at reasonable rates.

I'm not sure why it's not, the Tesla's hold their value very well used.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> I'd probably try a Model 3 now if leasing was available at reasonable rates.
> 
> I'm not sure why it's not, the Tesla's hold their value very well used.


Tesla doesn't do direct leasing like most manufacturers do, they partner with a bank like Citi or Chase who underwrites the lease and usually Tesla has to subsidize the lease to some level.

Another wrinkle is that Tesla has no interest in being in the used car business so the cars they get returned on lease usually just go straight to auction and more than likely are break-even at best for Tesla.

Considering all of this is a money loser for Tesla and they are still selling nearly all of their production I would suspect that the push into leasing will start in Q1 2019 when the federal tax credit is cut in 1/2. By then, Tesla should be able to lower costs on Model 3 enough to mostly offset several thousand dollars in lease support that they will need to do in order to make the Model 3 lease competitive.


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla doesn't do direct leasing like most manufacturers do, they partner with a bank like Citi or Chase who underwrites the lease and usually Tesla has to subsidize the lease to some level.
> 
> Another wrinkle is that Tesla has no interest in being in the used car business so the cars they get returned on lease usually just go straight to auction and more than likely are break-even at best for Tesla.
> 
> Considering all of this is a money loser for Tesla and they are still selling nearly all of their production I would suspect that the push into leasing will start in Q1 2019 when the federal tax credit is cut in 1/2. By then, Tesla should be able to lower costs on Model 3 enough to mostly offset several thousand dollars in lease support that they will need to do in order to make the Model 3 lease competitive.


That's good to know, thanks! I can easily wait until then just hope the prices are reasonable.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> I'd probably try a Model 3 now if leasing was available at reasonable rates.
> 
> I'm not sure why it's not, the Tesla's hold their value very well used.


Unlike BMW, Tesla currently does not have a captive finance arm.

Non-captive banks need to be comfortable with RV 3 years down the road to bite.

As a reference, current Model S 75D lease on Tesla's website seems to be around 55% RV:

MSRP $78k
$963 monthly
5.75%
3-year 10k/year
$7k down, $8658 out the door.

BTW, this is a thread from a year ago about Tesla lease(e.g. how fed credit affects RV, but Model 3 won't have to deal with this).

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/lease-question-federal-tax-credit.98574/


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Here is another lease thread, some posters aren't that impressed.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/anyone-have-teslas-actual-leasing-numbers.125590/


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Here is another lease thread, some posters aren't that impressed.
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/anyone-have-teslas-actual-leasing-numbers.125590/


Tesla is not going to effectively compete on leasing with a company like BMW that does thousands of leases a month and is willing to take a big hit to the pocketbook to subsidize those leases in the form of below prime MF and inflated residuals.

BMW is buying brand loyalty by offering good lease deals for American serial leasing customers, especially in California.

They are also padding their used fleet by cherry picking the best lease return cars and offering them up for sale at lease end (this is what happened to my low mileage 340i lease return). When BMW instead sends a lease return to auction they usually lose money on it. Tesla have no interest apparently in being used car dealership.

Tesla might get there at some point when they are cranking out 10,000 Model 3 a week but they are not there at this point in time.

I would expect leasing a $45,000 MR Model 3 to probably cost around $500-$600 a month when Tesla unveils leasing soon. If Tesla are smart (and they are) they will advertise the lease price and then show in conjunction how much the leasee will save on gasoline over the period of the lease and use that as a carrot to get them to swallow the higher lease payment.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Yes those among my contracts that expected $35k before $7500 fed + CA incentives have mostly moved on, e.g. Bolt, Clarity hydrogen for EVs, and Clarity plug-in hybrid too. The economy of scale should drive down the prices when inventory starts to accumulate, unless those local lots gets all shipped to Europe or something.
> 
> My take is that for those without forced events, e.g. lease ends, cars broken down, it is a fair strategy to wait. In fact, a few at work are just waiting for Model 3 leases, which bypass most long-term concerns esp. for supposedly high tech toys like Tesla.


Kind of sad that the car with the highest US content, loses its subsidy while that subsidy is there for the foreign competition coming in 2019. Congress should either get rid of the subsidy all together or make it good for everyone up to a given date.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

SR22pilot said:


> Kind of sad that the car with the highest US content, loses its subsidy while that subsidy is there for the foreign competition coming in 2019. Congress should either get rid of the subsidy all together or make it good for everyone up to a given date.


Agreed. Rewarding laggards when Tesla and GM bet the farm on electric doesn't seem right.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Kind of sad that the car with the highest US content, loses its subsidy while that subsidy is there for the foreign competition coming in 2019. Congress should either get rid of the subsidy all together or make it good for everyone up to a given date.


Many have criticized the subsidies favor those who can afford the high early adapter prices on these next gen EVs.

My view though is that the subsidies are meant to assist each automaker(domestic or otherwise) to attain economy of scale(e.g. 200k units plus *unlimited* units at phase-out periods), and then pass down the savings to subsequent customers, esp. US taxpayers who cough up billions to get each automaker(who is willing to participate) to that point.

Eliminating subsidies by a given date seems fair, as it encourages risk takers and pioneers.

The tricky part though, how to decide when to cut?

Most think Tesla is so ahead that EV/alternate energy is a sure thing, but it is still way too early to tell. By cutting subsidies now, the next big thing(domestic or otherwise), e.g. flux capacitor with 1.21 gigawatts, may not happen!


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla is not going to effectively compete on leasing with a company like BMW that does thousands of leases a month and is willing to take a big hit to the pocketbook to subsidize those leases in the form of below prime MF and inflated residuals.
> 
> BMW is buying brand loyalty by offering good lease deals for American serial leasing customers, especially in California.
> 
> ...


At these prices I would be very interested...I think I'd save $150/month on my current C400 in gas cost, so $600/month payment would be ok. Need to drive one. I tested a Model S last year wasn't impressed, felt way too big inside like a minivan.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

sr5959 said:


> At these prices I would be very interested...I think I***8217;d save $150/month on my current C400 in gas cost, so $600/month payment would be ok. Need to drive one. I tested a Model S last year wasn***8217;t impressed, felt way too big inside like a minivan.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


If scaled from numbers from post#2585, a $50k Tesla with $4500 down(scaled from $7000) can be leased for $620 monthly(scaled from $962), except those numbers in post#2585 includes $7500 fed credit.

So let's say, $4000 credit will be gone by the time Model 3 lease is available. At 50-55% RV, another $2000 cost will be needed, or $6500 down, $6500/36 = $180 extra per month.

So the effectively monthly will be around $620 + $180 = $800.

It is possible Tesla can provide incentives to drop the monthly to $600, such incentives will be equivalent to price drops.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> If scaled from numbers from post#2585, a $50k Tesla with $4500 down(scaled from $7000) can be leased for $620 monthly(scaled from $962), except those numbers in post#2585 includes $7500 fed credit.
> 
> So let's say, $4000 credit will be gone by the time Model 3 lease is available. At 50-55% RV, another $2000 cost will be needed, or $6500 down, $6500/36 = $180 extra per month.
> 
> ...


What does it matter if they subsidize their leases to keep their pipeline full and keep getting their costs down?

It's exactly how BMW has been beating other luxury automakers for years.... by not necessarily building the ultimate driving machine but by building the ultimate lease machine.

For a $45,000 Model 3 (Medium range rear wheel drive, not sure where you are coming up with $50,000 they don't make LR RWD any longer) + 60% residual + 6% interest rate the payments are $682 with nothing down and no tax credit accounted for.

More than likely Tesla will slightly subsidize the residual and possibly buy down the MF from a big bank they do a lot of business with, I'm pretty sure the lease payment will be in the ball park of $600 or so a month.

And as mentioned that won't account for the $100-$200 most people will save on gasoline.

Most owners will want to at least spend the money to put a 220V outlet in their garage which will run anywhere from $200 to $2000 depending on how complex the installation is.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> More than likely Tesla will slightly subsidize the residual and possibly buy down the MF from a big bank they do a lot of business with, I'm pretty sure the lease payment will be in the ball park of $600 or so a month.
> 
> And as mentioned that won't account for the $100-$200 most people will save on gasoline.


Leasing will come after the demand drops below the manufacturing capacity. 
I don't think Tesla will subsidize the leases until the margins grow to a reasonable number. As long as the margin is very thin, they could lose all their profits on subsidized leases.

They will say something like

"
Leases start from $600/month*

*if you include gas saving
"


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> What does it matter if they subsidize their leases to keep their pipeline full and keep getting their costs down?
> 
> It's exactly how BMW has been beating other luxury automakers for years.... by not necessarily building the ultimate driving machine but by building the ultimate lease machine.


Yes when lease subsidies start to kick in, there can be cash/finance incentives too, just like BMW. So in general price cuts look plausible.

So the strategy of wait and see appears to be prudent to most.

And yes at least a 60A 220V is needed, so that can add extra cost.


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Just sat in a 3 at the mall showroom. I like the clean interior, seats and steering wheel are good, but is it normal when closing the door for that tinny, clanging sound and vibration? That was very disappointing.


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So BMW and Porsche fast charging now can charge at 3x rate of Tesla's supercharger. That is pretty good.

https://bmwi.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1564276
https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/glob...ly-powered-vehicles-of-the-future?language=en

"The prototype of a charging station with a capacity of up to 450 kW was inaugurated in Jettingen-Scheppach, Bavaria. At this ultra-fast charging station, electrically powered research vehicles created as part of the project are able to demonstrate charging times of less than three minutes for the first 100 kilometres of range or 15 minutes for a full charge (10-80 % State of Charge (SOC))."


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> So BMW and Porsche fast charging now can charge at 3x rate of Tesla's supercharger. That is pretty good.
> 
> https://bmwi.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1564276
> https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/glob...ly-powered-vehicles-of-the-future?language=en
> ...


Yes, if you want to laugh hard, read the reactions on the Tesla forum: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/new-450kw-ev-charger-from-bmw-and-porsche.137934/

my favorite: "if tesla only revealed all the stuff that is years away "

yeah, I think they have already revealed all. Whatever is in the 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely basket...


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> So BMW and Porsche fast charging now can charge at 3x rate of Tesla's supercharger. That is pretty good.
> 
> https://bmwi.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1564276
> https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/glob...ly-powered-vehicles-of-the-future?language=en
> ...


Looking forward to this coming to market someday. BMW doesn***8217;t even have a viable long range EV. Neither does Porsche but at least the Taycan is on its way. In the meantime Tesla has 100***8217;s of Supercharger stations in the US. And they don***8217;t have production batteries that can handle this charge.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> Just sat in a 3 at the mall showroom. I like the clean interior, seats and steering wheel are good, but is it normal when closing the door for that tinny, clanging sound and vibration? That was very disappointing.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


Mine doesn't do that


----------



## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

paranoidroid said:


> I know what you mean by the 'cheap tinny' feeling because I get the same feeling with various Japanese Econo-boxes.
> 
> I never get that feeling with my Model 3 - although the doors feel lighter, by design because of they splurged on aluminum there. Let us know if you still notice the same with a test drive vehicle.
> 
> ...


On the door thing, the one I sat in sounded like a metal tray full of fine china was being shaken every time I closed the door! Hopefully not typical. Also agree with you on the Piano Black, I think it would be nicer if they used more of the wood on the dashboard.

Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

sr5959 said:


> On the door thing, the one I sat in sounded like a metal tray full of fine china was being shaken every time I closed the door! Hopefully not typical. Also agree with you on the Piano Black, I think it would be nicer if they used more of the wood on the dashboard.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest mobile app


Sit in the back and drum on the floor.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> ThisTesla doesn't even make the batteries they are using. Panasonic builds the cells inside Gigafactory.


Can Panasonic produce the same 2170 in their Japanese factories for automakers other than Tesla?


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

acoste said:


> NCA has the shortest cycle life among all battery type and it is the least safe material. This is why Tesla had to make a good cooling system.


Totally wrong. And cooling is necessary for all chemistries. Parasitic reactions occur at high rates with higher temps, some worse than others. Other manufacturers that didn't implement cooling - degradation has been so bad lawsuits have been filed. Google 'Nissan Leaf lawsuit' for one example.

Please stop spreading FUD about batteries, I've been working with lithium batteries in professional engineering work as well as high performance hobby (5C charging, 60C burst discharge) for over a decade. You know far less than you think you do about batteries and far oversimplifying the complexity of issues to support your simple and biased narrative - it's not useful to anyone to spread more FUD.



acoste said:


> Tesla doesn't even make the batteries they are using. Panasonic builds the cells inside Gigafactory.


Wrong again. It's a joint venture and only Tesla / Panasonic know the exact details of the collaboration. I have friends who worked on engineering / manufacturing on the battery line, they are Tesla employees not Panasonic.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

"Battery capacity degradation seems to be almost non existent in the i3. There are a number of people with high mileage i3s and ~3 years of ownership who have reported no visible reduction in capacity."

This is interesting since the shorter range owners should experience battery degradation before anyone else.

BMW guarantees 70% capacity for 8 years or 100,000 miles.

Tesla does not offer warranty for capacity degradation for the S and the X. It offers 125k miles / 70% for the Model 3.

Now the BMW has 22kWh battery, the nonexistent Model 3 SR will have 50kWh. 

Model 3 SR, 220mile range; 125k / 220 = 568 charge cycle

BMW i3, 81 m range; 100k / 81 = 1235 charge cycle


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> It's a joint venture and only Tesla / Panasonic know the exact details of the collaboration. I have friends who worked on engineering / manufacturing on the battery line, they are Tesla employees not Panasonic.


Since it is joint venture, there would be Panasonic employees. One reference showed by April 2016 there were 52 Panasonic employees, with 317 Tesla employees, plus contractors(Telsa's ones?). The number of Panasonic employees is probably more than that by now, unless it is no longer a joint venture.

My question is, does Panasonic own manufacturing rights to 2170? If not, does Panasonic own any of the patents/IPs of 2170, such that it can produce a 2170-variant(say, 2280?) for automakers other than Tesla?

As u stated, Tesla + Panasonic collaboration is confidential and proprietary, and no insider will disclose anything.

My guess though is that Panasonic is likely to get paid for each cell sold, plus NREs for their know-how, plus preserving ownership of IPs/patents/secret sauce(while Tesla owns the sole right to 2170), for the joint venture to make sense to Panasonic.

In a way, Panasonic is a captive supplier in a Tesla building/factory.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_1


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste;12844571
Tesla does not offer warranty for capacity degradation for the S and the X. It offers 125k miles / 70% for the Model 3.
[/QUOTE said:


> With the exception of the 60 KWH made before 2015, I believe the S and X have an 8 year unlimited mile battery warranty.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

SR22pilot said:


> With the exception of the 60 KWH made before 2015, I believe the S and X have an 8 year unlimited mile battery warranty.


For battery cell failure. But not for aging/degradation.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Model 3 SR, 220mile range; 125k / 220 = 568 charge cycle
> BMW i3, 81 m range; 100k / 81 = 1235 charge cycle


These back-of-the-envelope numbers look OK for the i3. It would be helpful if there is similar graph to post#2625 that compares the latest BMW/Nissan/Tesla/Jaguar batteries.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> These back-of-the-envelope numbers look OK for the i3. It would be helpful if there is similar graph to post#2625 that compares the latest BMW/Nissan/Tesla/Jaguar batteries.


It's difficult to get new samples from the factory. Since manufacturers have their own receipt, similar batteries are not good enough for comparison.

BMW says (this may be true or just a standard marketing answer)
"The speed at which the cell chemistry changes is enormous.. "

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/bmw-exec-explains-why-automaker-changed-its-electrification-strategy


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Back on leases, S and X can't be leased any more:

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-s-leasing-partner-isnt-doing-so-hot-report-1831145129

One interesting data point on the link below:

1. look how steep the change of the used cars prices are based on mileage (this however can be kept on a leash when leasing)
2. look how large price variance is for one data point in miles. For a 40k miles car it can go from $37k to $52k.
https://tesla-info.com/US/detail.php?ref=5b2fa18d94c3e99516543264a3b0bf6d


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Back on leases, S and X can't be leased any more:
> 
> https://jalopnik.com/tesla-s-leasing-partner-isnt-doing-so-hot-report-1831145129
> 
> ...


A lease alternative is a 2018 330e lease, BMWFS now has $5k incentive, plus $1k loyalty. Local sales are aggressive in pricing and even cash/finance may get same $6k off.

A base 330e invoice is $44485, so it is possible to get one for below $39k + tax + fee(if base inventory is available).

Now if the new G20 330e(coming summer 2019) base goes for $39k(after incentives) + tax + fee that will be a great buy.

Key Facts / Figures:

***8226; 111bhp electric motor
***8226; 181bhp two-liter inline four-cylinder gas engine(other reference says 400Nm, or 295lb-ft)
***8226; High-voltage lithium-ion battery(12kWh)
***8226; System output: 185 kW/252 hp
***8226; XtraBoost: temporarily + 30 kW/41 hp to 215 kW(252 + 41 = 293HP)
***8226; 0-100kmh: 6.0 seconds
***8226; Emissions: from 39g CO2 per km
***8226; Electric-only range: up to 60km (37 miles)
***8226; Market launch: Summer 2019

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1555557


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So this local Model S caught fire twice in a day, first time while parked at a tire shop, then again after towed to repair shop.

The fire crew apparently waited 6 hours before moving the car, but it still ignited a second time.

Is there any lithium ion battery expert on bimmerfest that can shed some lights on how this can happen?

Yesterday's local ambient temperature was quite moderate, so that should not be a factor.

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/tesla-model-s-catches-on-fire-twice-in-the-south-bay/1666229133


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

I'm not expert, but these batteries can catch on fire if

- charge voltage is too high (possible only if the charger fails)
- short circuit or overload = high current overheats the cells (I'm pretty sure there is safety protection for it) 
- puncture
- external fire of course

Based on where the flames came from initially I thought there was an electrical short under the frunk which caught on fire but who knows.


----------



## JamesWWIII (Mar 23, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Is there any lithium ion battery expert on bimmerfest that can shed some lights on how this can happen?


I'm not a LI battery expert, but fires involving lithium metal can be difficult to fully extinguish due to the metal's reactivity with oxygen in the air.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

JamesWWIII said:


> I'm not a LI battery expert, but fires involving lithium metal can be difficult to fully extinguish due to the metal's reactivity with oxygen in the air.


There has been spontaneous fires of hybrids with LI batteries too. The latest NCA and NMC from various makes appear to be variants of LI batteries, so the basic building blocks still can be susceptible to similar safety issues.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> There has been spontaneous fires of hybrids with LI batteries too. The latest NCA and NMC from various makes appear to be variants of LI batteries, so the basic building blocks still can be susceptible to similar safety issues.


There is a difference though. NMC has higher runaway temperature.

And when comparing Model 3 to Audi E-Tron, Audi built a strong battery case while Tesla built a strong chassis frame around the battery. Which means Tesla battery has a higher chance of getting punctured.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> There is a difference though. NMC has higher runaway temperature.
> 
> *And when comparing Model 3 to Audi E-Tron, Audi built a strong battery case while Tesla built a strong chassis frame around the battery. Which means Tesla battery has a higher chance of getting punctured.*


Why do you say the bolded part above? I don't know how you could make such a determination without extensive destructive testing or at least access to both companies detailed engineering specifications. :dunno:


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Why do you say the bolded part above? I don't know how you could make such a determination without extensive destructive testing or at least access to both companies detailed engineering specifications. :dunno:


"Audi e-tron pack built for crashworthiness, not heat transfer
This pack is built like a tank."

"On the other hand, Tesla uses the vehicle body structure as the primary crash resistance."

https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-battery-tms-against-tesla-model-3/

Tesla had to fix the Model S underbody: https://www.tesla.com/blog/tesla-adds-titanium-underbody-shield-and-aluminum-deflector-plates-model-s

As far as I know, the Model 3 doesn't have this kind of Titanium protection but I guess they did improve the design.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> "Audi e-tron pack built for crashworthiness, not heat transfer
> This pack is built like a tank."
> 
> "On the other hand, Tesla uses the vehicle body structure as the primary crash resistance."
> ...


In above insdieevs.com link the eTron battery pack parts diagram shows a "battery frame" part.

In the below article, that battery frame looks like a bumper rail reinforcement.

https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-battery-pack-motors-more/

In comparison the Model S battery frame looks different:
https://electrek.co/2017/01/24/tesla-teardown-100-kwh-battery-pack/


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

JamesWWIII said:


> Just thought this was a pretty funny take on the disastrous "unveiling" of Elon's beta version of his tunnel project the other day...
> 
> https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/visionary-brain-genius-elon-musk-has-invented-the-world-1831210269
> 
> The comment section alone kept me laughing louder than I probably should've been at work. Gotta love Elon's little fanclub and how butthurt some members get at the slightest criticism of their mancrush. :rofl:


This tunnel/mass transit concept may not too far off from a vision of Model 3(whose dash is meant for auto-pilot/FSD) being a people mover that merge and exit highways autonomously, and travel one foot from each [email protected]

Instead of public highways not under Tesla's auspice, these new age tunnels will be custom fit to Tesla's products, and can spur up Tesla's sales.

Obviously these tunnels will not accommodate 3-series/A4/C-class, and can allegedly starve off/kill 3-series, right?


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

For the record:

"Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."

https://www.tesla.com/about

I'd say that Elon Musk has been successful so far. Look at swell of renewable energy vehicle prototypes we've seen in the past 5 years.

I'm not sure he really cares about the 3 series.


----------



## Lennysx5 (Dec 16, 2017)

FCBayernFTW said:


> For the record:
> 
> "Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy."
> 
> ...


----------



## openwheelracing (Aug 1, 2008)

BMW owner since 2008.

Just put my deposit down on a Model 3.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

openwheelracing said:


> BMW owner since 2008.
> 
> Just put my deposit down on a Model 3.


Did they say 2-3 days of delivery with free 6-month supercharging?


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Did they say 2-3 days of delivery with free 6-month supercharging?


Tesla has released their demo and loaner cars for sale. They are also selling cars that were ordered but customers can't pick up this year. Finally, I think they have done some batch builds. Latest word is that Tesla will pay the difference in tax rebate if you order now and they can't offer a car prior to end of year.

For the 6 months free Supercharging you need to use a referral code. Shameless plug: Please help a high school teacher out.  Mine is HTTPS://ts.la/paul79511

Seriously, use someone's referral. It helps them and gets you the 6 months of free Supercharging. Some of the big YouTube guys have free Roadsters coming. I just want to get to a free wall charger.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

openwheelracing said:


> BMW owner since 2008.
> 
> Just put my deposit down on a Model 3.


Which configuration did you order? What was your experience with the Model 3 prior to ordering?

I have done about 400 miles on mine in just the past week due to a bunch of extra trips taken over the pre-holiday weekends. I'm more satisfied with the car now than I was when I bought it.

They've reduced the wind noise, which while still not to the level of my 340xi is pretty good. They've eliminated the last pesky rattle I had.

Life is good. Life is 2X good when you swing onto an on ramp and demolish all of the other traffic.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Tesla has released their demo and loaner cars for sale. They are also selling cars that were ordered but customers can't pick up this year. Finally, I think they have done some batch builds. Latest word is that Tesla will pay the difference in tax rebate if you order now and they can't offer a car prior to end of year.
> 
> For the 6 months free Supercharging you need to use a referral code. Shameless plug: Please help a high school teacher out.  Mine is HTTPS://ts.la/paul79511
> 
> Seriously, use someone's referral. It helps them and gets you the 6 months of free Supercharging. Some of the big YouTube guys have free Roadsters coming. I just want to get to a free wall charger.


Model 3 MR started to be in inventory last Sat(12/15) morning. This morning a coworker inquired about a black-black and one was located amidst [email protected] for delivery before Dec 31.

The sales did not mention paying difference in tax credits, but said customers can back out with full refund regardless car is ready for delivery by Dec 31 or beyond. And yes the sales said referral code is needed for 6 months free supercharging.

Free wall charger/free roadster is smart marketing.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Free wall charger/free roadster is smart marketing.


Yes it is. It fits their culture and builds brand loyalty. Most Teslas are sold by owners talking to friends. I do wonder why premium brands like Porsche and BMW don't do similar things.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

SR22pilot said:


> Yes it is. It fits their culture and builds brand loyalty. Most Teslas are sold by owners talking to friends. I do wonder why premium brands like Porsche and BMW don't do similar things.


They spend money on traditional advertising.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

openwheelracing said:


> BMW owner since 2008.
> 
> Just put my deposit down on a Model 3.


Congrats! This club of BMW + new Tesla owners is growing larger every week!


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> They spend money on traditional advertising.


Yes! I see huge billboards for the Audi E-tron now, and local taxis have large E-tron ads. They are really going the traditional route here.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Life is good. Life is 2X good when you swing onto an on ramp and demolish all of the other traffic.


Almost doesn't feel like a car in any traditional sense. I mentioned the analogy to another bimmer-head that on the freeway I feel like a F-15 pilot flying through a sea of WWII prop planes.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> They spend money on traditional advertising.


Please enlighten me. I have never seen a print ad for Tesla nor have I seen a commercial on TV. They produce some videos which they place on their website and on YouTube. I don't consider that regular advertising. Most Tesla "ads" that you see are ones done on speculation by others. Tesla did have a contest to see who could generate the best ad. They gave prizes to the winners. However, they never paid for airtime to show the ads.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

paranoidroid said:


> Almost doesn't feel like a car in any traditional sense. I mentioned the analogy to another bimmer-head that on the freeway I feel like a F-15 pilot flying through a sea of WWII prop planes.


The view out the front reminds me of mid engine cars; specifically the NSX I used to own. You sit very forward with little car in front of you.

I call the car my iPhone moment. It used to be that you would buy a phone and it was what it was until you got a new one. Then the iPhone came along. Physical keys got replaced by a software defined touchscreen. Some people wish the Model 3 had more buttons. I don't. I love that everything is defined by software. I get excited wondering what the next software update will bring. Maybe that isn't how a pure car guy should feel but I see it as expending what a car is rather than subtracting from it. When I get back in my Genesis it seems very old fashioned. The engine feels laggy.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

SR22pilot said:


> Please enlighten me. I have never seen a print ad for Tesla nor have I seen a commercial on TV. They produce some videos which they place on their website and on YouTube. I don't consider that regular advertising. Most Tesla "ads" that you see are ones done on speculation by others. Tesla did have a contest to see who could generate the best ad. They gave prizes to the winners. However, they never paid for airtime to show the ads.


You asked why Porsche and BMW and others don't do what Tesla is doing with referrals and word of mouth and I responded that those legacy automakers use traditional advertising like print, radio, TV.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> You asked why Porsche and BMW and others don't do what Tesla is doing with referrals and word of mouth and I responded that those legacy automakers use traditional advertising like print, radio, TV.


My apologies then I thought you were forcefully saying that Tesla used traditional advertising.


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Lennysx5 said:


> FCBayernFTW said:
> 
> 
> > For the record:
> ...


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

https://youtu.be/FSLTNjGI8hw


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Dio///M said:


> https://youtu.be/FSLTNjGI8hw


I think it's definitely true that Tesla's QC isn't as good as Audi, Bmw, or Mercedes. That said, Tesla does have a record of standing behind their cars and making them right.

One other thing I wonder about is the number of miles on Doug's car at delivery; 22 is significantly more than I would normally expect on a new car. It makes me think that perhaps his car wandered around a bit from storage lot to storage lot, or perhaps it was taken on a bunch of "checkout" drives. the paint scratches in particular look like they probably occurred after the car left the factory. As a reference point, my car had 5 miles on it when I took delivery.


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

I got the impression (from the vid) that the car could simply have a thinner than normal paint finish or clear coat that lets scratches occur too easily.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Dio///M said:


> I got the impression (from the vid) that the car could simply have a thinner than normal paint finish or clear coat that lets scratches occur too easily.


My guess is that they are not very careful in the first couple of days/weeks when handling the car. A fresh paint needs a month to be completely hardened.


----------



## insanecoder (Dec 20, 2018)

Looks like the Tesla 3 may be a 3 killer 
I could easily see buyers of a 330/320 turn to the Tesla 3


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> One other thing I wonder about is the number of miles on Doug's car at delivery; 22 is significantly more than I would normally expect on a new car. It makes me think that perhaps his car wandered around a bit from storage lot to storage lot, or perhaps it was taken on a bunch of "checkout" drives. the paint scratches in particular look like they probably occurred after the car left the factory. As a reference point, my car had 5 miles on it when I took delivery.


Couple of owners reported that they saw their cars right before delivery and it looked ok, but once it went through the dealership's final cleaning process, it got scratched all over.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

GregD said:


> I think it's definitely true that Tesla's QC isn't as good as Audi, Bmw, or Mercedes. That said, Tesla does have a record of standing behind their cars and making them right.
> 
> One other thing I wonder about is the number of miles on Doug's car at delivery; 22 is significantly more than I would normally expect on a new car. It makes me think that perhaps his car wandered around a bit from storage lot to storage lot, or perhaps it was taken on a bunch of "checkout" drives. the paint scratches in particular look like they probably occurred after the car left the factory. As a reference point, my car had 5 miles on it when I took delivery.


I think you're right and a lot of the paint issues are happening after they leave the factory. The one (out of very few) advantage of having real dealers is the dealer will detail away any transportation damage. The scuffs, scratches, etc. I don't think the Tesla delivery locations are doing a good job of this - they are also delivering at a volume many magnitudes above a typical car dealer (10x or more?).

That said, it depends on the dealer. Here's a $1.8M Porsche Spyder as delivered by the dealer that required a full paint correction:

https://www.detailedimage.com/Ask-a...orrection-clear-bra-template-creation-part-1/

My car only had 4 miles on it and didn't see much transportation handling. I'm OCD so always paint correct my cars. I did a full paint correction with my orbital buffer and got to examine every square inch of my car closely. It was good enough I only needed a single stage correction (only needed Meguiars M205 on white pad) which was also what I did to my previous cars.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

My car and my partner's were no where near this bad. I had some swirls. There was one chip that looked like a rock chip on the very bottom of the rocker panel. There were a few spots that were smoothed out later. My partner's car had some small surface scratch marks which were buffed out. There was also a scratch on the Model 3 plate where you enter the car. That was replaced. I didn't see any panel gap issues but I didn't take a micrometer to either car. I was pickier with the Tesla than any other car I have purchased. The RX7-GSL SE I owned was much worse for paint quality. The Infiniti Q45 and Accuracies NSX-T were both stellar.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Don't store anything in a Model 3 ...

Frunk won't open

Glove box keep opening

Window break in, easy access to trunk


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Don't store anything in a Model 3 ...
> 
> Frunk won't open
> 
> ...


Yes a coworker's husband had his Model 3 broken into(exactly rear small window) day 3 of ownership, company laptop, cell phone, and wallet were taken from back trunk.


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

GregD said:


> I think it's definitely true that Tesla's QC isn't as good as Audi, Bmw, or Mercedes. That said, Tesla does have a record of standing behind their cars and making them right.
> 
> One other thing I wonder about is the number of miles on Doug's car at delivery; 22 is significantly more than I would normally expect on a new car. It makes me think that perhaps his car wandered around a bit from storage lot to storage lot, or perhaps it was taken on a bunch of "checkout" drives. the paint scratches in particular look like they probably occurred after the car left the factory. As a reference point, my car had 5 miles on it when I took delivery.


Cool, my 18 X3 sunroof hasn't worked in over a month.....so do I say ALL X3 sunroofs are ?


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

acoste said:


> Don't store anything in a Model 3 ...
> 
> Frunk won't open
> 
> ...


90% of the threads on this F30 forum are also problems with their BMW.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste said:


> Don't store anything in a Model 3 ...
> 
> Frunk won't open
> 
> ...


I've never had a problem with my frunk. I've never had a problem with my glovebox. If you break into the window on my Genesis you can press a button and open the trunk. The thieves are using the fact that the rear seats fold down. I like the fact that the rear seats fold down. I don't want this "fixed."


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

paranoidroid said:


> 90% of the threads on this F30 forum are also problems with their BMW.


I think your statement is just a subset of a universal law: "90% of threads on any car specific forum are about problems with that car."


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

BTW, Merry Christmas everyone. Please remember that these are friendly discussions of first world issues. I suspect we are all very blessed. I'm just taking a break from wrapping presents.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Season's Greetings. 

Local weather is rainy and orange tint front rooftop of Model 3 looks pretty cool.

https://jalopnik.com/heres-why-the-glass-roof-on-the-tesla-model-3-sometimes-1830139290


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Happy holidays everyone!

Here's some Tesla humor

https://youtu.be/j52odgkRxDs


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Happy holidays everyone!
> 
> Here's some Tesla humor
> 
> https://youtu.be/j52odgkRxDs


Looks staged but still pretty funny


----------



## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

acoste said:


> Don't store anything in a Model 3 ...
> 
> Window break in, easy access to trunk


I wasn't aware this "was a thing" till a few days ago when at my In-Law's annual Christmas party with their college friends (and their families) group. Two of the families there have Model 3s, one lives in Piedmont, and the other in Cupertino (where the break-ins occurred), and both have had their rear windows broken and rear seats folded to get to the trunk. One family even had it happen twice! They say it's been ~$1000 to get the window fixed and takes about 2wks. They've resorted to just leaving the rear seats folded down all the time so criminals can just look in there and see that there isn't anything so the windows won't get broken.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

insanecoder said:


> Looks like the Tesla 3 may be a 3 killer
> I could easily see buyers of a 330/320 turn to the Tesla 3


From price perspective, the local dynamic price of 320i base can go for $29k, and 330i base around $34k, and currently Model 3 does not have variants at those price ranges.

Musk's tweet expects Model 3 cost to hit $28k when production reaches 100k/week. And one article said internal Tesla email at end of Nov says cost drops to $38k per Model 3, and the article speculates that cost does need to hit $28k before Tesla and sell Model [email protected]$35k.

My take is still that current Model 3 price points are early adopter stage, so improved price-value proposition will be available even when fed credits dwindle way.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status...-3-cost-could-drop-below-28000-at-10000-week/

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/11/tesla-is-2400-per-car-away-from-selling-a-35000-model-3.html


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FaRKle! said:


> I wasn't aware this "was a thing" till a few days ago when at my In-Law's annual Christmas party with their college friends (and their families) group. Two of the families there have Model 3s, one lives in Piedmont, and the other in Cupertino (where the break-ins occurred), and both have had their rear windows broken and rear seats folded to get to the trunk. One family even had it happen twice! They say it's been ~$1000 to get the window fixed and takes about 2wks. They've resorted to just leaving the rear seats folded down all the time so criminals can just look in there and see that there isn't anything so the windows won't get broken.


The small rear window break-in was first report on tesla forum in Aug 2017, but the latest Model 3 from factory still has no lock on fold-down seats. Some Tesla supporters suggested it is a problem just in "risky areas", but the Cupertino, nor Palo Alto where my coworker's husband got his Model 3 break-in, do not sound like "risky" to me.

This issue reminds me of a previous post that summarized how some Tesla owners feel about finding out new issues(the one discussed then was SOC counter on Model S).



namelessman said:


> Comments on the article of post#1456 describes how some feel about the Tesla ownership experience, e.g.
> 
> "It's a bit disconcerting that when we learn about the existence of these counters, it is always the same routine.
> 
> ...


https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/m3-rear-small-window-break-ins-design-change-from-ms.96205/


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The small rear window break-in was first report on tesla forum in Aug 2017, but the latest Model 3 from factory still has no lock on fold-down seats. Some Tesla supporters suggested it is a problem just in "risky areas", but the Cupertino, nor Palo Alto where my coworker's husband got his Model 3 break-in, do not sound like "risky" to me.
> 
> This issue reminds me of a previous post that summarized how some Tesla owners feel about finding out new issues(the one discussed then was SOC counter on Model S).
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/m3-rear-small-window-break-ins-design-change-from-ms.96205/


Do most cars with folding rear seats have locks on them? I don't recall that this was the case with my 328 and it's not the case with my GTI.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Michael Schott said:


> Do most cars with folding rear seats have locks on them? I don't recall that this was the case with my 328 and it's not the case with my GTI.


Yes, my E39 had real locks in the cabin that worked with the regular key. And the E60 opens from the trunk only.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Do most cars with folding rear seats have locks on them? I don't recall that this was the case with my 328 and it's not the case with my GTI.


F30 fold down seat option comes with locks, if there is no fold down(as in early F30 328i/320i) naturally there will be no lock.

3-series/C-class/A4 fold down seats do come with locks.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Yes, my E39 had real locks in the cabin that worked with the regular key. And the E60 opens from the trunk only.


Yes same for my E39.

The German premium brands are the same with fold down + locks, the Japanese premium brands should be the same too.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> F30 fold down seat option comes with locks, if there is no fold down(as in early F30 328i/320i) naturally there will be no lock.
> 
> 3-series/C-class/A4 fold down seats do come with locks.


The 3 series does not have "locks" it provides security by only allowing fold-down release from inside the trunk. VW/Audi have traditionally included locks on the rear seat fold down latches but I'm not sure what they are doing currently.

The Tesla Model 3 needs an update that will provide some better security, but it's certainly not the only car being targeted. In 2017, when hardly any Model 3s had been delivered, 30,000 vehicle breakins were reported in the SF Bay Area.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Breaking-Point-475109113.html

This is a policing/enforcement/prosecution/lax-drug-policy problem in Northern California and is not a problem with only Teslas.

Car Break-Ins Reported to San Francisco Police

2014: 22,029
2015: 26,040
2016: 24,624
2017: 28,984


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> From price perspective, the local dynamic price of 320i base can go for $29k, and 330i base around $34k, and currently Model 3 does not have variants at those price ranges.
> 
> Musk's tweet expects Model 3 cost to hit $28k when production reaches 100k/week. And one article said internal Tesla email at end of Nov says cost drops to $38k per Model 3, and the article speculates that cost does need to hit $28k before Tesla and sell Model [email protected]$35k.
> 
> ...


Yeah well, good luck with waiting and hoping that if/when a $35,000 car is available to you to order via your deposit that you wouldn't have been better off just getting the $45,000 medium range car and getting all the tax perks.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Back on topic, drag race between $84,000 BMW M3 Competition and $75,000 Tesla Performance Model-3 (price of the Tesla is now $65,000 without autopilot and even less with tax credits).

The M3 guy is kind of sheepish when he acknowledges his car is quite a bit more expensive than the PM3 and got decimated. He also indicates he's a 'regular' drag-racer, used launch control, etc. By comparison the guy in the Tesla had not been drag racing in 10 years and all he had to do was point and shoot.

Now on the right track the M3 would probably beat the Tesla. Also if they kept going past 120mph the BMW would have eventually caught the Tesla.... but the reality is 99% of us will never drive at those speeds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7EFiqEyv_c


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The 3 series does not have "locks" it provides security by only allowing fold-down release from inside the trunk. VW/Audi have traditionally included locks on the rear seat fold down latches but I'm not sure what they are doing currently.


Yes Audi/MB/BMW/Germans track closely, they used to all have key locks accessible from inside cabin, and then they one by one change to latch release from inside trunk, allegedly to allow those trapped in trunk(e.g. small children) to escape.

As a side note, the F30 fold down mechanism can still opened from cabin, as demonstrated by an inquisitive mind at work figuring out how to escape from cabin through fold down. This means F30 trunk is also not 100% theft proof.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Yeah well, good luck with waiting and hoping that if/when a $35,000 car is available to you to order via your deposit that you wouldn't have been better off just getting the $45,000 medium range car and getting all the tax perks.


Well my time horizon is long, as my F30 still has 9 years of emission warranty from BMWNA. That should be enough time to ride out the early adopter stage.

So hopefully within the next few years the $28k + tax + fee (even with $0 state/fed credit) of Model 3(or the next big thing that replaces Model 3) will be available, and/or the Germans/Chinese/domestic competitors will offer compelling alternatives, e.g. a hydrogen hybrid with 100-mile electric range.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Yes Audi/MB/BMW/Germans track closely, they used to all have key locks accessible from inside cabin, and then they one by one change to latch release from inside trunk, allegedly to allow those trapped in trunk(e.g. small children) to escape.
> 
> As a side note, the F30 fold down mechanism can still opened from cabin, as demonstrated by an inquisitive mind at work figuring out how to escape from cabin through fold down. This means F30 trunk is also not 100% theft proof.


BMWs have motion detectors. Model 3 can be broken into without the alarm going off.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> BMWs have motion detectors. Model 3 can be broken into without the alarm going off.


The alarm system on the BMW is not standard unless you buy 340i.

Tesla could probably deliver a feature that uses the interior camera to set the alarm off if the car is parked/armed and no key has been used to unlock it.

Tesla could also pull their heads out and just move the seat latches or provide a locking system through the vehicles touch screen but that would require a hardware retrofit and eat into their profit margins.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Well my time horizon is long, as my F30 still has 9 years of emission warranty from BMWNA. That should be enough time to ride out the early adopter stage.
> 
> So hopefully within the next few years the $28k + tax + fee (even with $0 state/fed credit) of Model 3(or the next big thing that replaces Model 3) will be available, and/or the Germans/Chinese/domestic competitors will offer compelling alternatives, e.g. a hydrogen hybrid with 100-mile electric range.


You won't be getting a Tesla Model 3 for $28,000.... hell, you won't be getting the new long range Nissan Leaf for $28,000.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Check out the Tesla store at 3:55+

EDIT Sorry someone took the vid down 

Merry Christmas!!


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## x986 (Oct 27, 2006)

namelessman said:


> So hopefully within the next few years the $28k + tax + fee (even with $0 state/fed credit) of Model 3(or the next big thing that replaces Model 3) will be available


I think you miss-read. To paraphrase what was said, it was something like "When we get the cost down to $28K, we can sell the car for $35K."

FWIW: My wife has had her Model 3 since May, it has 6K+ miles on it, and she got it with zero defects. But the important thing for most people here on this thread, is that I prefer driving it to my 340i. I'm back on BMW forums because my 340i is coming off lease, and we want one ICE car so we don't have to preplan trips of 250 miles.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

x986 said:


> I think you miss-read. To paraphrase what was said, it was something like "When we get the cost down to $28K, we can sell the car for $35K."
> 
> FWIW: My wife has had her Model 3 since May, it has 6K+ miles on it, and she got it with zero defects. But the important thing for most people here on this thread, is that I prefer driving it to my 340i. I'm back on BMW forums because my 340i is coming off lease, and we want one ICE car so we don't have to preplan trips of 250 miles.


The supercharger network isn't working for you for longer trips or you just feel that it's a poor idea to count on high speed electric charging vs. gas stations?

I can somewhat sympathize. We have an older SUV and I think I'd have a hard time replacing it with an EV since it's hard to beat the convenience of fueling anywhere with no pre-planning.

BMW lease deals are pretty good right now so you should be able to find a good deal on another 340i. For me personally the M2 competition would be on my short list but I still think the Tesla probably drives better in most situations I would drive both in.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

voip-ninja said:


> *The 3 series does not have "locks" it provides security by only allowing fold-down release from inside the trunk.* VW/Audi have traditionally included locks on the rear seat fold down latches but I'm not sure what they are doing currently.
> 
> The Tesla Model 3 needs an update that will provide some better security, but it's certainly not the only car being targeted. In 2017, when hardly any Model 3s had been delivered, 30,000 vehicle breakins were reported in the SF Bay Area.
> 
> ...


This is what I recall. There were levers in the trunk to release the seatbacks. VW's (I don't know about Audi) on hatchbacks have the levers on the seatbacks. Accessible from the interior. On my car a criminal could easily access the covered hatch area. I don't keep anything of value there.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Some news on the battery. Both Panasonic and Tesla announced new battery factories in China. Seems like Panasonic will have its own and on top of that they might share some of the Gigafactory 3.
But the cell supplier is not written in stone yet.

"The relationship has been very beneficial to Panasonic also.
Between all its product lines, Tesla is now the biggest buyer of li-ion batteries in the world and that gives the company some power with battery manufacturers.
Most of that volume is going to Panasonic, but Tesla has been spreading it out a little over the last few years with orders going to LG Chem and Samsung SDI for a few projects."

https://electrek.co/2018/05/10/tesla-panasonic-partner-again-gigafactory-china/

"Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that they would get battery cells from local suppliers for the Gigafactory 3."

https://electrek.co/2018/12/26/panasonic-double-electric-vehicle-battery-production-china/


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> The alarm system on the BMW is not standard unless you buy 340i.


The alarm (option 302) has been standard on all 3-series since 2016. Prior to that it was an option for the 320/328 and standard on the 335. I didn't remember paying for this separately with my '17 and rechecked the pricing guides to see.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> The alarm system on the BMW is not standard unless you buy 340i.
> 
> Tesla could probably deliver a feature that uses the interior camera to set the alarm off if the car is parked/armed and no key has been used to unlock it.
> 
> Tesla could also pull their heads out and just move the seat latches or provide a locking system through the vehicles touch screen but that would require a hardware retrofit and eat into their profit margins.


Tesla introduced a motion-sensing anti-theft alarm for the Model S last month. Retrofit for $350 installed. I hope they introduce this for the Model 3 as well.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Tesla introduced a motion-sensing anti-theft alarm for the Model S last month. Retrofit for $350 installed. I hope they introduce this for the Model 3 as well.


MSRP for F30 alarm was around $400 when it was still standalone option.

The F30 alarm has motion [email protected] function and tilt + siren in one unit.

BMWAG cost cutting on F chassis means if not equipped from factory, the alarm wiring harness will not be pre-installed, hence DIY is not as simple plug-and-play as E-chassis.

https://f30.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1230289


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> This is what I recall. There were levers in the trunk to release the seatbacks. VW's (I don't know about Audi) on hatchbacks have the levers on the seatbacks. Accessible from the interior. On my car a criminal could easily access the covered hatch area. I don't keep anything of value there.


CA code does require this on exit door: "Separate dead* lock* activation on room side of the corridor doors in hotels and motels(and residence on some local ordinances) shall have *handle* or l*arge thumb turn* in an easily reached location."

From this definition, the current gen of truck lever release of fold-down seat is quite similar to a door lock.

My take is that even F30 locked fold-down can be defeated, Model 3's current fold down (being known as lock-less) presents an easy and quick target compared to F30 fold down.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> I***8217;m looking forward to this one. I***8217;ll be back in the US by then and am going to likely lease on my next go around.
> 
> Oh and I***8217;m a bit surprised you and GregD are E.V. owners. :halo:


If you can't beat them . . . 

At least I'm getting back some of my taxes that are going to pay for all the idiotic green initiatives and subsidies out there.

At the same price, I'd buy a Model 3 versus the competition. Throw in the 20% discount due to the government incentives and it's a pretty easy choice. Now, if the government weren't so radically distorting the market with all of its initiatives, ICE cars would probably cost 25% or more less than they do today, and EV cars without subsidies simply wouldn't be competitive.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> I loath going to the gas station....part of why I traded the M4 in for the X3. Never having to go to the gas station is a VERY appealing proposition


I must admit that I do enjoy the convenience of just plugging in at home rather than going to the gas station. This is something I hadn't even thought of before buying my Model 3.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

GregD said:


> I must admit that I do enjoy the convenience of just plugging in at home rather than going to the gas station. This is something I hadn't even thought of before buying my Model 3.


The convenience of it all. What do you use for long range road trips? I'm thinking a Model-Y would be fine for work commutes and Denver runs



voip-ninja said:


> X3 still gets atrocious gas mileage. Not sure how you can live with yourself.


It's an improvement. I only need to go to the gas station on the weekends which is a huge improvement. I'm also not expending as much gas because I'm not driving like a doofus.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> The convenience of it all. What do you use for long range road trips? I'm thinking a Model-Y would be fine for work commutes and Denver runs


 We did a day trip a few days ago, about 350 miles in distance around central Colorado. We took the Model 3 and charged it up at a Supercharger at the Stanley Hotel for about 20 minutes, and arrived home with about 120 miles of range to spare. For probably 98% of our driving, the Model 3 is actually more convenient than a gas powered car.

We'll have to see about long range road trips, which I tend to think of as over 1,000 miles and a number of days. I think it will depend on how many Superchargers are available in the places we're going, whether or not there will be any offroading involved, and how much stuff we want to haul along. For a quick run to Los Angeles to visit friends and relatives, the Tesla would be a strong contender due to the fuel cost savings and general comfort; the only negative would be an extra hour or two of travel time due to the Supercharger stops. If we're going to be doing much sightseeing or exploring along the way, the Wrangler Unlimited is a more likely choice since getting pretty far away from Superchargers is likely and we can haul more stuff. The Model Y would take care of the hauling more stuff, but it's probably going to be a few more years before the Supercharger network is really built out into the more obscure areas.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

GregD said:


> We did a day trip a few days ago, about 350 miles in distance around central Colorado. We took the Model 3 and charged it up at a Supercharger at the Stanley Hotel for about 20 minutes, and arrived home with about 120 miles of range to spare.
> 
> We'll have to see about long range road trips, which I tend to think of as over 1,000 miles and a number of days. I think it will depend on how many Superchargers are available in the places we're going, whether or not there will be any offroading involved, and how much stuff we want to haul along. For a quick run to Los Angeles to visit friends and relatives, the Tesla would be a strong contender due to the fuel cost savings and general comfort; the only negative would be an extra hour or two of travel time due to the Supercharger stops. If we're going to be doing much sightseeing or exploring along the way, the Wrangler Unlimited is a more likely choice since getting pretty far away from Superchargers is likely.


I get battery charge anxiety with my phone....I imagine I would be worse with a E.V. on long road trips.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FCBayernFTW said:


> I get battery charge anxiety with my phone....I imagine I would be worse with a E.V. on long road trips.


Not really. There are a metric crap ton of Superchargers and the car now shows other charging options (destination chargers and such) nearby anytime you want to see them.

I can see maybe a bit of anxiety if road tripping in the wintertime since there is about a 30% range penalty in cold temps.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> Not really. There are a metric crap ton of Superchargers and the car now shows other charging options (destination chargers and such) nearby anytime you want to see them.
> 
> I can see maybe a bit of anxiety if road tripping in the wintertime since there is about a 30% range penalty in cold temps.


 Based on my trip a few days ago, I'd say the cold temp penalty is more like 15% to 20% on a longer run. The 20% was with headlights at night, frequent use of the windshield wipers, and occasional usage of the defrosters, with temperatures mostly in the 20s. On a shorter trip where everything has to be warmed up, a 30% degradation can definitely occur.

I haven't felt any range anxiety to date.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

FCBayernFTW said:


> I get battery charge anxiety with my phone....I imagine I would be worse with a E.V. on long road trips.


The car gives you a lot of info on projected range, energy usage and supercharger locations (with real-time stall use info).

I've done a few road trips and the Model 3 surprisingly is my favorite road trip car out of the three cars I own. The entire driving experience, lack of vibration, buttery smoothness, autopilot make up for the extra time spent at a supercharger. Spending time at a supercharger is also relaxing with food and drink options nearby and lets me catch up on email or general stuff on my phone.

The minimalist interior makes me feel like I'm hanging out at a VIP airport lounge while supercharging. No noise anywhere and music playing and catching up on my phone. Going to a gas station, even if it takes 10-15minutes isn't nearly as nice of an experience.

This is all stuff many Tesla owners have harped on for a few years but I've found it to be true. I also do some camping in remote areas and that's where I would take one of the other cars so it's not going to fulfill every need (yet).


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> 90% of the threads on this F30 forum are also problems with their BMW.


There are some lessons however that I can learn from reading the forums.

For example there is a percentage of parts failure threshold set by car manufacturers towards parts suppliers. Just by looking at the front trunk won't open thread, I can see that the # of failures posted in that single thread divided by all Model 3s sold is over the usual threshold and the cars are just 6 months old on average.

Here is a new Model X: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/one-week-in-airbag-indicator-and-more.139144/
And a new Model 3: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/new-model-3-cannot-maintain-power-messge.139169/

**** happens sometimes to BMW too, but when they found an issue with one part, they didn't release any cars, but put them in storage until the updated parts arrived.


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

May I respectfully request the mods move this thread to the "everything else" forum? I come to the F30 forum looking to read about F30's. I do not come here to read about Political Science, DNA testing, the NFL, or Teslas. I understand that click counts bring you revenue, but what started out as a quasi-helpful comparison of Model 3 to the last generation BMW 3 has spiraled out of control. I'm thrilled that Greg D and Voip-Ninja have cars they love, but the minutia of Tesla driveline combinations, frunk problems, etc. just doesn't belong here. My next door neighbor loves her Buick crossover, but that doesn't mean I want to read about it here on BIMMERfest. She can talk to me about it in the driveway (she is not hard to look at), but I wouldn't find her comments appropriate on an erstwhile BMW-enthusiast board.

Thank you.


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## Elk (Apr 28, 2012)

If you say it three times it will be true. 

All you need do is avoid the thread. Easy.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

quackbury said:


> May I respectfully request the mods move this thread to the "everything else" forum? I come to the F30 forum looking to read about F30's. I do not come here to read about Political Science, DNA testing, the NFL, or Teslas. I understand that click counts bring you revenue, but what started out as a quasi-helpful comparison of Model 3 to the last generation BMW 3 has spiraled out of control. I'm thrilled that Greg D and Voip-Ninja have cars they love, but the minutia of Tesla driveline combinations, frunk problems, etc. just doesn't belong here. My next door neighbor loves her Buick crossover, but that doesn't mean I want to read about it here on BIMMERfest. She can talk to me about it in the driveway (she is not hard to look at), but I wouldn't find her comments appropriate on an erstwhile BMW-enthusiast board.
> 
> Thank you.


Quick answer: No. it's a 3 series competitor. You have the option of not clicking on this thread if it's not pertinent to you.


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Good


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## jabloomf1230 (May 19, 2014)

I found this thread very helpful while shopping for a new car. Our initial choices were a Porsche Macan, a Tesla S and a Tesla 3. After checking into some of the inconvenience factors associated with the Tesla like lack of charge stations and the mobile service, we procrastinated until our X1 lease almost ran out. In the end, we bought a 2019 BMW 530e and we couldn't be happier.

Maybe the solution to this quandary is to set up a new subforum for comparative car shopping, so that individual model subforums don't get clogged with extraneous information.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> There are some lessons however that I can learn from reading the forums.
> 
> For example there is a percentage of parts failure threshold set by car manufacturers towards parts suppliers. Just by looking at the front trunk won't open thread, I can see that the # of failures posted in that single thread divided by all Model 3s sold is over the usual threshold and the cars are just 6 months old on average.
> 
> ...


You claim to be an engineer yet you offer up completely biased information and present it as fact.

Pro tip, engineers don't do that.

A few threads and a handful of reports of something like a stuck frunk don't prove it happens statistically more than it does on other cars. Tesla have sold nearly 200,000 Model 3s and this problem appears to have only impacted a tiny number of users.

I'd also like to see the backing for your claim that BMW warehouses entire production runs if they find a faulty part until the new part is available. They might do that in the case of safety recalls but I know for a fact that they don't do it for all cars they build. My last F30 was built with inferior door seals and was delivered like that even though the new revised seals were available at the time the car was delivered to me.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

So far they have built 154k Model 3s.

In the thread mentioned there were like 8 reported failures of frunk latch and I didn't click on the other frunk threads. 
8/154k ~= 1/19k

Now the Model 3 has 10 000 parts. If the failure rate were as bad as the above, every second car would have one broken part. 
This is why the failure rate requirements are a lot more strict than the above. (ICE cars have a like 30k parts)


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

1/19,000 is 0.005%. There are two latches for safety/redundancy and only need one to fail so actual component failure rate just from forum stats is 0.00025%. It's surely higher than that in real life as only a few will get reported on the forum. I'm not sure what is acceptable, maybe you can give us some detailed facts of example parts that are comparable and the contracted failure rate from suppliers? You generally just make these cut and dry and shallow opinions without any deeper thinking or backing behind it and that doesn't help illustrate your point.

In any case, I fully expect the Model 3 to have teething issues given both first model year of a new car, a new car company, and cutting edge EV tech. It was a consideration I balanced when deciding if I was going to buy it and I decided all the benefits of this car greatly outweighed potential teething issues.

The good thing about the Model 3 is it's not some low volume exotic car. There's enough volume that even low statistic issues will happen with hopefully accompanied service-bulletin and resolution.

In essence, I trust Tesla will take care of any issues that pop up during warranty. Given the general 'solid-state' nature of these cars I expect most faulty component issues will fail within the warranty period. We'll see if that turns out to be the case.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

The 19***8221; wheels help handling but the 18***8221; with Aero covers have noticeably greater range. 

If charge starts to be an issue, the car will point it out and offer to navigate to a Supercharger or other charging location you have used. For example it will remember your home charger so if you are headed home and have enough charge, it won***8217;t recommend a diversion.

If you want to optimize time spent charging and see how much that is, try routing at home at abetterrouteplanner.com


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## sr5959 (Feb 10, 2012)

Tesla cut price on all it's cars by $2k, so the 2019 Federal Tax Credit reduction is now effectively a hit of about $1,800. Not too bad...


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

sr5959 said:


> Tesla cut price on all it's cars by $2k, so the 2019 Federal Tax Credit reduction is now effectively a hit of about $1,800. Not too bad...


Looks like that massive pent up demand for model 3 is about sated.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> Looks like that massive pent up demand for model 3 is about sated.


Yes, I think we're going to see a substantial drop in Model 3 sales in the US until the base model comes out.


----------



## Eagle11 (Oct 6, 2013)

acoste said:


> So far they have built 154k Model 3s.
> 
> In the thread mentioned there were like 8 reported failures of frunk latch and I didn't click on the other frunk threads.
> 8/154k ~= 1/19k
> ...


Then you have BMW and the N63 engine troubles, I'd take the trunk latch issue on the model 3 over the hassles of the N63 engine.


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

paranoidroid said:


> Tesla introduced a motion-sensing anti-theft alarm for the Model S last month. Retrofit for $350 installed. I hope they introduce this for the Model 3 as well.


Apparently this still hasn't been implemented, or the implementation is poor.

Last night my aunt's two-week old Model S had the c-pillar small window broken to fold the seat and see the trunk contents while she was at dinner in Santa Clara. No alarm went off.

One of her friends posted that the same thing happened to her three times this past year, and if that's not a record, I found out that my family friend's Tesla had FOUR window smash/break-ins this year! I had no idea that targeting Teslas and smashing their windows has reached such epidemic levels in Silicon Valley (in addition to the friend with three break-ins this year, there were five other instances people mentioned happening to them/family/friends this year in my aunt's discussion).

I wonder if the new dashcam function Tesla deployed has parking monitoring capabilities.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

I have to agree that the discussion in this thread has evolved away from its original intent. There is no longer much mention of the F30. Moved to General Automotive Forum.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Well it should be compared to the G series anyways


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Well it should be compared to the G series anyways


How can you compare it to a car that none of us have driven?


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Michael Schott said:


> How can you compare it to a car that none of us have driven?


 good point


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

FaRKle! said:


> Apparently this still hasn't been implemented, or the implementation is poor.
> 
> Last night my aunt's two-week old Model S had the c-pillar small window broken to fold the seat and see the trunk contents while she was at dinner in Santa Clara. No alarm went off.
> 
> ...


It's an option on the S and X. You can have it retrofitted but it doesn't come standard. It isn't available on the 3.


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## Matthew_H (Oct 9, 2017)

Not where I live. Electric cars never clicked here because of the extreme winter that’ll kill the battery just like that. Not do we have charging stations. That only place that has one is IKEA. We don’t even have a Tesla dealer, but there’s this local luxury car dealer that is capable of ordering and servicing them. 


Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

SR22pilot said:


> It's an option on the S and X. You can have it retrofitted but it doesn't come standard. It isn't available on the 3.


Where do you option this? I went to the configuration tool on Tesla's site and didn't see any option for a motion sensor/glass break alarm.

The only options were:
-Powertrain level (75, 100, P100)
-Colors
-Wheels
-Interior color
-Enhanced autopilot
-Powerwall quote


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Matthew_H said:


> Not where I live. Electric cars never clicked here because of the extreme winter that'll kill the battery just like that. Not do we have charging stations. That only place that has one is IKEA. We don't even have a Tesla dealer, but there's this local luxury car dealer that is capable of ordering and servicing them.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Bimmerfest


I don't think that your extreme winter would kill a Tesla battery, unless you ran the charge down to 0, and left it sitting out for a couple of days in temperatures below -30 degrees Celsius. I would call that intentionally abusing the car, and I don't think most car owners would ever do that. Low temperatures definitely hurt range in an EV however, and from what I've read, the lower the temperature, the greater the hit on the range.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

FaRKle! said:


> Where do you option this? I went to the configuration tool on Tesla's site and didn't see any option for a motion sensor/glass break alarm.
> 
> The only options were:
> -Powertrain level (75, 100, P100)
> ...


You can find it here https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/vehicle-accessories/model-s-enhanced-anti-theft.html


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

SR22pilot said:


> You can find it here https://shop.tesla.com/us/en/product/vehicle-accessories/model-s-enhanced-anti-theft.html


Thanks. I'll send that link to my aunt. That's totally bizarre that they put it in the accessories section and not in the build section. Doesn't make sense that it has to be an after-build retrofit rather than during-build option.


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## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

Michael Schott said:


> I have to agree that the discussion in this thread has evolved away from its original intent. There is no longer much mention of the F30. Moved to General Automotive Forum.


Thank you Michael Schott! :thumbup: Please do the same with other Tesla threads that are cluttering the F30 forum.


----------



## st_o_p (Sep 30, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> Looks like that massive pent up demand for model 3 is about sated.





GregD said:


> Yes, I think we're going to see a substantial drop in Model 3 sales in the US until the base model comes out.


I don't know about that. Maybe - I have no insight in Tesla's sales data.

But for example - I am in the market for one. I will however wait until they start shipping them with v.3 self-driving hardware as opposed to the current v.2.5. So if that happens in Apr on in July - I definitely won't buy until then. I imagine I'm not the only one. :dunno:

(BTW I did not read this whole thread. 113 pages - most of it junk -there's just no way. I did go through the other 15-page thread - and it was very informative - thank you for those impressions :thumbup.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

st_o_p said:


> I don't know about that. Maybe - I have no insight in Tesla's sales data.
> 
> But for example - I am in the market for one. I will however wait until they start shipping them with v.3 self-driving hardware as opposed to the current v.2.5. So if that happens in Apr on in July - I definitely won't buy until then. I imagine I'm not the only one. :dunno:
> 
> (BTW I did not read this whole thread. 113 pages - most of it junk -there's just no way. I did go through the other 15-page thread - and it was very informative - thank you for those impressions :thumbup.


Since you are buying it for the autopilot, are you aware that Teslas (other than AP1 cars running on old software) can't read speed limit signs? The patent is owned by MobilEye who doesn't let them use it. Tesla uses map based speed limits. If I cared about self-driving I would wait for the BMWs coming out soon with the EyeQ5 chips from MobilEye. Those have a higher chance to become Level 3 cars.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Since you are buying it for the autopilot, are you aware that Teslas (other than AP1 cars running on old software) can't read speed limit signs? The patent is owned by MobilEye who doesn't let them use it. Tesla uses map based speed limits. If I cared about self-driving I would wait for the BMWs coming out soon with the EyeQ5 chips from MobilEye. Those have a higher chance to become Level 3 cars.


From this read of the subject it seems pretty thin.

This is an essential patent for self driving technology and there are numerous ways it can be implemented. Such broad software patents rarely survive judicial scrutiny in the US. At most Tesla would have to pay a fair use fee IMO.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/9t2sm6/possible_reason_why_tesla_vehicles_cant_read/#ampf=undefined


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> From this read of the subject it seems pretty thin.
> 
> This is an essential patent for self driving technology and there are numerous ways it can be implemented. Such broad software patents rarely survive judicial scrutiny in the US. At most Tesla would have to pay a fair use fee IMO.
> 
> https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.re..._why_tesla_vehicles_cant_read/#ampf=undefined


Why haven't they implemented it then yet?

However this is not my main concern about their solution. 
What I dislike is the lack of reliable redundancy in perception. And the second thing is which I'm assuming but isn't confirmed yet that their path planning uses mostly NN. Waymo guys describe the difficulty with it in this article: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/12/12/waymo_presents_chauffernet/


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

I ran Buttonwillow in the Tesla and it was a complete blast. It was my first time there but the charging was not too bad with 14-50 RV outlets all over on site, and two supercharger lots within 10-15m drive if needed. While the stock suspension is much softer than the one on my 135i (which is far from stock with all M3 bits - control arms, etc, stiffer spring & coils, etc), it is a better balanced car than the 135i. Very easy to control at the limits. It was amazing to feel how much Track Mode changed the dynamics of the car after running the first session without it.

I'm going to run two full days at Buttonwillow in the 135i soon too so it'll be interesting to see how I feel about it.

Running a full day at the track then autopiloting the long drive back home is insanely nice.


----------



## st_o_p (Sep 30, 2003)

acoste said:


> Since you are buying it for the autopilot, are you aware that Teslas (other than AP1 cars running on old software) can't read speed limit signs? The patent is owned by MobilEye who doesn't let them use it. Tesla uses map based speed limits. If I cared about self-driving I would wait for the BMWs coming out soon with the EyeQ5 chips from MobilEye. Those have a higher chance to become Level 3 cars.


I am not buying Tesla for its self-driving capabilities. That is just the cherry on the cake. However - I do tend to keep my cars for many years - and Tesla has over-the-air software updates which will keep the software current for years (huge competitive advantage over any other manufacturer). However - that makes the self-driving hardware it ships with very important - and worth the wait for next (major) version.

As for BMW self-driving capabilities - all I can do is :rofl: . I drive one now and comparing it to Tesla self-driving - not even close.

The reason I am buying a Tesla - just like all other buyers is that it is a capable electric vehicle, and that is a much better technology than ICE. BMW has no competing offering (i3 is a joke). I like BMWs, have owned several. But right now it feels kind of like Nokia flip-phone when the iPhone came out. Hopefully they'll get their act together and in 7-8 years they'll have a competing vehicle that we can look at and decide it's worth buying over a Tesla. Right now - for me personally - I don't see one on the market.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Discounts are marketing tricks using marked up prices. Let's not feel sorry for BMW.
> 
> BMW's net income for the last several years:


Yes, and BMW has also been in business for over 75 years, has numerous factories in dozens of countries and sells probably 100 different vehicle configurations in various markets.

The real threat from BMW i4 might not be that it can actually compete with what Tesla is doing on the technology front, but that BMW can lose money on it in order to get a toe hold in the EV market since the i3 was a flop.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

quackbury said:


> At least the guys who owned DeLoreans could still fill them up at their local corner Mobil or Shell, and any grease monkey could service them. What happens when Tesla goes bankrupt and the Superchargers stop charging? And the only service providers go out of business? Who is the bigger loser? Voip and paranoiddroid? Or the chiropractor who had invested 10% of his target benefit plan in TSLA?


Not a worry here at all. Let's list the non Tesla specific plugs I can charge from:

5-15, 5-20, 6-15, 6-20, 10-30, 14-30, 6-50, 14-50 (RV), SAE J1772, etc.

Also there will most likely be an adapter to go from either CCS or Chademo (non Tesla fast DC charging standards).

Any of these can be found in much more frequency than any gas stations.

If Tesla goes bankrupt (as some here are 100% sure of at the keyboard, but most likely too chicken to actually place a large short in the market) then it's possible we lose access to superchargers. But much more likely a company buys the network, it's much too valuable.

Parts availability and service, there will be more than enough Model 3s out there if the worst case scenario happens that there will be a third party parts and service industry available. Besides, look at the tear apart videos of the Model 3. Much easier to service than ICE. Way less parts. Just lego blocks that plug into each other.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

gkr778 said:


> Whaddya know, the pyramid scheme named Tesla sent an e-mail to its employees yesterday informing them that they will be able to lease a Model 3. :rofl:
> 
> Tesla plans Model 3 leases to boost demand, report says


Let me know of other pyramid schemes where the stock has grown over 15x over seven years, the products have outsold similar competitors, the customer satisfaction rating surveyed over 500k car owners from all manufacturers have toppled the previous champion (Porsche) and they are on the bleeding edge of a transformation in transportation technology that has put all other established companies on the defensive.

Because I want in.


----------



## st_o_p (Sep 30, 2003)

quackbury said:


> I bet the average (mean) TSLA holder has $5,000 or less tied up in the stock. While the average Tesla owner has $50,000 plus tied up in his car. If Tesla goes Tango Uniform like DeLorean Motor Cars, who takes the bigger hit? This is NOT a tough question!
> 
> ...


I will bet you that if Tesla goes under right now - there will be a rush to buy any existing unsold cars before they disappear. Sure - having a car without sure access to spare parts, etc. will be an issue. But electric cars require very little maintenance, and considering you may not get such product again will get more people to buy than there will be leftover cars available.

As for the superchargers - they are very little consideration for me personally. I fully expect to do 95-98% charging at home. Our household will still have ICE car for long trips. The beauty of electric is that you can drive it locally and never have to charge outside of your house.


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

voip-ninja said:


> Wow, if Tesla is so sure to fail then you should mortgage your house and short the crap out of Tesla stock, hurry!


Buying puts is the preferred way to go. Much better leverage. TSLA is so heavily shorted, the returns aren't there.


voip-ninja said:


> Tesla has levers to pull to stimulate demand and leasing is one of them. It is going to affect their quarterly performance though which is why it makes sense they will push it out as long as possible.


Sure. If you say so. When the whole house of cards collapses, who cares how imaginary the residuals were? Pump and dump, baby!


voip-ninja said:


> What would BMW demand be if they stopped offering heavily subsidized leases?


Dude, where ya been? BMWFS got out of the subvented lease business more than a year ago. As far as I can tell, it hasn't impacted demand all that much. Unfortunately, for those of us who miss the "good old days".


voip-ninja said:


> The only people that are positive that Tesla is going to fail are the ones that can't read a balance sheet and have never driven a Tesla automobile.


Got it. The true believers***8217; back-up style is to be condescending. As in "you're not smart enough to appreciate my car." Unless you are an IB, I'd be willing to bet I have a LOT more experience analyzing balance sheets than you do. Though o be fair, I am not 'positive Tesla is going to fail." I'm just positive I'm not going to risk $75,000 of my hard-earned capital on such a risky proposition. Now if Tesla Financial Services offers leases to consumers, thereby taking the end-user risk out of the equation, I'd be tempted to dip my toes into the cesspool.


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

paranoidroid said:


> Let me know of other pyramid schemes where the stock has grown over 15x over seven years, the products have outsold similar competitors, the customer satisfaction rating surveyed over 500k car owners from all manufacturers have toppled the previous champion (Porsche) and they are on the bleeding edge of a transformation in transportation technology that has put all other established companies on the defensive.
> 
> Because I want in.


Sounds like you missed out on Bitcoin. Count your blessings.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

quackbury said:


> Buying puts is the preferred way to go. Much better leverage. TSLA is so heavily shorted, the returns aren't there.
> 
> Sure. If you say so. When the whole house of cards collapses, who cares how imaginary the residuals were? Pump and dump, baby!
> 
> ...


My $62,000 Tesla was $50,000 after tax incentives not $75,000.


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## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

voip-ninja said:


> My $62,000 Tesla was $50,000 after tax incentives not $75,000.


In true Tesla pyramid scheme style, you're so proud to have taxpayers subsidize your new car. Woohoo!


----------



## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

quackbury said:


> Sounds like you missed out on Bitcoin. Count your blessings.


He apparently also missed out on Twentieth Century Motor Car Corporation and its Dale, "the best car ever built!" back in the 1970s:










Tesla and Model 3 represent the 21st century analogue. The opportunity is still there! :thumbup:


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

quackbury said:


> Buying puts is the preferred way to go. Much better leverage. TSLA is so heavily shorted, the returns aren't there.


Not sure how this makes sense. The returns are absolutely there if TSLA goes bankrupt all the way (not saying you think this, but a few here do). $300 (today's price) to $0 is quite a lot of return.



quackbury said:


> Though o be fair, I am not 'positive Tesla is going to fail."


Exactly. There is no certainty either way. But you got jokers here who keyboard commando bankruptcy with absolutely certainty but wouldn't ever admit they wouldn't put their house on the short.



quackbury said:


> Now if Tesla Financial Services offers leases to consumers, thereby taking the end-user risk out of the equation, I'd be tempted to dip my toes into the cesspool.


Do it. You might just find out, as I have that the bimmers just don't get driven anymore.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

gkr778 said:


> He apparently also missed out on Twentieth Century Motor Car Corporation and its Dale, "the best car ever built!" back in the 1970s:
> 
> Tesla and Model 3 represent the 21st century analogue. The opportunity is still there! :thumbup:


1. The Dale was never built and the "inventor" was a con artist that had been on the lam for 10 years before coming up with the scheme.

2. DeLorean Motor Company, the other company being compared to Tesla in this thread, built a total of 9,000 DeLoreans and only about 2/3 of those were sold at the time of the company going bust.

3. Tesla have sold over *500,000* cars.

So yeah, they are EXACTLY the same as every other startup car maker over the last 40 years who went bust.

Not to mention that they are completely supply constrained on battery production for their power-wall products and their solar roof product, which looks like it's going to be pretty damn popular, has had manufacturing issues that have only been sorted out recently. Volume shipments of both of those products in 2019 are going to only further help their bottom line.

But sure, they are going to go bankrupt any minute now.

How much do I stand to lose when Tesla's "house of cards" collapses? Not much. Their IP, battery business, and customer base are worth a fortune and someone will pick them up.

If residual/risk of Tesla is as bad as you and others claim then no bank in their right mind would either invest in Tesla OR offer a lease on a Tesla yet it looks like we will see Tesla model-3 leases later this year.

Still, for the life of me, I can't understand why so many of you despise an American success story so much.

I'm in the process of leasing a new Mini Countryman for my wife. I still enjoy BMW vehicles, but if Tesla was building a tiny 5 door hatch like the Countryman I would be putting one of those in the garage for her instead.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> Half a million auto users polled by Consumer Reports and it seems like I'm not alone with these thoughts.


I feel I need to extend this with some additional info although nothing we didn't already know:

Consumer Reports reverses itself again, no longer recommends Tesla Model 3


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

acoste said:


> I feel I need to extend this with some additional info although nothing we didn't already know:
> 
> Consumer Reports reverses itself again, no longer recommends Tesla Model 3


It looks like the BMW 5 series is no longer recommended as well.

Most satisfying car doesn't necessarily correlate with most reliable. I don't think many of us here bought BMWs because they thought it was the most reliable or cheap to maintain car.


----------



## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> Still, for the life of me, I can't understand why so many of you despise an American success story so much.


If someone told me just a few years ago I'd buy an American car (not even including spending so much on one) I would have laughed.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> I feel I need to extend this with some additional info although nothing we didn't already know:
> 
> Consumer Reports reverses itself again, no longer recommends Tesla Model 3


Consumer reports should report this because it's fairly accurate.... although the data from spring of 2018 doesn't track with what's going on with the bulk of cars that were built in the 2nd half of 2018.

My car has minor fit/finish issues as most (all?) do. One of the more aggravating things about EV is that it's so quiet that you can pick up even more on every little noise that the car makes.

It actually says quite a lot about how good the car is to drive that I put up with this stuff... at least you'd hear this from anyone who knows me fairly well.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> It looks like the BMW 5 series is no longer recommended as well.
> 
> Most satisfying car doesn't necessarily correlate with most reliable. I don't think many of us here bought BMWs because they thought it was the most reliable or cheap to maintain car.


ICE BMWs have poor predicted reliability on CR due to the engine issues back in 2010-2014. All the v8 turbos and the N20 issues. Not something BMW should be proud of. But the first couple of years are usually problem free.
i3 has 5 star predicted reliability.



voip-ninja said:


> Consumer reports should report this because it's fairly accurate.... although the data from spring of 2018 doesn't track with what's going on with the bulk of cars that were built in the 2nd half of 2018.
> 
> My car has minor fit/finish issues as most (all?) do. One of the more aggravating things about EV is that it's so quiet that you can pick up even more on every little noise that the car makes.
> 
> It actually says quite a lot about how good the car is to drive that I put up with this stuff... at least you'd hear this from anyone who knows me fairly well.


This quietness applies for BMWs 5 series and up as well. Any slight creaking can be heard but mine doesn't have any.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

I was criticized here and on TMC as well for what I said that temperature management is easier with pouch cells than cylindrical cells. Now I found a battery expert saying the exact same thing.

@21:16

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlBZ51QLEfs&time_continue=1275


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> I was criticized here and on TMC as well for what I said that temperature management is easier with pouch cells than cylindrical cells. Now I found a battery expert saying the exact same thing.
> 
> @21:16


Jeff Dahn seemingly disagrees.

The only reason for choosing pouch technology TODAY is due to cost savings as they can be manufactured on the same lines that are building similar batteries for other industry applications like mobile device batteries.

Tesla, AFAIK is the only major EV manufacturer that is using the more expensive to build and package AA format cells. When Tesla feels that the advantages are no longer there they will switch over to something else because they are not stupid and have some of the most knowledgeable people in the world (Jeff Dahn and his whole research team) working with them.

If you buy a car TODAY or next year or probably the year after that which is utilizing cell pouch technology it is likely that you are buying a car battery that is going to be harder to properly thermally manage which will result in a shorter overall battery lifespan and faster degradation compared to what Tesla is able to achieve.

In late 2018 a Norwegian survey of over 1,000 Model S batteries indicated that they should have 90% range out to 200,000 miles and an "end of life" at around 500,000 miles with 75-80% original range.

The Model 3 has the same technology as the Model S just with newer/tweaked cell chemistry.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> ICE BMWs have poor predicted reliability on CR due to the engine issues back in 2010-2014. All the v8 turbos and the N20 issues. Not something BMW should be proud of. But the first couple of years are usually problem free.
> i3 has 5 star predicted reliability.


So you make excuses for BMW that skew the data (just based on your assertion) but you don't give the same excuse to Tesla who was very early in the largest vehicle ramp-up of new technology in automotive history after the Model T.

Very telling.



> This quietness applies for BMWs 5 series and up as well. Any slight creaking can be heard but mine doesn't have any.


A review of 5 series, 6 series and 7 series forums show that plenty of them have these types of issues. I would concur that they have them in smaller overall percentage than Tesla.

I would also say that anyone who knows me and knows how picky I am about this kind of stuff would realize that the Model 3 is an amazing to drive car (which it is) because I am not normally very tolerant of this kind of stuff.

Stuff that annoys and bothers me doesn't even register on the radar scope of your average owner.

I'm not worried one iota about CR removing their "recommends" rating... because it doesn't cut much ice with people in market for Model 3 unless they are going to come from something very inexpensive, very reliable... which, I suspect, makes up a small % of Model 3 owners.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Jeff Dahn seemingly disagrees.


I did the math on my own and he is wrong.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Searched for BMW powertrain and found this:

"One thing is clear, the new battery modules will be made of li-ion prismatic battery cells.

I asked Stefan Juraschek, BMW's head of electric powertrains, about the decision to go with prismatic cells.

The engineer explained that they considered cylindrical and pouch cells but they see advantages building modules for prismatic cells when it comes to things like cooling and manufacturing."

https://electrek.co/2018/06/25/bmw-next-gen-electric-powertrain-technology-ix3/


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla, AFAIK is the only major EV manufacturer that is using the more expensive to build and package AA format cells.


You made me do a double-take because I was SURE Tesla wasn't using AA/14500 cells and was using 18650s instead. 18650 is quite a bit larger than AA/14500.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FaRKle! said:


> You made me do a double-take because I was SURE Tesla wasn't using AA/14500 cells and was using 18650s instead. 18650 is quite a bit larger than AA/14500.


yeah, mistake on my part, I meant to state "AA *style* cell packaging".

I'm glad that Acosta knows more by doing some napkin math than one of the world's leading authorities on lithium ion technology, someone with a doctorate in chemistry who has something like 100+ patents and has won about 25 major scientific awards in his career.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FaRKle! said:


> You made me do a double-take because I was SURE Tesla wasn't using AA/14500 cells and was using 18650s instead. 18650 is quite a bit larger than AA/14500.


18650 cells are used on the Model S and X. They are 18mm in diameter and 65mm in length. The Model 3 uses 2170 cells which are 21mm in diameter and 70mm in length.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Searched for BMW powertrain and found this:
> 
> "One thing is clear, the new battery modules will be made of li-ion prismatic battery cells.
> 
> ...


It will be interesting to see how well various manufacturers electric powertrains end up comparing to Tesla's. To date, no one has really come close to Tesla's overall performance and efficiency. I think there's no doubt that Tesla has a substantial lead on electric vehicle technology; it's a question of if, and when, the other manufacturers can catch up. I don't think it will be easy.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> yeah, mistake on my part, I meant to state "AA *style* cell packaging".
> 
> I'm glad that Acosta knows more by doing some napkin math than one of the world's leading authorities on lithium ion technology, someone with a doctorate in chemistry who has something like 100+ patents and has won about 25 major scientific awards in his career.


thermodynamics has not much to do with chemistry
napkin math was done in Matlab, but it isn't much complicated anyway

//I already mentioned but will repeat. Jeff Dahn has nothing to do with the cells in the car. His expertise is in NMC batteries.

if you look at the cells you can see it, pretty obvious. only 50deg angle of the cell is facing the cooling strip. Some of the remaining strip length is coupled with the heat conductive paste which isn't perfect. The same capacity with the same cooling efficiency can be done in a tighter space with square setup! In this comparison the cylindrical cell's far end is hotter than the equivalent pouch or prismatic cell.

Tesla picked cylindrical cells due to their cost. Even Telsa's Panasonic lead, Tsuga was wondering why they want that. No major car maker has picked the cylindrical cells.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> It will be interesting to see how well various manufacturers electric powertrains end up comparing to Tesla's. To date, no one has really come close to Tesla's overall performance and efficiency. I think there's no doubt that Tesla has a substantial lead on electric vehicle technology; it's a question of if, and when, the other manufacturers can catch up. I don't think it will be easy.


Performance, I guess you mean acceleration. It is just the matter of sizing the wires and the motor. No new inventions there. This is not like an ICE engine.
Efficiency, look at the Chinese SUV competitors, or at the Tesla Bjorn's highway test. Hyundai Ioniq beats the best Telsa in efficiency once we add vampire drain and also the Bolt beats Model 3 in city driving.
Audi and Jaguar didn't chase high efficiency, they aimed for a cool and original look (which worsens the air drag coeff, main cause for consumption increase) plus they have higher content.
Mercedes has ICE cars with better air drag coeff than Tesla.

I don't see where Tesla would have a lead. Maybe on Twitter.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> So you make excuses for BMW that skew the data (just based on your assertion) but you don't give the same excuse to Tesla who was very early in the largest vehicle ramp-up of new technology in automotive history after the Model T.


"Most advanced vehicle on the planet, nobody has anything like this"

"this is as revolutionary as the Model T was"

Sandy Munro. No it's not the Tesla. It is the BMW i3. Which you called flawed, I wonder why they sold so many of them then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqiBWfsDTAA

For the Model 3 he sent a list of 200+ items where it can be improved.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Performance, I guess you mean acceleration. It is just the matter of sizing the wires and the motor. No new inventions there. This is not like an ICE engine.
> Efficiency, look at the Chinese SUV competitors, or at the Tesla Bjorn's highway test. Hyundai Ioniq beats the best Telsa in efficiency once we add vampire drain and also the Bolt beats Model 3 in city driving.
> Audi and Jaguar didn't chase high efficiency, they aimed for a cool and original look (which worsens the air drag coeff, main cause for consumption increase) plus they have higher content.
> Mercedes has ICE cars with better air drag coeff than Tesla.
> ...


 If it's just a "matter of sizing the wires and the motor", why doesn't everybody do it? Perhaps because there are various trade offs, and no one else has been able to combine the performance with the range and battery life that Tesla currently has. As for the Ioniq beating the Tesla in efficiency, in real world tests, the Tesla has come out on top as often or more often than the Ioniq.

Regarding coefficient of drag, the Tesla Model 3 is .23. What Mercedes to you think has a better CD? As far as I know, no such Mercedes exists.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Consumer reports should report this because it's fairly accurate.... although the data from spring of 2018 doesn't track with what's going on with the bulk of cars that were built in the 2nd half of 2018.


German forums show excessive issues with the less than a month old cars.

https://tff-forum.de/viewforum.php?f=89&sid=c07a902660965075a02abbdf217e4e05

I don't expect a new car company to deliver reliable cars immediately. But Tesla doesn't do much to improve their reliability. Seems like they learnt nothing from the last 6 years.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> "Most advanced vehicle on the planet, nobody has anything like this"
> 
> "this is as revolutionary as the Model T was"
> 
> ...


 Last year in the U.S., BMW sold 6,117 i3s; that doesn't sound like very many to me. At the same time, Tesla sold almost 140,000 Model 3s. The reality is that the i3 was never intended to sell in volume, and only exists for BMW to meet the requirements in various markets like California for zero emission vehicles.

As for improvements, I'm quite sure that Mr. Munro could sent a list of 200+ items where any car that they disassemble can be improved. All complicated mechanical devices have numerous possible ways to improve them.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> German forums show excessive issues with the less than a month old cars.
> 
> https://tff-forum.de/viewforum.php?f=89&sid=c07a902660965075a02abbdf217e4e05
> 
> I don't expect a new car company to deliver reliable cars immediately. But Tesla doesn't do much to improve their reliability. Seems like they learnt nothing from the last 6 years.


First model year cars from any manufacturer tend to have a number of problems. Toyota tends to have fewer problems than most, but a lot of that is because Toyota usually doesn't introduce too many new features on their cars at once. Companies like BMW, Mercedes, and Tesla, that tend to make bigger jumps with new models, usually have more problems.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> If it's just a "matter of sizing the wires and the motor", why doesn't everybody do it? Perhaps because there are various trade offs, and no one else has been able to combine the performance with the range and battery life that Tesla currently has. As for the Ioniq beating the Tesla in efficiency, in real world tests, the Tesla has come out on top as often or more often than the Ioniq.
> 
> Regarding coefficient of drag, the Tesla Model 3 is .23. What Mercedes to you think has a better CD? As far as I know, no such Mercedes exists.


Because copper is expensive. That's one of the trade offs. Strong motor needs strong diffs and links, another cost increase. Tesla saved money on interior and such.

BMW i3 has better battery life for example.

Tesla Bjorn I linked did real word test, all cars drove on the same road at the same time. And as I mentioned, add the vampire drain.

2013 mercedes CLA 180 BlueEfficiency Edition; air drag coeff: 0.22


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Last year in the U.S., BMW sold 6,117 i3s; that doesn't sound like very many to me. At the same time, Tesla sold almost 140,000 Model 3s. The reality is that the i3 was never intended to sell in volume, and only exists for BMW to meet the requirements in various markets like California for zero emission vehicles.
> 
> As for improvements, I'm quite sure that Mr. Munro could sent a list of 200+ items where any car that they disassemble can be improved. All complicated mechanical devices have numerous possible ways to improve them.


The i3 ranked third among all-electric cars sold worldwide from 2014 to 2016. I agree this was a study and not meant to be sold in large numbers.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Because copper is expensive. That's one of the trade offs. Strong motor needs strong diffs and links, another cost increase. Tesla saved money on interior and such.
> 
> BMW i3 has better battery life for example.
> 
> ...


 What are you basing your statement that the i3 has better battery life on? I haven't seen anything to support that. I have seen a lot of real world evidence to support Tesla batteries lasting 200,000+ miles.

When you refer to Tesla Bjorn and a real world test, I assume that you're referring to the following video where a Model 3 came out as more efficient than an Ioniq.
https://youtu.be/150Z4l69CBo
I don't know what the vampire drain is on an Ioniq, but in any case, it's not a significant factor on a Tesla unless the car spends most of its time sitting and is rarely driven. I would also say that for the first 4 cars in Bjorn's test, 3 Model 3s and the Ioniq, the difference in efficiency really isn't meaningful; they're all excellent.

I had never heard of the CLA 180 BlueEfficiency Edition; it certainly has an impressive CD. Is Mercedes still making it, and has it ever been sold in the U.S.?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> What are you basing your statement that the i3 has better battery life on? I haven't seen anything to support that. I have seen a lot of real world evidence to support Tesla batteries lasting 200,000+ miles.
> 
> When you refer to Tesla Bjorn and a real world test, I assume that you're referring to the following video where a Model 3 came out as more efficient than an Ioniq.
> 
> ...


There are not too many sources for the BMW i3 but here is one:

https://www.bmwblog.com/2017/04/24/bmw-i3-long-term-battery-capacity-report-better-expected/

4% capacity loss after three years and 70,000 miles.

Keep in mind that the small battery of the i3 experiences a more charge cycle than the larger batteries. So this 70k miles distance traveled is equivalent to 200k miles of a car with 200 mile range battery.

Same with warranty, BMW gives 100k miles warranty on 70% degradation while Tesla offers the same for a 2-3x larger battery which will experience ~2-3 times less cycle charge by that milestone.

In general NCA (Tesla's battery) has higher energy density but shorter cycle life compared to NMC batteries (most other car makers). These properties can be tweaked somewhat by additives.

Not sure if the CLA was sold in the US. Here is one from Europe:
https://suchen.mobile.de/fahrzeuge/details.html?id=272354551&damageUnrepaired=NO_DAMAGE_UNREPAIRED&isSearchRequest=true&makeModelVariant1.makeId=17200&makeModelVariant1.modelDescription=BlueEFFICIENCY+&makeModelVariant1.modelGroupId=45&minFirstRegistrationDate=2013&pageNumber=1&scopeId=C&sfmr=false&action=topInCategory&searchId=9d3d15be-0235-d76c-7749-37b041797492


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> There are not too many sources for the BMW i3 but here is one:
> 
> https://www.bmwblog.com/2017/04/24/bmw-i3-long-term-battery-capacity-report-better-expected/
> 
> ...


Only the mid range Model 3 has a 100,000 mile battery warranty. Other Teslas are 120,000 or 125,000 miles.

The difficult thing with determining i3 battery life is that the sample size is rather small, and due to the limited range of the version without the range extender, most have not accumulated enough miles to really get a good idea of their battery life. The i3 is still something of an unknown for long term battery life, although I think BMW has some pretty good engineers, so I would expect it to hold up pretty well.

When it comes to Teslas, there have been enough of them with high mileage to really get a pretty good idea of their battery life. Here's one article where they talk about a 500,000 mile battery life being a realistic expectation - Tesla battery data shows path to over 500,000 miles on a single pack

Here's another article stating that - Data Shows Tesla Batteries Lose Less Than 10 Percent Capacity at 160,000 Miles

Various versions of the CLA have been sold in the U.S., but I don't think the BlueEfficiency version was ever sold here.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> "Most advanced vehicle on the planet, nobody has anything like this"
> 
> "this is as revolutionary as the Model T was"
> 
> ...


 I think it should be pointed out that Munro made those comments about the i3 back in 2015. I really don't think he'd say the same today. EV technology has advanced quite dramatically in the last 3 or 4 years. In the following video, Munro sounds very impressed with the Model 3.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

OTA updates:

http://thedrive.com/tech/26679/why-havent-over-the-air-updates-taken-over-the-auto-industry


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> I think it should be pointed out that Munro made those comments about the i3 back in 2015. I really don't think he'd say the same today. EV technology has advanced quite dramatically in the last 3 or 4 years. In the following video, Munro sounds very impressed with the Model 3.


yes, 2015. Model S was out at that time.

he likes the Model 3, I agree.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Teslas death knell?
This EV actually looks good, or gorgeous actually, the batteries don't heat up, 5 minute useful charge and did I mention that it looks great...
https://www.express.co.uk/life-styl...car-GT-300-miles-range-recharged-five-minutes


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Dio///M said:


> Teslas death knell?
> This EV actually looks good, or gorgeous actually, the batteries don't heat up, 5 minute useful charge and did I mention that it looks great...
> https://www.express.co.uk/life-styl...car-GT-300-miles-range-recharged-five-minutes


It's very hard to believe the claimed charging time and no price is mentioned; I'll believe it when I see it. If true, it would represent a major breakthrough in battery technology.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> Teslas death knell?
> This EV actually looks good, or gorgeous actually, the batteries don't heat up, 5 minute useful charge and did I mention that it looks great...
> https://www.express.co.uk/life-styl...car-GT-300-miles-range-recharged-five-minutes


LOL, sure.

It's a concept car using new technology and it relies on charging technology developed by another newcomer.

They are searching for outside manufacturing partners to build it, and they have no ETA on when that might happen.

They boast about a 320 WLTM range rating when the Tesla Model 3 LR has a WLTM rating of 544 km.

Translating into real world (EPA) range numbers means that it will have a range of around 180 miles, a.k.a, city car.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> When it comes to Teslas, there have been enough of them with high mileage to really get a pretty good idea of their battery life. Here's one article where they talk about a 500,000 mile battery life being a realistic expectation - Tesla battery data shows path to over 500,000 miles on a single pack


Cycle life is a more meaningful number than high mileage, as I showed 70k on i3 is equivalent to 200k on let's say SR Model 3 or 300k on LR Model 3.

While I don't say 500k miles on a larger Tesla battery won't happen I would be careful extrapolating the curve seen in the link you shared to 500k. The real cycle life curve has a sharp dropping tale that is hard to predict. It looks something like this:










Some folks with older Model S have already experienced the beginning of the drop of the curve above. Capacity degrades with age as well, not only by cycles.

Recently I found an article that has some good information about current batteries: https://researchinterfaces.com/know-next-generation-nmc-811-cathode/


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Cycle life is a more meaningful number than high mileage, as I showed 70k on i3 is equivalent to 200k on let's say SR Model 3 or 300k on LR Model 3.
> 
> While I don't say 500k miles on a larger Tesla battery won't happen I would be careful extrapolating the curve seen in the link you shared to 500k. The real cycle life curve has a sharp dropping tale that is hard to predict. It looks something like this:
> 
> ...


 According to Tesla, the number of charging cycles aren't necessarily that important. They state that for longest battery life that the battery should be kept away from the extremes of fully charged or discharged. The battery should be kept somewhere in the middle of its charge range. This will, of course, result in more charge cycles than letting the battery run all the way down and then charging it all the way up.

From an ownership perspective, I really don't care about the number of charge cycles; mileage is a much more important metric. If I get 200k+ out of the battery pack before it starts losing a significant amount of its capacity, I'll be pretty happy. If a significant dropoff occurred at 70k, I'd be pretty unhappy.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Tesla released and demoed their new V3 supercharger last night and the charge rate for the existing long range Model 3 is 250kw and exceeds 1000 miles per hour of charge for the initial portion of the charge. A Tesla engineer executive indicated that the time to charge the car from 20% to 60% battery at a V3 supercharger would be about 15 minutes.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla released and demoed their new V3 supercharger last night and the charge rate for the existing long range Model 3 is 250kw and exceeds 1000 miles per hour of charge for the initial portion of the charge. A Tesla engineer executive indicated that the time to charge the car from 20% to 60% battery at a V3 supercharger would be about 15 minutes.


" 20% to 60% battery at a V3 supercharger would be about 15 minutes"

Assuming the total charging and discharging roundtrip efficiency (79%) this number suggests that the speed from 20% to 60% is around 146kW. (115kW effective)

The 250kW part at the beginning of the curve is fake.

When comparing the SoC curve to the power curve there is a big discrepancy there.

For example based on the SoC curve:
8-20% SoC in 5 min comes to an average speed of 132kW (104kW effective).


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> " 20% to 60% battery at a V3 supercharger would be about 15 minutes"
> 
> Assuming the total charging and discharging roundtrip efficiency (79%) this number suggests that the speed from 20% to 60% is around 146kW. (115kW effective)
> 
> ...


Nobody has production charging as fast as Tesla now does. Jaguar I-Pace

So put that in your pipe and smoke it.

We'll see what Porsche is able to do with their claimed 350kw DC charging on the Taycan.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Nobody has production charging as fast as Tesla now does. Jaguar I-Pace
> 
> So put that in your pipe and smoke it.
> 
> We'll see what Porsche is able to do with their claimed 350kw DC charging on the Taycan.


Watch the 2014 BMW i3 charging speed.

That looks like 90% from 6% in 40 minutes. Tesla finally has something comparable. 5 years later.

And one more thing. When BMW says 40kW charging. That means effective usable capacity increase.
When Tesla says 250kW charging. That is how much the charger provides. To whom is that relevant? We will see later on peoples data how much they are lying. This 250kW is a gimmick. Peak charge for 1 minute...


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

The i3 has a 40kw battery. The model 3 LR has a 75kw battery. Max charge rate on i3 is 100 amps.

For a guy who claims to be an engineer you are pretty ignorant and obtuse about the basics.

The Tesla was already faster than the i3, now it***8217;s twice as fast.



> Charge time for the i3s is about 4.8 hrs 0-100% on a Level 2 J1772 and 0-80% charge in 30 min on a Level 3 DC charger at 50 kW. As a Tesla***8217;s battery is much larger, charging takes longer. The Model 3 home charging comes with more capability than the BMW as the Model 3 is able able to take home charge up to 48 amps or approximately 11 kW. A typical 30 amp home 1772 Charger, though should take 10-11 hours on a Model 3 from near empty, though a 48 amp charge would decade that time to about 8 hours. A Tesla SuperCharger can add up energy at staggering rates up to 120 kW. This is more than twice possible DC charge rate in a BMW i3.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Watch the 2014 BMW i3 charging speed.
> 
> That looks like 90% from 6% in 40 minutes. Tesla finally has something comparable. 5 years later.
> 
> ...


 A percentage of charge per unit of charge time is a totally useless metric from an actual use standpoint. What matters is how many miles of range are added per unit of charge time. In that real world metric, Tesla S, X, and 3 totally destroy the i3. The V3 Superchargers only extend that lead.

The bottom line with the V3 chargers is that they will substantially decrease charge times for Teslas, especially when they are at low states of charge. Tesla has the fastest rate of charge of any electric vehicle available today by a substantial margin even before V3. We'll see what happens in the future with vehicles like the Taycan, but today nothing comes close to the Teslas.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> The i3 has a 40kw battery. The model 3 LR has a 75kw battery. Max charge rate on i3 is 100 amps.
> 
> For a guy who claims to be an engineer you are pretty ignorant and obtuse about the basics.
> 
> The Tesla was already faster than the i3, now it's twice as fast.


Nope. I was talking about the 22kWh i3. (19kWh usable)


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Wow this thread is now hidden, it looks like only the locals would go out of the way to get here. 

It is amazing to see the price cuts from Tesla in the last 3 months, although it can just be supply outstripping demand and Tesla has to deal with the inventory buildup. 

The local storage lots around the factory is jam packed, so Europe/China sales better be stellar, but there seems to be no data on those markets yet.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Tesla dropped $50,000 off the S and X models in Europe...did they also cut the prices this much in the US..? Current owners are really mad !!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Model 3 has $6000 price cut, plus the repackaging of EAP + FSD to AP + enhanced FSD looks like another $2000 cut? So that is $6000 to $8000 drop(albeit offset by $3750 fed credit cut).

A coworker got really mad when his spanking new $144k Model X now goes for $99k(or something around that), albeit some top-end features(e.g. ludricrous?) is now extra cost.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The following post from another thread is worth re-posting.

It would be interesting to hear the thoughts from voip on his list below given the sequence of events in the last 3 months.

My $1000 Model 3 reservation is still in place, but our strategy is to keep holding out, just in case there are additional price cuts.

And for those who do appreciate my emotionless analysis(esp. on Tesla pricing), they do have extra $$$$$ kept in their pockets. :thumbup:



voip-ninja said:


> Your analysis has been anything but emotionless. You have used the tactics of sowing fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) to undermine any argument for why someone would choose a Model 3 over a competitor vehicle. Legitimate criticism is one thing, but you've basically on a mission to passive aggressively imply that only an idiot would choose one of these cars. You also have a mysterious circle of friends who own numerous Model 3s and all of them are as unhappy with the car as you appear to be... all of them have buyer's remorse.
> 
> I'm not going to pick through your many many posts that have done this but the summary would be;
> 
> ...


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The following post from another thread is worth re-posting.
> 
> It would be interesting to hear the thoughts from voip on his list below given the sequence of events in the last 3 months.
> 
> ...


 I'd be very surprised to see any cuts to the base price of the $35k or $37k variants of the Model 3. I think there's room for some additional cuts on the other models, but less than what we've already seen.

I could see the option prices being cut. There's no way that the optional paint colors should cost what they do, and the white interior shouldn't cost any more than the black interior to install, for instance. Also, AP and FSD cost Tesla effectively nothing on an incremental basis, so any additional funds they get for those two options add to the bottom line. The only question there is at what price do they get the largest overall dollars.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I'd be very surprised to see any cuts to the base price of the $35k or $37k variants of the Model 3. I think there's room for some additional cuts on the other models, but less than what we've already seen.
> 
> I could see the option prices being cut. There's no way that the optional paint colors should cost what they do, and the white interior shouldn't cost any more than the black interior to install, for instance. Also, AP and FSD cost Tesla effectively nothing on an incremental basis, so any additional funds they get for those two options add to the bottom line. The only question there is at what price do they get the largest overall dollars.


Yes Tesla white paint is non-metallic, right? It puzzles me why it costs extra.

And yes, AP and repackaged FSD can see further price cut.

On the base prices, a few(e.g. voip) on this thread declared anyone who did not delve in before December 31 was an idiot.

It is *this type of Tesla FUD that can hurt fellow fester's pocket books*, and that is quite unfortunate.

Let's see how the Europe/China/US sales looks like this and next month, there is sometime before the next credit cliff.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Yes Tesla white paint is non-metallic, right? It puzzles me why it costs extra.
> 
> And yes, AP and repackaged FSD can see further price cut.
> 
> ...


Give our festers credit for having minds of their own.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Give our festers credit for having minds of their own.


Amen! :thumbup:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

It's interesting to watch the progression of talking points on the Autoline after hours show from complete skepticism at what Tesla is doing to them now pretty much acknowledging that Tesla is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Sandy Munroe who had some excellent legitimate criticism of the Model 3 when he tore it down seems to have come around pretty much full circle into being something of a Tesla fan boy. He even indicates that he wishes he bought stock (but can't for legal reasons).

Multiple Autoline contributors also commenting that Tesla is completely crushing the Europeans right now.

Also always funny to listen to the luddite dinosaur cranks that call into this show.... people still parroting ancient talking points about electric cars causing brownouts, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DucRxWz_58


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

This is also good since I don't think anyone has seen this type of comparison yet and Jalopnik has historically been extremely critical of Tesla;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgu6mkKZwNg


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Is the Tesla Model 3 the 3 series killer? If you look at the numbers, it would certainly seem to be, unless there's a need for frequent 200+ mile drives in a day.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Is the Tesla Model 3 the 3 series killer? If you look at the numbers, it would certainly seem to be, unless there's a need for frequent 200+ mile drives in a day.


The market is efficient, and the prices account for these effects, e.g. $3k below invoice(so round $6k off MSRP) after incentives is available on G20 330i, which starts selling just last month.

Similarly, Tesla does not drop prices for fun, it is all for business and survival.

So it is all good for customers who stay emotionless.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The market is efficient, and the prices account for these effects, e.g. $3k below invoice(so round $6k off MSRP) after incentives is available on G20 330i, which starts selling just last month.
> 
> Similarly, Tesla does not drop prices for fun, it is all for business and survival.
> 
> So it is all good for customers who stay emotionless.


 Then figure in $3,750 federal tax credit, and a Model 3 SR+ is still cheaper than a 330i. Since you didn't mention it, I assume that you acknowledge that the discount possible on a 340ix or an M3 is nowhere near enough to make up for the difference in cost compared to the equivalent Model 3.

Do you really think you can get $6k off on a 330i optioned with just the driving assistance package and heated seats? I think that might be possible on a totally loaded out 330i, but I'd be surprised on what is nearly a bare minimum 330i.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

GregD said:


> Then figure in $3,750 federal tax credit, and a Model 3 SR+ is still cheaper than a 330i. Since you didn't mention it, I assume that you acknowledge that the discount possible on a 340ix or an M3 is nowhere near enough to make up for the difference in cost compared to the equivalent Model 3.
> 
> Do you really think you can get $6k off on a 330i optioned with just the driving assistance package and heated seats? I think that might be possible on a totally loaded out 330i, but I'd be surprised on what is nearly a bare minimum 330i.


What's funnier honestly is he continues to push the idea that you can get a G20 BMW for $3,000 under invoice.

Not where I live you can't.

If someone is as budget conscious as he tries to come across then there's no wiggling out of the fact that the Tesla is also going to save you hundreds a dollars a year in fueling costs. The first year that might be a wash with getting the 240V outlet installed in your garage but every year after that it is definitely real money saved.

If you kept the car for seven years would save you at least several thousand dollars.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The market is efficient, and the prices account for these effects, e.g. $3k below invoice(so round $6k off MSRP) after incentives is available on G20 330i, which starts selling just last month.
> 
> Similarly, Tesla does not drop prices for fun, it is all for business and survival.
> 
> So it is all good for customers who stay emotionless.


Do you think that the Model 3 has helped to drive down 330i prices? If so, what do you think it's going to do to M340i and M3 prices?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The market is efficient, and the prices account for these effects, e.g. $3k below invoice(so round $6k off MSRP) after incentives is available on G20 330i, which starts selling just last month.
> 
> Similarly, Tesla does not drop prices for fun, it is all for business and survival.
> 
> So it is all good for customers who stay emotionless.


So how many 3 series do you think BMW will sell in the USA this year and how many Tesla Model 3 do you think will be sold?

I think BMW is going to struggle to move 100,000 of all 3 series variants in the USA this year and Tesla is likely to deliver over 200,000 Model 3s in the US market.

Here's the 3/4 series numbers so far;

January/19 - 4068
February/19 - 5064
March/19 - 6495

March is the best month by far and probably reflects the rise in interest with a new higher performance model becoming available. I would WAG that they will have their best month ever sometime later this year at just around 10K units.

Also a fun reference point is that in Germany there were over 2,000 new Model 3s registered in the month of March and those consist solely of the higher optioned variants that compete price wise with higher end Audi/Merc/BMW. I wonder how many G20 were registered in Germany in March?

If Tesla can do that well in BMWs back yard it does not bode well for BMW long term.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> What's funnier honestly is he continues to push the idea that you can get a G20 BMW for $3,000 under invoice.
> 
> Not where I live you can't.
> 
> ...


And if you live in Colorado like we do, there's another $5k rebate from the government, or if you live in California, it's $2.5k.


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## targaone (May 10, 2018)

The big advantage that exists with bmw is that anyone can own and operate one that can be used as a family car or commuter car or vacation car. The technology is proven and the cars are very fun to own. 

The Tesla might be a great car if you enjoy technology , but you need to keep recharging it on a daily basis. If its your second or third car that's fantastic... if your a one car person your now planning on renting a car for a vacation. Or taking a lot longer to get somewhere, or your flying or taking a train for any trip longer than 400 miles... 

A friend is an auto writer and got a fully electric car.. what he found was the charge places listed on his computer were shut off at 8 pm with a store , or inside a parking garage where you needed to have student or teacher access to get to it.. or out of service , or just impossible to find the actual location... so he was really limited to a car dealer where hours were very limited or his 120 volt 15 amp outlet in his garage.... that would not charge higher than 7 amps. 

So fun on paper with future promise... but not ready for prime time use. Maybe in San Francisco or LA or Dallas.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

targaone said:


> The big advantage that exists with bmw is that anyone can own and operate one that can be used as a family car or commuter car or vacation car. The technology is proven and the cars are very fun to own.
> 
> The Tesla might be a great car if you enjoy technology , but you need to keep recharging it on a daily basis. If its your second or third car that's fantastic... if your a one car person your now planning on renting a car for a vacation. Or taking a lot longer to get somewhere, or your flying or taking a train for any trip longer than 400 miles...
> 
> ...


Over 200,000 owners disagree with you and frankly a lot of the stuff you are espousing is easily debunked.

I don't need to charge my car "every day" and rarely do. I get free charging at work so I typically charge the car for a few hours for free every couple of days for my normal commuting and I try to time things so that I leave work on Friday afternoon with 90% on the battery so I can drive all weekend without ever charging it.

Last weekend I left work with 89% on the battery of my LR dual motor 3. I put 148 miles on the car over the course of the weekend (ran lots of errands) and came to work today with 45% on the battery, so still didn't "need" to charge.

During the winter when it was 20F outside I charged the car at home to 100% and took the family on a day trip to Dillon, CO. Round trip it was about 190 miles with a couple of side stops. I didn't need to charge the car and when I pulled into the garage it had 17% on the battery. This is in very cold temps when the car is getting the worst range possible. If I had needed to stop there are literally hundreds of charging locations along the route not to mention super charging. Supercharging now, with latest software allows for speeds where you can charge the battery from 20% to 80% in about 40 minutes. The new Level-3 charging stations that will start to trickle in this year can do the same amount of charging in as little as 15 minutes. Literally the time needed to stop, take a leak, get something to drink and walk back to the car.

If you are a person who lives in a smaller town or city that does not have any supercharging capability and you do a LOT of driving (with no time to plug your car in overnight and top it up) then you have a point.

Otherwise, you really don't have much of a point.

There are plenty of valid criticisms to level against Tesla's newest car but insisting it's a "short range car only for city folk" is not one of them.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

targaone said:


> The technology is proven and the cars are very fun to own.


Once you experience a high performance EV though your bar of fun that can be had in an automobile gets drastically raised. So much so that it really is impossible to go back.



targaone said:


> The Tesla might be a great car if you enjoy technology , but you need to keep recharging it on a daily basis.


This is true. I spend 8 seconds plugging it in when I come home then wake up to a fresh charge. It's like some magical fairies whisked by and did the annoying task of taking my car to the gas station and filling up. While I'm sleeping. Everyday.

I'll take 8 seconds of plugging in everyday and waking up to a fresh charge to dealing with the lines and the chore of visiting the gas station once a week.



targaone said:


> A friend is an auto writer and got a fully electric car.. what he found was the charge places listed on his computer were shut off at 8 pm with a store , or inside a parking garage where you needed to have student or teacher access to get to it.


Yes, frankly this is where Tesla's simple, easy to use and integrated fast charging network has its advantage (along with its very large range).

EVs aren't for everyone, it's especially true if you don't have the ability to charge overnight at home. But let's get real - this is 2019 and your reasons sound like they are from a decade ago. High performance EVs can now be the superior solution to many - even to the hardcore car enthusiast.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

voip-ninja said:


> This is also good since I don't think anyone has seen this type of comparison yet and Jalopnik has historically been extremely critical of Tesla;
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgu6mkKZwNg


Sounded to me the Jalopnik crew is getting turned around on Tesla too.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> This is all speculation on your part. Let's see what they say on the next earnings call in a couple of weeks. I do know that if Tesla gives more specifics on a lease program for this calendar year that the chance you will be back here to eat some humble pie is 0%.
> 
> According to the raw data on the Bloomberg production tracker they are cranking out 6,000+ units a week now and we know that they have not shuttered the factory yet this year for any significant period of time.
> 
> Bankwuptcy is imminent!


It is speculation, that's correct.

Leasing became finally available https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-leasing/tesla-begins-offering-leases-for-model-3-idUSKCN1RO0AT but with a caveat: customers will not have the option to buy their cars at the end of the lease. Base SR model is gone if it ever existed. LR RWD gone as well.

This makes me wonder (yes my speculation): 
- either there is no leasing partner
- or it is some financing trick


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> It is speculation, that's correct.
> 
> Leasing became finally available https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-leasing/tesla-begins-offering-leases-for-model-3-idUSKCN1RO0AT but with a caveat: customers will not have the option to buy their cars at the end of the lease. Base SR model is gone if it ever existed. LR RWD gone as well.
> 
> ...


Weren't you just telling me yesterday that Tesla wasn't leasing because they couldn't find a willing financial partner and in desperation they dumped prices of their cars?

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Do you ever get tired of being so terribly wrong about these things?

You also somehow managed to miss the news that Tesla *killed the $35,000 Model 3 base* and increased the prices of all cars to include autopilot. What a remarkably boneheaded decision for a company struggling with plummeting demand to make!!

https://electrek.co/2019/04/11/telsa-35000-model-3/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> It is speculation, that's correct.
> 
> Leasing became finally available https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-leasing/tesla-begins-offering-leases-for-model-3-idUSKCN1RO0AT but with a caveat: customers will not have the option to buy their cars at the end of the lease. Base SR model is gone if it ever existed. LR RWD gone as well.
> 
> ...


So the *price cut continues*, now AP(standard equip except for SR) is $2000 instead of $3000. The SR and LR are still available but has to be via phone or in-store, so Tesla is directing customers to high(er) priced models.

Your speculation on no leasing partner also makes sense, as by including returned cars into Tesla's hail-riding service(and as part of Tesla's asset), Tesla effectively takes RV out of the equation, and pledges its balance sheet on these "lease" contracts, so it is a balance sheet trick so to speak.

If the above is true, then a participating non-captive bank(if any) will be basically out-sourced financial service versus actual leasing partner.

Also the lowest monthly for 36 months is $500 + $4199 drive off($3k down) according to below article, so it is $22k(including tax?) for 3 years. Now let's see what customer's response would be. 

"Tesla also announced the start of a Model 3 leasing program in the US. The lease runs for 36 months, and lessees can choose from three annual mileage allotments -- 10,000, 12,000 or 15,000 miles per year. All Model 3 configurations are available, according to Tesla, and the price obviously varies with each. The minimum deposit is $3,000, but the payment due at signing will vary from $4,199 to $4,584 depending on the variant. Monthly payments vary from a little over $500 for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus to $889 for the Model 3 Performance."

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-model-3-lineup-adjustment-leasing/


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> So the *price cut continues*, now AP(standard equip except for SR) is $2000 instead of $3000. The SR and LR are still available but has to be via phone or in-store, so Tesla is directing customers to high(er) priced models.
> 
> Your speculation on no leasing partner also makes sense, as by including returned cars into Tesla's hail-riding service(and as part of Tesla's asset), Tesla effectively takes RV out of the equation, and pledges its balance sheet on these "lease" contracts, so it is a balance sheet trick so to speak.
> 
> ...


Did it occur to you that Tesla might be able to cut the price of Autopilot substantially because they are using their own in-house hardware for AP3 instead of using the cards provided by Nvidia before?

Probably not.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

According to Tesla sales guy, as of right now, the auto-pilot (AR) price cut is tiered:

Performance with AR has no price increase, so $3k price cut
LR AWD with AR is $1k extra, so $2k price cut
SR+ with AR is $2k extra, so $1k price cut

SR off menu - AR is $3k option, no price cut (but SR can still be configured without AR)
LR with AR off menu is $3k extra, no price cut

Wow this is even more complicated than BMWNA's monthly playbook!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

namelessman said:


> One option is to cut AWD cost on LR to $2k too.


A friend just reminded me, in reality the latest Model 3 prices reflect exactly as predicted, namely, Tesla is narrowing the gap of LR AWD versus LR RWD from $4k to $2k!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Do you think that the Model 3 has helped to drive down 330i prices? If so, what do you think it's going to do to M340i and M3 prices?


That is a fair question, so are M3 and M340i selling at significant discounts off MSRP?

For sure Tesla drops Performance by $20k(right?) in a year, plus another $3k in the latest price drop by throwing in $0 cost Auto-pilot.

So do M3 and M340i sell similar discounts from a year ago?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> P.S. The author also says, "Truth be told you can't order that exact configuration." Comparing apples and imaginary oranges.


For Tesla, exact configurations may not be present, but it is usually very close given the lack of options/packages anyway. So it can be red delicious* apple* versus gala *apple*.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> :rofl:
> 
> You haven't found it because it doesn't exist and is fiction. I bought the most highly optioned Performance model, ticked every box except white seats.
> 
> ...


Is there a breakdown of the price of your Performance?

And your same config can be purchased for $66k out-of-pocket today, versus $68.5k that was paid 10 months ago after $7.5k fed credit and $5k performance pkg refund?

My friend did show me price quotes from Tesla stores last May/June for that $78k + $5k EAP price on Performance, it is possible there were price drops even before any Performance was delivered. :dunno:


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...ormance-at-78000-topping-at-86000-126099.html
> 
> And early Model 3 Performance is $78k + $5k EAP + $1.2k(or was it $1500?) destination(FSD was extra $3k)
> 
> ...


And the numbers in the article are just wrong, but obviously nothing will dissuade you from believing such rubbish, so have at it.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> And the numbers in the article are just wrong, but obviously nothing will dissuade you from believing such rubbish, so have at it.


Well Elon did tweet this about Performance:

"Cost of all options, wheels, paint, etc is included (apart from Autopilot). Cost is $78k ...." Oh well.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> And the numbers in the article are just wrong, but obviously nothing will dissuade you from believing such rubbish, so have at it.


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status...a-moves-mass-market-model-3-beyond-the-masses


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Well Elon did tweet this about Performance:
> 
> "Cost of all options, wheels, paint, etc is included (apart from Autopilot). Cost is $78k ...." Oh well.





acoste said:


> https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/998085655958769665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E998085655958769665&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2018-05-20%2Fat-78-000-tesla-moves-mass-market-model-3-beyond-the-masses


 So now Elon never makes mistakes on twitter.  Also, it seems he didn't have a crystal ball in order to tell that the $5k performance upgrade would be refunded. You can throw around all the numbers you want, but the actual net cost is what matters, and on that, you're way out of the ballpark.

Here's a window sticker from an early Model 3 Performance model. You can tell because it shows the performance upgrade as a $5,000 option. This is the $5,000 that was later refunded. Add in $5k for enhanced autopilot and $3k for full self driving for a total of $81k minus the $5k later refunded for a net price to Tesla of $76k including destination and doc. Take off the $7,500 federal tax credit, and you're down to *$68.5k*. Please note that this was also with the most expensive color and interior. The image is large, so I'll just provide a link.
Link - http://i.imgur.com/FlRzLyu.jpg

If you go to tesla.com today and configure the same car with the autopilot and full self driving, the total is $68,900 without the destination and doc fee. Add in the $1,200 for D&D, and your total is $70,100. Take off the current $3,750 federal tax credit and you're down to *$66,350*. Please see the attached for the configuration I just ran on this on tesla.com.

So, net to net for the most expensive Model 3 you could buy back when the Performance models were first produced compared to its cost today, *it is $2,150 cheaper now*. Again, this is a far cry from your $8k to $20k cheaper. You can only start to get to numbers like that by ignoring reality, specifically the facts that $5k was refunded for those who paid for the performance package and the tax credit was $3,750 higher.

P.S. Just for comparison's sake, try configuring a BMW M3 to this as closely as possible. Without the Executive Package, it comes to $76,375 before destination and doc fees, and it gives up parking distance control, parking assistant, automatic high beams, and heated rear seats relative to the Model 3. Add on the Executive package and the price goes to $82,635, but it has a head-up display, top view camera, and adaptive headlights that the Tesla doesn't have. If you want a serious autobahn or track toy, the BMW M3 is the better choice, but for pretty much everything else, I think the Model 3 has the M3 beat at a lower cost.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Does $84,800 sound better?

https://electrek.co/2018/06/26/tesla-model-3-update-options-pricing-dual-motor/


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Does $84,800 sound better?
> 
> https://electrek.co/2018/06/26/tesla-model-3-update-options-pricing-dual-motor/


:rofl::thumbup:

At least I assume that you mean it as a joke. :eeps:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Does $84,800 sound better?
> 
> https://electrek.co/2018/06/26/tesla-model-3-update-options-pricing-dual-motor/


That was the price quote from Tesla store back in June 2018 too, thanks for locating it!:thumbup:

The article did say the price points were moved a bit since:

base - $64k
exterior upgrade (wheels, trims, spoiler?) - $5k
interior upgrade - $1.5k
EAP - $5k
FSD - $3k
destination - $1.5k(?)

To compare to "base" Performance right now, which includes "AP" and exterior upgrade, plus interior upgrade, the equivalent price back in, say July 2018, should be $64k + $5k + $1.5k + $5k + $1.5k(dest) = $78k.

With 10% CA tax, that becomes $86k, minus $7.5k yields $79.5k, minus $5k refund yields $74.5k.

Compared to out-of-pocket of $63.5k of current Performance pricing(remember AP + exterior + interior are included), there is still a *$11k difference*.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Again, this is a far cry from your $8k to $20k cheaper.


The $8k out-of-pocket drop on LR AWD is not just from article in post#3037, it was also complained about on popular tesla forums. The fact that your specific purchase turned out OK is not experienced by all Tesla early adopters.

And the $20k price delta on Performance did get help from $5k refund on Performance package, and another $4k-5k drop in Performance price somewhere in June/July 2018(compared to early Tesla/Musk price info), nonetheless it is still $10k+ drop in price.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Here's a window sticker from an early Model 3 Performance model. You can tell because it shows the performance upgrade as a $5,000 option. This is the $5,000 that was later refunded. Add in $5k for enhanced autopilot and $3k for full self driving for a total of $81k minus the $5k later refunded for a net price to Tesla of $76k including destination and doc. Take off the $7,500 federal tax credit, and you're down to *$68.5k*. Please note that this was also with the most expensive color and interior. The image is large, so I'll just provide a link.
> Link - http://i.imgur.com/FlRzLyu.jpg
> 
> If you go to tesla.com today and configure the same car with the autopilot and full self driving, the total is $68,900 without the destination and doc fee. Add in the $1,200 for D&D, and your total is $70,100. Take off the current $3,750 federal tax credit and you're down to *$66,350*. Please see the attached for the configuration I just ran on this on tesla.com.
> ...


The numbers on this post were shown to a few other clear headed Model 3 owners at breakfast, and a few observations were made:

1. comparison of this type must include sales tax delta, or else $3750 tax credit deficit cannot be correctly accounted for.
2. *they did not configure FSDs but with EAP*, so for them, the MSRPs are $78k(FSD being $3k in July 2018,* $81k - $3k = $78k*), versus $64k(FSD now being $6k, *$70k - $6k = $64k*).

Do note $81k and $70k are your numbers, not mine.

Now apply CA sales tax, and subtract fed credits::

In July 2018: $78k + $7.8k - $7.5k = $78.3k
In April/May 2019: $64k + $6.4k - $3.75k = $66.4k

Again, the *out-of-pocket drop is $11k+*, and that matched my calculation.

The key thing probably is if FSD(which is still not delivered?) is included or not, both for LR AWD and Performance comparison.

Plus the drop in MSRP already gives a $1k+ CA sales tax savings!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The numbers on this post were shown to a few other clear headed Model 3 owners at breakfast, and a few observations were made:
> 
> 1. comparison of this type must include sales tax delta, or else $3750 tax credit deficit cannot be correctly accounted for.
> 2. *they did not configure FSDs but with EAP*, so for them, the MSRPs are $78k(FSD being $3k in July 2018,* $81k - $3k = $78k*), versus $64k(FSD now being $6k, *$70k - $6k = $64k*).
> ...


 Since you continue to ignore the $5k refund and insist on including sales tax which varies from location to location, you're obviously more interested in playing games than anything else here. Please note that any sales tax on the $5k was refunded as well. I'm done here.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Since you continue to ignore the $5k refund and insist on including sales tax which varies from location to location, you're obviously more interested in playing games than anything else here. Please note that any sales tax on the $5k was refunded as well. I'm done here.


To be fair, the clear headed Model 3 owners told me that* $5000 refund also gives up free supercharging*, so they said their preference is to keep supercharging, hence my number does not take that $5000 off.

Obviously nowadays there is no free supercharging(until Musk decides to spur demand again!), so the number may look different too.

OK, take that $5.5k refund off from $11.5k, so $6k out-of-pocket drop in my locales, so it is more than $2150, but less than $11k/$20k.

And* it beats me how/why sales tax does not matter* ....

*So the truth is somewhere in between as usua*l!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I bought a LR AWD fairly early on, with the only option being the paint. The price was $55k to Tesla and before taxes and registration. *Add in the $2,000 that I paid for autopilot in March* and the total is $57k. After tax credits, my total purchase cost was $44,500.
> 
> Today, the exact same configuration is $52,100. After current tax credits, my purchase cost today would be $43,350, for a savings of *$1,150* versus what I paid. I think a lot more people are in a situation similar to mine than the $8k to $20k you're stating.


An inquisitive mind in our lunch crowd picked up the *numbers game(or apple-to-orange*) played in the above paragraphs.

1. Instead of purchasing EAP for $5k early on, say, July 2018, the AP was added in March 2019 for $2k. That is a $3k savings due to the price drop.

2. If a brand new LR AWD is ordered in* April/May*, there will be *another $1k(or $2k?) drop* since AP is standard option and is included in base MSRP.

So technically the alleged $1150 savings has *extra $4k to $5k savings on top* of those who paid early adopter prices in July 2018. Including the sales tax delta, the $6k to $7k savings of my previous posts is legit!

That is a great move and congrats on the extra savings!:thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Why do Americans want Tesla to fail? I am with Jay Leno. Since when did the US become like the British where we prefer the grand failure to the innovative success? Tesla is an American company employing Americans and yet the US is its toughest market with people actively working against it. Maybe I'm showing my age but I miss the 60's when science was revered and Americans rooted for American companies. I can understand people finding fault with Tesla but I would have expected Americans to be rooting for them and pointing out their successes. Instead, here and elsewhere, people seems bent on Tesla's destruction. I just don't get it.


This is a worthwhile point to explore. From my perspective Tesla innovates in two tech fronts, first being BMS, second being FSD.

Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does. In fact, all 3 major battery suppliers(who spend billions on battery innovations) are non-US, the 4th upstart also is non-US. Tesla's main claim of fame(to me) is BMS, specifically they were first to seriously address wear leveling, plus maintain constant temp range. The core battery tech tough is not done by Tesla, instead the big 3 (and in coming years 4) non-US suppliers spend serious dough to get reliability, longevity, density improved over time. Even the cell versus pouch type trade-offs are not done by Tesla.

To be truly an innovative American company, Tesla probably should start battery R&D in-house, but frankly Tesla does not have enough cash to fund that, yet. For now, Tesla's success is benefiting lots of non-US jobs(which is what global free trade means anyway).

So how innovative is Tesla's BMS(and also battery module design and packaging)? Most Tesla fans believe they are state-of-the-art, and that is believable. The essence of BMS and packaging though do not have high enough tech moat, and plainly old school, meaning many can figure out and/or reverse engineer, and/or have been doing it in one form or another for decades in non-automotive applications. So there may not enough bleeding-edge innovation to keep Tesla way ahead for long.

On the second front of FSD(and AI), Tesla does have some tech moat, but there are also 100(or more) startups and upstarts and incumbents with various degrees of pros/cons, and financial might, chasing down the same pot of gold(plus poaching stuff left and right). More importantly AI(and FSD being one killer app) is non-trivial, and the Tesla God chip(which is out for a year now?) can become obsolete in 12+ months, so again it may not be innovative enough to help Tesla to stand head and shoulder above all others.

And being SV company, Tesla is subject to the destructive power of innovation anyway, and Tesla being 16-year-old on July 1 2019 probably is showing its age somewhat. 16-year is an eternity in SV.

Those are my thoughts on this subject.


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## st_o_p (Sep 30, 2003)

SR22pilot said:


> ...
> 
> Why do Americans want Tesla to fail? I am with Jay Leno. Since when did the US become like the British where we prefer the grand failure to the innovative success? Tesla is an American company employing Americans and yet the US is its toughest market with people actively working against it. Maybe I'm showing my age but I miss the 60's when science was revered and Americans rooted for American companies. I can understand people finding fault with Tesla but I would have expected Americans to be rooting for them and pointing out their successes. Instead, here and elsewhere, people seems bent on Tesla's destruction. I just don't get it.
> 
> ....


The answer is very simple. Tesla is disrupting several (not one) established, large, and very profitable industries. Most notably - the oil companies (they very realistically may go the way of coal if Tesla succeeds), then traditional automakers (that find it hard to compete - and it will get worse over time if Tesla is successful), and auto-dealers (which Tesla puts directly out of business). There are probably others.

Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage. In the era of highly biased full of spin news - that is not hard to accomplish. There are people that are doing it professionally - and they are for hire (some of the posters on this forum included). It has gotten to the point where if you want objective news/information (simply the facts, without the spin) - you really have to discard a lot of the news articles on both sides (the haters and the cult-like fans that emerged as a counter-reaction).
(Same as in politics with the right- and left- biased news and very little objectivity).

I really wasn't much of a Tesla fan - I kind of liked the company but that was about it. Once I bought one, and got a first-hand experience - that's when I got really impressed. It's by no means perfect - but it is very impressive. And that is when I started getting annoyed by the smear campaign against Tesla. :thumbdwn:

I fully understand - it is hard to make a man see a point if his paycheck depends on him not seeing it. But the efforts to destroy Tesla really rub me wrong - trying to kill a fantastic product, clean/sustainable future, and American production and technological lead - for narrow-minded self-interest.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Contrary to what other Tesla fans said on this thread, Tesla does not own the battery tech, but Panasonic does.


Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

st_o_p said:


> The answer is very simple. Tesla is disrupting several (not one) established, large, and very profitable industries. Most notably - the oil companies (they very realistically may go the way of coal if Tesla succeeds), then traditional automakers (that find it hard to compete - and it will get worse over time if Tesla is successful), and auto-dealers (which Tesla puts directly out of business). There are probably others.
> 
> Tesla is now subject of a well organized - and I suspect well financed/expensive - campaign of disinformation, smear, and to a lesser extent outright sabotage. In the era of highly biased full of spin news - that is not hard to accomplish. There are people that are doing it professionally - and they are for hire (some of the posters on this forum included). It has gotten to the point where if you want objective news/information (simply the facts, without the spin) - you really have to discard a lot of the news articles on both sides (the haters and the cult-like fans that emerged as a counter-reaction).
> (Same as in politics with the right- and left- biased news and very little objectivity).
> ...


In addition any industry that employs professional drivers is also going to be put out of business if/when Tesla manages to perfect full self driving. There are a lot of vested interests out there that have good reason to want Tesla to fail.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.


Q4 conference calls may provide some clues to inquisitive minds(subject to interpretation as usual).

Musk's comment:

"Well, there's really 3 things: there's the cell, the module, and the pack. We'll be making the module and the pack, so it's really just a question of cell supply. We can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry."

The nitpicky commentatory:

"These kinds of fundamental cell chemistry research efforts are not undertaken lightly, and involve a great deal of effort and experimentation by highly trained scientists. It might, therefore, have seemed reasonable to believe that Tesla's advanced cell chemistry know-how is a large part of the "secret sauce" that gives the company an edge in its market-leading EVs and energy storage products. But Musk's comment that "We can essentially use any high energy density 2170 chemistry" suggests that *much of Tesla's technological performance and cost-efficiency edge comes from its module and battery pack design, engineering, and production assembly.*"

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/0...y-high-energy-density-2170-will-do-for-tesla/

Tesla did file patents on battery tech, e.g.:

"Tesla also has filed patents on lithium-ion cell chemistry, such as the recent example of a patent disclosure which "includes two-additive electrolyte systems that *enhance* performance and lifetime of Li-ion batteries, while reducing costs from other systems that rely on more additives."

The big 3 non-US battery suppliers have troves of IP's and patents of these battery cell techs, it is unclear if Panasonic also co-own these *enhancement patents* that Tesla files(one may need NDAs to get that info, and frankly won't comment on public chit-chat forums), or if these enhancement patents really are consequential enough.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Do you have something to back this up. I know that I've read that at least some of the battery chemistry was developed by Tesla, and that Panasonic and Tesla have a partnership on the batteries. That said, I haven't found anything definitive one way or the other as to who "owns" what technology on the batteries.


That is the NMC battery from Jeff Dahn.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> BMW disagrees with you, at least on the 5 series where the specs are available today. According to BMW, a 530i xDrive weighs 3,926 pounds while a 530e xDrive weighs 4,407 pounds. Also, while BMW claims an electric only range of 28.5 miles, the EPA says it's actually 15 miles. To get a real 50 miles of electric only range out of it would involve a lot more batteries increasing the weight even more.


I thought you are talking about competition to BEVs. So I compared a BEV to a PHEV and I said it explicitly.



GregD said:


> It isn't the basic engine itself wearing out that I'm concerned about; it's all the various bits and pieces breaking after a while. Things like having to replace the entire cooling system every 100,000 miles, or less or having virtually everything plastic or rubber under the hood dying after 100,000 miles, or automatic transmissions that die after 100 to 150 thousand miles. Carbon build up in intake manifolds, leaky valve cover gaskets, rebuilding VANOS systems, and on and on and on. Yeah, the basic engine block may be good for 500k, but plenty of other parts are not.
> 
> Also, in real life, it is an infinitesimally small number of people who drive their cars like taxis. Cooling down and heating up the engine is an everyday occurrence, if not multiple times per day.


Cooling system gets stressed by the frequent heating cycle. If one uses the ICE only on the weekend long trips the number of cycles reduces by 70%. So the 100k miles becomes 350k miles. Also the cooling system gets stressed in the city driving. But it is relatively cool on the highway. Every plastic ages with the number of heating cycles. 
Similarly with the lubricated parts. Most deposit happens with a cold engine. Long highway runs clean the engine and removes moisture and gasoline from the engine oil. Many things that are issue on a city driven ICE are non existent on a highway queen.



GregD said:


> As for the engine on a PHEV only being used on long range trips, that's nonsense unless you consider anything more than 15 miles long range in the case of the 530e. It's also nonsense because almost all of them use the gas engine whenever the car is driven in an even mildly aggressive manner, like accelerating on to the freeway for instance. In fact, the gas engine in most PHEVs frequently cycles on and off.


Not nonsense at all. I'm thinking of buying the Porsche Panamera E-Hybrid. Owners report 30 miles real world range. That is enough for my commute with 50% margin.
Porsche has several driving modes. There is an option not to use the ICE engine until the battery reaches 5% state of charge.

Future PHEVs will have more range.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> I thought you are talking about competition to BEVs. So I compared a BEV to a PHEV and I said it explicitly.
> 
> Cooling system gets stressed by the frequent heating cycle. If one uses the ICE only on the weekend long trips the number of cycles reduces by 70%. So the 100k miles becomes 350k miles. Also the cooling system gets stressed in the city driving. But it is relatively cool on the highway. Every plastic ages with the number of heating cycles.
> Similarly with the lubricated parts. Most deposit happens with a cold engine. Long highway runs clean the engine and removes moisture and gasoline from the engine oil. Many things that are issue on a city driven ICE are non existent on a highway queen.
> ...


 Not too many people only drive their cars on longer trips on the highway. Your scenario isn't realistic for the vast proportion of drivers.

As for the Panamera Hybrid, either sell it before the warranty runs out or plan on some very expensive repair bills.

Also, again looking at weight, the Panamera Hybrid at 4,784 pounds, weighs over 600 pounds more than the Panamera 4S. If you want to compare the Panamera Hybrid to an electric vehicle, the Tesla Model S is the obvious choice and it weighs 4,883 pounds in the long range version. So, yes, the Tesla weighs 100 pounds more, a pretty insignificant amount more at that weight, but it has 20% faster acceleration and uses half as much electricity in the process even if you could only run on the batteries in the Panamera hybrid. It also has a lower center of gravity and doesn't need to turn on an extra engine every time you want to accelerate quickly.

A hybrid has all the complexity of an ICE car and an electric car combined. Long term, this does not bode well for the vehicle's reliability.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want a Panamera Hybrid. To me, the main reason to buy a Panamera versus all the other high end sedans out there, is because you want the sporty Porsche driving experience. If you just want luxury, you're better off with a 7 series, S class, or Model S. Having driven them both, I do think that a regular Panamera 4S is a bit more fun to drive in a sporty fashion than a Tesla Model S, but I think most of that is because of the lighter weight of the Panamera. With the hybrid, it ends up being a similar weight to the Tesla, and I think the Tesla would actually be more fun to drive, due to the instant response of the more powerful drivetrain and its lower center of gravity. It also helps the Tesla that a similar performing model is quite a bit less expensive than the Panamera, and the fastest Model S is quite a bit faster than the fastest Panamera.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want a Panamera Hybrid. To me, the main reason to buy a Panamera versus all the other high end sedans out there, is because you want the sporty Porsche driving experience. If you just want luxury, you're better off with a 7 series, S class, or Model S. Having driven them both, I do think that a regular Panamera 4S is a bit more fun to drive in a sporty fashion than a Tesla Model S, but I think most of that is because of the lighter weight of the Panamera. With the hybrid, it ends up being a similar weight to the Tesla, and I think the Tesla would actually be more fun to drive, due to the instant response of the more powerful drivetrain and its lower center of gravity. It also helps the Tesla that a similar performing model is quite a bit less expensive than the Panamera, and the fastest Model S is quite a bit faster than the fastest Panamera.


Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want a Tesla as it has the worst reliability, worst service department and the company uses the owners as guinea pigs and a checking account in the self driving system development.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want a Tesla as it has the worst reliability, worst service department and the company uses the owners as guinea pigs and a checking account in the self driving system development.


Well, your above comments about Tesla are a matter of opinion which many of us don't agree with. Leaving the Tesla argument alone, I still don't get why anyone would want a Panamera Hybrid versus a regular Panamera or some other luxury car. Can you explain why?


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> For someone (e.g. myself) who is impartial to AP/FSD, and wants a bit more engaging experience than typical Tesla A to B(as suggested by the reviewers), the BMW EV can be a good option.


If 19 buttons to mess with on the steering wheel (as was mentioned in the G20 3 Series video) is considered 'engaging' to you then a car from a traditional maker is probably best - it will be unlikely they'll transition to the clean cockpit of the Tesla anytime soon.

Myself, engagement means handling and throttle response. And the Model 3 is just heaps better here. So I wasn't too certain what that one guy meant by A to B driving as I'd pick my Model 3 for engagement too.

My BMWs are really only better for me as track day cars right now. Because of that one of them is slowly becoming a track car with track focused alignment, brake pads and tires. I'm taking it to Laguna Seca next week.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Well, your above comments about Tesla are a matter of opinion which many of us don't agree with. Leaving the Tesla argument alone, I still don't get why anyone would want a Panamera Hybrid versus a regular Panamera or some other luxury car. Can you explain why?


Responding to the Tesla first it is not just an opinion and you quickly wanted to skip the subject. Basically Tesla makes good cars, but it's just a small percentage of the total cars they sell. One has to be lucky to get those.

https://www.whatcar.com/news/2018-what-car-reliability-survey/n17824
(reliability score 50.9%)
"41% of the Tesla Model S cars owned by those who responded to the survey had faults."
"Just over half of the cars were out of action for at least a week and some fixes cost more than £1500,"

https://insideevs.com/news/351171/tesla-model-3-boom-norway-problems/
"Tesla's complaints per unit in 2018 were more than three times higher than the average both for electric cars and cars in total."

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...iends-family-that-want-to-buy-a-tesla.153633/
How honest are you about Tesla issues when speaking to friends/family that want to buy a Tesla?

"First, I told him that there are software glitches. Then I told him OTA updates come out often. etc..

Phone key sometimes not working, back up cam not coming on occasionally, and having to mess with windshield wiper controller on the screen while driving are some of the things I wouldn't want my father to deal with.
I would not recommend the car to anyone.
If someone who has watched dozens of Youtube videos and who is aware of all the little problems ask me about the car, then I would be talking about other things like efficiency and driving feel.
Also, I would not recommend AP unless they are aware of phantom braking and ambivalence when the lanes merge.
"

"It can do a lot of things but not reliably."

"It is a nice car, don't look too close to it like a QA guy, don't mind about being misinform from the salesman, don't mind about all those price changes daily that you will miss out, and best of all don't crash it or else kiss your car goodbye for a long time"

Survey on the Porsche from the first link (reliability score 94.5%)
"Some 20% of Porsche 911s had a problem, but most (13%) were non-engine electrical issues that were rectified in a day. The 911's overall score is dragged down by 7% of cars, which had engine problems that took more than a week to resolve. All cars were fixed for free, though."

You made me laugh hard that the PHEV Panamera in my use case would need more repair than a Tesla. I have already explained it to you why the PHEVs in this operating mode will last a lot longer than a short range PHEV or an ICE. Not gonna repeat it.

As for autopilot. If you are ok to be the test dummy that's fine. Just don't use autopilot around me. If you are ok to work for free for Tesla and monitor the system constantly + report bugs, that's ok. And if you are ok to pay for the damages that were caused by a bug in the software that's fine as well.

Now the Panamera. Tesla's luxury content is far from any of the Germans so those are not comparable.I want a quiet car. I also don't want rattles. And I don't want a BEV as I prefer PHEVs. 
Mercedes/Audi/BMW/Porsche are targeting different groups of people. There are Mercedes guys, Audi fans and so on. The Porsche and the BMW groups are the closest to each with some overlap.
I'm a BMW 5 series guy, that's the perfect size and feels like home. Panamera is the only similar car from Porsche. 911 is too small, not my style, however I love driving them and the sound with the top down. I'm bored in an Audi/Mercedes even if it's AMG. The only exception is the G Mercedes. 
As for which car is faster, I don't mind if the Panamera is not the fastest. I just need a fast car.

I don't expect high maintenance costs due to their good reliability. But even if it happens, not going to make me broke.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> If 19 buttons to mess with on the steering wheel (as was mentioned in the G20 3 Series video) is considered 'engaging' to you then a car from a traditional maker is probably best - it will be unlikely they'll transition to the clean cockpit of the Tesla anytime soon.
> 
> Myself, engagement means handling and throttle response. And the Model 3 is just heaps better here. So I wasn't too certain what that one guy meant by A to B driving as I'd pick my Model 3 for engagement too.


Your post#3097 says this:

"given the question of what they'd pick *if BMW made an all electric 3 series that drove as well as the Tesla ....*"

To be fair, this all electric 3 series is not yet in sight yet, so it is unclear if it has 19 buttons, but as far as your proposition in post#3097 goes, this future 3 series EV has to have handling and throttle response at par(or better than?) Tesla, right?


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The comment in post#3089 says "starting 2020", given 200-mile range offerings from Mini, Nissan, VW, and others will start to roll out.


You said "a sizeable volume". That to me is in numbers of vehicles sold not numbers of models. By the way VW is not going to sell the ID.3 in the US. The only info I found on a Mini EV shows it using the i3 power train which does not have 200 mile electric range.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> As for autopilot. If you are ok to be the test dummy that's fine. Just don't use autopilot around me. If you are ok to work for free for Tesla and monitor the system constantly + report bugs, that's ok. And if you are ok to pay for the damages that were caused by a bug in the software that's fine as well.


CR is not happy withTesla Autopilot Navigate mode, although it appears not to be default mode. One guy at lunch today said the driver should see all those polygons and lines and 0's and 1's that the computer sees, just like Tank in the Matrix!

https://www.consumerreports.org/aut...nge-requires-significant-driver-intervention/

It does feel like the current Tesla owners are like unpaid test pilots for Tesla, a few paying with their lives.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> You said ***8220;a sizeable volume***8221;. That to me is in numbers of vehicles sold not numbers of models. By the way VW is not going to sell the ID.3 in the US. The only info I found on a Mini EV shows it using the i3 power train which does not have 200 mile electric range.


To be fair, post#3086 says this ".... a sizable shift to EVs of all makes".

"Sizeable" means "big".

"Shift" means, well, "shift", it can be applied to a number of things, e.g. volume, mindset.

Starting 2020 the EV landscape will see a pipeline of offerings, which may or may not ramp up EV volume quickly(TBD). What may also shift is the mindset of general public as far as EV is concerned, and that will help Tesla.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> :blah::blah::blah: Rag on Tesla :blah::blah::blah:
> 
> Mercedes/Audi/BMW/Porsche are targeting different groups of people. There are Mercedes guys, Audi fans and so on. The Porsche and the BMW groups are the closest to each with some overlap.
> I'm a BMW 5 series guy, that's the perfect size and feels like home. Panamera is the only similar car from Porsche. 911 is too small, not my style, however I love driving them and the sound with the top down. I'm bored in an Audi/Mercedes even if it's AMG. The only exception is the G Mercedes.
> ...


 Well you went on and on and on bashing Tesla and never did answer the question presented in the post you were supposedly responding to. Are you just here to troll? Can you actually answer the question I asked? Also, if you're "a BMW 5 series guy", why not buy another 5 series?



GregD said:


> I still don't get why anyone would want a Panamera Hybrid versus a regular Panamera or some other luxury car. Can you explain why?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Well you went on and on and on bashing Tesla and never did answer the question presented in the post you were supposedly responding to. Are you just here to troll? Can you actually answer the question I asked? Also, if you're "a BMW 5 series guy", why not buy another 5 series?


I don't like the rear end of the G30. Too girlish. Plus 530e is a 4cyl. If they came up with 540e, inline 6 & 50 miles range, I would give it a thought specially that it's half the price of the Pana.

Why PHEV? I don't want to pollute in the city. And I feel sorry for the ICE which hates short trips. EV is perfect for those. And I can drive silently or I can drive in spirited ICE mode, enjoying the engine sound.
Yes, the weight is a minus for sure. But the active sway bars help a lot. I have zero body roll on my 550i in the curves.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

Have fun with your 4800lb PHEV :rofl:. Just sounds like the worst of both worlds to me, I agree with GregD. Don't want the complexity of both in one car and carry the weight and complexity of two complete drive and power trains. 

I'll take an all electric spaceship torque and speed monster like the Model 3 along with a lightweight ICE dedicated track monster. Two cars but best of both worlds.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> To be fair, post#3086 says this ".... a sizable shift to EVs of all makes".
> 
> "Sizeable" means "big".
> 
> ...


I guess that is what you meant. If you say so.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> I'll take an all electric spaceship torque and speed monster like the Model 3 along with a lightweight ICE dedicated track monster. Two cars but best of both worlds.


Once 2-car setup is accepted, there should be quite an array of options to consider in addition to Tesla EV + BMW ICE. E.g. there is a coworker that drive Sienna as DD and 911 GTS as track.

That brings up another point, namely, my impression is that BMW's UDM (esp. M) supposedly provides one car(comfort + competence, with compromise?) for both use, so the demand, at the right prices, for BMW's(ICE and subsequently its EV/hybrid) should still be around.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Once 2-car setup is accepted, there should be quite an array of options to consider in addition to Tesla EV + BMW ICE. E.g. there is a coworker that drive Sienna as DD and 911 GTS as track.
> 
> That brings up another point, namely, my impression is that BMW's UDM (esp. M) supposedly provides one car(comfort + competence, with compromise?) for both use, so the demand, at the right prices, for BMW's(ICE and subsequently its EV/hybrid) should still be around.


I wanted an i3 for city driving next to the 550i but my wife hates the look of it. Hope i can convince her to replace her super boring Acura with this X5 PHEV.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I wanted an i3 for city driving next to the 550i but my wife hates the look of it. Hope i can convince her to replace her super boring Acura with this X5 PHEV.


The i3 + extended range street drives at UDE events were great, it was just that when extended mechanism kicked in, the car had no zoom going uphill! 

On paper i3 + extended is a great idea, but in practice someone needs to improve it, a lot(in addition to the look, which subjectively is not too bad for me).


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

---removed duplicate post ---


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

A Tesla hits a truck while on Autopilot and it is big news. A car hits a truck while on cruise control and no one notices. Then again, in most cases, it is impossible to know if the car was on cruise control. 

Europe is about to undergo a dramatic change. City centers are beginning to crack down on ICE cars and that will increase. Countries are talking about when (not if) they will ban the sale of ICE cars. In Europe, 200 miles of range is probably workable for a lot of people. In the US, 200 miles, to me, is still a city car. In Europe CCS charging is prevalent. In the US, Tesla has the only large scale fast charging network although Electrify America may change that. It may not be 2020 but I think 2021 is when the shift will become apparent to most people. Norway is already over 50% EV sales. California is 5%. ICE cars will continue to sell for a long time but they are under assault. 

People once thought they were glorified golf carts. Then Tesla showed otherwise. Next it was straight line performance only. However, the Model 3 is changing that on the low end and we are seeing electrification even in the exotics. The Pike's Peak hill climb record is now owned by an electric car. If performance ceases to matter and it is just the experience, then perhaps the Miata moves to the top or even an old Triumph TR6. 

There is a reason automatics have replaced manuals on most cars. Daily driving is what people do most of the time - not long trips or track time or mountain road jaunts. Having owned many manual shift cars I can tell you I prefer an automatic when in stop and go traffic. All alone on a twisty road is something entirely different. The instant response of electrics combined with one pedal driving is wonderful in daily driving. 

I'm curious what an electrified 3 series will be like. I hope BMW does a better job than Audi. Audi got a lot right but 204 miles on a very large battery pack is a huge issue for me. I'm trying to keep an open mind with respect to Porsche. The original Mission E was stunning but the Taycan seems to be morphing into a Panamera which I find more blah in terms of styling. The Porsche statement that they will separate regenerative braking out from the accelerator is also disappointing. 

I've been a car person since I was very little but the only car brand I probably ever hated was the Yugo. I understand different people liking different things but the hatred I don't understand.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

The next Macan will be only electric. 

Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


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## BeerBaron (May 23, 2019)

This thread is like the "steam guys" bashing petrol cars. 

Electric cars already are the future. Many mechanics will be replaced with IT techs, but not all. Tomorrow's hotrod tuners are today's computer science majors. 

Electric cars are only going to get better, not worse, and they are still really in their child years. They already do near as makes no difference, everything better than petrol cars. In 10 years your Ferrari of today won't even be able to touch a mid level electric car, or truck.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

BeerBaron said:


> This thread is like the "steam guys" bashing petrol cars.
> 
> Electric cars already are the future. Many mechanics will be replaced with IT techs, but not all. Tomorrow's hotrod tuners are today's computer science majors.
> 
> Electric cars are only going to get better, not worse, and they are still really in their child years. They already do near as makes no difference, everything better than petrol cars. In 10 years your Ferrari of today won't even be able to touch a mid level electric car, or truck.


One mistake a lot of people make is to look at where things are rather than where they are going. People looked at solar back in 1980 and said it was too expensive and stopped there. Today prices are much lower and payback is often more like 6 to 8 years. People look at batteries today and think they will stay the same. In reality performance keeps improving and costs keep going down.

EV's keep getting better. Yeah, so do ICE cars but the improvements in EV's are more dramatic.


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## targaone (May 10, 2018)

When delivery trucks become electric then we will know that the price point has been hit. 

If your looking at a 7000 dollar used car based on performance and cost of ownership , the electric aspect is here partially. My neighbor has bought 3 used toyota prius cars. Paid about 4 or 5 k and put on new tires and suspension parts.. they are not big or super comfy, but they are super reliable and get fantastic mileage. Two of them have made trips from milwaukee to california , my friends son is an engineer and got a job with tesla... 

When a used fully electric car is at that cost factor used... the new selling price would be around 25 k. We are not there yet... the batteries are getting better, range is getting better. Recharge places in the midwest are very sketchy at best. But my friends doing new houses or updates are all making 240 volt high current drops in their garage plans.. so that will be the first stage. People will be comfortable with one fully electric car if they can charge it at home.


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## st_o_p (Sep 30, 2003)

BTW - I just realized something.

If I want to update the maps in my BMW - I have to pay what, $200 ?? I always thought people are crazy to pay something like that for a map update - but many do.
Well - I get the maps update on my Tesla navigation - not only for free but over the air (and I believe more often than once a year - but not sure about that part).


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## st_o_p (Sep 30, 2003)

BTW - I just realized something.

If I want to update the maps in my BMW - I have to pay what, $200 ?? I always thought people are crazy to pay something like that for a map update - but many do.
Well - I get the maps update on my Tesla navigation - not only for free but over the air (and I believe more often than once a year - but not sure about that part).


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

st_o_p said:


> BTW - I just realized something.
> 
> If I want to update the maps in my BMW - I have to pay what, $200 ?? I always thought people are crazy to pay something like that for a map update - but many do.
> Well - I get the maps update on my Tesla navigation - not only for free but over the air (and I believe more often than once a year - but not sure about that part).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz8qS_LtBxg


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## Thomv (Jan 27, 2012)

Two options - from the same supplier.
Map updates for $115.00
of
Screen mirroring of phone.

https://www.bimmer-tech.net/shop/bmw-x5-e70/connecteddrive-retrofits/bimmertech-smartview


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bz8qS_LtBxg


It's true that newer BMWs do have the ability to update the map data over the LTE connection. However there are quite a few disadvantages compared to Tesla's approach, such as needing to allow the Nav system to restart to reload the new map data.

The Tesla updates the nav/map data while the car is plugged in and charging and any update/actions happen with no user involvement and no perceived "down time".

Also, since Tesla seems to have an agreement with Google to get their map data the maps are far more accurate in my experience and are updated far more frequently.

Not much of a deal to those who rarely stray far from home but solid gold to someone who does a lot of longer distance travel to places they aren't familiar with.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

My Genesis required $100+ for each Nav update and you had to download it, put it on a USB and then take that to the car and do the installation. I do think this is changing. It reminds me of the change from limited texting plans to unlimited texting. Market forces are pushing a change. The old map model came out prior to the advent of smartphones. It is dying a slow death but it will die. Originally the dealerships were insisting that all updates be done through the dealership. However, they seem to have conceded in this area.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> It's true that newer BMWs do have the ability to update the map data over the LTE connection. However there are quite a few disadvantages compared to Tesla's approach, such as needing to allow the Nav system to restart to reload the new map data.
> 
> The Tesla updates the nav/map data while the car is plugged in and charging and any update/actions happen with no user involvement and no perceived "down time".
> 
> ...


I think they are using OpenStreetMap through Mapbox and Valhalla. Not Google.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

https://www.prnewswire.com/il/news-...earch-from-regulus-cyber-shows-300871146.html

Tesla NoA hacked.

"the car reacted as if the exit was just 500 feet away***8212;abruptly slowing down, activating the right turn signal, and making a sharp turn off the main road. The driver immediately took manual control but couldn't stop the car from leaving the road."


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste said:


> https://www.prnewswire.com/il/news-...earch-from-regulus-cyber-shows-300871146.html
> 
> Tesla NoA hacked.
> 
> "the car reacted as if the exit was just 500 feet away-abruptly slowing down, activating the right turn signal, and making a sharp turn off the main road. The driver immediately took manual control but couldn't stop the car from leaving the road."


Sounds similar to how Iran captured a US stealth drone i.e. spoof the GPS signal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-U.S._RQ-170_incident

If you are worried about GPS spoofing, then be careful of aircraft because they are also heavily reliant on GPS including for many instrument approaches.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

SR22pilot said:


> Sounds similar to how Iran captured a US stealth drone i.e. spoof the GPS signal.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran-U.S._RQ-170_incident
> 
> If you are worried about GPS spoofing, then be careful of aircraft because they are also heavily reliant on GPS including for many instrument approaches.


That's a lot more difficult to do. The closer the vehicle is to the ground the easier it becomes to spoof it. And aircrafts navigate based on radars near the airport.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste said:


> That's a lot more difficult to do. The closer the vehicle is to the ground the easier it becomes to spoof it. And aircrafts navigate based on radars near the airport.


Actually a GPS approach has nothing to do with radar. If the area is under radar supervision then the pilot might receive a deviation warning. However, a 300' vertical or lateral error could be deadly. There are a lot of airports where radar coverage doesn't extend to the ground. You will be out of radar coverage in the final segment of the approach.

Spoofing GPS is difficult. I'm not worried about it. Jamming GPS is much easier but systems usually handle that gracefully by notifying the pilot or driver of loss of signal integrity.

I run into jamming once when flying up the east coast of Florida. The navy was conducting experiments. You realize how dependent you have begun when both units lose signal. Fortunately ATC just gave me a heading till I exited the test area.

Tesla is actually pushing a heavily vision based system which should eventually be more hardened to spoofing. Key word here is eventually. Waymo and Cadillac depend much more on precision mapping.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

I just test drive the model-X. My “seat-of-my-pants meter” tells me it is just as punchy as my M4 was, if not moreso. 

On-ramp pickup is instantaneous. If this is any metric of how the Model-Y will be, there’s not a lot keeping me from kicking this ‘18 X3 to the curb.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> I just test drive the model-X. My "seat-of-my-pants meter" tells me it is just as punchy as my M4 was, if not moreso.
> 
> On-ramp pickup is instantaneous. If this is any metric of how the Model-Y will be, there's not a lot keeping me from kicking this '18 X3 to the curb.


Which version of the Model X did you drive?


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

GregD said:


> Which version of the Model X did you drive?


 it didn't have anything above "sport" in the driving mode options.

The seats were more comfortable than my X3 and CX-5 (current models)

That Tablet screen......massive!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> it didn't have anything above "sport" in the driving mode options.
> 
> The seats were more comfortable than my X3 and CX-5 (current models)
> 
> That Tablet screen......massive!


If it didn't have Insane or Ludicrous modes, then it should be a standard or long range model that does 0-60 in either 4.6 or 4.4 seconds.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

GregD said:


> If it didn't have Insane or Ludicrous modes, then it should be a standard or long range model that does 0-60 in either 4.6 or 4.4 seconds.


It was long range. I recall hearing that. I was a bit caught up in the moment when I was getting situated in the vehicle for the test drive. While the autonomous feature was cool, until it "gets the update" for stop and go at lights, it's really just a novelty.

Interesting thing the associate told me was that the driving modes in the "basic" X don't affect dynamics, just steering feedback (tightness)?

The immediate pull when punching the gas is as exhilarating as it was in my M4


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The $35,000 "budget" Model 3 does 0-60 in about 5.5 seconds and handles like it's on rails.
> 
> No sports sedan enthusiast would even consider that Toyota econobox.


One of the Mirai guys traded in his aging E90.

My main objection of Mirai is its stormtrooper look. However the car is surprisingly well mattered at corners, it is possible it may have decent weight distribution(no published spec) given the components distributed along the length of the car.

And when these FCEVs get a decent battery(say, 10kW+) their 0-60 probably will improve too.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> One of the Mirai guys traded in his aging E90.
> 
> My main objection of Mirai is its stormtrooper look. However the car is surprisingly well mattered at corners, it is possible it may have decent weight distribution(no published spec) given the components distributed along the length of the car.
> 
> And when these FCEVs get a decent battery(say, 10kW+) their 0-60 probably will improve too.


It sounds like your friend is a penny pincher and not a sports sedan enthusiast.

$100 says that nobody who drove both cars and was told they could get either one for a similar monthly payment would choose the slug Toyota.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> It sounds like your friend is a penny pincher and not a sports sedan enthusiast.
> 
> $100 says that nobody who drove both cars and was told they could get either one for a similar monthly payment would choose the slug Toyota.


BTW it is worth noting that this Mirai feels more solid than other econo Toyota, but not as good as Lexus, so it is somewhere in between.

And there lies the rub, $10000 all-in for the Mirai versus $18000 all-in budget Model 3(e.g. SR with 15000 miles a year) probably can sway a few sports sedan enthusiasts to dive into the new frontiers of FCEV.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> BTW it is worth noting that this Mirai feels more solid than other econo Toyota, but not as good as Lexus, so it is somewhere in between.
> 
> And there lies the rub, $10000 all-in for the Mirai versus $18000 all-in budget Model 3(e.g. SR with 15000 miles a year) probably can sway a few sports sedan enthusiasts to dive into the new frontiers of FCEV.


Give me a break, you can make the same penny pinching comparison between lease cost on a 320i vs a Hyundai Sonata but anybody who drove both would know which one drives and handles like a proper sports sedan.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Give me a break, you can make the same penny pinching comparison between lease cost on a 320i vs a Hyundai Sonata but anybody who drove both would know which one drives and handles like a proper sports sedan.


Have u ridden/driven in a Mirai/Clarity FC?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Have u ridden/driven in a Mirai/Clarity FC?


I don't have to drive it to know that I don't want a slow car that's based on tech that is rapidly being outpaced by pure electric vehicles.

Now that Tesla have completed acquisition of Maxwell technologies we can expect to see pretty rapid advancements over the next few years on Tesla battery performance, especially in the area of even shorter charging times and longer range.

Do you really think there's a viable market for something like a Mirai hydrogen car when you have Tesla cars getting 400+ miles of range and being able to be charged in 10-15 minutes?

There is possibly a market for hydrogen vehicles in fleet services or some other boring application though, so bravo to Toyota for going at it with gusto.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> .... you can make the same penny pinching comparison between lease cost on a 320i vs a Hyundai Sonata ....


The beauty of F30 320i lease was that, or $13000-$14000, or $1000-$2000 extra on top of a Sonata lease , 8% extra, one gets a BMW that is 15-20% better than Sonata.

In contrast, the cheapest Model 3(SR) lease is still 80% more expensive than a Mirai, SR+ lease is 100% more expensive than Mirai.

With this range of price differential, one may consider what FCEV has advantage over BEV, e.g. does FCEV lose as much range as BEV in cold weather?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Do you really think there's a viable market for something like a Mirai hydrogen car when you have Tesla cars getting 400+ miles of range and being able to be charged in 10-15 minutes?


Assuming the same curb weight of, say, 4000+lbs, a jump from 300 miles to 400 miles probably need extra 50% improvement of energy density from batteries(e.g. from 12 lbs/kWh to 6 lbs/kWh)

That kind of improvement can greatly benefit FCEV, as well as PHEV with ICE, as 50+ miles of pure electric range with, say, 15kWh, only adds 100lbs.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> I don't have to drive it to know that I don't want a slow car that's based on tech that is rapidly being outpaced by pure electric vehicles.
> 
> Now that Tesla have completed acquisition of Maxwell technologies we can expect to see pretty rapid advancements over the next few years on Tesla battery performance, especially in the area of even shorter charging times and longer range.
> 
> ...


What range and charge time, say it again, please?

Maxwell doesn't bring a new chemistry, just a new method which certainly helps. But unless Tesla gets into solid state batteries, it will fall behind competition.

Fuel cell cars are here not for outracing the EVs but because there is not enough raw material to produce enough batteries for EVs and renewables' storage. H2 storage is a good alternative. So any debate if EVs are better is pointless. At current tech and as far as we can see in the 10 years there is no battery chemistry that can be scaled up to worldwide vehicle sales, let alone storage.

There is a reason why car makers are so careful about going full electric. "big oil" conspiracy theory is laughable


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> What range and charge time, say it again, please?
> 
> Maxwell doesn't bring a new chemistry, just a new method which certainly helps. But unless Tesla gets into solid state batteries, it will fall behind competition.
> 
> ...


The pre-edited comment you made was better.

You might not care about performance but a lot of us BMW FANS do care about performance and there is no way we're going to pick something with the performance of a wet noodle when there are electric options available with blistering performance.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> You might not care about performance but a lot of us BMW FANS do care about performance and there is no way we're going to pick something with the performance of a wet noodle when there are electric options available with blistering performance.


BMW i3 [email protected] seconds also has lots of BMW FANS(e.g. myself), so Clarity FC/Mirai hitting 8.1-8.5 seconds is not really that bad for EV cars, esp. at the current (early) stages of FC car deployment.

And for customers in cold weather, allegedly subpar performance of fuel cell EV with possibly minimal loss of range may be meaningful compared to losing 50% [email protected] for battery EV.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> There is a reason why car makers are so careful about going full electric. "big oil" conspiracy theory is laughable


BMW CEO was in hot seat recently as it was perceived the company has not gone fully electric quick enough, but my sense is that BMW is in a good spot with its pure battery, hydrogen, and hybrid solutions all available to address upcoming twists and turns, no punt intended!


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> BMW i3 [email protected] seconds also has lots of BMW FANS(e.g. myself), so Clarity FC/Mirai hitting 8.1-8.5 seconds is not really that bad for EV cars, esp. at the current (early) stages of FC car deployment.
> 
> And for customers in cold weather, allegedly subpar performance of fuel cell EV with possibly minimal loss of range may be meaningful compared to losing 50% [email protected] for battery EV.


50% range loss is hyperbole. Does not happen. Even with lots of short hops with a cold soaked car.

I drove my car in sub-zero temperatures and the range loss was about 35%. Big difference. We don't know yet what the range impact is on hydrogen but for sure it will be something, even ICE suffers a 10% to 15% loss in very cold temps.

Tesla's #1 enemy is Tesla. Their service and ability to execute on production and fixing broken cars is a joke.

If Toyota announced tomorrow they were buying Tesla nobody would be more thrilled than me.

However.... there is a market for PERFORMANCE cars and Elon Musk has delivered on his promise of "we don't make boring cars". 0-60 in 8 or 9 or 10 seconds, boring. Hell, 0-60 in 6 seconds boring as hell if you've experienced something in the sub six second range.

Handling? My Model 3 handles so well it makes BMWs and Audis sob hysterically. Corvette owners have to buzz my car with their $85,000 pure sports machines to make sure I know whose the boss after they watch me rocket away from a stop light and hit 60 in 4 seconds.

That's the kind of car I want to buy, not something that's more affordable and practical.

To each their own though, by all means go lease a boring hydrogen-mobile that you can fill up at 50 places in your entire huge state of CA.

As an aside it's pretty damn funny that you and others who have criticized Tesla for only having hundreds/thousands of rapid charging stations and a secondary network of 10's of thousands of 3rd party charging stations doesn't have enough infrastructure but somehow Hydrogen is relevant.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> 5As an aside it's pretty damn funny that you and others who have criticized Tesla for only having hundreds/thousands of rapid charging stations and a secondary network of 10's of thousands of 3rd party charging stations doesn't have enough infrastructure but somehow Hydrogen is relevant.


Hydrogen deployment as of right now is similar to the early Roadster days back in 2008 with zero supercharger around. As acoste said, Hydrogen is relevant as an alternative to pure battery EV, they both move at their own pace. If hydrogen is not truly viable then market forces plus govt phasing out subsidies will take care of its demise.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> 50% range loss is hyperbole. Does not happen. Even with lots of short hops with a cold soaked car.
> 
> I drove my car in sub-zero temperatures and the range loss was about 35%. Big difference. We don't know yet what the range impact is on hydrogen but for sure it will be something, even ICE suffers a 10% to 15% loss in very cold temps.


Well 40%+ happened in personal experience at 10-12F around Tahoe this past winter in Model 3, and there are utube videos of owners reporting 50% drop at 0F. Preheating should help but that burns range too.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

namelessman said:


> Well 40%+ happened in personal experience at 10-12F around Tahoe this past winter in Model 3, and there are utube videos of owners reporting 50% drop at 0F. Preheating should help but that burns range too.


Big whoop. People like me would use it for my 20 minute drive to work each day. So that " 50% reduction" is meaningless. I'd have the 220 charger and plug it in overnight.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Hydrogen deployment as of right now is similar to the early Roadster days back in 2008 with zero supercharger around. As acoste said, Hydrogen is relevant as an alternative to pure battery EV, they both move at their own pace. If hydrogen is not truly viable then market forces plus govt phasing out subsidies will take care of its demise.


That's fascinating, you apparently aren't aware that even Roadster owners could *charge their cars at home every night*.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Big whoop. People like me would use it for my 20 minute drive to work each day. So that " 50% reduction" is meaningless. I'd have the 220 charger and plug it in overnight.


Does 50% loss of range double the cost of cents/mile? If so that may be meaningful.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Does 50% loss of range double the cost of cents/mile? If so that may be meaningful.


Again you are pushing the 50% range loss angle when in nearly all winter conditions the range hit is more like 30% or so.

The winter range loss and inefficiency absolutely affects the value proposition. Instead of the car being about 50% cheaper per mile to operate than a similar gasoline car it's only about 40% cheaper when you average out the efficiency hit year round.

15,000 miles per year -

BMW 330i - 30 miles per gallon. = 500 gallons of fuel per year @ $3 per gallon (premium) is $1500 per year. This is being generous as most owners in real world use won't get those fuel economy numbers.

Tesla Model 3 - 280 real world miles per full charge of the 75 kWh battery is 4,000 kWh per year. National average of around 13.31c/kwh is about $400 per year. So about $532 per year in electric costs. Now factor in about $1,000 for installation of a level 2 charging solution at home and amortize it over 5 years of ownership and the cost is about $732 per year or about 1/2.

Then factor in the 35% range hit for 4-5 months of the year and you wind up with the Tesla still being about 40% cheaper than a gas burner.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> That's fascinating, you apparently aren't aware that even Roadster owners could *charge their cars at home every night*.


Obviously Tesla home charging was preferred even for Roadster owners back in 2008-ish, but it probably needed more than 5 minutes for full charge.

Since "every night" is brought up, one Model 3 owner at work pointed out that his daily plug/unplug takes 30 seconds, or 3.5 minutes per week. His annual mileage is around 10000 miles, so he usually filled up his previous gasoline car every 2 weeks in 5 minutes for 400+ miles or range.

So he now "complains" he spends 40% more time to charge EV than fill up gasoline!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Again you are pushing the 50% range loss angle when in nearly all winter conditions the range hit is more like 30% or so.


Or pick whichever % loss that is applicable to each owner and computes the cost delta.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Obviously Tesla home charging was preferred even for Roadster owners back in 2008-ish, but it probably needed more than 5 minutes for full charge.
> 
> Since "every night" is brought up, one Model 3 owner at work pointed out that his daily plug/unplug takes 30 seconds, or 3.5 minutes per week. His annual mileage is around 10000 miles, so he usually filled up his previous gasoline car every 2 weeks in 5 minutes for 400+ miles or range.
> 
> So he now "complains" he spends 40% more time to charge EV than fill up gasoline!


Only a total idiot would claim that it takes more effort to plug/unplug their Tesla at home than to make special trips to fueling stations, wait in lines, etc., to put flammable gasoline in a vehicle.

Make sure you tell your colleague that I think he's a total idiot, because he is one. I have encountered plenty of legitimate criticism of Tesla vehicles but whining about plugging them in at home? Never.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Or pick whichever % loss that is applicable to each owner and computes the cost delta.


Even if you want to lie and claim a 50% loss in range for an entire 6 months out of the year (Alaska?) you are still going to be cheaper with a Tesla than a gas or probably hydrogen car unless you are in a part of the country that is both cold as the arctic and has crazy expensive electric rates.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

I also get annoyed that I have to take a whizz several times a day now that I drink almost 3 litres of fluids in a day, but it is what it is... 
..... Anyway, every Tesla Model 3 should have this bolt-on body kit
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/modified/every-tesla-model-3-should-have-bolt-body-kit

Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Only a total idiot would claim that it takes more effort to plug/unplug their Tesla at home than to make special trips to fueling stations, wait in lines, etc., to put flammable gasoline in a vehicle.
> 
> Make sure you tell your colleague that I think he's a total idiot, because he is one. I have encountered plenty of legitimate criticism of Tesla vehicles but whining about plugging them in at home? Never.


It was obviously tongue-in-cheek comment.  Our suggestion to him to just build a contraption to plug/unplug automatically!


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Obviously Tesla home charging was preferred even for Roadster owners back in 2008-ish, but it probably needed more than 5 minutes for full charge.
> 
> Since "every night" is brought up, one Model 3 owner at work pointed out that his daily plug/unplug takes 30 seconds, or 3.5 minutes per week. His annual mileage is around 10000 miles, so he usually filled up his previous gasoline car every 2 weeks in 5 minutes for 400+ miles or range.
> 
> So he now "complains" he spends 40% more time to charge EV than fill up gasoline!


Your friend is slow. I figure about 5 seconds to plug in and 5 seconds to unplug. 10 seconds total and not every night.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Just catching up on the thread. Regarding hydrogen, I think it is dead as far as passenger cars. The charging structure is being built out for EV's. Tesla already has a great charging structure in place. Charge times are coming down. You can charge at home (huge). Hydrogen is expensive to make and ship. I do think hydrogen may make sense for ships and potentially airplanes. I also think long haul trucks are a possibility. Cars? NOPE!!!

On a different note, Did you see the comments from BMW's director of development?

***8220;There are no customer requests for BEVs. None. There are regulator requests for BEVs, but no customer requests.***8221;
and
***8220;If we have a big offer, a big incentive, we could flood Europe and sell a million (BEV) cars but Europeans won***8217;t buy these things. From what we see, BEVs are for China and California and everywhere else is better off with PHEVs with good EV range.***8221;
See the article here: https://electrek.co/2019/06/27/bmw-no-demand-all-electric-cars/

BMW has a history of making driving enjoyable. I find the Tesla Model 3 very enjoyable to drive. I find hybrids complex. Am I missing something? I am worried BMW doesn't get where the world is headed and that they will be left behind when they wake up. Porsche is coming out with the Taycan. OK, I need to calm down. I would have hoped to hear a statement about BMW showing people what real fun in an EV is all about.

I believe the Tesla Model 3 is hurting the BMW 3 series and I think the hurt is only going to grow until BMW offers an electric 3 series that beats the Model 3 both 0-60 and around a track. Thoughts?


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

SR22pilot said:


> I believe the Tesla Model 3 is hurting the BMW 3 series and I think the hurt is only going to grow until BMW offers an electric 3 series that beats the Model 3 both 0-60 and around a track. Thoughts?


Sales of BMW brand vehicles increased 1.7 percent in May 2019, compared to 2018."We owe much of our continued growth in 2019 to the new 3 Series sedan and our fleet of U.S.-built Sports Activity Vehicles," said Bernhard Kuhnt, president and CEO.

Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Dio///M said:


> Sales of BMW brand vehicles increased 1.7 percent in May 2019, compared to 2018."We owe much of our continued growth in 2019 to the new 3 Series sedan and our fleet of U.S.-built Sports Activity Vehicles," said Bernhard Kuhnt, president and CEO.
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


Well, Ive certainly been wrong before an may be wrong again. Nothing new. 
tesla most traded in cars and https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-model-3-top-5-trade-in-cars/
One of the cars listed is the BMW 3 series.
Then there was this article:
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-bmw-ceo-could-be-replaced-for-losing-to-tesla-model-3/

I think BMW needs a Tesla Model 3 killer i.e. a BEV version of the 3 series.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Even if you want to lie and claim a 50% loss in range for an entire 6 months out of the year (Alaska?) you are still going to be cheaper with a Tesla than a gas or probably hydrogen car unless you are in a part of the country that is both cold as the arctic and has crazy expensive electric rates.


Well Model 3 owners in Canada in 0F and below territories regularly reports 50% loss in range.

And some Model 3 owners around CA probably would take offense from lies/claims of 30-35% loss in range too, so it is all relative.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> J"If we have a big offer, a big incentive, we could flood Europe and sell a million (BEV) cars but Europeans won't buy these things. From what we see, BEVs are for China and California and everywhere else is better off with PHEVs with good EV range.


CA climate and population density is an ideal use case for battery-only EV with minimal range loss. Nonetheless, my take is that PHEV with fossil fuel engine and 50-100 miles of EV range can be quite sensible given the a 75kWh(e.g.) big battery can be split into 5+(e.g.) PHEVs, hence reducing the pressure on supply chains.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

SR22pilot said:


> Just catching up on the thread. Regarding hydrogen, I think it is dead as far as passenger cars. The charging structure is being built out for EV's. Tesla already has a great charging structure in place. Charge times are coming down. You can charge at home (huge). Hydrogen is expensive to make and ship. I do think hydrogen may make sense for ships and potentially airplanes. I also think long haul trucks are a possibility. Cars? NOPE!!!
> 
> On a different note, Did you see the comments from BMW's director of development?
> 
> ...


I take this no BEV demand as a sentence created by the marketing/strategy department. Not sure what's the motivation behind it. But their actions show something else. Their i3 sales are increasing. They are investing heavily in battery chemistry, they are developing new EVs, going to be released soon. They also electrified an ICE 5 series and reached 0-60mph in 2.8 second with it. 
At the same time they keep H2 on the shelves as well, going to release a H2 version of the X5 and X7 in 2021.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

3 series killer?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> They also electrified an ICE 5 series and reached 0-60mph in 2.8 second with it.


Lucifer is impressive.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

namelessman said:


> Lucifer is impressive.


The 5 competitor, model S p100d does it in 2.5 seconds...ludicrous

https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/news/a30536/tesla-model-s-p100d-quickest-not-fastest/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

FCBayernFTW said:


> The 5 competitor, model S p100d does it in 2.5 seconds...ludicrous


2.5s without the rollout, so that's 2.7s in total.

And BMW reached this number with an ICE built chassis and with less than half of the battery size (which limits the max power).


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Can we agree that they are two different cars and they are both quite impressive?

I don't get it. People are so triggered by Tesla. DONT GET ONE IF YOU DONT LIKE THEM! 

I think the 1 series is an entry level "hey I can afford a 'beemer' too" car, especially the M2. But I'm not running around  ing all over it.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste said:


> I take this no BEV demand as a sentence created by the marketing/strategy department. Not sure what's the motivation behind it. But their actions show something else. Their i3 sales are increasing. They are investing heavily in battery chemistry, they are developing new EVs, going to be released soon. They also electrified an ICE 5 series and reached 0-60mph in 2.8 second with it.
> At the same time they keep H2 on the shelves as well, going to release a H2 version of the X5 and X7 in 2021.


Hopefully you are correct. I found the comments disturbing. I just got the latest copy of Motor Trend. I want to see BMW react.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste said:


> 2.5s without the rollout, so that's 2.7s in total.
> 
> And BMW reached this number with an ICE built chassis and with less than half of the battery size (which limits the max power).


I'm confused. I thought the rollout number was usually lower. Don't the Europeans gripe that our car magazine use a rollout that lowers the 0 to 60?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayernFTW said:


> The 5 competitor, model S p100d does it in 2.5 seconds...ludicrous


The electrified 5 seems to be a modified G30 which is ICE.

It is of interest to me how a chassis can be designed to take ICE/hybrid/battery-only/hydrogen. This G20 chassis can take ICE, hybrid, and battery-only(and Clarity can accommodate hybrid, battery-only , and hydrogen).

Maybe Tesla can consider adding ICE PHEV and/or event hydrogen?


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Can we agree that they are two different cars and they are both quite impressive?
> 
> I don't get it. People are so triggered by Tesla. DONT GET ONE IF YOU DONT LIKE THEM!
> 
> I think the 1 series is an entry level "hey I can afford a 'beemer' too" car, especially the M2. But I'm not running around  ing all over it.


I have a 1'er (that is only earning its keep right now as being my current track car) and a Tesla. I get to trigger both crowds. :angel:


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Obviously Tesla home charging was preferred even for Roadster owners back in 2008-ish, but it probably needed more than 5 minutes for full charge.
> 
> Since "every night" is brought up, one Model 3 owner at work pointed out that his daily plug/unplug takes 30 seconds, or 3.5 minutes per week. His annual mileage is around 10000 miles, so he usually filled up his previous gasoline car every 2 weeks in 5 minutes for 400+ miles or range.
> 
> So he now "complains" he spends 40% more time to charge EV than fill up gasoline!


:rofl:

I'm convince your "Tesla colleagues" are imaginary. Once you count routing to the gas station, waiting for a free stall, the credit card auth or giving cash at the cashier, the actual fill, unplug, gas cap, pulling around all the station traffic and back on your route you're at 10-15 minutes minimum.

Let's not count the times where you're in a rush to get somewhere but inconveniently left the house with with a near empty tank. Never happens with an at home charged EV.

I plug and unplug on the way in and out of the house. Doesn't take me 30s more like 5 seconds.

As this thread continues I'm still undecided on which one is Larry and which one is Moe.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Once you count routing to the gas station, waiting for a free stall, the credit card auth or giving cash at the cashier, the actual fill, unplug, gas cap, pulling around all the station traffic and back on your route you're at 10-15 minutes minimum.


10-15 mins per fill up?!? My fill up is usually 12 gallons(full tank is 16), and routinely takes less than 5 [email protected] Costco's with 24 pumps(no wait at the right time), as part of a routine Costco trip anyway.

My allegedly "imaginary" friend's 30 seconds for plug and unplug can be on the high side, just like your allegedly "imaginary" 10-15 mins per fill up.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Let's not count the times where you're in a rush to get somewhere but inconveniently left the house with with a near empty tank.


Empty battery or empty gas tank or empty hydrogen tank can happen, and out of the 3, battery is slowest to replenish, right?

Just take note that EV owners adapt a new routine to sidestep the slow charging at home, the same is true of ICE/hydrogen adapting to routes/locations/time-of-day to refuel.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> As this thread continues I'm still undecided on which one is Larry and which one is Moe.


Same thoughts here.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

SR22pilot said:


> I'm confused. I thought the rollout number was usually lower. Don't the Europeans gripe that our car magazine use a rollout that lowers the 0 to 60?


This has been used in many different ways. The first foot is called rollout distance, so when I say without rollout, I mean the 5-60mph acceleration. But I see people stating 5-60 times as "rollout time"

However I was wrong. The current P100D's 2.4sec time is a real 0-60 time.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

acoste said:


> This has been used in many different ways. The first foot is called rollout distance, so when I say without rollout, I mean the 5-60mph acceleration. But I see people stating 5-60 times as "rollout time"
> 
> However I was wrong. The current P100D's 2.4sec time is a real 0-60 time.


One of many discussions of rollout. Rollout allows the car to move approximately a foot before timing starts and results in a lower time. Thus rollout numbers are lower than without rollout. https://youtu.be/TtLvv8399pg


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Empty battery or empty gas tank or empty hydrogen tank can happen, and out of the 3, battery is slowest to replenish, right?
> 
> Just take note that EV owners adapt a new routine to sidestep the slow charging at home, the same is true of ICE/hydrogen adapting to routes/locations/time-of-day to refuel.


Every EV owner I know automatically plugs in when they get home at night and unplugs in the morning. You can equate it to plugging in a cell phone at night before bed.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Your friend is slow. I figure about 5 seconds to plug in and 5 seconds to unplug. 10 seconds total and not every night.


So my "imaginary" friend said his EV is parked at driveway. So for him it is 5 seconds to fetch connector from garage, 5 seconds to return, and 5 seconds to plug n, for 15 seconds total.

It looks similar to *this guy starting next to charger at [email protected]:33, and hands [email protected]:46, or 13 seconds.*

From this video the guy, *while facing the charging port with connector in hand, takes 5 seconds to plug in* just like you said.

10-15 seconds per plug and 10-15 seconds unplug(including time to/from charger with connector in hand) sound quite reasonable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSMG9XlpsbY


----------



## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Who has the means to own a Tesla and not have a garage? 

Lol #priorities


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is an informative review of Nexo, which has more cargo space, legroom, and longer range than Clarity and Mirai and Model 3.

The reviewer is also correct that in Bay Area the hydrogen refill network is good enough for many to consider this as replacement for ICE and BEV alike.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bl-TAxzVw_0


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> So my "imaginary" friend said his EV is parked at driveway. So for him it is 5 seconds to fetch connector from garage, 5 seconds to return, and 5 seconds to plug n, for 15 seconds total.
> 
> It looks similar to *this guy starting next to charger at [email protected]:33, and hands [email protected]:46, or 13 seconds.*
> 
> ...


It's hard to understand why we are having this subthread. 5 seconds, 15 seconds, it's not important.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Michael Schott said:


> It's hard to understand why we are having this subthread. 5 seconds, 15 seconds, it's not important.


I agree. I never took a stopwatch to the process.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> It's hard to understand why we are having this subthread. 5 seconds, 15 seconds, it's not important.


Well the guy is considering a second BEV so the daily 5-15 seconds per plug/unplug, or 10-30 seconds total (and a possible 2nd charger?) starts to add up.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Well the guy is considering a second BEV so the daily 5-15 seconds per plug/unplug, or 10-30 seconds total (and a possible 2nd charger?) starts to add up.


If plugging in became a pain I could probably limit it to once a week and have plenty of range left. My phone is more annoying in this area than my car.


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## FaRKle! (Jun 18, 2016)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Who has the means to own a Tesla and not have a garage?
> 
> Lol #priorities


I know plenty in the Bay Area... One works at Google and is still living at home with his parents.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

FaRKle! said:


> and is still living at home with his parents.


.
.
. Propa gangsta right there!


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> Well the guy is considering a second BEV so the daily 5-15 seconds per plug/unplug, or 10-30 seconds total (and a possible 2nd charger?) starts to add up.


Sorry, I don't consider that to be an issue at all. We are talking about seconds/day. If someone's schedule is that tight there are bigger issues in their life.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> If plugging in became a pain I could probably limit it to once a week and have plenty of range left. My phone is more annoying in this area than my car.


Yes dependent on individual usage, some can live with charging less frequently than daily. But most EV owners among my contacts do charge daily to top off regardless of daily mileage.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> Sorry, I don't consider that to be an issue at all. We are talking about seconds/day. If someone's schedule is that tight there are bigger issues in their life.


The point really is that BEV owners adapt to new routines, e.g. daily plug/unplug, hauling multiple connectors for some, [email protected] and playing games from Tesla OTAs. All that "refueling" efforts resemble refueling efforts by ICE owners.

And interestingly new services also pop up for ICE owners for mobile fuel delivery(mainly gasoline), to make use of idle time at company parking lots just like plugged in BEVs at work. The time to order the service is around 30 seconds, and 1 second to pop the fuel door before locking the car.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Once you count routing to the gas station, waiting for a free stall, the credit card auth or giving cash at the cashier, the actual fill, unplug, gas cap, pulling around all the station traffic and back on your route you're at 10-15 minutes minimum.


Your company has no fuel delivery service? Hmm ....


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

This is a pretty funny story ...

"as a result of the ring he made, Baller claims he was able to land a meeting with the Tesla CEO, slated for April 9, at Tesla's headquarters. But after the incident with his Model X, he said, he received an email from Musk's executive assistant, who said Musk would no longer be available to meet"

https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/09/ben-baller-tesla-model-x


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> This is a pretty funny story ...
> 
> "as a result of the ring he made, Baller claims he was able to land a meeting with the Tesla CEO, slated for April 9, at Tesla's headquarters. But after the incident with his Model X, he said, he received an email from Musk's executive assistant, who said Musk would no longer be available to meet"
> 
> https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/09/ben-baller-tesla-model-x


It is interesting that this Model X owner picks a Chrysler Pacifica as a replacement.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The electrified 5 seems to be a modified G30 which is ICE.
> 
> It is of interest to me how a chassis can be designed to take ICE/hybrid/battery-only/hydrogen. This G20 chassis can take ICE, hybrid, and battery-only(and Clarity can accommodate hybrid, battery-only , and hydrogen).
> 
> Maybe Tesla can consider adding ICE PHEV and/or event hydrogen?


Terrible idea. As others have pointed out, the advantage of going with a BEV is to reduce complexity. Building a vehicle with multiple fuel sources is only increasing complexity, points of failure and long term maintenance costs.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> It is interesting that this Model X owner picks a Chrysler Pacifica as a replacement.


I could have afforded a Model X but instead bought a new Honda Pilot.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I could have afforded a Model X but instead bought a new Honda Pilot.


What is your thought process to pick a ICE instead of a 2nd BEV?


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> What is your thought process to pick a ICE instead of a 2nd BEV?


1. It's not my daily driver. Our Au Pairs drive these cars as much as we do and I'm not putting a 21 year old from Europe in a nicer daily driver than I have. 
2. It will be occasionally used on family trips where charging is available but a little less convenient. 
3. The Pilot is less than 1/2 the cost.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> 1. It's not my daily driver. Our Au Pairs drive these cars as much as we do and I'm not putting a 21 year old from Europe in a nicer daily driver than I have.
> 2. It will be occasionally used on family trips where charging is available but a little less convenient.
> 3. The Pilot is less than 1/2 the cost.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


So it sounds like:
1. prestige
2. range (and charge time) during family road trips
3. cost

What will convince u to take on 2nd/3rd Tesla or other BEVs in your garage?


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

I think using hydrogen fuel cells in cars is a poor idea. 

- Hydrogen is difficult and expensive to produce. 
- Transporting, storing, and dispensing hydrogen is an inherently difficult and dangerous task, much more so than doing the same with gasoline, let alone electricity. 
- Explosive hydrogen gas kept in a high pressure tank that could fail in a catastrophic manner in the event of an accident or flaw in the tank are also issues that I'm not comfortable with. 
- The overall energy efficiency of a fuel cell car is lower than a BEV.

P.S. The discussion over the relative convenience of putting gas in an ICE car versus charging a BEV at home is silly. There's really no comparison, and the ICE car loses. It's the single biggest plus that I didn't think of before I bought my Tesla.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> P.S. The discussion over the relative convenience of putting gas in an ICE car versus charging a BEV at home is silly. There's really no comparison, and the ICE car loses. It's the single biggest plus that I didn't think of before I bought my Tesla.


The apparent convenience of BEVs appear to be sure win until "bring gas station to u" service pops up, esp. for some friends considering a 2nd/3rd BEV.

BTW today a 8-gallon fillup at Costco took less than 3.5 minutes, including 1.5 minutes to drive up to the pump(waited for a minute for next pump at 1pm), and less than 1 minute 50 seconds to unfasten seat belt to refasten seat belt. That 8 gallons will be good for 200-250 miles!


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The apparent convenience of BEVs appear to be sure win until "bring gas station to u" service pops up, esp. for some friends considering a 2nd/3rd BEV.
> 
> BTW today a 8-gallon fillup at Costco took less than 3.5 minutes, including 1.5 minutes to drive up to the pump(waited for a minute for next pump at 1pm), and less than 1 minute 50 seconds to unfasten seat belt to refasten seat belt. That 8 gallons will be good for 200-250 miles!


Sure, nobody waits in line at filling stations, especially popular ones like Costco which sells premium discounted gas.

And sure, most people don't have to actually detour from their normal route to hit a filling station.

"Sure".

I only had to fuel up my 340i about once every three weeks and it was still a PITA compared to charging an electric car.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I think using hydrogen fuel cells in cars is a poor idea.


One ex-colleague now has a 530e PHEV, and a Nexo FCEV in his garage.

His plan was to get a Model 3, but instead leased the Nexo, to replace his RAV4 hybrid.

His comment was that cost, alternative fuel source(amidst planned safety outage), and no change in habits(e.g. drive-to-pump) are his reasons.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Sure, nobody waits in line at filling stations, especially popular ones like Costco which sells premium discounted gas.
> 
> And sure, most people don***8217;t have to actually detour from their normal route to hit a filling station.
> 
> ...


Certain Costco's are zoos dawn to dust and beyond, our local pumps are quite reasonable at the right time.

And "bring-gas-station-to-u" service will warp your mind if you still own your 340i. 30 seconds(or leisurely 1 minute?) to order and 1 second to pop the fuel door. And that's all time spent for 16 gallons and 400-500 miles of range.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The apparent convenience of BEVs appear to be sure win until "bring gas station to u" service pops up, esp. for some friends considering a 2nd/3rd BEV.
> 
> BTW today a 8-gallon fillup at Costco took less than 3.5 minutes, including 1.5 minutes to drive up to the pump(waited for a minute for next pump at 1pm), and less than 1 minute 50 seconds to unfasten seat belt to refasten seat belt. That 8 gallons will be good for 200-250 miles!


 Oh, please, what's the cost of the "bring gas station to u" service. Gas is already triple to quadruple the cost of electricity at home, and I'm sure the service raises that even further.

As for Costco, sometimes the wait is short, sometimes it's long for gas. You can certainly buy gas at many stations without waiting, but how long did it take you to drive to the station? When you're charging at home, there's no "drive" to the station.

Speaking from personal experience, "refueling" a BEV car kicks butt on refueling an ICE car.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> I think using hydrogen fuel cells in cars is a poor idea.
> 
> - Hydrogen is difficult and expensive to produce.
> - Transporting, storing, and dispensing hydrogen is an inherently difficult and dangerous task, much more so than doing the same with gasoline, let alone electricity.
> ...


The reason for the development of fuel cell cars is not about efficiency or more safety. It is for zero emission, high energy density and theoretically unlimited supply. Battery availability is very limited when comparing it to the number of vehicles on road, nor does it cover the needed renewable energy storage, and their energy density isn't high either.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> One ex-colleague now has a 530e PHEV, and a Nexo FCEV in his garage.
> 
> His plan was to get a Model 3, but instead leased the Nexo, to replace his RAV4 hybrid.
> 
> His comment was that cost, alternative fuel source(amidst planned safety outage), and no change in habits(e.g. drive-to-pump) are his reasons.


 I can understand someone leasing the Nexo, at least in California, the only state it's available in. All that Hyundai had to do was massively subsidize the lease, to make it similar in cost to an econobox, and give the fuel away for free. If anyone actually had to pay MSRP ($58,300 base) for one, and pay for the fuel, roughly double the price of gas per mile, you'd have to be a moron to buy one.

And what do you get for your money? A small SUV with tepid performance and mediocre handling. It has innocuous styling at best, ranging to rather ugly depending on the viewer. As for refueling, that can't be done at home, there are less than 100 hydrogen fueling stations in all of California, and a literal handful in the rest of the country.

Also, how long will the fuel cell last, and what will the cost of replacement be on it?

And finally, you still have all the negatives of hydrogen fuel that I pointed out a couple of posts ago.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> The reason for the development of fuel cell cars is not about efficiency or more safety. It is for zero emission, high energy density and theoretically unlimited supply. Battery availability is very limited when comparing it to the number of vehicles on road, nor does it cover the needed renewable energy storage, and their energy density isn't high either.


 Producing hydrogen is NOT a zero emission process; it's actually very energy intensive. My guess is that the emissions as a result of hydrogen production are substantially higher than the emissions generated by either gas or electricity production.

Tesla has proven that BEV vehicles can be competitive with ICE vehicles, fuel cell vehicles are just *heavily *subsidized technology demonstrators at this point. With battery technology continuing to develop, it seems very unlikely that fuel cell vehicles will ever reach parity with BEVs.

P.S. I think it's interesting that you didn't actually respond to any of the criticisms of hydrogen fueled fuel cell vehicles that I raised.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

One more comment about the Nexo. I just took a look at the website for it here, and it shows up to 3 years / $13,000 of complimentary fuel. Even if you're a moderately heavy driver and put 20,000 miles a year on your car, that is still roughly double what an ICE car that gets 30MPG would cost in fuel.

Apparently, there's only three Hyundai dealerships in the nation where you can buy the Nexo. :rofl:


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Producing hydrogen is NOT a zero emission process. My guess is that the emissions as a result of hydrogen production are substantially higher than the emissions generated by either gas or electricity production.
> 
> Tesla has proven that BEV vehicles can be competitive with ICE vehicles, fuel cell vehicles are just *heavily *subsidized technology demonstrators at this point. With battery technology continuing to develop, it seems very unlikely that fuel cell vehicles will ever reach parity with BEVs.


I didn't say producing H2 is zero emission. The vehicle is zero emission. There are however processes that produce H2 with no emissions.

Your guess about H2 production having more emissions than electricity is way off, though. The cheapest H2 source is gas and this steam forming has better efficiency than electricity generation, ergo less emissions.



GregD said:


> P.S. I think it's interesting that you didn't actually respond to any of the criticisms of hydrogen fueled fuel cell vehicles that I raised.


Nothing interesting there. I just got bored of explaining things to people who don't care about learning, but have a opinions.

Price is not a problem once the parts are mass produced and the same applies for fueling stations.

I suggest you watch these videos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgLTUbWyEa0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVeagFmmwA0

watch the rear end collision from below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wwZNsSJZqg


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Oh, please, what's the cost of the "bring gas station to u" service. Gas is already triple to quadruple the cost of electricity at home, and I'm sure the service raises that even further.


The cost of fuel delivery service is surprisingly comparable with non-Costco top tier, so such service does have its legend of fans.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> As for Costco, sometimes the wait is short, sometimes it's long for gas. You can certainly buy gas at many stations without waiting, but how long did it take you to drive to the station? When you're charging at home, there's no "drive" to the station.
> 
> Speaking from personal experience, "refueling" a BEV car kicks butt on refueling an ICE car.


Well my work location has 3 Costco's totaling 68 pumps within 6-mile radius. These Costco are busy, but a good routine at the right time usually helps.

There are also top-tiers dotting the landscape. E.g. there are 4 top-tiers within 2 miles from my location along daily routes.

"As far as No drive to station", many BEV owners do not charge at home garage, but charge at supercharger and non-Tesla charge ports and at work, so it is not as truly "no drive" for many.

And the fuel delivery service at prevailing top-tier prices are not bad choices with minimal efforts.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> And what do you get for your money? A small SUV with tepid performance and mediocre handling. It has innocuous styling at best, ranging to rather ugly depending on the viewer. As for refueling, that can't be done at home, there are less than 100 hydrogen fueling stations in all of California, and a literal handful in the rest of the country.


Well your comment of tepid performance and mediocre handling is your personal experience or your extrapolation?

Surprisingly, the closet H2 refuel station to my work is a bit over 2 miles away, and within 10 miles there are 5 total.

There are quite a few FC cars around here, e.g. today within a stretch of 1 mile of local streets there are 3 Mirai's!

The Clarity FC and Nexo do not stand out as much so Mirai's though.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Hey @GregD , do you have solar panels on your home? Would that more than offset the “impact on the environment (and the electric grid)” argument from EV opponents? I just had a Solar Power associate leave our home. We’re in. I’m considering getting the battery as well, which would answer the “what about at night?” Retort.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Hey @GregD , do you have solar panels on your home? Would that more than offset the "impact on the environment (and the electric grid)" argument from EV opponents? I just had a Solar Power associate leave our home. We're in. I'm considering getting the battery as well, which would answer the "what about at night?" Retort.


The only battery worth getting is the Tesla powerwall. You will need multiple units to run a family sized home.

Another option is to only have your critical needs backed by the battery system.

Power failures are so rare where we are that I really can't justify the cost until we are forced into some kind of off peak plan from the local utility.

I have a couple of portable gas generators to run our furnace and fridge in an emergency.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Hey @GregD , do you have solar panels on your home? Would that more than offset the ***8220;impact on the environment (and the electric grid)***8221; argument from EV opponents? I just had a Solar Power associate leave our home. We***8217;re in. I***8217;m considering getting the battery as well, which would answer the ***8220;what about at night?***8221; Retort.


 No solar panels, although I have considered them. I can't put them on the roof of our house though due to it being wood shake, so I'd have to put them on racks on the ground which I don't find very appealing.

The only reasons I would go solar however are to save money over time and independence from power outages; I think the "impact on the environment" argument is nonsense. The payback on solar cells for my house would take about 15 years which is somewhat longer than I want to see. There really isn't a payback argument to be made on backup batteries, but they respond to the power outage aspect.

At this point, I'm in no rush to go solar. I'll wait and see how the technology for both solar cells and batteries progresses over the next few years. It will probably be more appealing to me once the roof is replaced which will likely be in another 5 years or so.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

I probably won’t own the home long enough to realize the payout. What motivates me is mostly paying myself rather than the power company for usage. It could be a selling point as well.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

voip-ninja said:


> The only battery worth getting is the Tesla powerwall. You will need multiple units to run a family sized home.
> 
> Another option is to only have your critical needs backed by the battery system.
> 
> ...


I was thinking for overnight usage...of they won't last all night, but it reduces the time the power company can charge me.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

Please keep the discussion on topic. This is the General Automotive Forum.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Having two BEV's definitely hits my usage but nothing like summer AC use. I am getting solar this year to offset. Fortunately, my utility has true net metering and a flat rate (no time of use). During the day my meter will run backwards and then forwards at night. That makes batteries pretty much pointless since my service is very reliable.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Having two BEV's definitely hits my usage but nothing like summer AC use. I am getting solar this year to offset. Fortunately, my utility has true net metering and a flat rate (no time of use). During the day my meter will run backwards and then forwards at night. That makes batteries pretty much pointless since my service is very reliable.


Trying to factor in solar, battery, and home charging into the BEV decision is tricky. For one navigating local utility's NEM and NSC and net peak and net off-peak and TOU and export limit is non-trivial.

From the painstaking analysis from people at work, my understanding is that net peak(meter running backwards) can be subject to export limit of 5kW, and NSC credits are based on wholesale generation rate, so distribution/transmission cost is still paid by customers, e.g. average credit is $0.03/kWh, versus $0.43//kWh retail rate at peak.

Some do ponder adding batteries since utility plans to move peak hours further into the evening, so peak evening usage is no longer offset by solar after sun down. But at $10k installed per 12.5kWh of PW2(minus 30% CA credit), it is still quite expensive.

E.g. the Nexo guy went through all these numbers, and decided to stay with his 530e(to be swapped with a G20 330e in coming months), and pick up a FCEV lease and be done with it for next few years.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Trying to factor in solar, battery, and home charging into the BEV decision is tricky. For one navigating local utility's NEM and NSC and net peak and net off-peak and TOU and export limit is non-trivial.
> 
> From the painstaking analysis from people at work, my understanding is that net peak(meter running backwards) can be subject to export limit of 5kW, and NSC credits are based on wholesale generation rate, so distribution/transmission cost is still paid by customers, e.g. average credit is $0.03/kWh, versus $0.43//kWh retail rate at peak.
> 
> ...


It depends on your utility. My utility has flat rates. Well, I pay one rate for the first 500 KWH another for the second 500 KWH and a third after that. That last rate varies depending on time of year i.e. it is 6.151 cents except for June through September when it is about 10 cents per KWH. My utility has true net metering so my meter runs backwards and then forwards. If the net is above zero then I pay as priced above. If below zero then I am paid bases on their wholesale cost. Most utilities aren't this nice.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

I would like to see us get back on topic. 

What do the Tesla detractors have to say about Tesla’s record Q2 deliveries and 10K delivery backlog heading into Q3?


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Not a detractor but cash flow and margins will be key. Tesla has been improving manufacturing efficiency. Has it been enough to make the SR+ have reasonable margins. Is the mix enough to make the company cash flow positive. I'm OK with Tesla losing money if they ae cash flow positive.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

SR22pilot said:


> Not a detractor but cash flow and margins will be key. Tesla has been improving manufacturing efficiency. Has it been enough to make the SR+ have reasonable margins. Is the mix enough to make the company cash flow positive. I'm OK with Tesla losing money if they ae cash flow positive.


Depends on what percentage of orders are bare bones SR+ and how bad the margins are.

I want to know how many Model 3 of all trim level sold in North America in Q2 and how many 3 Series bmw sold.

I suspect that even with intro of a brand new model that BMW is getting spanked.

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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> I would like to see us get back on topic.
> 
> What do the Tesla detractors have to say about Tesla***8217;s record Q2 deliveries and 10K delivery backlog heading into Q3?
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Backlog? You mean orders that contain Model Y as well ...

Model 3 US sales numbers for June (last month of quarter) are less than last September or December sales even though there are cheaper models offered. I guess this is why the share price didn't move much.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Backlog? You mean orders that contain Model Y as well ...


I have seen this repeated a number of times, but no one has provided any evidence that this is the case. Are you just spreading rumor or do you have something to back up your statement?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Depends on what percentage of orders are bare bones SR+ and how bad the margins are.
> 
> I want to know how many Model 3 of all trim level sold in North America in Q2 and how many 3 Series bmw sold.
> 
> ...


3/4 series monthly sales are similar to last year's number. 3/4 series numbers peaked in 2014. Then went lower year by year as newer models were introduced in the nearby classes. X2, X3 sales are increasing.

Total BMW sales in US are ~ flat since 2013. In 2019 every month (except January) was higher than the same month 1 year ago.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So BMW CEO is stepping down amidst profit and market share loss. The turn of events brings full circle to this other April 2017 mind-warping thread of mine.

https://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=976282
(kudos to Tim for the pro-edit of post#1 of that thread!)

And this "3-series killer" thread was also started less than 2 years ago in July 2017. It does look like the worries of BMW brass hats from 2 years ago did materialize on schedule!


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> I have seen this repeated a number of times, but no one has provided any evidence that this is the case. Are you just spreading rumor or do you have something to back up your statement?


No evidence, just common sense and experience.

Read what Tesla said: "*Orders generated during the quarter* exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog."


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> 3/4 series monthly sales are similar to last year's number. 3/4 series numbers peaked in 2014. Then went lower year by year as newer models were introduced in the nearby classes. X2, X3 sales are increasing.
> 
> Total BMW sales in US are ~ flat since 2013. In 2019 every month (except January) was higher than the same month 1 year ago.


It will be interesting to see breakdowns of electric Mini, i3, and other hybrid offerings.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> No evidence, just common sense and experience.
> 
> Read what Tesla said: "*Orders generated during the quarter* exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog."


In other words, you have nothing to back it up other than your *assumption *that Tesla is including Model Y sales in the above statement. Whether they are or not, I doubt that many Model Y's were ordered in the 2nd quarter. The Model Y was released in the first quarter, so the early adopters would have ordered immediately; everyone else will wait until much closer to actual product release.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> It will be interesting to see breakdowns of electric Mini, i3, and other hybrid offerings.


i3 US sales are slowing, however total worldwide sales keep increasing since 2013. And YoY growth in all months of 2019


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> In other words, you have nothing to back it up other than your *assumption *that Tesla is including Model Y sales in the above statement. Whether they are or not, I doubt that many Model Y's were ordered in the 2nd quarter. The Model Y was released in the first quarter, so the early adopters would have ordered immediately; everyone else will wait until much closer to actual product release.


I know some who ordered Model Ys in Q2.

But there is also the China's Model 3 order which won't be delivered in Q3 either. Not sure if they meet Q4: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-website-crashes-model-3-pre-orders-gigafactory-3/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Backlog? You mean orders that contain Model Y as well ...
> 
> Model 3 US sales numbers for June (last month of quarter) are less than last September or December sales even though there are cheaper models offered. I guess this is why the share price didn't move much.


The numbers are mid-range of Tesla's own guidance, plus further ramp up beyond Q2 delivery level is needed to catch 2019 targets. Also it is yet unknown how profitable the cheap Model 3 units are.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-hits-delivery-record-worst-160600084.html


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

I do think margins are key. Unscientific data here is that I keep seeing a lot more Model 3's. US demand probably saw a surge when volume deliveries of the 3 first occurred. However, new countries are being opened up. Sustained demand won't be known for awhile. Knowing that will depend on getting all countries where Tesla does business opened up for Model 3 orders and initial demand filled. I expect the China factory to spur demand in China. I also expect it will improve margins.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> 3/4 series monthly sales are similar to last year's number. 3/4 series numbers peaked in 2014. Then went lower year by year as newer models were introduced in the nearby classes. X2, X3 sales are increasing.
> 
> Total BMW sales in US are ~ flat since 2013. In 2019 every month (except January) was higher than the same month 1 year ago.


From the sales data I just looked at (http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/) BMW moved just over 16,000 3/4 series cars in the USA in Q2.

Tesla we know moved around 70,000 Model 3 globally but probably the majority were sold in the US market. Tesla doesn't even really have a differentiated model lineup at this time vs. BMW having something like five different base configurations between the 3 and 4 series variants.

So yes, Model 3 is the 3 series killer, Tesla is spanking BMW in sales even as tax incentives are disappearing.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> I know some who ordered Model Ys in Q2.
> 
> But there is also the China's Model 3 order which won't be delivered in Q3 either. Not sure if they meet Q4: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-website-crashes-model-3-pre-orders-gigafactory-3/


Tesla was specifically providing guidance on vehicle backlog into Q3. I am highly skeptical that Tesla is counting Model Y orders as part of this number, so please provide something to back this absurd statement.

For starters, it's highly unlikely that Tesla have only taken <10,000 Model Y deposits so far and Tesla has no plans to deliver Model Y anytime soon as they haven't even built the production facility for that vehicle.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Tesla was specifically providing guidance on vehicle backlog *into *Q3. I am highly skeptical that Tesla is counting Model Y orders as part of this number, so please provide something to back this absurd statement.
> 
> For starters, it's highly unlikely that Tesla have only taken <10,000 Model Y deposits so far and Tesla has no plans to deliver Model Y anytime soon as they haven't even built the production facility for that vehicle.


If you followed the Model Y order tracker sheet on TMC, you would see how low the orders are compared to the same sheet for Model 3 few years ago. ~ 50 entries. Granted it doesn't have all the orders, but gives a wild guess.

Read again what Tesla said: "Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus *we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog*."

It doesn't say this is for Q3. It just says they are entering into Q3 with higher number of orders compared to a quarter ago.

We may talk about 2 different things. I refer to the order backlog. You talk about some 10k backlog for Q3. Do you have a reference that says these are for Q3 delivery? I can't find the number 10k either.

10k is a low number. and nothing exciting. Let's say they deliver 60k per Q. 60k /90 days = 667 / day

10k / 667 = 15 day order backlog. Which means you order a car now and get it in 2 weeks. That's about right.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> From the sales data I just looked at (http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/) BMW moved just over 16,000 3/4 series cars in the USA in Q2.
> 
> Tesla we know moved around 70,000 Model 3 globally but probably the majority were sold in the US market. Tesla doesn't even really have a differentiated model lineup at this time vs. BMW having something like five different base configurations between the 3 and 4 series variants.
> 
> So yes, Model 3 is the 3 series killer, Tesla is spanking BMW in sales even as tax incentives are disappearing.


comparing BMW US sales to Tesla WW sales? sounds right :dunno:

BMW sold ~400k 3/4 series WW last year. And people are moving away from sedans to suvs, Total BMW sales remained constant over the years. I don't see the Tesla factor here.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> comparing BMW US sales to Tesla WW sales? sounds right :dunno:
> 
> BMW sold ~400k 3/4 series WW last year. And people are moving away from sedans to suvs, Total BMW sales remained constant over the years. I don't see the Tesla factor here.


Only up until we find out what the Tesla Model 3 US market numbers are.

It's highly likely it will have substantially beaten BMW, Mercedes and Audi combined and still be number one luxury sedan in USA even though it's been widely available for months and tax credits have dried up at the Federal level.

But sure, doesn't matter except that for the purposes of this thread title BMW has been beaten bloody by the newcomer.

How many markets is BMW in compared to Tesla, 10x as many? Tesla has room to grow they just need to scale their production and add more platforms.

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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Bmw sales overall are up over 2018. Not down, up. Black 'N white. 

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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> Bmw sales overall are up over 2018. Not down, up. Black 'N white.
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


How are unit sales in the compact sedan segment doing compared to Tesla in the US market?

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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

voip-ninja said:


> How are unit sales in the compact sedan segment doing compared to Tesla in the US market?
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The U.S. auto industry is grappling with consumers moving from sedans to SUVs and crossover utility vehicles. Didn't you notice. The trend shifted 5% JUST from 2018 to '19. X3's, X5's are hot items more than ever....

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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> If you followed the Model Y order tracker sheet on TMC, you would see how low the orders are compared to the same sheet for Model 3 few years ago. ~ 50 entries. Granted it doesn't have all the orders, but gives a wild guess.
> 
> Read again what Tesla said: "Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus *we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog*."
> 
> ...


It's all a matter of context, and from the context of Tesla's statement, my understanding was that they were talking about cars that would be delivered in the next quarter when they referred to the backlog. That said, it is an assumption on my part, so I wouldn't hang my hat on it, but I think there's even less to support your assumption that Tesla was referring to all orders when they said backlog.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Perhaps the Model 3 is the BMW CEO killer. 



> BMW CEO Harald Krüger has resigned his post, citing ***8220;enormous changes, which have brought about more transformation than in the previous 30 years.***8221; He is referring to the rapid rise of Tesla***8217;s compelling electric vehicles, which are crushing BMW***8217;s car offerings in the US market and are now threatening to disrupt sales in key Europe and Chinese markets as well.
> 
> https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/07/tesla-disrupts-bmw-boss-throws-in-the-towel/


The same article also talks about sales over the last 12 months of BMW versus Tesla in the US. *BMW sold a total of 84,467 cars of all types while Tesla sold 184,000 Model 3s alone.* Then add in another 22,000 Model Ss and an unknown number of Model Xs, and Tesla seems to be clobbering BMW.



> Sales of BMW US passenger cars in the 12 months through June 2019 were just 84,467, down 14.5% from 98,752 a year ago. Tesla meanwhile sold around 184,000 Model 3 sedans in the US over the past 12 months, ramping up from just a few thousands over the previous 12 months. Tesla also sold around 22,000 Model S sedans in the US in the 12 months ending June 2019.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Dio///M said:


> The U.S. auto industry is grappling with consumers moving from sedans to SUVs and crossover utility vehicles. Didn't you notice. The trend shifted 5% JUST from 2018 to '19. X3's, X5's are hot items more than ever....
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


It will be interesting to see what impact the Model Y has on X3 and X5 sales when it reaches volume production.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Perhaps the Model 3 is the BMW CEO killer.
> 
> The same article also talks about sales over the last 12 months of BMW versus Tesla in the US. *BMW sold a total of 84,467 cars of all types while Tesla sold 184,000 Model 3s alone.* Then add in another 22,000 Model Ss and an unknown number of Model Xs, and Tesla seems to be clobbering BMW.


Cleantechnica is the worst source of news. Check your numbers. BMW sold 84k PASSENGER cars and an additional 72k light trucks in the US* from JANUARY to JUNE in 2019* YTD!!!

Additionally Kruger left because he was found as a weak leader. News sources, since EV is a popular word, kept saying it's because of EVs. Any article can be sold if it has the Tesla name in it.

You better read this: https://www.autoblog.com/2019/07/08/bmw-future-next-harald-kruger/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> It's all a matter of context, and from the context of Tesla's statement, my understanding was that they were talking about cars that would be delivered in the next quarter when they referred to the backlog. That said, it is an assumption on my part, so I wouldn't hang my hat on it, but I think there's even less to support your assumption that Tesla was referring to all orders when they said backlog.


Possible.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Cleantechnica is the worst source of news. Check your numbers. BMW sold 84k PASSENGER cars and an additional 72k light trucks in the US* from JANUARY to JUNE in 2019* YTD!!!
> 
> Additionally Kruger left because he was found as a weak leader. News sources, since EV is a popular word, kept saying it's because of EVs. Any article can be sold if it has the Tesla name in it.
> 
> You better read this: https://www.autoblog.com/2019/07/08/bmw-future-next-harald-kruger/


 I doubt that Cleantechnia is the worst source of news, but they certainly got the BMW car numbers wrong as you indicated. carsalesbase.com seems to be a more reliable. They show a total of 65,871 BMW 3 and 4 series combined US sales compared to 183,600 Tesla Model 3 sales for July 2018 through June 2019.

What's interesting is to go back to July 2015 to June 2016 and check the BMW 3/4 series before the Model 3 had too much of an impact on the market. The combined BMW 3/4 sales were 125,172, so BMW 3/4 series sales have dropped by nearly half since the Tesla Model 3 has entered the market. Coincidence? I don't think so.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> I doubt that Cleantechnia is the worst source of news, but they certainly got the BMW car numbers wrong as you indicated. carsalesbase.com seems to be a more reliable. They show a total of 65,871 BMW 3 and 4 series combined US sales compared to 183,600 Tesla Model 3 sales for July 2018 through June 2019.
> 
> What's interesting is to go back to July 2015 to June 2016 and check the BMW 3/4 series before the Model 3 had too much of an impact on the market. The combined BMW 3/4 sales were 125,172, so BMW 3/4 series sales have dropped by nearly half since the Tesla Model 3 has entered the market. Coincidence? I don't think so.


Yes, and then check the X1, X2 and X3 sales and you will see the trend matching the US market trend, people moving from sedans to SUVs. Also this is the last year for the F30 model.

Ok. I mean Cleantechnica is very biased towards Tesla.

About Zachary Shahan, Site Director
"Zach has long-term investments in TSLA..."

https://cleantechnica.com/author/zshahan/

I appreciate though that he is open about it.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Yes, and then check the X1, X2 and X3 sales and you will see the trend matching the US market trend, people moving from sedans to SUVs. Also this is the last year for the F30 model.
> 
> Ok. I mean Cleantechnica is very biased towards Tesla.
> 
> ...


 SUVs have definitely been hot in the market the last few years.


GregD said:


> It will be interesting to see what impact the Model Y has on X3 and X5 sales when it reaches volume production.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Yes, and then check the X1, X2 and X3 sales and you will see the trend matching the US market trend, people moving from sedans to SUVs. Also this is the last year for the F30 model.


X3 and X5 do eat into 3-series sales(esp. last year of F30), and the same probably will be true of Model Y versus Model 3 when Y is available.

And X3 and X5 do beat up Model X too.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> X3 and X5 do eat into 3-series sales(esp. last year of F30), and the same probably will be true of Model Y versus Model 3 when Y is available.
> 
> And X3 and X5 do beat up Model X too.


Model X is pretty much a 100K vehicle. It also hasn't really been refreshed since introduction.

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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

€280 for tire alignment... I could be a bit cynical, but that's quite absurd.
https://youtu.be/H6sPc9dFsGw

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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Dio///M said:


> €280 for tire alignment... I could be a bit cynical, but that's quite absurd.
> https://youtu.be/H6sPc9dFsGw
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


It was not 280 Euros it was like $260 USD.

And the price is probably comparable and potentially less than what it would cost if you blew out a couple of 20" rims and tires on a BMW M3 or M4.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

A Model 3 AWD owner at work had struggled with fixing squeaks and rattles since new, and sold recently at a huge loss to get ready for the G20 330e hybrid. He said he was tired to get beaten up by other Tesla fanatics who tried to silence his complaints.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> A Model 3 AWD owner at work had struggled with fixing squeaks and rattles since new, and sold recently at a huge loss to get ready for the G20 330e hybrid. He said he was tired to get beaten up by other Tesla fanatics who tried to silence his complaints.


That sounds ridiculous. Did he join a Tesla club, go to a meeting, complain about his car and get assaulted? That would seem rather unlikely. Or is he talking about voluntarily participating in social media with a bunch of Tesla enthusiasts who didn't like him complaining about his car? If so, I think he has bigger problems than a squeaky or rattly car. :tsk:


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> A Model 3 AWD owner at work had struggled with fixing squeaks and rattles since new, and sold recently at a huge loss to get ready for the G20 330e hybrid. He said he was tired to get beaten up by other Tesla fanatics who tried to silence his complaints.


Well it's sure good that he has your shoulder to cry on during this trying time. Finding a fellow Tesla hater can be really hard in Commiefornia.

You know, I've had a disproportionate amount of problems with my car and it's still the best car I've ever owned or driven. It would be nearly impossible for me to go back to buying a pedestrian gas burner after experiencing the joy of driving a high performance pure electric power train.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Well it's sure good that he has your shoulder to cry on during this trying time. Finding a fellow Tesla hater can be really hard in Commiefornia.
> 
> You know, I've had a disproportionate amount of problems with my car and it's still the best car I've ever owned or driven. It would be nearly impossible for me to go back to buying a pedestrian gas burner after experiencing the joy of driving a high performance pure electric power train.


Being both fellow TSLA owners since early days, this coworker and I had our shares of being labeled Tesla fanatics for 9+ years, it is just ironic that the new breed of Tesla owners start labeling clear-headed folks like us as Tesla haters.


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## jwalz1 (May 31, 2013)

My brother has his Model 3 and fits squarely into the militant Tesla cult that they are the finest things in the history of the world and any criticism should be met with a stay at a re-education camp.

I drove his and it was pretty cool, he has the extended range RWD so it is certainly not near the fastest of them but still really fun. It was quiet, it handled well, the powertrain was a hoot and I liked the car a great deal. The new $55k price on the performance model is tempting but I can't get over the fact the interior just plain sucks at the price point.

I also like mechanical things, exhaust sounds, and bells and whistles in the interior, especially if I am dropping over $50k. 

My complaints were that the build quality was not up to industry standard (my brother has had several issues, the largest was a cracked glass roof two weeks into ownership) and the interior is of decent materials, but makes a GTI look like a luxury car. If they build a nice interior at the price point, I would buy one. Otherwise, the drivetrain is not enough in and of itself to merit a purchase when something like a C43 AMG exists in the same price range. The pampering of that interior over a big screen bolted to the dash just does not even exist in the same universe. 

If you say that in my brother's presence he wants you burned at the stake as a heretic. 

I like my BMW but it has several issues (timing chain guides made by trained monkeys, poor quality interior materials in the class) and if someone brings them up I would say "Fair point." If you criticize a Tesla in front of a cult member, watch out for the fireworks. They take it PERSONALLY.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

jwalz1 said:


> My brother has his Model 3 and fits squarely into the militant Tesla cult that they are the finest things in the history of the world and any criticism should be met with a stay at a re-education camp.
> 
> I drove his and it was pretty cool, he has the extended range RWD so it is certainly not near the fastest of them but still really fun. It was quiet, it handled well, the powertrain was a hoot and I liked the car a great deal. The new $55k price on the performance model is tempting but I can't get over the fact the interior just plain sucks at the price point.
> 
> ...


Lol. I have criticized my Tesla and Tesla in general a TON including in this thread.

There's an enormous difference between criticism of Tesla and irrational hatred of Tesla which tons of people have.

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## jwalz1 (May 31, 2013)

voip-ninja said:


> Lol. I have criticized my Tesla and Tesla in general a TON including in this thread.
> 
> There***8217;s an enormous difference between criticism of Tesla and irrational hatred of Tesla which tons of people have.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Oh I am not saying all Tesla owners are members of the cult, far from that. Only suggesting those cult members exist and are very serious about Tesla conquering the world as we know it. My brother belongs to the cult.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> Lol. I have criticized my Tesla and Tesla in general a TON including in this thread.
> 
> There***8217;s an enormous difference between criticism of Tesla and irrational hatred of Tesla which tons of people have.





jwalz1 said:


> Oh I am not saying all Tesla owners are members of the cult, far from that. Only suggesting those cult members exist and are very serious about Tesla conquering the world as we know it. My brother belongs to the cult.


Both true statements.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

*duplicate* Tapatalk sucks.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

jwalz1 said:


> Oh I am not saying all Tesla owners are members of the cult, far from that. Only suggesting those cult members exist and are very serious about Tesla conquering the world as we know it. My brother belongs to the cult.


I've encountered far fewer die hard Tesla cultists than those who irrationally hate Teslas or EVs in general.

Perhaps that ratio is different in different parts of the US.

Namelessman says he owns TSLA stock or did own TSLA stock and he has pretty much bashed them continuously. Recommending a crappy hydrogen fuel cell car that you can't even own (can only lease) is the icing on the cake. He used to say he was upset Tesla wasn't offering the less expensive version of the car but he's had to shift to new arguments now that the $36,500 version is shipping and is more capable than anyone could have hoped for (has full interior, has the nice glass roof, has the full size touchscreen, etc.).

Acoste claims to work in the automotive industry and pretty much makes things up and spreads misinformation on a weekly basis.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

..... ^^and then there's that overfamiliar, savvy euro boob that cavaliers himself around here on occasion!


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Acoste claims to work in the automotive industry and pretty much makes things up and spreads misinformation on a weekly basis.


Please name one.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Please name one.


Oh I can do better than "one".



acoste said:


> Backlog? You mean orders that contain Model Y as well ...


Wrong.



acoste said:


> Maxwell doesn't bring a new chemistry, just a new method which certainly helps. But unless Tesla gets into solid state batteries, it will fall...


Wrong.


> It's anticipated that Tesla is mostly interested in the dry electrode technology for batteries, which could enable it to develop its own battery cells that are highly durable and with high energy density (300 Wh/kg with hope for growth towards 500 Wh/kg in the future).


That's called "new battery chemistry". :rofl::rofl::rofl:



acoste said:


> Personally, I don't understand why anyone would want a Tesla as it has the worst reliability, worst service department and the company uses the owners as guinea pigs and a checking account in the self driving system development.


Lies and or slander.

Yeah, I think you don't want to keep beating this drum acoste, wipe the egg off of your face first.

:rofl::rofl::rofl:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Namelessman says he owns TSLA stock or did own TSLA stock and he has pretty much bashed them continuously. Recommending a crappy hydrogen fuel cell car that you can't even own (can only lease) is the icing on the cake. He used to say he was upset Tesla wasn't offering the less expensive version of the car but he's had to shift to new arguments now that the $36,500 version is shipping and is more capable than anyone could have hoped for (has full interior, has the nice glass roof, has the full size touchscreen, etc.).


My views of Tesla and Model 3 are quite consistent esp. from a TSLA owner perspective, e.g. when some Tesla owners got too exuberant, then it was time to re-adjust. It turned out the assessments were spot-on and lots of money and time were saved for those clear headed folks(e.g. savings from price drops, time saved without dealing with quality issues, etc, et).

Hydrogen offerings being crappy or not are relative, and icing on the cake really is that a Tesla owner like yourself with zero experience with hydrogen(by your own admission) starts bashing hydrogen.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> My views of Tesla and Model 3 are quite consistent esp. from a TSLA owner perspective, e.g. when some Tesla owners got too exuberant, then it was time to re-adjust. It turned out the assessments were spot-on and lots of money and time were saved for those clear headed folks(e.g. savings from price drops, time saved without dealing with quality issues, etc, et).
> 
> Hydrogen offerings being crappy or not are relative, and icing on the cake really is that a Tesla owner like yourself with zero experience with hydrogen(by your own admission) starts bashing hydrogen.


Yes you have been very wise indeed. You are still driving a crappy nearly 8 year old F30 and I'm still driving a new Tesla. My overpaying and quality issues with my car don't change the reality I wouldn't change places.

Hydrogen and you fawning at it after your non stop criticism of Tesla (not EVs in general since you've marveled at gems like the Nissan Leaf) is solid gold. Hydrogen has problems compared to EV like my grandmother has memory problems compared to me.

Hydrogen... what a failed laugh of a technology for consumers now that you can buy battery cars with 300 mile range that charge in 20 minutes.

I don't have to drive a car that is powered by monkey farts to know that it sucks either.

I'll put it this way, Colorado (where I live) is extremely environmental and alternative fuel friendly and Hydrogen hasn't even made a DENT here.

Here's the Colorado .gov page list of "hydrogen coalition accomplishments" that hasn't been updated since 2014;



> Kroger's 120 fuel cell-powered forklifts at a Stapleton warehouse.
> CableLabs' Louisville headquarters uses an 8-kw fuel cell backup system.
> Colorado Springs Federal Aviation Administration uses a fuel cell backup system to power a remote transmitter/receiver.
> Multi-wellhead sites in western Colorado are use fuel cells to power chemical injection pumps.


Wow!

Compare that with the fact that there are over 5,000 more pure EVs on Colorado roads than were on the road 12 months ago and it becomes apparent that hydrogen fuel cells are dead on arrival until and unless they have some major tech breakthrough.

Not to mention that you have to manufacture the Hydrogen, you have to transport the Hydrogen, Hydrogen is flammable, Hydrogen is hard to detect when it is burning, Hydrogen flames are hard to know if you are near since they cause UV burns where gasoline flames would cause physical burns, etc.

Hydrogen makes no sense to me outside of possible use for applications like long haul trucking or military applications.... but yes you were right about Tesla slashing prices (even though they apparently have no demand problem) so maybe you're right about Hydrogen, get back to this thread in a few years and let's see.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

And least like cars to be stolen are:

#3 Tesla Model X
#2 Tesla Model S

and
wait for it

.
.
.
#1 BMW 3 Series 4 door


However, the 4 wheel drive BMW 3 series is more likely to be stolen. I'm surprised there is a difference. Still the 3 series is low. Most likely to be stolen is Dodge Charger HEMI.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> 2nd place was the Genesis G70 which has been receiving rave reviews form a number of magazines.


The Genesis brand(an aggressive marque brand from Hyundai, definitely no Kia) has been building up for quite a long while and is known to provide great bang for the buck compared to German brands like Audi/MB/BMW, so the result is expected.

The Tesla AWD comparison versus the other 2 RWDs also is expected to be sensational, but comparing to Tesla RWD probably will highlight the fact that the cheapest Model 3's is the sweet spot of the Model 3 lineup, and that does not fit the author's narrative.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

........ ^^ Did you hear about the Kia EV that just blew up... Definitely "more bang per buck" 

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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Dio///M said:


> ........ ^^ Did you hear about the Kia EV that just blew up... Definitely "more bang per buck"
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


What caused the blow up?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

SR22pilot said:


> 2nd place was the Genesis G70 which has been receiving rave reviews form a number of magazines.


Hyundai/Kia is one company. Their design teams are led by Germans. Ex BMW M / Mercedes / Lamborghini guys.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> It is pretty typical for market disrupters to operate financially underwater for years, Amazon was something like 14 years before they turned a profit whereas Tesla have been in business for about 16 years and have already had profitable quarters.


There is a big difference in AMZN's steady operating cash flow growth over the last 17 yeas compared to TSLA's who barely had any cash flow positive quarters, let alone growth for the same period.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Really not saying much, the latest BMW was placed last in a recent Motortrend comparison, placing behind not only the Tesla but also the Kia in the segment.
> 
> BMW losing to a Kia, how the mighty have fallen.
> 
> ...


Comparing a 4 cyl automatic with an electric car? Yeah, good enough article for the Tesla fan boys to chew on.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Comparing a 4 cyl automatic with an electric car? Yeah, good enough article for the Tesla fan boys to chew on.


The 330i typically getting chosen for price comparison purposes. A well equipped 340i is 60K and it doesn't change the outcome in bmws favor.

My dual motor model 3 smokes my old 340xi in acceleration and in handling. Have to pony up for an M3 for there to be a contest.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

operating cash flow growth comparison


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

acoste said:


> What caused the blow up?


Actually I just saw the headline in my newsfeed but as a former RPG trainee during my army service, the thing was literally blown up like it was hit by a grenade launcher...

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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The 330i typically getting chosen for price comparison purposes. A well equipped 340i is 60K and it doesn't change the outcome in bmws favor.


A MSRP $50k 2019 G20 330i probably can go $40k to $42k. My config of choice probably will be base G20 330i + leather for the amenities that are useful to me, so MSRP $43k going for around $37k, which is not bad for 5.4 seconds 0-60 and 500+ miles of range! Plus 1-minute fill-up for on-site fuel delivery, what's not to like?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> There is a big difference in AMZN's steady operating cash flow growth over the last 17 yeas compared to TSLA's who barely had any cash flow positive quarters, let alone growth for the same period.


As long as investors and bond holders do not care then that is OK, although it does look like exuberance and patience are tapering.

Maybe someone can plot the profit/loss per car sold by Tesla, e.g. 2019 Q2 was 95k delivery for $400m+ loss, so that is more than $4k loss per car. That graph of profit/loss per car over time can be quite informative. For one, TSLA owners and bond holders keep subsidizing Tesla owners.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> A MSRP $50k 2019 G20 330i probably can go $40k to $42k. My config of choice probably will be base G20 330i + leather for the amenities that are useful to me, so MSRP $43k going for around $37k, which is not bad for 5.4 seconds 0-60 and 500+ miles of range! Plus 1-minute fill-up for on-site fuel delivery, what's not to like?


A Model 3 SR+ lists for $38,990 minus $1,875 for the tax credit and you have $37,115, basically the same as a heavily discounted G20 330i. It does 0-60 in 5.3 seconds, and your "fuel" costs will likely be less than a quarter of the BMW's home delivered gas. Add in Autopilot and all of the driving safety, convenience, comfort, and media features that would add somewhere around $10k to the BMW, and what's not to like?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> A Model 3 SR+ lists for $38,990 minus $1,875 for the tax credit and you have $37,115, basically the same as a heavily discounted G20 330i. It does 0-60 in 5.3 seconds, and your "fuel" costs will likely be less than a quarter of the BMW's home delivered gas. Add in Autopilot and all of the driving safety, convenience, comfort, and media features that would add somewhere around $10k to the BMW, and what's not to like?


The numbers are not that far off.

E.g. $38990 SR+ is _without destination _and _no leather_, or knock down to $37k with fed credit.

G20 330i sport + standard fake leather + $3300 Driving Assist + Driving Assist Pro + Live Cockpit with Nav (no Park Assist) is MSRP $44k without destination, or knock down to $37k-$38k with incentives.

And this aligns with my assertion that the market is efficient. 

BTW Driving Assist + Driving Assist Pro have:
Lane depart
Front collision warning 
Traffic jam assist
Steering and lane control
Active cruise control(emergency stop assist)
Apple Carplay 1-year(does Tesla have this?)


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

namelessman said:


> Maybe someone can plot the profit/loss per car sold by Tesla, e.g. 2019 Q2 was 95k delivery for $400m+ loss, so that is more than $4k loss per car. That graph of profit/loss per car over time can be quite informative. For one, TSLA owners and bond holders keep subsidizing Tesla owners.


Someone quoted me these numbers about Tesla loss/profit per car:

2017 full year 120k deliveries, $2B loss, or $16.7k loss per car
2018 full year 350k deliveries, $1B loss, or $2.86k loss per car
2019 1st half 160k deliveries, $1.1B loss, or $6.88k loss per car

Are these numbers more or less in the right ballpark?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is a good video about BMW Driving Assist Pro, this is not much different than Tesla AP, correct?

$3000 MSRP(or $2400 if 20% off MSRP) on this Driving Assist Pro(which includes first tier Driving Assist too) plus Nav and Apple Carplay and Live Cockpit is not bad, that is similarly priced as Honda sensing + Nav a few years back(now those are embedded as standard on various Honda trims).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASXAQSOBjnw


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> This is a good video about BMW Driving Assist Pro, this is not much different than Tesla AP, correct?
> 
> $3000 MSRP(or $2400 if 20% off MSRP) on this Driving Assist Pro(which includes first tier Driving Assist too) plus Nav and Apple Carplay and Live Cockpit is not bad, that is similarly priced as Honda sensing + Nav a few years back(now those are embedded as standard on various Honda trims).
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASXAQSOBjnw


 According to independent sources, rather than a BMW sales manager like the guy in your video, the Tesla autopilot works much better in the real world than the BMW system.

Also, to be as comparable as possible, you have to add remote engine start for $300, heated front seats for $500, and Harmon Kardon sound system for $875 to try and match up with the Tesla. Now the BMW is going to cost over $4k more than the Tesla, and you'll still be lacking a number of features that the Tesla has like Dog mode, Sentry mode. internet access to your vehicle, over the air updates, and a number of others. I think those added features more than counter the few the BMW has that the Tesla doesn't. As for the NAV, the Tesla system is superior to any of the BMW systems.

The BMW Apple Car Play does me no good since I have an Android phone. Unfortunately, neither BMW or Tesla have Android Auto, although I really haven't felt a need for it in my Model 3. The synthetic leather in the Tesla is actually very nice. I find it to be more comfortable than BMW's leather and dramatically nicer than BMW's leatherette. I also expect that it will hold up better than leather as well.

Finally, I think the BMW's ride/handling compromise doesn't work as well as the Tesla's and the instant torque of the Tesla makes it much more responsive to the accelerator pedal. I also like the steering feel and sight lines out of the Tesla much better. As the video below says, the Tesla is just much more fun to drive.

https://youtu.be/xpFe8k1vjcg


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> According to independent sources, rather than a BMW sales manager like the guy in your video, the Tesla autopilot works much better in the real world than the BMW system.


The irony is that there seems to be nil reports of BMW driving assist pro with near misses or actual hits, but there are quite a few reports of Tesla AP causing issues, ranging from hitting freeway median(scratching whole length of car), to hitting freeway median(driver got killed).

My thought is that the "works much better" of Tesla autopilot, but not "work perfect", leads to overconfidence and over-reliance of Tesla drivers.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Another anecdote, today while at a dead stop(single lane both directions, a container truck took a wide turn and blocked all traffic), our lunch group was nearly taken out by a Model X charging at my rear bumper at 30mph. 

With a second to spare, and probably 10 feet, the Model X swiveled to the bike lane to the right, and stopped ahead in 2 car lengths, missing the container truck by one car length. There were 2 cars ahead of us stopped for the wide turning truck. That stretch has a slight curve, but not blind curve, and clear visibility at sunny midday.

In that split second, from the rear view mirror, the wife at passenger seat threw hands on dashboard, screaming STOP, while the husband with mouth wide open jumped up at driver seat and yanked the steering wheel. 

The truck moved out of the way in a moment for us to proceed. We looked to the right while passing the Model X, and the wife had her hands up screaming at the husband, who seemed to be desperately punching keys on big screen.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Another anecdote, today while at a dead stop(single lane both directions, a container truck took a wide turn and blocked all traffic), our lunch group was nearly taken out by a Model X charging at my rear bumper at 30mph.
> 
> With a second to spare, and probably 10 feet, the Model X swiveled to the bike lane to the right, and stopped ahead in 2 car lengths, missing the container truck by one car length. There were 2 cars ahead of us stopped for the wide turning truck. That stretch has a slight curve, but not blind curve, and clear visibility at sunny midday.
> 
> ...


It's fascinating to me that an incident as extreme as this where your 'lunch group was almost taken out by a charging Model-X' 'happened' yesterday, but you made five posts after the lunch time 'incident' about various BMW AP things and it's only conveniently mentioned late at night after Greg gave his opinion about where BMW AP stands compared to Tesla.

You'd think an incident as extreme as this would have you immediately mention it in one of your five posts in the afternoon after the adrenaline inducing near-death 'almost got taken out by Tesla AP' scenario.



namelessman said:


> Her hands up screaming at the husband, who seemed to be desperately punching keys on big screen.


There is nothing to 'desperately punch' on the screen if an incident like this really occurred. All real-time AP controls (enable/disable, etc) are done via stalk. It's as if someone who's never spent time in a Tesla wanted to write a made up script of what they think would happen in a scenario like this. Sort of like those cheesy anti-smoking PSAs where the adults script how they think teens act.

If only your car had a built-in always on four camera dash-cam and had the whole incident recorded.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> With the F30, I think the delay is caused by a combination of turbo lag and the automatic.


The F30 ZF 8AT should be adaptive, e.g. at times the dealer loaners are sluggish. One way to alleviate that is to put in in sport/sport+ and move to M/S mode. Using paddle shifters to walk the gears also seems to reset(my own car has no paddles though, many loaners do).


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The F30 ZF 8AT should be adaptive, e.g. at times the dealer loaners are sluggish. One way to alleviate that is to put in in sport/sport+ and move to M/S mode. Using paddle shifters to walk the gears also seems to reset(my own car has no paddles though, many loaners do).


Pftttt. Hogwash. I drove both of my F30s with a lead foot and they were both periodically sluggish.

Additionally running the car in S all the time ruins the fuel economy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Pftttt. Hogwash. I drove both of my F30s with a lead foot and they were both periodically sluggish.


Mine has no SAT, and instant metal to pedal has lag, but 3/4 pedal down for a split moment with sport + M/S usually works ok. The trick is to understand what the tool can do and utilize it as such.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Mine has no SAT, and instant metal to pedal has lag, but 3/4 pedal down for a split moment with sport + M/S usually works ok. The trick is to understand what the tool can do and utilize it as such.


Or you could drive an electric and never experience lag under any circumstance.

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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Or you could drive an electric and never experience lag under any circumstance.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Check out this guy, lowly F30 N20 320i 180HP with stock suspension, 16-inch wheel, below 10 minutes at Nurburgiing, where is turbo lag? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlGkW3Y0gzA


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Check out this guy, lowly F30 N20 320i 180HP with stock suspension, 16-inch wheel, below 10 minutes at Nurburgiing, where is turbo lag?
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlGkW3Y0gzA


Manual transmission at sea level. Not practical or even possible for many.

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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Check out this guy, lowly F30 N20 320i 180HP with stock suspension, 16-inch wheel, below 10 minutes at Nurburgiing, where is turbo lag?
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlGkW3Y0gzA


Also I believe Tesla model 3 performance recently completed Nurburgring in 9 minutes, in traffic.

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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Check out this guy, lowly F30 N20 320i 180HP with stock suspension, 16-inch wheel, below 10 minutes at Nurburgiing, where is turbo lag?
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlGkW3Y0gzA


A race track is a very different environment from the street. You can anticipate and get on the throttle earlier and shift the gears in such a way as to optimize the vehicle's performance. You usually don't have the same options in day to day driving, which is where the Tesla is particularly enjoyable.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

I find it strange that Tesla sales in Germany have remained at a stubborn 700 monthly average for the last six months. 

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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Check out this guy, lowly F30 N20 320i 180HP with stock suspension, 16-inch wheel, below 10 minutes at Nurburgiing, where is turbo lag?
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlGkW3Y0gzA


You most definitely have never driven a Tesla (despite claiming having "borrowed a friends" for a few weeks or whatever) since you have not the slightest clue on the lag the rest of us are talking about.

My GF used to be a bit timid driving my high boosted twin-scroll 135i with its power when running on 30% E85. Now that she's used to my Model 3 when she drives the 1'er she says "I press the gas and nothing happens".

Yes, shes's half joking but all performance EV drivers know exactly what she means.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

GregD said:


> A race track is a very different environment from the street. You can anticipate and get on the throttle earlier and shift the gears in such a way as to optimize the vehicle's performance. You usually don't have the same options in day to day driving, which is where the Tesla is particularly enjoyable.


Yea this is very true. I really hate my DCT for daily driving but it's amazing (for an ICE transmission) on the track.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Dio///M said:


> I find it strange that Tesla sales in Germany have remained at a stubborn 700 monthly average for the last six months.
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


June Tesla sales in Germany 1,605
Sales first half 2019 in Germany 6,209
700*6 = 4200

Hmmm...... Someone is wrong.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

Just a comment about losing money. A lot of people take a loss and divide it by the number of cars sold and claim the company loses that much on every car. That's an incorrect way of looking at things. It gives the wrong impression that selling more cars would mean a larger loss which may not be true. Companies that have large R&D costs or large overhead or marketing may lose money but would make money if they sold more product. An interesting number to look at is gross margin. For Tesla on the Model 3 that is around 19%. That's down from where it has been. It is about the same as GM and better than Ford. In 2019 BMW gross margins are down and have varied between 18.51% and 17.67%. This compares to March 2018 when BMW was at 21.35%.

No dark sinister meaning in my post. An earlier post was dividing losses by cars sold.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> You most definitely have never driven a Tesla (despite claiming having "borrowed a friends" for a few weeks or whatever) since you have not the slightest clue on the lag the rest of us are talking about.


So your conclusion from a post about a lowly 180HP MT 16-inch BMW smoothly navigating through Nurburgring is that the poster has zero experience about Tesla nor instant torque. Well your reasoning is your own, and it is pointless to explore otherwise.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Just a comment about losing money. A lot of people take a loss and divide it by the number of cars sold and claim the company loses that much on every car. That's an incorrect way of looking at things. It gives the wrong impression that selling more cars would mean a larger loss which may not be true. Companies that have large R&D costs or large overhead or marketing may lose money but would make money if they sold more product. An interesting number to look at is gross margin. For Tesla on the Model 3 that is around 19%. That's down from where it has been. It is about the same as GM and better than Ford. In 2019 BMW gross margins are down and have varied between 18.51% and 17.67%. This compares to March 2018 when BMW was at 21.35%.


Gross margin is one parameter to gauge the viability of a company's product and business, however there are other parameters that investors and bond holders use too. At the end of the day, if a terrific gross margin of, say, 99%, can still lead to huge losses with not much positive cash flow, the prospect may not be too rosy.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> With the F30, I think the delay is caused by a combination of turbo lag and the automatic.
> 
> Even a manual transmission effectively has some "lag" compared to a Tesla, since you'll typically have to shift to a lower gear when you're cruising along to get the best performance. Fortunately, you can anticipate this to shift into the right gear ahead of time, but it's still not as direct as the Tesla.


Comparing F30 MT to ZF 8AT with I4 turbo's flat power band, the AT actually pulls better 0-60 and is more fuel efficient than MT. One factor is that MT is not easy to maintain turbo boost while up shifting. This is mitigated somewhat in LCI by adding auto rev match to MT, but MT purists cried foul!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Comparing F30 MT to ZF 8AT with I4 turbo's flat power band, the AT actually pulls better 0-60 and is more fuel efficient than MT. One factor is that MT is not easy to maintain turbo boost while up shifting. This is mitigated somewhat in LCI by adding auto rev match to MT, but MT purists cried foul!


 Actually, I've been pretty impressed with a number of the new 8 speed automatics. They finally don't have a performance penalty compared to a manual and they typically get better gas mileage. Still, if you want to play with a car, a manual is more fun, even if it may not be as fast.

In the Tesla, where we're going, we don't need transmissions.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Actually, I've been pretty impressed with a number of the new 8 speed automatics. They finally don't have a performance penalty compared to a manual and they typically get better gas mileage. Still, if you want to play with a car, a manual is more fun, even if it may not be as fast.
> 
> In the Tesla, where we're going, we don't need transmissions.


The ZF 8AT shifts pretty fast, like 200ms? It can be down shifted non-sequentially by itself, or M/S or paddle can be tapped multiple times to downshift, and the mechatronics guarantees no over-rev!

As far as Tesla transmission .... at least there is 1 gear per motor.  And Audi did have 3-speed single motor EV competing in Formula E.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The ZF 8AT shifts pretty fast, like 200ms? It can be down shifted non-sequentially by itself, or M/S or paddle can be tapped multiple times to downshift, and the mechatronics guarantees no over-rev!
> 
> As far as Tesla transmission .... at least there is 1 gear per motor.  And Audi did have 3-speed single motor EV competing in Formula E.


You are missing the point and further reinforcing the opinion that you have no seat time in a Tesla.

EV single speed driving is completely transformative as the car provides instantaneous power on demand in every situation up until you are at very illegal speeds of say 85+ mph.

Shifting and worrying about settings becomes a dinosaur problem. You instead focus on actually driving the car.

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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Your anecdote of Tesla not surviving a hail/ice storm that your BMW did is just anecdotal nonsense you are quite well known for.


You keep bashing on me about being "nonsense". While I didn't have a Tesla around to check if it suffered any damage, I guess it would and I don't think it's far from reality.

First, I haven't seen a car with such a bad paint
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UMh6ALFGF5FXUh4p9

Second: numerous cracked roof glasses posted by owners

Third: Skipped water leak tests at factory and owners reporting water in trunk and tail lights
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/15/tes...-describe-pressure-to-make-model-3-goals.html

Water leak test is not the only one they were skipping. They don't do any drive test for smooth ride or rattle check either.

https://insideevs.com/news/363072/video-ex-tesla-employee-interview/
"Part of the detailing would be, if there were missing clips, to get clips on there and put everything together. Basically, the factory was having us finish the process because they were trying to push cars out so fast."

Obviously there was no rattle test if clips were missing. Also many owners reported misaligned suspension right after pick up which also points to no drive test.

I feel you should shout "nonsense" to Tesla leadership instead.

It reminds me of the car maker Dacia in the 80s. They kept licensing the design from Renault but the manufacturing was just horrible. New owners took the new cars to a mechanic first who took them apart and reassembled them properly. Then it became as good as a Renault.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> bmwusa says 2019 i3 has range of 153 miles, extended by 30% with REX to 200 miles.


I stand corrected. 2019 models are rated to 153 miles as you say. The 200 mile model is not a true EV.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> I stand corrected. 2019 models are rated to 153 miles as you say. The 200 mile model is not a true EV.


That is true, i3 has a small(er) 42.2kWh battery + 2 gears, 153 miles of pure EV range is not bad.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> That is true, i3 has a small(er) 42.2kWh battery + 2 gears, 153 miles of pure EV range is not bad.


It's also a $45,000 base price EV and is smashed by nearly every metric by the $35,000 Tesla Model 3.

There are over 20 Model 3s in my company's car park garage, there are zero I3s.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> It's also a $45,000 base price EV and is smashed by nearly every metric by the $35,000 Tesla Model 3.
> 
> There are over 20 Model 3s in my company's car park garage, there are zero I3s.


The i3 lease deals are cheaper than SR ones, something like $12k versus $16k for 3 years 10k miles/yr, so the market is efficient.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> The i3 lease deals are cheaper than SR ones, something like $12k versus $16k for 3 years 10k miles/yr, so the market is efficient.


Sure bmw can heavily subsidize their current overpriced EV offering because it keeps them active in the segment and probably helps with their cafe numbers.

If you live in a cooler climate the i3 is worthless for anything other than short range commuting.

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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Sure bmw can heavily subsidize their current overpriced EV offering because it keeps them active in the segment and probably helps with their cafe numbers.
> 
> If you live in a cooler climate the i3 is worthless for anything other than short range commuting.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


i3 REX $12k for 3 years 10k/yr is not overpriced EV with pure 153 miles of range.

If the comment is referring to BMW MSRP, festers already know for a long long while that specific number is not too meaningful.


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

That***8217;s a good lease price but the 10k annual mileage and lack of a charging network severely restrict it as a daily driver except for local driving. It***8217;s a very much compromised EV compared to the 3. It***8217;s a toy.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

That***8217;s a good lease price but the 10k annual mileage and lack of a charging network severely restrict it as a daily driver except for local driving. It***8217;s a very much compromised EV compared to the 3. It***8217;s a placeholder and early development vehicle towards soon to come high volume BMW EV***8217;s.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> That's a good lease price but the 10k annual mileage and lack of a charging network severely restrict it as a daily driver except for local driving. It's a very much compromised EV compared to the 3. It's a placeholder and early development vehicle towards soon to come high volume BMW EV's.


The coworker's final deal was $51000-ish MSRP i3 REX 3 years 10k/yr, cap cost $35600, $2800 MSD(not sure what is max. MSD), $12.5k total.

153 miles of EV + 47 miles of extended do not sound too much of compromise, esp. 47 miles can be extended from gas station to gas station if needed. 

Maybe the next i3 revision can double gas tank size and provide 100+ miles of extended range, and improve battery range to 200+ miles.


----------



## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

namelessman said:


> The coworker's final deal was $51000-ish MSRP i3 REX 3 years 10k/yr, cap cost $35600, $2800 MSD(not sure what is max. MSD), $12.5k total.
> 
> 153 miles of EV + 47 miles of extended do not sound too much of compromise, esp. 47 miles can be extended from gas station to gas station if needed.
> 
> Maybe the next i3 revision can double gas tank size and provide 100+ miles of extended range, and improve battery range to 200+ miles.


I hope he never has to drive more than 100 miles one way in his i3. Will there be a next gen i3? I doubt it. It's already obsolete.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> I hope he never has to drive more than 100 miles one way in his i3. Will there be a next gen i3? I doubt it. It's already obsolete.


It is unclear to me that PHEVs are as obsolete as BEV proponents would like to believe, and i3 is a rare breed with EV range better than gasoline range!

The next gen of BMW EVs appear to be iX3, i4, and iNext in 2021.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Well your comment of tepid performance and mediocre handling is your personal experience or your extrapolation?
> 
> Surprisingly, the closet H2 refuel station to my work is a bit over 2 miles away, and within 10 miles there are 5 total.
> 
> ...


If you have a hydrogen fueled car today, good luck getting fuel for it. This is part of the danger of using hydrogen fuel.



> In its first big test, the passenger-car hydrogen economy appears to be failing.
> 
> A June explosion at a hydrogen production facility in Santa Clara, California, owned by hydrogen producer Air Products shut off the fuel supply to many of the hydrogen filling stations in the San Francisco Bay Area.
> 
> ...


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

GregD said:


> If you have a hydrogen fueled car today, good luck getting fuel for it. This is part of the danger of using hydrogen fuel.


Yes, I'm waiting with bated breath on what his many hydrogen car co-workers have to say about this.

Do they keep spare canisters of hydrogen at home for such emergencies?

:rofl::rofl::rofl:


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Yes, I'm waiting with bated breath on what his many hydrogen car co-workers have to say about this.
> 
> Do they keep spare canisters of hydrogen at home for such emergencies?
> 
> :rofl::rofl::rofl:


Maybe that's why those two have been working at home?!? 

Last round(in June) one got a Toyota loaner while the other still got fuel from other refueling stations close to home, both said fuel supply resumed afterwards(not sure how long), so it is time to take another pulse reading (if there is still any!) from them.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> If you have a hydrogen fueled car today, good luck getting fuel for it. This is part of the danger of using hydrogen fuel.


According to the two Mirai owners the supplier True Zero is affected and their stations get daily refuel at night but runs out in the morning, while refuel stations 10 miles north are OK.

One lives around an unaffected station and he is OK. The other one is True Zero territory and has been driving a Jetta rental since(paid by Toyota, who runs out of loaners at dealers), and does not eat into the 21-day premium rental. The one with Jetta rental is trying to switch into a Audi Q3 next(pending Toyota approval).

This does not sound bad as far as genuine pigs are concerned.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> According to the two Mirai owners the supplier True Zero is affected and their stations get daily refuel at night but runs out in the morning, while refuel stations 10 miles north are OK.
> 
> One lives around an unaffected station and he is OK. The other one is True Zero territory and has been driving a Jetta rental since(paid by Toyota, who runs out of loaners at dealers), and does not eat into the 21-day premium rental. The one with Jetta rental is trying to switch into a Audi Q3 next(pending Toyota approval).
> 
> This does not sound bad as far as genuine pigs are concerned.


In summary, hydrogen fueled vehicles have an extremely limited infrastructure for their fuel source, so limited in fact, that an accident at one production plant is enough to force owners to have to rent another car to get around. And that's in the only state in the country that has any significant support at all for hydrogen fueled vehicles. Totally not ready for prime time.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> According to the two Mirai owners the supplier True Zero is affected and their stations get daily refuel at night but runs out in the morning, while refuel stations 10 miles north are OK.
> 
> One lives around an unaffected station and he is OK. The other one is True Zero territory and has been driving a Jetta rental since(paid by Toyota, who runs out of loaners at dealers), and does not eat into the 21-day premium rental. The one with Jetta rental is trying to switch into a Audi Q3 next(pending Toyota approval).
> 
> This does not sound bad as far as genuine pigs are concerned.


Yeah, sounds really convenient. :tsk:

VW just unveiled their id.3 final production version that they will start building late this year and will be available (in Europe only) by next summer. 300+ mile range in top trim, fast charging, all the fixings in a hot little hatch.

Hydrogen is DoA other than some specific applications where it might make sense in the medium term like freight, delivery, military. I feel sorry for anyone who thinks they want one as a daily driver.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> In summary, hydrogen fueled vehicles have an extremely limited infrastructure for their fuel source, so limited in fact, that an accident at one production plant is enough to force owners to have to rent another car to get around. And that's in the only state in the country that has any significant support at all for hydrogen fueled vehicles. Totally not ready for prime time.


That is the status quo(analogous to EV1?) and the attentions the guinea pigs receive does reflect that.

Do note that all-in for these gents is $9500, that is not bad if they get a Audi Q3 rental for 3 years($9500 is current rate for 3-year Jetta lease)!


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> That is the status quo(analogous to EV1?) and the attentions the guinea pigs receive does reflect that.
> 
> Do note that all-in for these gents is $9500, that is not bad if they get a Audi Q3 rental for 3 years($9500 is current rate for 3-year Jetta lease)!


What's your time worth? What's the time dealing with only being able to detour and fill up at these specific stations? What's the time dealing with getting a rental?

If there are enough subsidies going to incentivize people to put up with this crap more power to them. I like being able to plug in either at home or work and never needing to make a fueling detour of any kind unless I'm going on a long drive, in which cases I would typically be driving our gas sucking ICE SUV anyways.

I had to gas up said SUV last week and did small detour to Costco to save some $$ on it. 10 minutes to detour to Costco then the fuel lines were quite long so about 10-15 minutes in line to get the car fueled, then another 10 minutes to get back on-route.

Stopping for fuel of any kind SUCKS.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> What's your time worth? What's the time dealing with only being able to detour and fill up at these specific stations? What's the time dealing with getting a rental?
> 
> If there are enough subsidies going to incentivize people to put up with this crap more power to them. I like being able to plug in either at home or work and never needing to make a fueling detour of any kind unless I'm going on a long drive, in which cases I would typically be driving our gas sucking ICE SUV anyways.
> 
> ...


Typical Costco gas station in CO is 12 pumps? The local ones are 24, so 2 minutes to fuel up is norm for a typical Costco run(no detour time).

In fact lately the mobile fuel delivery service has been fueling up my car at work, for about $0.15-0.20 extra per gallon(can be lower dependent on supply of the day) compared to Costco(and lower than typical top-tier), and 1 minute to order on app.

My thinking is that mobile service will be a great way to deliver hydrogen!


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Actually there are ICE engine cars with 15 years/150000 miles warranty on major emissions parts.
> 
> Specifically my current F30 has such warranty from BMWNA on engine sensors(oxygen, camshaft, crankshaft, MAF, knock,and other), torque converter, mechatronics, cat, fuel system, fuel tank, turbo, VCG, ignition coils, radiator, charge air parts, VANOS, etc, etc.
> 
> ...


I think Greg speaks from user experience with Tesla.
https://insideevs.com/news/373339/new-evidence-tesla-model-3-rust/

I have yet to see any other brand with such a thin paint and visible unpainted areas.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I think Greg speaks from user experience with Tesla.
> https://insideevs.com/news/373339/new-evidence-tesla-model-3-rust/
> 
> I have yet to see any other brand with such a thin paint and visible unpainted areas.


It surely sucks to be among the customers having this issue, especially with the amount of money paid.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

namelessman said:


> As far as $4k maintenance and repairs, my old E39 costs $4k(excluding tires) to reach 12 years and 100k miles with dealer + indy services. That is not bad on a BMW, right? If DIY labor, parts only may be around $2k or less?


My 330 (tires excluded) was under $1500 to a bit over 127,000 miles when it was sold @ ten years old. All DIY after warranty ran out.:thumbup:


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

All the Tesla haters have no idea of how nice of a car the Tesla is. I purchased a Tesla model s a couple months ago for my wife and we both love the car. If you actually drove a Tesla for everyday driving for a while I think many would change their bias opinions. We have been driving BMW***8217;s for years and have really enjoyed them but after experiencing a Tesla they are the real ultimate driving machine. My wife drives a lot and we figure in the last 2 months she has saved close to $500 in fuel costs. Until you haters actually experience a Tesla you have no idea of how nice of a car they are.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> My 330 (tires excluded) was under $1500 to a bit over 127,000 miles when it was sold @ ten years old. All DIY after warranty ran out.:thumbup:


Yes that sounds like the right ball park!:thumbup: Even with indy labor, and/or dealer coupon, $4k should stretch to last 150000 miles, especially when major emission parts are covered for 15 years/150000 miles.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> All the Tesla haters have no idea of how nice of a car the Tesla is. I purchased a Tesla model s a couple months ago for my wife and we both love the car. If you actually drove a Tesla for everyday driving for a while I think many would change their bias opinions. We have been driving BMW's for years and have really enjoyed them but after experiencing a Tesla they are the real ultimate driving machine. My wife drives a lot and we figure in the last 2 months she has saved close to $500 in fuel costs. Until you haters actually experience a Tesla you have no idea of how nice of a car they are.


One reason why I hate this company so much is the constant lying. Just a recent example, if you order a car now, here is the description for Fool's Self-Driving

Full Self-Driving Capability

Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
*Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.*

Now I suggest you look up the recent summon videos and make your own conclusion.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> One reason why I hate this company so much is the constant lying. Just a recent example, if you order a car now, here is the description for Fool's Self-Driving
> 
> Full Self-Driving Capability
> 
> ...


When Tesla owners start to discover Tesla throttling charge capabilities and post on Tesla forums, it goes something like:

1. owners post about issues
2. owners are vilified by forum members
3. the truth gradually comes out

The above is quite consistent of various issues with Tesla. At times such behavior also shows in bimmerfest, e.g. N20/N26 timing chain issue, when my thread was started, the mod quickly labeled it as "false narratives". This kind of behavior is not healthy and helpful for fostering openness on enthusiast forums.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> *Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.*


My take is that FSD is still a long long long way away.


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

acoste said:


> One reason why I hate this company so much is the constant lying. Just a recent example, if you order a car now, here is the description for Fool's Self-Driving
> 
> Full Self-Driving Capability
> 
> ...


Do you mean that an auto manufacturer is making an exaggerated claim? Wow that never happens and Tesla is the first automaker to do such a thing. Lol. I could care less and if that***8217;s all you have against them then that***8217;s pretty weak. The auto drive and summons do not make this car so that***8217;s not a big plus to me. But my wife saving $250.00 a month on fuel cost is.

Like I***8217;ve already mentioned if you haven***8217;t driven a Tesla as a daily driver for a decent amount of time you have no idea of how nice of a car they are. Plus you can***8217;t make a fair comparison like someone that has driven both BMW***8217;s and Tesla***8217;s.

Time will tell I purchased my tesla used and I will see how dependable it is and how expensive it is to maintain. If it is reliable and doesn***8217;t cost a ton to maintain then there is no doubt my next car will be a Tesla.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Actually there are ICE engine cars with 15 years/150000 miles warranty on major emissions parts.
> 
> Specifically my current F30 has such warranty from BMWNA on engine sensors(oxygen, camshaft, crankshaft, MAF, knock,and other), torque converter, mechatronics, cat, fuel system, fuel tank, turbo, VCG, ignition coils, radiator, charge air parts, VANOS, etc, etc.
> 
> ...


 What about oil leaks, water pump, valves, pistons, rods, etc., etc., etc.?

I suppose if you only change the oil every 15k miles or so when the oil service light comes up, never change your brake fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, differential fluid, transmission fluid, fuel filter, suspension bushings, shocks, drive your car like a little old lady so you rarely have to change the brakes, etc., and you have unusually good luck with repairs on your BMW, it might cost you less than $4k. My experience with multiple BMWs is that 15 years or 150,000 miles with less than $4k in maintenance and repairs is not going to happen except in unusual circumstances, and the car will likely be junk by the end of that time. When doing this type of analysis, using DIY amounts for the average car buyer is not applicable.

Also, including certain unusual warranties only available on a very limited number of models and/or years and/or locations of a particular car really isn't reasonable for a general discussion. I have a Jeep Wrangler that I bought when they had a lifetime powertrain warranty; it's one of the main reasons I've kept it, but it's not the norm for Jeep Wranglers.

I notice you completely ignored the other part of my post about ICE cars not meeting your other requirements. Please provide us a list of the ICE cars that meet all of these following requirements that you listed.



> $35000
> 3500lb
> Model 3/3-series size
> 0-60 5 to 6 seconds
> ...


 The closest one I'm coming up with is a BMW 330i, but it's base price is $40,750, it weighs almost 3600 pounds, and the only way it can even approach "go kart handling" is to get the Track Handling Package which requires the M Sport package. Together the two packages add $7,650 to the price bringing it up to $48,400.

P.S. I have owned 3 BMWs past 100k miles and have generally done almost all of my own maintenance and repairs after the warranty period. I still own one BMW, a 2003 330i with 151k miles on it. Perhaps you shouldn't make assumptions.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> I think Greg speaks from user experience with Tesla.
> https://insideevs.com/news/373339/new-evidence-tesla-model-3-rust/
> 
> I have yet to see any other brand with such a thin paint and visible unpainted areas.


I've had no problems with the paint on my car. The Tesla warranty regarding rust is 12 years, unlimited miles, which is exactly the same as BMW's.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I notice you completely ignored the other part of my post about ICE cars not meeting your other requirements. Please provide us a list of the ICE cars that meet all of these following requirements that you listed.
> 
> The closest one I'm coming up with is a BMW 330i, but it's base price is $40,750, it weighs almost 3600 pounds, and the only way it can even approach "go kart handling" is to get the Track Handling Package which requires the M Sport package. Together the two packages add $7,650 to the price bringing it up to $48,400.


Do note post#3513 says this:

"My *desired* spec for a EV(regardless of make) is as follows: .... *Doable in 5-6 years?*"

Why do u compare my desired spec 5-6 years out(or 10 years out?) to a current model BMW?!? :dunno: Your post pretty much ignored what my post asked for, and then twisted it to fit your frame of reference.

When Tesla was started in 2003, your assertion below probably applied to them too:

"Basically, you are just showing that you have *unrealistic expectations* from a car."

BTW G20 dramatic price drops that base $40750 by $6k or more just last Friday in local dealer sales event(regional incentives for outgoing 2019). It may not as go-kart as K1, but not that bad for what it is.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> What about oil leaks, water pump, valves, pistons, rods, etc., etc., etc.?
> 
> I suppose if you only change the oil every 15k miles or so when the oil service light comes up, never change your brake fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, differential fluid, transmission fluid, fuel filter, suspension bushings, shocks, drive your car like a little old lady so you rarely have to change the brakes, etc., and you have unusually good luck with repairs on your BMW, it might cost you less than $4k. My experience with multiple BMWs is that 15 years or 150,000 miles with less than $4k in maintenance and repairs is not going to happen except in unusual circumstances, and the car will likely be junk by the end of that time. When doing this type of analysis, using DIY amounts for the average car buyer is not applicable.
> 
> ...


So with DIY(zero labor cost) on your E46, your out of pocket(excluding tires) on parts has been above $4k? So how much is total, say, $6k? $10k? $4k does buy lots of parts.

Parts like brake fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, differential fluid, transmission fluid, fuel filter are relatively cheap, e.g. another thread just reminded me that E46/E39 has a non-pressurized fuel filter for $11 Hengst!

Pistons and rods may not be common repair for non-track DD. Your pistons and rods did give out?!?

F30 15 yrs/150k miles warranty covers thermostat, water pump does cost $350, plus labor, but DIY zero labor right?  The E46 water pump is like $50? Heck the whole E46/E39 cooling system parts is $440!

Now my old E39 did need bushings, like $40, plus $200 labor to swap in. But struts + springs for non-track DD and no crazy stop-light to stop-light should last 150000 miles.

Maybe your driving habits do stress out your cars to their limits.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> So with DIY(zero labor cost) on your E46, your out of pocket(excluding tires) on parts has been above $4k? So how much is total, say, $6k? $10k? $4k does buy lots of parts.
> 
> Parts like brake fluid, coolant, power steering fluid, differential fluid, transmission fluid, fuel filter are relatively cheap, e.g. another thread just reminded me that E46/E39 has a non-pressurized fuel filter for $11 Hengst!
> 
> ...


As I pointed out in the post that you responded to, "using DIY amounts for the average car buyer is not applicable." I'm admittedly not the average car buyer.  This also means that most people are paying list prices for BMW parts, which are typically more than double the price of equivalent OEM parts from non-BMW sources.

Many people are satisfied with their car's performance degrading as it gets older and parts wear, and don't replace parts until they're either broken or worn out in such a way that the car can't be driven without the parts being replaced. I like to keep my cars performing reasonably close to the way they did when new, and I try to prolong their life; this requires more maintenance and repairs than what many people put into their car. So yes, even with DIY labor, and using quality OEM parts, my maintenance and repair costs on all the BMWs that I've owned past 100k miles have exceeded $4,000 excluding tires.

The cheapest BMW that I owned past 100k miles was an 84 325i which was right at $5k through 160k miles when the head gasket developed a leak. I didn't want to do the repair and sold the car cheap since the independent mechanic quoted me $2,500 just to pull the head, do a refresh on it, and reinstall it. And that was assuming that nothing else was found to be wrong. This was also 2 to 3 decades ago; adjust the amounts for inflation and they'd be much higher in today's dollars.

On the 2003 330i that I still own with 151k miles, I have about $5,500 in parts and a lot of labor into it. Besides normal maintenance items like fluids, filters, brakes, tires, batteries, etc., the primary repairs have been the following.

Power steering pressure hose at 73k
Stewart water pump, thermostat, idler pulley and serpentine belt at 80k
Front control arm bushings at 80k
Rear trailing arm bushings at 91k
Radiator, radiator hoses, coolant level sensor, and expansion tank at 102k
CCV valve and hoses, cold weather version at 102k
Dr. Vanos install at 102k
GAS DISA mod at 102k
New intake boots at 102k
Valve cover gasket at 102k
Oil filter housing to block gasket at 102k
Replace starter at 103k
Replace passenger power window switch at 106k
Refresh front and rear suspension including shocks, rubber parts, end links, and mounts at 107k (The shocks started feeling soft at 90k; I put if off as long as I could stand)
Replace oil pressure sensor at 110k
Had GM5 control module repaired at 122k
Replace oil level sensor at 123k
Replace left front grill at 123k
Replace A/C blower motor and fan at 125k
Replace oil level sensor at 133k
Replace oil filter housing to block gasket at 139k
New power steering reservoir cap at 139k
New tensioner pulley for serpentine belt at 139k
New lower snorkel for air cleaner housing at 139k
Replace ignition switch electrical part at 143k
Replace power brake booster at 144k

I bought a 2004 540i M sport with 6 speed used with 80k miles on it. Over the next 40k miles, I put over $5k into it for suspension, window regulators, and quite a few other parts. Parts were distinctly more expensive for it than for a 3 series. It was a beautiful car, fun to drive while still being luxurious, but it seemed like it was always needing something fairly expensive to be fixed on it.


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

GregD said:


> On the 2003 330i that I still own with 151k miles, I have about $5,500 in parts and a lot of labor into it. Besides normal maintenance items like fluids, filters, brakes, tires, batteries, etc., the primary repairs have been the following.
> 
> Power steering pressure hose at 73k
> Stewart water pump, thermostat, idler pulley and serpentine belt at 80k
> ...


Marked in red items I replaced on 2004 330ZHP 6MT Convertible. IIRC the most expensive items I replaced were the O2 sensors around 90K miles not on your list. They were about $550 for the 4 of them.

Valve cover gasket was about $60 + $12 for the grommets. Most of the other money were a few sets of brakes.

Rest was minor stuff filters, oil, ect. Car sold at a premium because of condition & ZHP package.

Car lived outdoors 24/7-365 & roof was in excellent condition. No room in the garage for it. Was detailed twice over its life.

Would not comment on your 540 experience because it was used before you bought it.

Oh Yeah, I drive like an old lady :rofl:


----------



## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

GregD said:


> On the 2003 330i that I still own with 151k miles, I have about $5,500 in parts and a lot of labor into it. Besides normal maintenance items like fluids, filters, brakes, tires, batteries, etc., the primary repairs have been the following.
> 
> Power steering pressure hose at 73k
> Stewart water pump, thermostat, idler pulley and serpentine belt at 80k
> ...


Marked in red items I replaced on 2004 330ZHP 6MT Convertible. IIRC the most expensive items I replaced were the O2 sensors around 90K miles not on your list. They were the about $550 for the 4 of them, got exact match units with the plugs installed.

Valve cover gasket was about $60 + $12 for the grommets in the 80K miles range. Most of the other money was a few sets of brakes & minor stuff filters, oil, ect.

It sold at a premium because of condition & ZHP package.

Car lived outdoors 24/7-365 & roof was in excellent condition. No room in the garage for it. Was detailed twice over its life.

Would not comment on your 540 experience because it was used before you bought it.

Oh Yeah, I drive like an old lady :rofl:


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> On the 2003 330i that I still own with 151k miles, I have about $5,500 in parts and a lot of labor into it. Besides normal maintenance items like fluids, filters, brakes, tires, batteries, etc., the primary repairs have been the following.
> 
> Power steering pressure hose at 73k
> Stewart water pump, thermostat, idler pulley and serpentine belt at 80k
> ...


The intent to throwing out a spec like "$4k battery replacement [email protected] miles and 15 years" is to suggest an improvement versus the current $12k cost as quoted from Tesla.

Drawing a comparison of that *future spec*($4k) to ICE total cost of ownership(parts + labor) of 20-year old E39/E46 may not be apple-to-apple. Instead, the *current* $12k replacement cost is at par with owning ICE to 15 years/150000 miles even for aging 20-year old E46/E39, right?

A sample data point is, my previous E39 I6 N/A 5MT was sold at 12 years and 100k, and now is at 19 years and 200k miles with 2nd owner. It took $4k to get to 100k, and $11.5k to go from 100k to 200k(tires excluded). The [email protected] 100k is about $2.5k labor, and [email protected] 100k is around $6.5k labor, so parts only is roughly $7k in 200k miles. Some of the jobs were @dealer too.

As far as E46 and E39, these I6 and V8 N/A engines are known to be high temp running machines with surging power bands that eat up plastic parts. Owning from day 1 helps a lot to stay on top of maintenance and repair issues, buying a [email protected] takes courage and guts! 

In comparison, the new gen of I4 and I6 turbo engines have flat power bands to mate with turbo and CARB targets, their engine temp management(similar to BMS?) is light years ahead of E46/E39 days! Also those lengthy 15 years/150000 miles emission warranty on I4 forces BMWAG to use better, more durable parts to avoid costly warranty repairs past 100k, and that is a huge plus.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The intent to throwing out a spec like "$4k battery replacement [email protected] miles and 15 years" is to suggest an improvement versus the current $12k cost as quoted from Tesla.
> 
> Drawing a comparison of that *future spec*($4k) to ICE total cost of ownership(parts + labor) of 20-year old E39/E46 may not be apple-to-apple. Instead, the *current* $12k replacement cost is at par with owning ICE to 15 years/150000 miles even for aging 20-year old E46/E39, right?
> 
> ...


 Actually, I think there's hope for $4k or $5k rebuilt battery swap out sometime in the future, but it will probably have to be aftermarket which Tesla really seems to discourage. Still, at some point down the line I don't think Tesla will be able to stop it.

Based on the reports from owners and Elon's tweets, I think it's reasonable to expect that the battery pack in the Model 3 will last in excess of 300,000 miles on average, so perhaps it should be compared to ICE cars at 300,000 miles rather than 150,000.

I do think that it makes more sense to talk about current spec cars for the purpose of this discussion, so we should really only be looking at 2019 models. In the case of BMW, the 15 year / 150,000 mile warranty is so limited in scope (only 10 states I believe) and vehicle choice (only the i3 and 530e), that it's really nothing in the overall scheme of things. It is not useful when making general comparisons to any other vehicle and should be ignored.

The only particularly expensive problem that I ran into with the 540i were the shocks which I knew when I bought it. It had the same suspension as the M5, and the aluminum bodied shocks were pricey. Everything else was just a couple hundred here, a couple hundred there, but you get enough of those and they start to add up.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

bear-avhistory said:


> Marked in red items I replaced on 2004 330ZHP 6MT Convertible. IIRC the most expensive items I replaced were the O2 sensors around 90K miles not on your list. They were about $550 for the 4 of them.
> 
> Valve cover gasket was about $60 + $12 for the grommets. Most of the other money were a few sets of brakes.
> 
> ...


 That minor stuff adds up. I change the oil every 7,500 miles. If you use the BMW synthetic, you're looking at about $90 for oil and filter. Multiply that by 17 oil changes over 127,000 miles and you're up to $1,500 for just oil and oil filters. Brake fluid, diff oil, tranny oil, coolant, and power steering fluid all add up over time. At 127,000 miles, you've probably replaced your brakes at least twice since you don't drive like an old lady.  You could probably get away with not changing the rotors every other time, but they're not that expensive and it does help to keep your brakes operating like new. So, you're probably looking at $600+ if you just get decent quality OEM style stuff, nothing fancy like the performance brakes.

At over 120,000 miles on your car, if it was well maintained, you should have spent $2k+ just in the "minor stuff".


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> That minor stuff adds up. I change the oil every 7,500 miles. If you use the BMW synthetic, you're looking at about $90 for oil and filter. Multiply that by 17 oil changes over 127,000 miles and you're up to $1,500 for just oil and oil filters. Brake fluid, diff oil, tranny oil, coolant, and power steering fluid all add up over time. At 127,000 miles, you've probably replaced your brakes at least twice since you don't drive like an old lady.  You could probably get away with not changing the rotors every other time, but they're not that expensive and it does help to keep your brakes operating like new. So, you're probably looking at $600+ if you just get decent quality OEM style stuff, nothing fancy like the performance brakes.
> 
> At over 120,000 miles on your car, if it was well maintained, you should have spent $2k+ just in the "minor stuff".


Bear's E46 got 127k in 10 years, or 38.1k for first 3 years, which should at least get around 4 free oil changes under 3 years/36k miles free maintenance for E46. So 17 - 4 = 13 oil [email protected]$90, or around $1200 to 127k miles. Nonetheless $1500-$2000 sounds about right parts-only For E39/E46 for first 100k-125k miles.

EDIT: 
online BMW oil + filter kit from dealer for E46 is $74 shipped, so that $1200 drops to $962! E39 V8 does cost extra $7, so $81 * 14 = $1053

Now there is a vendor FCPEuro that promises lifetime guarantee, so some festers said they ship used oil + filter back for $35 shipping, and get new kit for for free!

If FCP is legit, then your 14 oil change will cost $100(approximate, first purchase) + 13 * $35 shipping back = $555!!!


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

My colleague is still on rental while his Clarity FC is garaged. The latest news is that Toyota waives up to 6 months of lease payments to compensate(in addition to free rental + free fuel for rental). So his net cost drops from $9500 to $7000-ish. This is pretty good treatment of guinea pigs!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The AE pricing tiers try to recoup the most from 1-125kW.
> 
> The 1-75kW is $0.18/min, and 1-350kW is $0.70/min. These are better value than 1-125kW tier.
> 
> ...


 I haven't heard of Model 3s being capable of being charged at 300kW+; the max that I know of is the V3 Superchargers which max out at 250kW. Even then that max charger rate is only supported for a short period of time at low charge levels.

To get a 160 mile charge on a Model 3 on an EA charger will undoubtedly cost more on a 350kW charger than on a 125kW charger due to the max charge speed the Model 3 would allow. As for the 75kW charger, I don't think most people want to wait almost twice as long to get charged up.

Also, I'd like to point out that they will have 2,000 DC fast chargers at 300 sites, that includes Chademo chargers that max out at 50kW, and not all of the CCS chargers will be capable of 350kW. I haven't seen anything presenting actual data on how many of which type of charger will be at the EA locations.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My colleague is still on rental while his Clarity FC is garaged. The latest news is that Toyota waives up to 6 months of lease payments to compensate(in addition to free rental + free fuel for rental). So his net cost drops from $9500 to $7000-ish. This is pretty good treatment of guinea pigs!


Not a sustainable model for a car manufacturer however, unless the goal is to go bankrupt. There's a reason that Toyota severely limits where its fuel cell cars are sold, plus they're probably leasing the car at a loss even before these problems.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> To get a 160 mile charge on a Model 3 on an EA charger will undoubtedly cost more on a 350kW charger than on a 125kW charger due to the max charge speed the Model 3 would allow. As for the 75kW charger, I don't think most people want to wait almost twice as long to get charged up.


Just looking at 125kW, it does charge at 2.0833kW/min, for $0.50, or $0.24/min(plus spreading out of $4 monthly fee based on number of charges), that is not that far off from Supercharger's $0.22/min.

Also on 75kW, one often repeated comment from Tesla owners is that Supercharger stop is a pit stop anyway, so 20 minutes with 125kW versus 32 minutes with 75kW does not differ by too much(not twice as long).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Not a sustainable model for a car manufacturer however, unless the goal is to go bankrupt. There's a reason that Toyota severely limits where its fuel cell cars are sold, plus they're probably leasing the car at a loss even before these problems.


As far as experimental rollout goes it actually is not too bad, and my guess is many may not need rentals anyway as fuel supplies are gradually restored, but nothing beats free transportation for 6 months(and Toyota obliges to please).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Let's take an average Model 3 owner who normally charges at home, but decides to take a 3,000 mile road trip. The extra $6 is for only 160 miles. For the entire trip, the extra cost would have been at least 3000/160*6 or $112.50.


Taking a step back, my lowly 3-series can do 600+ miles per tank 16 gallons, so 5 refuels to stretch to 3000 miles, for 3-4 minutes per stop. @$4 is $320, and 20 minutes.

In comparison, Model 3/EV needs 18 [email protected] minutes each, costing $158 and 360 minutes.

Hmm, it may be worth $180 to some to save 320 minutes(5+ hours!), yes/no?


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## Michael Schott (Dec 7, 2007)

How are you getting 600+ miles per tank in your F30? I can***8217;t recall which model you have. Diesel? My 328i occasionally achieved an indicated 35 mpg on highway trips. Far more often more like 29 mpg in mixed driving. That***8217;s a range of 450 to 560 miles.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Michael Schott said:


> How are you getting 600+ miles per tank in your F30? I can't recall which model you have. Diesel? My 328i occasionally achieved an indicated 35 mpg on highway trips. Far more often more like 29 mpg in mixed driving. That's a range of 450 to 560 miles.


It is a 2013 328i N26. A frequent round trip of ours is 76.3 miles 1-way, or 152.6 miles RT with 4 gallons(start and end at gas pump). That is 38.15mpg, and iDrive usually shows 440-450 miles remaining range, so a little over 600 miles.

To be scientific, this page says fuel tank is 60L, or 15.85 US gallons, so 38.15mpg * 15.85G = 604.7 miles of range.

https://www.ultimatespecs.com/car-specs/BMW/40043/BMW-F30-3-Series-Sedan-328i.html


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> It is a 2013 328i N26. A frequent round trip of ours is 76.3 miles 1-way, or 152.6 miles RT with 4 gallons(start and end at gas pump). That is 38.15mpg, and iDrive usually shows 440-450 miles remaining range, so a little over 600 miles.
> 
> To be scientific, this page says fuel tank is 60L, or 15.85 US gallons, so 38.15mpg * 15.85G = 604.7 miles of range.
> 
> https://www.ultimatespecs.com/car-specs/BMW/40043/BMW-F30-3-Series-Sedan-328i.html


Apply the same bit of absurdity regarding range with the Model 3, which has a 310 mile range, and you're down to 8 stops for 3,000 miles. I was trying to be realistic, but if you don't want to you really shouldn't be making the comparisons you're making as if they're apples to apples when they're not. That's just deceptive and misleading.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Apply the same bit of absurdity regarding range with the Model 3, which has a 310 mile range, and you're down to 8 stops for 3,000 miles. I was trying to be realistic, but if you don't want to you really shouldn't be making the comparisons you're making as if they're apples to apples when they're not. That's just deceptive and misleading.


Good question, your case study is on Model 3 charged up every 160 miles, what is rationale to pick 160 miles then? Is that meant to confuse and mislead other festers?

In your post#3615:

"Let's say you want to add about 160 miles of range on a Tesla Model 3 that is down to 15% charge"

So is 160 miles from 100% down to 15%, so 85% for 160 miles? For 188 miles of total range?

Your subsequent post says 15% to 70%, so let's say 55% for 160 miles, so a total range of 290 miles?

If there is a limitation that your *case study can only charge 55% at a time*, then it is fair play and apple to apple comparison to *F30 3-series with no such limitation*(last drop of fuel, ok maybe LPHP will burn up).


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

namelessman said:


> Taking a step back, my lowly 3-series can do 600+ miles per tank 16 gallons, so 5 refuels to stretch to 3000 miles, for 3-4 minutes per stop. @$4 is $320, and 20 minutes.
> 
> In comparison, Model 3/EV needs 18 [email protected] minutes each, costing $158 and 360 minutes.
> 
> Hmm, it may be worth $180 to some to save 320 minutes(5+ hours!), yes/no?


Per fester's objection, let's go with 6 refuels for 500 miles each, so tank still has 100+ miles left, say, 2.5+ gallons left to save LPFP. 

Or use Michael's number of 560 miles, so 500 miles per fill up, and 60 miles of range to keep LPFP happy.

That extra fuel stop is extra 3-4 minutes, which is really not that much.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

G20 has got the EuroNCAP crash test results

beats Tesla Model 3 in all categories except the "Safety assist". Looks like lane assist isn't great, everything else is good. Beats Model 3 at AEB. Which I already guessed from http://www.tannistest.com/

https://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1350169


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Apply the same bit of absurdity regarding range with the Model 3, which has a 310 mile range, and you're down to 8 stops for 3,000 miles.* I was trying to be realistic*, but if you don't want to you really shouldn't be making the comparisons you're making as if they're apples to apples when they're not. That's just deceptive and misleading.


An inquisitive mind pointed out that tesla.com/trips does not agree with 160 miles and 18 stops for 3000 miles(and please confirm with your trip planner in your car).

SFO -> JFK 2976 miles, for 23 stops from 10 minutes to 50 minutes of charge time per stop.

In this route, let's be *unrealistic to make a F30 stop every time* a Model 3 needs to charge per Tesla, and let's say 5 minutes per refuel. Total time for F30 is 23 * 5 minutes = 115 minutes.

Adding up the charge time *per Tesla for this 2976 miles, it is 750 minutes*. Maybe some of those 45-55 minutes of charge time can be shortened per even more stops? :dunno:

So it would be 115 minutes and $320 for F30, versus 750 minutes and $160? That is almost *10 extra hours* needed for Model 3 versus F30!!! 

San Francisco International Airport (SFO), San Francisco, CA 94128, USA
Rocklin, CA, 10 min charge
Truckee, CA - Donner Pass Road, 30 min charge
Lovelock, NV, 20 min charge
Winnemucca, NV, 35 min charge
Elko, NV, 25 min charge
West Wendover, NV, 25 min charge
Tooele, UT, 25 min charge
Evanston, WY, 25 min charge
Rock Springs, WY, 30 min charge
Rawlins, WY, 25 min charge
Laramie, WY, 35 min charge
Sidney, NE, 40 min charge
Gothenburg, NE, 25 min charge
Grand Island, NE, 45 min charge
Council Bluffs, IA, 35 min charge
West Des Moines, IA. 35 min charge
Coralville, IA, 45 min charge
Peru, IL, 55 min charge
Mishawaka, IN, 40 min charge
Maumee, OH, 35 min charge
Macedonia, OH, 50 min charge
Falls Creek, PA, 40 min charge
Bloomsburg, PA, 50 min charge
John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Queens, NY 11430, USA
Duration: 58 h (2,978 mi)


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> An inquisitive mind pointed out that tesla.com/trips does not agree with 160 miles and 18 stops for 3000 miles(and please confirm with your trip planner in your car).
> 
> SFO -> JFK 2976 miles, for 23 stops from 10 minutes to 50 minutes of charge time per stop.
> 
> ...


You know you're just playing games here, and what you're posting ignores sleeping, eating, and using the bathroom just for starters. Plus the main point I was making was regarding the EA chargers, not whether or not an ICE car could complete a long trip faster. I will agree that an ICE car can cover long distances faster than even the best EVs like the Tesla, if you do a Canonball style run. I just tossed in the ICE care "for comparison's sake" from a financial standpoint. I'm not interested in going down this rabbit hole with you. Have fun.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> You know you're just playing games here, and what you're posting ignores sleeping, eating, and using the bathroom just for starters.


That's the point most Tesla owners gravitate to, namely, those stops need to be morphed into extended stays, and in that regard, the *EA 50-70kW chargers at 2x charge time yet cheaper than supercharger makes perfect sense*.

It is not that EA's are all over the map, but the fact is that Superchargers are still not as widely available as gas stations, and typical 3500-lb EVs cannot do 600+ miles per charge, any extra charging infrastructures like EA's help. And that's the rabbit hole that current gen EV owners need to navigate around.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> It is not that EA's are all over the map, but the fact is that Superchargers are still not as widely available as gas stations, and typical 3500-lb EVs cannot do 600+ miles per charge, any extra charging infrastructures like EA's help. And that's the rabbit hole that current gen EV owners need to navigate around.


As a Tesla owner, I think it's great that there will be more high speed chargers out there, even though they will be more expensive for Tesla owners than the Tesla Supercharger network. They will also be significantly less common than Superchargers, at least for the next 7+ years. It will be interesting to see how many of the EA locations are close to existing Tesla locations; hopefully they will help to fill in some of the gaps or heavy usage areas for Tesla Superchargers. And for Tesla owners, this is all predicated on Tesla making a CCS adapter available as they have in Europe.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> They will also be significantly less common than Superchargers, at least for the next 7+ years.


wow ...

yeah


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> That's the point most Tesla owners gravitate to, namely, those stops need to be morphed into extended stays, and in that regard, the *EA 50-70kW chargers at 2x charge time yet cheaper than supercharger makes perfect sense*.


 From my experience on a road trip from Colorado to California and back, doubling the time at all charging stops would have added a significant amount of waiting time to my trip.

For about half the stops, doubling the time wouldn't have made a difference, but for the other half, they were typically short stops for a potty break and a snack, call it 15 to 20 minutes, and resulted in little to no time waiting for the charger. If the charging times doubled to 30 to 40 minutes, then I'd be sitting around twiddling my thumbs for an extra 15 to 20 minutes, which would be annoying. Typically, there were 2 of these stops each day.

Also, the longer stops were used to charge the car up to 80%, 90%, or more, which takes a lot longer, 45 minutes to an hour. Tesla typically charges by the kWh, so the time doesn't matter to the cost as the charge rate slows down. This isn't the case with Electrify America, and using EA chargers versus Superchargers would be significantly more expensive over the course of the entire trip.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> From my experience on a road trip from Colorado to California and back, doubling the time at all charging stops would have added a significant amount of waiting time to my trip.
> 
> For about half the stops, doubling the time wouldn't have made a difference, but for the other half, they were typically short stops for a potty break and a snack, call it 15 to 20 minutes, and resulted in little to no time waiting for the charger. If the charging times doubled to 30 to 40 minutes, then I'd be sitting around twiddling my thumbs for an extra 15 to 20 minutes, which would be annoying. Typically, there were 2 of these stops each day.
> 
> Also, the longer stops were used to charge the car up to 80%, 90%, or more, which takes a lot longer, 45 minutes to an hour. Tesla typically charges by the kWh, so the time doesn't matter to the cost as the charge rate slows down. This isn't the case with Electrify America, and using EA chargers versus Superchargers would be significantly more expensive over the course of the entire trip.


My thinking is that the 75kW to 80%/90% is not 2x slower than 125kW, e.g. 125kW can only go up to 50% when charge rate starts to drop off, while 75kW can keep going till, say, 75%, before tampering off.

Parallel networks like EA serve to compliment any existing infrastructure, e.g. while some Superchargers are rationing charge time a nearly EA can relieve some of the congestion.

Realistically, stops more than 20 minutes(assuming no wait) do get annoying without some activities(e.g. dining).


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My thinking is that the 75kW to 80%/90% is not 2x slower than 125kW, e.g. 125kW can only go up to 50% when charge rate starts to drop off, while 75kW can keep going till, say, 75%, before tampering off.
> 
> Parallel networks like EA serve to compliment any existing infrastructure, e.g. while some Superchargers are rationing charge time a nearly EA can relieve some of the congestion.
> 
> Realistically, stops more than 20 minutes(assuming no wait) do get annoying without some activities(e.g. dining).


Keep in mind that the Tesla Superchargers are also being upgraded. Most of them are now capable of up to 150kW charge rate. Even back in June, when we did our road trip, about half of the Superchargers would charge the car at over 140kW. And then there are the V3 Superchargers which can charge at up to 250kW. Today, there are only a few, but that is changing.

We didn't run into any situations where we had to wait for a charger on our trip, but I know it does happen sometimes, especially on high travel days like holidays. The rationing is to a certain charge percentage, usually 80, not a charge time, and it can be overridden by the car owner if desired. We did run into the limiting at one charging station, but since I had only planned on charging up to about 65% there, it wasn't an issue. In any case, having more options like the EA system is only a plus from my perspective, but it would be a secondary choice at this point in time.

When we were on the road trip, we'd only charge up enough to get to our next stop if we weren't stopping for a meal or to sleep. On a number of these stops, the car was charged up before we were ready to go.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Wow .... as expected most real-life arguments are started when all sides talk according to their own universes and do not see how everyone's universe may not be identical.


Even with no changes to the defaults, the difference is only 12 minutes from the numbers I posted, and I stand by all the conclusions I stated. Any comments about those?


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

What is the ETA & miles driven for Raleigh NC to Univ of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA via Tesla best outcome. Was curious Tesla estimated vs my ICE actual in the 440 over the course of a number of trips.

FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Even with no changes to the defaults, the difference is only 12 minutes from the numbers I posted, and I stand by all the conclusions I stated. Any comments about those?


My suggestion is to compare your preferred planner, then Tesla's on board planner, then real life results, e.g. CO****CA round trip, and then report back.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> What is the ETA & miles driven for Raleigh NC to Univ of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA via Tesla best outcome. Was curious Tesla estimated vs my ICE actual in the 440 over the course of a number of trips.
> 
> FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.


There is a trip planner on tesla.com/trips. Plus GregD suggests using another online trip planner. Just plug in your start and end points and compare those estimates with your actual ICE results.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My suggestion is to compare your preferred planner, then Tesla's on board planner, then real life results, e.g. CO****CA round trip, and then report back.


Already done. On my CO to CA round trip in June, I used both the Tesla and abetterrouteplanner the first couple of days. After that, I stopped using the Tesla one since it simply didn't match reality anywhere near as well as abetterrouteplanner.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

bear-avhistory said:


> What is the ETA & miles driven for Raleigh NC to Univ of Pennsylvania Philadelphia PA via Tesla best outcome. Was curious Tesla estimated vs my ICE actual in the 440 over the course of a number of trips.
> 
> FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.


Since you need to pick specific starting and ending points, I randomly selected the Raleigh airport and the Philadelphia Art Museum.

Assuming that you do no stops at all in your ICE car, Google Maps says that you should complete the run in 7 hours, 11 minutes with a total distance of 413 miles. Better have a car with excellent range and a good bladder. 

Running the same trip through abetterrouteplanner (ABRP) for a Model 3 with default settings comes up with a total trip time of 7 hours, 19 minutes with one charging stop of 23 minutes, and a total distance of 407 miles.

It looks like ABRP came up with both a faster and shorter route somehow, such that the additional time for the Model 3 is only 8 minutes more than the ICE car. I don't think that makes much sense, and whatever route the Model 3 takes, the ICE car should be able to take as well.

I'd say that the real difference is the stop for charging, so it's reasonable to say that a Model 3 on your requested route would take 23 minutes longer than an ICE car on your 7+ hour trip.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Already done. On my CO to CA round trip in June, I used both the Tesla and abetterrouteplanner the first couple of days. After that, I stopped using the Tesla one since it simply didn't match reality anywhere near as well as abetterrouteplanner.


The next step then is use abetterrouteplanner to provide realistic number for ICE like a F30. E.g. that 12.5 hours + 3 stops of 30 mnutes for 800+ miles SFO****SEA is around 65mph, F30 n26 actually for some reason has better mpg around 80mph(at least on flat terrains) than 65mph in Comfort mode.

That 14.75 hours from abetterrouteplanner is still 2-2.5 hours (as previously stated) worse than 12+ hours with ICE based on past experience.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> FWIW I travel off hours & make it in one run.


Off hours make big difference esp. going through urban sprawls like LA and such.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

...


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The next step then is use abetterrouteplanner to provide realistic number for ICE like a F30. E.g. that 12.5 hours + 3 stops of 30 mnutes for 800+ miles SFO****SEA is around 65mph, F30 n26 actually for some reason has better mpg around 80mph(at least on flat terrains) than 65mph in Comfort mode.
> 
> That 14.75 hours from abetterrouteplanner is still 2-2.5 hours (as previously stated) worse than 12+ hours with ICE based on past experience.


Trying to compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion again. If you want to do that, Bjorn on Youtube set a 24 hour EV record, and determined that the optimal speed for Model 3 to cover distance as quickly as possible including charging stops was about 90 MPH. Of course, that's rather illegal in the US.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

. . .


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Trying to compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion again. If you want to do that, Bjorn on Youtube set a 24 hour EV record, and determined that the optimal speed for Model 3 to cover distance as quickly as possible including charging stops was about 90 MPH. Of course, that's rather illegal in the US.


Do note that sections of HWY5 in CA, OR, and WA do have 70mph speed limit.

Another fun tidbit for is that, my F30 speedo(and BMW's in general) is usually 3-5mph faster than actual speed, so 80mph is around 75mph actual speed, which CHP is just fine [email protected] speed limit.:thumbup:

And false conclusion or not is up to interpretation. E.g. 90mph with N26 probably can get 800+ miles faster than 12 hours and with same 3 stops, while Model [email protected] probably need to squeeze in another charge, or two?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Trying to compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion again.


Ok so Mr. Bjorn got free charging that day and made 1728 miles with 10 full charge-equivalent of 850kWh, for roughly 500Wh/mile, on his Model 3 LR.

So this publicity event basically went 2x cost than your lofty 40KWh/160miles goal, which is 250Wh/mile. Are you willing to pay 2x?  Now is that compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion? 

https://electrek.co/2019/07/05/tesla-youtuber-breaks-24-hour-electric-car-distance-record/

BTW, remember the Mirai lessee in my group with the free rental + free fuel paid by Toyota? He certainly does not care about fuel efficiency too!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Ok so Mr. Bjorn got free charging that day and made 1728 miles with 10 full charge-equivalent of 850kWh, for roughly 500Wh/mile, on his Model 3 LR.
> 
> So this publicity event basically went 2x cost than your lofty 40KWh/160miles goal, which is 250Wh/mile. Are you willing to pay 2x?  Now is that compare apples and oranges to make a false conclusion?
> 
> ...


If you're going to play, you're going to pay. Gas mileage in ICE cars drops substantially as the speed goes up as well. Do you want to go fast or do you want to go cheap? Again, if you really want to go fast, a car is not the answer.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> If you're going to play, you're going to pay. Gas mileage in ICE cars drops substantially as the speed goes up as well. Do you want to go fast or do you want to go cheap? Again, if you really want to go fast, a car is not the answer.


Understood, amen to "pay to play". It is just that F30 ZF 8AT can be quite fuel efficient, 80mph(ok 75mph actual speed) can still get around 600 miles for 15.85 gallons of AKI 91!

In contrast, Mr Bjorn's publicity stunt exposed a weakness of current gen Tesla, namely, 1-gear drive!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Understood, amen to "pay to play". It is just that F30 ZF 8AT can be quite fuel efficient, 80mph(ok 75mph actual speed) can still get around 600 miles for 15.85 gallons of AKI 91!
> 
> In contrast, Mr Bjorn's publicity stunt exposed a weakness of current gen Tesla, namely, 1-gear drive!


I doubt that the 1-gear drive is the reason for the substantial increase in energy usage as the speed goes up. The way electric motors work, their loss of efficiency with increased RPMs is pretty minimal. I think the primary reason increased speeds have a greater impact on the Tesla than on most ICE cars is because wind resistance represents a greater proportion of the energy required to move the car than with most ICE cars. Therefore, any increase in wind resistance has a much greater impact on the Tesla.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I doubt that the 1-gear drive is the reason for the substantial increase in energy usage as the speed goes up. The way electric motors work, their loss of efficiency with increased RPMs is pretty minimal. I think the primary reason increased speeds have a greater impact on the Tesla than on most ICE cars is because wind resistance represents a greater proportion of the energy required to move the car than with most ICE cars. Therefore, any increase in wind resistance has a much greater impact on the Tesla.


My understanding is that beyond certain rpm(directly proportional to speed with 1-gear), the flat instant torque curve starts to drop as the back EMF(which is proportional to speed) starts to draw down the supply voltage to reduce the net force needed to counteract wind resistance(squared of speed) and the extra weight(also squared of speed) of, say, 4000lb versus 3500lb.

A 2-gear can allow the rpm to stay low at high speed and keep torque at max without too much back EMF. The tradeoff is the extra weight and efficiency loss of the gear box.

Some inquisitive festers probably can provide better explanation than mine.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My understanding is that beyond certain rpm(directly proportional to speed with 1-gear), the flat instant torque curve starts to drop as the back EMF(which is proportional to speed) starts to draw down the supply voltage to reduce the net force needed to counteract wind resistance(squared of speed) and the extra weight(also squared of speed) of, say, 4000lb versus 3500lb.
> 
> A 2-gear can allow the rpm to stay low at high speed and keep torque at max without too much back EMF. The tradeoff is the extra weight and efficiency loss of the gear box.
> 
> Some inquisitive festers probably can provide better explanation than mine.


Back EMF is not supposed to significantly reduce the efficiency of an electric motor as far as I know. It's just an inherent characteristic that allows them to function properly. It regulates the current to match the load, and results in lower torque as the RPMs increase with the lower electricity usage to match. A multi speed gearbox could give a Tesla more power at higher speeds, but it's not like they're particularly slow without it.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

namelessman said:


> Off hours make big difference esp. going through urban sprawls like LA and such.


Agree on off hours thats why I do it. Need to get past DC when the traffic is slack. I average 71mph door to door for the trip. No fuel stops. Fill at start of both out & back runs with 93 octane, normal premium in NC, VA, PA, DE & NJ.

No major kidney issues but a do take a break at times when I drank to much coffee. No fuel at the rest stops. Not really a significant drag on the overall time. Car will run off about 13/14 gallons pumped to make the trip each way. If I am going to the Jersey @ Shore Spring Lake NJ @ 470 miles, my longest drive - will fly over that, I refuel at the the Delaware Travel Plaza on Interstate 95 & going home at the 95/85 split in Petersburg VA.

To be fair the city traffic runs are very short on both ends which can be unusual. My best average city traffic around Raleigh is 22mpg @ 38MPH. I live in the North end & its pretty rural with horse farms & housing subdivisions.









My front yard

Local rush hour traffic sucks, not enough roads & many a two lane, but being retired its a non issue for me

Am north of RDU so my actual mileage starting point is less the the original estimate. Not sure where Philly Art is my destination is the Univ of Penn Medical Center which is a few blocks off Interstate 76. According to Google Map my trip is 400 miles & 6:22 hours ETA.

Actual time runs is usually between 5.40 & 6:00 hours

Any long trip (100+ miles) with the car runs 70 to 72 MPH average it returns 31mpg give or take 1mpg.

FWIW all my BMW coups & convertibles since 2004 have returned right around 31MPG at 70MPH. 330ZHP, 335is, 135is, 435MPPK, 440MPPSK


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> Agree on off hours thats why I do it. Need to get past DC when the traffic is slack. I average 71mph door to door for the trip. No fuel stops. Fill at start of both out & back runs with 93 octane, normal premium in NC, VA, PA, DE & NJ.
> 
> No major kidney issues but a do take a break at times when I drank to much coffee. No fuel at the rest stops. Not really a significant drag on the overall time. Car will run off about 13/14 gallons pumped to make the trip each way. If I am going to the Jersey @ Shore Spring Lake NJ @ 470 miles, my longest drive - will fly over that, I refuel at the the Delaware Travel Plaza on Interstate 95 & going home at the 95/85 split in Petersburg VA.
> 
> ...


My old E39 I6 N/A 5MT did 20mpg city and 30-31mpg hwy. 5th is direct drive.

This F30I4 turbo 8AT is around 25mpg city and 35-38mpg hwy. 7th and 8th are overdrive and those help a lot with mpg at high speed.

Yes plotting long drive to get through urban sprawls is critical!


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> My friends are with no power as well. I thought this could happen in a 3rd world country only.


It does seem that California is aspiring to 3rd world status. California is a good state to be *from*.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> A coworker's power has been out for 2 days now due to PG&E shutoff. His Model 3 ran dry after returning home from a trip and was furloughed since.
> 
> His wife is driving the other iCE, while he rents another ICE in the meantime to get to work. He does plan to tow his Model 3 to closet charging port to recharge.
> 
> It looks like this type of high wind and power shutoff will become common place going forward. My coworker plans to install a generator but PG&E approval will take 3-6 months best case.


Yeah have fun California with your public defecation epidemics, rampant uncontrolled deficit, high speed rail boondoggles, underfunded and very VERY shady pension funds.. you guys have fun and keep voting D. Unfortunately my state has decided to embark down the same path of liberal lunacy (in part due to all the refugees from screwed up deep blue states turning this state blue) so I guess we're in for it too.

I will always have at least one gas burner car for use during emergency/power-outage situations.

I also have a pair of portable generators that can be put in tandem and pump out close to 20 amps so I could put some emergency charge on my Model 3 if I had to.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Yeah have fun California with your public defecation epidemics, rampant uncontrolled deficit, high speed rail boondoggles, underfunded and very VERY shady pension funds.. you guys have fun and keep voting D. Unfortunately my state has decided to embark down the same path of liberal lunacy (in part due to all the refugees from screwed up deep blue states turning this state blue) so I guess we're in for it too.
> 
> I will always have at least one gas burner car for use during emergency/power-outage situations.
> 
> I also have a pair of portable generators that can be put in tandem and pump out close to 20 amps so I could put some emergency charge on my Model 3 if I had to.


Did you measure your battery degradation? Tesla Bjorn is at -6% at 25k miles.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I also have a pair of portable generators that can be put in tandem and pump out close to 20 amps so I could put some emergency charge on my Model 3 if I had to.


What is your mpge with the portable generators?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> What is your mpge with the portable generators?


it's garbage but I don't think I'm going to worry about fuel economy during a zombie apocalypse or during any invasion attempt from California in which I have to fight off hordes of hippies complaining about climate change. It will be scary rifles vs. birkenstocks and soy lattes so I don't think the fight will last very long anyway.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/


This shows that quality continues to improve, that battery/drive-train/locomotion problems are exceedingly rare and that owners love their cars.

It also exhibits that Tesla sucks at QC and should never have fired their QC team.

I imagine that QC at the factory in China is going to be MUCH better. You will be dealing with a more skilled assembly labor force, less "worker dissent" and a factory that is being purpose built for Tesla assembly.

I think that 12 months from now people would prefer getting a Chinese built Model 3 over a domestic one just from a paint/QC perspective.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Did you measure your battery degradation? Tesla Bjorn is at -6% at 25k miles.


Model 3 LR owners in our bldg said their ranges drop to less than 280 miles 100% full charge after V10, 1-year old with 10k miles. These data points are 10% drop, is that worse than Model S battery in first year?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Model 3 LR owners in our bldg said their ranges drop to less than 280 miles 100% full charge after V10, 1-year old with 10k miles. These data points are 10% drop, is that worse than Model S battery in first year?


It's not really likely that the drop is related to the FW delivery as I noticed an 8% drop after a year before I got V10 and updating to V10 did not change it.

Plenty of owners still showing 300+ miles on a full charge.

It's unclear on what the reason is.... whether it is truly a reduction in range or just the BMS having trouble calculating it based on driving/charging habits.

It's also possible that some of the battery modules have slightly degraded and Tesla is taking steps to mitigate this to reduce the effect of more charge cycles.

The battery is warrantied to 70% life for 7 years so I'm not going to lose too much sleep over the loss even though it's somewhat disappointing.

By comparison S/X normally see a loss of 5% in the first year and then very slow degradation after that... with some cars that have over 250,000 miles still showing over 90% of their original rated range.

The Model 3 batteries are supposed to be more sophisticated so not understanding why some owners are seeing "faster" degradation or if it's even real degradation at all or simply BMS not doing a good job of calculating the range.

The biggest real world impact other than maybe spending an extra 20 minutes at superchargers on a 1,000 mile journey is that it will probably affect resale value of the cars somewhat... at least until they all start to equal out after 3-5 years of time. Even a car with a 70% charge would be very valuable for quite a few folks as it would still cover commute and state-wide travel for plenty of people.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> The battery is warrantied to 70% life for 7 years so I'm not going to lose too much sleep over the loss even though it's somewhat disappointing.


There are talks about class action lawsuit, but Tesla commitment is 70% minimum within warranty period/miles, so 90%-100%(or even 70%) retention in a year should be still within spec.

"Model 3 - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity *over the warranty period*. Model 3 with Long-Range Battery - 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity *over the warranty period*."


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> There are talks about class action lawsuit, but Tesla commitment is 70% minimum within warranty period/miles, so 90%-100%(or even 70%) retention in a year should be still within spec.
> 
> "Model 3 - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity *over the warranty period*. Model 3 with Long-Range Battery - 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity *over the warranty period*."


Now the question is how do they determine the 30% loss. Based on the range indicator? That's programmed by Tesla.

The Model S/X degradation report is all based on the range indicator, therefore pretty much useless.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> There are talks about class action lawsuit, but Tesla commitment is 70% minimum within warranty period/miles, so 90%-100%(or even 70%) retention in a year should be still within spec.
> 
> "Model 3 - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity *over the warranty period*. Model 3 with Long-Range Battery - 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity *over the warranty period*."


Well, if it takes a lawsuit then that's what will happen. For starters I don't foresee too many batteries getting below Tesla's 70% threshold if we assume it's based on original rated range. Something unusual would have to be going on with the Model 3 batteries since S/X are seeing very very good performance even with ones that are 5+ years old with tons of miles on them.

if anything Model 3 *should* be better, early degradation numbers notwithstanding.

Perhaps the batteries will degrade 10% in the first year and then about 1% a year after that.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> if anything Model 3 *should* be better, early degradation numbers notwithstanding.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4GexvupJU72hCIGZ2jOFx9Amc/edit#gid=1539079884


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...4GexvupJU72hCIGZ2jOFx9Amc/edit#gid=1539079884


That tiny dataset is laughable.

Tesla almost guaranteed is keeping very extensive battery health data as part of vehicle telematics relayed back to the mothership and knows exactly what is going on with the batteries in these cars.

I'm impressed that you didn't immediately hit that button of yours that the battery warranty is meaningless because Tesla will be bankrupt soon. How much did short sellers lose last week, $1B?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> That tiny dataset is laughable.
> 
> Tesla almost guaranteed is keeping very extensive battery health data as part of vehicle telematics relayed back to the mothership and knows exactly what is going on with the batteries in these cars.
> 
> I'm impressed that you didn't immediately hit that button of yours that the battery warranty is meaningless because Tesla will be bankrupt soon. How much did short sellers lose last week, $1B?


Feel free to laugh at it. It's based on BMS reports.

I have never touched TSLA so who cares. Although Tesla is cooking the books so if you are long, this is a good time to exit. Mark my words.

By the way why is that bankrupt claim from however it comes laughable? Tesla almost went bankrupt last year. They had to put all the Solarcity folks on Model 3 production to survive.

"After diving into the 10-Q, Roth Capital lowers Tesla to a Sell rating from Neutral and assigns a price target of $249 to the EV stock. The firm says Tesla's 10-Q indicates that the gross margin gain in Q3 was driven by one-time items such as warranty adjustments. "


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Feel free to laugh at it. It's based on BMS reports.
> 
> I have never touched TSLA so who cares. Although Tesla is cooking the books so if you are long, this is a good time to exit. Mark my words.
> 
> ...


I am laughing, because you are hilarious.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> I am laughing, because you are hilarious.


I'm quoting Elon Musk who said it under oath. I guess he didn't find it that funny last year.

Also you owe me a 'sorry' as both you and your friend forgothisname told me I'm stupid about Teslas reliability and battery safety / fire / underreported degradation / etc. These are slowly getting proven over time as more data comes online.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> I'm quoting Elon Musk who said it under oath. I guess he didn't find it that funny last year.
> 
> Also you owe me a 'sorry' as both you and your friend forgothisname told me I'm stupid about Teslas reliability and battery safety / fire / underreported degradation / etc. These are slowly getting proven over time as more data comes online.


I don't owe you anything bud. I'm almost positive that if I was bored enough to spend hours tracking down all of your posts, etc., I would be able to tie you to someone who writes for seeking alpha or business insider or some other toilet paper rag.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Now the question is how do they determine the 30% loss. Based on the range indicator? That's programmed by Tesla.
> 
> The Model S/X degradation report is all based on the range indicator, therefore pretty much useless.


Owners should be able to track actual miles from point A to B(e.g. daily commutes). That can then be correlated to range indicator(right on or +/-%). My impression is that Model S/X degradation is also gauged by actual miles rather than range indicator(not 100% sure).


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> I don't owe you anything bud. I'm almost positive that if I was bored enough to spend hours tracking down all of your posts, etc., I would be able to tie you to someone who writes for seeking alpha or business insider or some other toilet paper rag.


Go for it. Will be a complete waste of your time with the outcome: nope. Let me know how much time you spent on it so I can laugh hard.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Owners should be able to track actual miles from point A to B(e.g. daily commutes). That can then be correlated to range indicator(right on or +/-%). My impression is that Model S/X degradation is also gauged by actual miles rather than range indicator(not 100% sure).


"For warranty claims specific to Battery capacity, the replacement Battery will be in a condition appropriate to the age and mileage of the vehicle sufficient to achieve or exceed the minimum Battery capacity for the remainder of the warranty period of the original Battery."

"note that the vehicle's range estimates are an imperfect measure of Battery capacity because they are affected by additional factors separate from Battery capacity. "

"The measurement method used to determine Battery capacity, and the decision of whether to repair, replace, or provide reconditioned or re-manufactured parts, and the condition of any such replaced, reconditioned or re-manufactured parts, are at the sole discretion of Tesla"


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> "For warranty claims specific to Battery capacity, the replacement Battery will be in a condition appropriate to the age and mileage of the vehicle sufficient to achieve or exceed the minimum Battery capacity for the remainder of the warranty period of the original Battery."
> 
> "note that the vehicle's range estimates are an imperfect measure of Battery capacity because they are affected by additional factors separate from Battery capacity. "
> 
> "The measurement method used to determine Battery capacity, and the decision of whether to repair, replace, or provide reconditioned or re-manufactured parts, and the condition of any such replaced, reconditioned or re-manufactured parts, are at the sole discretion of Tesla"


Yes that is Tesla's own contract language, but Model S/X owners should measure based on their actual miles per charge(100% to 0%) to figure out if battery is still within contracted %.

Now is Tesla's measurement method publicly disclosed?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Yes that is Tesla's own contract language, but Model S/X owners should measure based on their actual miles per charge(100% to 0%) to figure out if battery is still within contracted %.
> 
> Now is Tesla's measurement method publicly disclosed?


In general it's not recommended to drive it down to 0% since the car may stall at 10% on the road.

They can read it out from the BMS. If that result is questionable, they have battery testers.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

By the way anyone can read out the BMS with some aftermarket OBD tools. https://sites.google.com/view/scanmytesla/home


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> I don't owe you anything bud. I'm almost positive that if I was bored enough to spend hours tracking down all of your posts, etc., I would be able to tie you to someone who writes for seeking alpha or business insider or some other toilet paper rag.


It is doubtful folks from seeking alpha(etc, etc) will be interested in a thread like this, where a handful of open minded and clear headed festers discuss about cars. There are some who attempted to run political campaigns to stir up misdirected debates, and/or uninformed consumers who feel insecure(or angry?) about their choices, but those posts are ceremonially filtered out by inquisitive minds.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Tesla sales now says there is no US delivery until mid to late Dec. The local storage lot inventory also drops a lot. The sales tag line is that virtually all Model 3's are now shipped to Europe. 

This aligns with Tesla's SEC filing that Q3 2019 US sales drops by $2B, to $3B+, compared to Q3 2018(40% drop). The sales insisted there will be no upcoming discounts, but my guess is that there will be another US price drops in Q1(or maybe even Q4 end).


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Tesla sales now says there is no US delivery until mid to late Dec. The local storage lot inventory also drops a lot. The sales tag line is that virtually all Model 3's are now shipped to Europe.
> 
> This aligns with Tesla's SEC filing that Q3 2019 US sales drops by $2B, to $3B+, compared to Q3 2018(40% drop). The sales insisted there will be no upcoming discounts, but my guess is that there will be another US price drops in Q1(or maybe even Q4 end).


I think they will do the usual price drop after the tax credit disappears.

Overseas shipping volume is high although not extreme. 6 boats left in October. 3 of them are heading to Europe. 
They had 6 boats in August as well. 7 in May and in February.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This video was March 2018, have these out-of-warranty costs gone down, esp. for Model 3?

Model S:
door handle - $1k each
brake rotors + pads + rear parking - $6k after Tesla waived $2k of labor
drive unit - $6k

This one [email protected]+ miles paid $24k repair costs for 9 door handles($1k each), 4 shocks, rear axles, tail-light condensation, 4 rotors, one drive unit($6k each)

Another guy paid $3500 for rear half shaft replacement.

$1200 for big screen.

#3800 for media control unit.

DC-DC control repair is $2100 part + $450 labor.

Plus $150/kWh current price replacement cost.

These Tesla repairs are not cheap out of warranty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This video was March 2018, have these out-of-warranty costs gone down, esp. for Model 3?

Model S:
door handle - $1k each
brake rotors + pads + rear parking - $6k after Tesla waived $2k of labor
drive unit - $6k

This one [email protected]+ miles paid $24k repair costs for 9 door handles($1k each), 4 shocks, rear axles, tail-light condensation, 4 rotors, one drive unit($6k each)

Another guy paid $3500 for rear half shaft replacement.

$1200 for big screen.

#3800 for media control unit.

DC-DC control repair is $2100 part + $450 labor.

Plus $150/kWh current price replacement cost.

These Tesla repairs are not cheap out of warranty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq5c4jGR2gM


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> This video was March 2018, have these out-of-warranty costs gone down, esp. for Model 3?
> 
> Model S:
> door handle - $1k each
> ...


 I guess we'll see about the Model 3 once they start coming out of warranty. My expectation is that a Model 3 will have a similar relationship to a Model S regarding parts and repair costs that a BMW 3 series has to a 7 series.

So, how much do you think repairs would be to a 7 year old 7 series with 200k miles? HInt, there's a reason that 7 series depreciate like a rock. Actually, I don't think too many 7 series even make it to 200k miles before being taken to the wreckers.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> This video was March 2018, have these out-of-warranty costs gone down, esp. for Model 3?
> 
> Model S:
> door handle - $1k each
> ...


A number of the parts above are available aftermarket. You can get a halfshaft for $250, Power Stop front and rear brake pads and rotors for $265 for all four corners, and parking brake pads for $39. There's also an aftermarket door handle rebuild kit that is supposed to much more durable than stock for $175. I expect that the aftermarket for the Model 3 will be much larger than that for the Model S due to the much greater number of Model 3s being sold.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

These aftermarket prices are not too bad. Will those aftermarket repairs affect warranty?

There are other Model S owners with 6-7 drive units swapped under warranty, hopefully those are not recurring issues in Model 3.

Another Model 3 owner said $9k+ of tires for 130k miles, but those are sports summer tires that some BMW owners pay for too.



GregD said:


> A number of the parts above are available aftermarket. You can get a halfshaft for $250, Power Stop front and rear brake pads and rotors for $265 for all four corners, and parking brake pads for $39. There's also an aftermarket door handle rebuild kit that is supposed to much more durable than stock for $175. I expect that the aftermarket for the Model 3 will be much larger than that for the Model S due to the much greater number of Model 3s being sold.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I guess we'll see about the Model 3 once they start coming out of warranty. My expectation is that a Model 3 will have a similar relationship to a Model S regarding parts and repair costs that a BMW 3 series has to a 7 series.
> 
> So, how much do you think repairs would be to a 7 year old 7 series with 200k miles? HInt, there's a reason that 7 series depreciate like a rock. Actually, I don't think too many 7 series even make it to 200k miles before being taken to the wreckers.


In my mind it is Tesla's great achievement to convince buyers to pay 7-series prices for Model S. The current Model S/X(and high-end Model 3) prices have dropped to normalize with the rest of market, wiping out chunks of resale values in the process. The next front to normalize is the repair cost.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Coworkers are looking into used Model S(private or Tesla), those prices are not too bad and probably hold better than ICEs, but their thoughts are that buying a 5-7 year old Model S is mainly for DD/utility, similar to a reliable(hopefully) Accord/Camry, instead of a Audi/BMW/MB of similar ages. 

Given the big price cuts on brand new Model S/X's, the resale prices of Model S should trend down a bit further, but the repair costs(e.g. drive units, batteries) are big worries in their minds.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

*"Tesla***8217;s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest"*

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/market-evolution.html


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

*"Tesla's Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest"*

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/market-evolution.html


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

paranoidroid said:


> *"Tesla's Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest"*
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/market-evolution.html


Short arguments are kind of evaporating as well as far as "sustained profitability" goes... they are covering like crazy in the last 30 days.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> *"Tesla***8217;s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest"*
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/market-evolution.html


Aham. And how do you explain that BMW's revenues are increasing while Tesla's are falling?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> *"Tesla's Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest"*
> 
> https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/market-evolution.html


That is a great article, providing detailed breakdowns of early adopters. This is against a backdrop of Tesla Q3 2019 US sales drops by $2B, to $3B+, compared to Q3 2018(40% drop).

So while Tesla is busy grabbing early adopters in non-US markets, it will be interesting to see Tesla's plan in US next.

"Tesla is *just beginning to move beyond the early adopter-stage* and will need to expand across new demographics if it wants to keep growing. Continued success now depends on widespread adoption of electric vehicles in areas that are only beginning to see them for the first time. "


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Watch out.... Ford Mach e is committed to taking up some space in the EV market really soon.

This ought to hit Tesla hard :
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/15...otos-price-leak-website-range-design-electric


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

acoste said:


> Aham. And how do you explain that BMW's revenues are increasing while Tesla's are falling?


He skipped the part where some of the recent month sales are up between 6-9 % and 2% up overall worldwide.

Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> Watch out.... Ford Mach e is committed to taking up some space in the EV market really soon.
> 
> This ought to hit Tesla hard :
> https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/15...otos-price-leak-website-range-design-electric


More competition means more choices for consumers, and that's a good thing.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> He skipped the part where some of the recent month sales are up between 6-9 % and 2% up overall worldwide.
> 
> Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


Model 3 does have a draw on 3-series customers, but it is yet to be seen how sustainable that trend is in coming quarters esp. in US market.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

namelessman said:


> More competition means more choices for consumers, and that's a good thing.


Agreed

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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

Apparently this is trending on TMC









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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

After a long and tedious R & D project.









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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> Apparently this is trending on TMC


The glass does hold without shattering(as it no breaking into lots of small pieces), but does laminated glass perform just the same anyway?


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The glass does hold without shattering(as it no breaking into lots of small pieces), but does laminated glass perform just the same anyway?


With laminated glass, I think more of the window would have crazed, but other than that would probably have performed similarly. Of course, most cars only have laminated glass on the windshield, and a steel ball thrown at a side or rear window would go right through it.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> With laminated glass, I think more of the window would have crazed, but other than that would probably have performed similarly. Of course, most cars only have laminated glass on the windshield, and a steel ball thrown at a side or rear window would go right through it.


There are cars with laminated side windows, e.g. Lexus ES, Cady ATS, some of the Mesarati's. Laminated glass blocks both UVA and UVB so it saves a tint job.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> There are cars with laminated side windows, e.g. Lexus ES, Cady ATS, some of the Mesarati's. Laminated glass blocks both UVA and UVB so it saves a tint job.


 Like I said, "most". The use of laminated glass on side windows is more common than I thought however. Here's a link to a list that includes everything from Ford F-150s to Kia Optimas using laminated glass on some of the side or back windows - https://www.aaa.com/AAA/common/AAR/files/Laminated-Glass-Vehicle-List.pdf I think it would be nice if all the windows on a car were laminated; I wonder what the additional cost would be.


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## Vision33r (Dec 30, 2019)

I'm new to the forum but I've owned 4 BMWs and still owns a E90 328i Xdrive and Tesla Model 3.

I don't plan on getting rid of my 328i yet because the Model 3 is not a great winter car. The battery really drains faster in the winter. I get probably 1/2 of the range when its below 40F. 

I really hope that one day a new battery tech comes out or there's a charger everywhere so I can charge easily. You really can't go very far in the winter with battery of any size. EVs just not ideal for cold climate.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Vision33r said:


> I'm new to the forum but I've owned 4 BMWs and still owns a E90 328i Xdrive and Tesla Model 3.
> 
> I don't plan on getting rid of my 328i yet because the Model 3 is not a great winter car. The battery really drains faster in the winter. I get probably 1/2 of the range when its below 40F.
> 
> I really hope that one day a new battery tech comes out or there's a charger everywhere so I can charge easily. You really can't go very far in the winter with battery of any size. EVs just not ideal for cold climate.


To get half range in winter driving, you must not be preheating the car while it's plugged in at home, and your trip length must be relatively short. I've done a couple of longer drives when the temperature was between 0 and 20 degrees Farenheit, and the reduction in range has been more like 20%. The worst I've seen is when I didn't preheat and only drove it about 15 miles. That consumed 30 miles of range.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

Vision33r said:


> I'm new to the forum but I've owned 4 BMWs and still owns a E90 328i Xdrive and Tesla Model 3.
> 
> I don't plan on getting rid of my 328i yet because the Model 3 is not a great winter car. The battery really drains faster in the winter. I get probably 1/2 of the range when its below 40F.
> 
> I really hope that one day a new battery tech comes out or there's a charger everywhere so I can charge easily. You really can't go very far in the winter with battery of any size. EVs just not ideal for cold climate.


I***8217;ve owned mine for a full winter season and I feel that you are exaggerating a bit.

In short commuting I see a reduction of about 30% when the car is driven cold with no preheating when it is plugged in.

I took a trip to Aspen which involved 150 miles of driving over the course of 2.5 hours and made it home with 20% of the battery.

If you are complaining there is not enough range in the winter then I assume that you either have the small size battery or you do some really long distance driving regularly.


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## Vision33r (Dec 30, 2019)

I had 270mi of range before I leave on Saturday. I drove about 70mi of distance and return home and had only 135mi of range left. Of course, this is because had heat running inside the car and the car was parked in an indoor garage at a mall. Ambient temps probably in the upper 40s. 

I'm not exaggerating one bit, just these are typical usage that I'm not trying to save energy just using the car like a regular car. So I think EVs aren't suitable for long winter driving as the range is cut short depending on the temperature and possibly wind condition as it can hurt range with a lot of wind friction.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Vision33r said:


> I had 270mi of range before I leave on Saturday. I drove about 70mi of distance and return home and had only 135mi of range left. Of course, this is because had heat running inside the car and the car was parked in an indoor garage at a mall. Ambient temps probably in the upper 40s.
> 
> I'm not exaggerating one bit, just these are typical usage that I'm not trying to save energy just using the car like a regular car. So I think EVs aren't suitable for long winter driving as the range is cut short depending on the temperature and possibly wind condition as it can hurt range with a lot of wind friction.


Thanks for posting your experience of getting half the range in cold weather, so 270 miles of range is Model 3 LR after v10 update? How many miles on your battery so far?

Your experience matches with those at work who took their Model 3's to Tahoe ski trips(temp 20F-ish early morning), and they switched back to ICEs for subsequent trips after enthusiasm wore off.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

namelessman said:


> Your experience matches with those at work who took their Model 3's to Tahoe ski trips(temp 20F-ish early morning), and they switched back to ICEs for subsequent trips after enthusiasm wore off.


Maybe these so called "coworkers" didn't realize the large number of supercharger stations all along the route from the Bay Area to Tahoe. In fact, a round trip doesn't require much time in them at all and conveniently located - I know at least 6 model 3 owners now who do this route and none of them have mentioned wishing they were in an ICE. I know the shorts are hurting really badly these days but it's comical how far you're stretching the "coworkers" story.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

paranoidroid said:


> Maybe these so called "coworkers" didn't realize the large number of supercharger stations all along the route from the Bay Area to Tahoe. In fact, a round trip doesn't require much time in them at all and conveniently located - I know at least 6 model 3 owners now who do this route and none of them have mentioned wishing they were in an ICE. I know the shorts are hurting really badly these days but it's comical how far you're stretching the "coworkers" story.


Different people use their tools at hand differently, so your coworkers with Model 3 ok with this route do not mean other Model 3 owners prefer the same.

And honestly post#3776's map is not supporting your cause, but probably it is hard for Tesla fans to realize.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

I did a full Tahoe trip recently with a diesel X5 without filling it up. That thing has over 500mi range in this weather at 75mph. Feels definitely safer in case I get stuck in the snow for couple of days.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

paranoidroid said:


> Maybe these so called "coworkers" didn't realize the large number of supercharger stations all along the route from the Bay Area to Tahoe. In fact, a round trip doesn't require much time in them at all and conveniently located - I know at least 6 model 3 owners now who do this route and none of them have mentioned wishing they were in an ICE. I know the shorts are hurting really badly these days but it's comical how far you're stretching the "coworkers" story.


Indeed it is very tempting to go short here. I have been more conservative and haven't touched TSLA yet but might join the club. Overpriced on every metric.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Indeed it is very tempting to go short here. I have been more conservative and haven't touched TSLA yet but might join the club. Overpriced on every metric.


As stated previously, a good understanding of Tesla products is quite helpful.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I did a full Tahoe trip recently with a diesel X5 without filling it up. That thing has over 500mi range in this weather at 75mph. Feels definitely safer in case I get stuck in the snow for couple of days.


There are EV owners that eagerly want to prove a point, and there are EV owners that understand it is needless to prove anything, and just use the tools the way they see fit.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

San Luis Obispo is apparently a choke point with long waits, and its charging ports can't sustain full speeds when fully utilized.

And cold weather with heater on and ranges cut in half like at Tahoe.

And PG&E rolling power shutdown that can turn off fuel sources at home.

These seem to be nagging issues with EV ownership these days.

My thinking is that EV tech and infrastructure really need another 5-10 more years to improve to hit a spec like:

500-600 miles of range
3500lb, F30/G20-size sedan
0-60 5 to 6 seconds
350 miles of range charged in 5 minutes, with battery warranty 10 years/100k [email protected]% capacity

https://jalopnik.com/heres-the-main-problem-with-teslas-supercharger-network-1840110802


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is a new term: Range Enhanced Auto Charging BEV.

Basically i3 Rex is such a vehicle, and this article suggests Tesla to build one. :thumbup: 90 miles of pure EV and 400 miles of extended range for $28000, that can be a hot seller!

For sure those Model 3 owners that were/are stuck at San Luis Obispo will consider such a Tesla Range Enhanced BEV, right?!?

2019 i3 Rex now has 150 miles of EV range, and 50 miles of extended range with 2.4 gallons of gasoline. So BMWAG can increase that tank to 6-8 gallons, for 100-150 miles of extended range.

https://insideevs.com/news/355552/28000-tesla-400-mile-range/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> San Luis Obispo is apparently a choke point with long waits, and its charging ports can't sustain full speeds when fully utilized.
> 
> And cold weather with heater on and ranges cut in half like at Tahoe.
> 
> ...


I think we need to redefine what range means. Tesla optimizes their cars for EPA test and the cars can barely reach those numbers on the highway where range really matters. Porsche Taycan can easily go farther than rated range at highway speeds.

Range at a constant 75mph is more meaningful. Or range at 75mph in 20F weather with heater on.

Here is how E-Tron performs in cold weather compared to the non-raven Model X (so both cars have induction motors):

"
Trip to Copper Mountain
Round trip distance: 240 miles
Lots of elevation gain (several 3000ft climbs and descents)
Sub zero temperatures on 50% of the drive (-35F at one point WTF?)
Driving speeds typically 50-70 mph
Similar efficiency in both vehicles

Tesla Model X
watts / mile: 0.405

Audi Etron
watts / mile: 0.414
"

https://rennlist.com/forums/taycan-...n-and-don-t-worry-about-the-taycan-range.html


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I think we need to redefine what range means.


Maybe Elon should help out Tesla fans(quoted from article in post#3783):

"Range extenders are an awesome answer to the question of providing affordable EVs to the masses while offering great range to meet all of an owner's driving requirements. Truly, the main virtue which range extenders lack is the Elon Effect. *If Elon Musk said "Make it so!* All of our base model cars and SUVs will offer a range extender," then it would become acceptable and then truly "every vehicle could have the opportunity to be electric.""


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Tesla optimizes their cars for EPA test and the cars can barely reach those numbers on the highway where range really matters. Porsche Taycan can easily go farther than rated range at highway speeds.


Real world data and experience is gradually accumulating in real time and customers(being honest with themselves) start comparing products independent of manufacturer's claims. This thread can be a great place to share those data and experience.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Someone forwarded this thread to me, this sounds like Tesla owners being honest with themselves:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-range.172858/

"I never expected to get the quoted WLTP *range of 329 ]miles on my M3P*, but on the other hand I never imagined for a minute that there would be any conditions in this country that would *bring the range down to significantly under 200 miles*, especially when I***8217;m trying to be gentle with my right foot."

"And the proper winter hasn't even started!

This is why after living with an EV since 2015, and done 55k EV miles I've come to the conclusion we still need to keep the petrol hybrid on the driveway.

Unless your a true eco warrior EVs in some situations are still a compromise too far. Those situations are not common, but when they do arise it seems mad your paying a premium for an EV compared to a combustion car but having a worse experience.

*Its like paying for a buissness class ticket but than told you have to stand up for the flight whilst those who paid economy gets a seat!*"


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The coworker with Model X tried to buy CHAdeMO adapter in spite of lifetime free supercharging, but the item is currently sold out at shop.tesla.com.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is interesting, Sony Vision S.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/06/sony-shocks-announces-electric-car/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> This is interesting, Sony Vision S.
> 
> https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/06/sony-shocks-announces-electric-car/


Yep. I have a lot more trust in a Sony car even if they have never made a vehicle.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Yep. I have a lot more trust in a Sony car even if they have never made a vehicle.


MT has an article on this too. It is unclear if Sony aspires to build the whole car, or just the electronics for other EV manufacturers.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/sony-vison-s-concept-electric-car-playstation-tesla/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

My gut feel is that BMWAG is prudent to pursue hybrid approaches:

https://europe.autonews.com/automak...ng-demand-diverse-multifunctional-powertrains


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> MT has an article on this too. It is unclear if Sony aspires to build the whole car, or just the electronics for other EV manufacturers.
> 
> https://www.motortrend.com/news/sony-vison-s-concept-electric-car-playstation-tesla/


I think they just want to create the electronics. Producing an electric car, or any car for that matter, is a massive effort and I don't think Sony has the applicable technologies for it. They'd be starting from scratch and would have to play catch up big time.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Consumer Reports surveyed their readers and found that the Tesla Model 3 is the most satisfying car made. The Tesla Model S and the Model X also made the top 10. The ranking is based on the percentage of owners that said they'd buy or lease the same car again. The Model 3 came in first at 92%.


1. Tesla Model 3
2. Porsche 911
3. Genesis G90
4. Chevrolet Corvette
5. Tesla Model S
6. Toyota Avalon
7. Kia Stinger
8. Chevrolet Bolt
9. Toyota Prius
10. Dodge Challenger

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-named-most-satisfying-car-consumer-reports-2019-2


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I think they just want to create the electronics. Producing an electric car, or any car for that matter, is a massive effort and I don't think Sony has the applicable technologies for it. They'd be starting from scratch and would have to play catch up big time.


Agreed, Sony probably will play to their core strength and stay with electronics including autonomous driving components.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Consumer Reports surveyed their readers and found that the Tesla Model 3 is the most satisfying car made. The Tesla Model S and the Model X also made the top 10. The ranking is based on the percentage of owners that said they'd buy or lease the same car again. The Model 3 came in first at 92%.
> 
> 
> 1. Tesla Model 3
> ...


In the mean time, April 2019 CR auto issue does not recommend any of the Tesla, and rates Model 3 and S single down arrow, and Model X double down arrow. So Tesla owners do uphold the tradition of simultaneously being extremely satisfied, yet suffering from below-average reliability.

In a couple of months the April 2020 CR will be out, so the latest Tesla reliability ratings will be revealed.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Agreed, Sony probably will play to their core strength and stay with electronics including autonomous driving components.


"Sony says it worked with Bosch, Continental, Genetex, Nvidia, and Magna"

Magna manufactures complete vehicles: BMW Z4, 5 series, Toyota Supra, Jaguar E-Pace, I-Pace, Mercedes G-Class.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> "Sony says it worked with Bosch, Continental, Genetex, Nvidia, and Magna"
> 
> Magna manufactures complete vehicles: BMW Z4, 5 series, Toyota Supra, Jaguar E-Pace, I-Pace, Mercedes G-Class.


That is smart move from Sony, it is unlikely Sony's chassis will have issues experienced by Tesla. And Sony can get big 3 battery(including Panasonic). Bosch probably supplies inverter, Nvidia supplies the self driving chip sets, etc, etc.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is a good video of the techs in Vision S, e.g. lots of CMOS image sensors, expansive dash consoles(much more refined than Model 3's).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x26q3TqSS68


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

And Sony's webpage for Vision S:

https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/vision-s/


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## lemon530e (Jan 18, 2020)

*The Model 3 wins*

After driving a 530e for a little over a year I can tell you I wish I had purchased the model 3 instead. This 530e has been in and out of service 8 times and still drives horribly due to regenerative breaks.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> .... and until BMW is dominated by SUV sales like X3, and keeps growing sales.
> 
> Now Model Y will be available this year, so let's see if BMW can hold to its customers.


I expect that there will be a bit of a rebound in sales for the 3 series with the introduction of the G20 model. I'll be curious to see how much.


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## Vision33r (Dec 30, 2019)

lemon530e said:


> After driving a 530e for a little over a year I can tell you I wish I had purchased the model 3 instead. This 530e has been in and out of service 8 times and still drives horribly due to regenerative breaks.


I really think if you are tired of normal car problems then go try a Tesla out. The car is just amazing to drive and of all the new cars I've owned this is the least problematic in initial quality.

The only problem is the winter driving range is not so good, I get about 60-70% range in winter. So instead of the 300mi range I have, I get about 225 in the winter with the heater on. This means I need to charge more often. For what it's worth it beats every BMW in this class in terms of performance.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

lemon530e said:


> After driving a 530e for a little over a year I can tell you I wish I had purchased the model 3 instead. This 530e has been in and out of service 8 times and still drives horribly due to regenerative breaks.


What issue(s) brought the car in service 8 times? Dual transmissions are complicated, an alternative is extended range like i3's gasoline powered electric generator.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Vision33r said:


> I really think if you are tired of normal car problems then go try a Tesla out. The car is just amazing to drive and of all the new cars I've owned this is the least problematic in initial quality.
> 
> The only problem is the winter driving range is not so good, I get about 60-70% range in winter. So instead of the 300mi range I have, I get about 225 in the winter with the heater on. This means I need to charge more often. For what it's worth it beats every BMW in this class in terms of performance.


We got another Elon believer here. Signed up to praise Tesla. Just like your friend with the nonexistent lemon 530e. Could be the same person.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> What issue(s) brought the car in service 8 times? Dual transmissions are complicated, an alternative is extended range like i3's gasoline powered electric generator.


Check out his original thread. The story doesn't add up.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Vision33r said:


> I really think if you are tired of normal car problems then go try a Tesla out. The car is just amazing to drive and of all the new cars I've owned this is the least problematic in initial quality.
> 
> The only problem is the winter driving range is not so good, I get about 60-70% range in winter. So instead of the 300mi range I have, I get about 225 in the winter with the heater on. This means I need to charge more often. For what it's worth it beats every BMW in this class in terms of performance.


You forgot to tell how amazing FSD is. I will believe every single word you say I promise. https://twitter.com/AlanZavari/status/1218254336477712384


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Vision33r said:


> The only problem is the winter driving range is not so good, I get about 60-70% range in winter. So instead of the 300mi range I have, I get about 225 in the winter with the heater on. This means I need to charge more often. For what it's worth it beats every BMW in this class in terms of performance.


225 miles of range is pretty good, the Model 3 owners at work after a year see 270 miles 100% charge, and that drops 30%-50%@Tahoe driving.

Tesla is supposedly already at forefront of battery tech, but the tech itself(owned by Panasonic) is still not advancing fast enough to make EV a compelling alternative to ICE.


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## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

I think the autopilot recognised the trailer as a road going up... 

(post # 3827 link,)


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> I think the autopilot recognised the trailer as a road going up...
> 
> (post # 3827 link,)


AI/ML/FSD are tough problems to solve, and human spatial regonition and vision and perception are still light years ahead of any man-made system.

My impression is that some form of inference is good enough for FSD, but maybe real-time training is needed. BTW, the bleeding edge training solution conumes 15kW, and requires a radiator-size cooling system. Just imagine a 75kWh battery can only power such a system for 5 hours, leaving 0kW for winter heating/moving 4000lb+ around.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> 225 miles of range is pretty good, the Model 3 owners at work after a year see 270 miles 100% charge, and that drops 30%-50%@Tahoe driving.
> 
> Tesla is supposedly already at forefront of battery tech, but the tech itself(owned by Panasonic) is still not advancing fast enough to make EV a compelling alternative to ICE.


 There are plenty of Tesla drivers and owners out there who disagree regarding whether or not an EV is a compelling alternative to ICE. I bought a Model 3 because I liked the way it drove and functioned better than any of its ICE competitors. After over a year of ownership and 19k miles, I like it better now than when we first bought it, and it's actually an even better car now than when we bought it due to increased power and speedier Supercharging.

As for your "Model 3 owners at work", I think there is a lot of spin in your statements. There might be a few LR Model 3s out there that are down to 270 miles of range after 1 year, but they're a rarity, not the norm. As for losing range going to Tahoe, that would be due primarily to the altitude gain. Both EVs and ICE cars lose a significant amount of range when going up mountains. Some of the range reduction could be due to temperature as well if you're talking about going to Tahoe during the winter; EVs do lose a noticeable amount of range due to low temperatures while ICE cars lose very little range due to low temperatures.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> There are plenty of Tesla drivers and owners out there who disagree regarding whether or not an EV is a compelling alternative to ICE. I bought a Model 3 because I liked the way it drove and functioned better than any of its ICE competitors. After over a year of ownership and 19k miles, I like it better now than when we first bought it, and it's actually an even better car now than when we bought it due to increased power and speedier Supercharging.
> 
> As for your "Model 3 owners at work", I think there is a lot of spin in your statements. There might be a few LR Model 3s out there that are down to 270 miles of range after 1 year, but they're a rarity, not the norm. As for losing range going to Tahoe, that would be due primarily to the altitude gain. Both EVs and ICE cars lose a significant amount of range when going up mountains. Some of the range reduction could be due to temperature as well if you're talking about going to Tahoe during the winter; EVs do lose a noticeable amount of range due to low temperatures while ICE cars lose very little range due to low temperatures.


The Model 3 owners at work are OK with their Model 3, as that is not their only cars, so they do choose to use their tools as needed and fit to the tasks.

At the same time, they do not spin and praise Tesla like many do, and adapt to improve the user experience of their tools, e.g. carry adapters to bypass crowded "speedier" superchargers, use ICE to head to Tahoe(or have another ICE in the group), learn to use evtripplanner, etc, etc. As of the "updated" range, they just take it as is and move on.

As for the performance boost, does it come with free battery capacity increase too?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This came out a few days ago, from all accounts by Tesla enthusiasts, BMW M should have been doomed, so why did BMW M sales break record?

Which side is spinning and which side is telling the truth?

https://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1364025/mmmarvelous-bmw-m-sets-sales-record/


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> This came out a few days ago, from all accounts by Tesla enthusiasts, BMW M should have been doomed, so why did BMW M sales break record?
> 
> Which side is spinning and which side is telling the truth?
> 
> https://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1364025/mmmarvelous-bmw-m-sets-sales-record/


Why should BMW M be doomed? I just checked and there are 11 M series BMWs sold in the U.S. today. How many of those does Tesla have a model to compete with? Now, why are you personally spinning so hard?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Why should BMW M be doomed? I just checked and there are 11 M series BMWs sold in the U.S. today. How many of those does Tesla have a model to compete with? Now, why are you personally spinning so hard?


BMW says US M sales was 44442 in 2019, so that is 121+ a day, are u saying your projection of 2020 M sales to be 10% of 2019 sales?

Is there a link to 11 M sales/day data?

What is the breakdown of Tesla Performance US sales number in 2019?


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> BMW says US M sales was 44442 in 2019, so that is 121+ a day, are u saying your projection of 2020 M sales to be 10% of 2019 sales?
> 
> Is there a link to 11 M sales/day data?
> 
> What is the breakdown of Tesla Performance US sales number in 2019?


 You misunderstood my post. There are 11 different M models that BMW sells in the U.S. currently, from the M2 to the M8 and 9 more in between. Tesla only has 3 comparable models, the S, X, and 3 Performance versions. Therefore, BMW has a larger percentage of the market covered than Tesla.

As far as I know, Tesla has never released a breakdown of how many Performance model cars have been sold versus other models. Estimates that I've seen of Tesla's total sales for 2019 are about 190,000. While I think quite a few of those are performance models, I think it could be as low as 10% or as high as 30% which is a pretty wide variance.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> You misunderstood my post. There are 11 different M models that BMW sells in the U.S. currently, from the M2 to the M8 and 9 more in between. Tesla only has 3 comparable models, the S, X, and 3 Performance versions. Therefore, BMW has a larger percentage of the market covered than Tesla.
> 
> As far as I know, Tesla has never released a breakdown of how many Performance model cars have been sold versus other models. Estimates that I've seen of Tesla's total sales for 2019 are about 190,000. While I think quite a few of those are performance models, I think it could be as low as 10% or as high as 30% which is a pretty wide variance.


Got it, so your take is fair comparison should be Model 3 performance head-to-head with M3/M4(e.g.).

There seems to be no breakdown of M variants from BMW neither, so both sides just selectively disclose data that supports their causes.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Got it, so your take is fair comparison should be Model 3 performance head-to-head with M3/M4(e.g.).
> 
> There seems to be no breakdown of M variants from BMW neither, so both sides just selectively disclose data that supports their causes.


I agree with both of your statements.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I agree with both of your statements.


Also let's "unspin" the statement that BMW has 11 M models to compete.

Currently M GmbH has 4 M cars, namely, M2(coupe), M4(coupe, vert), *M5 sedan*, M8(coupe, vert, GC), with 7 variants total.

BMW says M GmbH US sale is 44442.

There are also 4 M performance cars, including X3M, X4M, X5M, X6M.

The total sales of M and M performance together was 135,829 in 2019.

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1686533

Out of all these M and M performance models, only M5 is a sedan that competes with high-spec Model S.

And it looks like Model X also competes with X5M and X6M, right?

So for now it looks like M GmbH is churning along just fine amidst the Tesla onslaught.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Also let's "unspin" the statement that BMW has 11 M models to compete.
> 
> Currently M GmbH has 4 M cars, namely, M2(coupe), M4(coupe, vert), *M5 sedan*, M8(coupe, vert, GC), with 7 variants total.
> 
> ...


 Go to bmwusa.com, select Build your own, then select M, and it shows 11 different M models. Now you can try to make up your own definitions, but I'll go with what BMW says. Also, you're lumping coupes and convertibles together which I don't think makes much sense since they definitely have different markets they appeal to. Tesla has nothing to compete with in the convertible market today.

Your 135,829 number is a worldwide number; we were discussing U.S. sales numbers. BMW has a significant advantage in the number of markets where BMW cars are sold compared to Tesla.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Go to bmwusa.com, select Build your own, then select M, and it shows 11 different M models. Now you can try to make up your own definitions, but I'll go with what BMW says. Also, you're lumping coupes and convertibles together which I don't think makes much sense since they definitely have different markets they appeal to. Tesla has nothing to compete with in the convertible market today.
> 
> Your 135,829 number is a worldwide number; we were discussing U.S. sales numbers. BMW has a significant advantage in the number of markets where BMW cars are sold compared to Tesla.


The spinning can go either way, and obviously done by both sides, e.g. while Tesla has no coupe/vert to compete with BMW, at the same time, BMW has no M/M performance sedan that competes with Tesla Model 3, right?

So in 2020, BMW will have new M3 sedan to compete with Tesla Model 3 Performance, and Tesla will have Model Y(high spec ones) to compete with X3M/X4M(right?)

As far as bmwusa.com's layout, at one point the categories were 2-series, 3-series, ...., and then the non-M and M and M performance under 3-series(e.g.) as variants of the series(which are the models per my interpretation).

The latest layout has been shock and awe to throw the number of configurations at customers. One can surely selectively interpret anyway one wants. 

And as far as spinning of 135829 versus 44442 numbers, at least BMW provides some geographical breakdowns, while Tesla is adamant to spin worldwide numbers, likely to de-emphasize their small number of market segments right now.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Wow, this is still happening


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Wow, this is still happening


There is a known issue in 8/2018, is this affected unit a pre-8/2018 production?

https://ww.electrek.co/2018/08/13/tesla-investigates-model-3-bumper-broke-off/#is


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> There is a known issue in 8/2018, is this affected unit a pre-8/2018 production?
> 
> https://ww.electrek.co/2018/08/13/tesla-investigates-model-3-bumper-broke-off/#is


I thought this is a newer car otherwise it would have already fallen off.

The guy didn't say the production date. It has a March sticker. Bulletin says only June 2018 is affected.
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/tsbs/2018/MC-10153849-9999.pdf


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This RAV4 hybrid ([email protected]$30k) can be a worthy competitor to Model Y(and X3 PHEV too).

It seems to me Tesla will run into more competition with Toyota than with the German permium brands.

https://www.kbb.com/articles/car-news/2021-toyota-rav4-plug-in/


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> This RAV4 hybrid ([email protected]$30k) can be a worthy competitor to Model Y(and X3 PHEV too).
> 
> It seems to me Tesla will run into more competition with Toyota than with the German permium brands.
> 
> https://www.kbb.com/articles/car-news/2021-toyota-rav4-plug-in/


No it can***8217;t.

Despite your bizarre obsession with hybrids and hydrogen cars very few people interested in a full BEV would settle for a hybrid or weirdo mobile that runs on hydrogen.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> No it can't.
> 
> Despite your bizarre obsession with hybrids and hydrogen cars very few people interested in a full BEV would settle for a hybrid or weirdo mobile that runs on hydrogen.


I have a bizarre obsession with this hybrid: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_918_Spyder


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> No it can't.
> 
> Despite your bizarre obsession with hybrids and hydrogen cars very few people interested in a full BEV would settle for a hybrid or weirdo mobile that runs on hydrogen.


The obsession(and spinning?) is all relative. 

Nonetheless manufacturers like to shoot themselves, e.g. BMW G20 hybrid is $3500+ more expensive than non-hybrid, maybe BMWNA will have extra incentive for that, or else it will create a price barrier.


----------



## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

namelessman said:


> This RAV4 hybrid ([email protected]$30k) can be a worthy competitor to Model Y(and X3 PHEV too).
> 
> It seems to me Tesla will run into more competition with Toyota than with the German permium brands.
> 
> https://www.kbb.com/articles/car-news/2021-toyota-rav4-plug-in/


+1
Ironically, the second generation RAV4 EV (see photo below) sourced its AC induction motor and battery pack from Tesla.

RAV4 PHEV will be well received in the marketplace. It wouldn't be surprising if within a year from introduction, RAV4 PHEV outsells the Prius Prime. Prius Prime is currently the best selling plug-in vehicle in the U.S. from a real automaker. The regular non plug-in RAV4 Hybrid is currently the best selling hybrid vehicle in the U.S. and outsold the regular Prius last year.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

gkr778 said:


> +1
> Ironically, the second generation RAV4 EV (see photo below) sourced its AC induction motor and battery pack from Tesla.
> 
> I do agree with you that the RAV4 PHEV will be well received in the marketplace. It wouldn't be surprising if within a year from introduction, RAV4 PHEV outsells the Prius Prime. Prius Prime is currently the best selling plug-in vehicle in the U.S. from a real automaker.


Yes 2nd gen RAV4 EV(2012-2014) was limited production, like less than 3000 units?

This latest RAV4 PHEV is more practical than Prius Prime, and price(projected) is also good.

If my F30 TC blows up and BMWNA refuses to fix, then this RAV4 PHEV will be a good candidate to consider.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

This is one of the coolest car ad ever.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=537EwXTdipM


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

gkr778 said:


> +1
> Ironically, the second generation RAV4 EV (see photo below) sourced its AC induction motor and battery pack from Tesla.
> 
> RAV4 PHEV will be well received in the marketplace. It wouldn't be surprising if within a year from introduction, RAV4 PHEV outsells the Prius Prime. Prius Prime is currently the best selling plug-in vehicle in the U.S. from a real automaker. The regular non plug-in RAV4 Hybrid is currently the best selling hybrid vehicle in the U.S. and outsold the regular Prius last year.


So Toyota is getting their AC motor and battery from Tesla but Tesla is not a "real" automaker?

OK champ.

Make sure you go read Tesla Q4 earnings results when you want to puff your chest out about how Toyota is doing. (spoiler alert, Tesla handily beat earnings and Toyota missed earnings estimates).


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> So Toyota is getting their AC motor and battery from Tesla but Tesla is not a "real" automaker?
> 
> OK champ.
> 
> Make sure you go read Tesla Q4 earnings results when you want to puff your chest out about how Toyota is doing. (spoiler alert, Tesla handily beat earnings and Toyota missed earnings estimates).


Toyota haven't reported their earnings yet.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> So Toyota is getting their AC motor and battery from Tesla but Tesla is not a "real" automaker?


Tesla is a real tech company, not necessary a real automaker. 

The best product from Tesla illustrates this fact very well.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Tesla is a real tech company, not necessary a real automaker.
> 
> The best product from Tesla illustrates this fact very well.


When you produce hundreds of thousands of cars a year, you're about as real an automaker as it gets.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> When you produce hundreds of thousands of cars a year, you're about as real an automaker as it gets.


My view is that Tesla produces hundreds of thousands of tech toys that its customers crave for, and that is a great receipt for TSLA momentum.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My view is that Tesla produces hundreds of thousands of tech toys that its customers crave for, and that is a great receipt for TSLA momentum.


I bought my Model 3 for transportation from place to place, and for an enjoyable driving experience. I think that is why most people have bought Teslas, not because they are "tech toys". While Teslas certainly have plenty of tech toys in them, so do most cars today. That said, I will agree that Teslas have more tech toys than most and that some are quite unique compared to all other car manufacturers offerings.


----------



## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

voip-ninja said:


> So Toyota is getting their AC motor and battery from Tesla


No. RAV4 EV production ended in 2014, as did Toyota's use of Tesla as a supplier.


----------



## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

acoste said:


> Toyota haven't reported their earnings yet.


Correct. TMC FY2020 3Q financial results will be released February 6.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

gkr778 said:


> No. RAV4 EV production ended in 2014, as did Toyota's use of Tesla as a supplier.


With only 2600 2nd gen RAV4 EV built, this car was really a test run.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Rented a diesel G20 in Europe this time. No EV can compete with that in terms of road tripping. Did 500 miles on one tank, driving between 80 and 130mph.


----------



## Dio///M (Jul 12, 2015)

"Tesla remotely disables Autopilot on used Model S after it was sold

Tesla says the owner can’t use features it says ‘they did not pay for"

.

.

. What the hell! So basically you can buy a used tesla and there's no certainty that you'll have some of the features a while later... 

. 

. Lol... Tesla


Sent from my SNE-LX1 using Tapatalk


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## karzrus (Jun 4, 2008)

Dio///M said:


> "Tesla remotely disables Autopilot on used Model S after it was sold
> 
> Tesla says the owner can't use features it says 'they did not pay for"
> 
> ...


So Tesla wants to resell the options on a car they already sold. Why not disable the whole car and make the second owner buy everything off them? Maybe that's the next step?


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Dio///M said:


> "Tesla remotely disables Autopilot on used Model S after it was sold
> 
> Tesla says the owner can***8217;t use features it says ***8216;they did not pay for"


It is unclear from jalponik article, so did Tesla object to the new owner not paying for these features, or was it the original owner who got FSD/AP without paying?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> It is unclear from jalponik article, so did Tesla object to the new owner not paying for these features, or was it the original owner who got FSD/AP without paying?


There was a period of time where Tesla added AP to used cars in order move them faster.

For anyone who is buying into the hysteria, if you paid for AP and sell your car to someone else Tesla does not deactivate the features. This appears to be one of a handful of "one off" situations in which possibly the AP was never even originally paid for and Tesla caught it in an audit.

Since Tesla advertised to the 3rd party dealer who THEY sold the car to that the car had AP and AP was functional when the transaction was completed, Tesla should do the honorable thing and turn the feature back on.

Your version of events though in which an evil Tesla tries to rip off customers by getting a double dip on paid for features sure plays better with the Tesla hating crowd.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> *Your version of events *though in which an evil Tesla tries to rip off customers by getting a double dip on paid for features sure plays better with the Tesla hating crowd.


My post#3864 said the following, so what specific version of events is your post referring to?



namelessman said:


> It is unclear from jalponik article, so did Tesla object to the new owner not paying for these features, or was it the original owner who got FSD/AP without paying?


Also in another thread the following question was raised too.



namelessman said:


> *The car is supposed to be auctioned, and later sold, as-is, correct?* If so it will not make sense Tesla can delete feature OTA.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> There was a period of time where Tesla added AP to used cars in order move them faster.
> ....
> Since Tesla advertised to the 3rd party dealer who THEY sold the car to that the car had AP and AP was functional when the transaction was completed, Tesla should do the honorable thing and turn the feature back on.


It is unclear if there are contract clauses that say "free" AP on used cars from Tesla is only for the first used car buyer.

Also it is unclear if the auction listing of the Model S with AP/FSD in question had clear disclosure that AP/FSD will not follow the car after auction.

If either of the above 2 disclosures is not in effect, then Tesla should not just arbitrarily disable those features after the sales are final.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So the jalponik article now has screenshots of window sticker that showed EAP + FSD, as well as signed auction disclosure form that showed no intent to de-content the car after auction.

The used car dealer also commented that in his anecdotal experience(of selling dozens of used Tesla's yearly), this was not the first occasion that Tesla deleted features after sales.

Some Tesla enthusiasts may try to spin this as one-off, and/or make up versions of events that fit their mindsets, but these incidents(if factual) should be strongly objected by Tesla owners to keep Tesla honest.

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-remotely-removes-autopilot-features-from-customer-1841472617


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> So the jalponik article now has screenshots of window sticker that showed EAP + FSD, as well as signed auction disclosure form that showed no intent to de-content the car after auction.
> 
> The used car dealer also commented that in his anecdotal experience(of selling dozens of used Tesla's yearly), this was not the first occasion that Tesla deleted features after sales.
> 
> ...


If the purchaser has that type of proof, it's blatant breech of contract, and Tesla won't be able to get away with it. From what I've seen over the years, every manufacturer and dealer out there occasionally does something stupid like this. The difference is that Tesla gets massive publicity for any possible wrong, whereas rare instances like this from other manufacturers and dealers are generally ignored by the media.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> If the purchaser has that type of proof, it's blatant breech of contract, and Tesla won't be able to get away with it. From what I've seen over the years, every manufacturer and dealer out there occasionally does something stupid like this. The difference is that Tesla gets massive publicity for any possible wrong, whereas rare instances like this from other manufacturers and dealers are generally ignored by the media.


This specific Telsa mishap is drowned by media covering TSLA shooting up and down., and is mainly discussed(rightfully so) at Tesla forums.

Nonetheless this sets a bad precedence that other manufacturers can follow, and that's bad for everyone.

E.g. imagine someone buys a used F30 328i, and then a dealer visit can strip factory tune to downgrade to 320i(same engine in both 320i and 328i except a software tune).


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> This specific Telsa mishap is drowned by media covering TSLA shooting up and down., and is mainly discussed(rightfully so) at Tesla forums.
> 
> Nonetheless this sets a bad precedence that other manufacturers can follow, and that's bad for everyone.
> 
> E.g. imagine someone buys a used F30 328i, and then a dealer visit can strip factory tune to downgrade to 320i(same engine in both 320i and 328i except a software tune).


 This really isn't anything new and there is no precedent being set. Plenty of manufacturers including BMW have put the wrong software on their cars over the years. The bottom line is that assuming the story is true as presented, Tesla is in breech of contract, doesn't have a leg to stand on, and will have to fix it.

I actually have personal experience with BMW screwing up the programming on a car. I have a 2003 330i ZHP. The early ones like mine had some issues with the engine programming and when the dealer tried to fix it, they put the regular 330i programming on it. I noticed it fairly quickly since the redline was 300RPM less. I took it back to the dealer and they insisted that it had the right software on it.

What I ended up doing was taking it to a dyno where I videoed it being run up to redline and top speed; the ZHP package also raised the top speed limiter to 155 MPH. When I showed the video to the dealer, they finally admitted that they had put the wrong software on it, but to fix it, they had to send the processor to BMW corporate to get it programmed properly which took about a week with the car down.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> This really isn't anything new and there is no precedent being set. Plenty of manufacturers including BMW have put the wrong software on their cars over the years. The bottom line is that assuming the story is true as presented, Tesla is in breech of contract, doesn't have a leg to stand on, and will have to fix it.
> 
> I actually have personal experience with BMW screwing up the programming on a car. I have a 2003 330i ZHP. The early ones like mine had some issues with the engine programming and when the dealer tried to fix it, they put the regular 330i programming on it. I noticed it fairly quickly since the redline was 300RPM less. I took it back to the dealer and they insisted that it had the right software on it.
> 
> What I ended up doing was taking it to a dyno where I videoed it being run up to redline and top speed; the ZHP package also raised the top speed limiter to 155 MPH. When I showed the video to the dealer, they finally admitted that they had put the wrong software on it, but to fix it, they had to send the processor to BMW corporate to get it programmed properly which took about a week with the car down.


Your experience was incorrect ECU integration level within new car warranty, right?

Your case has up to the end of new car warranty to fix, at all costs, or BMW can lemon/buyback at minimal cost to customers.

Similarly my F30 went through several iterations of alarm HW + SW updates as guinea pigs, there was zero worry on my part that it would work(and it did).

What Tesla did this round is very different from incorrect software update.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Your experience was incorrect ECU integration level within new car warranty, right?
> 
> Your case has up to the end of new car warranty to fix, at all costs, or BMW can lemon/buyback at minimal cost to customers.
> 
> ...


It is not as different as you state.

AP existing on the car is simply a software switch. The car (not the owner) has the switch set based on whether AP was ever legally purchased. Tesla have over the years occasionally done things like accidentally enabling AP for cars where nobody ever purchased it, they catch this later in an audit and patch it out and the person who never paid for AP loses it.

In this case Tesla indicated to the dealer that the car had AP, then later determined it had never been purchased and turned it off. As Greg said, legally Tesla has no leg to stand on.

Alternatively let's say that you have a Tesla where AP was accidentally turned on by Tesla. You quickly sell the car to a new owner and advertise it has working AP since you can demonstrate it.

Then Tesla catches the error and turns it off. Is the new buyer of the car entitled to the feature that was never actually purchased by anyone?

What Tesla needs to do is add the purchase/contract information about AP to the vehicle information screen so it shows when AP was purchased.... if AP is turned on due to a software error, free trial period, etc., then it should be apparent that it has not yet been purchased.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> It is not as different as you state.


The main difference(even among software updates) is really that Tesla can do OTA to add/delete major features on a sold car, and this incident surely sets a precedence by deploying OTA after final sales of a used car.

Greg's example of botched service visit is in a different class of problems, and the only resemblance to this Tesla's incident is software related(and that covers a lot of things these days).


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The main difference(even among software updates) is really that Tesla can do OTA to add/delete major features on a sold car, and this incident surely sets a precedence by deploying OTA after final sales of a used car.
> 
> Greg's example of botched service visit is in a different class of problems, and the only resemblance to this Tesla's incident is software related(and that covers a lot of things these days).


The only difference I see between the two is that Teslas can be updated OTA without bringing them to the dealer while my car had to be brought to the dealer. From a legal standpoint, I don't see why it would matter whether the wrong software was installed OTA or at the dealer.


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

I purchased a 2015 tesla model s 6 months ago and it has all the features it had originally and yes it has autopilot.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The upcoming(2021?) i4 EV looks quite interesting.

https://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1370887/bmw-previews-electric-gran-coupe-with-concept-i4/

It is possible the BMW crowd that moved to Tesla will return to BMW, and keep talking about this i4. :bigpimp:


----------



## SteveinArizona (Sep 12, 2016)

namelessman said:


> The upcoming(2021?) i4 EV looks quite interesting.
> 
> https://www.bimmerfest.com/news/1370887/bmw-previews-electric-gran-coupe-with-concept-i4/
> 
> It is possible the legends of BMW owners who move to Tesla will return to BMW. and not stop talking about this i4. :bigpimp:


I think you are partially right. We will not stop talking about the hideousness of the I4 grill, especially on a car that doesn't need a big grill for cooling. Just plain ugly. I would overpay for a Tesla before buying the new I4. And I love my 530e.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

SteveinArizona said:


> I think you are partially right. We will not stop talking about the hideousness of the I4 grill, especially on a car that doesn't need a big grill for cooling. Just plain ugly. I would overpay for a Tesla before buying the new I4. And I love my 530e.


I totally agree about the i4 grill being hideous. It is so bad that I wouldn't buy the car because of it. They should have just copied the G20's nose.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

It will be of interest to see if the monster grill serves any real function. 

E.g. can it be for a radiator that cools the space age AI/ML self-driving? 

In fact one of the latest learning solutions from local small business(aka startup) does burn 5kW and require a radiator to cool!


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLsM5n288qk&feature=emb_logo


 I've driven a Model 3 with the 19s, and it doesn't surprise me that they handle and stop a little bit better in the dry than the 18s. I've heard they're pretty good in the wet but not so good in the snow and ice, but that is again anecdotal. In any case, a set of PS4s tires will just kill them in the dry.

In any case, your contention that "Tesla uses inflated ECO tires on their cars, you can't compare consumption numbers 1:1 to other cars. These ECO tires are pretty slippery in rain. Tesla doesn't care about your safety. All they care about marketing." is obviously false.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Again, you're going with anecdotal info. In the right circumstances, any tire will hydroplane and any EV can get over its rated mileage given the right circumstances. Like you, I could find anecdotal information showing just about anything I want, but that doesn't make it right or meaningful.
> 
> Tirerack's ratings show the Michelin Primacy MXM4 as roughly in the middle of the Grand Touring All-Season category with its wet performance somewhat above the middle of the range. At least this is an average of a whole bunch of anecdotal opinions.
> https://www.tirerack.com/tires/surveyresults/surveydisplay.jsp?clearSize=true&type=GTAS&VT=


Note that none of the other cars hydroplaned in that section.

You also ignored how many owners blame these tires on TMC in that thread

Additionally tirerack uses correct tire pressures


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Tesla's standard mode is kind of a medium regen that automatically adjusts based on speed. The 41-45PSI ECO tires are the tires that Tesla provides and the pressures that it recommends and are the same tires that get used in regular tests of the cars. For EPA testing, don't you think a car should be tested in the configuration that the manufacturer delivers to the customer and which it recommends?
> 
> My LR AWD Model 3 is rated for 310 miles of range. On a warm day and keeping speeds to 65MPH or less on level ground, I have seen a rate of power usage which would work out to 310 miles or more on a number of occasions. I've never driven it more than 290 miles without recharging since I don't want to take a chance of running out of electricity and always leave a buffer. On the day when I drove it 290 miles, it showed I had another 50 miles of range left, but I had dropped 5,000 feet of altitude on the drive, it was a nice day, and speeds were mostly under 65.
> 
> Consumer Reports in their test of the Model 3 exceeded the rated range. Do you think that their results are bogus? There have been a number of Youtube videos over the years where Tesla owners have exceeded the rated range on their cars as well. Do you think they're all lying?


I want to add here that consumer reports reached 350mi with default regen setting and 310mi with weak regen setting.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> I want to add here that consumer reports reached 350mi with default regen setting and 310mi with weak regen setting.


Default being the key term there. Default manufacturer settings are what are used by most organizations, including the EPA, when testing a vehicle. The default setting is called "Standard"; the weak regen setting is called "Low", and Tesla specifically recommends it for use in snow or icy conditions. I don't think too many owners switch into Low for any other reason.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Note that none of the other cars hydroplaned in that section.
> 
> You also ignored how many owners blame these tires on TMC in that thread
> 
> Additionally tirerack uses correct tire pressures


I've proven you to be factually incorrect when you stated, "Tesla uses inflated ECO tires on their cars, you can't compare consumption numbers 1:1 to other cars. These ECO tires are pretty slippery in rain. Tesla doesn't care about your safety. All they care about marketing." If you want to keep beating that dead horse, have fun, but I'm done.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Default being the key term there. Default manufacturer settings are what are used by most organizations, including the EPA, when testing a vehicle. The default setting is called "Standard"; the weak regen setting is called "Low", and Tesla specifically recommends it for use in snow or icy conditions. I don't think too many owners switch into Low for any other reason.


But it makes EPA numbers not comparable. Companies who decide to use lower default regen wlll get lower EPA numbers. 
If you look at the EPA city cycle you notice how important regen is. And this test weights 55% in the final results. While highway cycle I shared earlier is weighted at 45%. (but even the highway cycle is slow compared to a road trip) EPA rated range has little to do what a car can reach on a road trip where range matters.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> But it makes EPA numbers not comparable. Companies who decide to use lower default regen wlll get lower EPA numbers.
> If you look at the EPA city cycle you notice how important regen is. And this test weights 55% in the final results. While highway cycle I shared earlier is weighted at 45%. (but even the highway cycle is slow compared to a road trip) EPA rated range has little to do what a car can reach on a road trip where range matters.


 What a silly argument. EPA, like Consumer Reports, and most other organizations that test cars, do so in the configuration recommended by the manufacturer. The results are therefore reflective of how the vehicle owners will normally use their cars and that is what the EPA is testing. Other manufacturers are free to set up their cars as they like, Tesla has no advantage or disadvantage in this regard.

As for the EPA's rated range, Teslas and other EVs all have to go with the same standards that are supposed to reflect the overall average usage of cars. If you don't like the EPA's standards, you should talk to them. In any case, Teslas generally do better on the highway than most other EVs due to being more aerodynamic. The base Taycan is the only EV that I know of with a better Cd than the Tesla Model 3 or S, and it's a pretty small difference at .22 to .23. The higher spec Taycan Turbo S has a Cd of .25.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

An hour ago Tesla factory was deemed non-essential business by Alameda County Public Health and will be shutdown to protect its 10k workers. 

This decision went against Musk's intent to keep factory running.


----------



## Vision33r (Dec 30, 2019)

I posted a comparison between my E90 and Model 3 on reddit and basically people disagreed with me but I anticipated that since most people didn't have any seat time on both cars.

My main complaint was that the Model 3 wasn't as good as a driver's oriented car as my E90. The main thing was the fuel savings, torque, and tech. But other than those things the Model 3 wasn't polished enough vs my E90.

I'm trying to be as unbiased as possible but it's not possible for Tesla fans who are upset with my review.

I mentioned these things:

- The fake leather seats just doesn't feel high quality enough once you sit on it long enough, cost cutting measure.

- Heated steering wheel should be included to save energy and not rely on electric heater fan. I'm ok driving with just the heated wheel/seats on my E90 during winter, usually warms me up. The Tesla I have to use heat it is so darn cold inside without heat. 

- Handling of the car is very tricky, the car can perform but the electronic stability is too intrusive and I never had one car that I had to fight ESP this much. On a Model 3 Performance with track mode, it's too dangerous to drive on regular roads. The amount of torque the car puts down I had the car almost on it's side pulling out of a turn.

- The rear view mirror is too tiny, I know the screen has rear camera but it's difficult to drive without the rear view mirror which is eye level. Having to check the center screen makes you lower your eye. I often just drive with the 3D map which lets me see what cars are around me instead.

I'm not saying it's a bad car, just overall not a good driver's car. It's designed for commuting not for road enthusiast. Comparing to my E90 which lacks the HP but the handling is much more predictable and better turn in than the Model 3 which doesn't like sharp angle turns it will pull you back slows you down even though it has a lot of grip with AWD. I'm constantly fighting the ESP.


----------



## gkr778 (Feb 8, 2013)

namelessman said:


> An hour ago Tesla factory was deemed non-essential business by Alameda County Public Health and will be shutdown to protect its 10k workers.


For a pyramid scheme like Tesla, being deemed a "non-essential business" should be an honor! :rofl:


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

gkr778 said:


> For a pyramid scheme like Tesla, being deemed a "non-essential business" should be an honor! :rofl:


Statements like this are what upset people. I have zero problem with Vision33r's comments. He did an honest comparison. Some things I agree with and others I disagree with but the opinions are his. However, calling Tesla a pyramid scheme is a huge stretch. You might disagree with the way the company is run or not like their financials. However, I have a hard time viewing it as a pyramid scheme. Musk is on an aggressive growth plan. It may be too aggressive and the company may not survive but that doesn't make it a pyramid scheme.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> However, calling Tesla a pyramid scheme is a huge stretch.


 By definition a pyramid scheme needs new customers to pay returns/gains to previous customers, so Tesla does not look like a pyramid scheme in the context of retail customers.

From another perspective, Tesla does raise rounds after rounds of money to finance its operations, and Tesla does use money raised in current rounds to repay principal and pay interest from previous rounds, like in a pyramid scheme.

Tesla, and any company that keeps seeking new money to pay off existing obligation, e.g. US govt(?!?), can get into trouble when new investors do not bite.

The chance of that happening to Tesla is a lot higher than US govt.


----------



## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> By definition a pyramid scheme needs new customers to pay returns/gains to previous customers, so Tesla does not look like a pyramid scheme in the context of retail customers.
> 
> From another perspective, Tesla does raise rounds after rounds of money to finance its operations, and Tesla does use money raised in current rounds to repay principal and pay interest from previous rounds, like in a pyramid scheme.
> 
> ...


Tesla is best viewed as an aggressive growth company with all of the positives and negatives that implies. Tesla could be very profitable if they weren't aggressively growing but they would be run over by other companies later on. They are in a grow or die situation. Their margins are good but they have to grow crazy fast before their advantages erode away. The danger is that this crazy growth strategy leaves them vulnerable to cashflow issues. Both Apple and Google have tried to buy them in the past so I guess that is the downside scenario.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> Tesla is best viewed as an aggressive growth company with all of the positives and negatives that implies. Tesla could be very profitable if they weren't aggressively growing but they would be run over by other companies later on. They are in a grow or die situation. Their margins are good but they have to grow crazy fast before their advantages erode away. The danger is that this crazy growth strategy leaves them vulnerable to cashflow issues. Both Apple and Google have tried to buy them in the past so I guess that is the downside scenario.


Tesla's current(depressed?) mkt cap of 80B prices itself out from acquisition. Tesla is priced as a high growth tech stock, and drops more than other tech stocks with huge cash moats.


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## SR22pilot (Apr 16, 2016)

namelessman said:


> Tesla's current(depressed?) mkt cap of 80B prices itself out from acquisition. Tesla is priced as a high growth tech stock, and drops more than other tech stocks with huge cash moats.


I totally agree. However, if things turned bad the stock would drop. At $100/share it would be well below what has been offered in the past.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

SR22pilot said:


> I totally agree. However, if things turned bad the stock would drop. At $100/share it would be well below what has been offered in the past.


Yes $100 and around $20B should be good price points for acquisition.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

acoste said:


> BMW with its own battery chemistry has pretty good degradation results.
> 
> Insideevs guessed 4% degradation for their i3 at 69k mi.
> Tesla Bjorn's test shows 10% degradation for a 22kWh i3 after 62k miles.
> ...


Adding to the list: https://insideevs.com/news/405885/tesla-model-s-battery-after-146000-miles/

Model S 70D 146k mi 5 years (1000 cycle) degradation: 15%
Total lifetime consumption: 59675kWh
That is 59.7kWh/146k mi = 409Wh/mi (includes vampire drain)
Battery efficiency: 59675/63298 = 94.3% (this includes self discharge when parked)


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Vision33r said:


> I posted a comparison between my E90 and Model 3 on reddit and basically people disagreed with me but I anticipated that since most people didn't have any seat time on both cars.
> 
> My main complaint was that the Model 3 wasn't as good as a driver's oriented car as my E90. The main thing was the fuel savings, torque, and tech. But other than those things the Model 3 wasn't polished enough vs my E90.
> 
> ...


Lot of people buy it for the mission and for Elon. Since they don't understand technical details and are often not car guys, they believe everything what Elon says. It is impossible to reach them with different opinions. Specially now that the share price is in the sky. This gives them more confidence.


----------



## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Lot of people buy it for the mission and for Elon. Since they don't understand technical details and are often not car guys, they believe everything what Elon says. It is impossible to reach them with different opinions. Specially now that the share price is in the sky. This gives them more confidence.


Absurd. Virtually everyone who came from a BMW and went to a Tesla is a "car guy". Sure, it's not as refined interior wise as a BMW but driver experience? Way better. Handles better. Faster. What more does a "car guy" want?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Absurd. Virtually everyone who came from a BMW and went to a Tesla is a "car guy". Sure, it's not as refined interior wise as a BMW but driver experience? Way better. Handles better. Faster. What more does a "car guy" want?


I drove one and don't share your opinion. My stick shift with proper suspension is much more fun.

Consumer Reports results don't support it either. Despite the immediate torque it scores lower in driving experience. People enjoy driving the less powerful and mostly automatic BMWs more.

https://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showpost.php?p=13279497&postcount=3893


----------



## agada (Mar 30, 2020)

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----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

iX3 will come with NMC811 according to Electrek
https://electrek.co/2020/05/21/bmw-...of-ix3-ev-crossover-on-new-flexible-platform/


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> iX3 will come with NMC811 according to Electrek
> https://electrek.co/2020/05/21/bmw-...of-ix3-ev-crossover-on-new-flexible-platform/


Since BMW isn't bringing the iX3 to America, I don't find it to be very interesting.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Report: BMW has a 1,006-horsepower, all-electric M5 in the works

https://electrek.co/2020/05/29/report-bmw-has-a-1006-horsepower-all-electric-m5-in-the-works/


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## Dave 20T (Apr 7, 2013)

The June 25, 2020 issue of the Wall Street Journal had an article about Tesla having the most problems of any car manufacturer. It said that Tesla previously wouldn't cooperate with car registration data so that a rating could not be calculated but that they used data from 35 states where Tesla couldn't obstruct data. It had about double the number of defects compared to the average.

The same issue had a front page article about ebay sending goon squads to retaliate against a blog writer who wrote negative things about ebay. Oh no, Tesla may send their hit squad for retribution.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

You guys can keep taking shots at Tesla but if you owned one you would think differently. My wife has been driving one for a year now and she never wants to go back to a gas powered car. She has been driving BMW***8217;s for a long time but they cannot compared to a Tesla. 
Whenever she drives my 535i she comments that it is a dog compared to her model 3. I drive her car whenever possible because they are the real ultimate driving machine and an ICE car can never come close to the driving experience of a Tesla.


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## Dave 20T (Apr 7, 2013)

mull6 said:


> You guys can keep taking shots at Tesla but if you owned one you would think differently.


Maybe, but maybe not.

I am wary of Tesla for a few reasons.

1. The company has no history of building cars. There is no vault of institutional knowledge. Similarly, when an established company comes out with a totally new car, often there are problems. This may improve with a second generation Model 3 unless the second generation changes are purely cosmetic.

2. Electric car technology is relatively new. Almost certainly there are bugs just like early version of fuel injection.

3. The design philosophy of Tesla may be cosmetic, not sporty driving. The exterior door handles are not a good design to me. How do they work? Electric motors to extend the exterior handle? If so, an extra motor to break down.

Even worse is the large touch screen in the center. That is the worse kind of design. Though I haven't used it, I've used touch screens in rental cars. You have to take your eyes off the road. In contrast, the 1980's Saab 900's had large heating/AC controls that you could operate with mittens and by feel. Touch screens must be designed by office workers, not real drivers.

All these issues can be eventually fixed so don't throw in the towel for Tesla.

The J D Power data is also not that bad. Even though Tesla was worse than any other car company, on average, there were fewer than 3 problems on every car. Of course, that could mean only one problem in one car and 5 problems in another Tesla. The problems are also in the first 90 (?) days so cars with non-robust parts and good ratings could wear out in 3-5 years while cars with more initial problems but robust parts could last longer.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Responses in blue.



Dave 20T said:


> Maybe, but maybe not.
> 
> I am wary of Tesla for a few reasons.
> 
> ...


 With our model 3, in the first year and 8 months of ownership while putting 24k miles on the car, we've had a total of 5 problems. 4 of them existed when the car was delivered and included 3 minor cosmetic issues and a headlight that water got into. Tesla took care of the headlight and 2 of the cosmetic issues with a visit to the service center. For the last cosmetic issue, they ordered the part, and when it came in, one of their "Rangers" came to my home and installed it.

The only other problem that has cropped up has been excessive wear on the outside edges of the front tires due to too much toe in. This took about 12k miles to show up. Tesla wouldn't fix it under warranty, so I took it to an alignment shop that fixed it for $60. For the first couple of years and 24k miles, I'd actually say our Tesla is one of the most reliable new cars I've ever owned. In fact, the only new car I've ever owned that had significantly fewer problems in a similar time/distance is a 2005 Lotus Elise. Who'd have thought.

:drive:


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

Dave 20T said:


> Maybe, but maybe not.
> 
> I am wary of Tesla for a few reasons.
> 
> ...


Again until you own one you have no idea of what your missing. The large touch screen displays the speed in the upper left corner which is just as easy to see if not easier than a speedometer that you have to look down to see.

The model 3 does not have motorized door handles. The other alleged problems you point out are weak at best. I will say it again my wife and I have been driving BMW's for 15 years and have really enjoyed them and I'm still driving a 535I right now. But nothing that I have ever driven comes close to a Tesla and my next car will be a model S.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

GregD said:


> Responses in blue.
> 
> With our model 3, in the first year and 8 months of ownership while putting 24k miles on the car, we've had a total of 5 problems. 4 of them existed when the car was delivered and included 3 minor cosmetic issues and a headlight that water got into. Tesla took care of the headlight and 2 of the cosmetic issues with a visit to the service center. For the last cosmetic issue, they ordered the part, and when it came in, one of their "Rangers" came to my home and installed it.
> 
> ...


I agree so far the Tesla cars we have owned were very reliable. We bought a 2015 model S more than a year ago with 40k miles on it. After a year of driving it and putting 20k on it one door handle malfunctioned and the mobile service fixed it for $150.00. We now own a 2018 model3 that has been trouble free and the best car we have ever owned.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Responses in blue.
> 
> With our model 3, in the first year and 8 months of ownership while putting 24k miles on the car, we've had a total of 5 problems. 4 of them existed when the car was delivered and included 3 minor cosmetic issues and a headlight that water got into. Tesla took care of the headlight and 2 of the cosmetic issues with a visit to the service center. For the last cosmetic issue, they ordered the part, and when it came in, one of their "Rangers" came to my home and installed it.
> 
> ...


Tesla's assembly issues and sometimes service issues are often ignored by Tesla enthusiasts but those issues are the ones that eat into customer's next purchase decisions, and/or how long to keep their Tesla.

And Tesla's enthusiasts complaining others taking shots at Tesla do not drive Tesla to strive for industry standards.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Tesla's assembly issues and sometimes service issues are often ignored by Tesla enthusiasts but those issues are the ones that eat into customer's next purchase decisions, and/or how long to keep their Tesla.
> 
> And Tesla's enthusiasts complaining others taking shots at Tesla do not drive Tesla to strive for industry standards.


I don***8217;t know any tesla owner***8217;s that are not happy with their car and all that I know will only purchase a Tesla in the future.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> I don't know any tesla owner's that are not happy with their car and all that I know will only purchase a Tesla in the future.


Any unhappy Tesla owner probably prefers not to be ridiculed by Tesla enthusiasts, and quietly acts and/or plans with minimal fanfare.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Any unhappy Tesla owner probably prefers not to be ridiculed by Tesla enthusiasts, and quietly acts and/or plans with minimal fanfare.


I'm sure there's a few Tesla owners who have been totally turned off by their Tesla experience and won't buy another one as a result, but it's obviously not a significant number since Tesla consistently tops customer satisfaction indexes. Also, when someone gets upset at a company, they're usually not concerned about ridicule at all.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I'm sure there's a few Tesla owners who have been totally turned off by their Tesla experience and won't buy another one as a result, but it's obviously not a significant number since Tesla consistently tops customer satisfaction indexes. Also, when someone gets upset at a company, they're usually not concerned about ridicule at all.


At this stage Tesla is gradually morphing from cult status into name brand.

While someone can be upset about Tesla, talking against the cause is still a bit off-limit at the time, esp. from early adopters.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Any unhappy Tesla owner probably prefers not to be ridiculed by Tesla enthusiasts, and quietly acts and/or plans with minimal fanfare.


Anyone can have a bad experience with any car brand and never purchase another one and tell others that a certain brand is junk. But every tesla owner I know loves their car and plans on staying with Tesla.


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## FCBayernFTW (Oct 10, 2005)

Stopped by Tesla today...


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Stopped by Tesla today...


Showroom is a bit light in foot traffic, so which city was this showroom at?


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

FCBayernFTW said:


> Stopped by Tesla today...


One thing leaps out at me is that a mid-level Honda Civic's interior would be a big step up. Given its price I would not buy a car with an interior that looks like its out of an entry level car.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

bear-avhistory said:


> One thing leaps out at me is that a mid-level Honda Civic's interior would be a big step up. Given its price I would not buy a car with an interior that looks like its out of an entry level car.


The way a Tesla drives makes all other cars feel like an entry level car.


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## Dave 20T (Apr 7, 2013)

GregD said:


> Responses in blue.
> 
> With our model 3, in the first year and 8 months of ownership while putting 24k miles on the car, we've had a total of 5 problems. 4 of them existed when the car was delivered and included 3 minor cosmetic issues and a headlight that water got into. Tesla took care of the headlight and 2 of the cosmetic issues with a visit to the service center. For the last cosmetic issue, they ordered the part, and when it came in, one of their "Rangers" came to my home and installed it.
> 
> ...


I see good and bad. Good is that there were no major problems. Bad is that there were 5 problems. My F30 had no (zero) problems the first 90 days, which is JD Powers' time period and none in the first 2 years. It had one problem during the first 4 years, a loose tail light, which is very common to the model.

I see 3 problems of the Tesla without driving one. One is the lack of a manual transmission. On the other hand, it's electric and also the current 3 series lacks a manual. So BMW stooped to the level of Tesla, which helps Tesla.

Second problem is that I am very wary of a touch screen. Heating, AC, radio, lights should all be large manual switches. I fault BMW for having a decent but not great design. I could change my mind about the touch screen problem if I actually try it out on a Tesla. Most likely, I would partly change my mind but still have some reservations.

Third problem is that I sometimes drive 150 miles away then drive 40 miles at the destination then 150 miles back. There's no convenient place to recharge. With my BMW, I start with a full tank, drive 310 of the 340 miles, fill up with cheaper gas in a town along the way, then drive the remaining 30 miles home.

With a Tesla, I'm just now figuring it out. Drive 150+40+30 miles = 220 miles. Then charge at a non-V3 Tesla Supercharger for 20 minutes (roughly $6). I wonder if I can go 120 miles with the remaining battery life + 20 extra minutes of charge? My rough calculations is that I cannot get home if the 20 minutes of extra charge is by a slow home recharge, I could get home if the Supercharger is upgraded to V3, but unknown about the current state of Superchargers.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

Dave 20T said:


> I see good and bad. Good is that there were no major problems. Bad is that there were 5 problems. My F30 had no (zero) problems the first 90 days, which is JD Powers' time period and none in the first 2 years. It had one problem during the first 4 years, a loose tail light, which is very common to the model.
> 
> I see 3 problems of the Tesla without driving one. One is the lack of a manual transmission. On the other hand, it's electric and also the current 3 series lacks a manual. So BMW stooped to the level of Tesla, which helps Tesla.
> 
> ...


If your traveling a lot of miles daily then a Tesla can be a pain. That is the only real downfall I see with Tesla, not good if your going 300 miles a day. But for 99% of my driving the 300 miles is more than enough. Unless you can afford a new model S that has a 400 mile range.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Dave 20T said:


> I see good and bad. Good is that there were no major problems. Bad is that there were 5 problems. My F30 had no (zero) problems the first 90 days, which is JD Powers' time period and none in the first 2 years. It had one problem during the first 4 years, a loose tail light, which is very common to the model.
> 
> I see 3 problems of the Tesla without driving one. One is the lack of a manual transmission. On the other hand, it's electric and also the current 3 series lacks a manual. So BMW stooped to the level of Tesla, which helps Tesla.
> 
> ...


 Actually, Teslas don't have a transmission, which is a good thing. It's one less major part of the car to break or require maintenance, and is one of the primary reasons that Teslas have instant throttle response, no time wasted shifting gears.

I really think you'd find the touch screen to be a non-issue once you got used to it, especially since most functions can be voice controlled now.

Regarding your third "problem", I'd like to make one clarification. While a V3 supercharger is faster than a V2 supercharger at low charge levels, the total difference in time charging from a low level of charge to a medium or high level of charge only amounts to 2 to 3 minutes. If starting with a medium level of charge, there's no difference between V2 and V3. The V2 superchargers work very well; the biggest advantage of the V3 superchargers is simply allowing each supercharger to charge more cars over a period of time.

For a 340 mile trip, I would normally plan on one charging stop of 15 to 30 minutes, with the time dependent primarily on if you charge up from a low state of charge or a high state of charge. The charging rate is faster when the overall charge of the battery is lower, so it's more efficient from a time standpoint to charge up later in your trip than earlier if possible. On a 340 mile trip, just plan a food stop to coincide with a charging stop, and the car would be done charging by the time you're done eating.

If you want to get a realistic estimate of your trip time and charging requirements, abetterrouteplanner.com works very well. Go into settings to select the particular vehicle you're routing and to change any of the defaults. For information about specific superchargers, https://supercharge.info/map is a good source. Just point at each location, and it will tell you the number of stalls and max charger rate. 250kw are V3, 120kw or 150kw are V2, and 72kw are urban chargers.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> Again until you own one you have no idea of what your missing. The large touch screen displays the speed in the upper left corner which is just as easy to see if not easier than a speedometer that you have to look down to see.
> 
> The model 3 does not have motorized door handles. The other alleged problems you point out are weak at best. I will say it again my wife and I have been driving BMW***8217;s for 15 years and have really enjoyed them and I***8217;m still driving a 535I right now. But nothing that I have ever driven comes close to a Tesla and my next car will be a model S.


That is a choice of folks who know little about the tech. Model S chassis has many flaws. It's an old design and hasn't been fixed. But feel free to go for it. The only worse choice than that if you pick an X. Model 3 thousand times better. Model Y is an improvement over the 3 if someone was able to manufacture it properly.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

acoste said:


> That is a choice of folks who know little about the tech. Model S chassis has many flaws. It's an old design and hasn't been fixed. But feel free to go for it. The only worse choice than that if you pick an X. Model 3 thousand times better. Model Y is an improvement over the 3 if someone was able to manufacture it properly.


And as usual .. we love the car ELON, even though it's a junk we love you and the car


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Model 3 with detached steering wheel. #safest car

https://gulfnews.com/auto/news/brand-new-tesla-model-3s-steering-wheel-falls-off-1.1589271824611


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)




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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

I can't think of a reason why I would buy anything from Elon.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Model Y is an improvement over the 3 if someone was able to manufacture it properly.


What is the list of Model Y defects this specific owner encounter?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Model 3 with detached steering wheel. #safest car
> 
> https://gulfnews.com/auto/news/brand-new-tesla-model-3s-steering-wheel-falls-off-1.1589271824611


Ford had a similar issue in 2019 Jeep Wranglers that required a recall of 1.3m units, but hardly any similar complaints in Japan/Euro brands.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> What is the list of Model Y defects this specific owner encounter?












She returned it:


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> If your traveling a lot of miles daily then a Tesla can be a pain. That is the only real downfall I see with Tesla, not good if your going 300 miles a day. But for 99% of my driving the 300 miles is more than enough. Unless you can afford a new model S that has a 400 mile range.


Tesla owners in my circle of contacts love to gloat about their time well [email protected] on road trips, but the eye rollings from their spouses and kids tell the real stories. 

Breaking away from cult mentality is what makes real changes happen.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> She returned it:


That is great return policy. :thumbup:

It has been 3 years since Model 3 delivery and Tesla still can't figure out how to align body panels ....

One specific area of misalignment was A pillar bottom meeting top of side fender, over the years showroom and friend's Model 3's A pillars usually stick out/in by different amounts between left and right.

The latest incarnation at show room unit was that both A pillars sticking out the same amount, so even though the panels are not flush, at least left and right were symmetrical!


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

acoste said:


> That is a choice of folks who know little about the tech. Model S chassis has many flaws. It's an old design and hasn't been fixed. But feel free to go for it. The only worse choice than that if you pick an X. Model 3 thousand times better. Model Y is an improvement over the 3 if someone was able to manufacture it properly.


Really what are all these problems with the model S that you claim.


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

acoste said:


> I can't think of a reason why I would buy anything from Elon.


Well just stay with outdated ICE cars and miss out on the real ultimate driving machine.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> Really what are all these problems with the model S that you claim.


Side pole collision from 25-30mph. Battery cells get crushed, high chance of a fire.
Front pole collision from 55-60mph. Battery cells get crushed, high chance of a fire.

Additionally Model S scores lower in occupant protection than other cars. Model 3 much better there (and it's not the best, there are several cars that beat it)


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

acoste said:


> Side pole collision from 25-30mph. Battery cells get crushed, high chance of a fire.
> Front pole collision from 55-60mph. Battery cells get crushed, high chance of a fire.
> 
> Additionally Model S scores lower in occupant protection than other cars. Model 3 much better there (and it's not the best, there are several cars that beat it)


That***8217;s strange because tesla cars were rated some of the safest cars on the road in all the tests that I read. You say there are several cars that beat the model 3. How many are several? Several out of thousands of cars sounds like Tesla is awfully close to the top.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> That's strange because tesla cars were rated some of the safest cars on the road in all the tests that I read. You say there are several cars that beat the model 3. How many are several? Several out of thousands of cars sounds like Tesla is awfully close to the top.


No, that's BS from Elon. You can look up the results by yourself.

By the way the Model S designer Peter Rawlinson is releasing a new car where he fixed everything that went wrong with the S. It's called Lucid.


----------



## Dave 20T (Apr 7, 2013)

Some of these last 10 posts confirm my suspicions. There is a learning curve for car design like I originally mentioned somewhat. The 3 being better designed than the earlier S. 

I didn't find out how the heating system works. It's obviously not radiator coolant that's redirected like in a normal :rofl: car. It could be battery power so it would save power to wear a thicker coat.

I also see that a trip to a city 150 miles away, 40 miles at the destination and 150 miles back with a 20 minute recharge as a stop on the return might be possible. In my scenario, there's no practical way to recharge at the destination. Looking at various articles, with a V2 supercharger, recharging varies with temperature, remaining battery power left, if the battery is preconditioned on the way to the charger (or similar term) and if there's another car charging at the paired supercharger. I predict 20 minutes adds anywhere from 20% to 50%. I also predict that at the end of 150+40+30 (210 miles) that the battery will have 15% left. If so 15% + (20 to 50) = 35-65%. To me, that would mean needing some extra recharging time beyond 20 minutes if it were 35% but if 65% then it would be enough to get home.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Dave 20T said:


> Some of these last 10 posts confirm my suspicions. There is a learning curve for car design like I originally mentioned somewhat. The 3 being better designed than the earlier S.
> 
> I didn't find out how the heating system works. It's obviously not radiator coolant that's redirected like in a normal :rofl: car. It could be battery power so it would save power to wear a thicker coat.
> 
> I also see that a trip to a city 150 miles away, 40 miles at the destination and 150 miles back with a 20 minute recharge as a stop on the return might be possible. In my scenario, there's no practical way to recharge at the destination. Looking at various articles, with a V2 supercharger, recharging varies with temperature, remaining battery power left, if the battery is preconditioned on the way to the charger (or similar term) and if there's another car charging at the paired supercharger. I predict 20 minutes adds anywhere from 20% to 50%. I also predict that at the end of 150+40+30 (210 miles) that the battery will have 15% left. If so 15% + (20 to 50) = 35-65%. To me, that would mean needing some extra recharging time beyond 20 minutes if it were 35% but if 65% then it would be enough to get home.


 On the Models S, X, and 3, heating is done by an electrical resistive element. The Model Y uses a more efficient heat pump system. You can save energy and extend your range on cold days by reducing the HVAC temp and wearing a coat. That said, it's really not worth worrying about.

At the end of driving 150+40+30 (220 miles), you should have about 20% of battery left if you started with 90% state of charge. If you started with 100% state of charge, you should have about 30% left. With a V3 Supercharger, recharging varies with temperature, remaining battery power left, and if the battery is preconditioned on the way to the charger. The only part that can affect V2 Supercharger charge rates that can't affect the V3 is paired superchargers, which is only a problem if more than half are in use.

Going with your original 340 mile trip, you should only have 120 miles left to make it home. Unless you have a large increase in altitude in the last 120 miles, a 50% charge should be plenty and give you a more than adequate safety margin. Realistically, charging from 30% to 50% normally takes less than 10 minutes on a V2 supercharger.

The total battery size is about 75kWh, so 20% is 15kWh. If you're charging on a V2 or V3 supercharger, it can normally maintain a charge rate of just under 150kWh up to the 50% point, so 6 minutes of charging optimally, but usually about 10% to 15% slower in actual use, so call it 7 minutes. Even if you have a paired V2 Supercharger use situation, you're still under 15 minutes to charge.

P.S. I'm assuming a long range Model 3, like I have, in the estimates above. According to the specs, a long range Model Y should be similar, but performance Model 3s and Ys, and otherTeslas would take more charging time except for a new Model S which should be able to make the whole trip without charging.


----------



## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Dave 20T said:


> Second problem is that I am very wary of a touch screen. Heating, AC, radio, lights should all be large manual switches. I fault BMW for having a decent but not great design. I could change my mind about the touch screen problem if I actually try it out on a Tesla. Most likely, I would partly change my mind but still have some reservations.


I'm not in either camp. I love ICE cars, but see nothing wrong with electrics. I couldn't imagine driving a car with horrific fit and finish, when even cheap Korean cars are damn near perfect, but if that's your cup of tea/kombucha, go for it. I would prefer an iPace or Taycan over a Tesla, even an eTron if the styling wasn't bizarro, Maybe even a Mustang Mach-e, which I think looks SO much better than the Type Y or eTron.

But the display screen question is a good one. What happens if the display fails? If your kiddo spills a Big Gulp on it? If it gets whacked when you decide to carry a heavy object in the car,? or if it just plain goes Tango Uniform to spite you?

With so much controlled by the touch screen, is your ride effectively bricked?


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

quackbury said:


> But the display screen question is a good one. What happens if the display fails? If your kiddo spills a Big Gulp on it? If it gets whacked when you decide to carry a heavy object in the car,? or if it just plain goes Tango Uniform to spite you?
> 
> With so much controlled by the touch screen, is your ride effectively bricked?


I'm pretty sure that the car will still operate even if the display fails. You can actually do a reset of the screen while the car is being driven, the screen blanks out for about 30 seconds, then it starts rebooting, and after about another 30 seconds it's done except for the cellular internet connection which takes about another minute to come back. The car drives fine while this is occurring.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> At the test both drivers decelerated from 20mph to 0 and both got squeezed to the left side of the car. There is no more crush zone left in both cars. At higher speeds the deceleration numbers of the drivers get closer to each other and the difference disappears. We are getting closer to numbers where there is less chance of a survival, see curves attached. Volvo's hips may get crushed by the center console, but the body deceleration causes magnitudes more injuries. And the Tesla driver faces higher chance of a battery fire additionally.
> 
> Now these tests target the driver exactly. What if the pole hits the rear door? Volvo driver's deceleration decreases compared to the test while Model 3 driver's remains elevated.
> 
> What if the pole comes from the right side? Model 3 driver has a higher chance of a broken spine/hips.


Is there any link to g-force/time graphs for right side hit of Model 3? And any link to similar left and right g-force/time graphs of S60 and other cars?

These are quite interesting data, esp. Model 3 driver's head still encounters loads of g-force even with 20-0, let alone 30-0.

In other words, "safest" seems to be an oxymoron when actual impact occurs, right?


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Is there any link to g-force/time graphs for right side hit of Model 3? And any link to similar left and right g-force/time graphs of S60 and other cars?
> 
> These are quite interesting data, esp. Model 3 driver's head still encounters loads of g-force even with 20-0, let alone 30-0.
> 
> In other words, "safest" seems to be an oxymoron when actual impact occurs, right?


Yeah, safer means higher chance of survival. 30g can be deadly for the elderly while a teenager can tolerate it.

I don't know anyone who does lateral right side crash tests. It was big news when IIHS started the frontal small right overlap tests.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Yeah, safer means higher chance of survival. 30g can be deadly for the elderly while a teenager can tolerate it.
> 
> I don't know anyone who does lateral right side crash tests. It was big news when IIHS started the frontal small right overlap tests.


The attached [email protected]#4018 are for Model 3, driver side pole impact, is there a link to the same set of graphs for S60, or F30, or other cars?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> The attached [email protected]#4018 are for Model 3, driver side pole impact, is there a link to the same set of graphs for S60, or F30, or other cars?


nhtsa.gov has all the data in pdfs


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

acoste said:


> nhtsa.gov has all the data in pdfs


Here is the F30. Better than Model 3. Similar shape but the Model 3 has an extra 15g spike (on top of the 50) on the head, like a hammer hit. Hips deceleration is also lower for the BMW.
But for the S60 the curve is much better than these.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Here is the F30. Better than Model 3. Similar shape but the Model 3 has an extra 15g spike (on top of the 50) on the head, like a hammer hit. Hips deceleration is also lower for the BMW.
> But for the S60 the curve is much better than these.


Wow even a 7-8 yrs old F30 model has better numbers than Model 3 in this set of crash data .... In particular Head X is so drastic in Model 3, not good!

There seems to be no data for 30-0, 40-0, etc, etc. It would be of interest to see if Model 3's battery pack can prevent driver getting crushed at higher speed.

But again, Model 3's battery pack is not reinforced like e-Tron/Taycan, saving the driver from being crushed may also mean the driver can be trapped for potential battery fire.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The latest posts also remind me of "accident avoidance speed", maybe this is another NHTSA test? 

F30's avoidance speed is 2mph higher than Accord, meaning F30 has a better chance to steer clear of obstacles than Accord.

It would be of interest to see if Model 3 has such a rating. 

Just like Zero, if one can outrun danger, there is no need for armor plate!


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Wow even a 7-8 yrs old F30 model has better numbers than Model 3 in this set of crash data .... In particular Head X is so drastic in Model 3, not good!
> 
> There seems to be no data for 30-0, 40-0, etc, etc. It would be of interest to see if Model 3's battery pack can prevent driver getting crushed at higher speed.
> 
> But again, Model 3's battery pack is not reinforced like e-Tron/Taycan, saving the driver from being crushed may also mean the driver can be trapped for potential battery fire.


Yes, this is one thing Munro criticized. They designed the battery case lightweight with no lateral reinforcement and made the car body stiff to protect the battery. Not sure why, doesn't make sense unless if they wanted to brag with pack level energy density. Food for tesla fans.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Yes, this is one thing Munro criticized. They designed the battery case lightweight with no lateral reinforcement and made the car body stiff to protect the battery. Not sure why, doesn't make sense unless if they wanted to brag with pack level energy density. Food for tesla fans.


The original thought process is likely that the metal jacket per cell can aggregate together to provide strengths, and they do.

The subtle point that inquisitive minds picked up (and backed up by accident data), is that the aggregate strength does not help when a few cells can take the blunt of the 40/30/20-0 impact, and the thermal runaway from those few cells can set off a chain reaction.

Among my circle of contacts, the ME/EE folks are reserved about Tesla battery, while the CS folks are overconfident about Tesla AP/FSD.

In the meantime, the finance/marketing/sales/politics non-tech folks are so excited that they seldom understand what ME/EE tried to explain, while cheer lead for the CS folks who over-promise.


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

So do you guys go over every aspect of safety in every detail on every car before you purchase it? Or is that how far you had to dig to find a way to bash Tesla? Its interesting that when I google safety rating of tesla they get 5 star across the board. 

All but one site claimed they are one of the safest sedans on the road, none of these were from Elon so I***8217;m not sure how you guys can claim they are inherently dangerous. I will say that they have not been around that long and there are not that many on the road yet to probably get an accurate reading.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> So do you guys go over every aspect of safety in every detail on every car before you purchase it? Or is that how far you had to dig to find a way to bash Tesla? Its interesting that when I google safety rating of tesla they get 5 star across the board.
> 
> All but one site claimed they are one of the safest sedans on the road, none of these were from Elon so I'm not sure how you guys can claim they are inherently dangerous. I will say that they have not been around that long and there are not that many on the road yet to probably get an accurate reading.


nhtsa.gov data sheets mentioned by acoste are quite informative, they were passed on to some inquisitive minds (some are Model 3 owners) in my work group and generated instant interest.

And bashing or otherwise is up to eyes of beholders. In general if one is confident of one's decision, there should be no objection for any open discussion in search for truth.


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> nhtsa.gov data sheets mentioned by acoste are quite informative, they were passed on to some inquisitive minds (some are Model 3 owners) in my work group and generated instant interest.
> 
> And bashing or otherwise is up to eyes of beholders. In general if one is confident of one's decision, there should be no objection for any open discussion in search for truth.


Okay then why is it that when I do a search on Tesla numerous reports give it a 5 star safety rating? No problem with the truth but it seems there is some selective research being done. I get it that some of you are Tesla haters and it bugs you to see the growing praise of the electric car.

I***8217;ve had 2 used Tesla***8217;s and have none of these terrible panels that don***8217;t line up and bad workmanship that I read here. But I did have a BMW 528I that had the timing change go out at 64k miles. This coming from an established car manufacturer that has been building cars for a long time, but put a piece of junk timing chain and guides in a high priced car.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Okay then why is it that when I do a search on Tesla numerous reports give it a 5 star safety rating? No problem with the truth but it seems there is some selective research being done. I get it that some of you are Tesla haters and it bugs you to see the growing praise of the electric car.
> 
> I've had 2 used Tesla's and have none of these terrible panels that don't line up and bad workmanship that I read here. But I did have a BMW 528I that had the timing change go out at 64k miles. This coming from an established car manufacturer that has been building cars for a long time, but put a piece of junk timing chain and guides in a high priced car.


The argument appears to be that Tesla claimed/claims Model 3 to be the safest, although 5-star just means Model 3 is among the top rating, but not the highest score within 5-star.

Do note NTHSA, the guy who did all the tests, sent a cease-and-desist order to Tesla about this exact issue, but Tesla asked NHTSA to get lost.

Based on the NTHSA data posted by acoste, one can interpret that even a F30 performed better in 2012 than Model 3 in 2018.

https://insideevs.com/news/363978/tesla-model-3-safest-car-nhtsa/

As far as terrible panels, again it is up to the eyes of beholders. E.g. some will turn a blind eye to the misalignment shown in post#3991, while some(e.g. Munro and the owner in post#3991) do not.

As far as junked timing chain and chain, BMW has been guilty as charged, e.g. N20/N26, and in 2 weeks BMWNA will need to answer to the judge before heading into a potentially costly and lengthy trial.

In BMW's case, it is the honest owners that make BMW honest, not forum posters and yay/naysayers.

In fact, my thread about N20/N26 timing chain issues was quickly labeled by super moderator and others as false narratives, but no worries, the truth is worth pursuing.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> There's a few things he didn't like, and which really were subpar, but if you keep watching, he really liked it overall and was quite impressed by it.


OK up to E3(episode 3), a long way to E40!

@0:53 Munro was about to utter "son of a ...." , when the cover behind the frunk came right off!

@1:10 broken clip

@1:25 "christmas tree" gone ....

@2:05 frunk did not close unless forced

@2:10 frunk not flush

@2:25 frunk locking latch seemed not working

All the above just within 2:36 ....


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> OK up to E3(episode 3), a long way to E40!
> 
> @0:53 Munro was about to utter "son of a ...." , when the cover behind the frunk came right off!
> 
> ...


And all about the same problem. Keep watching, there's 42 episodes.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> And all about the same problem. Keep watching, there's 42 episodes.


Ok let's be generous and lump these into 2 problems, one with panel, the other with frunk lock latch.

And E2, "Fit and Finish", shows 3 to 4 alignment issues?

One episode a day keeps the skeptic away?


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> The argument appears to be that Tesla claimed/claims Model 3 to be the safest, although 5-star just means Model 3 is among the top rating, but not the highest score within 5-star.
> 
> Do note NTHSA, the guy who did all the tests, sent a cease-and-desist order to Tesla about this exact issue, but Tesla asked NHTSA to get lost.
> 
> ...


Oh so even though the Tesla does have a 5 star safety rating Which only means that it's among the top safety rated cars but not the highest score within 5 star. Lol so are you telling me that an owner of a car company made some exaggerated claims?

I can't believe that Elon should be tar and feathered because no other manufacturers make exaggerated claims about their vehicles. To hear you guys explain it Tesla is an unsafe vehicle and very dangerous. But now it's they don't have the highest score within their 5 star safety rating. It's pretty obvious that some here are tesla haters and jealous of the cars popularity.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Ok let's be generous and lump these into 2 problems, one with panel, the other with frunk lock latch.


No, one problem since the panel problem caused the latching problem.


namelessman said:


> And E2, "Fit and Finish", shows 3 to 4 alignment issues?


Yep, that is something Tesla has had plenty of issues with. That said, most of their cars are better. In fact, you'll see in one of the later episodes where they check out another Model Y that is much better in the fit and finish area.


namelessman said:


> One episode a day keeps the skeptic away?


Sounds reasonable.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Munro Model Y teardown E5:
> 
> @0:35, wow so *Model 3 suspension damper pieces are held together with "bands"*, those look like plastic tie-down straps, right? Hmmm .....
> 
> ...


Munro didn't have a problem with the bands, and I think he knows a lot more about their suitability for that use than you or I do. I think it's interesting that you pick particular details and then try to spin them in a negative fashion while ignoring anything good that Munro may say about a Tesla.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Munro Model Y teardown E6:
> 
> Munro got excited about Model Y's rear trunk assembly being 1-piece versus Model 3's convoluted design of "hundreds of parts".
> 
> ...


 You just watched it but you either didn't pay very good attention or you're just being disingenuous to make a false point. The corrugated tubing, not straps, sometimes sees very limited use in other cars, but nothing like what Tesla has done with the Model Y, according to Sandy. He said, "Tesla has gone overboard. We've never seen anybody do this ever.", regarding it. So basically the Model Y is an improvement over all other cars out there. The Model 3 is more like other cars in this regard, which doesn't make them bad; it just means they're not as good as the Model Y.

Regarding the rear unibody, that was Sandy's number one complaint about the Model 3, mostly from a manufacturing cost and complexity standpoint. Basically, Tesla took a part, that in the Model 3, was made less efficiently than industry standard, and went to a much more efficient process that has effectively leapfrogged the industry.

I think that "improving the process" is something that Tesla has been doing ever since they produced the Roadster. In some regards, their processes apparently lead the auto manufacturing industry; in others, they are lagging, but it does seem like they are lagging in fewer areas as time goes on.


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Usually phrases like "haters like you" are thrown out due to fear.
> 
> So be fearless, just make best efforts to understand tools in hand, e.g. one can try not to get hit at weak spots of the car.


Ya that's it I have so much fear of some jealous haters of Tesla lol. Keep on hating while I enjoy driving the most fun and unique vehicle ever made.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Ya that's it I have so much fear of some jealous haters of Tesla lol. Keep on hating while I enjoy driving the most fun and unique vehicle ever made.


No worries, keep motoring and have fun.

It is just that Munro pointed out that Model 3 was not that well designed, and Model Y started to address some of the issues.

And the inquisitive minds keep munching and improve the process.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> No worries, keep motoring and have fun.
> 
> It is just that Munro pointed out that Model 3 was not that well designed, and Model Y started to address some of the issues.
> 
> And the inquisitive minds keep munching and improve the process.


Munro never said that the Model 3 wasn't well designed on the whole, just that it had some significant flaws in its design from a manufacturing perspective. As a manufacturing engineer, I think Sandy could say that about many, if not most, cars. He obviously thinks that the Model Y is a significant step forward.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> You just watched it but you either didn't pay very good attention or you're just being disingenuous to make a false point. The  corrugated tubing, not straps, sometimes sees very limited use in other cars, but nothing like what Tesla has done with the Model Y, according to Sandy. He said, "Tesla has gone overboard. We've never seen anybody do this ever.", regarding it. So basically the Model Y is an improvement over all other cars out there. The Model 3 is more like other cars in this regard, which doesn't make them bad; it just means they're not as good as the Model Y.


My comment was "The corrugated straps are used in many other cars, like BMW engine bays, right?"

And yes my F30 engine bay has those corrugated tubes, albeit in shorter segments than what was shown in Model Y, given the wires do not need to run that far in F30's use cases.

Comments like "....or you're just being disingenuous to make a false point" are amusing, but inquisitive minds are emotionless, and usually not the ones who do not pay very good attention.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Basically, Tesla took a part, that in the Model 3, was made less efficiently than industry standard, and went to a much more efficient process that has effectively leapfrogged the industry.


"Leapfrogged the industry" sounds like an ingenious attempt to oversell Tesla, or an uninformed battle cry from a Tesla cult member, but hey this is a public forum .... 

My take is Tesla needs to fix a subpar Model 3 rear chassis design to stay at par with rest of auto industry.

Do check out F30(a 10-year old chassis design), and G20(further enhanced), and compare those with Model 3's chassis, particularly the rear that Munro hammered on.

And that may explain my unwillingness of acquiring Model 3 base for more than $25k(oh well, that price point never materializes, never mind ....)


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My comment was "The corrugated straps are used in many other cars, like BMW engine bays, right?"
> 
> And yes my F30 engine bay has those corrugated tubes, albeit in shorter segments than what was shown in Model Y, given the wires do not need to run that far in F30's use cases.
> 
> Comments like "....or you're just being disingenuous to make a false point" are amusing, but inquisitive minds are emotionless, and usually not the ones who do not pay very good attention.


You also stated, "meaning Model 3 no such corrugated straps of important wiring", which is wrong, and just you making something up out of thin air. You are obviously not "emotionless" when it comes to Tesla; you have an blatant anti-Tesla bias.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> "Leapfrogged the industry" sounds like an ingenious attempt to oversell Tesla, or an uninformed battle cry from a Tesla cult member, but hey this is a public forum ....
> 
> My take is Tesla needs to fix a subpar Model 3 rear chassis design to stay at par with rest of auto industry.
> 
> ...


 No other car manufacturer has created a process to cast the entire rear unibody support structure in only two pieces. Tesla even developed a new aluminum alloy to enable this. These casting pieces do "leapfrog the industry" for construction of this part of the vehicle; saying so is not "oversell", or an "uninformed battle cry". 

P.S. $25k?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> You also stated, "meaning Model 3 no such corrugated straps of important wiring", which is wrong, and obviously just you making something up out of thin air. You are obviously not "emotionless" when it comes to Tesla; you have an obvious anti-Tesla bias.


As emotionless inquisitive minds have questions, they do ask the questions, so skipping the "?" question mark is again an ingenious attempt to discredit a fellow fester, but hey, this is a public forum, right? 

My question was "... meaning Model 3 has no such corrugated straps of important wiring*?!?*"

In a constructive discussion, and if the answer is known, the involved parties will nicely provide the answer and move on.

So is there a link of Munro's or other's tear down of Model 3 that can show how corrugated tubes are used in Model 3?  There seems to be no nicely categorized 40-part utube series on Model 3 teardown.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> As emotionless inquisitive minds have questions, they do ask the questions, so skipping the "?" question mark is again an ingenious attempt to discredit a fellow fester, but hey, this is a public forum, right?
> 
> My question was "... meaning Model 3 has no such corrugated straps of important wiring*?!?*"
> 
> ...


When someone writes "?!?", that comes across as pushing a point, not asking a question.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> No other car manufacturer has created a process to cast the entire rear unibody support structure in only two pieces. Tesla even developed a new aluminum alloy to enable this. These casting pieces do "leapfrog the industry" for construction of this part of the vehicle; saying so is not "oversell", or an "uninformed battle cry".


There is no reference online/utube of this Model Y rear unibody being trailblazer, but no worries, let's treat it as such. 

And G20 3-series production videos do not show how rear chassis is assembled, from parts diagram it appear F30/G20 has a huge rear piece as part of unibody, so maybe some unibody experts can chime in.

Oh wait, there are only 3-4 regulars here, need to get more traffic out to end of the wood!


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> When someone writes "?!?", that comes across as pushing a point, not asking a question.


It depends on interpretation. 

Hmm online search still can't find any picture/video of Model 3 corrugated tube usage for low-voltage wiring, can some inquisitive Model 3 owners(e.g. GregD) take some photos/videos?


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> This guy is returning it as well
> 
> https://twitter.com/Hectorrojaso/status/1278425700433899521
> 
> Maybe all Elon cared about is the profit for Q2. Customers are just an annoying noise in the background.


Wow what happened to this Model Y? Any other link to show what are the circumstances leading to water collecting inside the car?

And not able to return car within 3 days does not sound right, even with state incentives paid.

Can Tesla accept the return if buyers pay back incentives to Tesla?


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Wow what happened to this Model Y? Any other link to show what are the circumstances leading to water collecting inside the car?
> 
> And not able to return car within 3 days does not sound right, even with state incentives paid.
> 
> Can Tesla accept the return if buyers pay back incentives to Tesla?


Wow for someone that doesn't own or like Tesla you sure spend a lot of time worrying about them. Must be a pretty boring life spending endless time looking for flaws in a Tesla.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Wow for someone that doesn***8217;t own or like Tesla you sure spend a lot of time worrying about them. Must be a pretty boring life spending endless time looking for flaws in a Tesla.


Maybe your work-from-home mixed in with household chaos is boring, but no such luck for this poor soul. 

It is great that some Tesla owners are honest with themselves and speak the truth in spite of cynicism from Tesla cult members.

Those honest comments and opinions help with future customers(including myself) to gauge when is time Tesla starts producing great tools.

And honestly, do u know how this Model Y got so much water inside? Inquisitive minds want to know!


----------



## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Maybe your work-from-home mixed in with household chaos is boring, but no such luck for this poor soul.
> 
> It is great that some Tesla owners are honest with themselves and speak the truth in spite of cynicism from Tesla cult members.
> 
> ...


I own a model 3 and could care less about how some model Y got water inside. By great tools do you mean like the bmw n20 motor that has a good chance of blowing up in under 60k miles? Now that's a total piece of garbage and cheap inferior design.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> I own a model 3 and could care less about how some model Y got water inside. By great tools do you mean like the bmw n20 motor that has a good chance of blowing up in under 60k miles? Now that***8217;s a total piece of garbage and cheap inferior design.


N20 motor blowing up has been my stated reason of starting this thread(3+ years ago!) and monitoring Tesla progress, as local Tesla factory delivery would be quite convenient for a replacement tool. 

But given current sets of data and owner experience, my gut feel is that if BMW does not deliver recall/15 years 150000 miles warranty, then the next ride will be a Honda/Toyota. 

For current Model 3 owners though, knowing the improvements of Model Y over Model 3 should give clues what are deficiencies of Model 3.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> N20 motor blowing up has been my stated reason of starting this thread(3+ years ago!) and monitoring Tesla progress, as local Tesla factory delivery would be quite convenient for a replacement tool.
> 
> But given current sets of data and owner experience, my gut feel is that if BMW does not deliver recall/15 years 150000 miles warranty, then the next ride will be a Honda/Toyota.
> 
> For current Model 3 owners though, knowing the improvements of Model Y over Model 3 should give clues what are deficiencies of Model 3.


A Honda or Toyota lol, would never drive one of those junk cars. Between the wife and I we have purchased 8 BMW's over the years and have really enjoyed them. But now that we have experienced Tesla we will only drive them in the future.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> A Honda or Toyota lol, would never drive one of those junk cars. Between the wife and I we have purchased 8 BMW's over the years and have really enjoyed them. But now that we have experienced Tesla we will only drive them in the future.


Interestingly "junk car" in my mind is associated with Tesla


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> Well that's it I'm returning my Tesla because they didn't paint the whole frame with body color paint. That completely ruins the car and makes it not worth driving.


I would run very far from a company who does this.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Munro Model Y tear down E7:

Wow Munro said "uber strong", so *Model Y has much improved front sheet metal and SORB design than Model 3*, that by itself should be an incentive to trade in Model 3 for Model Y! 

So Model Y still skips body paint on certain parts. 

How does BMW wire its front radar and pedestrian loudspeaker(if equipped)? Those wiring should be relatively heavy duty, so with or without corrugated tubes may not matter as much, esp. when front bumper is not usually high-temp application.

It is possible Tesla takes another tack to use light duty wires, and enclose in corrugated tubes. Munro or some other consulting firm can delve in a G-series BMW to compare. 

Also the corrugated tubes prevent splicing needed for aftermarket parts, so that can be a reason too.

The outside mounted hex bolt on wheel hub can prevent non-factory rims to be installed(as described by Munro), but someone commented under video that that bolt can be removed.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/04/tesla-model-y-is-uber-strong/


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> How is your experience owning those 8 BMW's 30-40k to 100k? Any expensive out-of-pocket expense?


Not really after all the talk of how much rip off BMW's maintenance is I cannot complain. Of course I don't bring my cars to the stealership and I change oil myself plus do as much maintenance myself as possible. Like brakes, plugs, filters and belts.

A lot of people told me was really gambling buying used BMW's without extended maintenance. I only had warranties on a couple of them. We had a couple thermostats that I had done and other than that just usual brakes normal wear and tear maintenance.

I did have a 2013 528I that gave me the dreaded low oil pressure warning. Lucky for me I had 64K miles on it and just a few weeks prior bmw sent me an extended warranty for the timing chain to he covered up to 70K miles. The motor didn't get ruined and the dealership did the timing chain job free of charge.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Not really after all the talk of how much rip off BMW's maintenance is I cannot complain. Of course I don't bring my cars to the stealership and I change oil myself plus do as much maintenance myself as possible. Like brakes, plugs, filters and belts.
> 
> A lot of people told me was really gambling buying used BMW's without extended maintenance. I only had warranties on a couple of them. We had a couple thermostats that I had done and other than that just usual brakes normal wear and tear maintenance.
> 
> I did have a 2013 528I that gave me the dreaded low oil pressure warning. Lucky for me I had 64K miles on it and just a few weeks prior bmw sent me an extended warranty for the timing chain to he covered up to 70K miles. The motor didn't get ruined and the dealership did the timing chain job free of charge.


That sounds like honest, positive, owner's experience. 

My first BMW was E39 bought new, for 12 years and 100k miles. No ESC, and total out of pocket repair + maintenance + tires was $7k.

Out of $7k, $3k was at last 18 months for brakes and pre-emptive cooling systems and tires and other stuff to refresh and prep for sales.

The current one is F30 N26 bought new, 7.5 years and 75k miles so far, also no ESC.

TC was not done before 7 yr/70k ELW expiration, at the same time, my TC is still quiet and smooth, no CEL(which will be great for PZEV coverage).

And dealer foremen and trusted indies all gave A-OK verdicts for now.

All oil changes are at dealer since 5 miles on odometer, paying $50(with coupons) to $95 outside of 4 yrs/50k free maintenance, just to maintain PZEV warranty.

The latest LL17FE 0w20 is worth trying, the N26 sounds even quieter than previous LL01FE 0w30, as long as no track days and high-temp operations and such.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> That sounds like honest, positive, owner's experience.
> 
> My first BMW was E39 bought new, for 12 years and 100k miles. No ESC, and total out of pocket repair + maintenance + tires was $7k.
> 
> ...


Yes my experience has been positive even though I was nervous on my first few bimmers because of all the horror stories I heard about the high maintenance costs. The parts are expensive brake rotors and pads just for the front are around $350.00 which is definitely more than the domestic cars I owned in the past. But they are better quality than the domestic cars I owned in and since I do them myself it's not that bad.

The first brake job I had done at an indy and it was $600.00 which I thought was pretty high. Then after checking out YouTube videos and realizing that the brakes are just as easy on a bmw as any other car I did brakes myself.

To have new thermostat put in at indy the cost was $600.00 so that is a lot higher than most cars. But that was the highest I had to pay for any maintenance on all the BMW's I have owned. So my maintenance was not near as bad as I expected but of course a lot of that has to do with doing most jobs myself.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Yes my experience has been positive even though I was nervous on my first few bimmers because of all the horror stories I heard about the high maintenance costs. The parts are expensive brake rotors and pads just for the front are around $350.00 which is definitely more than the domestic cars I owned in the past. But they are better quality than the domestic cars I owned in and since I do them myself it's not that bad.


The old E39 has expensive parts, brake pads + rotors + labor per axle $500, but it was changed after 90k miles, so it was not too bad. E39/E46 are famous for cooling system issues, so $1k+ for an overhaul was done to replace thermostat, radiator, expansion tank, water pump, hoses, etc, etc.

The current F30 has relatively cheap BMW-logo parts, e.g. a few years ago, the BMW engine air filter was $3.50 each from dealer online parts, made in France! Wiper blade sets were $9.50, cabin activated filter $25. Those are the DIY parts stocked for this F30.

In addition, non-sport rear pad set from dealer was $30, sensor wire $15, rotors $75 x 2 = $150, so less than $200 BMW-logo parts were collected so far. The plan is to pay $150-$200 labor to install when the time comes.

Those labor and parts prices approach local Honda/Toyota rates, e.g. turning Honda rotors + pads easily goes for $250 at local indies/dealers.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Munro Model Y teardown E8:

Munro's right, gap consistency(and in my mind symmetry) projects quality, and for now Tesla is still working on this category.

So plastic upper arm + screws are what RAM uses as well for off-road, and cheaper than bind + port, and that translates to saved cost for customers.

To re-quote Autoputzer, "Every process can be improved. *A lot of process improvements can be measured in money*."

The under frunk setup of Model Y looks more compact than Model 3(and Munro said the same).


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

mull6 said:


> ​
> It's been all BMW's for the last 15 years and now my wife drives a Tesla. Which makes all ICE cars very boring to drive. Your are driving in the past in your grandpa's car, but I am driving the future driving machines. No silly gas and oil needed and noisy jerky feeling. The Tesla is instant torque and super smooth performance that your out of date cars cannot come close to.


Yeah, Gramp's (usual family usage) personal daily driver might be noisy, jerky, primitive, brutal, loud and unforgiving, sub 3 seconds to 60, with all the refinement of a medieval battle ax its anything but boring.

Two brands in 15 years, can understand your boredom, very boring indeed.:thumbup: Based on your track record (no implied performance usage) can understand why a nice quiet boring no soul people capsule would appeal to you. Snooze much while the capsule drives you around?:rofl:

Guy claims to be bored with BMW yet his experience for 15 years is buy an used BMW, run it to 100K unload it, buy another used BMW, run it to 100K, unload it.......repeat, repeat. Amazed it took 15 long years of self inflicted boredom before the major breakout to wait; a nice, quite, smooth, boring, people capsule.:dunno:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

An inquisitive Tesla owner made a video about why ICEs have long way to go.

It is a nice summary of the pros and cons discussed in the last 4100+ posts on this thread. 

And a followup video was added when this guy was hammered by EV/Tesla enthusiasts.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hatav_Rdnno

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJL9MasBFvM


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Munro Model Y teardown E9:

So Munro dug into the frunk hood issue, and discovered that the hood hinges, and the lock latch unit, were adjusted(based on witness marks) possibly due to the frunk panel missing a christmas tree, and a lost cowl clip.

So there are two problems, first with trunk panel, second with [email protected] and/or delivery that incorrectly realigned the trunk hood and latch.

The simplified Model Y aero shield again looks like improved process, with reduced costs(although Munro said similar costs), that can benefits customers.

The Model Y front SO cross-car beam and strut tower braces look sturdier than Model 3's, "prevents parallelogram" as Munro said. 



GregD said:


> No, one problem since the panel problem caused the latching problem.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

bear-avhistory said:


> Yeah, Gramp's (usual family usage) personal daily driver might be noisy, jerky, primitive, brutal, loud and unforgiving, sub 3 seconds to 60, with all the refinement of a medieval battle ax its anything but boring.
> 
> Two brands in 15 years, can understand your boredom, very boring indeed.:thumbup: Based on your track record (no implied performance usage) can understand why a nice quiet boring no soul people capsule would appeal to you. Snooze much while the capsule drives you around?:rofl:
> 
> Guy claims to be bored with BMW yet his experience for 15 years is buy an used BMW, run it to 100K unload it, buy another used BMW, run it to 100K, unload it.......repeat, repeat. Amazed it took 15 long years of self inflicted boredom before the major breakout to wait; a nice, quite, smooth, boring, people capsule.:dunno:


I said I enjoyed BMW's, regardless of brand I get bored of the same car after a few years so I like to change vehicles every few years. Years back I drove SUV's then I drove some domestic sedans and after enjoying driving my wife's bmw so much I started driving them.

Purchased a 535I a year ago and still driving it now and it's a very nice car, but it is not near as enjoyable to drive as my wife's model 3 is. Until you have owned a Tesla and driven one for an extended period of time you have no idea of how nice they are.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

bear-avhistory said:


> Yeah, Gramp's (usual family usage) personal daily driver might be noisy, jerky, primitive, brutal, loud and unforgiving, sub 3 seconds to 60, with all the refinement of a medieval battle ax its anything but boring.
> 
> Two brands in 15 years, can understand your boredom, very boring indeed.:thumbup: Based on your track record (no implied performance usage) can understand why a nice quiet boring no soul people capsule would appeal to you. Snooze much while the capsule drives you around?:rofl:
> 
> Guy claims to be bored with BMW yet his experience for 15 years is buy an used BMW, run it to 100K unload it, buy another used BMW, run it to 100K, unload it.......repeat, repeat. Amazed it took 15 long years of self inflicted boredom before the major breakout to wait; a nice, quite, smooth, boring, people capsule.:dunno:


As long as he enjoys them, why not? I was fine with the BMW world until they came out the new 5series which I don't find as appealing. We also need an X7 size car, but that front isn't my favorite either. i4 however looks good. 
I have been looking for a new car for 1 year now, but this stick shift 550i is still very enjoyable after 6 years. People aren't the same.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I have been looking for a new car for 1 year now, but this stick shift 550i is still very enjoyable after 6 years. People aren't the same.


Is that a 6MT E60 550i with V8 N/A engine? 2010 was E60's last model year, which supposedly is the most reliable for any BMW models, and with most goodies! :thumbup:

What mileage and how much are out-of-pocket costs?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

Wow, I have never seen such move. But Tesla is the best.

Shortened warranty on a problematic part. On the older S people kept replacing drive units under warranty every 60k mi. Looks like Tesla doesn't want the same with the MCUs.
I just noticed they shortened the warranty for replacement drive units as well, now it's 50k.

https://electrek.co/2020/07/04/tesla-updates-warranty-problematic-media-unit-touchscreen/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Is that a 6MT E60 550i with V8 N/A engine? 2010 was E60's last model year, which supposedly is the most reliable for any BMW models, and with most goodies! :thumbup:
> 
> What mileage and how much are out-of-pocket costs?


I'm at 115k mi now. I spend money on maintenance based on a schedule so I do a lot of preventive maintenance and use BMW parts only. If I summed that up, must be a lot of money. Did water pump, thermostat, control arms, exp tank, belts, spark plugs.

As for reliability, I had a few annoying things. One tiny coolant vent hose cracked at around 95k mi (didn't leave me stranded) as it was a minor leak. Then just now I blew the major coolant hose out of my stupidity, this time it got me stranded. I was also chasing a fuel tank leak warning for a year which turned out to be a $5 seal on the top of the tank. Most expensive - labor but that's free for me as I DIY - was fixing up all the engine oil leaks at the 100k mi mark. It's very tight there in the engine compartment of a V8.

Basically before I reached 95k mi I only had collision related repairs plus maintenance.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

acoste said:


> As long as he enjoys them, why not?


That goes both ways. Seems like 2 or 3 guys are here extolling the virtues of a specific brand that has nothing to do with the forums branding. Then you all turn around & complain when there is some push back.

Personally I do care what you drive. Not wedded to BMW have 5 different brands sitting in the driveway right now domestic, imported & home built.

Just struck me as something very weird that anyone of sound mind & body with any kind of varied automotive experience could make this statement about an Tesla *"I enjoy driving the most fun and unique vehicle ever made".*

*The most fun car ever made* What kind of varied automotive experience with pure fun cars does this suggest to you?

*The most unique vehicle ever made* Its a freeken electric car. They have been making them since before the Spanish American war in the US & longer in Europe. When I was in grammar school 1940's/1950's the commercial laundry down the street had a fleet of all electric delivery trucks. Most home delivered milk was by electric trucks. Both electric vehicle manufactures went out of business by the 1960's. Cheap fuel, lack of product diversification & lack of infrastructure killed them.

Expect this might be a more unique & the way the guys were driving more fun than a Tesla.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Wow, I have never seen such move. But Tesla is the best.
> 
> Shortened warranty on a problematic part. On the older S people kept replacing drive units under warranty every 60k mi. Looks like Tesla doesn't want the same with the MCUs.
> I just noticed they shortened the warranty for replacement drive units as well, now it's 50k.
> ...


BMW replacement part within first 4 yrs/50k miles is covered until end of new car warranty, is that how Tesla works too?

It seems the wordings means if MCUs fail in, say, 1-yr/10k miles, the replacement part is only covered till 3-yr/35k miles, but not till full term of 4-yr/50k new car warranty, correct?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> BMW replacement part within first 4 yrs/50k miles is covered until end of new car warranty, is that how Tesla works too?
> 
> It seems the wordings means if MCUs fail in, say, 1-yr/10k miles, the replacement part is only covered till 3-yr/35k miles, but not till full term of 4-yr/50k new car warranty, correct?


US law isn't clear to me. But I'm originally from Europe. Over there every replacement part comes with the original warranty. If engine blows at 50k, then the warranty starts over, so it will be good until 100k. Dealer can't deviate from that. So regardless what Tesla said, it would be an additional 50k.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

bear-avhistory said:


> That goes both ways. Seems like 2 or 3 guys are here extolling the virtues of a specific brand that has nothing to do with the forums branding. Then you all turn around & complain when there is some push back.
> 
> Personally I do care what you drive. Not wedded to BMW have 5 different brands sitting in the driveway right now domestic, imported & home built.
> 
> ...


This doesn't mean I don't drive other cars. I travel overseas frequently and rent cars. Occasionally at home as well when I want to try a specific model, I rent it for a weekend. Wife's car isn't a BMW either.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> US law isn't clear to me. But I'm originally from Europe. Over there every replacement part comes with the original warranty. If engine blows at 50k, then the warranty starts over, so it will be good until 100k. Dealer can't deviate from that. So regardless what Tesla said, it would be an additional 50k.


Ah MCU fails under "Parts, Body and Paint Repair Limited Warranty", it starts from the purchase date of the (replacement) parts, so this is after first 4 years/50k miles of new car warranty.

For BMW, it is 2 years/unlimited mileages, so Tesla's 2 years/25k miles are not too bad.

https://www.tesla.com/support/vehicle-warranty

"The Tesla Parts, Body & Paint Repair Limited Warranty *begins on the purchase date of the part(s)*, and coverage extends for a period of 12 months or 12,500 miles, which ever comes first. Specific categories of parts have unique warranty coverage periods:

Sheet metal: Limited lifetime
Drive Unit: 4 years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first
Vehicle High Voltage Battery: 4 years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first*
Wall Connectors: 4 years
Touchscreen and Media Control Unit: 2 years or 25,000 miles, whichever comes first"


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

bear-avhistory said:


> ...


Not sure where you live but here in California most car brands are available on Turo. Even few years old 911s, 2017 is the newest I found.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

bear-avhistory said:


> That goes both ways. Seems like 2 or 3 guys are here extolling the virtues of a specific brand that has nothing to do with the forums branding. Then you all turn around & complain when there is some push back.


After going through less than 1/4th of Model Y teardown, my impression is that Tesla is improving, but still misses basics that are bread and butter of other premium(or even econo) brands.

E.g. Model 3/X/S(not sure about Y) has no rear door mechanical handle, hmm, how to exit rear without power?

Tesla's solution is pull handles hidden behind rubber mats and small covers ....

So my strategy is Tesla front passenger seat[/B] if needed, or as chauffeur of the group in my BMW! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01lXcD_Uz74


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

acoste said:


> This doesn't mean I don't drive other cars. I travel overseas frequently and rent cars. Occasionally at home as well when I want to try a specific model, I rent it for a weekend. Wife's car isn't a BMW either.


That's nice. I have lived overseas, still own a house in Bucks, England. During the 8 years of my residence drove Rover, Range Rover, MB, Jaguar, Porsche & BMW. Did not own any of them they were leased by the firm. We had like most British firms are car list for employees down to section manager. Was part of the compensation package. With the Road Tax & other BS just not a good plan to own a personal car in England.

Usually rented cars when across the Chanel as UK right hand drive cars are a pain in the butt on roads designed for left hand drive cars.

The wife does not have a specific car that is hers, she takes anything other than the COBRA with its heavy clutch & manual steering. She can still drive most anything, learned on a '66 GTO 4MT back in the day.

Turo has a location here in town but have not used them. Will typically go to a dealer it I want to take ride in one of their cars.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Munro Model Y teardown E10: Rear door manual lever(or lack of!)

In E10, Munro answered my question if Model Y *adds per rear door child lock switch, and mechanical door open lever*, and *the answer is no*. 

So Tesla stays steady about its decision to have hidden pull cords behind panels/covers, just like Model S/X/3.

There are Tesla forum posts that mentioned that Model Y rear doors/trunk power open buttons can be disabled in a pair, but not independently, my assumption is that Model 3/X have the same.

Some potential buyers at work drop Tesla for this specific rear door design choice.

https://www.autoblog.com/2019/02/28/tesla-fiery-crash-closer-look-door-locks/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> did have a 2013 528I that gave me the dreaded low oil pressure warning. Lucky for me I had 64K miles on it and just a few weeks prior bmw sent me an extended warranty for the timing chain to he covered up to 70K miles. The motor didn***8217;t get ruined and the dealership did the timing chain job free of charge.


Breaking news, BMWNA and plaintiffs are asking for 2 weeks extra time for the N20/N26 TC class action settlement conference.

The reason cited is: "The parties are nearing completion of a *final Settlement Agreement*".:bigpimp:

E.g. if extended to 10 years/150k miles, your replacement parts will have extended coverage too.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Breaking news, BMWNA and plaintiffs are asking for 2 weeks extra time for the N20/N26 TC class action settlement conference.
> 
> The reason cited is: "The parties are nearing completion of a *final Settlement Agreement*".:bigpimp:
> 
> E.g. if extended to 10 years/150k miles, your replacement parts will have extended coverage too.


That's good for current owners hopefully. I was lucky that mine was covered and I sold that car a year ago. I never trusted it after that, even though they claimed the new guides are improved.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> That's good for current owners hopefully. I was lucky that mine was covered and I sold that car a year ago. I never trusted it after that, even though they claimed the new guides are improved.


It is true that BMWNA never discloses the exact failure, and according to online part numbers the timing chain itself does not have updates, except for chain tensioner, and oil chain + drive.

At least if a ELW(e.g.) is available, then service will be very proactive even before CEL.

In your specific failure, was there high-pitch whines when your N20 was revved?


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> It is true that BMWNA never discloses the exact failure, and according to online part numbers the timing chain itself does not have updates, except for chain tensioner, and oil chain + drive.
> 
> At least if a ELW(e.g.) is available, then service will be very proactive even before CEL.
> 
> In your specific failure, was there high-pitch whines when your N20 was revved?


No I kept checking for strange noise but never noticed any. I got the low oil pressure a couple of times. Then I had a timing error even though it was running fine. I brought it to my indy mechanic and they couldn't fix the error and said they thought it was timing chain.

So I brought it to dealer and they diagnosed the timing chain and claimed it was now upgraded to improved guides. It was fine after that and I was lucky to get it in under 70k and repaired with no charge.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> No I kept checking for strange noise but never noticed any. I got the low oil pressure a couple of times. Then I had a timing error even though it was running fine. I brought it to my indy mechanic and they couldn't fix the error and said they thought it was timing chain.


A timing error, as in check engine light?


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> A timing error, as in check engine light?


Actually I think it was the check engine light. But I think there was another warning but can't remember what it was. I believe it was the indy that found the timing error on his scan.


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## paranoidroid (Sep 22, 2018)

bear-avhistory said:


> Just struck me as something very weird that anyone of sound mind & body with any kind of varied automotive experience could make this statement about an Tesla *"I enjoy driving the most fun and unique vehicle ever made".*
> 
> *The most fun car ever made* What kind of varied automotive experience with pure fun cars does this suggest to you?


I'm sure he was just speaking in hyperbole, but as someone who has quite a varied experience with cars and embedded in a network out here of car enthusiasts with access to almost any commercially made car - it's not too far off the mark. Perhaps more accurately stated - it's one of the most fun and unique production cars ever IMO. I don't really think he was considering the niche arena of kit cars, gutted out race cars or moon rovers.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

paranoidroid said:


> I'm sure he was just speaking in hyperbole, but as someone who has quite a varied experience with cars and embedded in a network out here of car enthusiasts with access to almost any commercially made car - it's not too far off the mark. Perhaps more accurately stated - it's one of the most fun and unique cars ever made IMO. And certainly true if one excludes home made kit cars or gutted out race cars.


Yep one of the most fun and unique cars ever made. It's always a different story when a Tesla owner responds as opposed to a Tesla hater.

That's the difference I've driven many BMW's and like I mentioned I've very much enjoyed them and think they are a great car. But sorry they don't compare to a Tesla and it's only an accurate comparison if you have actually owned both.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Yep one of the most fun and unique cars ever made. It's always a different story when a Tesla owner responds as opposed to a Tesla hater.


Maybe it is just semantics, and tongue-in-cheek, but a Tesla owner can hate a Tesla enough to return it. 

Or some Tesla owners trading in for BMWs/other brands(e.g. Model 3, occasionally at local dealer lots).

To be fair, these Tesla owners may or may not agree Tesla is most fun/unique, :dunno: but still quietly switch without attracting attentions from Tesla enthusiasts.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> Actually I think it was the check engine light. But I think there was another warning but can't remember what it was. I believe it was the indy that found the timing error on his scan.


Thanks for confirmation of CEL.:thumbup: It is good that can be triggered even without high pitch whine, and before serious engine damage is incurred.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Thanks for confirmation of CEL.:thumbup: It is good that can be triggered even without high pitch whine, and before serious engine damage is incurred.


Timing error is likely when the chain tensioner breaks.

The engine was running on lower oil pressure though. That's not fun.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> Yep one of the most fun and unique cars ever made. It's always a different story when a Tesla owner responds as opposed to a Tesla hater.
> 
> That's the difference I've driven many BMW's and like I mentioned I've very much enjoyed them and think they are a great car. But sorry they don't compare to a Tesla and it's only an accurate comparison if you have actually owned both.


They do compare. I drove the 2018 M3 and the Model 3 perf around the same time when they came out. M3 handles much better. The only pro for the Model 3 was the acceleration. Rest is a meh.


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Maybe it is just semantics, and tongue-in-cheek, but a Tesla owner can hate a Tesla enough to return it.
> 
> Or some Tesla owners trading in for BMWs/other brands(e.g. Model 3, occasionally at local dealer lots).
> 
> To be fair, these Tesla owners may or may not agree Tesla is most fun/unique, :dunno: but still quietly switch without attracting attentions from Tesla enthusiasts.


I'm sure there are some Tesla owners that were unhappy and changed vehicles. But there aren't many, I've yet to talk to a Tesla owner that wasn't in love with their car and only want a Tesla in the future.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

acoste said:


> They do compare. I drove the 2018 M3 and the Model 3 perf around the same time when they came out. M3 handles much better. The only pro for the Model 3 was the acceleration. Rest is a meh.


and I'm not alone with this


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

acoste said:


> They do compare. I drove the 2018 M3 and the Model 3 perf around the same time when they came out. M3 handles much better. The only pro for the Model 3 was the acceleration. Rest is a meh.


In what way does a m3 handle better? Because the model 3 can really handle aggressive cornering, with the battery weight being so low it really makes the car stable.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

mull6 said:


> In what way does a m3 handle better? Because the model 3 can really handle aggressive cornering, with the battery weight being so low it really makes the car stable.


I have active sway bars on the 550i. Has no tilt in the curves. Even this car feels better than the Model 3.

I don't know how to describe the difference. I feel more in control.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> In what way does a m3 handle better? Because the model 3 can really handle aggressive cornering, with the battery weight being so low it really makes the car stable.


Top gears showed Model 3 beat M3 in straight line and lap time, but gave M3 a point on drift and driving fun, the tester's assertion was that Model 3 drifts by algorithm.

Maybe Tesla owners should try out K1 racing and experience pure form of EV driving fun. 

Carlos did enjoy driving model 3 RWD more than G20 330i on track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSRWKxytW40

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpFe8k1vjcg


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I have active sway bars on the 550i. Has no tilt in the curves. Even this car feels better than the Model 3.
> 
> I don't know how to describe the difference. I feel more in control.


My guess is that this is analogous to nanny controls that BMW purists complain about on the latest cars.

Tesla/Model 3 takes nanny controls to the next level when, as the Top Gear test says, ".... the car does not want to go sideways, but the computer/algorithm tells it to do so".

It may be true that drivers can adapt to tools in hand, and adjust accordingly to the algorithms and interference, and make the best use of the tools.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> My guess is that this is analogous to nanny controls that BMW purists complain about on the latest cars.
> 
> Tesla/Model 3 takes nanny controls to the next level when, as the Top Gear test says, ".... the car does not want to go sideways, but the computer/algorithm tells it to do so".
> 
> It may be true that drivers can adapt to tools in hand, and adjust accordingly to the algorithms and interference, and make the best use of the tools.


 One of the things about Teslas that is a game changer when it comes to cars is their over the air updates that can change the cars quite dramatically. One of those changes is what has been done to track mode on the Model 3 Performance. The Track Mode V2 update came out about 4 months ago, and allows configuration of the vehicle's responses at the limit.

You want to drift? No problem. You like a car that oversteers at the limit? No problem. You like a car that understeers at the limit? No problem. And you can do this with just a few adjustments on the touch screen, even while you're moving. Try that with your M3. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqDcZO7ZiVw&t=209s


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## mull6 (May 4, 2013)

namelessman said:


> Top gears showed Model 3 beat M3 in straight line and lap time, but gave M3 a point on drift and driving fun, the tester's assertion was that Model 3 drifts by algorithm.
> 
> Maybe Tesla owners should try out K1 racing and experience pure form of EV driving fun.
> 
> ...


So the Tesla beat the bmw but the guy felt sorry for them so he gave bmw a bonus point.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> One of the things about Teslas that is a game changer when it comes to cars is their over the air updates that can change the cars quite dramatically. One of those changes is what has been done to track mode on the Model 3 Performance. The Track Mode V2 update came out about 4 months ago, and allows configuration of the vehicle's responses at the limit.
> 
> You want to drift? No problem. You like a car that oversteers at the limit? No problem. You like a car that understeers at the limit? No problem. And you can do this with just a few adjustments on the touch screen, even while you're moving. Try that with your M3.


It already behaves the way I like from the factory. So can't care less about OTA. Tesla needed OTA because they want to ship beta versions years before the design is completed.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> It already behaves the way I like from the factory. So can't care less about OTA. Tesla needed OTA because they want to ship beta versions years before the design is completed.


:rofl:


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> :rofl:


What? You needed a fart app?

There are things which even OTA can't solve

https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...jor-quality-control-problems-with-the-model-y


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> What? You needed a fart app?
> 
> There are things which even OTA can't solve
> 
> https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...jor-quality-control-problems-with-the-model-y


Perhaps if it were a unicorn farting rainbows you'd like it.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

mull6 said:


> So the Tesla beat the bmw but the guy felt sorry for them so he gave bmw a bonus point.


It does look that way. 

From another perspective, the algorithms and such can gradually eliminate human input from the process, so the driving fun is becoming more simulated/synthesized than tactile.

That was the big debate among festers of MT versus ZF 8AT, auto rev match, and even e-diff(and extra rear brake wears!), Tesla just takes it to the next level of making the human drivers optional/obsolete.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> It does look that way.
> 
> From another perspective, the algorithms and such can gradually eliminate human input from the process, so the driving fun is becoming more simulated/synthesized than tactile.
> 
> That was the big debate among festers of MT versus ZF 8AT, auto rev match, and even e-diff(and extra rear brake wears!), Tesla just takes it to the next level of making the human drivers optional/obsolete.


Everyone who sits in the Taycan says it handles incredibly well. Not in the same category as its weight would suggest. One guy said it is in the league of the 911 GT2 RS. It just handles great and that's mostly achieved by electronics (of course it needs the excellent hardware as well). This is a knowhow BMW, Porsche and other experienced groups have.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Everyone who sits in the Taycan says it handles incredibly well. Not in the same category as its weight would suggest. One guy said it is in the league of the 911 GT2 RS. It just handles great and that's mostly achieved by electronics (of course it needs the excellent hardware as well). This is a knowhow BMW, Porsche and other experienced groups have.


Taycan does have rear door manual levers! 

There is no personal experience driving a Taycan to contrast with Tesla/Model 3, but Porsche's build quality should be better than Telsa, e.g. Porsche(like BMW) does not skip on paint under the hood! :thumbup:


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> One of the things about Teslas that is a game changer when it comes to cars is their over the air updates that can change the cars quite dramatically. One of those changes is what has been done to track mode on the Model 3 Performance. The Track Mode V2 update came out about 4 months ago, and allows configuration of the vehicle's responses at the limit.
> 
> You want to drift? No problem. You like a car that oversteers at the limit? No problem. You like a car that understeers at the limit? No problem. And you can do this with just a few adjustments on the touch screen, even while you're moving. Try that with your M3.


OTA can be double-edged swords, e.g. things can be improved, or worsened ....

Also note that OTA's basically are real-time debug/trial runs for engineers without loaners. 

And OTA cannot fix everything, e.g. panel gaps, missing clips/connectors, paint quality, design choices(e.g. door mechanical lever), use(or lack of) corrugated tubes, etc, etc.

Those are hardware issues/choices that OTA cannot touch.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> OTA can be double-edged swords, e.g. things can be improved, or worsened ....
> 
> Also note that OTA's basically are real-time debug/trial runs for engineers without loaners.
> 
> ...


 OTA is a paradigm changer for cars. With other manufacturers' cars, you get the cars as delivered and that's it. You have to wait until the next model year to see if they make any improvements, and then if you want those improvements, you have to buy a new car. Tesla has turned that notion on its head to the benefit of the consumer.

Here's just a partial list of the improvements that my car has received via OTA updates since I bought it 19 months ago, all at no cost.
- 2 power improvements of about 5% each
- improved charging rates at Superchargers, first from 120kWh to 150kWh, and then from 150kWh to 250kWh
- Voice control of almost all car functions, initially it was only for navigation and media control
- Sentry mode to make video recordings of those who get too close to the car
- Built-in dashcam with viewer
- Pet mode to allow climate control to run with pets in the car
- Substantially improved auto-pilot operation
- One pedal driving mode

Actually, here's a link to someone who compiled a list of OTA updates.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vdCt-toHxtSxGqNgOu9Fngl1-01DfnZn-RklDj_IdHc/edit#gid=0

As for actual physical parts, Tesla is the same as any other car.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> OTA is a paradigm changer for cars. With other manufacturers' cars, you get the cars as delivered and that's it. You have to wait until the next model year to see if they make any improvements, and then if you want those improvements, you have to buy a new car. Tesla has turned that notion on its head to the benefit of the consumer.
> 
> Here's just a partial list of the improvements that my car has received via OTA updates since I bought it 19 months ago, all at no cost.
> - 2 power improvements of about 5% each
> ...


As mentioned it wasn't ready when it was released to production. What held them back implementing the features above before they started selling them?

I hope others won't follow on starting production with half baked cars. Problem is when one cheats others fall behind by playing it fair.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> As mentioned it wasn't ready when it was released to production. What held them back implementing the features above before they started selling them?
> 
> I hope others won't follow on starting production with half baked cars. Problem is when one cheats others fall behind by playing it fair.


By that definition, all cars are half baked as delivered, from any manufacturer, since all cars can be improved. In fact, all products of any kind by anybody are "half baked". What makes Teslas different from most cars is that a lot more of their operation is controlled by computer. As a result, the possibilities for improvement via software updates are much more extensive than most cars.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> As for actual physical parts, Tesla is the same as any other car.


Munro picked on Model 3's physical parts(unfortunately no detailed teardown series like Model Y), and specifically pointed out why they(rear unibody(?), wheel well, bolts, etc, etc) are subpar.

These physical parts stay with the car. Specifically, the chassis related parts cannot be easily fixed without teardown.

Model Y appears to be improving.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Here's just a partial list of the improvements that my car has received via OTA updates since I bought it 19 months ago, all at no cost.
> - 2 power improvements of about 5% each
> - improved charging rates at Superchargers, first from 120kWh to 150kWh, and then from 150kWh to 250kWh
> - Voice control of almost all car functions, initially it was only for navigation and media control
> ...


OTA, or software updates, are bread and butter of tech companies. Some automakers picked up that practice long before Tesla, but allegedly bricked the cars(Cadillac CUE?) in the process. 

In general the above Model 3 OTA lists look like feature lists that couldn't be delivered at initial rollout, so engineers gradually caught up and pushed out the features(similar to iPhone/Android/Windows).

This tactic also nicely masks software-based SIB/recall/bug fixes while customers are dazzled by extra goodies.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Munro picked on Model 3's physical parts(unfortunately no detailed teardown series like Model Y), and specifically pointed out why they(rear unibody(?), wheel well, bolts, etc, etc) are subpar.
> 
> These physical parts stay with the car. Specifically, the chassis related parts cannot be easily fixed without teardown.
> 
> Model Y appears to be improving.


 And Munro found other physical parts of the Model 3 to be superior. All cars have some better parts and some worse parts. That is why there is so much competition. If someone ever built the perfect car, no one else would be able to compete. 

Also, regarding the rear unibody on the Model 3, Munro didn't have any complaint about it functioning properly or being strong enough. His complaints were that it was overly expensive to produce and heavier than it needed to be. It's not like say e36 and e46 rear unibodies that have a tendency to crack. I consider a tendency for the unibody to crack, as being far more subpar than being difficult to manufacture and a little heavy.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> OTA, or software updates, are bread and butter of tech companies. Some automakers picked up that practice long before Tesla, but allegedly bricked the cars(Cadillac CUE?) in the process.
> 
> In general the above Model 3 OTA lists look like feature lists that couldn't be delivered at initial rollout, so engineers gradually caught up and pushed out the features(similar to iPhone/Android/Windows).


Feature lists not being able to be delivered at initial rollout is the case with every car ever produced. Car manufacturers, other than Tesla, rarely, if ever, make any of the new features available on their previously produced cars. Part of it is undoubtedly intended to create additional incentive for customers to buy a new car every couple of years due to planned obsolescence. They do this even if the hardware itself wouldn't need to be changed to implement the new feature(s).

Tesla is taking a tech company type approach, as you noted, and making it work. Since Tesla made the decision to not build planned obsolescence into their cars, they were able to design them to allow much more future upgradeability than other car manufacturers. No other car manufacturer to date has made a significant effort to really make OTA work, and I think it's unlikely that they will until they don't have a choice. Whether they have a choice or not will depend on Tesla's future success, since they are the only competition out there really using OTA updates in a significant fashion.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> And Munro found other physical parts of the Model 3 to be superior. All cars have some better parts and some worse parts. That is why there is so much competition. If someone ever built the perfect car, no one else would be able to compete.
> 
> Also, regarding the rear unibody on the Model 3, Munro didn't have any complaint about it functioning properly or being strong enough. His complaints were that it was overly expensive to produce and heavier than it needed to be. It's not like say e36 and e46 rear unibodies that have a tendency to crack. I consider a tendency for the unibody to crack, as being far more subpar than being difficult to manufacture and a little heavy.


Yeah, that subframe cracking is horrible. Usually seen on cars of 10+ years old, rather 15.

Meanwhile Tesla doesn't have issues with delivering cracked new cars

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/9093/brand-new-tesla-model-s-delivered-with-cracked-a-pillar

But weldings don't hold for long either

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-x-weld-seam-cracking.100798/

#safestcar


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Yeah, that subframe cracking is horrible. Usually seen on cars of 10+ years old, rather 15.
> 
> Meanwhile Tesla doesn't have issues with delivering cracked new cars
> 
> ...


 Oh please, every car company has occasional problems where a few cars aren't made properly, which is what you gave examples of with Tesla. It's rare for it to be a design problem and for the problem to be so bad that they have to issue a recall on many thousands of cars as BMW had to do with e36s and e46s. I think it's safe to say that BMW has had far more structural unibody problems than Tesla.

P.S. I initially received the recall notice on my 330i when it was 7 years old.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Oh please, every car company has occasional problems where a few cars aren't made properly, which is what you gave examples of with Tesla. It's rare for it to be a design problem and for the problem to be so bad that they have to issue a recall on many thousands of cars as BMW had to do with e36s and e46s. I think it's safe to say that BMW has had far more structural unibody problems than Tesla.
> 
> P.S. I initially received the recall notice on my 330i when it was 7 years old.


There is hardly any fester complaints about cracked frame and subpar welds fresh from BMW factories though.

The E46 rear subframe issues seem to be undiagnosed worn rear subframe bushings with miles/age/spirited driving that eventually lead to floorboard taking loads that are out-of-spec.

http://speed.academy/bmw-e46-cracked-subframe-fix/

That's very different from cracks on sheet metal and welds right off the Tesla factory with no wear and tear.

And most Model 3's are still relatively new. With the kind of Model 3 unibody issues mentioned by Munro, it is yet to be seen if any real issue will materialize with miles and age.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> There is hardly any fester complaints about cracked frame and subpar welds fresh from BMW factories though.


And there's "hardly any" complaints about cracked frames or defective welds fresh from Tesla factories either. If you want to see complaints about cracked frames or defective welds fresh from the factory, check out 2018-2019 Jeep Wranglers.



namelessman said:


> The E46 rear subframe issues seem to be undiagnosed worn rear subframe bushings with miles/age/spirited driving that eventually lead to floorboard taking loads that are out-of-spec.
> 
> http://speed.academy/bmw-e46-cracked-subframe-fix/


Um, your link says the following, in the first paragraph.


> But the rear subframe issue is the real Achilles heel of the E46. And it has nothing to do with how modified the car is. *I've seen it on unmodified cars, early models, late models, low mileage, and high mileage.* Every E46 I've seen has this problem. And the s***ty thing is to fully check a car, you have to remove everything in the rear, so you might as well repair it while you have the subframe and all out. Which means if your car hasn't had this done, you will be doing it.


Also, if it were just due to worn bushings or spirited driving, BMW wouldn't have had to issue a recall.



namelessman said:


> That's very different from cracks on sheet metal and welds right off the Tesla factory with no wear and tear.
> 
> And most Model 3's are still relatively new. With the kind of Model 3 unibody issues mentioned by Munro, it is yet to be seen if any real issue will materialize with miles and age.


If anything, Munro was saying that the rear unibody on the Model 3 was overbuilt, so I think it's quite unlikely that Model 3s will have the problems with the rear unibody that the E46s have suffered.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> Um, your link says the following, in the first paragraph.
> Also, if it were just due to worn bushings or spirited driving, BMW wouldn't have had to issue a recall.


That guy doesn't sound credible. Right after that sentence he says every E46 he saw had this issue. Yeah. Maybe mine too which is well past 200k mi, must be an invisible issue then. Since I don't see any cracks.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> That guy doesn't sound credible. Right after that sentence he says every E46 he saw had this issue. Yeah. Maybe mine too which is well past 200k mi, must be an invisible issue then. Since I don't see any cracks.


 It was namelessman's link. I tend to question it as well since I have 150k on my car and haven't noticed any issues. That said, if it's small cracks, it probably wouldn't be noticeable from a driving perspective, and as the guy said, to find those small cracks would require removing the rear subframe, a not trivial job.

In any case, the rear unibody cracking on E46s is common enough that I think it is apparent that BMW under designed it. The reality is that most cars have some design flaws, hopefully not as difficult or expensive to fix as the E46 unibody.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> And there's "hardly any" complaints about cracked frames or defective welds fresh from Tesla factories either. If you want to see complaints about cracked frames or defective welds fresh from the factory, check out 2018-2019 Jeep Wranglers.


acoste's links from post#4160 show complaints of visible weld and cracked frames on pretty new Tesla.

In contrast, and "hardly any" similar fester complaints on BMWs from BMW factory, as in "almost none".

If there are such complaints please share the links, it would be of interest to read about those.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> It was namelessman's link. I tend to question it as well since I have 150k on my car and haven't noticed any issues. That said, if it's small cracks, it probably wouldn't be noticeable from a driving perspective, and as the guy said, to find those small cracks would require removing the rear subframe, a not trivial job.
> 
> In any case, the rear unibody cracking on E46s is common enough that I think it is apparent that BMW under designed it. The reality is that most cars have some design flaws, hopefully not as difficult or expensive to fix as the E46 unibody.


Once again the honest BMW owners that keep BMW honest, maybe the Tesla owners should do the same and keep Tesla honest. 

The kinds of visible frame/weld/unibody design flaws of Tesla are not cheap to fix, and as Munro showed, Tesla did eventually fix them, in Model Y!

The one advantage of Model 3 is its 1000-pound frame brace aka battery pack, maybe that is enough to compensate for any other frame/unibody related issues.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> That guy doesn't sound credible. Right after that sentence he says every E46 he saw had this issue. Yeah. Maybe mine too which is well past 200k mi, must be an invisible issue then. Since I don't see any cracks.


Were your E46 rear subframe bushings replaced, or are they still factory parts?


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> acoste's links from post#4160 show complaints of visible weld and cracked frames on pretty new Tesla.


2 links. Where are the hundreds or thousands of complaints? Where is the recall?


namelessman said:


> In contrast, and "hardly any" similar fester complaints on BMWs from BMW factory, as in "almost none".
> 
> If there are such complaints please share the links, it would be of interest to read about those.


Oh please, get real. There was a frickin' recall for the E46 unibody. Do you think that manufacturers like BMW issue recalls for just a few complaints? Stop being so ridiculous.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Once again the honest BMW owners that keep BMW honest, maybe the Tesla owners should do the same and keep Tesla honest.
> 
> The kinds of visible frame/weld/unibody design flaws of Tesla are not cheap to fix, and as Munro showed, Tesla did eventually fix them, in Model Y!
> 
> The one advantage of Model 3 is its 1000-pound frame brace aka battery pack, maybe that is enough to compensate for any other frame/unibody related issues.


 Munro didn't show any "frame/weld/unibody design flaws" that would require repair. There was no fix required. He just pointed out what was poor from a cost and manufacturing efficiency standpoint.

Do you really understand as little about design and manufacturing as your posts here would seem to indicate? Do you not understand what a manufacturing engineer and consultant like Sandy Munro does?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Were your E46 rear subframe bushings replaced, or are they still factory parts?


Still factory bushings.

This cracking issue happens to manuals and M3s. Rare to see them on automatics as these latter build up the torque smoother.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> 2 links. Where are the hundreds or thousands of complaints? Where is the recall?
> 
> Oh please, get real. There was a frickin' recall for the E46 unibody. Do you think that manufacturers like BMW issue recalls for just a few complaints? Stop being so ridiculous.


Tesla got away with many things without recalls. Battery issue is a clear example of that. Model 3 missing/loose suspension bolts. I guess this latter stayed under the radar because there aren't many independent Tesla repair shops.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> 2 links. Where are the hundreds or thousands of complaints? Where is the recall?
> 
> Oh please, get real. There was a frickin' recall for the E46 unibody. Do you think that manufacturers like BMW issue recalls for just a few complaints? Stop being so ridiculous.


Your expertise to mix two different statements together into one demonstrates unparalleled finesse and deceit.

Again, the lack of recall of *frame cracks on brand new Tesla*, should not be of comfort to any Tesla owner.

On the other hand, complaint of *frame cracks on brand new BMW's* is unheard of on BF. If there is any(BF or others) please forward the link.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Munro didn't show any "frame/weld/unibody design flaws" that would require repair. There was no fix required. He just pointed out what was poor from a cost and manufacturing efficiency standpoint.
> 
> Do you really understand as little about design and manufacturing as your posts here would seem to indicate? Do you not understand what a manufacturing engineer and consultant like Sandy Munro does?


It is convenient to categorize issues uncovered by Munro as just "poor from a cost and manufacturing efficiency standpoint", but let's assume that is the case.

Combined those alleged cost and manufacturing issues with *cracked frames on brand new Tesla fresh from factory* creates a new class of problems that honest Tesla owners should ponder on.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Still factory bushings.
> 
> This cracking issue happens to manuals and M3s. Rare to see them on automatics as these latter build up the torque smoother.


The link of post#4162 seems to be a track rat bunch that may encounter E46 MT's/M3's that are driven far and hard, non-spirited driving probably does not stress out rear sub-frame bushing and floorboards as much. 

BTW E39 MT's/M5's have engine mount issues(e.g. V8) that show up more on hard-driven cars than hardly pushed ones.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Yeah, that subframe cracking is horrible. Usually seen on cars of 10+ years old, rather 15.
> 
> Meanwhile Tesla doesn't have issues with delivering cracked new cars
> 
> ...


 Tesla stood behind the Model S with the cracked A pillar and is replacing the car.

As for your statement that "weldings don't hold for long either", if you had bothered to read through the thread, you would have found that is an incorrect statement. The crack was in a seam filler, not a weld. It was a cosmetic issue, not structural.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Your expertise to mix two different statements together into one demonstrates unparalleled finesse and deceit.
> 
> Again, the lack of recall of *frame cracks on brand new Tesla*, should not be of comfort to any Tesla owner.
> 
> On the other hand, complaint of *frame cracks on brand new BMW's* is unheard of on BF. If there is any(BF or others) please forward the link.


I'm really not particularly concerned with the occasional assembly or construction problem on a vehicle. This happens with every vehicle out there, and is covered by either a warranty or lemon law. Having a design flaw where the problem occurs far down the road and is not covered by warranties or lemon laws is actually a more heinous problem as far as I'm concerned. Therefore, I see the E46 unibody cracking as a significantly worse problem than the one instance that has been posted here of Tesla frame cracks.


----------



## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> It is convenient to categorize issues uncovered by Munro as just "poor from a cost and manufacturing efficiency standpoint", but let's assume that is the case.
> 
> Combined those alleged cost and manufacturing issues with *cracked frames on brand new Tesla fresh from factory* creates a new class of problems that honest Tesla owners should ponder on.


One cracked frame on the over half a million cars Tesla has produced over the last 10 years simply doesn't warrant your hysteria.


----------



## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I'm really not particularly concerned with the *occasional* assembly or construction problem on a vehicle. This happens with every vehicle out there, and is *covered by either a warranty or lemon law*. Having a design flaw where the problem occurs far down the road and is not covered by warranties or lemon laws is actually a more heinous problem as far as I'm concerned. Therefore, I see the E46 unibody cracking as a significantly worse problem than the one instance that has been posted here of Tesla frame cracks.


Honest owners usually do not take these issues lightly, but there seems to be Tesla owners that think otherwise.

At least inquisitive minds may search for clues of the failure models, maybe the robot just happened to sneeze *occasionally*? 

Also, to use your logic, the E46 unibody issue is A-OK, since it is covered by recall/class action. 



namelessman said:


> That is an example that manufacturer *skipping reliability fresh out of factory and/or past 100-150k miles and beyond will pay*.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> One cracked frame on the over half a million cars Tesla has produced over the last 10 years simply doesn't warrant your *hysteria*.


There is agreement of at least one.

Inquisitive minds may ponder how many are unreported, esp. voicing any concern will bring *hysteria* from Tesla cult members?  :dunno:


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Honest owners usually do not take these issues lightly, but there seems to be Tesla owners that think otherwise.
> 
> At least inquisitive minds may search for clues of the failure models, maybe the robot just happened to sneeze *occasionally*?
> 
> Also, to use your logic, the E46 unibody issue is A-OK, since it is covered by recall/class action.


There was a time limit on any claims where they had to be filed by a certain date, sometime in 2010 if I recall correctly. If the problem occurs after that, you're SOL. Therefore, the E46 unibody issue is NOT "A-OK". It is a perfect example of why it is much better to have a problem when you first get a new car, rather than a ticking time bomb which can kick in many miles and years down the line.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> It is a perfect example of why it is much better to have a problem when you first get a new car, rather than a ticking time bomb which can kick in many miles and years down the line.


So is your plan to tear down your Model 3 to check for those problems on a brand new car?

It is a "much better" problem only if owners know about it.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> So is your plan to tear down your Model 3 to check for those problems on a brand new car?
> 
> It is a "much better" problem only if owners know about it.


Wow, can you get any more silly? If we use your convoluted logic here, every car should be torn down when you first get it to check for problems.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> There was a time limit on any claims where they had to be filed by a certain date, sometime in 2010 if I recall correctly. If the problem occurs after that, you're SOL. Therefore, the E46 unibody issue is NOT "A-OK". It is a perfect example of why it is much better to have a problem when you first get a new car, rather than a ticking time bomb which can kick in many miles and years down the line.


An inquisitive Tesla owner(Model 3 lease, no worries) at work forwarded this, asking this to be shared.

This 6-year old Model S [email protected] The affected Model S owner(paid out-of-pocket for the repair) specifically mentioned E46:

"The only analogy I can find is the BMW E46 3 Series where the subframe was pulling against the unibody and causing cracks in the body. *Guess what BMW did. Ten years of goodwill repairs regardless of mileage and design changes to stop the issue.* In my case, they were just planning on sending the subframe off to recycling and moving on."

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...normal-wear-and-tear-by-tesla-service.135408/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Wow, can you get any more silly? If we use your convoluted logic here, every car should be torn down when you first get it to check for problems.


Honestly logic like".... it is much better to have a problem when you first get a new car, rather than a ticking time bomb which can kick in many miles and years down the line" is what inquisitive minds usually label as bull****, but Tesla cult members appear to not care, or not honest enough to keep Tesla honest, and that is unfortunate. 

As far as the term "tear down", for those paying attention to Munro's Model Y teardown series, simply unscrewing/removing frunk panel are steps of tear down.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Honestly logic like".... it is much better to have a problem when you first get a new car, rather than a ticking time bomb which can kick in many miles and years down the line" is what inquisitive minds usually label as bull****, but Tesla cult members appear to not care, or not honest enough to keep Tesla honest, and that is unfortunate.


The only bull**** around here is what you keep trying to pass off. Boring.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> The only bull**** around here is what you keep trying to pass off. Boring.


Emotionless inquisitive minds do not take bull****, and intend not to spread bull****. 

E.g. inquisitive minds(including those who own Tesla) looking at the Tesla owner's fiasco of cracked [email protected] or brand new acknowledge the issue, that is all.:thumbup:


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

GregD said:


> There was a time limit on any claims where they had to be filed by a certain date, sometime in 2010 if I recall correctly. If the problem occurs after that, you're SOL. Therefore, the E46 unibody issue is NOT "A-OK". It is a perfect example of why it is much better to have a problem when you first get a new car, rather than a ticking time bomb which can kick in many miles and years down the line.


I don't get this logic either. Only obvious issues surface right after purchase. Hiddens remain hidden until they cause an issue. A visible cracked frame suggests there is more under the hood.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> I don't get this logic either. Only obvious issues surface right after purchase. Hiddens remain hidden until they cause an issue. A visible cracked frame suggests there is more under the hood.


Check out the picture on link of post#4189, Tesla basically disassembled the whole car to get to damaged part.

The owner paid $2035 to fix, which was not that bad, but do read that the owner started hearing THUNK THUNK THUNK just backing out of parking spot, just imagine what can happen if this breaks at highway speed/on track.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Check out the picture on link of post#4189, Tesla basically disassembled the whole car to get to damaged part.
> 
> The owner paid $2035 to fix, which was not that bad, but do read that the owner started hearing THUNK THUNK THUNK just backing out of parking spot, just imagine what can happen if this breaks at highway speed/on track.


Model S front suspension failure at 35k mi

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...ractured-while-driving-at-55mph-video.199103/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Model S front suspension failure at 35k mi
> 
> https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...ractured-while-driving-at-55mph-video.199103/


The OP says that the car is CPO with aftermarket sensor installed by previous owner to keep air suspension low, and Tesla paid for repair as the CPO inspection did not find this sensor.

So this case is not a Tesla factory/reliability issue.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> The OP says that the car is CPO with aftermarket sensor installed by previous owner to keep air suspension low, and Tesla paid for repair as the CPO inspection did not find this sensor.
> 
> So this case is not a Tesla factory/reliability issue.


Only because a car is lowered suspension shouldn't fall apart.


----------



## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)




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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> ....


Is there a link to this thread of Model 3 buyback?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> Is there a link to this thread of Model 3 buyback?


No, it's on the Porsche forum. When I was searching for it I found this one: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...and-poor-customer-service-arbitration.186326/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> No, it's on the Porsche forum. When I was searching for it I found this one: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/thr...and-poor-customer-service-arbitration.186326/


Thanks for the link.:thumbup: There seems to be more of this type of complaints posted on Tesla forum than in the past.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> Only because a car is lowered suspension shouldn't fall apart.


The thread does not elaborate, but aftermarket suspension mod may lower further than factory spec allows.

Similarly bimmer mods can stretch stock parts beyond factory spec leading to stock part failures.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

namelessman said:


> The thread does not elaborate, but aftermarket suspension mod may lower further than factory spec allows.
> 
> Similarly bimmer mods can stretch stock parts beyond factory spec leading to stock part failures.


He bought it from Tesla that way. It wasn't lowered to the floor. Nothing extreme.

I see tons of suspension failure with the Model S. Something is wrong there with the build quality.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

acoste said:


> He bought it from Tesla that way. It wasn't lowered to the floor. Nothing extreme.
> 
> I see tons of suspension failure with the Model S. Something is wrong there with the build quality.


https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/sets/72157658490111523/


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/sets/72157658490111523/


Wow thanks for the link.:thumbup: These are not good at all.

E.g. the first incident was just 2.5 months ago.

A 3-year old Model S with 20k miles and rear wheels falling [email protected]?!?:yikes:

Is there any NHTSA case on this yet?


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

"Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers' calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car - a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: German manufacturers don't release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters. Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: "OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it&#8230; - But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models&#8230; - Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to&#8230; - Even if it involves recalling some cars? - Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla's main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC)."

https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-former-vp-quality-explains-issues/


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> "Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers' calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car - a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: German manufacturers don't release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters. Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: "OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it&#8230; - But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models&#8230; - Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to&#8230; - Even if it involves recalling some cars? - Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla's main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC)."
> 
> https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-former-vp-quality-explains-issues/


You forgot the part where Tesla's power train did easily exceed 1,000,000 miles of operation. This testing was also completed in October of 2018 only a short time after production was started, so if a recall was needed it would not have affected very many units.

If Elon took the time to do things the way the Germans do he would be releasing a very spectacular, super reliable and very refined electric car, sometime in 2025, well after his capital was gone and his competitors had eaten his lunch.

https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> You forgot the part where Tesla's power train did easily exceed 1,000,000 miles of operation. This testing was also completed in October of 2018 only a short time after production was started, so if a recall was needed it would not have affected very many units.
> 
> If Elon took the time to do things the way the Germans do he would be releasing a very spectacular, super reliable and very refined electric car, sometime in 2025, well after his capital was gone and his competitors had eaten his lunch.
> 
> https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-drive-after-million-miles-test/


Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a "short time". Specially in the lab.

1M mi / 60mph = 16.7k hours = 694 days


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a "short time". Specially in the lab.
> 
> 1M mi / 60mph = 16.7k hours = 694 days


Yes, I also know how to do math.

Most ICE cars will never see anywhere near 1M miles before they are disposed of. Even high mileage drivers that put 50K miles a year need 20 years to do that.

As "trivial" as you say it is, Toyota sure ran some big ads when a few of their truck owners passed the million mile mark. How much do you think the maintenance costs on those trucks were to get to 1M miles? How many oil changes, belt changes, valve adjustments, transmission fluid, etc?

The reality is that barring some kind of manufacturing defect in a particular copy of one of Tesla's motors they are far more likely to get to 1M miles with no drama than any complicated ICE system that has thousands of moving parts.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a "short time". Specially in the lab.
> 
> 1M mi / 60mph = 16.7k hours = 694 days


Do any manufacturers of ICE engines for regular passenger cars do such tests? If so, do you have a link? I can see doing such tests with engines for long haul semis or something similar, but why would anyone normally do such tests for passenger cars?


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

GregD said:


> Do any manufacturers of ICE engines for regular passenger cars do such tests? If so, do you have a link? I can see doing such tests with engines for long haul semis or something similar, but why would anyone normally do such tests for passenger cars?


His original comment claimed that a former Tesla VP with a German manufacturing background complained that new German engine designs need to do 2M Kilometers before they would be put into production. No idea on this is true or not or what the testing regimen is.

I stand by my comment that a Tesla electric motor is a lot more likely to make it to 1M, and with zero maintenance, than any ICE engine/transmission.

The only weak component on the Tesla car if you can call it weak is the battery. That won't make it to 1M miles with the original range, but some new innovations in battery technology could make that possible sooner rather than later.

Quite a lot of Model S/X in the fleet still have over 80% original range after well over 200K miles. In fact a lot of them still have around 90% original range after 6+ years of use and 100K+ miles and man of these cars are in countries like Norway where they have the added abuse of dealing with extreme temperatures.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> His original comment claimed that a former Tesla VP with a German manufacturing background complained that new German engine designs need to do 2M Kilometers before they would be put into production. No idea on this is true or not or what the testing regimen is.
> 
> I stand by my comment that a Tesla electric motor is a lot more likely to make it to 1M, and with zero maintenance, than any ICE engine/transmission.
> 
> ...


Not the engine but the WHOLE CAR

"don***8217;t release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters"

And this is combined testing miles. Not 1 car.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> Not the engine but the WHOLE CAR
> 
> "don't release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters"


Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of that but do go on.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

voip-ninja said:


> Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of that but do go on.


VW had about 1000 test cars for ID3. Audi had about 400. Taycan had 600.

It's ok to be skeptical. Doesn't change anything.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> VW had about 1000 test cars for ID3. Audi had about 400. Taycan had 600.
> 
> It's ok to be skeptical. Doesn't change anything.


I thought we were talking about ICE programs and how that was the standard.

Musk takes risks. As I said previously, he has an enormous incentive to take some gambles and it also demonstrates that he has a lot of confidence in his EV engineers which are considered to be some of, if not the very best, on the planet.

ICE manufacturers have almost zero incentive to take risks in their EV programs. If anything they'd be happy if they didn't need to compete in the EV space and could just continue building ICE for the next 100 yrs.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> His original comment claimed that a former Tesla VP with a German manufacturing background complained that new German engine designs need to do 2M Kilometers before they would be put into production. No idea on this is true or not or what the testing regimen is.


I might have missed it, but the part I saw acoste post said, "German manufacturers don't release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters." That may very well be the case, but they're obviously not clocking up 10 million kilometers on one car or one engine; that takes a whole fleet of cars to accomplish. He also stated that, "Most ICE engines can do 1M mile in a 'short time'. Specially in the lab." While that maybe theoretically possible, just by calculating time at speed; I seriously question how many passenger car ICE engines could actually accomplish this, if any.


voip-ninja said:


> I stand by my comment that a Tesla electric motor is a lot more likely to make it to 1M, and with zero maintenance, than any ICE engine/transmission.


I totally agree, since Tesla has stated that they designed the motor to last that long. I don't think I've ever heard of any passenger car manufacturer declaring that they designed their engine to last 1M miles.


voip-ninja said:


> The only weak component on the Tesla car if you can call it weak is the battery. That won't make it to 1M miles with the original range, but some new innovations in battery technology could make that possible sooner rather than later.
> 
> Quite a lot of Model S/X in the fleet still have over 80% original range after well over 200K miles. In fact a lot of them still have around 90% original range after 6+ years of use and 100K+ miles and man of these cars are in countries like Norway where they have the added abuse of dealing with extreme temperatures.


While the Tesla motors may last 1M miles, I don't think the rest of the car will hold up that long. There are lots of other parts, even on a Tesla, and my expectation is that most Teslas will not be worth fixing at some point well under 1M miles. My hope is that it will be the norm to get at least 200k miles out of a Model 3 without having to put big money into it for repairs, and with it still being a nice vehicle. I don't know if I'll keep my Model 3 that long, but if it does hold up that well, the resale should be excellent.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

acoste said:


> VW had about 1000 test cars for ID3. Audi had about 400. Taycan had 600.
> 
> It's ok to be skeptical. Doesn't change anything.


10 million kilometers for 400 cars works out to an average of only 25,000 kilometers, or about 15,000 miles per car. It really doesn't show much with regard to long term, 100k+ miles, durability.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

voip-ninja said:


> I thought we were talking about ICE programs and how that was the standard.
> 
> Musk takes risks. As I said previously, he has an enormous incentive to take some gambles and it also demonstrates that he has a lot of confidence in his EV engineers which are considered to be some of, if not the very best, on the planet.
> 
> ICE manufacturers have almost zero incentive to take risks in their EV programs. If anything they'd be happy if they didn't need to compete in the EV space and could just continue building ICE for the next 100 yrs.


I think the competition from Tesla has forced the whole automotive industry to step up their game. In the case of the Germans, it has been an emphasis on performance. I really don't think their cars would have improved their acceleration anywhere near as much as they have in the last 5 to 8 years, if it wasn't for Teslas kicking their butts in that metric.

Pretty much all car manufacturers seem to have stepped up the development speed of various driver aids and safety systems, and also display screens and user interfaces. Without Tesla, I think this development would have been much, much slower.

The Tesla Model 3 may not be a BMW 3 series killer, although it's definitely wounded it, but Tesla has caused a paradigm shift in the entire car manufacturing industry.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

acoste said:


> "Another good example is the long-term durability evaluation of a car. When I discussed it with Elon, I told him our engineers' calculations led to at least a million equivalent miles of driving required before launching the car - a six-month phase required to discover potential weaknesses and fix them. My request was actually very limited in regards to the industry practices: *German manufacturers don't release a car that has not clocked 10 million kilometers and two winters.* Elon, in his customary laconic way, answered: "OK, do it. But we are not delaying the launch date for it&#8230; - But we might encounter issues that will require some modifications of the production models&#8230; - Yeah, I know, but we will make the changes afterward if we have to&#8230; - Even if it involves recalling some cars? - Yes. And for the rest, we will adjust by pushing some OTA upgrades (Tesla's main software is maintained and upgraded remotely on a regular basis, just like a PC)."
> 
> https://electrek.co/2020/07/13/tesla-former-vp-quality-explains-issues/


Yikes hopefully other auto manufacturers will not deviate from their proven release process just because Tesla does it.

And honest Tesla owners really need to demand Tesla not use them as experiments and guinea pigs.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> Yikes hopefully other auto manufacturers will not deviate from their proven release process just because Tesla does it.
> 
> And honest Tesla owners really need to demand Tesla not use them as experiments and guinea pigs.


Well we don't know the details on what ICE manufacturers actually do other than some anecdotal information being provided by a highly biased individual.

My experience is consumers vote with their wallets. Tax incentives on Tesla are pretty much gone and people are still buying them because they feel they are getting a superior product for the money compared to other cars on the market.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> Well we don't know the details on what ICE manufacturers actually do other than some anecdotal information being provided by a highly biased individual.
> 
> My experience is consumers vote with their wallets. Tax incentives on Tesla are pretty much gone and people are still buying them because they feel they are getting a superior product for the money compared to other cars on the market.


There are not many Model Y's on local roads, so it is unclear how Y is ramping up in US/Tesla home turf.

Tesla store folks say next batches of Y are heading overseas, with a few canceled orders for immediate delivery, or at least 6-8 weeks wait.

The main market of new customers appears to be China, but as usual Tesla does not break down volume by market segments, so it is hard to tell.

From acoste's link of Model S/3 wheels falling off, and Munro saying Y starts to see improvement of assembly quality/design/practice, it appears prudent to at least go with Y(including trade S/3/X for Y if possible), or wait for next model.


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## acoste (Nov 27, 2011)

New police car crash: 
https://twitter.com/Arizona_DPS/status/1283120851399798784


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

acoste said:


> New police car crash:
> https://twitter.com/Arizona_DPS/status/1283120851399798784


The idiot had the car on autopilot which is not designed to save you from your own stupidity. Perhaps you'd argue that a bmw with radar assisted cruise and auto steer would have fared better.


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## voip-ninja (Mar 22, 2012)

namelessman said:


> There are not many Model Y's on local roads, so it is unclear how Y is ramping up in US/Tesla home turf.
> 
> Tesla store folks say next batches of Y are heading overseas, with a few canceled orders for immediate delivery, or at least 6-8 weeks wait.
> 
> ...


I will consider a Y when they have been in production for at least two years since Tesla always slips in a lot of revised parts in the first year or two of production.

Also likely won't purchase until air suspension is available.

Model Y volume is low due to COVID lots of preorders still waiting on cars. You made similar claims about lack of demand on Model 3 a year ago when tax credits were expiring yet somehow Tesla selling every one they can build.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

voip-ninja said:


> You made similar claims about lack of demand on Model 3 a year ago when tax credits were expiring yet somehow Tesla selling every one they can build.


The prediction did materialize with Tesla Model 3 Jan/Feb 2019 US volume dropped to 6k, while China/Europe sales had not yet picked up at the time. 

That was also a great time to double down on TSLA when it dropped 50%.:thumbup:


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## wco81 (Sep 17, 2005)

That's why BMW is rushing out iNext and also an EV version of the 4 series.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

GregD said:


> Is the Tesla Model 3 the BMW 3 series killer? Following are the numbers for the U.S. since the Model 3 came out. Model 3 sales have gone up every year while 3/4 series sales have gone down every year. For 2020, Model 3 sales were more than triple 3/4 series sales. You can make your own determination as to whether that's a killing or not.
> 
> Tesla Model 3 sales in the U.S. for the last 4 years.
> 2017 1,770
> ...


Tesla Brand Global sales less than 500,000 units in 2020.

BMW Brand USA only Sales

2017 305,685
2018 311,014
2019 324,825
2020 280,290

No way to tell how many 3 series buyers went to other BMW series like the SUV's, larger sedans, "M" cars, SUV's, Sports, Audi, Mercedes Benz, Lexus, Jaguar etc VS going to the Tesla 3. My 3 series became a few 4 series which became a Z4 M40i for example.

BMW Brand Global sales
2017 1,706,020
2018 2,125,026
2019 2,168,516
2020 2,028,659

BMW & MB over the period have both had record sales growth with them trading the # 1 - 2 Luxury manufacturer place back & forth.


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Considering the facts that the global automotive market evaporated in 2020 ... that BMW shuttered its factories ... that the 540 I'd ordered in December finally arrived in May ... that BMW completely pulled the plug on Euro delivery ... that dealerships were turned into by-appointment-only galleries ... and that for several models, they just cancelled the remaining production for the 2020 MY and went straight to the 2021's ... I'm actually pleasantly surprised they sold as many units as they did.

It's going to bee fascinating to watch the industry evolve over the next decade, with Biden, California and others mandating the end of ICE and with GM's announcement. Tesla has a head start, but how many repeat customers will they get? The early adapters have had their Virtue-Signalling Moment, and some have already returned tot he blau mitt weiss. And one of the Tesla selling points (that the cars will last a very long time without becoming obsolete or breaking) will work against them. If you a True Believer you're going to drive your Elon-mobile for a quarter million miles, rather than needing that new car smell every 3 to 5 years.

Keeping your ride longer means fewer new units being sold, and fewer CPO sales to support your infrastructure and your bottom line. Fewer parts that wear out means less cash flow from your parts department (though it also means less warehousing and logistics cost). Musk Man's profits will come from conquest sales, but once Tesla owns 20% of the market share, will sales dry up? How do you keep the consumers' interest when you've become yesterday's news? When you have become mainstream instead of radical?

There will always be folks who want a nicer interior than Tesla delivers, better fit and finish, more creature comforts, better color palette, more bespoke options, and something sexy to impress the folks at the Country Club. Early adopters will move away from Tesla and into something more enticing, be that a Taycan or a yet-to-be unveiled model from BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar or the like. And sooner or later, Elon will lose interest and find new dragons to slay.


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## wco81 (Sep 17, 2005)

That's definitely true, I want something nicer than Tesla interiors and build quality, which are reportedly poor.

But I'm not too impressed with the interior materials in my X3 lease either.

When my lease ends this summer, I will be taking a good hard look at an EV. Maybe the Q4 e-Tron if Audi delivers as promised.

Virtue signaling? A lot of EVs are in the same price range as the 3 and 4 series and the X1-X5 series. And they will be cheaper to operate, at least fuel-wise.

If the premium marques deliver on the promise, you will get better interiors and build quality than Tesla. But they're all transitioning aggressively, including BMW, because it's not just CA mandating new cars will only be EVs in 15 years. I believe several EU nations have said the same thing. UK may even move it to 2030. So it affects a lot of target markets for BMW, Audi, Mercedes, etc.


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## quackbury (Dec 17, 2005)

Yes, virtue signaling. Out of the first 10 of my friends, co-workers and clients who got Tesla's, 8 of them wanted to save the world. There's nothing wrong with that, but to keep the momentum going, Elon needs to bring in orders from less "green" customers. The dual motors target the performance junkies. But for those of us of a certain age who want creature comforts? Of folks who are dreaming of the day when they can once again take long road trips? Nothing to see here, folks.

And I don't think there are many BMW owners who have "cheaper to operate, at least fuel-wise" high on their list of priorities. BMW tried and failed to sell diesels in the US, but they have a steady stream of customers queued up for M550's, M340's, X3M's, M2's, M3's, and X7's.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The new Model interior is quite interesting, although the U-shaped steering wheel may not work like previous one in spirited driving. 

There was also supposedly a Model S/X liquidation sales recently, and some friend mentioned a 400-mile range pre-facelift Model S AWD(?) that used to go for $120k years ago is on sale for $60k brand new. 

If those numbers are accurate then it will depress resale value of 3-year-old 30k-45k miles(e.g.) Model S further.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

Obviously to-date the best product from Tesla is still TSLA.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

Tesla is production constrained when it comes to how many cars it can produce and sell. Until 2020, they only had the one factory in Fremont making cars. The China factory finally got started in 2020, but it takes a while to ramp up to full production. That said, Tesla should have adequate capacity to produce about 900k to a million vehicles in 2021. 2022 should bring a big jump in production as the Texas and Berlin factories come on line. Depending on how many problems Tesla has in that endeavor, it will likely produce 1.3 to 2 million vehicles in 2022.

I'm sure that many people have bought Teslas for the "green" reason, but I think it's safe to say that the proportion has been decreasing with the introduction of the Model 3 and Model Y. For myself, the "green" aspect had nothing to do with my decision to buy a Model 3 a couple of years ago. 31k miles on, I'm very pleased with my purchase.


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## bear-avhistory (Nov 18, 2006)

Two thing. My home built Cobra has better panel fit & paint than some Tesla's in the neighborhood.

Second. The major manufactures of up market cars are building their EV's with real interiors not an off driver center iPad & a steering wheel settling in barren landscape

I would shoot myself before I spent $90 to $100K on one.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

bear-avhistory said:


> Two thing. My home built Cobra has better panel fit & paint than some Tesla's in the neighborhood.
> 
> Second. The major manufactures of up market cars are building their EV's with real interiors not an off driver center iPad & a steering wheel settling in barren landscape
> 
> I would shoot myself before I spent $90 to $100K on one.


Some Teslas have had very poor panel fit and paint, some Teslas have had very good panel fit and paint. My Tesla came with a fair panel fit and good paint, and a couple of adjustments by the service center got the panel fit up to good. Overall, I think Tesla has been getting better, but they still need to improve in this regard; they're closer to a typical American car than a typical German car, and they have even further to go to match Toyota.

As for the interior, that is a matter of personal preference. Personally, I've been pretty turned off by most modern luxury car interiors where they have like 100 buttons, knobs, and controls scattered all over the place, with some functions controlled by a touch screen in addition. I really appreciate the clean user interface presented by the Tesla with almost all functions located on the center screen and voice control that really works for most as well.

As for the look of the interior, do you like Scandinavian or Baroque furniture? Personally, I find the clean, simple look of the Teslas quite nice, but I know many people such as yourself don't. Different strokes for different folks. One note, the more upscale Tesla Model S and Model X do have a separate dash screen directly in front of the driver, like most conventional cars, in addition to the main center screen.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

The Model S/X customer order pages now show the new U-shaped steering wheel, a Tesla sales said the facelift units will be shipped after Q1. 

The question is if this new steering yoke can go lock to lock without the hands crossing, my guess is no as that requires new steering hardware with tight steering ratios(will find out).


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The Model S/X customer order pages now show the new U-shaped steering wheel, a Tesla sales said the facelift units will be shipped after Q1.
> 
> The question is if this new steering yoke can go lock to lock without the hands crossing, my guess is no as that requires new steering hardware with tight steering ratios(will find out).


I would hope that the steering would be speed adaptive and wouldn't require turning it more than about 90 degrees in either direction. They would need something similar to the BMW Active Steering system to accomplish this. Otherwise, it would be uncomfortable and awkward to use. If they do it right, it could be very nice; if they don't, it would suck.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I would hope that the steering would be speed adaptive and wouldn't require turning it more than about 90 degrees in either direction. They would need something similar to the BMW Active Steering system to accomplish this. Otherwise, it would be uncomfortable and awkward to use. If they do it right, it could be very nice; if they don't, it would suck.


The estimated delivery dates for facelift units will be April according to Tesla sales, so it will a few months of wait to find out.

In general if the goal is FSD/car-riding fleet then it will make sense to have steering yoke without active steering-like capabilities, since spirited driving is not the focus.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

So it looks like new Model S/X steering is drive-by-wire without direct steering column feedback.

While F30/BMW enthusiasts are adamant about BMW's EPS implementation, Tesla will eliminate direct feedback completely, and drivers need to rely on electronics 100%.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> So it looks like new Model S/X steering is drive-by-wire without direct steering column feedback.
> 
> While F30/BMW enthusiasts are adamant about BMW's EPS implementation, Tesla will eliminate direct feedback completely, and drivers need to rely on electronics 100%.


I question the assertions of the guy in the video. He talks about one of the reasons for going to drive by wire is to make the cars compatible with right hand drive, but Tesla has already done that with their cars without going to drive by wire. Is there any reason we should trust that this guy knows what he's talking about?

I'd actually be a little surprised if NHTSA and the various other government automotive groups around the world would allow a true drive by wire steering system in a car today. It's a pretty big jump.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> The estimated delivery dates for facelift units will be April according to Tesla sales, so it will a few months of wait to find out.
> 
> In general if the goal is FSD/car-riding fleet then it will make sense to have steering yoke without active steering-like capabilities, since spirited driving is not the focus.


Tesla is showing April for the Model X and March for the Model S.

Done properly, I think a steering yoke could be an improvement for spirited driving.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> Tesla is showing April for the Model X and March for the Model S.
> 
> Done properly, I think a steering yoke could be an improvement for spirited driving.


Yes it will be of great interest to try Tesla's steering yoke in person. 

Regardless if there is improvement for spirited driving or not for facelift Model 3/Y, the Model 3/X steering now looks dated and not state-of-the-art anymore.


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## namelessman (Dec 23, 2004)

GregD said:


> I'd actually be a little surprised if NHTSA and the various other government automotive groups around the world would allow a true drive by wire steering system in a car today. It's a pretty big jump.


Is Infiniti Q5 already a DBW?


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## wco81 (Sep 17, 2005)

I think Tesla needed a redesign more than a facelift with a new steering wheel.

Seems to me the basic S design is almost 10 years old by now? X isn't as old but it's also based on the S design language.

Of course the 3 and Y are derived from the S and X.

They're supposedly working on a new version of the Roadster as well.


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## GregD (Feb 5, 2003)

namelessman said:


> Is Infiniti Q5 already a DBW?


It's apparently an option on the Infiniti Q50 and Q60. I didn't know about that, so I read up on it a little bit. There is a steering column with a mechanical connection, but there's a clutch in the column that allows the steering wheel to be mechanically decoupled from the steering rack. It sounds like being decoupled is the norm and the steering functions in a true drive by wire mode. The clutch only engages if the steering system detects some kind of problem or if there is no power to the steering system. I wonder if Tesla will use a system like BMW's or Infiniti's or something else.

Here's a short video about the system.


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