# Jon Shafer's MY 2014 Lease Matrix for July



## Jon Shafer (Dec 15, 2001)

Download the printable .pdf.


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## luvdabass (Jan 26, 2013)

54% for the AH3?
Yikes.
I'm glad I signed already.
Picking up at the Welt on Monday! woot!


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## avidude (Oct 20, 2007)

Ouch! 550 drops 4%

Jon, thanks for providing the updated program.

What is the base mf?


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## Jon Shafer (Dec 15, 2001)

avidude said:


> Ouch! 550 drops 4%
> 
> Jon, thanks for providing the updated program.
> 
> What is the base mf?


Sorry, dealer buy rates are closely held and deemed by the manufacturer as confidential.

No longer allowed to post money factors.


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## GreenLantern (Mar 30, 2013)

Thanks for posting these, as always, Jon!


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## tturedraider (Nov 11, 2005)

avidude said:


> What is the base mf?





Jon Shafer said:


> Sorry, dealer buy rates are closely held and deemed by the manufacturer as confidential.
> 
> No longer allowed to post money factors.


True as that may be it's not hard to come up with the buy rate, folks. Subtract 0.0004 from whatever rate your dealer initially offers you.


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## m3m3m3 (Feb 23, 2006)

Thanks Jon for posting!!! 

Did the MY 2013 residuals change in July?


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## ptran (Dec 31, 2012)

Thanks for the matrix Jon- as always it's extremely helpful! Does the $1k build out credit for the 328i also apply to 2014's?


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## tsoc88 (Jun 27, 2007)

Jon Shafer said:


> Download the printable .pdf.


Is it correct to assume these are for 12K miles/year?


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## TN_3 (Oct 4, 2007)

luvdabass said:


> 54% for the AH3?
> Yikes.
> I'm glad I signed already.
> Picking up at the Welt on Monday! woot!


I second that...yikes indeed. So much for the killer deal AH3s used to be...


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## BimmerBahn (Nov 24, 2005)

tsoc88 said:


> Is it correct to assume these are for 12K miles/year?


The RV shown has been based on 15K/year in the past....add two points for 12K, one more on top of that for 10K.

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## Jon Shafer (Dec 15, 2001)

ptran said:


> Thanks for the matrix Jon- as always it's extremely helpful! Does the $1k build out credit for the 328i also apply to 2014's?


"Build Out": the period of time at the end of a production run when the manufacturer provides incentives to make sure dealer inventories are minimized to make room for the new updated product coming from the factory.



m3m3m3 said:


> Thanks Jon for posting!!!
> 
> Did the MY 2013 residuals change in July?


Indeed, there are changes.


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## MustGoFast (Dec 24, 2007)

avidude said:


> Ouch! 550 drops 4%
> 
> Jon, thanks for providing the updated program.
> 
> What is the base mf?


Check your PM. I sent you the July baserate for the 550.


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## EDF30 (Mar 3, 2012)

TN_3 said:


> I second that...yikes indeed. So much for the killer deal AH3s used to be...


No kidding, I just did a quick calculation and without the eco credit plus lower residuals my AH3 lease would be $200 more per month and thats with ED invoice plus 1k and max MSDs :yikes::yikes::yikes:

I guess they sold enough Hybrids in 2013 to meet their goals so the party is over. I don't see them selling many in 2014 if these numbers don't change. Actually the numbers seem to be worse for almost all the models.


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## bennett64 (Mar 9, 2006)

EDF30 said:


> No kidding, I just did a quick calculation and without the eco credit plus lower residuals my AH3 lease would be $200 more per month and thats with ED invoice plus 1k and max MSDs :yikes::yikes::yikes:
> 
> I guess they sold enough Hybrids in 2013 to meet their goals so the party is over. I don't see them selling many in 2014 if these numbers don't change. Actually the numbers seem to be worse for almost all the models.


No kidding. I just got caught having ordered for August 12 ED based on the "advice" from my CA that the eco credit would most likely remain. Now the same car will cost nearly $7200 over a 36 month lease?! #hosed


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## Weaselboy (Jul 7, 2002)

tsoc88 said:


> Is it correct to assume these are for 12K miles/year?


In the past these have always been for 15k. 12k would be a plus 2% RV I believe.


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## TN_3 (Oct 4, 2007)

EDF30 said:


> No kidding, I just did a quick calculation and without the eco credit plus lower residuals my AH3 lease would be $200 more per month and thats with ED invoice plus 1k and max MSDs :yikes::yikes::yikes:
> 
> I guess they sold enough Hybrids in 2013 to meet their goals so the party is over. I don't see them selling many in 2014 if these numbers don't change. Actually the numbers seem to be worse for almost all the models.


Are we assuming the EcoCredit is gone? If you go on the BMWUSA site, you will see they list the $500 loyalty, plus a $1000 build out credit, and the $3500 EcoCredit for the 2013. I wonder what applies to the 2014. Not saying it makes the deal as good as it was, just that it might not be as big of a gap as we think.


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## EDF30 (Mar 3, 2012)

bennett64 said:


> No kidding. I just got caught having ordered for August 12 ED based on the "advice" from my CA that the eco credit would most likely remain. Now the same car will cost nearly $7200 over a 36 month lease?! #hosed


Thats a bummer, I would seriously think about cancelling the order if I was in your shoes, if you are already locked in for your trip/airfare/hotels etc just rent a car. You could also ask CA to find you a 2013 AH3 on a lot and still get a good deal without ED. I think BMW is assuming demand for the new 4 series plus 2014 MY will carry them through next few months but based on history they will need to bring back eco credits and better residuals across the lineupif they want to stay on top of MB.


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## lezam (Apr 24, 2013)

EDF30 said:


> Thats a bummer, I would seriously think about cancelling the order if I was in your shoes, if you are already locked in for your trip/airfare/hotels etc just rent a car. You could also ask CA to find you a 2013 AH3 on a lot and still get a good deal without ED. I think BMW is assuming demand for the new 4 series plus 2014 MY will carry them through next few months but based on history they will need to bring back eco credits and better residuals across the lineupif they want to stay on top of MB.


I'd say to just go for a 335 at this point. The huge difference in price just isn't worth it


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## EDF30 (Mar 3, 2012)

lezam said:


> I'd say to just go for a 335 at this point. The huge difference in price just isn't worth it


I agree, but there are 188 2013 AH3s out there on lots right now for which you could most likely negotiate a pretty sweet deal.

http://www.cars.com/for-sale/search...nsTypeId=&kw=&kwm=ANY&ldId=&rpp=50&slrTypeId=


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## lezam (Apr 24, 2013)

EDF30 said:


> I agree, but there are 188 2013 AH3s out there on lots right now for which you could most likely negotiate a pretty sweet deal.
> 
> http://www.cars.com/for-sale/search...nsTypeId=&kw=&kwm=ANY&ldId=&rpp=50&slrTypeId=


I think it'd be cheaper to do an 335 ED, than a AH3 off the lot, no?


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## eichlerbimmer (May 17, 2013)

Jon Shafer said:


> "Build Out": the period of time at the end of a production run when the manufacturer provides incentives to make sure dealer inventories are minimized to make room for the new updated product coming from the factory.
> 
> Can the Build Out be used when picking up a car this month that was ordered in May, while still using the mf & residual that was in effect in May?


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## Ovella (Jul 30, 2008)

eichlerbimmer said:


> Can the Build Out be used when picking up a car this month that was ordered in May, while still using the mf & residual that was in effect in May?


You can't combine various months rates and incentives.


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## EDF30 (Mar 3, 2012)

lezam said:


> I think it'd be cheaper to do an 335 ED, than a AH3 off the lot, no?


Could be but I know others here like SamS got $10,000 off MSRP on non ED AH3s, which is about the same discount I got with ED, not sure if they custom ordered or bought existing inventory.


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## E92Carrera (Aug 6, 2007)

bennett64 said:


> No kidding. I just got caught having ordered for August 12 ED based on the "advice" from my CA that the eco credit would most likely remain. Now the same car will cost nearly $7200 over a 36 month lease?! #hosed


Tell me about it, same situation I'm in. I'm going to switch to 335i, hope I can still use my reserved delivery date. :thumbdwn:


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## Yay-Z (Aug 13, 2007)

Ouch! 


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## m3m3m3 (Feb 23, 2006)

Jon Shafer said:


> "Build Out": the period of time at the end of a production run when the manufacturer provides incentives to make sure dealer inventories are minimized to make room for the new updated product coming from the factory.
> 
> Indeed, there are changes.


Jon,

Is there a build out credit for all 2013 models?

And if you have a chance, could you post the July MY2013 residuals? I'm most interested in the M5

Thanks!!


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## EDF30 (Mar 3, 2012)

E92Carrera said:


> Tell me about it, same situation I'm in. I'm going to switch to 335i, hope I can still use my reserved delivery date. :thumbdwn:


Tough call, reading the thread linked below makes me wonder if this suspension of eco credit is just temporary, to help move 2013 inventory, and maybe BMW will activate eco credits next month or two. :dunno:

http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=701715


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## E92Carrera (Aug 6, 2007)

EDF30 said:


> Tough call, reading the thread linked below makes me wonder if this suspension of eco credit is just temporary, to help move 2013 inventory, and maybe BMW will activate eco credits next month or two. :dunno:
> 
> http://www.bimmerfest.com/forums/showthread.php?t=701715


I agree, but right now the risk is too great to take the chance. I honestly can't wait until august because my order would already be built for my august delivery and then I'd he SOL if there was not rebate. I guess it is what it is.

Definitely not getting a car when the new MY comes out ever again too many variables. Which is probably common sense but I didn't think the AH3 would take that big of a hit.

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## openwheelracing (Aug 1, 2008)

I am also halting my ED plans. Definitely not leasing with these rates.


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## [email protected] BMW (Aug 2, 2010)

Been on the phone with bmw NA last couple of days... Trying to get to bottom of this. It's really affecting our business.


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## thegandalf (Sep 8, 2012)

[email protected] BMW said:


> Been on the phone with bmw NA last couple of days... Trying to get to bottom of this. It's really affecting our business.


 Understand the need to push the inventory of MY13 (build out credit), but stopping the eco credits + the big drops on residuals is a big turnoff... I am (was) planning to place my order next week (finally) but these numbers are chilling... I guess they will improve somewhat in the next couple of months, but can I, should I risk it?

Does BMWNA feel like the economic outlook is so far improved that they can now be more aggressive? Have their sales being so good that they no longer need to sweeten their deals so much?

Just wondering...


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## BimmerBahn (Nov 24, 2005)

thegandalf said:


> Understand the need to push the inventory of MY13 (build out credit), but stopping the eco credits + the big drops on residuals is a big turnoff... I am (was) planning to place my order next week (finally) but these numbers are chilling... I guess they will improve somewhat in the next couple of months, but can I, should I risk it?


Agree on the EcoCredit, but the MY14 RV drop seems consistent with what went down last year... MY13's were basically where MY14's are today and crept up as the year went on.

Hope the EcoCredit comes back before I sign in Sept for the ride. That's a lot of Weiß bier I won't be able to drink 

Regards,


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## skier (Oct 19, 2004)

BMW had several record breaking months in a row, seems to me they're tasting the waters if pulled back incentives can sustain the sales.


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## SamS (Jan 17, 2011)

EDF30 said:


> Could be but I know others here like SamS got $10,000 off MSRP on non ED AH3s, which is about the same discount I got with ED, not sure if they custom ordered or bought existing inventory.


Yes, this is true. I custom ordered my AH3, sticker was $65K. I had good timing, $3500 Eco-Credit, $1000 USAA, $750 Loyalty, $1000 Holiday Cash, and the other $3700 was my dealer will to go to ~$1000K over invoice.

Although I like the AH3, and given that I got a good deal (trade in won't hurt too bad) and there isn't much incentive on a 2014 AH3s (yet), I'd like to move to a 2014 535d. However, it with no Eco-Credit on this modelat this time, there is not a good enough financial incentive for me to make the jump, yet.


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## ptran (Dec 31, 2012)

Just curious and probably stupid question,, but I placed my ED 328i order in June for August delivery and my CA said it'll probably be a MY2014 then. Was it at all possible to lock in June rates for a 328i ED in August for a MY2014? Or was this impossible since any rates for MY2014 3 series sedans weren't released yet?


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## openwheelracing (Aug 1, 2008)

My understanding is no. Cannot lock 2013 model rates for 2014 model. 

I hope I am wrong though..


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## E92Carrera (Aug 6, 2007)

openwheelracing said:


> My understanding is no. Cannot lock 2013 model rates for 2014 model.
> 
> I hope I am wrong though..


You can't lock rates for a 2014 with 2013 rates. So open wheel, you are unfortunately for many of us, correct.


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## Jon Shafer (Dec 15, 2001)

ptran said:


> Just curious and probably stupid question,, but I placed my ED 328i order in June for August delivery and my CA said it'll probably be a MY2014 then. Was it at all possible to lock in June rates for a 328i ED in August for a MY2014? Or waps this impossible since any rates for MY2014 3 series sedans weren't released yet?


If your CA was on top of it he could have anticipated this and secured the lock if you are talking about a retail rate (not a lease).


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## Ace535i (Jan 28, 2012)

Jon Shafer said:


> Download the printable .pdf.


No cash incentives for July as were in June?


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